March Jobs Report shows less, but some say this is OK

Depending on how you read the March Jobs Report, you were either elated at the good news of a steadily expanding economy, or you held back on the elation seeing the volatility of an economy, that although improving, still has that as an option, and one that does not make for easy answers, or assumptions.

Market analysts and economists had predicted 185,000 in job gains, but the actual number was a disappointing 103,000; a figure that some say arose from the heady numbers seen in February, but which most people see rose from a forecast of mild weather, for that month, which did not bear out for March.

On the brighter side was “Jed Kolko, chief economist at Indeed, said Friday that while March’s total job gains are fewer than expected and on the surface appear to be a disappointment, this level of job growth is “more than enough to keep up with the slow-growing working-age population,” reported Yahoo Finance.

Optimism aside, one of the brighter spots, was the more accurate household survey, which saw a lowered figure of 8 percent, of those that were actively seeking full-time work, and those that were stuck in part-time work.

It had hit 8.2 percent, the prior month. “Additionally, weekly hours worked, which some economists had expected to decline on account of poor weather in March, held steady at 34.5.,” said Yahoo.

“March was the 90th consecutive month of job gains, extending the longest streak on record. In general, job growth is expected to slow down as unemployment remains very low,” an economic standard, reported CNN, in its coverage..

“Employers have added an average of just over 200,000 jobs per month so far in 2018, a pace that has held relatively steady for the past two years. The unemployment rate hasn’t budged since October, but remains at its lowest level since 2000,” noted The New York Times.

Nudging, some might say inching its way, upward, was the average wage with even the slightest of increase that also gives hope to the hopeless, with an increase of 2.7 percent, over last year, (0.3 percent from last month) a paltry figure in pre-recession days, but now, after months of no significant increase, gave some economists and market analysts hope, even as they caution in trying to see too much in these year over year comparisons.

It’s not just policy wonks that are concerned about wage growth, and “The bigger picture is that wage growth remains weaker than most economists would expect when unemployment is so low. Economists have proposed a long list of possible explanations, from globalization to weak productivity growth. Most still expect employers to have to raise pay eventually to attract and retain workers. But so far, employers are resisting.

“It’s a standoff, almost, on wages,” said Jason Guggisberg, a vice president at the staffing firm Adecco. “Who’s going to go first?.”

Staying steady was the banner rate of 4.1 unemployment, and one that with the American Data Processing forecast of a one point decrease, failed to materialize.

Looking at the glass half full, and not half empty, was also a feat for some. In fact, ““We’ve had such unsustainably strong results in January and February that it was largely expected that we were due for some payback,” said Ellen Zentner, chief United States economist for Morgan Stanley. “The weak number in headline payrolls does not change the fact that trend job growth is strong,” she told the Times.

For those that were looking to see if the Federal Reserve was going to step on the brakes for another interest rate hike, outside of those scheduled, that also is not happening; and as Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said, on Friday: “The labor market remains strong, and my colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee expect it to remain strong,” Mr. Powell told the Economic Club of Chicago, according to prepared remarks released by the central bank. He added that he would be “looking for an additional pickup in wage growth as the labor market strengthens further.”

Still a problem is employers finding qualified people to staff those empty cubicles, and in the tech industry, that has been a tough nut to crack, and for those whose sights are elsewhere, expanding the pool to include retirees and even lowering admission standards to those, as we reported last month, who fail drug testing is also an option.

“I’ve had more conversations about retirees in the last month than I have in the last year,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup, a staffing firm. “That’s an ideal population because they’re still highly skilled and they’re experienced.”

With many only supplementing their retired income to help add to vacations, or college funds for grandchildren, that might be an option; but, most think that an increase in wage would be the best, as did the retail sector in the holiday season, like Target, who offered higher wages than the local market, in an effort to attract, not only more, but a higher quality employee.

Manufacturing and health care industries each added 22,000 jobs in March. Business services gained 33,000. But retail businesses shed 4,000 jobs and construction companies lost 15,000 workers after going on a hiring spree in February.

There needs to be some caution when reporting these numbers since “business service” is catchall category that lacks a clear definition, and construction, shows what goes up, must come down.

Next month, could come a cropper, since figures are always subject to revision, but the best bet seems to suggest, that we accept market volatility, and that a certain type of employment growth can be accepted, and welcomed; but if there are higher wages than has been shown, then we can see the whole shebang starting to heat up.