Donald Trump and the road to redemption

It’s been a tough week for President Donald Trump as tales of sexual encounters with Russian prostitutes - playing tag -- and an apparent endorsement that “Russia has the best looking hookers,” have been revealed to the press; along with one determined woman, and former sexual partner, a pornographic movie actress named Stormy Daniels, detailed, as much as she could on the daytime television show “The View”, and then the FBI raid on the office, apartment and hotel room, of his personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.

It’s a safe bet that there was more hand wringing in the White House than the proverbial colloquialism of Carter having pills. But, more pressing are the reasons, that Special Investigator Bob Mueller is interested: obstruction of justice in the 2016 election campaign, and one that the president asked fired FBI Director, James Comey, to intervene, and stop.

The charges are serious, and the investigation, not matter, is precariously close to connecting dots on the actions of Trump, and his family members.

In an unrelated matter, Jared Kushner apparently lying saying that several of his eponymously named apartment buildings had zero occupancy, when in fact they did, thus exposing him to more public scrutiny, than he wishes.

With rumors swirling in Washington, that he wants to fire Mueller, and try to end the investigation, that he calls “fake news”,  but which the FBI and CIA say were credible threats; and now Comey, also making an appearance on “The View” says would not stop it, next comes former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani saying, and confirmed by the White House, that he will be joining the president’s legal team, to put an end to the investigation for “the good of the country.”

Enter Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell who says, in response to those that there will independent oversight if Trump fires Mueller; yet, McConnell, playing old school cred, to the hilt says that there will be no firing.

If this all seems like a tawdry version of “The Rich and Famous” then so, but fifteen months into a Trump presidency, and scores of departed staffers, it has all come at the wrong time in the aftermath of Syrian gassing of “rebel” villagers and the sight of sick children, on American evening news, and an upcoming meeting with the North Korean president Kim Jong Un, then it gets even more serious, especially as the two sides don’t agree on much, not to mention whether there is demilitarization or denuclearizeation. A semantic reference that is, an important distinction --- divest of nuclear arms, or only in the Korean Peninsula?

Luckily, in a surprise announcement, on Friday, North Korea announced that it would close a key nuclear warhead test site; a major event, and one that will make negotiations easier --- what is not know is whether this is deliberate or part of the gamesmanship that has been known to exist between our two countries.

Trump has said he will attend, the meeting, but also to be prepared to walkout of the meeting if he doesn’t like the direction, that it might head to. But, will he, or won’t he abandon the bromance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, or will he say nyet?

Resorting to a litany of tweets exhorting, name calling and making oblique references to jail, for all that have said anything remotely different than his own version of the truth, this is making most observers dizzy, as they try to keep the eye on the ball, and the president whose mercurial, and often impulsive, actions make policy supremely difficult in this important era.

What is lacking, and what was the subject of a recent article in The Economist, is that Trump has built the party and the administration around personal loyalty to him, and to nothing else; all of which makes most observers extremely nervous.

It is certainly acceptable for any leader to be loyal but a personal litmus test, is not one that has been seen before. And, this is a far departure from Woodrow Wilson who would assemble his advisers an cabinet members and say that they were duty bound to the Constitution, the rule of law, and the tenants of their party, to move ahead.

Intertwined with domestic and foreign challenges, Trump’s transformation (despite some initial un-willingness to go beyond the campaign circus and to the White House) has solidified into a reformation that, at its best, can be disastrous. And, that his level of distraction because of the personal revelations and all of the above make his entry on the world stage, deep cause for worry.

As the Economist editors noted, “At the heart of his system of power is his contempt for the truth. In a memoir published this week (see Lexington) James Comey, whom Mr Trump fired as director of the FBI, laments “the lying about all things, large and small, in service to some code of loyalty that put the organisation above morality and above the truth”. Mr Trump does not—perhaps cannot—distinguish between facts and falsehoods. As a businessman and on the campaign he behaved as if the truth was whatever he could get away with. And, as president, Mr Trump surely believes that his power means he can get away with a great deal.”

Along the same lines, the push for a more hawkish security policy and the return of John Bolton as NSA chief causes even more concern. Chief among his character, still part of the 80’s work under George Bush he was fiercely ideological, strident and prejudicial; in fact, he was a protégé of Sen. Jesse Helms and helped to prevent attempts for enrollment of African American voters.

The refutation of former Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, and his controlled, and data driven, approach, and the onset of Mike Pompeo (whose recent victory) comes as a surprise, but also might be more of a sleight of hand trick with the North Korean government.

While many want to see some leveled success or governance with the Trump presidency there is one overriding factor that is rooted in fact: “The cult of loyalty to Mr Trump and his base affects government in three ways. First, policymaking suffers as, instead of a coherent programme, America undergoes government by impulse—anger, nativism, mercantilism—beyond the reach of empirical argument. Mr Trump’s first year has included accomplishments: the passage of a big tax cut, a regulatory rollback and the appointment of conservative judges. But most of his policymaking is marked by chaos rather than purpose. He was against the Trans-Pacific trade deal, then for it, then against it again; for gun control, then for arming teachers instead.”

Simply put, this galvanizing and problematic presidency is near bankrupt in how to govern, and one more scandal, has the opportunity to chasten Trump, on the road to redemption, and away from perdition, or to face defeat in the midterm elections.

March Jobs Report shows less, but some say this is OK

Depending on how you read the March Jobs Report, you were either elated at the good news of a steadily expanding economy, or you held back on the elation seeing the volatility of an economy, that although improving, still has that as an option, and one that does not make for easy answers, or assumptions.

Market analysts and economists had predicted 185,000 in job gains, but the actual number was a disappointing 103,000; a figure that some say arose from the heady numbers seen in February, but which most people see rose from a forecast of mild weather, for that month, which did not bear out for March.

On the brighter side was “Jed Kolko, chief economist at Indeed, said Friday that while March’s total job gains are fewer than expected and on the surface appear to be a disappointment, this level of job growth is “more than enough to keep up with the slow-growing working-age population,” reported Yahoo Finance.

Optimism aside, one of the brighter spots, was the more accurate household survey, which saw a lowered figure of 8 percent, of those that were actively seeking full-time work, and those that were stuck in part-time work.

It had hit 8.2 percent, the prior month. “Additionally, weekly hours worked, which some economists had expected to decline on account of poor weather in March, held steady at 34.5.,” said Yahoo.

“March was the 90th consecutive month of job gains, extending the longest streak on record. In general, job growth is expected to slow down as unemployment remains very low,” an economic standard, reported CNN, in its coverage..

“Employers have added an average of just over 200,000 jobs per month so far in 2018, a pace that has held relatively steady for the past two years. The unemployment rate hasn’t budged since October, but remains at its lowest level since 2000,” noted The New York Times.

Nudging, some might say inching its way, upward, was the average wage with even the slightest of increase that also gives hope to the hopeless, with an increase of 2.7 percent, over last year, (0.3 percent from last month) a paltry figure in pre-recession days, but now, after months of no significant increase, gave some economists and market analysts hope, even as they caution in trying to see too much in these year over year comparisons.

It’s not just policy wonks that are concerned about wage growth, and “The bigger picture is that wage growth remains weaker than most economists would expect when unemployment is so low. Economists have proposed a long list of possible explanations, from globalization to weak productivity growth. Most still expect employers to have to raise pay eventually to attract and retain workers. But so far, employers are resisting.

“It’s a standoff, almost, on wages,” said Jason Guggisberg, a vice president at the staffing firm Adecco. “Who’s going to go first?.”

Staying steady was the banner rate of 4.1 unemployment, and one that with the American Data Processing forecast of a one point decrease, failed to materialize.

Looking at the glass half full, and not half empty, was also a feat for some. In fact, ““We’ve had such unsustainably strong results in January and February that it was largely expected that we were due for some payback,” said Ellen Zentner, chief United States economist for Morgan Stanley. “The weak number in headline payrolls does not change the fact that trend job growth is strong,” she told the Times.

For those that were looking to see if the Federal Reserve was going to step on the brakes for another interest rate hike, outside of those scheduled, that also is not happening; and as Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said, on Friday: “The labor market remains strong, and my colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee expect it to remain strong,” Mr. Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago, according to prepared remarks released by the central bank. He added that he would be “looking for an additional pickup in wage growth as the labor market strengthens further.”

Still a problem is employers finding qualified people to staff those empty cubicles, and in the tech industry, that has been a tough nut to crack, and for those whose sights are elsewhere, expanding the pool to include retirees and even lowering admission standards to those, as we reported last month, who fail drug testing is also an option.

“I’ve had more conversations about retirees in the last month than I have in the last year,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup, a staffing firm. “That’s an ideal population because they’re still highly skilled and they’re experienced.”

With many only supplementing their retired income to help add to vacations, or college funds for grandchildren, that might be an option; but, most think that an increase in wage would be the best, as did the retail sector in the holiday season, like Target, who offered higher wages than the local market, in an effort to attract, not only more, but a higher quality employee.

Manufacturing and health care industries each added 22,000 jobs in March. Business services gained 33,000. But retail businesses shed 4,000 jobs and construction companies lost 15,000 workers after going on a hiring spree in February.

There needs to be some caution when reporting these numbers since “business service” is catchall category that lacks a clear definition, and construction, shows what goes up, must come down.

Next month, could come a cropper, since figures are always subject to revision, but the best bet seems to suggest, that we accept market volatility, and that a certain type of employment growth can be accepted, and welcomed; but if there are higher wages than has been shown, then we can see the whole shebang starting to heat up.