Presidential election dominated the news in 2016 - almost

 One look at national politics in the United States in 2016  and one is met with one word, amazement, at the election of Donald J. Trump at his victory over the hyper organized and well-oiled campaign of Hillary Clinton, a 30 year veteran of state and national politics as well as global in her role as secretary of state. While Trump, hardly holding a mandate with 56.9 percent of the electoral college vote, and with only slight changes the day they voted, the reality has brought disbelief, shock, anger, public demonstration. It also has brought a herd mentality for progressive and liberals, as well as politicians, as they struggle with the new president, and his proposed cabinet.

There is delight in some quarters amongst those Republicans, even those who disagreed with, nor wanted Trump as their candidate, much less president, such as Mitt Romney as well as Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, who are enjoying having one of their own in the White House, after eight years of a Democratic presidency; even as they were able to halt significant chunks of Obama’s legislative proposals.. Now, as they see it, is their chance to rid the country of their much hated “Obamacare,” even if it did help 20 million people obtain health care.

While much has been written about the presidential election of 2016, and will continue to be, let it be said, that not since the election of 1800 between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson has there been such anger, slander, accusations, in the race to the White House. The end result left the country and much of the world in shock, and the Clintons, and the Democrats, in disarray.

There were other major national stories as well, and here is a list of some that hold equal weight, and some that might have just gotten buried under the election news.

Number Two: Russian spies on the election, and in a new variation on Cold War espionage, President Obama threatens Russia with sanctions, in an already tense eight years between the two countries. But, this was also preceded when it was discovered that the United States also spied on the cell phones of world leaders, including allies such as Angela Merkel of Germany. This may be less of a beginning, and more of a continuation. Critics contend that the US has also intervened, perhaps not electronically, in other countries elections, making it less honorable than it might seem. In one sense, it’s all over but the fighting as the greatest technological goods become Machiavellian in their use. Or, as one wit has said, “the revolution is now televised, and we can hear it, miles away.”

Number Three: With much pressure and almost salivation, by some economists, the Feds increased the interest rate,  after near zero rate for a decade, with an economy that showed some improvement, even if wages are flat. The ever cautious Janet Yellen gave a soupcon of an increase with a schedule of anticipated smaller increments - at least two are expected. While there may be no immediate fallout for the average person, there is hope among many that this might help move the economy along to further gains. Yellen is also in the crosshairs of Trump who has criticized the roie of the Fed and also her.

Number Four:  The lowered unemployment figure of 4.6 -- decreased by 0.3 percent points and gave hope to many job seekers, although the figure, like all, must be understood in light of those who give up looking, or those stuck in part-time jobs but who really want full time. Yet, it was still good news especially for the outgoing Obama administration. The ghosts of Adam Smith may be alive but where can it take the US? More arm twisting by Trump? Thaty can only take the nation so far. Time will tell, say most economists and financial analysts as well as Wall Street financiers.

Number Five: With many U.S. companies moving headquarters overseas to take advantage of lowered corporate tax rates, the Obama administration, who had labelled those moves as unpatriotic, came down hard on those that did and the result was a move that squelched a big deal between pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and Allergan. The so-called inversions, were a necessary move by corporations, say defenders, in a U.S. tax code that has not seen revision since the Kennedy administration. Trump has said that he will lower the rate, and maybe toss out the revisions by U.S. Secretary Jacob Lew.

Number Six: In a welcomed move U.S. Housing Prices have increased, in no small measure in the belief that Trump’s talk about tax cuts, and an increase in infrastructure spending may increase economic growth and inflation; maybe even hitting the targets that the Federal Reserve Board looks at. Standard and Poor’s Corelogic Case-Shiller in their 20 city index shows a 5.1 percent increase from October, and after a 5 percent increase in September. Seattle rings in at the highest with 10.7 percent and Portland at 10.3, but Chicago lags at 3.9 percent, only New York and Washington D.C. were in that group.. But, with growth at the top end, where will that leave those in the middle, or even the lower middle for affordable housing?

Electoral votes are in, and so is Donald Trump

Continuing the drama of the 2016 presidential election campaign, the electoral college, a unique staple of the American democracy began on Monday, to meet in their respective state capitals, and cast their votes, for either the president elect, Donald Trump, or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Much like the campaign, which began, seemingly, years ago, this aspect is not without controversy, as it, at least in the last few decades has chosen candidates who have lost the popular vote, most Democrats, notably Al Gore in the 2000 election, and now Clinton.

While no one seriously believes that the vote will tilt away from Trump to Clinton, it has given the atmosphere a highly charged atmosphere, of both partisanship and party loyalty, in what was one of the most divisive elections since 1800, which galvanized our current two party dyad, of Republican and Democrat, and the demise of the Federalist party. It also ushered in the tradition of negativity in U.S. politics that is almost expected, and nearly welcomed by the electorate.

There are 538 electors who are generally, though not always, party stalwarts either holding elective office, or significant financial donors. They make a single vote, and that vote is certified (on Jan. 6th) with 6 documents, and can also be objected to by lawmakers, one for the House of Representatives and one from the U.S. Senate. With the exception of 29 states, plus the District of Columbia, where they are required to vote for the candidate that won the popular vote, the rest are free agents. Those who don’t comply, are called faithless electors.

Trump received 306 electoral votes in the election and Clinton got 232, numbers that are strong enough to help him win, and her lose. But, he won no mandate, with exactly 56.9 percent of the electoral votes received; the 44th largest popular loss in 54 presidential elections, since 1804.

This is not the slimmest margin of victory in the electoral college in the last few decades that belonged to George W Bush with 50.4 percent and then, closer to Trump, was John F. Kennedy with 56.4 percent of the vote over Richard Nixon, in the 1960 election, mostly based on negative reactions to his Roman Catholicism.

While many Clinton supporters, and/or Trump Haters, want the electors to vote for Clinton, the established process would require that the decision be made in the House, for President, and the Senate for the Vice-President.  And, with a Republican dominated Congress, it’s unlikely that they would vote for Clinton.  

As of mid afternoon on Monday, Trump was sweeping Georgia with the entire lot of 16 electoral votes. And in some areas, Georgia included there has been some deviation, notably Baoky Vu who departed from the GOP majority, and was forced to resign.

Grabbing social media has been liberal outrage, and even anger, at the continuing existence of the College, what President Obama ruefully described as a “vestige” at his last press conference. He also said, to the disappointment of some, that there could be an alignment that would work for Democratic candidates. Speaking from the White House, Obama said: “But the truth of the matter is that if we have a strong message if we’re speaking to what the American people care about, typically the popular vote and the Electoral College vote will align.”

Many Democrats and independent party leaders, and members are calling for the elimination of the college. The president's reply to these wishes was: “If we look for one explanation, or one silver bullet or one easy fix for our politics, then we’re probably going to be disappointed,” he said. “There’s just a lot of factors in what’s happened - not just over the last few months but over the last decade that’s made both politics and governance more challenging.”

Any change would require a constitutional convention of the states and a three quarter vote in approval by them, another unlikely event. What most have called for is a requirement that all electors be required to vote for the candidate that most won the popular vote, to sidestep the above scenario.

Some have also objected to an implicit racism inherent in the purpose of the college, and while there is some historicity to this -Alexander Hamilton, was no fan of a popular vote; the requirements of landhilding white men to vote was an issue, since black slaves were inherently denied the vote, as were women.

James Madison the creator of the famous Federalist papers admitted, in a 1787 speech, that Negroes created “difficulties of a serious nature.”

His solution was to created the model that we use today: “Each state has a number of electoral votes roughly proportioned to population and the candidate who wins the majority of votes wins the election.” And, in response, “Madison knew that the North would outnumber the South, despite there being more than half a million slaves in the South who were their economic vitality, but could not vote. His proposition for the Electoral College included the “three-fifths compromise,” where black people could be counted as three-fifths of a person, instead of a whole. This clause garnered the state [Virginia] 12 out of 91 electoral votes, more than a quarter of what a president needed to win, noted Paul Finkelman, visiting law professor at University of Saskatchewan in Canada.

The resulting inequality of votes continued, and in its shadows were states that were able to place their restrictions on the votes of blacks, despite continued amendments that freed slaves and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Now, all of the opposition, anger, and digging through the history books is moot, as at Monday’s end Donald J. Trump was declared the winner of the electoral votes, as he heads to the presidency, and his Jan. 20 swearing in as the 45th president of the United States.

U.S. November Jobs Report is still a mixed bag with unexpected wage decrease

Employment and Unemployment

The much anticipated November Jobs Report, was released on Friday, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the last before the Federal Reserve Open Market committee meets, in two weeks, gave a stronger showing in jobs gained, 178,000, slightly higher than predicted,  but labor force participation remained at a steadfast 62.7 percent ,little changed from prior months.. The decrease in wages, from an October high, weakened the overall report, and gave mixed results..

Wages decreased by 3 cents after the much needed bump to 11 cents in October, thus showing that employers, while increasing their hire rate, are reluctant to increase salaries, this contributing to an uneven growth of the economy. Still, some others say that this number, 2.5 percent higher than last year, gives solace.

The lowered labor force participation comes, in part from retiring baby boomers, but figures also show that there is significantly less participation from those in their prime earning years, from 25 to 45 years of age, with some economists seeing this as still a depressed economy.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC in Pittsburgh noted this is “a solid report but not quite as good as the headline numbers would indicate.” However, there was pleasure in many quarters for the 4.6 unemployment rate, the lowest since 2007, yet the story behind the numbers is not as rosy, because that number also does not reflect the number of people stuck in part-time jobs, who’d like to work full-time, nor does it reflect the decrease in the labor force participation rate.

More optimistic observers see that the average wage growth, even though inconsistent, at 2.5 percent, give rise to some joy, especially those in the outgoing Obama administration, who can feel confident, that after 81 consecutive month of private sector growth, they are handing a strong economy to President-elect Donald Trump.

Others less sanguine feel that the mixed results show that the economy to gain its pre recession levels has a long way to go. And, with the Fed's anticipated rate increase this makes many economy hawks cheerful. Add to that increasing house prices, and a growing consumer confidence, many see that the this 3rd quarter growth is a true sign that the economy is on its way to recovery, spurring the Fed to increase interest rates.

There are also others that don’t share this belief.  “There’s no reason to pre-emptively slow the economy down, given that we’re starting from less than full employment,” said Elise Gould, an economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute in Washington. “Right now, the priority should be keeping the economy on track and moving it forward,”  reported The New York Times.

Even more than interest rate increases, which are expected, most labor specialists are looking at the kinds of jobs that have shown the increase - mainly jobs for those that are highly educated and trained in a specific skill set.

For those without those desired skills, the outlook is bleak. Indeed, most employers say that finding the right workers is their number one problem to fill the 5.5 million job openings in the U.S..

Many displaced from high-paying manufacturing jobs in the past are unwilling to take jobs in minimum wage service jobs, yet paradoxically many do not see manufacturing at those previous levels and wages returning, any time soon.

Continuing from the Times, “Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan and a former economic adviser to Mr. Obama, said that manufacturing, while still a driving force in the economy, employed fewer and fewer people. More than 80 percent of jobs are now in the service industry, Ms. Stevenson said, and Mr. Trump should be thinking more about how to match workers with those jobs.”

This is not only a problem for the U.S., but is also a global problem say many

From the report, here are the leaders:

“Employment in professional and business services rose by 63,000 in November and has risen by 571,000 over the year. Over the month, accounting and bookkeeping services added 18,000 jobs”

“Employment [also] continued to trend up in administrative and support services (+36,000), computer systems design and related services (+5,000), and management and technical consulting services (+4,000)”

“Health care employment rose by 28,000 in November. Within the industry, employment growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+22,000). Over the past 12 months, health care has added 407,000 jobs”

“Employment in construction continued on its recent upward trend in November." (+19,000), with a gain in residential specialty trade contractors (+15,000). Over the past 3 months construction has added 59,000 jobs, largely in residential construction.