Nancy Pelosi 2.0?

In September we covered some of the controversies about the re-election of Nancy Pelosi, as Speaker of the House, should the Democrats take the House, which they have now done. And, the furor over whether Pelosi is too old, at 78 years-old to lead, in this fractious effort has made tongues wag all over the country: Is she progressive enough? Can she impeach President Trump? Is she too much of a centrist?

As previously noted, the GOP stalwart, Newt Gingrich, who was a formidable Speaker of the House, in his time, told an interviewer that she had been in “this business forever” and that she would win, and that her contacts, and toughness were a real factor in the role. In other words, a worthy foe.

Some Dems say that she might not be the person to break the gridlock in Congress, a monumental effort for anyone, but others are pointing out that she is not the new Moses, ready to lead the Dems into the Promised Land.

“Pelosi met with Problem Solvers Democrats last week after they sent her a letter “strongly” encouraging her to embrace their proposals to “Break the Gridlock.” Pelosi described the meeting as “positive and constructive” and credited members for coming forward “with valuable solutions” to restore the House “as the great marketplace of ideas our founders intended, “said Politico.com

Pelosi did score some major reversals, notably the young Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said in a tweet, "All the challenges to Leader Pelosi are coming from her right, in an apparent effort to make the party even more conservative and bent toward corporate interests. Hard pass," the New York Democrat said. "So long as Leader Pelosi remains the most progressive candidate for Speaker, she can count on my support."

Perhaps, the young lawmaker was realizing that support from an established leader, and one who supports female lawmakers was worth the risk. Learning the ropes, and who can support you, is the first rule on Capitol Hill, and it looks like she is learning fast.

Ocasio-Cortez also took a strong stand on the issues, knowing that she is going to have to face them, and she said: “I hope that we can move swiftly to conclude this discussion about party positions, so that we can spend more time discussing party priorities: voting rights, healthcare, wages, climate change, housing, cannabis legalization, good jobs, etc."

As Gingrich exclaimed, “I would say, first of all, Nancy Pelosi is a very smart, very tough person who has earned her position by just brute hard work, by applying her intelligence and by applying a network that has sustained her for a long time,” and he also added, that “Anybody who thinks they’re going to outmanoeuvre her is up against somebody who has literally spent her lifetime — she’s been in this business forever.”

Moving in concert is a 9-member group of Democrats who Politico.com reported on Friday that, “Democratic members of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus are warning House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) she won't win their votes for speaker if she doesn’t back their proposed rules changes.”

“We will only vote for a speaker candidate who supports ‘Break the Gridlock’ rules changes.”

Facing another front Pelosi also is “working to counter opposition from another group of Democrats who gathered 16 signatures from members and members-elect pledging to oppose her for speaker in a Jan. 3 floor vote.”

Using those skills that Gingrich identified she is managing to take free reign to wrangle, deal and even wheel --- case in point: “Her most prominent possible challenger -- Rep. Marcia Fudge of Ohio -- decided against running and instead endorsed Pelosi. The California Democrat also secured the backing of at least one other Democrat who had previously said he'd support new leadership.”

Pelosi offered to make her chairwoman of the House Administration Subcommittee on Elections previously a defunct position. Checkmate.

Continuing the dance, she had some good news: Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.), endorsed her on Wednesday after Pelosi “pledged to prioritize an infrastructure bill and legislation to open Medicare to people over the age of 50. Higgins had criticized the Democratic leader for months, vowing repeatedly to vote against her in the new Congress.

“Some will ask why I have changed my position. The answer is simple: I took a principled stand on issues of vital importance not only to my constituents in western New York but also to more than 300 million Americans whose lives can be improved by progress in these areas,” Higgins said in a statement.

Money might not bring you love, but it can help in a hotly contested election and the midterms showed that it can help your team win.

“Pelosi was also far-and-away the most prolific fundraiser for the Democrats this cycle, bringing in more than $137 million for the party’s campaign arm, vulnerable incumbents and first-time candidates hoping to flip GOP seats in the most hotly contested races,” said the Hill in its coverage.

Notably, those that she helped did not sign the insurgent letter, showing that they know who helped butter their bread to victory.

Going back to the Gingrich statement, “The slow erosion of opposition has highlighted the sheer power — and many tentacles — of the Pelosi machine, which is churning at full throttle heading into the closed-door Democratic leadership elections, scheduled for Nov. 28.”

Chipping away at the opposition, like Dominoes, seems to be the hallmark of Pelosi and as the Hill noted: “Higgins, for instance, wanted Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), a senior CBC member, to launch a leadership bid. Yet Bass announced her support for Pelosi late last week — a move that influenced Higgins’s decision to back Pelosi.”

What do voters think” “A new poll, conducted after the midterm elections by Politico and Morning Consult, found that 48 percent of Democratic voters back Pelosi’s Speakership ambitions, versus 22 percent who oppose her ascension.”

One area of concern for many that oppose her is to impeach the president, yet Pelosi knows that it would require at least 20 votes from GOP members of the House, an unlikely event with party solidarity, but also that holding Trump to the checks and balances, outlined in the Constitution, is a better prospect, than trying to win over Republican lawmakers, who often hold their nose, and give at least outward support for the embattled Trump.

Taking to task the moderate Republicans can help achieve a neutralizing effect that a political veteran, like Pelosi than a neophyte, no matter how earnest, or a benchwarmer, who hasn’t been in the game.

With the rebuke of Chief Justice Roberts to the president over his criticism of an “Obama” judge, this is an opening to garner support among those same moderates.

In January, the results will be seen, and most observers, especially those inside the Beltway, are betting on Nancy.

Update: The Hill reported that "House Democrats voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to nominate Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to the Speakership in a 203-32 vote.

The outcome was no surprise despite an entrenched rebellion from insurgent lawmakers who want changes to Democratic leadership. Pelosi was running uncontested and enjoys widespread support within the liberal-heavy caucus she’s led since 2003.

The 32 votes against her were fewer than the 63 votes won in a 2016 contest for minority leader by Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who ran against Pelosi at the time.

Still, Pelosi faces a tougher test the first week of January, when the full House meets to choose the Speaker in a public vote requiring a majority of the entire voting chamber.

Pelosi can not afford 32 Democratic votes against her in that contest, though she has weeks to convince some of her opponents to either vote for her on the floor or vote present — reducing the total number of votes needed for victory."

Fending off opposition created an environment where she not only gained the nomination, but also, perhaps due to advancing age, and a lifetime of achievement, Pelosi agreed to pretty much a four-year term, when she reaches her early 80's, gaining more support. But, also in a display of strength in an Oval office meeting with Trump, she showed her mettle by challenging him on the facts of immigration, and told him point blank that getting $5 million dollars to build his, by now, infamous wall, would never happen.  Checkmate.

Updated 15 December 2018 - 2:56 CT

New lawmakers show diversity and fresh faces

Tuesday’s midterm election proved the pollsters correct, for once, said many, and gave the House to the Democrats, but it also gave a number of firsts, one being a huge voter turnout among the young, and secondly a handful of women that were minority women, of color, and of religion. And, one outlier in the form of the unresolved gubernatorial election in Georgia, where Stacy Abrams, is less than a sliver away from a recount, and in a state where voter suppression ruled, and where her opponent, as secretary, of state that there were 25,000 ballots that had not been counted.

One big surprise was the defeat of Joe Donnelly, in Indiana to Mike Braun, 43.4 to 52.6, for the Senate, considering that he was one of the most conservative Democrats on the HIll; and Ted Cruz fending off a very strong lead from Beto O’Rourke  and the recount in the Florida Senate, where Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum was defeated by DeSantis in an election that was marred by racial animus, with a razor thin victory for Desantis with 49.6 versus, 49.2 for Gillum.

Adding to the mix was the victory on the Cook County Board of Commissioners for an openly gay man, Kevin Morrison, formerly a full-time field organizer for Hillary Clinton, and who seemed to have learned from that experience by knocking on doors, and emphasizing “bread and butter” issues such as health care, and property taxes strategically reached out to working class people.

Kevin Morrison

Welcome news for many was the defeat of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the union busting arch conservative who lost to Tony Evers, by 31,000 votes, and who scaled back Obama era environmental protections.

While veteran lawmaker Nancy Pelosi is poised to resume her role as Speaker of the House, there is also the calls for impeachment by the party’s radical left, and those on the right that want to see democratic governance, and that now faces the absence of Jeff Sessions as attorney general, and an acting AG that says he will not recuse himself from the Mueller investigation, and which is going to give a real push to any moderate efforts that Pelosi may want and to maneuver with a president that does not want to play fair, at all.

While the appearance of malfeasance on the part of Trump can be debated, its apparent that, as with former FBI director, James Comey, that Trump is afraid of the findings of the Russian collusion with he and his family. But, the road to perdition may not happen, with many of his supporters backing him, to the point of insulation, despite the findings of the special investigation.

The turnout by youth also will galvanize the need for gun control, always a hot button issue, with seemingly monthly mass shootings, and the need for health care that most exit polls showed to be of great concern, and that was promulgated by the Democrats.

Women seem to have been galvanized by the Women's March and the #MeToo movement have surged ahead, and in unexpected places such as Illinois, where in the 14th Congressional District, a largely white suburban area, with DeKalb, Du Page, and Lake County, as part elected a 32-year-old black woman Lauren Underwood, who defeated a four-term Republican incumbent, Randy Hultgren, showing not only a step toward racial inclusiveness, but that the profile of women elected officials is younger, browner, and blacker than previously thought possible.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sailed in New York, after her supreme primary victory, as the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. And, in another victory for women of color, Jahana Hayes was elected as the first black women representing Connecticut in the House.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Close behind were Veronica Escobar and Sylvia Garcia as the first Latina women to represent Texas in Congress.

Making another historic inroad were Palestinian-American Rashida Tlaib, and Ilhan Omar, a Somali-American as the first Muslim woman elected to Congress, representing Michigan and Minnesota respectively.

While some observers and voters are wary of a divided Congress, this is not an expression of defeat, but more of a battle, say some, and a return to those lessons taught in civics classes across America.  And, Pelosi put it well, when she said, “Today is more than about Democrats and Republicans. It is about restoring the Constitution’s checks and balances to the Trump administration.”

There will be cries for impeachment of Trump, and incoming House Judiciary chairman, Jerry Nadler, said last year: “If you are actually going to remove a president from office, you are in effect nullifying the last election. Certainly the people who voted for him will think you’re nullifying the election. It’s OK to do that. It may be necessary to do that—as long as you have persuaded a sufficient fraction of the president’s former supporters, the people who voted for him, that you have to, that it’s necessary.”

For those that expected the millennials to stay at home, there was a big surprise: In Chicago alone, for those aged 25 to 34, there were 162,000 voters from their ranks, just behind those from 55 to 64, with 142,000 votes reported the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners.

The real clincher was the 18 to 29 year-olds whose votes exceeded 31 percent, the highest in the 25 years of midterm history.

“According to TargetSmart, a political data analysis firm, early voting among 18- to 29-year-olds escalated with a 188 percent increase from 2014. States with particularly close races had an even more intense increase in youth voters in comparison to the 2014 election, with a fivefold increase in states like Texas and Nevada,” reported The Daily Northwestern, the student newspaper at Northwestern University.

Co-president of Northwestern College Democrats Claire Bugos, noted that, “The Marjory Stoneman Douglas students led a revolt against the gun laws we have in this country,” and, “I think that we’ve seen those pockets of youth discontent throughout the presidency. Young people see the midterms as a way to easily have a say in their government, and they’re taking advantage of that.”

In the days, and weeks, ahead, final vote tallies will be had, and then the real work of legislating will begin anew with new faces, as they tackle the challenges of a divided country.

Midterm home stretch: the GOP, voters, and key races

The last of a two-part series that look at NAFTA, tariffs, voters, and the latest polls, and other issues ahead of tomorrow's election day.

Tomorrow, Tuesday, is election day where no matter if you are red, or blue, it’s the time where the rubber meets the road, and where the GOP is pinning its hopes on winning to keep both houses firmly under control - yet, some are saying, even President Trump, has all but conceded the House to the Democrats. But, not resting easy, the Dems are rallying the vote and former President Obama, had gone hoarse last night, stirring the faithful to the polls tomorrow.

As we have seen, the Republicans are saying that America has truly become the better place, restored to glory after the defeat of Hillary, the baseness of Barack and the perils of Pelosi ---- and this is base politics at supreme.

The president, perhaps in a hope to keep his campaign promise tried, like heck to renegotiate NAFTA to protect the American working class, or so he said, but a closer look revealed more of a rebranding than a negotiation.

As usual, he touted it as the BIGGEST, the BEST and much like a carnival barker of old, one had the sense that he was selling snake oil, say some.

“The president touted the new pact — the "U.S., Mexico, Canada agreement, called USMCA" — as keeping a campaign promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he had long described as perhaps the worst deal ever made,” reported CBS News in their coverage, and included some of the following fact checks:

“TRUMP: "This deal will also impose new standards requiring at least 75 percent of every automobile to be made in North America in order to qualify for the privilege of free access to our markets."

THE FACTS: That's true. But as with any such requirement, it could make autos more expensive by discouraging the use of cheaper components from overseas. The same could be true of another provision, requiring at least 40 percent of a car's content to be built where workers earn $16 an hour. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement indeed contains greater worker protections, a tradeoff that could mean higher costs.

The pact, if approved by Congress, will raise the percentage of a car's content that must be built within the trade bloc to 75 percent from 62.5 percent if it is to qualify for duty-free status.”

And, not to be outdone:

“TRUMP, on overcoming the major hitch with Canada: "Dairy was a deal-breaker. And now for our farmers it's, as you know, substantially opened up much more. And I know they can't open it completely. They have farmers also. You know, they can't be overrun. And I fully — and I tell them that. I say, 'Look, I understand you have limits.' But they could do much better."

THE FACTS: That's a fair reading of one of the agreement's most significant changes — though dairy only accounts for about 0.1 percent of U.S.-Canada trade. Canada's tariffs on dairy imports can approach 300 percent. U.S. dairy farmers have also complained about Canadian policies that priced the U.S. out of the market for some dairy powders and allowed Canada to flood world markets with its own versions.

The new agreement would end the discriminatory pricing and restrict Canadian exports of dairy powders. Still, it's in some respects an incremental advance from the Pacific deal that Trump walked away from. It would expand U.S. access to up to 3.75 percent of the Canadian dairy market, versus 3.25 percent in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Above that level, U.S. dairy farmers will still face Canada's punishing tariffs.”

In the exchange of words, we almost lost the respect of an old and valued ally, Canada, and the president said that the Canadian finance minister “hates America,” all of which chips away at the alliance for a name change and as one wag put it, “a few gallons of milk.”

The biggest issue for the GOP and the president is immigration, both legal and illegal as he began in 2015, accusing Mexico of sending rapists and murderers to the U.S. and now this has been extended to Central Americans fleeing poverty and violence, but both the optics and the rhetoric fit the bill, right down to his remark, that if the crowd threw rocks at Mexican border guards, then that “might as well be a gun” and that Americans would return in kind.

Coming on the heels of the separation of children from parents, regrettable but not avoidable, say some, that level of condemnation has died down, and Trump discusses putting some of them in tents, as he has done with the children.

Last week’s announcement to repeal, by executive order, (doubtful say most constitutional experts) to repeal birthright citizenship is to stem the tide of what immigration opponents deem a scam. In true fashion, the president said that the US was the only country to do so, but, in fact, there are 30 countries that do so.

In a rally in South Central Illinois, this past week, the crowds roared at these words.

Economics at play

The White House has touted economic gain, as a result of their economic policies, yet the Tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum - ironic since as Clinton noted during the debates that much of his hotels and resorts were built with Chinese steel.

“The only countries which remain exempted from the steel and aluminum tariffs are Australia and Argentina. Separately, on July 6, the Trump administration set a tariff of 25% on 800 categories of goods imported from China worth $50 billion,” noted the popular online source, Wikipedia

The result announced on Monday was that “China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports are starting to be felt in hundreds of cities with more than 8,000 requests across the country for tariff exemptions. That’s causing some toss-up state Democrats to appeal to those businesses hardest hit by the trade war. The notion is they will somehow fight harder for exemptions,” noted Forbes, and who also said that while not high on voters minds, those Dems in swing states such as Indiana, it might be a dark horse issue to gain even more votes for the Democrats.

Gender and LGBT rights

For the LGBT community Trump’s desire to define gender by the gender at birth, seems, at first blush directed only at transgender people, but is really a trial balloon, to see how far he can go with earmarking other laws, such as the legalization of same-sex marriage.

Young voters

One group galvanized by the Parkland School shootings are young people, those defined as between 18 and 24, and they are, while traditionally less enthused by non-presidential voting are gearing up for an increase.

According to a recent poll by the Harvard Institute of Politics, “Americans under age 30 are 54 percent more likely to vote than they were in our 2014 midterm polling. Forty percent tell us they will vote in the midterms next week. While young voters generally overestimate their actual rate of participation by 7.5 points on average, by almost every measure, we are likely to witness an election for the ages. Compared with 2014, engagement from young Democrats is 24 percentage points higher (30 percent likely to vote in 2014 compared to 54 percent today), and Republicans are quickly closing the gap as they try to match that intensity. Six months ago, 36 percent of Republicans expected to vote, and in the weeks after the hearings to confirm Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, that percentage increased to 43 percent.”

White college educated women, on the left, are predicted to vote 25 percent more than they have in the past, adding even further excitement to this election.

Voting rights and voter suppression

Of deep concern are voting rights, and especially, in Georgia, where in a key race between Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp who also happens to be the Secretary of State, that author Ari Berman called the epicenter of voter suppression, where 1.50 million voters have been purged their roles based on lack of a matched signature -- to other state databases, often as much by a hyphen, or Harry versus Henry, or Al versus Alexander, cutbacks on early voting; often affecting 70 percent of racial minorities, and ethnic minorities, that are often people of color and poll workers who do not understand some surnames.

Confusion reigned where there was a letter sent saying that there was a pending application, but confused those who received it thinking that they could not vote, but they could, at the polling station with proper identification.

We reported earlier about voting rights for those convicted of felonies, here is a recap:

Allowing those that have been previously incarcerated is another sea change affecting the midterms, and this time from those who normally would be denied the right to vote, or would they?

The New York Times recently examined this area of opportunity for the Democrats, which few have thought, about and looked at this scenario: ”If a person is convicted of first-degree murder in the state of Vermont, he or she will retain the right to vote — even while incarcerated. But a person who commits perjury in Mississippi could be permanently barred from casting a ballot there.”

“It is up to states — not the federal government — to say whether convicted felons can vote, and which ones, and when. So the rules for convicted criminals can change, sometimes drastically, from one state to the next.

In the end, elections are about numbers, and numbers of voters, which the Dems need, and which black candidates need, such as Abrams, need, and the chipping of these rights make tomorrow even more of a nail baiter.

Here is a sampling of just a few Key races to watch, for their numbers, among others, are Arizona, a Senate seat held by conservatives by Barry Goldwater and John McCain, is now between “Republican Martha McSally has been pushed to the right and faces a tough race against Democrat Kyrsten Sinema in a state with a growing Latino population,” noted the Guardian.

The 14th House district in Illinois is between Republican Randy Hultgren that holds “Chicago’s sprawling outer suburbs. His challenger Lauren Underwood is a much-touted Democratic recruit who is hoping to pull off an upset against the incumbent in a Republican leaning district that Trump won by 4,” they reported.

Getting a lot of ink is Texas where “Three-term congressman Beto O’Rourke has captured national attention with his challenge to incumbent Ted Cruz. The Texas Democrat still faces an uphill battle in a Republican state where incumbent governor Greg Abbott has an overflowing warchest and no real competition. However, even a close loss would mark O’Rourke as a national figure”, noted the Guardian.

Finally, and most importantly, remember to VOTE, if you have not done so by early voting.

October Jobs report bringing praise and concerns

It wasn’t quite the big-bang theory, but Friday’s Jobs Report for October, seemed to have brought home the bacon, for some economists and observers, eager to see that wages inched up to 3.1 percent - but those are the optimists. For those that saw the glass half empty, it was still not enough to see consumer confidence emboldened, or to prevent the cost of living that will eat up those few cents, that the cheerleaders were so eager to cheer about.

"I’m not seeing anything bad in this jobs report," said Jason Furman, the former head of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama.

"Strong hourly wage growth, even stronger weekly wage growth, higher labor force participation, lower broader underemployment, while job growth bounced back from last month and the unemployment rate remained low," he said on Twitter Friday.

The good news is that the increase is the first to have been seen since April of 2009, but those less sanguine can only say that there was really - after months and years of low wages, no way else was up.

Up, and that was the direction that was taken, with 250,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy, excelled in the bellwether indicator of ADP, that precedes the monthly report from private employers, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that also showed the unemployment rate at 3.7 percent, but as we have noted in the past, this is the marquee, or banner rate, that is less accurate than the broad number which is more accurate.

The BLS release showed this, rate known as u5, as well as broad and defines it as “the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.6 million in October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.”

What we have is a conundrum, of sorts: high unemployment, coupled with lower than desired wages, and against a strong dollar, but all of this aside we have a record streak of 97 straight months, and after the Great Recession of 2008, this is good news, nevertheless, the U.S. economy did grow at an annualized rate of 3.5 percent, and has some business leaders, busting forward in pride, and President Trump and the White House praising the numbers, and taking credit for them.

"Wow! The U.S. added 250,000 Jobs in October - and this was despite the hurricanes. Unemployment at 3.7%. Wages UP! These are incredible numbers. Keep it going, Vote Republican!" tweeted President Trump

It’s as common as snowfall in December that any president will take credit for job growth, but in this case it has really been the prior efforts of former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen and President Obama, that the credit can be attributed to.

The New York Times noted that the “modest monthly wage gain of 0.2 percent nonetheless produced a surprisingly big 3.1 percent jump in annual growth. That was partly because of an unusual drop in pay in October last year after hurricanes. Yet even if the year-over-year increase was somewhat inflated, the underlying trends point to a pickup in wage growth.”

But, will it be enough, seems to be the ever present question over the last several months.

One idea from Boeing is that to help meet production deadlines, they are bringing back on a temporary basis, retired employees, at its plant outside Seattle, reported the AARP Bulletin, in November.

"Paul Bergman, a Boeing spokesman, said the company plans to hire recently retired mechanics to help with “near-term airplane production requirements” at the plant in Renton, Wash. In August, the company reached an agreement with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers to bring back retirees for up to six months. Connie Kelliher, a spokeswoman for the union, said retirees will receive a $500 bonus for each month they work at the plant," they said.

“Trying to find workers, especially on a temporary basis, who understand the operations and can make contributions immediately is otherwise just about impossible,” says, Peter Cappelli, a management professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

Fears of inflation are still strong, yet some do not see this as worrisome, and one of them is Michelle Girard, chief United States economist at NatWest Markets, who said, “I don’t think it’s something the Fed should worry about,” and added,. “Productivity growth is picking up, and workers should earn more. It doesn’t mean companies have to pass on higher wage costs to consumers. They can afford to pay them more.”

Another fear, unabated is that employers cannot find the necessary skills needed, and therefore many professional jobs go unfilled, with the attendant growth for low-skilled workers, often with only secondary school credentials.

“I speak to probably a thousand businesspeople a month,” said Rick Lazio, a former Republican congressman who is a senior vice president at Alliantgroup, a tax-credit consulting firm. Midsize manufacturers are turning down lots of business, he said, to the Times, “because they can’t find the people and they can’t get the equipment fast enough.”

Especially hurting are small business who “report record-high hiring expectations, while at the same time admitting some troubles filling open roles. Companies of all sizes are currently facing the pressures of a labor market at 3.9 percent unemployment and a booming economy, but small businesses may be particularly squeezed,” noted CNBC.

Taking a closer look we can see that “Small businesses with 50 or more employees are both the most likely to say they plan to increase their headcount in the next year and are the most likely to have open positions. More than half of small-business owners with 50 or more employees (55 percent) are planning to expand their teams, and 41 percent have roles open now.”

That gap between education and experience is particularly vexing to “the finance and insurance industries are the most apt to see education and training as the largest impediments to hiring: 63 percent single this out as the primary reason.”

Some also blame a poor employment history, or lack of social, or interpersonal skills as a reason for unfilled slots.

Drilling down even deeper we still see a lowered than desired labor participation rate --- still hovering at a low rate, and “Before the financial crisis, more than 66 percent of the population 16 or older was working or looking for a job. In recent years, that number — the labor-force participation rate — has rarely risen above 63 percent.”

Most economists and analysts cite the increased retirement of baby-boomers, those who know they have low skills, and those that are too disabled to join the ranks of the employed. And, there is less demand for some fields, such as IT who faces outsourcing and cloud-based work, versus the traditional bespectacled manager roaming the halls of corporate America.

Leading in the numbers were manufacturing which increased to 32,000, with the sector adding 296,000 jobs over the past year. Also, health care pasted on 36,000 jobs while transportation and warehousing gained 25,000 jobs last month.

Not to be outdone, employment in leisure and hospitality rose 42,000, while professional and business services added 35,000 in October, and 516,000 jobs over the past year. Some caution should be exercised with that last category as it is catchall for everyone from seasonal help, to office temps.

One area of surprise, from the Times report, is that “Women are coming back into the work force at a much faster rate than men, however. And over the past year, a net total of 1.4 million women have joined compared with 845,000 men. Drawing in even more women would require better child care, paid parental leave and more flexible hours, said Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan. “We know what to do for women,” she said. “We’re really at a loss as to what to do to induce more men back.”

Updated 23 November 2018

Midterm madness has begun: a view from above

The first of a two-part series taking a look at the people, the issues, the voters and the anger and division fueling this all-important 2018 midterm election.

Long anticipated, and promoted, on both sides of the political aisle, for more than a year, the midterm elections are less than four days away, sending candidates into a frenzy, of public appearances and fundraising; for every dollar counts in this do-or-die race, a report card on the Trump administration, and its’ policies, or as some would say, a reason to thwart the president on his seeming path towards America’s isolation.

If some, on the left, see this as revenge, then still others see it, mostly on the right as an opportunity to keep the president and his policies intact, to save the United States from the forces, within, and without, that threaten it.

In that consideration, the Muslim Travel Ban, the installation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, the renegotiation of NAFTA, the tax cuts, and the sending of troops to the Southern border to meet the advancing caravan of Central Americans, are all fair game, for retribution.

You’d have to have been living on Mars, the last decade or two, not to notice the intense partisanship that has gridlocked Washington, and as the battle continues, it does appear that Democrats have a strong chance of winning back the House and also for a return for the veteran Democrat Doyenne Nancy Pelosi, as Speaker of the House.

As The Economist briskly observed: “The country is more divided and angry than it has been in decades. Politicians routinely treat each other as rogues, fools or traitors; pipe bombs and a mass-shooting at a synagogue have tainted the close of the campaign. Toxic federal politics prevents action on vital issues, from immigration to welfare; it erodes Americans’ faith in their government; and it dims the beacon of American democracy abroad. The mid-term elections are a chance to stop the rot—and even to begin the arduous task of restoring faith.”

Newsweek is reporting that “in FiveThirtyEight's tracker for a generic ballot—a simple Democrat vs. Republican question—the Democrats were up 50.3 percent to 41.9 percent, on average. And FiveThirtyEight election model projected a more than 86 percent chance that the Democrats would take back the House of Representatives from Republicans, who currently control both chambers of Congress. But FiveThirtyEight gave the Democrats just a slim chance—17.8 percent—of winning the Senate, meaning the site gave the GOP an 82.2 percent chance of holding onto control.”

No less a person than another political veteran, former GOP Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich recently spoke at a “Washington Post Live event where he said there were "two out of three" odds that the House's Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will become the next Speaker.”

“I would say, first of all, Nancy Pelosi is a very smart, very tough person who has earned her position by just brute hard work, by applying her intelligence and by applying a network that has sustained her for a long time,” and he also added, that “Anybody who thinks they’re going to outmanoeuvre her is up against somebody who has literally spent her lifetime — she’s been in this business forever.”

Some pollsters have said that the bruising Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh brought out a defensive posture, among Republican men, and women, and  that the subsequent “bump” given to the GOP might unleash a red wave

Margot Cleveland in the right leaning USA Today, said that Republican women were fired up to vote, at the rate of 83 percent; but, “Not so fast Republicans,” said Douglas Schoen in The Hill, while Republican women “did rally around Kavanaugh” a look at women surveyed on the whole “show that only 30 percent believed Kavanaugh's denials that as a hard-drinking teenager he sexually assaulted Christine Blasey Ford.”

Going even further was Jennifer Rubin in WashingtonPost.com, who said that a Post poll “showed a massive 19-point swing toward Democrats since 2016,” and this was less than two weeks ago.

Partisanship aside there are also the issues -- nearly forgotten in a an avalanche of television ads, and robocalls -- and they are of utmost importance, say the Democrats as they especially use the potential loss of protection for those with pre-existing conditions, as the gutted, but still breathing, Obamacare could meet its final destruction by the GOP, if they remain in control of Congress.

Premiums are high, in some areas, and the prediction that young people would fund it, via the individual mandate (now repealed) proved to materialize, with many young people feeling invincible, and without bipartisan support, these costs soared.

On Monday, Sarah Sanders, the White House press secretary said, according to the Intelligencer, “The president’s health-care plan that he’s laid out,” she said, “covers preexisting conditions.”

If the best defense is an offense, then Sanders was on point, yet, as they pointed out,

“There are several lies embedded in this statement, beginning with the premise that Trump has a plan at all. Trump ran for president promising repeatedly he would cover everybody, and then confessed, “Nobody knew health care could be so complicated.”

“He never came up with a plan that would cover everybody, or anything close to it. Republicans in both chambers devised plans that would cut health-care coverage and expose more poor or sick people to higher costs, or make access to medical care completely unaffordable. When the Senate failed to pass anything, the legislative initiative died.”

If neglect was death by a thousand blows, then, in another swipe with the surgical blade, “he denied payments owed to insurers under the law, in order to prod some of them to exit the markets,” and “his administration flouted the law’s protections by allowing insurers to sell low-cost, bare-bones plans to healthy people, which can be sold at cheap rates because they exclude coverage for medical care needed by people with preexisting condition.”

 Next up in the GOP quiver, for votes, are taxes, and the mantra that the cuts are saving the American middle-class, but in reality, have skewered the blow by the loss of the state and local tax deduction, a saving grace for many families, in all classes, but especially for those middle-class families with children.

The removal of the state and local income tax deductions affects not only  those taxpayers who itemize on their returns, but also hits cities as well as states that have, ironically large Democratic majorities, as well as those that voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

When it was released House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi who commented that the plan “gives away the store to the wealthy while sticking the middle class with the bill.”

Working in a vacuum, say some critics, is the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent, but that “change isn't as dramatic as it might seem because due to loopholes and other maneuvers, big U.S. corporations currently pay an effective tax rate of only 18.6%, according to the Congressional Budget Office.”

New York, is an example of how to raise the ire of those long used to something, to only have it taken away: “The benefit allows the average New Yorker to deduct roughly $20,500 annually from his or her federal taxable income, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center,” reported Crain’s New York at the time of release.

“The Independent Budget Office has estimated that doing away with the deduction would increase New York City residents' taxable income by $28 billion, causing their collective federal tax bill to rise by $8 billion a year. The state and local deduction especially benefits people with incomes of $100,000 or more who live in places like New York, New Jersey and California, where state, local and property-tax bills are high, “they also reported.

Another byproduct of the cuts is that they have contributed to the national deficits, “and is on track to hit $1 trillion in 2019. The laws enacted in the last year will add $2.4 trillion to the national debt by 2027.

Vox in their report noted that “In 2018, the federal government’s revenue was only up 0.4 percent — one of the lowest growth rates in half a century. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan group that advocates for fiscal responsibility, the slow revenue rate is in large part due to the tax bill. Taking inflation into account, federal revenues were actually down between 4 to 9 percent this year because of the tax cuts.

The second reason the deficit rose is because the government also increased how much it’s spending. Republicans agreed to a massive budget deal with this year, in order to give the military the biggest funding boost in history. To compromise with Democrats, the budget deal also hiked up funding for domestic programs.”

Next up is a look at tariffs, voters, employment numbers, and the latest polls, just before the Tuesday election day. Stay tuned.