School reopenings in US and world subject to COVID

The COVID pandemic has crept into every facet of global life, from the economy to employment and now the pressing issue is the opening of schools worldwide this fall,  especially grammar and high schools, but not excluding those of colleges and universities, especially those incoming freshman, anxious to begin their professional lives.

In the United States, the heat is turned up by President Donald Trump who wants all brick and mortar schools to open, regardless of parental and teacher feelings; a position that has the seeming intention of intensifying his reelection effort  rather than mitigate the danger that the pandemic poses for not only students, but their parents and school staff.

The president, who has faced much lower ratings in recent polls, is intent on taking a tough stance, even threatening to withhold federal aid to schools, if they don’t comply; an action that is not impossible, say legal experts, but once again represents a play to his base.

The “do they” or “don’t they”waffling is also one that has faced the world as they face, in their own unique ways, what will be best for all, considering the threat to their social capital.

Can Children get sick?

In an attempt to make a judgement of the threat of COVID 19 to children some have pointed to the case of the New York boy who fell ill, and died in May, from complications directly related to the virus but others, notably some pediatricians and epidemiologists have said that the case is an aberration, and not normal, in the course of the virus, while others have said that the medical community does not have enough information to make that judgement.

Dr.Susan Lipton, head of infectious disease at the Herman & Walter Samuelson Children’s Hospital at Sinai in Baltimore, “said there are a lot of factors that could make COVID-19 infections worse in children, like asthma, obesity or another infection like the flu. But she said those who get the sickest likely have a more serious blood disorder like sickle cell or a heart condition.”

For America, the mix of politics and pandemic has reached a crescendo, and many have noted that the surge in cases across that nation is closely tied to state lawmakers, in the South, and Southwest, who are tightly bound to the Trump agenda and their subsequent actions, or inaction, say critics, has played a role in the increase of infections, as much as 50,000 new infections in a single day for Florida, which is a state rich in electoral votes crucial for a second Trump term.

Politics over science

And, as many have seen if the GOP governors in these areas do not play by the rules of the Trump Administration, political payback is the result. Certainly, the actions of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, towards Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, in her mandate for face masks, or facial coverings, in public is another example. He is threatening to sue Atlanta, for its mandate, despite the urging of epidemiologists that masks can help reduce the chance of infection

Looking back we can also see that many of the Southern and Southwest states rejected the Obama era expansion of Medicaid with the advent of the Affordable Care Act, leaving many of its lower income residents at risk, without adequate health insurance, which also affects children’s health,and especially now, as they face the possibility of in person instruction, should it occur.

Science Magazine recently reported that younger children do not experience the same levels of severity with the virus, as teens and adults, an assertion that many feel justifies the full in-person learning experience, for developmental growth, but others say that a hybrid of young children, in school, and older children with remote learning is optimum. But, they also noted other risk factors, as an unintended consequence.

“Continued closures risk “scarring the life chances of a generation of young people,” according to an open letter published last month and signed by more than 1500 members of the United Kingdom’s Royal College of Pediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH). Virtual education is often a pale shadow of the real thing and left many parents juggling jobs and childcare. Lower-income children who depend on school meals were going hungry. And there were hints that children were suffering increased abuse, now that school staff could no longer spot and report early signs of it. It was time, a growing chorus said, to bring children back to school.”

Some school officials are saying that younger children are also prone to be strong transmitters of COVID 19, making them a danger to adults, such as parents, and teachers, and staff members at their schools, if not themselves.

Looking at the 1.5 billion school age population across the globe, it’s easy to see that the sheer enormity of those to be educated is going to be a challenge for months to come.

A model for learning in the “new normal”

Therefore the hybrid model makes good sense for some, and many are advocating that even without a hybrid mode, congregate eating areas in schools should be banned and students should eat at their desks, either with home brought meals, or from institutional kitchens, and served with disposable flatware and containers.

Other options to be considered are the increase use of outdoor spaces, desks place 3 to 6 feet apart, and meals eaten in shifts, or “to go meals”

In all of this ongoing debate, one startling factor as Science magazine noted, is the absence of strong data; a void that makes creating plans debatable, if not impossible for most areas.

“I just find it so frustrating,” says Kathryn Edwards, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine who is advising the Nashville school system, which serves more than 86,000 students, on how to reopen. Her research assistant spent 30 hours hunting for data—for example on whether younger students are less adept at spreading the virus than older ones, and whether outbreaks followed reopenings—and found little that addressed the risk of contagion in schools.”

Within that many school districts to avoid the risk of contagion are also looking at small class sizes, physical distancing, and in the upper grades having the teacher transition to classrooms, rather than students.

Scientists in a French village, noted some speculative but notable findings, “high school students``have to be very careful. They have mild disease, but they are contagious.” Children younger than 11 or 12, on the other hand, “probably don’t transmit very well. They are close to each other in schools, but that is not enough” to fuel spread. At the same time, scientists note that children have more contacts than adults, especially at school, which could offset the lower odds they will spread the pathogen."

While the picture is not entirely clear, there are some other worldwide examples that they pointed out that gives the still incomplete picture, “Other data come from day care centers: In many countries, they stayed open for children of essential workers, and outbreaks appeared rare. Two flares in Canadian day cares—one in Toronto, and one outside of Montreal—led to temporary closures. In Texas, where overall cases have skyrocketed, at least 894 preschool staff and 441 children across 883 facilities have tested positive, according to news reports. That’s up from 210 total cases just a few weeks ago.”

Masks, data and parental input

The use of masks is a compliance issue with younger children but also may make a difference for older students, those in high school for example, and in many Asian countries they have become the norm, even without the virus, but as they have been politicized in the States, the issue will become more heated.

“For me, masks are part of the equation” for slowing the spread of COVID-19 in schools, especially when distancing is difficult, says Susan Coffin, an infectious disease physician at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “Respiratory droplets are a major mode of [virus] transmission,” she says, and wearing a mask places an obstacle in those droplets’ path.

While the debate rages on, it cannot be underestimated that all of these efforts are dependent on core numbers, and in some American states such as Arizona, there are not enough trustworthy data, but the role of parental consent cannot be overlooked, as well as those of teachers, especially those that are older, and support staff.

“About 4 in 10 California adults want to stick with full-time distance learning this fall. A similarly sized group favors a limited reopening with students in school on alternating days or on half-day schedules. The staggered schedule would allow schools to comply with social distancing requirements, which typically require students to remain six feet apart,” reported the Los Angeles Times.

The Baltimore Sun reported some feelings among local parents: “The decision could be an emotional and agonizing one for parents, with some considering it too risky for their child. In some district surveys, as many as half of parents said they will keep their children out of schools.

“As a parent I default toward the safety of my kids,” said Pete Fitzpatrick, the father of two school-aged students in Catonsville. “I feel like I have the liberty to say that. We have internet access at our house.”

Laura Hamilton, a Baltimore County mother of three young girls, said she isn’t sending her two elementary school aged children back.

“There are too many unknowns from this. There have been a lot of people with long term side effects. I couldn’t forgive myself if one of my kids had chronic lung problems because I sent them back to school.”

On the other hand, “Epidemiologist Gwen Knight at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and her colleagues collected data before most school closings took effect. If schools were a major driver of viral spread, she says, “We would have expected to find more clusters linked to schools. That’s not what we found.” Still, she adds, without widespread testing of young people, who often don’t have symptoms, it’s hard to know for sure what role schools might play,” added Science Magazine.

Family income as an indicator of needs and preference

For lower income families, and those of third world countries, the use and affordability of masks, and slimming class sizes may not be feasible; and income disparities also play a significant role in how parents feel about opening school this fall, with those earning over $75,000 dollars three out of ten favored a full reopening, and those earning less, were 50 percent less in favor of reopening, reported the Times, in California, suggesting that resources for broadband access and contingent plans for child care were easier than for those making less money.

In these demographic breakdowns, race proved another factor and as was stated, “Black and Asian Pacific American parents were especially supportive of sticking with distance learning, with half or more in those groups in favor. Latino parents were most in favor of a partial reopening, with nearly half supporting that option. Whites, who have been less likely than Black people or Latinos to be hit by the virus, were the most evenly divided, with about 1 in 5 backing a full reopening.”

Politics and news from the Chicago plan

It’s also important to know, said Lisa Lerer, writing for The New York Times, that “as cases soar there is no clear national strategy for combating the virus, beyond vague promises of a vaccine. No federal plan for reopening, testing or contact tracing, apart from scattershot public health recommendations.”

For Chicago, the nation’s third largest school system, the Chicago Teachers Union, on Thursday announced their preference for an all virtual instruction, but on Friday, the Chicago Public School System and Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced their preference for a hybrid model using most of the variables for those from kindergarten to 10th grade,, and older high school students learning at home, with one virtual instruction day.

“The plan also includes "rigorous public health protocols" including a requirement that everyone wear masks, daily health screenings, temperature checks and the hiring of roughly 400 more custodians to carry out cleaning and sanitizing protocols across the district,” reported NBCChicago.com

Lightfoot anticipating probable changes in data sets of infections has said that she is seeking community input through a survey with an end date of July 31, and will hold virtual bilingual meetings across the city.

Finally, into the morass stepped Education Secretary Betsy DeVos on the Sunday chat shows this past weekend; and she echoed the need for reopening schools this fall, with most pundits view as part of the president's political agenda, and of course, his reelection for another term, and her absence of any real plan, other than political, had this reaction from Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi who called her inaction one of “malfeasance and dereliction of duty.”

The economic threat to American families

Everyone likes a happy ending, and in the U.S. The Labor Department's June Jobs Report last Thursday, seemed like a heaven sent gift to so many, especially President Trump in what is now a closely contested presidential election, between him and former Vice-President Joe Biden.  

On the heels of the Independence Holiday, it seemed like good news at first blush: non-farm payroll at 4.8 percent, and to many observers it seemed like a resurrection of sorts, or at least the ending of over a 12 week slog with the shuttering of non-essential businesses due to COVID-19, that peaked in March.

Of the leading economists that were polled in the national media, most agreed that the figure was actually illusionary because the figures were derived in the middle of June, and don’t actually reflect what happened afterwards,  and especially with the spike in the Southwestern states and Florida, which saw infection rates of 50,000 in one recent day.

What has become clear to many is that this report was not a happy ending, but the beginning of the end for many American working families, struggling to make ends meet and facing the twinned dilemma of political spin, on the part of the Trump Administration, and the near monumental failure of local and state governments struggling to meet the pandemic, and with a near denial on the part of the federal government.

As we have noted before, the stimulus check, while welcome, met on the average,one month’s rent or mortgage payment, for a family of four, with some leftover for utility and other bills, and precious little else.

Last week also saw 1.4 million Americans filing for unemployment benefits, for the first, time, and keeping that in mind, it’s important to note that the rise in employment was largely composed of low-wage workers in the travel, leisure and hospitality industries, but also, of note, specially in those parts of the country, that saw the recent uptick, may also face the threat of another round of layoffs.

As the Washington Post said, this is “ a sign that the economic recovery has not taken hold for many Americans.”

Not to mention the dubious claim from Trump that the U.S. economy came “roaring back, coming back strong.”

It should be remembered that  14 million Americans were not rehired after the February report, the last time there was solid footing for the economy. Taking a look back, from past to present, and of particular note, is that Black Americans experienced a drop from 16.7 employment to 15.4 from the month of May., and Asians came in at 13.8 percent, and Latinx at 14.5 percent; figures that cause us to take a tighter focus on racial minorities and their employment.

While the president praised the current rate of 16.3 percent for blacks, he did not mention the precipitous drop from May. 

The unemployment rate for Black men is now at its highest point in this recession, rising last month to 16.3 percent in June, notes Elise Gould of the Economic Policy Institute (EPI),” in a tweet quoted by Forbes Magazine.

She also said, “historically higher unemployment rates, lower wages, higher poverty rates, and lower liquid savings make job losses even more devastating for African American workers and their families.”

One of the most problematic areas for this population is the shrinking base of service jobs where many are concentrated in: restaurant work, bus drivers, customer service reps and other low to mid salary positions that have shrunk over the last decade, with the pandemic further eroding that base, creating concern among black families nationwide.

A perfect example is the leisure and hospitality sector where many servers, and especially kitchen staff, are composed of blacks, (and also brown workers) already vulnerable to lower wages and often lacking benefits. And, In states like Nevada and Florida, as well, as the Southwest, these are hit zones for minority paychecks. 

Mary C. Daly, president  of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in an interview with The New York Times, commented that this is a particularly hard dilemma and that “We already knew that there were structural inequalities,” and “COVID 19 made this much, much worse, it put a spotlight on them, but it also exacerbated them.”

Mary C. Daly

Florida’s recent oneday surge of over 50,000 is alarming to many cultural and economic observers who see many families,especially those with children, in serious trouble, in the foreseeable future.

Adding to this precariousness is that the White House is unlikely to endorse any of the unemployment benefits extensions that were passed in March by the Congress. 

While “less likely” is the official mantra, from the administration, that also extends to the possibility that there might be another round of stimulus checks, and as White House advisor Stephen Moore has said, “You don’t have the same sense of urgency you did a few weeks ago.”

On the other hand, optimists are seeing the glass, if not half full, poured in another direction: towards business and schools, with no firm decisions for households.

Then again, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said to the press last week, “Our work is not done until every single American who lost a job because of COVID 19 is back to work.

Looking at another group, those with less than a high school degree,who were still working at press time, stood at 35.7 last month, a  reduction from 45.1 in February. And, while the unemployment rate, the marquee rate, as we call it, is 11.1 percent, the more accurate U6 rate comes in at 18 percent, a cause for worry.

This discussion is not without the injection of politics and the upcoming November election is putting the Trump administration on the offensive and with the tie to the nation’s economy, the president is fudging, and saying often worrisome things, such as the virus will just disappear, sort of; none of which is helpful to anyone except his loyal base, but which makes other administration officials nervous and his critics looking on in anger and disbelief.

Biden has said, “The impact of this disease is hurting our black, brown, and native communities.”

Even more problematic is the loss of state revenues, from the pandemic, that will also affect a subset, claims Gould, that of black women who often predominate in large urban school systems.

While health officials such as Dr. Anthony Fauci predicted this recent virus surge, the president anxious to use the economy as the major plank in his re-election platform, is alternately stating that all will be well, despite evidence to the contrary.

Most economists have said that a full recovery from the pandemic will take at least four to five years, something that the Trump White House does not want to hear, or even acknowledge.

Update:

Adding to the worry for families in the U.S. is the ongoing Congressional discussion on how to implement further relief, during the pandemic; and the political struggle over both ideology, and relief has become worrisome for those people that need an extension of the unemployment extension as well as another influx of stimulus checks, both of which appear to be part of an internal struggle within the GOP, and how to establish priorities in the process.

Instead of one bill, it seems that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wants a series of smaller bills, perhaps in an attempt to walk the tightrope between economic demands from the electorate, and the wishes of Trump, according to Sen. Roy Blunt, R-MO  while speaking to reporters on Thursday.

Also on the table is how to handle the president’s desire for a payroll cut, which pays, in part for Medicare and Social Security. In the middle of the donnybrook is Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, who likes the idea of a temporary cut that would save money on the front end, while preserving the revenue stream for these two programs, according to Forbes.

They also underscored that, when they noted, that “A payroll tax deferral could mean the payroll tax could be owed at a later date, which would provide upfront savings. Mnuchin told CNBC that “the president’s preference is to make sure we send out direct payments quickly so that in August people get more money.”

Some in the GOP have advocated for a smaller extension for the $600.oo which is due to expire soon, and while $400.00 is a figure that is bandied about, a lower figure, preferred by Trump of $200.00 is also favored.

Speaker Pelosi noted on Sunday’s “Face the Nation” that the peg at 70 or 75 percent that McConnell wants for an extension of the unemployment benefits cannot be equally applied since some are wage earners, and others receive salaries, and that this unequal application may leave the former short.

There are some in his administration that believe that  continuing the $600.00 would be a dis-incentive to look for work, a notion that has long been bandied about by those opposed to unemployment benefits on the whole, and even the food stamp program.

A lower figure of even $200.00  that is refuted by the hardships of those looking for a job in the COVID-19 era, and also Thursday’s figure for unemployment claims, a seasonally adjusted figure of 1.4 million shows that more money is needed.

Equally problematic is that the federal eviction program moratorium is set to expire and without jobs,  especially those in the service area, may lose their homes. Yet, some lawmakers, such as Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis, said, “I just don’t see the need for it,” meaning the monetary expansion.

In contrast Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Massachusetts, said, “we are just days away from a housing crisis that could be prevented.”

“A resurgence in infections and a rollback of reopening plans in several states is making it difficult for people to re-enter the labor force following the pandemic lockdown -- and it could derail the vulnerable US economic recovery,” reported CNN Business.

In addition, “On top of regular claims for unemployment benefits, nearly 1 million people across 49 states applied for pandemic unemployment assistance, a program Congress rolled out as part of the government's Covid response. It provides benefits to workers who aren't typically eligible, such as freelancers and the self-employed. The program stands to expire at the end of the year.”

For the second round of stimulus checks, the amount. mostly noted, is $1200.00, and as the Forbes columnist noted: “Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed that the amount of the second stimulus check in the proposal will be a one-time $1,200 stimulus check.

The requirements to receive the second stimulus check will be the same as the first stimulus check under the Cares Act, which was the $2.2 trillion stimulus package in March. So, if you received a first stimulus check, then you would receive a second stimulus check under the Republican plan.”

Perhaps more problematic for American families is that while the Senate wants a lower overall bill of $1 trillion, the Democrats in the House want $3 trillion. 

“Democrats are targeting approximately $1 trillion for state and local aid, and $430 billion to open schools. . . .. However, Senate Republicans are not proposing any new state or local aid. Why? They believe that authorization in prior stimuli is sufficient. Without federal support, however, many Democrats argue that some states and localities will face dire financial circumstances, budget cuts and potential bankruptcy.”

Updated 26 July at 2:30 p.m. CSDT