Women and voting rights might change tone of midterms

Last week’s gubernatorial nominee victory for Stacey Abrams in Deep Red Georgia showed the nation that the upcoming midterm elections are going to have, not only a different gender, but a different complexion, than previously seen in statewide races across the nation.

Born in no small part from the #MeToo movement as famed male celebrities were toppled from their kingdoms, the influx of women, especially black women, into the mix may give some unique opportunities for Democrats as they attempt to retake the House. And, that, in and of itself, has an undercurrent of, and this is not too strong of a word, disgust for the chameleon statements, and seemingly bizarre behavior of Donald Trump, by many of even his staunchest supporters.

Joined to that effort is a growing change in voter rights, especially in New York, to give former inmates the right to vote; and with many of the formerly incarcerated leaning blue, the race to puncture the GOP balloon is evident..

Meanwhile, in Chicago, and other urban areas, there is now a  push to allow 16 year olds, the right to vote, even if  in only restricted areas, such as education; another robust effort to dent the majority political party; and in an area where state level politicians are often made.

Not to be forgotten is the sad record, that since 2013 there have been 312 incidents of gunfire in American schools, and much of this effort to lower the voter age can be attributed to the youth protests developed after the Parkland school shootings.

There has also been a quiet storm in the South to get out the black vote in midterm elections that traditionally many frequently sit out, dismissing them as an “off year” election, and not worth the time to vote. Ultimately, in many areas, this inaction has ceded power to the GOP.

A successful push for the Democrats has been the power of black women voters, widely acknowledged in Alabama with the recent victory of Doug Jones over Roy Moore; and, this was not a new phenomena, but what has blossomed is a demand to to see, as a result, someone of their own as candidates.. Ergo Abrams.

A planned effort

Vox.com noted, in its report that “It was the result of months of effort by an increasingly influential network of political groups and outreach initiatives, many of them helmed by black women, that are eager to build political power and influence in black communities.

“Black women are ‘sick and tired’ of being thanked by progressives for being their most loyal voting base. Black women are demanding that the progressive movement show us they respect our leadership and the power of our vote, by investing more in Black women running for office; and Black women-led organizing and institutions,” Melanie Campbell, president and CEO of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation and the Black Women’s Roundtable, said in a statement hours before polls closed.”

Simply put, “As we look at stopping the rollbacks of the past 50 years of progress that are happening at the state, local, and federal level, we need more progressive voices in legislative bodies and in executive chambers,” Kimberly Peeler-Allen, the co-founder of Higher Heights for America, a national organization that works to get more black women involved in politics, told P.R. Lockhart, in January. “The best way to do that is to elect black women.”

Many attributed gender bias, among other factors, to the demise of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, in spite of the the Russian obstruction, and interference,  And, while some have said it might be better to pull back on another female candidate, it seems, for southern black women, the time to push the needle in their direction has come.

Collectively, there was $1.2 million spent to help Abrams.

Youth votes

Taking a look at what was once the future electorate, a movement has taken hold to lower the voting age to 16, in the Land of Lincoln.

“Vote16 Illinois is a student-led organization established in August 2016 with more than 100 student members. Its goal is to lower the voting age from 18 to 16 in Illinois.

"So many kids are rising up, and they’re demanding change," said Daviana Soberanis, a junior at Northside College Prep who is a field organizing chair and board member of Vote16 Illinois. "Kids especially want to have their voices heard,” she told The Chicago Reader, an alternative newspaper, serving metropolitan Chicago.

The Reader also noted that “Takoma Park, Maryland, was the first U.S. city to lower the voting age to 16, in 2013. During the first election it held when 16-year-olds were allowed to cast ballots, 17 percent of eligible minors voted. That was double the percentage of voters 18 and older that turned out, although the election had no contested races or referendums.”

Illinois State Rep. Kelly M. Cassidy, has given her support to the movement, and her office made an important point: "We trust kids at 16 alone behind the wheel of a 2,000-pound vehicle on the road," said John Pearl, Cassidy's chief of staff. "I mean, at some point you have to realize that 18 is extremely arbitrary. . . . It's not like when you turn 18 you automatically have a serious increase in understanding of political knowledge."

A change in the state constitution would be needed, to effect the change, but “The constitution also requires that voting laws be consistent across the state. Vote16 Illinois is working with lawmakers to introduce legislation next year to modify the constitution to allow municipalities with more than 25,000 people—making them governed by home rule—to lower the voting age.”

Surprisingly, looking at a narrow time frame, than many would think possible, Cassidy and Pearl, see five years as a goal, and not a decades long effort.

Voting rights restored, in some cases, for felons

Allowing those that have been previously incarcerated is another sea change affecting the midterms, and this time from those who normally would be denied the right to vote, or would they?

The New York Times recently examined this area of opportunity for the Democrats, which few have thought, about and looked at this scenario: ”If a person is convicted of first-degree murder in the state of Vermont, he or she will retain the right to vote — even while incarcerated. But a person who commits perjury in Mississippi could be permanently barred from casting a ballot there.”

“It is up to states — not the federal government — to say whether convicted felons can vote, and which ones, and when. So the rules for convicted criminals can change, sometimes drastically, from one state to the next..

Methodology varies in determining exact numbers, but it’s seems safe to say,  in 2010, 8 percent of Americans were convicted felons in 2010; with an estimated 6.1 million barred from voting, “because of felony disenfranchisement laws,” says Sarah K.S. Shannon, an assistant sociology professor at the University of Georgia.

“In terms of inequality, clearly, felony disenfranchisement laws have racially disproportionate effects. Our estimates lay that bare,” Dr. Shannon said. “In addition, because these laws can vary so widely by state, the effects are also spatially disparate, impacting some states’ electorates more than others.”

Added to the mix, or some would say, confusion, there are certain states that some felons are barred for life -- such as Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee -- absent a pardon, then still others, again pending state laws, they could be rescinded.

The Times also noted two hugely significant acts, one present, and one past: “Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York, a Democrat, said this past week that he intended to use an executive order to restore voting rights to felons who are on parole, essentially circumventing legislation that allowed convicted felons to vote only once they were on probation or had completed parole.

Terry McAuliffe, the former governor of Virginia, did something similar in 2016 when he issued an executive order to restore voting rights for convicted felons who had served their full sentences. The Virginia Supreme Court struck that down, so Mr. McAuliffe instead began restoring voting eligibility for felons on an individual basis. The current governor, Ralph Northam, a Democrat like his predecessor, is continuing those efforts.”

In another effort for voting rights, state Rep. Juliana Stratton, who is also J.B. Pritzker's lieutenant governor running mate successfully lobbied for the voting right of pretrial detainees, those who have been arrested and jailed, bit awaiting trial, and technically not guilty of a crime, noted the Reader. 

With contention on the GOP side of the aisle the argument was there was little concern for those victimized, by crime until Stratton pointed out that the detainees did not have enough money for bond. Paying bond, and leaving jail allows them to vote.

In the end, Stratton won, and the bill - IL HB 4469, was sent to Gov. Rauner for his signature, in late June.  In response, the ACLU issued the following statement: 

"The full Illinois Senate approved House Bill 4469 on a vote of 38-17. The bill expands the opportunity to vote for person being detained pre-trial and provide those leaving prisons in Illinois with a voter registration application and a “know your rights guide” tailored to people with records."

Women wanted - experienced only?

Returning to the increased influx of women, in statewide races, it needs to be said that there are some observers that are far less sanguine than those cheering from the sidelines. Again, in another focus, from the Times, “As much as I love the story of all these new women who have emerged — and there will be some who make it — it’s a harder road,” said Debbie Walsh, of the Center for American Women and Politics. “And because they’re not as experienced, they also made choices to run in places that I think some of them, if they were seasoned political women, would say, ‘That’s not an opportunity for me.’”

GOP seats also offer some strong contenders, “Some of the best chances for gains may be among Republicans. The most promising candidate coming out of [the] primaries was Carol Miller, running for an open House seat in West Virginia that leans Republican. In the Senate, several of the incumbent women are Democrats in toss up races; but if Republicans can hold the seat being vacated by Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn, now a House member, would occupy it.”

 Rachel Amdur, Vice-Chairwoman of the Haverford Democratic Committee, says women are the drivers of their party, so marrying intent with experience seems to be the best that can be seen.

There are also blowbacks, for incumbent women, as when Cassidy recently accused powerful Illinois Speaker of the House Michael Madigan of blocking her from a part-time job at the Cook County Sheriff’s office of Thomas Dart, due to her call for an impartial investigation into charges of sexual misconduct towards women in his office, a charge that he subsequently denied.

In her final statement, she said, in part, “Speaker Madigan reversed course from his earlier denials over the concerns I raised about retaliation and requested an investigation by the Legislative Inspector General. While I applaud his openness to an inquiry, I continue to have very real concerns about the venue he’s selected. The Office of Legislative Inspector General made headlines late last year after it was revealed that the position of LIG had remained vacant for 3 years, a situation many in the Capitol were completely unaware of, despite the early discussions about problems with harassment in our Capitol.”

While the blueprint has not been written for women in the statehouse, it seems safe to say that for them  there are specific issues that present themselves, for urgency, and not to their male counterparts.

On the overall issue of the Democrats doing a reversal is also a powerful and controversial step with many taking a bolder step with statements that, while likely to come to fruition, are by some standards, staking a claim, almost pushing out the cautious optimism of Clinton, which she defended last year, when she said that healthcare, a key plank in the platform of women candidates, that it was “too vague, expensive and politically naive, all points that the Economist noted, at the end of last year, that aligning with the progressives may prove to be “ hard sell at the ballot box,” and “the goal of party politics is not mobilisation; it is victory.”

Moving to that goal might just take a multi-pronged approach, and the political troika that we’ve outlined, could lead to victory for the Democrats.

Updated June 28, 2018 ar 5:33 CSDT

April Jobs Report still shows low wages for Americans

The April Jobs Report is beginning to seem like a repeating pattern of low wages, and lowered unemployment rate --- not enough to cause concern on the banner rate, or what we refer to as the marquee rate - and Friday’s 3.9 percent unemployment rate, at first blush made many, especially the Trump Administration - feel elated. But a closer look, revealed the same problem: low wages, or in this case a slight bump of 2.6 percent, or 4 cents, just enough to take a pass on the Mars bar at the supermarket checkout line, and not enough to meet the higher cost of living in the United States.

This conundrum has many economists, observers and Wall Street scratching their heads at what is obviously a reversal of economic standards, where wages, in this cycle should be going up.

The modest uptake can be taken several ways say some: peak age workers still in the job market, and depressing wages, that might otherwise increase with younger workers; difficulty in getting quality workers with requisite skills; the decrease of unions and their influences; and a tight labor market.

“There are more than 6 million unfilled job openings in the United States, near a record. The number of people quitting jobs is also historically high, as workers leave for better [paying] jobs,” noted CNN in their coverage.

Others are attributing good news to the continued increase in jobs being added to the economy, regardless of whether wages are low, high, or in the middle. An example of this is Catherine Barrera, chief economist of the online job site Zip recruiter, who says, “We’ve continued to add jobs every month for so long, and the unemployment rate have reached is amazing,” reported The New York TImes.

The economy added 164,000 jobs (190,000 were expected) and shoved the unemployment rate below 4 percent for the first time in 17 years.

Unchanged is the timetable for rate increases by The Federal Reserve, on track for three more increases this year. But, the worry continues, as observers foretell a drop in consumer spending, a leading economic driver of the United States economy, and needed to counteract higher prices, especially those now seen at the gas pumps.

The Fed did have to look at inflation, which as Market Watch reported, “After its policy meeting this week, the Fed downplayed inflation concerns, even though its favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure price index, rose to a 12-month rate of 2%, hitting the Fed’s target for the first time in a year.”

“They did as little as they had to do to acknowledge that inflation had moved up,” and signaled they would allow inflation to temporary overshoot its 2% target, Omair Sharif,  senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale said.

The Fed  may have to revise its own long held definition of what full employment looks like, if this trend continues.

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Back to wages: contrasted with the early 1990s and 2000s, the last time that the picture looked like this, wages rose by 4 percent for rank-and-file workers.  But, Barrera also told the Times, employers got stuck in their ways, and since they did well, with  less help during the Great Recession, they are reluctant to hire, if they can get by with current staffing levels.

Looking in the opposite direction are those that mostly see the glass half full:  "Getting down to 3.9 is quite a marker," said Robert Frick, chief economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, who also noted in his interview, that he believes that an increase in wages, and benefits, will lead to another sharp decrease in the unemployment rate.

He also said, in another interview that “We need wage increases well above 3 percent for consumer spending to accelerate at a healthy pace,” supporting economist fears.

One group not seeing great gains are blacks, whose unemployment rate of 6.6 percent, while the lowest on record, since 1972, is dismal when compared to whites at 3.6 percent. If this seems so, and experts say, that the trend will continue, and that differences in education and degrees don’t seem to matter; then sadly, even a generation later, after the Civil Rights legislation of the mid 1960s, their economic future looks bleak.

The usual areas made the following increases: Health care added 24,000 jobs in April and 305,000 jobs over the year, employment in mining increased by 8,000 last month, and mining employment has risen by 86,000 since a low in October 2016, and construction added 17,000 jobs last month,” reported The Hill.

Martha Gimbel, director of economic research at Indeed, said that the U-6 rate — the broadest measure of unemployment — dropped to 7.8 percent in April, the best showing since July 2001,” she told the Hill, and also issued a cautionary note, “However, the percent of the labor force that is working part-time for economic reasons has been hovering around 3.1 percent for a few months, which may mean that recovery in this measure is stalling out.”
 

We have seen that in previous months, and seeing it again, tells us that while this may be the byproduct of an end-stage recovery, as Gimble puts it, it’s still, for this report, a mixed bag, and furthermore, that life, beyond the numbers, continues to show a deep cause for economic concern, if not worry.

Striking U.S. teachers and holes in education funding

For decades, those that wanted the American Dream were told to get an education, to help make it come true. And, generations of immigrants did just that - at church sponsored schools, night school -- to use an old school term - and high schools, where with foreign accents, and often shabby clothes, leftover from the Old World, they did the three R’s, and later on, some even became CEOs of major companies; many from public schools, but now with the recent teacher walkouts and strikes, an essential chunk of that dream has become a nightmare.

For much of the South, and parts of the Midwest, teachers are paid abysmally low amounts, and often well below the national average of $59,660, and with frustration gnawing away at them, early last month, thousands of them marched “on state capitals in Oklahoma and Kentucky, shuttering schools and demanding that Republican-controlled legislatures vote to increase their pay,” reported the Hill.

“And those very states are at the center of the current wave of protests. Arizona, Oklahoma and West Virginia pay their teachers far less than the national average. All three states are in the seven states where average teacher salaries are lowest, according to the National Education Association, the nation’s other major teachers union.”

Adding to the mix was “a  nine-day strike in West Virginia, where teachers secured a 5 percent pay raise, and protests in Arizona last week, where teachers wore red and gathered at the state capital to demand a much larger 20 percent pay increase,” The Hill also noted..

While the Oklahoma teachers strike and walkout ended, with a stalemate, and the realization that the Republican legislature was not going  to budge one more inch, in funding, they went back to work. And, some felt that while they did not get all that they wanted the resulting publicity of their plight meant that the next battle would be easier.

Taking a look in the rearview mirror, “Teachers in Oklahoma received a pay raise when the Republican governor signed legislation “hiking their salary as much as $6,100 a year, but they sought, a “bigger across-the-board $10,000 raise. Average teacher salaries in Oklahoma were lower than all but one other state before the recent hike.”

Meanwhile protests in Kentucky revolved around a pension reform bill replacing “the existing defined benefit pension plans with a plan that couples 401(k)-type savings accounts with traditional pension benefits.”

The past becomes present in our post recession environment where state budgets, already squeezed tight, and pay raises are thought impossible, but now these, and other demands are being made after years of frustration. And, while salaries loom large for some teachers, in certain geographic areas, there are those in some school districts, where teachers spend approximately $656 each year from their own pockets on books, paper, pens, and even meals, to sustain the gaping hole in the funding of public education..

Looking again at salaries, “A 2016 study by the center-left Economic Policy Institute (EPI) found teachers make 17 percent less than workers in other industries with similar education and skill levels, a gap that has grown in the post-recession years.”

In an interview with the Economic Policy Institute, Larry Mishel, a distinguished fellow at EP said, “Teachers in particular have seen their wages and benefits, their compensation in total, lag behind that of other workers for more than 20 years,”and furthermore, “In this recovery, teachers have not fared very well. [Legislatures] been cutting back on school budgets and letting teacher pay lag and attacking teacher pensions, all while they manage to give out tax breaks for corporations.”

That’s a dig at the recent Tax Plan by President Trump, but it also speaks volumes for a less than charitable view that many Americans feel towards teachers, and their profession.

In an earlier era some said, “those than can, do, and those that can’t, teach,” but while that is less true than before, the teaching profession has earned far less respect than it deserves, which is ironic, as no one argues the benefit of a solid education to ensure an economically prosperous community.

Taking a partisan turn to these recent events “give Democrats hope that union energy will spark high voter turnout in this year’s midterm elections. Coupled with antipathy toward Trump among energized voters, especially women and millennials, those voters could deliver Democratic victories in states where the party has struggled in recent years,” added the Hill.

Along with Kentucky, all four states voted for Trump in 2016.

As we have seen in other races, in a profession dominated by women, many have sought to run for elected office to break the pattern, and this alone, coupled with the successors to the #MeToo movement make this a threat to the GOP losing seats in the House, as well as the Senate; and, there are some who are saying that there might be an eight to ten point lead by the Dems; the so called “blue wave”, expected to hit this November.

While respect for the profession was a strong factor in the 2012 Chicago teachers strike, the central problem was, as it is for many areas across the country, is underfunded pensions that have nibbled, and gnawed away at money for public education.

PBS in its Newshour program commented that: “Teachers usually say a persistent funding shortage, which has cost public schools $6.6 billion since 2009, led them to walk off the job and close down schools last week. Among the biggest reasons for lagging pay is one of the least understood: The rising cost of state pensions.”

“Public pension systems nationwide face record levels of debt, totaling $1.4 trillion, according to a recent Pew Charitable Trusts study. That puts downward pressure on wages and benefit checks as governments struggle to close the funding gap. It suggests the recent outcry over teacher pay could spread in coming years, whether pension costs are widely acknowledged as a driving factor or not,” they emphasized.

Some  observers state that this is not the end, and “I think we’re headed for a big crisis across the country,” said Olivia Mitchell, executive director of the Pension Research Council at the University of Pennsylvania. “Pensions are now becoming the tail that wags the government dog, if you will.”

Colorado, a mostly Democratic state, the outlier from the Republican dominated states, is another example, and “school district payments to the public pension fund have roughly doubled since 2006, from about 10 percent of payroll to 20 percent. That has squeezed personnel budgets when the state also was cutting funding during the economic downturn,” added PBS.

For the most part, those recession area cuts were not restored, in the Republican led states, adding to the existing salary deficit, and coupled with the Trump tax reform bill which increased corporate profits, the die was cast, for a showdown.

For Denver, the “average teacher salaries have grown 21 percent, from $44,439 to $53,768, according to salary data from the National Education Association. But inflation in the greater Denver area has outpaced it, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving teachers with an 8 percentage point drop in buying power.”

Going even further, “Additional contributions are not padding the benefits of current teachers. The bulk of the money that school districts spend on the Public Employees’ Retirement Association is paying off $32 billion in benefits previously promised to public-sector retirees but never properly funded.”

“Cutting future benefits worries teachers. Public sector workers in Colorado don’t receive Social Security, so proposed cuts to cost-of-living raises will leave them more vulnerable to inflation over time.”

The good news, of sort, came on Thursday with the end of the possible strike, and definite school closures, in Arizona, when Gov. Doug Ducey signed into law a $644 million bump to increase teacher salaries, who were among the lowest paid in the nation.

He also cleverly made the announcement taking the momentum out of Arizona Education United, who represented the teachers; with the result that many teachers literally folded their tents on the lawn of the state capitol, where they had camped out.

The victory was only a partial one, and many did not consider the raise enough, it was only part of the package that the dissenting educators wanted which, first and foremost, would have been money to support the pre-recession funding levels of $1 billion; a pay raise for senior teachers; and an end to new tax cuts, until per pupil funding hit the national mean for per pupil spending; but perhaps most importantly, an increase in the ratio of counselors and social workers, to counteract the mental health and struggles of troubled students, especially in the aftermath of the Parkland school shootings.

Updated June 30, 2018 at 2: 53 p.m. (CSDT)