Another presidential debate? Now, or never?

 

Nancy Pelosi was right when she said that former Vice-President Joe Biden should not debate President Trump, for what viewers, and listeners heard, was an attempt by both the moderator, Chris Wallace and Biden to have a substantive discussion of the issues that were important to the American electorate, only to have Trump bully the proceedings in a manner that was embarrassing to watch, and a sad example to our foreign allies of the world’s foremost democracy.

Now that the president has emerged from his treatment for COVID-19 at Walter Reed Hospital, his carefully staged entry to the South Portico of the White House, and the dramatic removal of his mask, with glimpses of unmasked people in the Blue Room, it’s a sign that it is business as usual, for Trump,despite what seems to have been an urgent airlift from the White House, and dozens of staffer, allies and personnel who have shown to be positive for the virus.

Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley has called the first debate “a grotesque carnival” and it’s a safe bet that the second debate would have been much the same, since the commission tasked with the debates has considered cutting off the microphone of the candidate, if they go on too long. This, of course, would have not stopped Trump, who might have stomped around the stage, much like he did when debating Hillary Clinton in 2016.

That is all a moot point since the debate on Oct. 15 has been cancelled since the president, on Fox News berated a virtual format, and that his mic might have been turned off, and in his words:that's "not what debating's all about" and "they cut you off whenever they want."

While no one expected a replay of the Lincoln-Douglas debates or even the Kennedy-Nixon debates, what was expected was a view of  Biden and Trump’s positions facing America at this critical juncture.

It’s become commonplace to acknowledge that the American electorate is largely uninformed on the issues, and that most make a gut reaction, often based on ephemeral impressions; but, at best prudential debates, in the 21st century, can help either candidate win over undecided, and or independent voters. And, in this contest, that is critical.

We appreciated what Bonnie Kristian had to say in her article for This Week: “Both latest campaign statements express the farcical notion that another debate is a needful exercise in accountability to the American people, as if these 90 minutes will expose some truth two literal lifetimes in the public eye haven't revealed. But the disagreement over format offers Trump and Biden an option of refusing to debate while insisting their hearts have no greater desire. Tuesday's veep debate could be the last we'll see this year.”

We think that she might have been on a keener and more welcome level when she noted that, “A few tough interviews or unvetted town hall questions would give voters more insight into a candidate's positions and governing skills than the debates do now.”

In our graduate school we saw a video reenactment of the Lincoln Douglas debates and the oratory aside, what impressed us most was the command of the issues of the day, and that the candidates had actually prepared for the debate, and an electorate that was educated to the issues of the day, and while the video had its drawbacks, (with the arrival of a Ford Mustang hovering in the background), the points that that the actors made, reading the actual words of these men gave credence to being informed voters.

Even a look back at John Kennedy being interviewed on the old Jack Paar show revealed a mind, and an audience that was better read, and actually cared for what the nation could look like under the direction of a future executive.

In the 21st century, debates seem more like fights in the Roman Colosseum with people cheering for and rooting and hooting over each other’s positions, and while not dissimilar of late night broadcasts of British parliamentary sessions, the latter are at least intelligible, if not amusing, with such erudite put downs that offer both humor and intelligence, where across the pond, it’s a ratings game, where blood seems to be sought after.

Then again, our unequalled namesake had this to say to ABC7 in Amarillo, Texas, "I don't ever see the debate going away. A, there's too much tradition. B, I think there is a lot of utility in it that both voters and the candidates see," said said Dr. Darrell Lovell, assistant professor of political science at West Texas A&M University

Speaking of Kennedy, it was Newton Minow, later his FCC chief, is the architect of the debates, and is the author of “Inside the Presidential Debates: Their Improbable Past and Promising Future.”

NPR News noted that “In a 1955 memo to his boss, attorney Newton Minow first suggested the idea of presidential debates. In the decades since, these debates have become some of the biggest and most influential moments in political history. And Newt, who serves on the commission that sponsors them, has watched them evolve first-hand.”

And, it is worthwhile noting that he “currently serves on the board of the Commission on Presidential Debates. He has been chairman of PBS and was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Barack Obama in 2016.”

In separate interviews he had this to say about Biden and Trump in their wrestling match, ““This is the first time that the candidates have not obeyed the rules,” Minow said. “They have made this opportunity to educate and serve the voters, and turned it into a totally disgusting performance in the exercise of the Democratic process.”

“I was not only distressed, I was disgusted because our purpose in having the debates is to serve the viewer, to give the viewer some valuable information before the viewer votes and instead we got a wrestling match,” he said.

With due respect to the old guard, we’d say,pull the plug, but one cannot help admire this older school of gentlemanly thought when he opined:

“Still, Minow believes in the importance of debates. They allow voters to evaluate a candidate’s ability, intellect and personality, he said, and live television creates a unique opportunity to show how candidates think on their feet and deal with the situation.”

Still a believer in the ideals of The New Frontier, it gave us pause when we read this, ““We’re not going to give up because we feel that our purpose is a very valuable purpose in a democracy and that is to give the voter the information about their choice, and that’s essential in a democracy.”

Can it be? Or do we need to wait another decade, or two?

Harris v. Pence: It's still about the pandemic

 

With their orders “in-hand” and “in-head”, Sen. Kamala Harris, vice-presidential candidate for Joe Biden and Mike Pence, Vice-President for incumbent president, Donald Trump stepped onto the stage at the arts center of the University of Utah Wednesday night, they represented their bosses, and had tasks at hand: for Harris to define, and identity, who she was to an audience that mostly does not know her, and for Pence to hit the reset button, for an Administration that has slipped badly in the polls, mostly for the way that it has mishandled the COVID-19 crisis, and may lose the election,as evidenced by Biden subsequently capturing in a recent CNN poll a good chunk of possible electoral votes.

Hitting that button proved difficult for Pence as he faced the former California prosecutor as she attacked both he and the president, for their mishandling of the pandemic, after an early warning, and the many foreign policy fumbles that cost America confidence from foreign allies and friends.

Harris’s “straight out of the gate” tactic was well-timed with criticism flowing across the media about not simply the missteps made early on when the president had the data, but the way in which the president’s positivity and hospitalization for the virus was handled, with information that was kept from the public by his personal physician, and others at the Walter Reed Hospital.

While many supporters were pleased with her opening salvo, some were surprised that she did not follow through with a fastball focusing on the president’s positivity as a symptom of the White House response to the pandemic.

Since this was a “one-shot affair” (there is only one vicepresidencial debate) Harris could have been saving it for Biden, but regardless, she left viewers with this one memorable line: "The American people have witnessed what is the greatest failure of any presidential administration in the history of our country.”

Predictably, Pence’s answer was scripted, and said that early action from the administration saved lives, but the record does not show that.

The civil tone of the debate was a welcome contrast to the one between Biden and Trump last week, but it’s clear from the numbers that the Trump camp has a lot to worry about.

An example is the CNN poll where, “the Democratic presidential nominee crosses the 270 threshold for the first time this year. If you add up the states that are currently rated as solidly in his camp (203 electoral votes) and those leaning in his direction (87 electoral votes), it brings his total to 290 electoral votes.”

The singular issue that is at work here is the administration's weak response to the pandemic, and as we noted in May: “President Trump’s early statements were positive and reassuring, but quickly devolved into a series of questionable statements that made many anxious, as if he was dismissing the threat to Americans, and some observers, and critics, said that this was done, in order to preserve his major reelection plank: that the economy was strong stable and secure.”

At the debate, Harris, in full prosecutorial style, gave her opening statement, and then followed it up with a direct appeal to the jury: "I want to ask the American people: How calm were you when you were panicked about where you were going to get your next roll of toilet paper?" and then, "How calm were you when your kids were sent home from school and you didn't know when they could go back? How calm were you when your children couldn't see your parents because you were afraid they could kill them?"

Trump, while on a state visit to India, at that time, said that it was all under control. 

What the evening offered was a more substantive discussion, despite the well-rehearsed lines, and gave showed that not only was the U.S. facing a national emergency of its own, but its moral compass, with a leader who remarkably and routinely verbally attacks men and women in the armed forces by calling them  “suckers”.

In one remarkable moment, last year, Trump asked aides what had happened at Pearl Harbor to merit his presence at a memorial service.

Yet, it was the presence of the pandemic, the third “person” in the room that gave credence to the sharp differences between not only Harris and Pence, and by turn the direction that America could turn to.

It was revealing that Pence, sidestepped a direct answer towards the administration and said instead, “"When you say what the American people have done over these last eight months hasn't worked, that's a great disservice to the sacrifices the American people have made," the vice president said. "The reality is, Dr. Fauci said everything that he told the president in the Oval Office the president told the American people."

This side step is emblematic of recent White House actions, the most notable being the Sept. 26t “superspreader” event in the White House Rose Garden when Trump introduced Amy Coney Barrett, his Supreme Court nominee, an occasion where almost no one was wearing masks, including Barrett herself, and was followed by a reception in the Blue Room, where again, few masks were in evidence and the White House butlers (almost all of whom are Black) were exposed to the virus, and also the invited guests, staff, and the Marine Guards.

The response has been that, like the fundraiser at the Trump golf resort in Bedminster, N.J., shortly after he was diagnosed as positive for Covid, was that there was rapid testing done, which has not shown reliability, and can also lead to false positives.

While no political observers can state that any debate will change voters' minds, this one was notable for its general tone of civility, and only a few interruptions, (that were quickly squashed by Harris) but it also gave viewers, and listeners the opportunity to see two possible future presidents whose bosses are septuagenarians, and that was well worth the price of admission.

September Jobs Report shows U.S. economy sliding fast

September’s jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department, released on Friday - the last before the election - is not one to be praised, despite some bright spots, and shows the pending doom for much of America’s workforce, who with the loss of the extension of $600.00 in unemployment benefits, among  other factors, has threatened their ability to  pay rent, and put food on the table. 

The gain of only 661 non-farm jobs hit economists, and observers hard, since they expected 800,000, gave earnest looks to Congress for relief, since the pattern that September has shown, despite net job gains over the last five months, has had the side effect of decreased consumer spending; and the looming spectre of permanent job loss, for some, makes for a bleak outlook.

CNBC reported that, “The decline in the unemployment rate came along with a 0.3 percentage point drop in the labor force participation rate to 61.4%, representing a decline of nearly 700,000.”

“However, a separate, more encompassing measure [the household survey] that counts discouraged workers and those working part-time for economic reasons also saw a notable decline, falling from 14.2% to 12.8%,” they added.

On the political side, the news also pokes a hole in the firm hope from President Trump that a strong economy would keep him in office another four years.

Notably, lower wage workers have yet been called back to work, while the higher wage earners are on the front burner, giving an even further push downwards to low end wage workers.

Of equal importance are the type of jobs that have been part of the rebound, and some have questioned both their value and the effect on wages, "The jobs being added aren't the jobs that were lost, because we're still in an uncontrolled pandemic -- people are going back to worse-quality jobs without increased pay," said Kate Bahn, director of labor market policy and economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, to CNN.com.

With many of them working in restaurants, now facing cooler weather, and a dearth of outdoor diners, those in the East and North, owners may see a further decline in their ability to stay open, and make their obligatory rent payment, and close behind that, their payroll, especially for their servers, kitchen help and bus people.

For some, the good news was that the numbers fell for those stuck in part-time jobs, seemed to be an omen of good fortune, but that’s not the linchpin of a recovering economy, especially one firmly ruled by the COVID-19 virus which has severely hampered even the best of a laissez-faire economy.

As the Report noted, this, “declined by 1.3 million to 6.3 million,reflecting a decrease in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions. The number of involuntary part-time workers is 2.0 million higher than in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.”

Help from Washington is in order, says Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, but House Democrats and the Senate GOP majority may be talking again, but the conversations have not led to a resolution, and with Trump’s recent diagnosis of having the virus (and a growing number of lawmakers also becoming positive), it seems that any gatherings of elected officials, for a vote, may be eliminated, even if there is an agreement between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin.

The New York Times reported, “House Democrats on Thursday pushed through a $2.2 trillion stimulus plan that would provide aid to families, schools, restaurants, businesses and airline workers, and on Friday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed fresh optimism that a bipartisan deal for a broad coronavirus package could emerge out of her talks with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.”

That might change with the Senate anxious to confirm Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court, and there were rumors, on Sunday, that there would be virtual votes, for that purpose.

With many in the media being quoted as seeing the economy in a”free fall”, or “losing momentum”, or “steam”, all have become commonplace adjectives, yet it’s clear that the American economy is, at best, in the first instance: a free fall, and that the only salvation lies in an agreement between Pelosi and Mnuchin, with the final word from Leader Mitch McConnell in the Senate.

Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm  Grant Thornton in Chicago,was quoted from The New York Times saying, “It’s  disturbing that we’re seeing such a dramatic slowdown in employment gains as we head into the Fall,” and added, “This is a red flag, we need aid now.”

Job loss, permanent job loss, is becoming a reality for many, and those losses are not only in the private sector, but the public as well, that began with the Spring shutdowns that slowed the revenue stream.

“Permanent jobs losses rose by more than 300,000. That’s not a good thing. The labor force participation rate declined, which pulled the overall unemployment rate down. That’s not a good sign, either,” said Kathy Jones, head of fixed income at Charles Schwab. “We’re looking at state and local government layoffs, we’re looking at a higher level of permanent job losses and more people leaving the workforce. None of that is good for the long run,” she told CNBC.

While job loss on this level is neither desired, nor welcome, it’s as sure as rain that it will come; especially for large cities such as Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, showing at average a possible loss of 2.5 million jobs with a net loss of 345,000.

For women who had been making employment gains over the last several months there was a decrease in participation in the labor market from 56.1 in August to 55.6 in September reflecting the need to either cut hours, or quit altogether to take care of, and or, teach children, alongside remote learning.

Close on the heels of losses and participation rates are job cuts, and Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported that cuts for September of 2020 were 186 percent higher than a year ago, in the same month.

“We are setting new records for job cuts even though things have improved since the earliest days of the pandemic,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

“These are uncertain times for everyone, as many states are experiencing an uptick in the number of COVID-19 cases. It is clear we still have a long way to go before many industries can return to normal.”

 “Year to date, the reason cited for the most announced cuts is COVID-19, which has caused 1,091,923 cuts in 2020. In September, market conditions caused 45,213 of the announced cuts, followed by 33,713 job cuts due to demand downturn, and 11,562 cuts due to restructuring. COVID-19 is the reason for 8,529 cuts last month.”

The most outstanding of the cuts were those from airlines and the announcement from American airlines  and United that they would cut more than 32,000 workers if a deal was not reached by Congress was a spur for negotiations.

“Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California on Friday called for airlines to delay laying off or furloughing tens of thousands of airline workers, promising that the House would act in some accord to address the expiration of a program that has kept airline workers employed,” also said the Times.

We’ve noted before, that it’s all over but for the fighting, and it seems that Congress, especially with the Senate, that this begins, as America faces tragic consequences, including homelessness and food insecurity, in the coming months without Congressional help.

Amy Coney Barrett speed walks to the Supreme Court

 Without the usual drama from the White House President Donald Trump announced his nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy left by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, as widely reported before Saturday, as Amy Coney Barrett,, a move not only designed to continue the pattern of conservative judges he has appointed to the Court, most recently with Brett Kavanaugh, but also Neil Gorsuch, and also a string of appellate judges, as she has been..

The 48 year old South Bend resident is known for her conservative views on both religion, as a Roman Catholic, but hand in glove with the official policy from the Vatican, as an anti-abortionist. Thus Trump scores two strokes: an anti-abortionist, a “staunch” Catholic, who can get the Catholic vote, and while their voters tend to be more diverse than thought, a recent Pew Research poll showed that  “Nearly six-in-ten White Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, marking a big shift since 2008, when four-in-ten (41%) supported the GOP.”

In America the Catholic membership has dwindled down,with a new denomination of “ex-Catholic” appearing on many surveys; but despite that there is the leavening presence of Hispanics keeping the pews full. 

But, then there is the demarcation from that candidates, Catholic or otherwise, take note of, said Pew: “Most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%), meanwhile, identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, a share that has remained fairly stable in the past decade. (Two-thirds of Catholic registered voters are White, while a quarter are Hispanic, according to data collected in 2018 and 2019.)”

While the presidential race will not be decided on religion alone, there will be tighter focus on the dverty of Catholics, be they conservative, or liberal, such as Democratic rival, Joe Biden.

On the horizon with a potential conservative majority, is the pending potential demise of Roe V. Wade, the die seems to be cast for a showdown, not only on abortion, but the last few shreds of the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare; and, the final destruction of  Barack Obama’s legislative legacy.

Looking at these as targets also positions the president for a firmer chance of staying in office, than merely maligning the post office with false fears, and the somewhat odd attack on absentee ballots, as of late, and of mail in ballots, earlier, as being totally untrustworthy, or a Satanic tool of the Democrats.

Of course the president doesn't seem to realize, or at least publicly acknowledge, that not only are older Trump fans likely to vote by mail, rather than risk the wrath of King Covid, but also is an option heralded by the Republican National Committee, and as we have seen, or rather heard, robocalls made by his own daughter, Ivanka, as an advocate.

If one needs a scorecard to track the players and their moves, then it is easy to see why: it’s apparent that with Joe Biden doing well in poll after poll, that planning an all out assault might give Trump one more chance to stay in the Oval Office.including Barrett.

She may also prove to be a firewall in a contested vote count, and as he has stated, might have to go to the Supreme Court, in a possible replay of Gore V. Bush in 2000, but as some have said, the tool needed, is to demand a recount, a road not taken by Gore, but one that Trump favors, say some.

The announcement in the White House Rose Garden (ironically recently restored to more resemble the original Kennedy design by the late Mrs. Paul Mellon) was a smiling scene with only a few masks, when Trump praised the judge, warmly saying, “She is a woman of unparalleled achievement, towering intellect, sterling credentials and unyielding loyalty to the constitution.”

While it’s been reported that even her detractors had good things to say about her, it’s also equally important to realize the trajectory of the Court,  trending right, from the high court to the Appeals, and that a Biden Administration, could very well be held hostage by those judges despite the smiles and the assurances of ruling only on content,or textualism as Barret has exclaimed.

At this juncture of extreme partisanship and a GOP Senate majority it’s unlikely that the Democrats can do much to prevent Barrett from being confirmed, and the example of the pilloried, and defeated, Reagan Supreme Court nominee in 1987 of  Robert Bork (Biden was then  Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman) is only a distant memory. In short, the chances of Barrett being ‘Borked” are slim to none.

In an ironic twist, Bork was not only Catholic, but the father of what is now called textualism, or what old-schoolers referred to as “original intent.”

One cannot, as we have seen before, delete the role of religion in American politics, as it has traveled from the Evangelical trail of support of two decades ago, with George W. Bush to now, to  the rise of many conservative Catholics.

If Barrett is nominated,she would be the 6th Catholic on the bench, and the impact, as we have noted, would topple the more liberal views of Sonia Sotomayor.

The Associated Press noted that,” John Gehring, Catholic program director at the Washington-based clergy network Faith in Public Life, said Catholics are major players in the conservative legal movement who invest in law schools and in well-funded networks that often serve as pipelines to high-profile judicial appointments.”

“The Catholic intellectual tradition has produced giants of liberal thought as well, but in recent decades the right has done a better job building institutions that nurture pathways to power,” Gehring said via email.

“The problem is not how many justices are Catholic,” he added. “The cause for alarm is the court’s ideological lurch to the right, and what that means for health care, voting rights and other moral issues at stake in this election.”

As The Hill noted in its report, “Barrett became something of a favorite in conservative circles during her 2017 confirmation hearing, when Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) raised concerns about the judge’s Catholic faith factoring into her rulings. The senator at one point told Barrett, “The conclusion one draws is that the dogma lives loudly within you” — an epithet that some conservative Catholics went on to wryly embrace, printing the phrase on T-shirts and coffee mugs.”

Despite some associations with a Catholic charismatic group who adopted some evangelical streaks, such as speaking in tongues, Barrett, despite her response to Feinstein, seems embedded in a pre Conciliar religiosity, that gave a direct indication when she quoted the old Baltimore Catechism (of the 1950s and 1960s), when “In 2006, one of the three times she was named professor of the year, she gave the commencement address to Notre Dame law students, [and said the following]:

“If you can keep in mind that your fundamental purpose in life is not to be a lawyer, but to know, love and serve God,” she said, “you truly will be a different kind of lawyer.”

The Supreme Being aside, Trump’s desire to have a fast conformation, before the Nov. 3 election gives pause to not just the speed, and as The Hill observed, “But with just five weeks until the 2020 election, Trump’s selection of Barrett also carries political risk: Placing a staunch conservative in the seat long occupied by Ginsburg, a liberal icon, may stoke the country’s partisan culture war, heighten Democrats’ concerns over an imminent rollback of hard-won legal advances and alienate some of the country’s more moderate voters.”

After nearly 12 hours of questioning she appeared to be unruffled, and almost girlish, in her answers, but there seemed to be more steel than was apparent as she did her best to avoid giving any direct answers to any questioning from the Democrats, even getting test with Feinstein when questioned by Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware on her mentor, Justice Scalia's dissent on the landmark 2015 law that legalized gay marriage, she shot back, "I hope you're not suggesting I don't have my own mind."

While Democrats knowingly refrained from any mention of her Catholicism, it’s apparent from her past statements, speeches, and membership in certain organizations, that she has viewed, and will view, her judicial work through the prism of an uber conservative Catholicism, something that will be held in opposition to her recent testimonies when she does exactly that.

It was obvious that, despite remarks to the contrary,  Barrett had been coached on what to say, and what not to say, in this customary performance before the Senate; and, equally so were the homey family thumbnail sketches of her children, which while “grimace worthy” was in keeping with her presentation  as mother, and, professional; but, feminine, right down to the stylish magenta frock, from British clothier, The Fold, worn on the first day, and the Jacqueline Kennedy era suit, on another.

Optics count, of course, but this type of staging and scripting was so calculated, that to some observers, it felt not only construed, but constructed. It was obvious that this was, as many in the media have since noted, this was a nod to gain the votes of White suburban working mothers.

Of course, appearances aside, a Supreme Court nomination is about politics, and in a recent piece from the Associated Press, they summed it up nicely when they quoted an academic who said, “It is difficult for the court to avoid politics. Every issue of course has a very political angle and right now the politicization of the courts puts their decisions front and center,” Princeton University historian Julian Zelizer said in an email. “We are at a turning point moment, on the cusp of the entrenchment of a conservative 6-3 majority that will have huge implications on public policy. So at the most basic level, hard to ignore their connections to the events of the day.”

Updated Oct. 17, 2020, 4:20 CDT

August Jobs Report on another track?

Friday’s numbers for the August Jobs Report, from the U.S. Labor Dept. gave some mixed blessings to many economists and observers, but also pointed out the old adage that all that glitters is not gold, and this was especially seen with the bump in federal hiring attributable to the 251,000 census workers who boosted the pyarolls, but also saw women as still staying strong as far as strict levels of hiring; but, in the long run they showed a continued decrease in either permanent layoffs, or temporary furloughs.

Peeking behind the curtain, showed that there was some wizardry at work, but also that there was still a lack of consumer spending, but also a substantial measure of saving by most Americans. If this seems like a conundrum, then that nod to reality is paramount in a country with the highest infection rates of COVID-19, and deaths worldwide.

While the country continuously disapproves of President Trump’s handling of the pandemic, it also needs economic help to stay afloat, now that all pretense at a V-shaped recovery has disappeared, during those early days of March, when America thought that it could make it past what was believed to be a hurdle.

1.4 million non-farm jobs were created, or maybe the better word is held, since much of those were the temporary census jobs, and while this was within the predicted range, it’s better than hoped for, but less than deserved, and while the unemployment rate of 8.4 seems to also be a targeted range, once again, it is a less reliable than the household, or U-6 survey which shows a higher range, despite seeking 14.7 in April and 10.2 in July.

For those looking for light at the end of the tunnel, fresh batteries for the flashlight might be in order, as payroll figures are well below pre-pandemic levels, and the July figure of 1.7 million still shows that there is work to be done.

While Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi might feel that there is still need for a stimulus bill, the fourth totalling $3.2 trillion, previously rejected by the White House, and Republicans, this report might give more support to the latter’s concerns about increasing the national deficit, and might be a no-go to her wishes, and a plank in the non-existent Trump election platform.

The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, commented, in a Washington Post story,“Today’s jobs report was a good one,” and “… We’re not really going to know the pace of the speed of the recovery with any clarity for a couple more months. But certainly the healing in the jobs market continues apace.”

And, in earlier remarks he also expressed hope that the Federal government would step up and provide the necessary relief needed. And in a later interview he soft-pedaled exactly who should give that relief, but most observers felt that he meant from the federal level.

“It could be years before the central bank raises interest rates above a “low” level, Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said on Friday, a sign of the Fed’s steadfast view that the economy, while slowly recovering, will need extraordinary support for an extended amount of time given the pandemic, reported The New York Times.

The Labor Force Participation Rate was 0.3 percent, (to 61.7 percent in August but is 1.7 percentage points below its February level), and as Chicago based Challenger, Gray and Christmas said in a statement, on Thursday, “jobs cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in August totaled 115,762, 116% higher than the August 2019 total of 53,480.”

This total “is 56% lower than the 262,649 job cuts announced in July, It is the highest total in August since 2001, when 118,067 job cuts were announced.”

The largest area was transportation, as airlines began to make these decisions, and on Wednesday, NPR reported, “United Airlines will be putting 16,370 workers on involuntary, indefinite furlough at the start of October unless more aid materializes from the federal government, the company announced Wednesday.”

“Together with some 7,400 voluntary departures, the airline is cutting its workforce by more than 25%. It's hardly alone. American Airlines recently announced 19,000 furloughs and layoffs, while Delta cut its workforce by 20% through buyouts.”

Add this to the list of retail outlets such as the old-guard Lord and Taylor, closing all 38 of its stores, and we have the perfect storm.

It seems highly unlikely that Congress and the White House and the GOP majority in the Senate will move ahead, beyond the temporary $300.00 added by Trump to aid some families, and individuals, is needed, to say the least; and, the reality of rent, and groceries are still a harsh reality.

“The longer people don’t pay their rents, the further down the value of real estate goes, the threat to banks that are holding obligations in that area goes up,” said William E. Spriggs, chief economist to the AFL-CIO and a professor at Howard University. “If this keeps up, we get to January and we start seeing financial stress, we’re in more than deep trouble, reported The Washington Post.

While in the last quarter of 2019, we noted that women were the ones rewarded on the hiring end, the picture has begun to change, and “Women now make up about 49.8 percent of non-farm jobs, down from 50.04 percent in January. They also are experiencing higher rates of unemployment, 8.4 percent, compared with men, at 8 percent,” they added.

“Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 174,000 in August, with about three-fourths of the gain occurring in food services and drinking places (+134,000). Despite job gains totaling 3.6 million over the last 4 months, employment in food services and drinking places is down by 2.5 million since February,” the report noted, and no doubt, to many, much of the downward trend was with women workers.

Worth noting in these racially perilous times is the Black unemployment rate of 13 percent, a slight decrease by one point from July, but is still significantly greater than the white unemployment figure of 7.3 percent, representing continued racial inequality.

In the nearly six months after the peak of the pandemic, American struggles to have a rebound with this economy but is hampered, and will be for some time, with the economic consequences. That has been devastated by COVID-19, and “the nearly 1 million people who keep applying for unemployment each week point to a sluggish pace of improvement,” reported Associated Press.

With increasing furloughs and layoffs, from retail and also automotive, with Ford trying to shrink its white-collar by 1,400 it's easy to see that many of these vacancies are becoming permanent.

Post convention Trump in full force to stay in office

The klieg lights have been extinguished, the props have been put away, and the cast is relegated to the film vaults, and while many felt that the show was reality television at its best, replete with all the trappings of Hollywood, but the show was in fact the 2020 Republican National Convention, where President Trump accepted the nomination for the 2020 presidential race, at the White House, in a precedent shattering nearly virtual event.

The three-day event also confirmed what many have known for some time: that Donald Trump now owns the Republican Party, lock, stock and barrel, which essentially  began on the day that he was inaugurated, when he registered with the Federal Election Commission for a second term.

Noteworthy was the absence of old-guard conservatives such as George W. Bush, Mitt Romeny and the like, and most glaringly the absence of a party platform of issues, with simply one goal: re elect Donald J. Trump.

If that seems shortsighted then the continuance of what has been one of the most controversial presidents has thrown the United States into a swirling mass of controversy from putting immigrant children in cages to fights at the southern border to tariffs with China (that elevated consumer good prices in America) to insults to Canadian leaders, and officials, and a redrafting of a George H.W. Bush era NAFTA, that gained the United States little more than a few gallons of milk, claimed one wag, to the cancellation of  the Paris (Climate) Agreement, and a later claim for victory, that some say was pyrrhic

Much of this has played into the hands of the Democrats who are not only anxious to defeat Trump, but to restore a sense of normalcy to domestic and global policies, but face a well-financed opponent, plus the spectre of the electoral college that could reign once again, and defeat their candidate, former Vice-President Joe Biden, and render the entire election meaningless.

Claiming that the Republicans dwell in an alternate reality, might capture search engine hits, but the reality is anything but alternate as the country reels from not merely the headline grabbing tweets that Trump has issued, but also the more than 3,000 less-factual statements that some have said, feed the wishes off of his supporters; and White House advisers, who see his false claims as red meat to feed the base.

Against the COVID-19 pandemic and a violent summer of racial unrest from brutal police shootings of unarmed black men and women, replete with scenes of fires, gulag style detentions, and white vigilante shooters, who invoke the president’s name, and whom, he subsequently praises in a waterfall of tweets.

Law and order he proclaims, yet the very idea, redolent of Nixonian politics, gives rise to more fear mongering, and of course, the subtext of keeping blacks in their place. 

This is not an entirely new strategy and ties to the Southern Strategy of mid-century American politics, begins to give an edgy skew to what will no doubt continue to be an ugly stream of violence throughout the fall, in the run-up to the election.

In a news report from The Hill, “President Trump on Monday defended the actions of Kyle Rittenhouse, a teenager accused of killing two protesters in Kenosha, Wis.

"We’re looking at all of it. That was an interesting situation. You saw the same tape as I saw," the president told reporters during a news conference at the White House.

Trump described Rittenhouse as acting in self-defense, saying he was "very violently attacked" by demonstrators.”

This self styled warrior has now been eulogized as a hero while America grapples with the age-old problem or race.

If this all seems more militaristic that seems to be the intention, right down to First Lady Melania Trump’s olive green belted suit, worn during her convention speech, which emulated battle fatigues.

Added to the long-held view that Trump is a racist which had its earliest viewing in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017 when the town was overtaken by members of the Ku Klux Klan, the president said: "We condemn in the strongest possible terms this egregious display of hatred, bigotry and violence on many sides, on many sides," Trump said, with many objecting to the “many sides” aspect, but also that there were good people on both sides.

"You had some very bad people in that group, but you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides," Trump said, angering even more, on both sides of the political aisle.

The die was cast and as NPR reported in 2018: “Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado was among those who argued that Trump needed to be more clear about who he was condemning.

"This is not a time for vagaries. This isn't a time for innuendo or to allow room to be read between the lines. This is a time to lay blame ... on white supremacists, on white nationalism and on hatred," Gardner said on CNN the day after Trump's initial statement.

Adding to the Convention were those black speakers who supported him, such as Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, and Herschel Walker, giving even more of a surreal air to the affair when he said, among other statements praising Trump, “He shows how much he cares about social justice and the Black community through his actions, and his actions speak louder than stigma or slogans on a jersey,” Walker said. “He keeps right on fighting to improve the lives of Black Americans and all Americans.”

It was strongly hoped that the economy --- mostly positive, despite low wages -  would keep the president in office, for a second term. Now that has abated with his weak handling of the coronavirus, COVID-19, and in even more damaging tones, he advocated drinking bleach as a cure for the virus, startling many, and shocking others.

With the U.S. leading the world in infections, and deaths, when asked about it, in an interview, Trump commented simply, “It is the way it is.” 

That way of dismissing the dangerous pandemic has given way to 71 percent of American, reported The Hill, having serious concerns about his handling of the pandemic, with only a 42 percent approval.

This is a further endangering his reelection office, and especially may alienate white suburban voters, particularly women, whose dual roles of caregivers and employees are burdening even the strongest of them.

Another poll has 66 percent of registered voters disappointed with Trump’s handling of the epidemic, while 58 percent are strongly disappointed.

Then again, there are those who according to a recent article from The New York Times, has the “president’s back” and “who believe he is fighting in America’s best interests and has achieved many of his goals - which are their goals too.”

Some of those interviewed, stated categorically that the coronavirus was “ a lot less severe,” than initially felt with the worst cases confined to older people; a statement rendered false when looking at the statistics.

While often viewed, with some accuracy, as having less than a college education, mostly white and mostly, if not semi rural, there are exceptions, these people believe that Trump is helping American achieve their best interests.

Then there are the fringe groups, of Trump supporters, like QAnon, a group of conspiracists that believe the there is a “deep state” with ties to satanism and child sex trafficking, according to the Associated Press, and which we glimpsed during the 2016 election.

In a no-holds barred charge, and the near fatal attack on a pizza parlor in Washington DC’s Dupont Circle, neighborhood, and that believers associated with Hillary Clinton.

It’s not difficult to see that the 2020 campaign is just as close in pattern, and form, to the 2016 Trump campaign with fear mongering at the forefront, and the recent racial troubles in Kenosha, Wis. from the shooting of Jacob Blake, have added to the president's agenda of fear: this is what your city will look like if you vote for Biden.

Tuesday’s appearance in Kenosha may provide the necessary optics for Trump, as a law and order president, but the state of Wisconsin is vital to his winning, and also for Democratic candidate Biden who after a narrow win, for Trump, needs a solid win.

As Nancy Pelosi and former Attorney General Eric Holder, said, “No pressure, it's all riding on Wisconsin.”

“Democrats, as well as President Donald Trump, have made no secret how essential winning Wisconsin is to the race this year. Wisconsin did not get the national attention it hoped for when the Democratic convention originally planned for Milwaukee moved online. But Trump and his surrogates have flooded the state this week, drawing a sharp contrast with Democratic nominee Joe Biden, who decided against traveling to the state to accept the nomination due to concerns over COVID-19,” reported the AP.

Holder, with some humor added, “The road to the presidency runs through Wisconsin,” and, “The fate of the United States, the fate of the western world, is on your shoulders. Not too much pressure.”

It may not be politics as usual for some, but then again, as the old adage states, “all politics is local,” and for Trump, all bets are on to stay in the Oval office.