Centrists and women solidify California primary for Dems

There were many observers, and many more nervous souls watching the California primary, on Tuesday, as the pundits all vied to see it as an indicator for the Democrats to join the predicted rise in taking a majority in the House of Representatives this fall, in the November midterm elections.

The Dems did very well, handily scoring a success in key areas, but the Republicans did too, hanging onto key seats that might have gone blue ---- and for both parties there were indicators that California might be able to provide a template, of sorts, for the midterms. 

This was all set against the ghosts of the 2016 presidential election which was used as a scorecard, by the Dems to see if those districts, governed by the GOP, but voting in the majority, for Hillary Clinton, could be theirs.

Politics in the United States is a numbers game and California was no different, even if the game often resembled more of a Bingo card, than a chessboard.

One of the reasons for the nail biting was the structure of the primary --- not a winner takes all, but the two candidates that get the most votes, facing off each other, which could lead to decimation, or fighting within the family, in what one media pundit called the “cyclical migraine for voters and candidates alike”

The latter did happen with veteran Dianne Feinstein, against a relative newcomer in the Senate race, sending some shivers, but Feinstein easily batted him away with some fast shuffling on the issues, thus offering a rebranding at the same time.

As the erstwhile media outlet, The Hill, noted, “Democrats appear to have secured at least a second-place finish in every race they targeted. With plenty of votes left to count, Democrats felt confident about their chances of claiming a spot in the November runoff in districts held by Reps. Ed Royce (R) and Darrell Issa (R), who are retiring, and Reps. Mimi Walters (R) and Dana Rohrabacher (R), who are seeking another term.”

“Two Republican women, former Assemblywoman Young Kim and state tax board member Diane Harkey”, received the most votes in their bids to replace the retiring Royce and Issa, respectively. Both races will be challenging for the GOP.”

Taking a look back into that rear window from 2016, “Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won all four of those districts in 2016, along with districts held by Reps. Steve Knight (R), David Valadao (R) and Jeff Denham.”

Feinstein is set to face “fellow Democrat, former state Senate President Kevin de León, in November, though plenty of votes are left to be counted. But in the race for governor, businessman John Cox (R) secured a spot in November's general election against Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D),” a party favorite, and former mayor of San Francisco, and whose matinee idol  looks, have not been a detriment.

As they reported, “Cox is not going to win in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by an almost two-to-one margin. But the fact that there is a Republican on the ballot in the first place is enough to give Republican voters a reason to show up, avoiding a turnout collapse that could have been a catastrophe for every Republican farther down the ballot.
 
"You have to have a Republican talking about the issues," House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) told The Hill this weekend. "If you have nobody making the policy arguments, turnout would collapse. Now we've got a whole different conversation."

“With about 4 in 10 precincts reporting, Feinstein held a strong lead over de León, 44 percent to 11 percent, with unknown Republican James Bradley nipping at de León's heels. Feinstein led the vote in every county in California.
 
The former state Senate president built one of the more liberal records in recent memory during his time in Sacramento, giving him a foundation from which he hoped to spring a surprise on a veteran Democrat who was slow to adapt to the changing face of the Democratic Party.
 
But those hopes now prove a long shot, and Feinstein begins the race to November as a heavy favorite.
 
"I think [de León] thought people would think that Dianne's age and her more moderate positioning gave him a real opening. And the problem with that is, if you have watched her for as long as she's been in office, the one thing you should never underestimate is her political savvy and her stomach," said Gale Kaufman, a longtime Democratic strategist in Sacramento.

As The Economist noted last December, there has been a contest, of sort, by those still devoted to Bernie Sanders, and his radicalized agenda, versus the more moderate one of Hillary Clinton - there go those ghosts again -- that defined the term centrist, a watchword for both Clintons.

The New York Times observed that “Most candidates who won in the primaries appear close in their views to the average Democratic candidate in California, while fewer winners are farther to the left, according to a methodology developed by Adam Bonica, a professor of political science at Stanford University. In some districts, where Democrats feared getting shut out of the general election under California’s “top two” system of open primaries, voters may have put tactics over ideology in casting their ballots,” giving support, and gravitas, to the old school standard of Clinton.

To be more direct, “Democrats appear set to test whether conventionally liberal candidates — not left-wing activists — can make deep inroads in moderate areas that have historically supported Republicans. They are especially focused on seven Republican-held districts that Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential race.”

This is a huge element in the midterms as embracing the more radical ideology of Sanders over the establishment Clinton, was also was a contributing factor, in her defeat.

We’ve noted before the importance of women candidates, and black female candidates in the South, and it seems that, once again, “Democratic success in November increasingly lies on the shoulders of female candidates after another primary night in which women rolled to party nominations — in some cases by surprisingly large margins,” noted The Hill.
 
“High-profile Democratic women  . . . did well on the whole in California. Katie Porter, a law professor and protégé of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), is poised to move onto a runoff against Rep. Mimi Walters (R). And Katie Hill, an advocate for the homeless, is currently in position to take on Rep. Steve Knight (R-Calif.).

But Sara Jacobs, a nonprofit CEO endorsed by EMILY's List, appears unlikely to make the runoff in the race to replace retiring Rep. Darrell Issa (R).
 
Christina Reynolds, who heads communications for EMILY's List, the group that backs pro-abortion rights Democratic women, said women who are winning represent a diverse cross-section.
 
"It's a wide variety of women," Reynolds said Tuesday. "We have women who have served in state legislatures, have worked in policy and things like water rights. We have women who are coming from other offices and first-time candidates. They have proven that if you understand the district and do the work in the district, you can win pretty handily."
 
Ethnic and racial diversity also are apparent, as “ Deb Haaland would be the first Native American woman to serve in the House. Michelle Lujan Grisham would be the first female Hispanic Democrat to run a state."
 
Not to be outdone, “Republicans are also likely to add one prominent woman to their roster next year, after Rep. Kristi Noem won the GOP primary to replace outgoing South Dakota Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R). South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974 — and it has never elected a woman governor.”