Saturday, August 6, 2022

July Jobs report is a cause for champagne in the US


If the June Jobs report was the occasion for an extra chocolate eclair on the breakfast plates of economists, then July with its whopping 528,000 non-farm payroll jobs, is now an occasion for champagne cocktails, after the US Labor Department issued the good news on Friday.

This news also brings the country to a milestone: each and every job that has been gained this year recoups the losses from the Covid pandemic, not an insubstantial feat, for a country that was brought to its knees with the pandemic wreaking havoc on the economic health of the world's largest economy.


The unemployment rate, what we call the marquee rate, descended to 3.5, from last month’s 3.6. There was a conundrum, of sorts, with a flattening of the labor force participation rate that has caused concern for some economists and observers, not to mention employers, looking to hire.


While, for some, it may be more of a backstory, it’s still a significant outlier for those whose job it is to study the economy, or at least follow a trajectory, and one of them is the Federal Reserve Board, whose twinned mission of keeping inflation at 2 percent levels, and the nation at full employment, has watched this report with some concern, especially with the overall increase in wages from 4.9 percent to 5.2 percent and with the series of scheduled rate increases, the last of which was 0.75, the highest in decades; but, now comes concern that these employment gains coupled with higher wages, needs a cooling down to avoid higher inflation, and we will have to wait till September to see what the Fed will do.


Of course, the R word has been bandied about so much in the general media, that many want to see the word banished from the vocabulary of news programs as the continued lead stories on radio, television and the internet, is “Folk’s we’re headed into a recession.”


For those that stayed awake in Econ 101, it’s easy to see that this is pure fallacy: 376,00 jobs for June and 528,000 for July, it’s better to state, “Ain’t no way!”


This strong labor market is one that Chair Jerome Powell has also cited as a reason to say that the US is not in a recession.

Jerome Powell


The agreed upon wisdom is that there must be two quarters of retraction in the GDP which we have had, but absent rising unemployment, and other facts, we are not. Those other factors are: “falling retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing for an extended period of time.”


Of course, despite the high wages, prices are well, high, as anyone who pumps gas at the station knows, wages are not keeping up with inflation. For example, a local fast food supervisor told us that he can’t even get a full tank on his kid-friendly SUV, without shelling out $100.00.


Some drivers are feeling a sigh of relief at an average price of $4.79 a gallon as welcome news.


There are concerns present with the household survey standing at a nearly unchanged labor force participation rate of 62.1, even but that alignment, even with the upward revisions for May, and June, shows that the American economy is much more robust, and resilient, than many would have thought.


“As long as you’re above 200,000, you’re still doing better than pre-pandemic and it’s still strong, “said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. “It doesn’t feel very good, because it’s being accompanied by inflation,” reported CNBC.com


From all reports it seems that the Biden Administration's efforts with a slimmed down version of the “Build Back Better Act” is destined to become law after weeks of negotiation with Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and also the support of Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema, both bulwarks against the previous bill.


With its increase in increased tax rates for high income earners, the estate tax, and a much championed push for a tax on billionaires, and while broader tax increase are missing that were much desired such as, capital gains, to 25 percent, and a restoration of the “the top income tax rate of 39.6 percent, among others, the legislation is expected to bring down inflation with efforts by the Federal Reserve.


Tax experts and economists expect that the reduction will be felt over years, and not months, and one source, according to Vox.com “Shai Akabas, director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center: I think it’s likely to have a modest downward effect on inflation, so directionally, I think it is likely to push downward on prices. But that’s unlikely to be the primary effect of the legislation, given how many specific policies there are.


Most of the impact on inflation and the broader economy from this legislation is likely to be medium-term, not felt in the immediate next few months, which is how households are thinking about inflation.”


He also added an important note: “That’s largely because there’s very little that policymakers can do, certainly on a legislative basis, to impact inflation overnight. That is primarily the job of the Federal Reserve. … There’s not much you can do, absent overnight taking lots of money out of the economy, out of people’s pockets — which is not something that Congress likes to do or almost ever does — that is going to dramatically change the immediate inflation outlook.”


The push to bring down inflation is needed, as Swonk noted, when she said, “At the moment, inflation is hurting everyone. It’s an equal opportunity scourge at this point,” and Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, added “What policymakers are faced with is pushing the unemployment rate higher.”


That would also affect unemployment especially on the lower rungs of service and retail jobs, especially in two income families where female employment is mostly seen.


Gapen also feels that by the end of the year, “job growth could turn negative, followed by the possibility of several monthly reports of job losses as high as 150,000. He expects a shallow recession to take hold by then,” they added.


Right behind him is Swonk who “said she also sees payrolls turning negative, with monthly job losses between 100,000 and 200,000.”


While the service sectors such as leisure and hospitality have seen the greatest growth, 96,000 along with that catch all category of business services have expanded to 89,000, these numbers represent an expansion of a much needed workforce, with some previous barriers such as marijuana convictions, and the lack of a college degree deleted.

Diane Swonk


As Gapen and Swonk indicate these growth areas could be those cut by year end. But, this has also seen cuts on the corporate side when Walmart has targeted 200 corporate jobs for layoff, as noted in a New York Times report, quoting their announcement that “American consumers were pulling back on purchases of general merchandise to focus on necessities like groceries. The company said it expected operating profits for the full year to fall by as much as 13 percent, as the company was forced to continue marking down inventory that wasn’t selling.”


CNBC also quoted Wells Fargo Institute who expect that by the end of this year, “unemployment will tick up to  4.3% . . .”


President Biden has acknowledged that job growth will slow by the end of the year, and that despite contractions does not mean the economy is tanked.


Speaking of tanks, when Biden made his first trip to the Middle East and met with Gulf Leaders of Saudi Arabia it was hoped that he could bring down the price of gasoline that has forced millions of drivers in the US, and the UK, to cut back, often, on needed trips.


Unfortunately, these leaders were less than willing to budge much, and production has increased to less than one-tenth of one percent, or 100 barrels per day, an almost negligible amount that will surely not only show little effect on the needs of consumers, and will be cause of concern in the West Wing as Biden faces increased GOP criticism, as he heads to the November midterms.


While that maybe a worry for the president, American consumers have their own worries and fears about budgets, food on the table and educating their children all of which needs to be met, just as inflation nibbles away at the edges.



Monday, August 1, 2022

Monkeypox, politics, and fear create frenzy across US

All politics are local, according to the old adage, and that seems to be true, now more  than ever with the Monkeypox virus that has spread across the United States which began this Spring and rose to approximately 5,200 cases mostly among gay men, or those who have sex with other men, regardless of self identification, and those with multiple  partners. 


The New York Times also reported, “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Thursday that the United States has now confirmed more than 4,600 cases of monkeypox, which has already been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization. The U.S. case count is among the highest in the world, and the figure is almost certainly an underestimate. Men who have sex with men comprise 99 percent of the confirmed cases so far.”


While the virus is not limited to gay men, fears of stigmatization are already present, and many virologists and epidemiologists are anxious to emphasize that fact, as are gay community leaders.


Monkeypox was first seen in Europe in early May, shortly before it reached epic proportions in New York City, and Washington, DC, in late June, but, also in other large cities such as San Francisco and Chicago; and London Breed, San Francisco’s mayor, was forced to declare a public health emergency.


The approved vaccine was long stuck in a bottleneck in a Danish factory, until recently, when the FDA visited it to give final approval and there were long lines in both New York, and Washington, which forced many health providers to give only one dose of the two dose regimen.


Much like the early days of covid, testing has not been emphasized, and some say the five labs the government has contracted with, still leaves the nation short.


Biden administration efforts


The Biden-Harris administration earlier issued a white paper discussing its humanitarian efforts, but it was not seen by many, and with long lines many likened it to the huge supply problems faced with the covid vaccine that initially had severe supply issues.


While few in the LGBT community have been openly critical of Biden, with one saying, “at least he isn’t advising people to drink bleach like Trump,” but if supplies continue to be limited, that might occur, and with his sunken ratings, this is the last thing he needs before the November midterms.


Previously, Politico announced that Biden was poised to declare monkeypox a health emergency, one that is made by the US Department of Health and Human Services, and much like other national disasters would release “a slew of actions, including accessing new money and appointing new personnel, according to the law that dictates how and when the federal government can declare such an emergency.” 


Earlier this month, the Biden Administration announced that it has directed the Health and Human Services director to announce a national health emergency.


The New York Times reported that Xavier Becerra briefing the press said, “We’re prepared to take our response to the next level in addressing this virus, and we urge every American to take monkeypox seriously.” 


While some lawmakers have urged the administration for more action, and a list of the steps it has taken to advance help and to increase supply, "AIDS activists, who have been sharply critical of the administration, have been demanding an emergency declaration for weeks. “This is all too late,” said James Krellenstein, a founder of PrEP4All, an advocacy group. “I don’t really understand why they didn’t do this weeks ago.”


For those hoping that this declaration would increase vaccine supply, this is not to be, "Declaring the emergency would not ease that shortage, but the administration may take steps to allow quicker access to tecovirimat, the drug recommended for treating the disease," they added.


What does it do? "The emergency designation would allow the F.D.A. to authorize measures that can diagnose, prevent or treat monkeypox, without having to go through the agency’s usual exhaustive review. The agency relied heavily on this provision to speed tests, vaccines and treatments for the coronavirus."


Declaring an emergency also gives the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention more access to information from health care providers and from states. Generally, federal agencies like the C.D.C. cannot compel states to share data on cases or vaccinations.


Tom Ingelsby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health, told them, “We’re having a lot of challenges around the country with their rate of rise in terms of new cases,” and while “not a high threat to the general population, . .  . it has the potential to spread to additional vulnerable communities.”


In agreement, Dr. Tom Frieden tweeted, “The recent outbreaks of monkeypox, and Marburg show why we better learn the lessons of Covid. Unless we make significant investments in global health and strengthen systems to quickly find and stop new disease threats, we and our children will face the consequences.”


Frieden is the former commissioner of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (2002–2009) and is now president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives, a $225 million, five-year initiative to prevent epidemics and cardiovascular disease, according to his Wikipedia profile.


Monkeypox has symptoms raging from a rash, or sores anywhere on the body, including the genitals, and often with flu-like symptoms, and can include swollen lymph nodes and is often spread through sex, and other intimate actions, such as kissing and physical contact; but, also with sharing infected towels, clothing, bedding, and other materials. But, to note, symptoms can appear, without a linear pattern, therefore making testing essential.


The sores can also be extremely painful, and gay men have been advised to refrain from sex, by some health personnel, and to immediately test if symptoms occur.


Vaccine shortages


Despite the arrival of more vaccines, the US is still critically short of what is needed and according to the Washington Post, “Even with the latest shipments, there are only enough vials of the two-dose Jynneos vaccine to cover about a third of the estimated 1.6 million gay and bisexual men who officials consider at highest risk and who are being urged to get the shots.”


Latest reports are that there will not be more deliveries nationwide until October, but The Post continued, “The shortfall of Jynneos, the only vaccine approved by the Food and Drug Administration to protect against monkeypox, has health officials at every level of government scrambling to come up with strategies. Those in hard-hit communities like New York City and D.C. have opted to give out only one dose for now, against regulators’ advice, while pushing federal officials for larger allotments.”


Previously San Francisco’s KTVU reported  that San Francisco had 281 probable and confirmed monkeypox cases. This makes up 33% of cases statewide. Breed said data shows that San Francisco has been hit the hardest and health officials don’t want to wait another day to get people the testing, vaccines and treatment they need.”


They later expected, "to receive 4,220 monkeypox vaccine doses, enabling Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital to reopen a vaccination clinic on August 1 that closed July 13 and again this week when supplies ran out.


Breed has emphasized that "This is not going to be ignored. This is a public health crisis," Breed said in her calls for more vaccines.”


Personal appeals to local Chicago lawmakers resulted in responses that held the Feds accountable for the supply problem, and that they could not give what they didn't have, with some being almost defensive.


We witnessed long lines of men, in nearly 90 degree heat, in Chicago waiting outside the offices of Test Positive Aware Network, (TPAN)  for two hours, only to be told that the vaccine had run out and to come back the following week, and that those with a number, an unknown fact to many, would then get vaccinated;  which in turn caused one bystander to remark, “This is just like Covid.”


There were also unconfirmed rumors that some social venue vaccination efforts in Chicago, anxious about supplies, vaccinated some people ahead of others.


Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, and now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, opined in The New York Times that “Our country’s response to monkeypox ‌‌has been plagued by the same shortcomings we had with Covid-19. Now if monkeypox ‌gains a permanent foothold in the United States and becomes an endemic virus that joins our circulating repertoire of pathogens, it will be one of the worst public health failures in modern times not only because of the pain and peril of the disease but also because it was so avoidable . . . We don’t have a federal infrastructure capable of dealing with these emergencies.”


According to the Illinois State Rep. Kelly Cassidy’s earlier email newsletter, “CDPH (Chicago Department of Public Health) has distributed over 5,000 doses of the vaccine and reports they are expecting a delivery of an additional 15,000.” 


Many say that even this is not enough, and criticize the early decision to vaccinate only those with confirmed or, “likely contacts of monkeypox patients.”


In a recent interview on WAMU’s ‘1A”, epidemiologist Dr. Celine Gounder noted that more studies need to be done on the efficacy of one dose, while many are waiting for the arrival of more vaccines, and with concerns of those who are not having multiple partners, waiting for the vaccine, she analogized to a neighborhood that is on fire and that water must be given only to the houses that are actually burning.


The Biden paper noted that “as additional doses are received from the manufacturer, HHS will make them available to jurisdictions to expand availability to the vaccine for individuals with elevated risk.”


State level efforts


Illinois governor JB Pritzker had urged the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “to use the tools available at the federal level to immediately increase the availability of vaccines in at-risk communities, “ Cassidy wrote


Shortly afterward, in a late development, he declared Illinois a public health emergency, and said, ““MPV is a rare, but potentially serious disease that requires the full mobilization of all available public health resources to prevent the spread.”

This will ensure smooth coordination between state agencies and all levels of government, thereby increasing our ability to prevent and treat the disease quickly. We have seen this virus disproportionately impact the LGBTQ+ community in its initial spread. Here in Illinois we will ensure our LGBTQ+ community has the resources they need to stay safe while ensuring members are not stigmatized as they access critical health care.”


Illinois currently has the fourth highest cases in the nation, 888, with Chicago at 460. Overall the US has, at current estimate 14,115.


In its local coverage, NBCChicago.com reported, “officials can [now] more easily secure vaccine shipments and ramp up distribution to ensure the most impacted communities receive treatment as soon as possible."


Funding needed


Of course, going further also requires money, and in a private estimate, some federal officials said, on deep background, that  $7 billion is needed to even meet “the scope and urgency of the current situation”, their reporters revealed.


Breaking it down, in an internal memo that Post reporters obtained, there would be $6.9 billion needed to have the vaccine made in the US, and “could also secure $19 million new doses of vaccine for monkeypox, replenish 4 million doses for smallpox preparedness efforts and more.”


Returning to vaccine supply shortages: “Some experts also are advocating that people be encouraged to take a less desirable vaccine, ACAM2000, which was approved for the related virus of smallpox but not for monkeypox.”


“There are not enough shots” to pursue a strategy of relying solely on Jynneos, said a federal official working on the monkeypox response, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment, warning of a possible “vaccine cliff” in coming weeks,” added the Post..


Dosage variance and advice to address shortages


“Some experts have called on U.S. officials to instead encourage Americans to get vaccinated with ACAM2000, which was approved for smallpox, a related virus, and that the United States had previously stockpiled in case of a potential outbreak. That vaccine relies on injecting people with a live, if weakened, virus, which carries additional risks. It also is administered in a series of rapid punctures that can draw blood and lead to scarring. The vaccine is available as needed, although public health officials have been wary of relying on it.”

 

ACAM2000 is not recommended for those with compromised immune systems, and with many people still living with HIV in the gay male population, the risks are enormous.

 

“No one’s crazy about it. You shouldn’t be crazy about it. But you should give people the choice,” said Ezekiel Emanuel, a bioethicist who has advised the Biden administration on coronavirus and attended a White House briefing this week on monkeypox,” according to the Post.


Earlier reports at the end of July from the City of Chicago said that there was an increase in vaccines and that, “Those 33,000 doses will come from the nearly 800,000 doses that were cleared by the Biden administration . . . to arrive over the next several weeks.”

 

Even more alarming is this: “Even with the latest shipments, there are only enough vials of the two-dose Jynneos vaccine to cover about a third of the estimated 1.6 million gay and bisexual men who officials consider at highest risk and who are being urged to get the shots.”


One shot or two? Or half?


Previously, “U.S. officials said that they have now secured 1.1 million Jynneos vaccine doses, including 786,000 doses finally cleared by regulators after being delayed in Denmark for more than a month, and which will “be in the hands of people who need them over the course of the next several weeks,” Becerra said in a later press conference. Federal regulators reiterated Friday that the vaccine should be given to most people as a two-dose regimen, meaning that U.S. officials have enough shots to cover about 550,000 people.”


As we have seen, that is being ignored in some areas, and while the studies are yet to be done, using one shot, there is some evidence to suggest that they can be effective as 2 doses, but this has also provoked a fierce debate among researchers and physicians, and as Goudner said, in the absence of studies, there is a feeling that many providers are taking what they can get. 


In a recent development, in order to ensure adequate vaccine supplies, there has been a move to fractional shots, "which allows providers to use only one-fifth of the current dosage. The vaccines may now be administered intradermally or between layers of skin, rather than in the fat layer under the skin," noted the Times in a recent update.


While there have been no objections by the manufacturer of the vaccine, this method may increase side effects "such as redness, swelling and firmness." And, there has only been one study that examined this method.

Another factor is training, not many of the providers in the US have that training, and there is the perception among  some Black men, receiving the vaccine with that method, may feel slighted; and, already the overwhelming recipients have been white men.


“The 500,000 additional doses that the U.S. ordered in June is anticipated to be delivered this year,” a Bavarian Nordic spokesperson wrote in an email, declining to respond to specific questions about timing or the company’s commitments to other countries.”


Giving some hope was “Sarah Lovenheim an HHS spokeswoman [who] said officials had expedited the doses announced this week and were working to accelerate future shipments, too.


“We’ll seize every opportunity to speed up the path to secure more doses ahead of schedule, as possible,” Lovenheim said.


Another problem is that there has been a change in delivery systems that health care officials across the nation have said is burdened by "missteps and confusion", reported the Times; and, the distribution system VTrcks, noted for its efficiency and linkage to state systems has not been used for this vaccine, and instead is using email, instead of a distribution system and orders have been severely delayed, and in one instance a shipment to Ft. Lauderdale, Fla, was reported as being sent to Oklahoma, then Mississippi, and then Florida.


While HHS has switched to a different system it is still not linked to state immunization databases.


“Peter Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine, said he was open to the idea of “dose sharing” as a temporary fix, suggesting that people could get one dose of Jynneos and one dose of ACAM2000.”


“We don’t have much of a window to fix this,” Hotez said. “Once it gets into the rodent population, it becomes a fixture here, like it’s been in Central and West Africa.”


Updated August, 20, 2022 at 4:25 p.m. CDT


Please note that this is an evolving story, and will be updated as needed.