As Americans head to the polls Tuesday, and on the heels of record crowds for early voting, the two presidential contenders front runner Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, after crisscrossing the country for last minute votes, face a vastly different electorate with shifting patterns not seen before. It is less white, and increasingly diverse, especially among groups that have shown substantial growth since the last election, especially among Democrats and those that lean to that party.
It also has a few hallmarks, according to the latest study by Pew Research: there are 27.3 million eligible voters in the Latino community, representing 12 percent of all voters; and for the so-called baby boomers, this may be the last time that will be a majority force as they age out of dominance, since 1980.
In 2012 they held 70 percent of the presidential vote, and that figure is now expected to decline to beyond the 56 percent from that year.
For the two contenders, much of their appeal has to be divided amongst those who have the cultural history to know anything about them; and also in consideration of those of an even earlier era - the Greatest Generation, now also shrinking -- while another group, Generation X’ers are holding a slight edge: 45%- 49% for the GOP.
This seems to be a group that Trump wanted to court, especially those that are white and working class, and male. Yet, his debate comment that his nonpayment of taxes “makes me smart” may make some of those voters wince in the voting booth.
Another interesting trend is the growing role of independent voters, who have also shown an increase, especially among millennials. The study showed that “Among Millennials, the youngest adult generation (today ages 18-35), 41% identify as independents, compared with 34% who identify as Democrats and just 22% who identify as Republicans. The share of Millennials who identify as independent is up eight points since 2008,” as researchers discovered.
With those statistics the two contenders had their work cut out for them to frame issues that would appeal to younger voters, not an easy case for two people well into their 70s (one of whom is a grandparent) and whose platform - Clinton excepting - does not address issues important to them. But, in a perhaps unexpected outlier is that for party affiliation alone, they tend to be Democratic; therefore add the Bernie Sanders effect that inserted a plank to her platform for debt free college education and even free community college education.
There certainly will be no love lost in the Latino community for Trump, with his trashing of immigrants, and lies about Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto, and that country paying for the wall. What effect that might be seen will only be revealed on Tuesday night. Part of the problem, despite the growth, is that more than half of the eligible Latino voters (52%) live in the non battleground states of California , Texas and New York.
They also traditionally lag behind blacks (67%) and whites at 64 percent, in terms of voter participation. This year may be different since 44 percent of eligible Latino voters are millennials, an effect that could be problematic for the New York businessman. Especially because of the following battleground stations the Latino voters percentages have increased; Arizona with 22 percent, Florida holding 18 percent and Nevada, with 17 percent.
Race is still a factor in the electorate as it is in other areas and Pew found that “Among non-white voters, the Democratic Party holds a wide advantage in leaned party affiliation and there is little difference in patterns across generations. Roughly seven-in-ten non-white voters in each generation identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.”
It is widely acknowledged that Clinton - perhaps in a legacy nod to her husband's administration - has captured much of the black vote and according to the New York Times she has has “committed several million dollars of additional funding in recent days to aid the entire Democratic ticket, money that will be used in part for an extensive program to target African-American voters.”
In a related effort, the Clinton campaign has been told that, to secure even more votes, that black candidates in down ballot tickets (in southern states) have to also be cash infused to propel the former secretary of state, and first lady, to reenter the White House. For statistical purposes Barack Obama received 71 percent of that vote, and Mitt Romney 27 percent in 2012.
As many a media savvy reporter has noted, there has been a durable education divide between the two candidates, for voters that have college degrees. For Clinton supporters there are 52 percent, and for Trump 29 percent. 41 percent of Trump supporters have no college degree, versus 36 percent that support Clinton.
While many contemporary accounts focus on this narrative, few have noted that since 1992, a college degree didn’t matter in most presidential elections, and in one of those political ironies, Bill Clinton got 51 percent of those voters without a college degree versus 37 percent for Bob Dole.
The shifting patterns have changed dramatically with college versus no college and “Patterns in party affiliation are the reverse among college graduates. The Democratic Party currently holds a 53% to 41% advantage in leaned party identification among voters with a college degree or more,” noted the people at Pew.
Conversely, “The Republican Party’s gains among those with no college experience are particularly pronounced among white voters. Currently, 59% of whites with no college experience identify as Republican or lean Republican, compared with just 33% who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This is a dramatic shift from 2007, when the Democratic Party held a slight 46% to 42% edge among non-college whites in partisan affiliation.”
The end of the 2016 election may prove to be a relief to many, and a bellwether instruction for others; but one constant is that it may prove to be the harbinger of a different electorate, and a different strategy, in future presidential elections, and beyond.
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