February Jobs Report surprises many, but US needs more

 Friday's Jobs report for February from the U.S. Labor Department was a blessing to optimists, hardy as they are, and a promise to those who believe in the power of hope, which often springs eternal.

Seeing 379,000 non farm jobs exceeded the 49,000 jobs from the previous month and exceeded the private ADP report of 177,000, despite their different methodology, but gives pause for a recovery, although most economists and academics are saying that it will be 2024 as the latest date for a full recovery, with February 2020 as the baseline.

The Hill reported this from the White House: "If you think today's jobs report is "good enough," then know that at this pace (+379,000 jobs/month), it would take until April 2023 to get back to where we were in February 2020," White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain Tweeted.

With nearly 10 million Americans still out of work, the report underscored the damage done to the US economy from Covid 19 and also the residual damage done to all levels of employment, where even if coping, is doing far less with more stringent demands, the most obvious for those working from home, is Zoom fatigue, but for service workers, especially those in the leisure and entertainment department, survival.

The unemployment rate took a slight drift from 6.3 to 6.2 and that particular change is the focus on the overall picture, than just the headline number, which includes those that have given up looking, or don’t feel that there is anything that either they like, or pays enough money to meet basic needs, especially housing which has increased in most major cities, but extended to smaller regions outside of New York Chicago, and Los Angeles.

Recently, Janet Yellen, now Treasury Secretary, in agreement with Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, and noted, according to The Wall Street Journal, that 6.3 percent is in reality “if properly measured in some sense, is really close to 10 percent.”

Powell added that “Published unemployment rates during Covid have dramatically understated the deterioration in the labor market.”

Of course all eyes are on the 1.9 billion Covid relief bill passed by the House, and awaiting final votes from the Senate. This legislation from President Joe Biden has the ability to not only offer targeted relief, says the White House, but also to help with support for state and local governments, as well as food assistance and extended unemployment benefits to help lift many American from the brink of economic collapse the pandemic has created.

Looking at some of the more concerning areas, leisure and hospitality and retail and manufacturing; helping these industries, and the corresponding cadence of shuttered bars and restaurants, and dwindling customer base with a lifebelt is a necessity.

Complicit with that, is the good news, that much of that increase from February came to the leisure and hospitality field with 355,000, a welcome jump.

The Republicans have voiced their opposition to the bill and its attendants, but have offered few alternatives; but one fear is that the bill will increase inflation well above the 0.2 % target, the Federal Reserve’s mandate. 

As everyone knows we are well below that target and “anxiety about inflation is at a fever pitch, among economists and in markets where long term interest rates have been grinding higher.”

Added to the Biden bill is that his encompassing bill will cause policy makers to focus less on priorities towards inflation, noted the Journal, but also taking a new direction: “accepting and even being enthusiastic about higher inflation,” said Larry Summers, former advisor to Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

The road to recovery is still long and Powell has told all that any rebound from the recession has a long way to go, and the Fed’s growth policies including “rock bottom interest rates and large scale bond buying,” according to The New York Times.

“Even though we saw job gains pick up, it’s clear that many Americans don’t feel comfortable returning to work,” Julia Pollak, an economist at the online job site, Zip Recruiter commented to them. “To her, the report’s most striking feature was the small number of workers — just 50,000 — who rejoined the work force last month.”

Labor force participation rang in at 75.5 %, up from 0.5 percent to 0.7%

On the human scale there is a paradox of people who want work, and are not finding it, in contrast to those who are not enthusiastic about returning to work, with some facing child care, which as we saw last month, has decimated women in the workplace.

Overall labor force participation for women is 5.9% from Last month’s figure of 0.6%, an even further departure from earlier months; and, for women of color 8.5% drop compared to white women at 0.5%.

“Unemployment rates for Black women,” Kristen Broady, a fellow in economics studies at the Brookings Institution and policy director of the think tank’s Hamilton Project said in an interview with CNBC, “are more likely to have a college education, are typically lower than those for Black men. But the unique nature of the Covid recession and resulting childcare issues have disproportionately impacted Black women’s ability to work.”

“In other recessions, children were still in schools,” said Broady. “If you can’t afford child care and are a single mom, you can’t go to work. And that’s more likely to affect black and Hispanic women.”

Powell has noted previously that there is a supportive role for the federal government “might help pull more women into the labor market,” in late February, also reported by the Times, and that better child care is an “area worth looking at.”

“Our peers, our competitors, advanced economy democracies, have a more built up function for child care, and they wind up having more substantially higher labor force participation for women,” in answer to a question from a House member, further noting that the US led once in “female labor participation, a quarter century ago, and we no longer do.”

Racial inequality also shows its hand in the numbers: “The jobless rate among Black workers climbed to 9.9 percent last month from 9.2 percent in January. In contrast, joblessness for white workers ticked down to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent in January, and rates for workers who identify as Hispanic or Asian also fell,” reported the Times.

“We’re still in a pandemic economy,” said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a former Fed economist. “Millions of people are looking for work and willing to work, but they are constrained from working,” she told the Times.

The need for skilled labor is stronger than ever, and in some fields are harder than ever, but some say the opposite, and the Times cited “Avant, an online lender that has its headquarters in Chicago and a call center in Oak Ridge, Tenn., is planning to step up hiring at both locations. The corporate staff, which numbers 257, is expected to grow about 30 percent over the next year, said Margaret Hermes, head of talent . . .”

The outlook for the return of a full economic and jobs recovery remains uncertain and long term unemployment remains as are those that are stuck in part time jobs when they want full time has stubbornly held at 4.1 million.

January Jobs Report: US still bailing water

 Taking hope in hand seemed to be the name of the game for the January Jobs Report as some economists and bankers looked for the best in the 48,000 jobs created as shown by the US Labor Department on Friday. But, while they welcomed the gains, miniscule as they were, in the overall picture since the baseline of February of last year, the overall issues facing American lives mitigated whatever hope that the report might have shown.

The unemployment rate dropped from 6.7 percent in December to 6.3 in January.

“It is a positive sign that we got over those speed bumps and the wheels haven’t completely come off the car,” said Nick Bunker, head of research for the job site Indeed,” to The New York Times.

Some economists had predicted a gain of 100,000 jobs, with a point plus or minus in the jobless rate but these hopes were dashed, despite the looming vaccination rate for Covid; and, a relaxation of some public health restrictions, in certain areas of the country.

Some optimism is expected, along with a rebound, when the so-called herd immunity is achieved, when enough Americans are vaccinated, but with many people still reluctant to take the vaccine, (and a shorter supply of the vaccine itself), this may be more hoped for, than a forthcoming reality.

Continuing the downward trajectory of retail, 38,000 jobs lost, as well as healthcare with 30,000 gone, the path to recovery, at least with January, that goal seems long off.

“There's no way to construe that this was not a weak jobs report,” said John Brusuelas, chief economist at the firm RSM, reported The Washington Post.

They also noted that the increase of 97,000 jobs added to the professional and business services sector (a catch all category) was mitigated when it was revealed that “81,000 of those were temporary.”

With only 1 percent growth in the last quarter of 2020, and “data gathered in the first half of January, makes for the last of President Donald Trump’s tenure.”

Most importantly the nation has not recovered nearly 10 million of the nearly 20 million plus jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. The Washington Post estimated “at this anemic rate of growth, it would need more than 16 years to earn those jobs back.”

Significantly, the labor force participation rate stayed about the same at 61.4 percent from December and down 63.3 percent from February's 2020 baseline, and while holding steady says, to many observers, that there is greater weakness in the labor market than many of them would care to acknowledge. And, with 81.1 percent in January, measured against the baseline from last February, a seesaw pattern can be seen, with “79.8 percent during the worst part of the pandemic,” added the Times.

Standing outside of the banner unemployment rate, “Economists and policymakers are closely watching measures of labor force attachment to gauge how far the job market is from full recovery. After the 2007-9 recession, participation for workers in their prime unexpectedly rebounded as some who were believed to have permanently dropped out of the job market began to look for jobs or take open positions,” they concluded.

Taking a wide shot of the data, it’s easy to agree with The Wall Street Journal that “The unemployment rate decline in January was driven by two factors. More people dropped out of the labor force, meaning they weren’t actively looking for a job and may have grown frustrated with their employment prospects. Also, the number of people reporting themselves as employed increased, consistent with a generally upward trend in hiring since last spring.”

With help from the White House, President Joe Biden relief may be coming sooner than thought, as he keeps a campaign promise, with a $1,9 billion relief package that includes $1,400 checks, and monies to state and local governments, something that has faced Republican opposition since the previous administration, but that may be needed to stem the revenue loss due to Covid and help open public schools to in person learning.

Using a process of budget reconciliation, Biden’s actions, say his supporters, are responding to critical care for families and individuals, especially for low wage service workers, facing further job loss, wage erosion, and the threat of eviction, in what is promising to be a very cold winter.

He told reporters, “This is about people’s lives. This is not just about numbers,” and “they are really hurting. Just look at all the number of people who are needing and seeking mental health help.”

“This jobs report suggests signs of a nascent overall recovery, but food insecurity, costs of caregiving, persistently high unemployment, and small business stagnation necessitate emergency relief that targets those being left behind — especially women, people of color, and lower income workers,” said Nicole Goldin, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council,” reported The Hill.

With the House passing the relief bill, it’s now time for the Senate to help try to right the course of the American economy, time and money are of the essence.

With filibuster intact, can Dems go rogue with COVID bill?

It takes two to tango, says the old expression, and within the opening days of the US Senate, with the Democrats in charge, albeit by a slim majority, there were two senators, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, that tipped the scales to a power sharing agreement accepted by the new Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Sen. McConnell

 While success has many fathers, and failure is an orphan, can yet again, a successful bipartisan effort, be had? And, was there no middle ground for the Senate to fill the seats of the various committees, with the inauguration of President Joe Biden without one? 

It seemed not, and with the Republican dominated Senate as the historical party of “no”, endorse any Democratic legislation, ever?

That logjam, noted The Hill, that McConnell, as well as Chuck Schumer, the new majority leader, wanted to end, and with Manchin and Sinema on the dance card, the die was now set, despite not getting written assurances that Schumer would not change the rules of the filibuster, in his tenure, and an “okay” with reconciliation, (a measure designed for a straight up and down vote), and with VIce President Harris, breaking any ties, there is now agreed governance for lawmakers in the new administration.

There is still the role of the filibuster, and while many have seen it as a time honored tool, others have maligned it, especially as a tool for segregationists, and some Dems were for it, before they were against it, for example, former President Obama, when he was a senator.

As The Wall Street Journal noted last September, “many senators of both parties defended the filibuster as a tool to promote comprose and counter the other party, and viewed ending it as shortsighted because a party newly in power might quickly undo the other’s laws and pass its own.”

Biden has also said that he would prefer its preservation, unless facing GOP opposition that would thwart him in his efforts towards new legislation.

Taking a look back at its origins sheds some light for modern readers: “Using the filibuster to delay or block legislative action has a long history. The term filibuster—from a Dutch word meaning "pirate"—became popular in the 1850s, when it was applied to efforts to hold the Senate floor in order to prevent a vote on a bill,” notes the US Senate website.

“In the early years of Congress, representatives as well as senators could filibuster. As the House of Representatives grew in number, however, revisions to the House rules limited debate. In the smaller Senate, unlimited debate continued on the grounds that any senator should have the right to speak as long as necessary on any issue.”

For those of a certain generation, and perhaps beyond, there was Huey Long of Louisiana in the 1930s infamous for his hours long recitation of Shakespeare, and recipes for southern delicacies; but, on the less humorous side, there is “The record for the longest individual speech [which] goes to South Carolina's J. Strom Thurmond who filibustered for 24 hours and 18 minutes against the Civil Rights Act of 1957.”

History might be written by the victors, but it is also subject to scrutiny, and revision.

Now enter Sara Binder, historian, and academic, whose closer read of the original documents show that “the history of extended debate in the Senate belies the received wisdom that the filibuster was an original, constitutional feature of the Senate. The filibuster is more accurately viewed as the unanticipated consequence of an early change to Senate rules.”

Out of a lengthy and persuasive discussion, Binder, “In testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Rules and Administration, she counters a number of conventionally held notions about the origins and history of the Senate filibuster, and worth noting for the Biden administration, is this: “There are conditions that can lead a bipartisan supermajority to agree to change Senate rules. The minority has often held the upper hand in these contests, however, given the high barrier to reform imposed by inherited Senate rules.”

Most recently, McConnell refused to end the filibuster for President Trump, and along with Sen. Orrin Hatch defended its nearly sacrosanct role in senate negotiations, and  “The GOP knows what it's like to be powerless, and it has used the filibuster to great effect in recent years while in the minority. This is a tool whose value is known to many Senate Republicans because they have relied on it<’ noted The Washington Post, in 2017.

All  of which brings us to the present day where Biden facing the ongoing COVID pandemic and growing pressure to stem the tide of the pandemic, especially on the economic lives of millions of Americans faces a stalwart GOP determined not to pass his $1.9 billion coronavirus relief

Sen. Dick Durbin  of Illinois, the new majority whip, told NBC's "Meet the Press" that "The American people want us to take action, action on this pandemic, action on this economy and on a host of other issues, and if this filibuster has become so common in the Senate that we can't act, that we just sit there helpless, shame on us. Of course we should consider a change in the rule under those circumstances.”

With some justification the GOP has balked at the price tag, but, with increasing new strains from overseas, can America afford to not do everything that it can. Certainly, without federal help as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has noted before, economic relief cannot be had.

Sen. Durbin

Republican lawmakers want to limit relief to vaccines, already in short supply due to Trump officials recalcitrance, and many like Maine senator Susan Collins are looking only at the vaccine, and distribution, without taking stock of the vast needs for the nation's public schools, and state and local aid.

She noted in a recent call that, “it seems premature to be considering a package of this size and scope.”

Looking at the methodology is also Collins' way of distancing herself, and others of her camp, from an outright rejection, on cost alone. But, without the money, direct payments withstanding, how can the US recover?

The new president has said, “Time is of the essence, and I must tell you I’m reluctant to cherry pick and take out one or two items.” 

While no deadline has been set by the White House, it is obvious that time is of the essence, and going it alone is an option, without GOP support, but some supporters, as well as critics, note that would burn through a lot of his political capital, and upset McConnell, but as most Washington insiders know the minority leader is skillful at playing on the contours of an issue, and in the end not cooperating at all.

The Day of Infamy: January 6, 2021

 

One week ago today, on a chilly Wednesday, America’s Capitol was overrun by insurrectionists in a violent mob, urged on by President Trump in a speech riddled with falsehoods, to “take back” the government.

Angered that he lost the 2020 presidential election and after a series of calculated disinformation, Trump’s rallying call contained only a perfunctory call for peace. And,

emboldened by his words, the mob proceeded to smash windows and doors in the Capitol, in an attempt to prevent the formal ,and mostly ceremonial, counting of the electoral votes, presided by Vice President Mike Pence in a joint session of Congress. 

Trump lost the electoral vote in a 306-232 final count, in short a free and fair election in accordance with U.S. election laws.

Shortly after the first objection was raised and debate was to begin, the Senate retired to their chamber, from the House, and then the mob reached the very doors of the chamber as the Secret Service grabbed the vice president and then the Speaker of the House Chuck Schumer, followed in turn by Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell,and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

In a well publicized, and well planned effort, hundreds of thousands of people poured into the Congress, replete with guns, pipe bombs, Molotov cocktails; and, with rumors of the possible use of tear gas, lawmakers hid under their desks, with gas masks on, and some remanded to the House gallery, lying on the floor as the insurrectionists surged into the chamber, some with plastic zip ties, presumably as handcuffs for “errant” lawmakers, chiefly Pence and the long hated Pelosi.

One elderly woman, according to USA Today, yelled at Capitol Police officers, “Tell Pelosi we’re coming for her.

The scene was shocking and unforgettable, the most frightening act towards American democracy since the Whiskey Rebellion of 1794 that threatened the early days of the republic; and, the burning of the building by the British in the War of 1812, but no one had thought that this horror was possible, as image after image gave the impression of the much maligned “banana republics” of Hollywood, or the march toward the Duma, in the Tauride Palace in St. Petersburg, during the last days of the Russian Imperial government, and the beginning of The Russian Revolution.

Neither were expected in the United States, an 18th century experiment that became the world’s leading democracy, especially in its entrance into World War I, and its role in ending World War II.

To see the unfolding events and later images made many Americans awestruck and saddened, ourselves included, while still others were in tears.

The Capitol Police with a vast underestimation of the rally turned down the use of The National Guard, and its chief, Steven Sund, even rejected offers of help by the FBI as “extremists were climbing Capitol Hill” as the vandals roamed halls, stealing official documents and posed for pictures with their feet on the desks of the Speaker in her office, and on the dais.

Lying at the core of the mob was the insidious odor of racism, as gangs of white supremaicsts, spearheading the call to Washington: The Proud Boys, The Bugallo Boys, The 3 Percent and others whose extremist views have been  allowed to foment over decades in America, and whose rise and now has manifested itself in what is truly our 21st century day of infamy.

The racist core, and the desire for a new civil war seems to replace the one that ended in the 19th century, and has been given new impetus by the inflammatory rhetoric of Trump, who with this scorched earth movements, has given these groups what they want, a hero, a leader, and an emergence from the shadows.

In an appearance on Tuesday in Texas, the president refused to take the blame for his incendiary actions saying according to The New York TImes, ““People thought what I said was totally appropriate,” Mr. Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, en route to Alamo, Texas, where he was set to visit the border wall. Instead, Mr. Trump claimed that racial justice protests over the summer were “the real problem.”

“If you look at what other people have said, politicians at a high level about the riots during the summer, the horrible riots in Portland and Seattle and various other places, that was a real problem,” he said.

There are more revelations: members of law enforcement and even local government leaders joining in the fracas, and with some “mom and pop” folks saying that Jan. 6th was the best day of their lives.

What we face as a nation today is a moral reckoning, and the realization that we are no longer, the City on the Hill, or the New Jerusalem; and, will be a problem for years to come as not simply the 70 million voters who voted for Trump four years ago, but the these groups that have energized the violence and the rhetoric that has turned whatever accomplishments for racial and gender equality, the U.S. has created, on its head.

Many in the media as well as on the streets and the shops have been angered that the majority white crowd that caused the horror were simply allowed to melt away, while this summer, Blacks peacefully demonstrating caused such alarm that virtual armies were sent out, not to mention the clearing out of a  multiracial crowd of protestors in Washington’s Lafayette Square, was dispersed with tear gas and rubber bullets, so that the president could hold a photo op in front of St. John’s Episcopal Church, holding a Bible.

When some Black hooligans hijacked peaceful demonstrations ro racial justice, in Chicago, they were derided again, and again, by whites, but these white insurrections have not been condemned at all by most of white Chicagoans.

The task before us, as a nation, is how do we go forth?

Calls for charges of sedition may be one of many steps to hold the perpetrators accountable. 

While lawyers and academics argue the fine points Bill Kennedy writing for The Baltimore Sun, noted the following in his research: “Overt conduct, such as speech and organisation that tends toward rebellion against the established order. Sedition often includes subversion of a constitution and incitement of discontent toward, or rebellion against established authority. It may include any commotion, though not aimed at direct and open violence against the laws.”

The trajectory of lies, misinformation and disinformation and the subversion of human dignity also, has sadly led to this debacle, and, Kennedy also noted that “The members of Congress who also fed their constituents a litany of lies about the legality of the election and stoked the fires of discontent, many to try to preserve their standing with that portion of the electorate and stay in office, share in the wrongdoing and should also be held accountable.”

Ultimately President Trump, who was impeached for the second time Wednesday, has created the establishment of a cult which has led to this violent episode that perpetuates a skewed version of reality, both of law and content.

It is worth noting that Andrew Sullivan writing in NYMag.com, two years ago, derided Trump and “his ludicrous reality show” which has led his followers to state “the truth is whatever he says it is.”

December 2020 Jobs Report sinks with COVID

 

Hopes sank for a V shaped recovery when the U.S. Labor Dept. released its December Jobs report for 2020 with a drastic drop in non farm job creation of only 140,000, and a still weak labor force participation rate of 61.5 percent that combined with the November report showed that the COVID pandemic has wreaked, and will continue to wreak havoc on the American economy, as it has in most of the developed world, and beyond.

The $900 billion relief package that Congress passed in December arrived too late to have a significant impact on an already burdensome economy, but it is expected that the incoming Biden administration will continue more stimulus payments, both to individuals and also to state and local economies, both who face dire consequences without help.

Election week markets, recalled Jill Schlesinger, CBS News business analyst, in an earlier column, noted the market's reaction, with an S&P soaring 7.3 percent, “the best presidential election week since 1932.”

Now with a Democratic majority in the Senate, after the Georgia runoff elections, corporate America may not be as sanguine as they were with a Republican controlled Senate, and many are hazarding a guess as to any tax increases.

As we recalled earlier King Covid reigns, and with recent surges in the pandemic and business restructuring and local and state governments adding more restrictions Wall Street as well as Main Street will continue to suffer.

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell noted just after the election, “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus,” and continued relief set against the promise of the two major vaccines can offer hope to millions of workers.

Those especially hard hit are those in the service sector, and especially those that depend on in person interaction such as leisure and travel with $500,00 cuts in December, and restaurants which are acutely vulnerable, faced 372,000 in job losses, and hotels with 24,000.

Adding to the losses were private schools and colleges with 60,000 job losses creating economic havoc in smaller towns where they are often the main employer.

There were some gains, perhaps not strong enough to sustain, but manufacturing rose by 38,000 jobs, construction by 51,000 and retail in a surprising spin 120,000 jobs added by a loosening of restrictions and warmer weather that extended into Fall.

That hoped for V recovery has now clearly become a K shaped with the upper branch focused on the managerial and professional class, mostly white, and the bottom branch with lower waged service workers, mostly Black and Brown people, whose future seems bleak, especially those who are restaurant workers, and whose brief surge during the summer, has hit a low with the advent of cold weather and a dearth of outdoor dining.

If this continues, many households will not only face an uncertain future, but also can contribute to a slack in the nation’s GDP. And, as Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said to The New York Times, “Most notably, this is still very much a low wage recession, and the losses where we first saw them when the pandemic hit.”

It is worth noting that Labor does not count those who are not looking for work (who may feel there are not jobs available), or are caring for children, or elderly relatives, including those with disabilities.

Contributing to long term joblessness are those the Times noted who have criminal background records, and the disabled, “that make it hard to find jobs even in the best of times.”

Biden said, according to The Wall Street Journal, ““The bottom line is the jobs report shows we need to provide more immediate relief for working families and businesses—now,”. . .. “He also said he would seek to increase the federal minimum wage to at least $15 an hour, calling on Congress to pass the measure.”

Equally problematic as we noted last month are women who are now forced to care for children, and other dependents, have left the workforce, especially those who worked in service areas; aided and with partners or spouses who are higher wage earners.

The subsequent void has cut back prime age working women to 75 percent of the workforce in December from 77.1 in February of 2020, before the pandemic.

The racial breakdown has shown that Blacks have made a moderate stability of 9.9 percent employment rate against the general rate of 6.7, against 10.3 percent before; but, Hispanics have increased to 9.3 percent, from 8.4 in November, as active participants in lower wage and service sectors.

What concerns most economists, labor leaders and lawmakers is that the country has lost half a million jobs in 2020, the most significant decline “on a percentage basis since the aftermath of World War II.”

Of equal concern are state and local governments who as we have seen did not gain monies from the most recent aid bill, but have faced budget cuts and layoffs, since they are mandated to have a balanced budget, and who employ 13 percent of employers in the United States.

There have been 1.4 million of those jobs lost since last February, the pre pandemic marker that is the baseline for comparison, with 51,000 alone last month.

Some believe like Swonk that this is a low wage recession, driven by the pandemic and that shoring up the service sector with financial relief, and the vaccine, there might be a recovery, and Bloomberg reported that “Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. “It does show that if we can get control of the pandemic, then we can restore economic activity and labor market conditions over the course of this year. It’s a pandemic-driven number, a pandemic-driven composition.”

Wage growth, as can be imagined, has declined, and they added,“For the full year, payrolls declined by 9.37 million, the most in records back to 1939 and exceeding the combined slump in 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession and its aftermath.”

What lies aheads depends on so many factors, as we have seen, and while remaining hopeful, this optimism is tempered by caution, and especially with the vaccine rollout, and the policies of the incoming Biden administration, aided by its experienced cabinet, and its now Democratic majority in Congress.

COVID-19 was the number one story for 2020

Photo by Long Truong on Unsplash

Without a doubt the number one news story across the planet was the COVID-19 pandemic that attacked all countries and all social classes, upending the world’s economy and shuttering businesses and sending people teetering on the edge of financial disaster and caused 1.81 million deaths.

As 2020 draws to a close we can see close up the effects on capitalism and its seemingly sound foundation, but in reality showed the fragility of a system that many had taken for granted, with some sense of a safety net, to realize that for many it was an illusion, and showed the weakness for those who were seemingly adherents, especially those who were Black and Brown often, tethered to low wage service jobs, and who could often find no port for safety,, and risked exposure and death.

In America, the piecemeal health system, locally governed, proved inadequate as it attempted to grapple with the fragility, and inadequacy of systems that were not prepared to stem the tide of a new coronavirus, coupled with a national leader who feared that admitting reality would panic his people; and, ironically affecting those who were already panicking as death’s cold hand took their loved ones lives, leaving the dead to bury the dead.

Class systems in this country remained stalwart, despite objections as when reminded that not all people could work from home told us, “We’ll stay home so that they can go to work.”

This is an opportune time to makes us pause to examine these cracks and fissures, both economic, and social that can be healed, and made whole, not simply with the the vaccine, but also the will to change the systems, and roles, that have not worked, and the bravery to discern what can remain, and what can be discarded.

“We have a chance to do something extraordinary. As we head out of this pandemic we can change the world. Create a world of love. A world where we are kind to each other. A world where we are kind no matter what class, race, sexual orientation, what religion or lack of or what job we have. A world we don't judge those at the food bank because that may be us if things were just slightly different. Let love and kindness be our roadmap,” noted Johnny Corn.

We, as well as world leaders, must realize the infinite hazards of a world where people, even in America, are turning to food banks to feed their families;, and it is worth noting that in  many instances these are families, who were previously donors, not clients.

Sadly, as the vaccines have been approved in the United States as well as the United Kingdom there are others in a rush to save themselves are buying in excess amounts, but are also jeopardizing third world countries.

Fear of course is potent, but also as Marie Curie noted: “Nothing in life is to be feared; it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.” 

With that goal in mind, the need to understand the basics of the virus has been complicated by conspiracy theories, and a lack of basic science knowledge, indeed, what a virus is, to avoid hearing statements, such as ‘If you take Vitamin C you won’t get it” or “my kids eat well, really well, so I am not afraid for them.”

Acceptance is also complicated by a burgeoning anti-science stance that is tied to anti-vaccine behavior that in the past has increased measles among children, but now threatens to slow the progress towards policing the virus, if not completely eradicating it.

Preparing the way is also on the horizon, as scientists are banding together to harness the next virus, a string of which has plagued humanity since the Bubonic Plague, and now in the great beyond.

The old lyrics by Simon and Garfunkel, from “The Sound of Silence” have haunted us recently and are worth repeating:

“Hello darkness, my old friend

I've come to talk with you again

Because a vision softly creeping

Left its seeds while I was sleeping

And the vision that was planted in my brain

Still remains

Within the sound of silence.”

Let it not be. There is the darkness before the light, said a wise man.

November Jobs Report is a stinker

In a growing sign that the US economy has been shattered by the COVID pandemic the Labor Department on Friday reported that only 245,000 non-farm jobs have been added to the American market, and conjoined by a 6.7 percent unemployment rate, they both contribute to the economic free-fall that has been predicted by some economists.

As we have noted previously the effect on American individuals and families has been devastating with evictions, long lines at food banks and homelessness, and with unemployment benefit extensions expiring on the day after Christmas, the raging dilemma for most people is panic.

The Hill noted that the down-slide in the nation is “fading at a much steeper rate than had been expected. Economists projected the U.S. to add roughly 400,000 jobs last month.”

The corresponding decrease in labor force participation has contributed to the decrease in the unemployment rate, but as has been established, that is only part of the picture, since the figure does not capture how many people have given up looking for work; and, those who want full time work, but are stuck in part time work.

“The CARES Act was a critical lifeline for the economy through the pandemic’s first phase, but rear-view economics cannot inform the current state of the recovery," wrote Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a Friday analysis,” also from The Hill.

“In November, the number of workers jobless for at least 27 weeks — economists’ barometer for “long-term” unemployment — grew by 385,000 to 3.9 million,” according to CNBC.

The free-fall can be seen, even with revisions, from 672 jobs  in September and 638 in October for the number of jobs added. And,  despite a gain of 11.6 million, there remains 21 million jobs lost to the effects of the pandemic.

In fact, the labor force participation rate has decreased from 61.7 to 61.5; many of which have hit workers of prime age, those between 25 years to 54 years old, which has decreased from baseline measures of 81.2 in October.

Taking a closer look it’s easy to see that King Covid, as some have dubbed it, has devastated even the effects of a lukewarm recovery, and this is clearly seen with the restaurant and beverage industry where after the earlier shutdowns in the Spring, led to a hiring bump with the warm weather, only to see an end to indoor dining, as colder weather approached, plus the loss of revenue from frequent carryout and delivery, that in many cases has not been enough to pay the rent and salaries of most restaurants.

While the leisure and hospitality field, overall, gained 31,000 jobs; it has yet to recover the 3.1 million jobs lost since February, and “retailers lost 35,000 jobs in November when stores typically load up on seasonal hires for the holiday shopping rush.”

Part of that loss of holiday hires has been due to fears of Covid, and especially from older Americans who have often been a large pool to draw from, for those jobs,and who are among the more vulnerable groups that fear exposure.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi seemed optimistic on Friday that the House and Senate could soon reach a bipartisan agreement on an ever elusive pandemic stimulus deal after she and Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, agreed to try to find a common ground that could be worked into a large year end spending package.

“That would be our hope because that is the vehicle leaving the station,” Ms. Pelosi, Democrat of California, said at a news conference in the Capitol Friday morning, a day after her conversation with Mr. McConnell, Republican of Kentucky. The phone call marked their first conversation since the election,” also reported by The Hill.

The Dems have come down on their original price of $2.2 trillion dollars, and it also contains, at least initially, 300 billion to smaller businesses, $160 billion to state and local governments and the much anticipated, and needed extension of unemployment benefits, due to expire at the end of this year.

Also up for the challenge are the end of eviction moratorium, which community leaders have noted, puts many families at the risk of being on the streets,

November’s report also shows what was once a plus, now a minus: the decrease in women’s employment, which was a high less than three months ago, and even a surge this time last year, but now with more and more women, mostly wage earners, being out of work, due to Covid layoffs they have returned home. And, those who were white collar professionals found that with schools closed, made the decision to, become stay at home mothers, and help supervise remote learning for their children.

For women of color, often head of households the fall has been dramatic in areas that they tend to dominate and in education, in large cities 21,000 jobs have been lost overall, and for those concentrated in cities with large Black and Brown populations such as Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, the exponential effect on working families is significant.

“This dynamic is perhaps most pronounced among Black workers — the only racial group with an unemployment rate above 10% even after months of economic improvement.

“Black unemployment is STILL nearly twice the white rate,” Gbenga Ajilore, senior economist at the Center for American Progress, said Friday in a tweet,” CNBC added.

For perspective they said: “Black or African-American workers had a jobless rate of 10.3% in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, White workers had a 5.9% rate. Asian workers had a 6.7% jobless rate while Hispanic or Latino workers had an 8.4% rate.”

Airlines who suffered the early effects of the pandemic are now facing some hard choices and Southwest Airlines announced on Friday that unless the union would agree to concessions, 7,000 workers would lose their jobs, nearly 10 percent of the workforce.

Most bachelor's degrees in America are awarded to women, and the resulting brain drain from the corporate office of those who decided to stay at home has made a slight bump in temporary workers, but at a higher hourly wage, this may not be a mainstay.

Some light was seen with an increase of 46,000 for health care workers, and 27,000 customer service jobs, with some expected due to online shoppers, of 145,000 transportation and warehouse jobs, but with the exception of the latter most are tenuous at best, without Congressional help.

“This is an ugly report,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton, whose ranking was perhaps the most honest of those economists interviewed in the national media.

Updated Dec. 6, 2020