Despite feeble first quarter growth of 0.7 in economic growth, America’s slowest place in three years, and largely attributable to weak consumer spending, economists saw this seasonally adjusted figure, for the gross domestic product, in line with historical precedent. On Friday, however, that news, was balanced with the April Jobs Report showing the addition of 211,000 jobs, pushing, by economic standards, the country to full employment.
Exceeding the predicted 190,000, there were certain stars: retail which had previously been declining, now added 6,300 jobs; other leads were leisure and hospitality, that added 55,000, and health care that added 37,000. As many have surmised these are lower paying jobs, than some would like, yet the increase is notable.
Equally shining was information technology that added 480,000, mostly full-time, but even more significantly there was a decline from 8.9 percent to 8.6 percent decline in the the U-6 rate, a broader measure for those workers that are stuck in part-time jobs, but want full-time hours; and, this is the best figure seen since November 2007.
For those that were dismayed by the March report, (revised down by 19,000 jobs to 79,000) now seen as an aberration, April gave hope to even more improvements. “The bounce in jobs growth confirmed that the slowdown in March was a weather-related aberration”, said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets for Citizens Bank. "Businesses are certainly hiring and there's no sign that we see of any bump in the road in hiring trends," he told Business Insider.
What stood out for many was the 4.4% unemployment rate, the lowest since May 2007, even more of an indicator that the country is moving towards full-employment, a condition where most people who are looking for a job, find one.
The figures for retail, are ironically set against a unique scenario “as roughly 3,500 stores are expected to close over the next few months with retail giants like Macy's and JCPenney shuttering locations. Department stores, for example, shed 600 jobs even as the broader sector increased hiring,” noted the Insider.
Sobering the mostly good news is that wages took another dip over the last calendar year. As noted, “wage growth slowed last month, with average hourly earnings increasing by 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.6%. This has been one blip on the horizon that has given most economists, and government officials, both a pause, and a cause of concern.
Close on the heels of that news is Labor-force participation which has seen its own rise and fall, this time from 63 percent to 62,9. In fact, the number of civilian workers over the age of 16, looking for work “has plunged since the recession.”
One significant reason, for that, is the large population of baby-boomers are nearing retirement age and are beginning to retire.
To no one’s surprise, all of this news suggests that the Feds will give another rate increase for June, with most predicting a quarter point bump, and in December many are predicting a 57.2 chance for another increase.
"The Federal Reserve, while not a religious entity, has indicated that its members have faith that the economy will return to a familiar, steady growth path after a lackluster start to the year," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com in an interview with CNBC.
"The April jobs report helps them to keep their own brand of faith, meaning that the odds are good that the outlook remains for rising interest rates,” he summarized, giving faith to hope.
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