With filibuster intact, can Dems go rogue with COVID bill?

It takes two to tango, says the old expression, and within the opening days of the US Senate, with the Democrats in charge, albeit by a slim majority, there were two senators, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, that tipped the scales to a power sharing agreement accepted by the new Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Sen. McConnell

 While success has many fathers, and failure is an orphan, can yet again, a successful bipartisan effort, be had? And, was there no middle ground for the Senate to fill the seats of the various committees, with the inauguration of President Joe Biden without one? 

It seemed not, and with the Republican dominated Senate as the historical party of “no”, endorse any Democratic legislation, ever?

That logjam, noted The Hill, that McConnell, as well as Chuck Schumer, the new majority leader, wanted to end, and with Manchin and Sinema on the dance card, the die was now set, despite not getting written assurances that Schumer would not change the rules of the filibuster, in his tenure, and an “okay” with reconciliation, (a measure designed for a straight up and down vote), and with VIce President Harris, breaking any ties, there is now agreed governance for lawmakers in the new administration.

There is still the role of the filibuster, and while many have seen it as a time honored tool, others have maligned it, especially as a tool for segregationists, and some Dems were for it, before they were against it, for example, former President Obama, when he was a senator.

As The Wall Street Journal noted last September, “many senators of both parties defended the filibuster as a tool to promote comprose and counter the other party, and viewed ending it as shortsighted because a party newly in power might quickly undo the other’s laws and pass its own.”

Biden has also said that he would prefer its preservation, unless facing GOP opposition that would thwart him in his efforts towards new legislation.

Taking a look back at its origins sheds some light for modern readers: “Using the filibuster to delay or block legislative action has a long history. The term filibuster—from a Dutch word meaning "pirate"—became popular in the 1850s, when it was applied to efforts to hold the Senate floor in order to prevent a vote on a bill,” notes the US Senate website.

“In the early years of Congress, representatives as well as senators could filibuster. As the House of Representatives grew in number, however, revisions to the House rules limited debate. In the smaller Senate, unlimited debate continued on the grounds that any senator should have the right to speak as long as necessary on any issue.”

For those of a certain generation, and perhaps beyond, there was Huey Long of Louisiana in the 1930s infamous for his hours long recitation of Shakespeare, and recipes for southern delicacies; but, on the less humorous side, there is “The record for the longest individual speech [which] goes to South Carolina's J. Strom Thurmond who filibustered for 24 hours and 18 minutes against the Civil Rights Act of 1957.”

History might be written by the victors, but it is also subject to scrutiny, and revision.

Now enter Sara Binder, historian, and academic, whose closer read of the original documents show that “the history of extended debate in the Senate belies the received wisdom that the filibuster was an original, constitutional feature of the Senate. The filibuster is more accurately viewed as the unanticipated consequence of an early change to Senate rules.”

Out of a lengthy and persuasive discussion, Binder, “In testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Rules and Administration, she counters a number of conventionally held notions about the origins and history of the Senate filibuster, and worth noting for the Biden administration, is this: “There are conditions that can lead a bipartisan supermajority to agree to change Senate rules. The minority has often held the upper hand in these contests, however, given the high barrier to reform imposed by inherited Senate rules.”

Most recently, McConnell refused to end the filibuster for President Trump, and along with Sen. Orrin Hatch defended its nearly sacrosanct role in senate negotiations, and  “The GOP knows what it's like to be powerless, and it has used the filibuster to great effect in recent years while in the minority. This is a tool whose value is known to many Senate Republicans because they have relied on it<’ noted The Washington Post, in 2017.

All  of which brings us to the present day where Biden facing the ongoing COVID pandemic and growing pressure to stem the tide of the pandemic, especially on the economic lives of millions of Americans faces a stalwart GOP determined not to pass his $1.9 billion coronavirus relief

Sen. Dick Durbin  of Illinois, the new majority whip, told NBC's "Meet the Press" that "The American people want us to take action, action on this pandemic, action on this economy and on a host of other issues, and if this filibuster has become so common in the Senate that we can't act, that we just sit there helpless, shame on us. Of course we should consider a change in the rule under those circumstances.”

With some justification the GOP has balked at the price tag, but, with increasing new strains from overseas, can America afford to not do everything that it can. Certainly, without federal help as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has noted before, economic relief cannot be had.

Sen. Durbin

Republican lawmakers want to limit relief to vaccines, already in short supply due to Trump officials recalcitrance, and many like Maine senator Susan Collins are looking only at the vaccine, and distribution, without taking stock of the vast needs for the nation's public schools, and state and local aid.

She noted in a recent call that, “it seems premature to be considering a package of this size and scope.”

Looking at the methodology is also Collins' way of distancing herself, and others of her camp, from an outright rejection, on cost alone. But, without the money, direct payments withstanding, how can the US recover?

The new president has said, “Time is of the essence, and I must tell you I’m reluctant to cherry pick and take out one or two items.” 

While no deadline has been set by the White House, it is obvious that time is of the essence, and going it alone is an option, without GOP support, but some supporters, as well as critics, note that would burn through a lot of his political capital, and upset McConnell, but as most Washington insiders know the minority leader is skillful at playing on the contours of an issue, and in the end not cooperating at all.

The Day of Infamy: January 6, 2021

 

One week ago today, on a chilly Wednesday, America’s Capitol was overrun by insurrectionists in a violent mob, urged on by President Trump in a speech riddled with falsehoods, to “take back” the government.

Angered that he lost the 2020 presidential election and after a series of calculated disinformation, Trump’s rallying call contained only a perfunctory call for peace. And,

emboldened by his words, the mob proceeded to smash windows and doors in the Capitol, in an attempt to prevent the formal ,and mostly ceremonial, counting of the electoral votes, presided by Vice President Mike Pence in a joint session of Congress. 

Trump lost the electoral vote in a 306-232 final count, in short a free and fair election in accordance with U.S. election laws.

Shortly after the first objection was raised and debate was to begin, the Senate retired to their chamber, from the House, and then the mob reached the very doors of the chamber as the Secret Service grabbed the vice president and then the Speaker of the House Chuck Schumer, followed in turn by Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell,and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

In a well publicized, and well planned effort, hundreds of thousands of people poured into the Congress, replete with guns, pipe bombs, Molotov cocktails; and, with rumors of the possible use of tear gas, lawmakers hid under their desks, with gas masks on, and some remanded to the House gallery, lying on the floor as the insurrectionists surged into the chamber, some with plastic zip ties, presumably as handcuffs for “errant” lawmakers, chiefly Pence and the long hated Pelosi.

One elderly woman, according to USA Today, yelled at Capitol Police officers, “Tell Pelosi we’re coming for her.

The scene was shocking and unforgettable, the most frightening act towards American democracy since the Whiskey Rebellion of 1794 that threatened the early days of the republic; and, the burning of the building by the British in the War of 1812, but no one had thought that this horror was possible, as image after image gave the impression of the much maligned “banana republics” of Hollywood, or the march toward the Duma, in the Tauride Palace in St. Petersburg, during the last days of the Russian Imperial government, and the beginning of The Russian Revolution.

Neither were expected in the United States, an 18th century experiment that became the world’s leading democracy, especially in its entrance into World War I, and its role in ending World War II.

To see the unfolding events and later images made many Americans awestruck and saddened, ourselves included, while still others were in tears.

The Capitol Police with a vast underestimation of the rally turned down the use of The National Guard, and its chief, Steven Sund, even rejected offers of help by the FBI as “extremists were climbing Capitol Hill” as the vandals roamed halls, stealing official documents and posed for pictures with their feet on the desks of the Speaker in her office, and on the dais.

Lying at the core of the mob was the insidious odor of racism, as gangs of white supremaicsts, spearheading the call to Washington: The Proud Boys, The Bugallo Boys, The 3 Percent and others whose extremist views have been  allowed to foment over decades in America, and whose rise and now has manifested itself in what is truly our 21st century day of infamy.

The racist core, and the desire for a new civil war seems to replace the one that ended in the 19th century, and has been given new impetus by the inflammatory rhetoric of Trump, who with this scorched earth movements, has given these groups what they want, a hero, a leader, and an emergence from the shadows.

In an appearance on Tuesday in Texas, the president refused to take the blame for his incendiary actions saying according to The New York TImes, ““People thought what I said was totally appropriate,” Mr. Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, en route to Alamo, Texas, where he was set to visit the border wall. Instead, Mr. Trump claimed that racial justice protests over the summer were “the real problem.”

“If you look at what other people have said, politicians at a high level about the riots during the summer, the horrible riots in Portland and Seattle and various other places, that was a real problem,” he said.

There are more revelations: members of law enforcement and even local government leaders joining in the fracas, and with some “mom and pop” folks saying that Jan. 6th was the best day of their lives.

What we face as a nation today is a moral reckoning, and the realization that we are no longer, the City on the Hill, or the New Jerusalem; and, will be a problem for years to come as not simply the 70 million voters who voted for Trump four years ago, but the these groups that have energized the violence and the rhetoric that has turned whatever accomplishments for racial and gender equality, the U.S. has created, on its head.

Many in the media as well as on the streets and the shops have been angered that the majority white crowd that caused the horror were simply allowed to melt away, while this summer, Blacks peacefully demonstrating caused such alarm that virtual armies were sent out, not to mention the clearing out of a  multiracial crowd of protestors in Washington’s Lafayette Square, was dispersed with tear gas and rubber bullets, so that the president could hold a photo op in front of St. John’s Episcopal Church, holding a Bible.

When some Black hooligans hijacked peaceful demonstrations ro racial justice, in Chicago, they were derided again, and again, by whites, but these white insurrections have not been condemned at all by most of white Chicagoans.

The task before us, as a nation, is how do we go forth?

Calls for charges of sedition may be one of many steps to hold the perpetrators accountable. 

While lawyers and academics argue the fine points Bill Kennedy writing for The Baltimore Sun, noted the following in his research: “Overt conduct, such as speech and organisation that tends toward rebellion against the established order. Sedition often includes subversion of a constitution and incitement of discontent toward, or rebellion against established authority. It may include any commotion, though not aimed at direct and open violence against the laws.”

The trajectory of lies, misinformation and disinformation and the subversion of human dignity also, has sadly led to this debacle, and, Kennedy also noted that “The members of Congress who also fed their constituents a litany of lies about the legality of the election and stoked the fires of discontent, many to try to preserve their standing with that portion of the electorate and stay in office, share in the wrongdoing and should also be held accountable.”

Ultimately President Trump, who was impeached for the second time Wednesday, has created the establishment of a cult which has led to this violent episode that perpetuates a skewed version of reality, both of law and content.

It is worth noting that Andrew Sullivan writing in NYMag.com, two years ago, derided Trump and “his ludicrous reality show” which has led his followers to state “the truth is whatever he says it is.”

December 2020 Jobs Report sinks with COVID

 

Hopes sank for a V shaped recovery when the U.S. Labor Dept. released its December Jobs report for 2020 with a drastic drop in non farm job creation of only 140,000, and a still weak labor force participation rate of 61.5 percent that combined with the November report showed that the COVID pandemic has wreaked, and will continue to wreak havoc on the American economy, as it has in most of the developed world, and beyond.

The $900 billion relief package that Congress passed in December arrived too late to have a significant impact on an already burdensome economy, but it is expected that the incoming Biden administration will continue more stimulus payments, both to individuals and also to state and local economies, both who face dire consequences without help.

Election week markets, recalled Jill Schlesinger, CBS News business analyst, in an earlier column, noted the market's reaction, with an S&P soaring 7.3 percent, “the best presidential election week since 1932.”

Now with a Democratic majority in the Senate, after the Georgia runoff elections, corporate America may not be as sanguine as they were with a Republican controlled Senate, and many are hazarding a guess as to any tax increases.

As we recalled earlier King Covid reigns, and with recent surges in the pandemic and business restructuring and local and state governments adding more restrictions Wall Street as well as Main Street will continue to suffer.

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell noted just after the election, “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus,” and continued relief set against the promise of the two major vaccines can offer hope to millions of workers.

Those especially hard hit are those in the service sector, and especially those that depend on in person interaction such as leisure and travel with $500,00 cuts in December, and restaurants which are acutely vulnerable, faced 372,000 in job losses, and hotels with 24,000.

Adding to the losses were private schools and colleges with 60,000 job losses creating economic havoc in smaller towns where they are often the main employer.

There were some gains, perhaps not strong enough to sustain, but manufacturing rose by 38,000 jobs, construction by 51,000 and retail in a surprising spin 120,000 jobs added by a loosening of restrictions and warmer weather that extended into Fall.

That hoped for V recovery has now clearly become a K shaped with the upper branch focused on the managerial and professional class, mostly white, and the bottom branch with lower waged service workers, mostly Black and Brown people, whose future seems bleak, especially those who are restaurant workers, and whose brief surge during the summer, has hit a low with the advent of cold weather and a dearth of outdoor dining.

If this continues, many households will not only face an uncertain future, but also can contribute to a slack in the nation’s GDP. And, as Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said to The New York Times, “Most notably, this is still very much a low wage recession, and the losses where we first saw them when the pandemic hit.”

It is worth noting that Labor does not count those who are not looking for work (who may feel there are not jobs available), or are caring for children, or elderly relatives, including those with disabilities.

Contributing to long term joblessness are those the Times noted who have criminal background records, and the disabled, “that make it hard to find jobs even in the best of times.”

Biden said, according to The Wall Street Journal, ““The bottom line is the jobs report shows we need to provide more immediate relief for working families and businesses—now,”. . .. “He also said he would seek to increase the federal minimum wage to at least $15 an hour, calling on Congress to pass the measure.”

Equally problematic as we noted last month are women who are now forced to care for children, and other dependents, have left the workforce, especially those who worked in service areas; aided and with partners or spouses who are higher wage earners.

The subsequent void has cut back prime age working women to 75 percent of the workforce in December from 77.1 in February of 2020, before the pandemic.

The racial breakdown has shown that Blacks have made a moderate stability of 9.9 percent employment rate against the general rate of 6.7, against 10.3 percent before; but, Hispanics have increased to 9.3 percent, from 8.4 in November, as active participants in lower wage and service sectors.

What concerns most economists, labor leaders and lawmakers is that the country has lost half a million jobs in 2020, the most significant decline “on a percentage basis since the aftermath of World War II.”

Of equal concern are state and local governments who as we have seen did not gain monies from the most recent aid bill, but have faced budget cuts and layoffs, since they are mandated to have a balanced budget, and who employ 13 percent of employers in the United States.

There have been 1.4 million of those jobs lost since last February, the pre pandemic marker that is the baseline for comparison, with 51,000 alone last month.

Some believe like Swonk that this is a low wage recession, driven by the pandemic and that shoring up the service sector with financial relief, and the vaccine, there might be a recovery, and Bloomberg reported that “Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. “It does show that if we can get control of the pandemic, then we can restore economic activity and labor market conditions over the course of this year. It’s a pandemic-driven number, a pandemic-driven composition.”

Wage growth, as can be imagined, has declined, and they added,“For the full year, payrolls declined by 9.37 million, the most in records back to 1939 and exceeding the combined slump in 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession and its aftermath.”

What lies aheads depends on so many factors, as we have seen, and while remaining hopeful, this optimism is tempered by caution, and especially with the vaccine rollout, and the policies of the incoming Biden administration, aided by its experienced cabinet, and its now Democratic majority in Congress.