In the midst of the bombs on Syria, and the nuclear tests by North Korea, and the news about the investigation of the Trump campaign, and family members, over their pre White House chats with Russian officials, plus the end of the bromance with Vladimir Putin, by President Trump, there is a reset brewing for Trumpcare, or as some Washington wags are calling it, Trumpcare 2.0.
Beginning Monday there have been ads on air, both radio and television, social media, and the like, by a group called America First Policies to help hit the button on a revitalization of the defeated bill, to the tune of $3 million dollars. The Washington Post described the efforts, that were also shared by New York Magazine. In brief, they said:
“In a phone call, the Trump campaign veterans who run the organization described the expenditure as a gesture of appreciation to Trump’s friends in the chamber as well as a way to encourage other House Republicans to get behind the effort to revive health-care legislation. The $3 million “advocacy campaign” will be split among the 12 Republicans beginning Monday and feature broadcast, digital and social components, the advisers said.The television and Web spots are titled “Repeal Now” and feature a script that praises the House members by name for “taking on Nancy Pelosi,” the House Democratic leader, and “standing with President Trump to repeal Obamacare now.”
Countering that effort by the president’s supporters are a series of ads, especially on the radio, by AARP warning the public that there are “behind the door” meetings to start a revitalization, and notes, especially, to shorten the life of Medicare. Add to the loss of over $840 billion over 10 years in Medicaid, and the die is cast.
The former certainly represents a strong effort to relaunch the bill that was “rocked” as New York Magazine described it it, since Trump, and Speaker Paul Ryan, faced intense opposition as it tried to replace the the 2010 Affordable Care Act, the legacy of President Barack Obama. And, the latter to sustain the opposition, in whatever guise that it attempts to portray itself.
AARP’s effort may prove to be effective, as recent polls show that the public feel that Democrats are better at handling healthcare than Republicans. Yet, while this is trending high in the polls, the fact remains that Trumpcare was not about health coverage, but was essentially a tax cut. As the authors noted,, “This is essentially true. Trumpcare itself was a tax cut — the bill eliminated Obamacare’s 3.8 percent tax on investment income, and made up the lost revenue by throwing millions of poor people off of health insurance.”
The public sentiment is in agreement, and they know that they will lose with the Trump approach; which was recognized by more moderate Republicans who opposed the AHCA because it would leave 24 million more people uninsured by 2026, rather than under current law.
"The headline would still be, 'Millions are deprived of health care,'" said Krista Jenkins, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University and director of its PublicMind survey research group. "That narrative remains, that we're taking something away from people who already have it. That's a very hard sell, if not impossible,” in an interview with NJ.com.
If this is not eventually done, as the Wall Street Journal described it, the loss to donors and supporters will be considerable: “Leaving the health law’s taxes in place — particularly the 3.8 percent tax on investment income —could pose challenges for the tax bill. Passive owners of many businesses pay their companies’ taxes on their individual tax returns and face that 3.8 percent tax. If Republicans lower big corporations’ tax rates and leave that 3.8 percent tax, business groups will likely object that they aren’t getting parity.”
The White House also needs the money from the repeal to help fund the tax overhaul and the tax code revision. In a sharp reversal from earlier statements from Trump, Mick Mulvaney, his budget director, said that had the president saying he was going to do tax reform next, now says that has to wait. He said in an interview with Fox Business that if health care doesn’t happen “fast enough, I’ll start the taxes. But, the tax reform and the tax cuts are better if I can do health care first.”
The Washington Post reported last week that congress changed budget rules to make it easier “to pass a broad overhaul of the tax code once the roughly $1 trillion in taxes that are in the Affordable Care Act have already been repealed.”
Mulvaney has said that doing health care first can help build momentum “after we fix health care,” and that the plan “is trying to do” it first. In, and of itself, that may prove to be difficult, because, “the greatest threat to Trumpcare’s passage isn’t the wavering commitment of the president’s erstwhile allies, but the resilient opposition of the House’s moderate Republicans and far-right zealots,” emphasized by the New York Magazine coverage.
Taking it one step further, an adviser to America First Policies suggested that the group could eventually switch from carrots to sticks, telling the Post, “We’re starting positive, but all options are on the table.”
Money may well be the stick to spur a revitalization, and as the Koch brothers have already said, any lawmaker who gave a full assault on the ACA would be rewarded with that most persuasive of tools - money - specifically campaign money for those who join them in their radical approach to gutting the AHCA.
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has set a hopeful date of August for tax reform, but critics note that this is an ambitious date and and that, “no president has managed to pass comprehensive tax reform in three decades.”
The Financial Times says that the administration is trying to find “ways to make the US tax system simpler and more competitive,” and while pushing ahead, has also found, that “among the key sticking points is a “border adjusted” plan that would, in effect, tax imports while exempting exports. Senior administration officials have told the FT that the controversial measure is unlikely to survive, a development that would leave a $1tn hole in Republican tax plans over 10 years.”
Trump, in that same report by NJ.com, also told “the Wall Street Journal that he might cut off federal subsidies that allow insurers to reduce deductibles and out of pocket costs for lower-income Americans unless Democrats negotiate on repealing the health care law. The subsidies affect 7 million Americans”
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