With filibuster intact, can Dems go rogue with COVID bill?

It takes two to tango, says the old expression, and within the opening days of the US Senate, with the Democrats in charge, albeit by a slim majority, there were two senators, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, that tipped the scales to a power sharing agreement accepted by the new Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Sen. McConnell

 While success has many fathers, and failure is an orphan, can yet again, a successful bipartisan effort, be had? And, was there no middle ground for the Senate to fill the seats of the various committees, with the inauguration of President Joe Biden without one? 

It seemed not, and with the Republican dominated Senate as the historical party of “no”, endorse any Democratic legislation, ever?

That logjam, noted The Hill, that McConnell, as well as Chuck Schumer, the new majority leader, wanted to end, and with Manchin and Sinema on the dance card, the die was now set, despite not getting written assurances that Schumer would not change the rules of the filibuster, in his tenure, and an “okay” with reconciliation, (a measure designed for a straight up and down vote), and with VIce President Harris, breaking any ties, there is now agreed governance for lawmakers in the new administration.

There is still the role of the filibuster, and while many have seen it as a time honored tool, others have maligned it, especially as a tool for segregationists, and some Dems were for it, before they were against it, for example, former President Obama, when he was a senator.

As The Wall Street Journal noted last September, “many senators of both parties defended the filibuster as a tool to promote comprose and counter the other party, and viewed ending it as shortsighted because a party newly in power might quickly undo the other’s laws and pass its own.”

Biden has also said that he would prefer its preservation, unless facing GOP opposition that would thwart him in his efforts towards new legislation.

Taking a look back at its origins sheds some light for modern readers: “Using the filibuster to delay or block legislative action has a long history. The term filibuster—from a Dutch word meaning "pirate"—became popular in the 1850s, when it was applied to efforts to hold the Senate floor in order to prevent a vote on a bill,” notes the US Senate website.

“In the early years of Congress, representatives as well as senators could filibuster. As the House of Representatives grew in number, however, revisions to the House rules limited debate. In the smaller Senate, unlimited debate continued on the grounds that any senator should have the right to speak as long as necessary on any issue.”

For those of a certain generation, and perhaps beyond, there was Huey Long of Louisiana in the 1930s infamous for his hours long recitation of Shakespeare, and recipes for southern delicacies; but, on the less humorous side, there is “The record for the longest individual speech [which] goes to South Carolina's J. Strom Thurmond who filibustered for 24 hours and 18 minutes against the Civil Rights Act of 1957.”

History might be written by the victors, but it is also subject to scrutiny, and revision.

Now enter Sara Binder, historian, and academic, whose closer read of the original documents show that “the history of extended debate in the Senate belies the received wisdom that the filibuster was an original, constitutional feature of the Senate. The filibuster is more accurately viewed as the unanticipated consequence of an early change to Senate rules.”

Out of a lengthy and persuasive discussion, Binder, “In testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Rules and Administration, she counters a number of conventionally held notions about the origins and history of the Senate filibuster, and worth noting for the Biden administration, is this: “There are conditions that can lead a bipartisan supermajority to agree to change Senate rules. The minority has often held the upper hand in these contests, however, given the high barrier to reform imposed by inherited Senate rules.”

Most recently, McConnell refused to end the filibuster for President Trump, and along with Sen. Orrin Hatch defended its nearly sacrosanct role in senate negotiations, and  “The GOP knows what it's like to be powerless, and it has used the filibuster to great effect in recent years while in the minority. This is a tool whose value is known to many Senate Republicans because they have relied on it<’ noted The Washington Post, in 2017.

All  of which brings us to the present day where Biden facing the ongoing COVID pandemic and growing pressure to stem the tide of the pandemic, especially on the economic lives of millions of Americans faces a stalwart GOP determined not to pass his $1.9 billion coronavirus relief

Sen. Dick Durbin  of Illinois, the new majority whip, told NBC's "Meet the Press" that "The American people want us to take action, action on this pandemic, action on this economy and on a host of other issues, and if this filibuster has become so common in the Senate that we can't act, that we just sit there helpless, shame on us. Of course we should consider a change in the rule under those circumstances.”

With some justification the GOP has balked at the price tag, but, with increasing new strains from overseas, can America afford to not do everything that it can. Certainly, without federal help as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has noted before, economic relief cannot be had.

Sen. Durbin

Republican lawmakers want to limit relief to vaccines, already in short supply due to Trump officials recalcitrance, and many like Maine senator Susan Collins are looking only at the vaccine, and distribution, without taking stock of the vast needs for the nation's public schools, and state and local aid.

She noted in a recent call that, “it seems premature to be considering a package of this size and scope.”

Looking at the methodology is also Collins' way of distancing herself, and others of her camp, from an outright rejection, on cost alone. But, without the money, direct payments withstanding, how can the US recover?

The new president has said, “Time is of the essence, and I must tell you I’m reluctant to cherry pick and take out one or two items.” 

While no deadline has been set by the White House, it is obvious that time is of the essence, and going it alone is an option, without GOP support, but some supporters, as well as critics, note that would burn through a lot of his political capital, and upset McConnell, but as most Washington insiders know the minority leader is skillful at playing on the contours of an issue, and in the end not cooperating at all.

The Day of Infamy: January 6, 2021

 

One week ago today, on a chilly Wednesday, America’s Capitol was overrun by insurrectionists in a violent mob, urged on by President Trump in a speech riddled with falsehoods, to “take back” the government.

Angered that he lost the 2020 presidential election and after a series of calculated disinformation, Trump’s rallying call contained only a perfunctory call for peace. And,

emboldened by his words, the mob proceeded to smash windows and doors in the Capitol, in an attempt to prevent the formal ,and mostly ceremonial, counting of the electoral votes, presided by Vice President Mike Pence in a joint session of Congress. 

Trump lost the electoral vote in a 306-232 final count, in short a free and fair election in accordance with U.S. election laws.

Shortly after the first objection was raised and debate was to begin, the Senate retired to their chamber, from the House, and then the mob reached the very doors of the chamber as the Secret Service grabbed the vice president and then the Speaker of the House Chuck Schumer, followed in turn by Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell,and Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

In a well publicized, and well planned effort, hundreds of thousands of people poured into the Congress, replete with guns, pipe bombs, Molotov cocktails; and, with rumors of the possible use of tear gas, lawmakers hid under their desks, with gas masks on, and some remanded to the House gallery, lying on the floor as the insurrectionists surged into the chamber, some with plastic zip ties, presumably as handcuffs for “errant” lawmakers, chiefly Pence and the long hated Pelosi.

One elderly woman, according to USA Today, yelled at Capitol Police officers, “Tell Pelosi we’re coming for her.

The scene was shocking and unforgettable, the most frightening act towards American democracy since the Whiskey Rebellion of 1794 that threatened the early days of the republic; and, the burning of the building by the British in the War of 1812, but no one had thought that this horror was possible, as image after image gave the impression of the much maligned “banana republics” of Hollywood, or the march toward the Duma, in the Tauride Palace in St. Petersburg, during the last days of the Russian Imperial government, and the beginning of The Russian Revolution.

Neither were expected in the United States, an 18th century experiment that became the world’s leading democracy, especially in its entrance into World War I, and its role in ending World War II.

To see the unfolding events and later images made many Americans awestruck and saddened, ourselves included, while still others were in tears.

The Capitol Police with a vast underestimation of the rally turned down the use of The National Guard, and its chief, Steven Sund, even rejected offers of help by the FBI as “extremists were climbing Capitol Hill” as the vandals roamed halls, stealing official documents and posed for pictures with their feet on the desks of the Speaker in her office, and on the dais.

Lying at the core of the mob was the insidious odor of racism, as gangs of white supremaicsts, spearheading the call to Washington: The Proud Boys, The Bugallo Boys, The 3 Percent and others whose extremist views have been  allowed to foment over decades in America, and whose rise and now has manifested itself in what is truly our 21st century day of infamy.

The racist core, and the desire for a new civil war seems to replace the one that ended in the 19th century, and has been given new impetus by the inflammatory rhetoric of Trump, who with this scorched earth movements, has given these groups what they want, a hero, a leader, and an emergence from the shadows.

In an appearance on Tuesday in Texas, the president refused to take the blame for his incendiary actions saying according to The New York TImes, ““People thought what I said was totally appropriate,” Mr. Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews, en route to Alamo, Texas, where he was set to visit the border wall. Instead, Mr. Trump claimed that racial justice protests over the summer were “the real problem.”

“If you look at what other people have said, politicians at a high level about the riots during the summer, the horrible riots in Portland and Seattle and various other places, that was a real problem,” he said.

There are more revelations: members of law enforcement and even local government leaders joining in the fracas, and with some “mom and pop” folks saying that Jan. 6th was the best day of their lives.

What we face as a nation today is a moral reckoning, and the realization that we are no longer, the City on the Hill, or the New Jerusalem; and, will be a problem for years to come as not simply the 70 million voters who voted for Trump four years ago, but the these groups that have energized the violence and the rhetoric that has turned whatever accomplishments for racial and gender equality, the U.S. has created, on its head.

Many in the media as well as on the streets and the shops have been angered that the majority white crowd that caused the horror were simply allowed to melt away, while this summer, Blacks peacefully demonstrating caused such alarm that virtual armies were sent out, not to mention the clearing out of a  multiracial crowd of protestors in Washington’s Lafayette Square, was dispersed with tear gas and rubber bullets, so that the president could hold a photo op in front of St. John’s Episcopal Church, holding a Bible.

When some Black hooligans hijacked peaceful demonstrations ro racial justice, in Chicago, they were derided again, and again, by whites, but these white insurrections have not been condemned at all by most of white Chicagoans.

The task before us, as a nation, is how do we go forth?

Calls for charges of sedition may be one of many steps to hold the perpetrators accountable. 

While lawyers and academics argue the fine points Bill Kennedy writing for The Baltimore Sun, noted the following in his research: “Overt conduct, such as speech and organisation that tends toward rebellion against the established order. Sedition often includes subversion of a constitution and incitement of discontent toward, or rebellion against established authority. It may include any commotion, though not aimed at direct and open violence against the laws.”

The trajectory of lies, misinformation and disinformation and the subversion of human dignity also, has sadly led to this debacle, and, Kennedy also noted that “The members of Congress who also fed their constituents a litany of lies about the legality of the election and stoked the fires of discontent, many to try to preserve their standing with that portion of the electorate and stay in office, share in the wrongdoing and should also be held accountable.”

Ultimately President Trump, who was impeached for the second time Wednesday, has created the establishment of a cult which has led to this violent episode that perpetuates a skewed version of reality, both of law and content.

It is worth noting that Andrew Sullivan writing in NYMag.com, two years ago, derided Trump and “his ludicrous reality show” which has led his followers to state “the truth is whatever he says it is.”

December 2020 Jobs Report sinks with COVID

 

Hopes sank for a V shaped recovery when the U.S. Labor Dept. released its December Jobs report for 2020 with a drastic drop in non farm job creation of only 140,000, and a still weak labor force participation rate of 61.5 percent that combined with the November report showed that the COVID pandemic has wreaked, and will continue to wreak havoc on the American economy, as it has in most of the developed world, and beyond.

The $900 billion relief package that Congress passed in December arrived too late to have a significant impact on an already burdensome economy, but it is expected that the incoming Biden administration will continue more stimulus payments, both to individuals and also to state and local economies, both who face dire consequences without help.

Election week markets, recalled Jill Schlesinger, CBS News business analyst, in an earlier column, noted the market's reaction, with an S&P soaring 7.3 percent, “the best presidential election week since 1932.”

Now with a Democratic majority in the Senate, after the Georgia runoff elections, corporate America may not be as sanguine as they were with a Republican controlled Senate, and many are hazarding a guess as to any tax increases.

As we recalled earlier King Covid reigns, and with recent surges in the pandemic and business restructuring and local and state governments adding more restrictions Wall Street as well as Main Street will continue to suffer.

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell noted just after the election, “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus,” and continued relief set against the promise of the two major vaccines can offer hope to millions of workers.

Those especially hard hit are those in the service sector, and especially those that depend on in person interaction such as leisure and travel with $500,00 cuts in December, and restaurants which are acutely vulnerable, faced 372,000 in job losses, and hotels with 24,000.

Adding to the losses were private schools and colleges with 60,000 job losses creating economic havoc in smaller towns where they are often the main employer.

There were some gains, perhaps not strong enough to sustain, but manufacturing rose by 38,000 jobs, construction by 51,000 and retail in a surprising spin 120,000 jobs added by a loosening of restrictions and warmer weather that extended into Fall.

That hoped for V recovery has now clearly become a K shaped with the upper branch focused on the managerial and professional class, mostly white, and the bottom branch with lower waged service workers, mostly Black and Brown people, whose future seems bleak, especially those who are restaurant workers, and whose brief surge during the summer, has hit a low with the advent of cold weather and a dearth of outdoor dining.

If this continues, many households will not only face an uncertain future, but also can contribute to a slack in the nation’s GDP. And, as Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said to The New York Times, “Most notably, this is still very much a low wage recession, and the losses where we first saw them when the pandemic hit.”

It is worth noting that Labor does not count those who are not looking for work (who may feel there are not jobs available), or are caring for children, or elderly relatives, including those with disabilities.

Contributing to long term joblessness are those the Times noted who have criminal background records, and the disabled, “that make it hard to find jobs even in the best of times.”

Biden said, according to The Wall Street Journal, ““The bottom line is the jobs report shows we need to provide more immediate relief for working families and businesses—now,”. . .. “He also said he would seek to increase the federal minimum wage to at least $15 an hour, calling on Congress to pass the measure.”

Equally problematic as we noted last month are women who are now forced to care for children, and other dependents, have left the workforce, especially those who worked in service areas; aided and with partners or spouses who are higher wage earners.

The subsequent void has cut back prime age working women to 75 percent of the workforce in December from 77.1 in February of 2020, before the pandemic.

The racial breakdown has shown that Blacks have made a moderate stability of 9.9 percent employment rate against the general rate of 6.7, against 10.3 percent before; but, Hispanics have increased to 9.3 percent, from 8.4 in November, as active participants in lower wage and service sectors.

What concerns most economists, labor leaders and lawmakers is that the country has lost half a million jobs in 2020, the most significant decline “on a percentage basis since the aftermath of World War II.”

Of equal concern are state and local governments who as we have seen did not gain monies from the most recent aid bill, but have faced budget cuts and layoffs, since they are mandated to have a balanced budget, and who employ 13 percent of employers in the United States.

There have been 1.4 million of those jobs lost since last February, the pre pandemic marker that is the baseline for comparison, with 51,000 alone last month.

Some believe like Swonk that this is a low wage recession, driven by the pandemic and that shoring up the service sector with financial relief, and the vaccine, there might be a recovery, and Bloomberg reported that “Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc. “It does show that if we can get control of the pandemic, then we can restore economic activity and labor market conditions over the course of this year. It’s a pandemic-driven number, a pandemic-driven composition.”

Wage growth, as can be imagined, has declined, and they added,“For the full year, payrolls declined by 9.37 million, the most in records back to 1939 and exceeding the combined slump in 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession and its aftermath.”

What lies aheads depends on so many factors, as we have seen, and while remaining hopeful, this optimism is tempered by caution, and especially with the vaccine rollout, and the policies of the incoming Biden administration, aided by its experienced cabinet, and its now Democratic majority in Congress.

COVID-19 was the number one story for 2020

Photo by Long Truong on Unsplash

Without a doubt the number one news story across the planet was the COVID-19 pandemic that attacked all countries and all social classes, upending the world’s economy and shuttering businesses and sending people teetering on the edge of financial disaster and caused 1.81 million deaths.

As 2020 draws to a close we can see close up the effects on capitalism and its seemingly sound foundation, but in reality showed the fragility of a system that many had taken for granted, with some sense of a safety net, to realize that for many it was an illusion, and showed the weakness for those who were seemingly adherents, especially those who were Black and Brown often, tethered to low wage service jobs, and who could often find no port for safety,, and risked exposure and death.

In America, the piecemeal health system, locally governed, proved inadequate as it attempted to grapple with the fragility, and inadequacy of systems that were not prepared to stem the tide of a new coronavirus, coupled with a national leader who feared that admitting reality would panic his people; and, ironically affecting those who were already panicking as death’s cold hand took their loved ones lives, leaving the dead to bury the dead.

Class systems in this country remained stalwart, despite objections as when reminded that not all people could work from home told us, “We’ll stay home so that they can go to work.”

This is an opportune time to makes us pause to examine these cracks and fissures, both economic, and social that can be healed, and made whole, not simply with the the vaccine, but also the will to change the systems, and roles, that have not worked, and the bravery to discern what can remain, and what can be discarded.

“We have a chance to do something extraordinary. As we head out of this pandemic we can change the world. Create a world of love. A world where we are kind to each other. A world where we are kind no matter what class, race, sexual orientation, what religion or lack of or what job we have. A world we don't judge those at the food bank because that may be us if things were just slightly different. Let love and kindness be our roadmap,” noted Johnny Corn.

We, as well as world leaders, must realize the infinite hazards of a world where people, even in America, are turning to food banks to feed their families;, and it is worth noting that in  many instances these are families, who were previously donors, not clients.

Sadly, as the vaccines have been approved in the United States as well as the United Kingdom there are others in a rush to save themselves are buying in excess amounts, but are also jeopardizing third world countries.

Fear of course is potent, but also as Marie Curie noted: “Nothing in life is to be feared; it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.” 

With that goal in mind, the need to understand the basics of the virus has been complicated by conspiracy theories, and a lack of basic science knowledge, indeed, what a virus is, to avoid hearing statements, such as ‘If you take Vitamin C you won’t get it” or “my kids eat well, really well, so I am not afraid for them.”

Acceptance is also complicated by a burgeoning anti-science stance that is tied to anti-vaccine behavior that in the past has increased measles among children, but now threatens to slow the progress towards policing the virus, if not completely eradicating it.

Preparing the way is also on the horizon, as scientists are banding together to harness the next virus, a string of which has plagued humanity since the Bubonic Plague, and now in the great beyond.

The old lyrics by Simon and Garfunkel, from “The Sound of Silence” have haunted us recently and are worth repeating:

“Hello darkness, my old friend

I've come to talk with you again

Because a vision softly creeping

Left its seeds while I was sleeping

And the vision that was planted in my brain

Still remains

Within the sound of silence.”

Let it not be. There is the darkness before the light, said a wise man.

November Jobs Report is a stinker

In a growing sign that the US economy has been shattered by the COVID pandemic the Labor Department on Friday reported that only 245,000 non-farm jobs have been added to the American market, and conjoined by a 6.7 percent unemployment rate, they both contribute to the economic free-fall that has been predicted by some economists.

As we have noted previously the effect on American individuals and families has been devastating with evictions, long lines at food banks and homelessness, and with unemployment benefit extensions expiring on the day after Christmas, the raging dilemma for most people is panic.

The Hill noted that the down-slide in the nation is “fading at a much steeper rate than had been expected. Economists projected the U.S. to add roughly 400,000 jobs last month.”

The corresponding decrease in labor force participation has contributed to the decrease in the unemployment rate, but as has been established, that is only part of the picture, since the figure does not capture how many people have given up looking for work; and, those who want full time work, but are stuck in part time work.

“The CARES Act was a critical lifeline for the economy through the pandemic’s first phase, but rear-view economics cannot inform the current state of the recovery," wrote Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a Friday analysis,” also from The Hill.

“In November, the number of workers jobless for at least 27 weeks — economists’ barometer for “long-term” unemployment — grew by 385,000 to 3.9 million,” according to CNBC.

The free-fall can be seen, even with revisions, from 672 jobs  in September and 638 in October for the number of jobs added. And,  despite a gain of 11.6 million, there remains 21 million jobs lost to the effects of the pandemic.

In fact, the labor force participation rate has decreased from 61.7 to 61.5; many of which have hit workers of prime age, those between 25 years to 54 years old, which has decreased from baseline measures of 81.2 in October.

Taking a closer look it’s easy to see that King Covid, as some have dubbed it, has devastated even the effects of a lukewarm recovery, and this is clearly seen with the restaurant and beverage industry where after the earlier shutdowns in the Spring, led to a hiring bump with the warm weather, only to see an end to indoor dining, as colder weather approached, plus the loss of revenue from frequent carryout and delivery, that in many cases has not been enough to pay the rent and salaries of most restaurants.

While the leisure and hospitality field, overall, gained 31,000 jobs; it has yet to recover the 3.1 million jobs lost since February, and “retailers lost 35,000 jobs in November when stores typically load up on seasonal hires for the holiday shopping rush.”

Part of that loss of holiday hires has been due to fears of Covid, and especially from older Americans who have often been a large pool to draw from, for those jobs,and who are among the more vulnerable groups that fear exposure.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi seemed optimistic on Friday that the House and Senate could soon reach a bipartisan agreement on an ever elusive pandemic stimulus deal after she and Senator Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, agreed to try to find a common ground that could be worked into a large year end spending package.

“That would be our hope because that is the vehicle leaving the station,” Ms. Pelosi, Democrat of California, said at a news conference in the Capitol Friday morning, a day after her conversation with Mr. McConnell, Republican of Kentucky. The phone call marked their first conversation since the election,” also reported by The Hill.

The Dems have come down on their original price of $2.2 trillion dollars, and it also contains, at least initially, 300 billion to smaller businesses, $160 billion to state and local governments and the much anticipated, and needed extension of unemployment benefits, due to expire at the end of this year.

Also up for the challenge are the end of eviction moratorium, which community leaders have noted, puts many families at the risk of being on the streets,

November’s report also shows what was once a plus, now a minus: the decrease in women’s employment, which was a high less than three months ago, and even a surge this time last year, but now with more and more women, mostly wage earners, being out of work, due to Covid layoffs they have returned home. And, those who were white collar professionals found that with schools closed, made the decision to, become stay at home mothers, and help supervise remote learning for their children.

For women of color, often head of households the fall has been dramatic in areas that they tend to dominate and in education, in large cities 21,000 jobs have been lost overall, and for those concentrated in cities with large Black and Brown populations such as Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, the exponential effect on working families is significant.

“This dynamic is perhaps most pronounced among Black workers — the only racial group with an unemployment rate above 10% even after months of economic improvement.

“Black unemployment is STILL nearly twice the white rate,” Gbenga Ajilore, senior economist at the Center for American Progress, said Friday in a tweet,” CNBC added.

For perspective they said: “Black or African-American workers had a jobless rate of 10.3% in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, White workers had a 5.9% rate. Asian workers had a 6.7% jobless rate while Hispanic or Latino workers had an 8.4% rate.”

Airlines who suffered the early effects of the pandemic are now facing some hard choices and Southwest Airlines announced on Friday that unless the union would agree to concessions, 7,000 workers would lose their jobs, nearly 10 percent of the workforce.

Most bachelor's degrees in America are awarded to women, and the resulting brain drain from the corporate office of those who decided to stay at home has made a slight bump in temporary workers, but at a higher hourly wage, this may not be a mainstay.

Some light was seen with an increase of 46,000 for health care workers, and 27,000 customer service jobs, with some expected due to online shoppers, of 145,000 transportation and warehouse jobs, but with the exception of the latter most are tenuous at best, without Congressional help.

“This is an ugly report,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton, whose ranking was perhaps the most honest of those economists interviewed in the national media.

Updated Dec. 6, 2020

Foreign policy the Biden way

Of all of the hard work facing the Biden Admiistation, none is as formidable as, the pandemic aside, as the arena of foreign relations whose path was wrecked by President Trump’s anti globalist and scattershot approach that hampered the work of career diplomats and their staffs, and the notable exit from the Paris Climate Accord, and the fragmentation of the Iran Nuclear Disarmament agreement that, while imperfect, held that country to a standard of near compliance; an achievement in and of itself.

Relations between old allies such as England and Germany, and even older with France, has been riddled with misunderstanding and rife with damaging rhetoric that has caused their leaders to question the reliability of the United States, still the wer, just short of China.

The near euphoria that was felt across the ocean was summed up neatly in a tweet to Biden on his election victory, by President Macron of France, “Welcome back!” 

Without being stated this feeling was the same for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, of the United Kingdom, and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, despite the fact that Johnson had expressed admiration for Trump; and with a well established penchant for hyperbolic praise, and estimation, this may prove just as true with his evaluation of the newly elected American president.

To establish what is even normal, tensions aside, with the rest of the world, will require the talents of an experienced mind, as well as a detailed resume, and someone with the skill of a rear admiral, and energy galore, as Biden’s secretary of state; and, the name of Susan Rice as the presumptive nominee would be an apt choice, but in the end Biden chose a former staffer and close associate, Antony Blinken, who began his tenure in higher office in the Clinton administration, and who later from 2009 to 2013 became Deputy Assistant to the President, and also his National Security Adviser when Biden was vice-president.

Antony Blinken

Putting that aside, for a moment, and taking a wider look at the last four years of withdrawal, and even name calling, the debacle, and this is not too strong of a word of American foreign policy is important to neglect, and especially as joint cooperation is needed to fight the pandemic.

Decades of experience

As president, Joe Biden brings not only nearly 50 years of experience as a lawmaker, but also two terms on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and as vice president under Barack Obama, represented him  in a number of key areas, one with the admittance of China to the World Trade Organization, and also dealing with the Balkan conflicts.

As France 24 noted, “Biden has said his foreign agenda would "place the United States back at the head of the table, in a position to work with its allies and partners to mobilise collective action on global threats". The operative word there may be "table"—Biden recognises there should be one. After four years of "America First", with the erratic Trump toppling proverbial roundtables with an iconoclastic flourish, Biden will be conspicuous about putting the pieces back together.”

While  a iot has been debated, over the past few decades, about the role of America in foreign relations, either as policeman, or partner, the path of history has shown the military might and the intervention, whether it was as the new colossus, as Winston Churchill put it, entering the Great War, or later in World War II, the hand of the president backed by creativity, with the Lend Lease of fighter airplanes to England, his power has solved, and in less than glorious ways, created clamor, as what was done with Vietnam.

Over the past decades, we have also seen that the increased partisanship has not only intensified, but also has diverged in how Americans view foreign relations, and policy, itself, with allegiances, and while not paramount to a presidential election it has shown, in this year’s election some startling differences.

Partisanship divide affects how Americans view foreign policy

Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, noted in a recent op ed piece, for the Chicago Tribune, that Democrats favor international approaches that include the US participating in international organizations (63%) the provision of humanitarian aid (59%) and favor the increased use of the United Nations (68%) and the World Trade Organization (53%).

By contrast, Republicans, nearly half, believed that the United states is “rich and powerful enough to go it alone, (48%), the imposition of sanctions on other countries (43%) and that the UN, World Health Organization, and WTO should be “less involved” 34%, 39% and 30%, respectively.

Bridging this divide will require some high wire maneuvers for the new administration and especially for Rice should she be confirmed as secretary of state.

Also taking prime place will be the  Biden team’s definitive focus: should it, or will it be part of the centrist approach taken by the prior Obama administration? If so, one thing remains the same: an ongoing globalist focus that capitalizes on the relationships that Biden has built over the past decades.

There is also what Matthew Vallieres, of the University of Toronto, sees as necessary, emotions, or rather the inclusion, rather than the exclusion of them, and he says, “No foreign policy maker should dismiss emotions, and no policy maker is ever above emotion.”

Despite a past reputation of being pragmatic, Biden has, has become less hawkish, over the years, and as “Brett McGurk, a former senior State Department official for the campaign against the Islamic State, said Mr. Biden had been an effective diplomat by practicing “strategic empathy,” to The New York TImes.

A different approach?

“It is an approach grounded in a belief that understanding another leader — “what they want and what they need,” in the words of James Rubin, a former Biden aide who later served as the State Department spokesman — is as important as understanding his or her nation,” they added.

He is not without his critics, and Sen. Bernie Sanders has previously criticized him for not being progressive enough, and some have insisted that, “his emphasis on the personal is not effective at all, that it covers for flawed judgment and a lack of principle. “It’s little wonder that he claims world leaders have told him they support his election — they want to get back to eating America’s lunch again,” said Tim Murtaugh, a Trump campaign spokesman. He pointed out that Mr. Biden had voted to authorize the Iraq war and said he favored “appeasing” Cuba.”

Some have also said that he carried the water for Obama and company, and we have this, also from the Times: “As a senator, he produced no landmark foreign-policy legislation or defining doctrines. As vice president, he was largely a facilitator and adviser to Mr. Obama, often overshadowed by the secretaries of state, Hillary Clinton and then John Kerry.”

This of course belies the fact that in his role as vice president, he was not to create policy, but to carry it out; and, it seems that this in no sense will change with Kamala Harris, but should be amplified by future collaboration with Blinken.

China, China, China

The greatest challenge, among many will be dealing with China, not only for its attempts to become a dominant economic power, but also a militant one, in the example of the independence of Hong Kong, and dealing with the slow erosion of its post colonial autonomy, but also with its “legalization” of taking American intellectual property, as a condition of doing business with them.

While State Department officials are not predicting a future without illusion, the intensity of future relations are certainly to be felt, with a redevelopment not only of policy, but approach and seeking cooperation and not confrontation.

That arena also contains mutually conflicting areas such as economic security, human rights, tariffs on Chinese imports along with the other elements of the Belt and Road Initiative, (connecting and expanding an infrastructure with aspirations to recreate, and connect a new Silk Road)t will require skill and also cooperation with Western Europe whose countries have also been picked off by China, in attempts to do business.

President Xi

Biden has said that “the most effective way to meet that challenge is to build a united front of friends . . to confront China’s abusive behavior,” and ““even as we seek to cooperate with Beijing on issues where our interests converge, such as climate change, nonproliferation, and global health security.”

“Such a “united front” is what Beijing fears most, said Willy Lam, professor of history and China studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, according to the Los Angeles TImes.

“America’s return to multilateralism is welcome as a stabilizing force and important player in global issues such as climate change, said Wang Yong, professor of international studies at Peking University.”

“But if some people in the U.S. use ideological standards to politicize these supposedly international organizations and make alliances against China because China’s ideology is different, then this is a big mistake,” he said. “This is what some people are worried about, “they added.

Getting things done

On the other hand, as The Nation wrote last April, “In what is perhaps the best-case scenario, two increasingly nationalistic superpowers with immense militaries and overextended economies might be content to maintain their own spheres of influence. But China wants to expand its sphere, and the United States is reluctant to give up either its Pacific presence or its global ambitions.”

The changes, or rather the Trumpian aggression has melted away, yet what remains is a playbook, or what some are calling a reset, for China, that might involve a smaller case scenario that involves cooperation.

Looking at this level of engagement and what lies ahead, might be one of 2019, where cooperation was not off the table, but had its adherents.

“Our policy should be cooperative partnership that engages China on every level as we seek to work with China to solve problems,” argues the US Naval War College’s Goldstein. “They are a status-quo power that we can work with on various fronts: North Korea, Myanmar, pandemics, Belt and Road, climate change.”

Updated Nov. 24, 2020