Women and voting rights might change tone of midterms

Last week’s gubernatorial nominee victory for Stacey Abrams in Deep Red Georgia showed the nation that the upcoming midterm elections are going to have, not only a different gender, but a different complexion, than previously seen in statewide races across the nation.

Born in no small part from the #MeToo movement as famed male celebrities were toppled from their kingdoms, the influx of women, especially black women, into the mix may give some unique opportunities for Democrats as they attempt to retake the House. And, that, in and of itself, has an undercurrent of, and this is not too strong of a word, disgust for the chameleon statements, and seemingly bizarre behavior of Donald Trump, by many of even his staunchest supporters.

Joined to that effort is a growing change in voter rights, especially in New York, to give former inmates the right to vote; and with many of the formerly incarcerated leaning blue, the race to puncture the GOP balloon is evident..

Meanwhile, in Chicago, and other urban areas, there is now a  push to allow 16 year olds, the right to vote, even if  in only restricted areas, such as education; another robust effort to dent the majority political party; and in an area where state level politicians are often made.

Not to be forgotten is the sad record, that since 2013 there have been 312 incidents of gunfire in American schools, and much of this effort to lower the voter age can be attributed to the youth protests developed after the Parkland school shootings.

There has also been a quiet storm in the South to get out the black vote in midterm elections that traditionally many frequently sit out, dismissing them as an “off year” election, and not worth the time to vote. Ultimately, in many areas, this inaction has ceded power to the GOP.

A successful push for the Democrats has been the power of black women voters, widely acknowledged in Alabama with the recent victory of Doug Jones over Roy Moore; and, this was not a new phenomena, but what has blossomed is a demand to to see, as a result, someone of their own as candidates.. Ergo Abrams.

A planned effort

Vox.com noted, in its report that “It was the result of months of effort by an increasingly influential network of political groups and outreach initiatives, many of them helmed by black women, that are eager to build political power and influence in black communities.

“Black women are ‘sick and tired’ of being thanked by progressives for being their most loyal voting base. Black women are demanding that the progressive movement show us they respect our leadership and the power of our vote, by investing more in Black women running for office; and Black women-led organizing and institutions,” Melanie Campbell, president and CEO of the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation and the Black Women’s Roundtable, said in a statement hours before polls closed.”

Simply put, “As we look at stopping the rollbacks of the past 50 years of progress that are happening at the state, local, and federal level, we need more progressive voices in legislative bodies and in executive chambers,” Kimberly Peeler-Allen, the co-founder of Higher Heights for America, a national organization that works to get more black women involved in politics, told P.R. Lockhart, in January. “The best way to do that is to elect black women.”

Many attributed gender bias, among other factors, to the demise of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, in spite of the the Russian obstruction, and interference,  And, while some have said it might be better to pull back on another female candidate, it seems, for southern black women, the time to push the needle in their direction has come.

Collectively, there was $1.2 million spent to help Abrams.

Youth votes

Taking a look at what was once the future electorate, a movement has taken hold to lower the voting age to 16, in the Land of Lincoln.

“Vote16 Illinois is a student-led organization established in August 2016 with more than 100 student members. Its goal is to lower the voting age from 18 to 16 in Illinois.

"So many kids are rising up, and they’re demanding change," said Daviana Soberanis, a junior at Northside College Prep who is a field organizing chair and board member of Vote16 Illinois. "Kids especially want to have their voices heard,” she told The Chicago Reader, an alternative newspaper, serving metropolitan Chicago.

The Reader also noted that “Takoma Park, Maryland, was the first U.S. city to lower the voting age to 16, in 2013. During the first election it held when 16-year-olds were allowed to cast ballots, 17 percent of eligible minors voted. That was double the percentage of voters 18 and older that turned out, although the election had no contested races or referendums.”

Illinois State Rep. Kelly M. Cassidy, has given her support to the movement, and her office made an important point: "We trust kids at 16 alone behind the wheel of a 2,000-pound vehicle on the road," said John Pearl, Cassidy's chief of staff. "I mean, at some point you have to realize that 18 is extremely arbitrary. . . . It's not like when you turn 18 you automatically have a serious increase in understanding of political knowledge."

A change in the state constitution would be needed, to effect the change, but “The constitution also requires that voting laws be consistent across the state. Vote16 Illinois is working with lawmakers to introduce legislation next year to modify the constitution to allow municipalities with more than 25,000 people—making them governed by home rule—to lower the voting age.”

Surprisingly, looking at a narrow time frame, than many would think possible, Cassidy and Pearl, see five years as a goal, and not a decades long effort.

Voting rights restored, in some cases, for felons

Allowing those that have been previously incarcerated is another sea change affecting the midterms, and this time from those who normally would be denied the right to vote, or would they?

The New York Times recently examined this area of opportunity for the Democrats, which few have thought, about and looked at this scenario: ”If a person is convicted of first-degree murder in the state of Vermont, he or she will retain the right to vote — even while incarcerated. But a person who commits perjury in Mississippi could be permanently barred from casting a ballot there.”

“It is up to states — not the federal government — to say whether convicted felons can vote, and which ones, and when. So the rules for convicted criminals can change, sometimes drastically, from one state to the next..

Methodology varies in determining exact numbers, but it’s seems safe to say,  in 2010, 8 percent of Americans were convicted felons in 2010; with an estimated 6.1 million barred from voting, “because of felony disenfranchisement laws,” says Sarah K.S. Shannon, an assistant sociology professor at the University of Georgia.

“In terms of inequality, clearly, felony disenfranchisement laws have racially disproportionate effects. Our estimates lay that bare,” Dr. Shannon said. “In addition, because these laws can vary so widely by state, the effects are also spatially disparate, impacting some states’ electorates more than others.”

Added to the mix, or some would say, confusion, there are certain states that some felons are barred for life -- such as Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee -- absent a pardon, then still others, again pending state laws, they could be rescinded.

The Times also noted two hugely significant acts, one present, and one past: “Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York, a Democrat, said this past week that he intended to use an executive order to restore voting rights to felons who are on parole, essentially circumventing legislation that allowed convicted felons to vote only once they were on probation or had completed parole.

Terry McAuliffe, the former governor of Virginia, did something similar in 2016 when he issued an executive order to restore voting rights for convicted felons who had served their full sentences. The Virginia Supreme Court struck that down, so Mr. McAuliffe instead began restoring voting eligibility for felons on an individual basis. The current governor, Ralph Northam, a Democrat like his predecessor, is continuing those efforts.”

In another effort for voting rights, state Rep. Juliana Stratton, who is also J.B. Pritzker's lieutenant governor running mate successfully lobbied for the voting right of pretrial detainees, those who have been arrested and jailed, bit awaiting trial, and technically not guilty of a crime, noted the Reader. 

With contention on the GOP side of the aisle the argument was there was little concern for those victimized, by crime until Stratton pointed out that the detainees did not have enough money for bond. Paying bond, and leaving jail allows them to vote.

In the end, Stratton won, and the bill - IL HB 4469, was sent to Gov. Rauner for his signature, in late June.  In response, the ACLU issued the following statement: 

"The full Illinois Senate approved House Bill 4469 on a vote of 38-17. The bill expands the opportunity to vote for person being detained pre-trial and provide those leaving prisons in Illinois with a voter registration application and a “know your rights guide” tailored to people with records."

Women wanted - experienced only?

Returning to the increased influx of women, in statewide races, it needs to be said that there are some observers that are far less sanguine than those cheering from the sidelines. Again, in another focus, from the Times, “As much as I love the story of all these new women who have emerged — and there will be some who make it — it’s a harder road,” said Debbie Walsh, of the Center for American Women and Politics. “And because they’re not as experienced, they also made choices to run in places that I think some of them, if they were seasoned political women, would say, ‘That’s not an opportunity for me.’”

GOP seats also offer some strong contenders, “Some of the best chances for gains may be among Republicans. The most promising candidate coming out of [the] primaries was Carol Miller, running for an open House seat in West Virginia that leans Republican. In the Senate, several of the incumbent women are Democrats in toss up races; but if Republicans can hold the seat being vacated by Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn, now a House member, would occupy it.”

 Rachel Amdur, Vice-Chairwoman of the Haverford Democratic Committee, says women are the drivers of their party, so marrying intent with experience seems to be the best that can be seen.

There are also blowbacks, for incumbent women, as when Cassidy recently accused powerful Illinois Speaker of the House Michael Madigan of blocking her from a part-time job at the Cook County Sheriff’s office of Thomas Dart, due to her call for an impartial investigation into charges of sexual misconduct towards women in his office, a charge that he subsequently denied.

In her final statement, she said, in part, “Speaker Madigan reversed course from his earlier denials over the concerns I raised about retaliation and requested an investigation by the Legislative Inspector General. While I applaud his openness to an inquiry, I continue to have very real concerns about the venue he’s selected. The Office of Legislative Inspector General made headlines late last year after it was revealed that the position of LIG had remained vacant for 3 years, a situation many in the Capitol were completely unaware of, despite the early discussions about problems with harassment in our Capitol.”

While the blueprint has not been written for women in the statehouse, it seems safe to say that for them  there are specific issues that present themselves, for urgency, and not to their male counterparts.

On the overall issue of the Democrats doing a reversal is also a powerful and controversial step with many taking a bolder step with statements that, while likely to come to fruition, are by some standards, staking a claim, almost pushing out the cautious optimism of Clinton, which she defended last year, when she said that healthcare, a key plank in the platform of women candidates, that it was “too vague, expensive and politically naive, all points that the Economist noted, at the end of last year, that aligning with the progressives may prove to be “ hard sell at the ballot box,” and “the goal of party politics is not mobilisation; it is victory.”

Moving to that goal might just take a multi-pronged approach, and the political troika that we’ve outlined, could lead to victory for the Democrats.

Updated June 28, 2018 ar 5:33 CSDT