Thursday, November 10, 2016

Trump's election to U.S. presidency sends shockwaves of near disbelief, with Clinton's stunning defeat

In a sharp departure from what the pollsters predicted and what most, if not all, of the news media (myself included), predicted, Donald Trump is now America’s 45th president, to the shock of many in this hotly contested, and contentious, presidential election. Wednesday’s news that the former businessman, and reality TV star, is now the nation’s chief executive, seems as odd as chalk is to cheese.

His clarion call to a base of angry and older white men - who made up over 60% of his vote, gave credence to the cultural, racial and educational divide that has marked the United States for over two decades. As they watched the progressive and liberal legislators, and legislation, give power to women, blacks, and gays, to their consternation, they voted with near religious fervor on Tuesday. This was indeed, some felt, their last stand to stop the final anathema: a female president, especially, the spouse of the often despised Bill Clinton.

The election of Donald Trump was less a victory of party, than a statement of design, under the palimpsest of the banner “time for a change”; now the nation, our allies, and those that support an international, and progressive agenda, wonder aloud what the future will hold. Already, despite the polite congratulations of world leaders, like Angela Merkel of Germany, there is, we hear, fear, on what can, or cannot remain: International trade agreements, world economy, terrorism or tariff protection. Considering the mostly negative, even gratuitous verbal violence, that Trump gave to these areas, is causing concern from Berlin to London, and from there to Prague, and even Paris,

It seems that liquidity in politics is as prevalent as it is on the balance sheet, as it is on the stock exchange, and Trump’s electoral map bled red on Wednesday morning. Taking mostly the largest share of electoral rich states -- except California - and nearly all of the South and a chunk of the so called “rust belt” states. His final electoral votes tallied 279, versus Clinton’s 228, in what can easily be described as a juggernaut.

The black vote -- longtime Clinton supporters -- came in at 12% the same that it did in 2012, but needed to be much, much bigger to stop the assault; the Latino vote, while expected to be a firewall in most areas, especially Florida, proved to be inadequate to the white vote 59.5 million -  that mobilized a block to quell even the 65% wave Latinos produced for Clinton.

The rub was that when compared with the 71 percent Obama gained, the outcome was inadequate. The Latino gains came through demography and not galvanization, Nevada excepted with the election of Catherine Corte Masto to their Senate..

Wisely, Trump concentrated on the old industrial North as he he took Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - even with only single digit leads, a lead is a lead.

Clinton’s camp struggled with Michigan and Wisconsin and the results showed, where, for the latter, she got 46.9 percent, to Trump’s 47.9, a razor thin margin,but enough for him to win. And, for Michigan her 47.3 percent, versus his of 47.6 was yet another win for him, but must have sent tremors through the Clinton camp. Significant, say some, now, are those that voted for third party candidates,and if they were votes for Clinton just might have pushed her over the finishing line.

With 45 million people voting early, it was seen as a net gain for her and resulting, if not by a wide margin, at least a slim one (which I also felt) the air practically crackled, as the Chicago native seemed to hover, in the polls, beyond even what were modest expectations.

The release of yet another batch of suspect emails from Clinton’s privater server was as unwelcome as it was untimely, yet FBI Director Comey, in an advance copy of “playing by the rule of unintended consequences” forged ahead, only to retreat with some undoubted communication from both the White House and the Clinton camp. Some say that the die was cast, at that point, and the undecided, decided -- against her.

On Tuesday, just after dinner time, in Illinois, things looked good for Clinton, especially with returns from Texas and Florida, and then those leads began to crumble as the race became tighter and tighter, and as the blue nearly vanished from the electoral maps.

The final electoral count came at nearly 3:00 a.m on Wednesday morning forcing Clinton to concede the win to Trump with final totals of 279 for Trump and 228 for Clinton.

Hovering in the background was a deeply divided country that was holding the aforementioned issues in hand; some of which had erupted in violence, at rallies,as some had seen, even  as “old” ten year old election hardware crept hand-in-hand with software issues; that seemed to be a proxy for the events swirling around them.

There was also the angry chorus of Hillary haters, whose script was based on a decades long cottage industry against her, and built on lies, more lies and pure lies. Gender definitely played a role, but the litany had taken hold. In short, the narrative of "crooked Hillary" worked, especially those who felt this was the last hand they could play. Even, if, as the New York Times described him as an “improbable champion.”

Still others disagreed and one emailed statement from North Carolina said this: “I live in a swing state and I can tell you this was not about white male angst over trade agreements or economic displacement since so many of them are on Social Security Disability collecting money from Federal Government! The election was about change, racism, misogyny, white supremacy and antisemitism. Join reality.”

On the domestic side, the first item on the Trump chopping block will be the Affordable Care Act, known colloquially as Obamacare, not insurance coverage, as many mistakenly believe, but legislation that requires having health insurance and receiving tax subsidies, to pay for health care.

He can, as NPR notes, do it with, or without Congress, either by gutting it without redemption, or by altering its structure so much, that it dies a slow death. What happens to the over 25 million people that now have access to the most basic, and preventive care, is not fully known; although Trump suggested health care savings accounts and tax deductions, on the campaign trail.

Next up for a re-up, besides is the makeup of the Supreme Court, now that Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland’s name is one for the history books. With no moderate voice, and the list that we have seen of possible nominees, decisions that reach that august body will more and more lean to the right. Much now depends on Judges Ginsburg, Sotomayor, Breyer, et al.

With a Republican controlled Congress, it will be a point of conjecture, to see how Trump will work with Paul Ryan, as speaker of the house, since there is no love lost between he and Republican stalwarts, even such young turks such as Ryan, not to mention those who Trump has belittled and fought with. It’s a safe bet that he won’t get advice from George and Laura Bush, both of whom checked “none of the above” on their ballots, for their presidential selection.

In many quarters some of the more vulnerable people that the Trump administration has targeted: LGBT organization, Planned Parenthood, consumers are already girding up to preserve what has been a long slog to gain what they currently have.

Equality Illinois, a long established organization for LGBT Illinoisans has said, in a press release Wednesday: “What last night has confirmed for us is that the equality we have won to date is not guaranteed without our vigilance years,last night was so devastating because we have elected to the presidency a man who has publicly targeted immigrants, children and grandchildren of immigrants, Muslims, the disabled, women, and many others.  Last night was so devastating because we have elected to the vice presidency a man who served as a key architect in an attempt to legalize religious discrimination against the LGBTQ community in every facet of our public lives.”

Linda Diamond Shapiro, interim CEO, Planned Parenthood of Illinois, in an emailed statement said: "For 100 years, Planned Parenthood has faced challenges and attacks from people opposed to our mission to provide expert reproductive health care. Through every attack, we have come out stronger. We’re going to use that strength to lead in the coming days, months and years - for the patients who rely on us, and in collaboration with our allies across progressive movements."  

The incoming transition team has planned to remove the protections won by President Obama with the Dodd-Frank Act, and Crain's New York reported on Thursday that “Donald Trump's transition team vowed to dismantle the Dodd-Frank law, saying the 2010 financial reform statute "does not work for working people."”

In a statement on GreatAgain.gov, a site launched Thursday to articulate the incoming administration's plans, President-elect Trump's team said it "will be working to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Act and replace it with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation."
While Thursday’s meeting with Trump and President Obama was cordial enough aides made it clear that health care, immigration, and jobs “big league” jobs were on the president-elect’s hit list.
Among progressives, liberals, and centrists the election results bring a true sense of mourning not solely for the chance lost of the first female president, but the potential loss of programs, and legislation that has helped those most vulnerable in society. And, for many, that loss is great indeed.
On January 20th Donald Trump will be sworn in as the nation’s chief executive.



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