Dems prep for Atlanta debate with some sense of hope

While the impeachment inquiry by the Democrats continues, unabated, there is still the not so insignificant matter of the 2020 presidential election whose fierce competition lies at the heart of the allegations of bribery by President Trump, from Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

With Wednesday's Democratic debate in Atlanta, let’s take a look at some of the leading contenders, and some surprising late entrants, and even some that are rumored to be.

First things first, the goalposts have changed. With all eyes, and bodies, focused on Iowa, which was the game changer for Barack Obama, it has also changed the game for South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete, as he prefers to be called, who has surged ahead with a 25 percent rating, in a leading poll, surprising many, but also raising important questions about his electability, and his continued struggle to earn support among Black Americans.

Meanwhile Elizabeth Warren is taking hits on her Medicare for All, plan, or to be more succinct her version of what she would like to see happen, and some grousing about what it will cost, and its feasibility for all.

The avuncular “Uncle Joe” Biden is still near the top, but has had good days and bad days as some of the Iowa polling shows him near the top, but not at the top. And, some are seeing him as carrying too much baggage: the roughshod treatment he gave Anita Hill, in the Clarence Thomas hearings; being an old white man, sounding geriatric in his confusion, mixing up Vermont with New Hampshire, a previous anti-abortion stance; and the tough on crime bills in the 90’s; but still holding the grip with Black voters.

Bernie Sanders, is also still in the running, but some polls have him in fourth place, and others are looking at the numbers, and wondering why he is not trending as well as expected.

Just for dash, we see the unexpected - but maybe not to all - entry of Deval Patrick, and rumors that Hillary Clinton might enter the fray.

If all of this seems to be an embarrassment of riches to some, for others, it’s just an embarrassment, and one person we spoke to said, “I used to be a good little Democrat, but all of these people and that woman with that health care bill, and taxing all of the billionaires seems crazy to me!”

Crazy might be just the beginning, with a year to go before voters hit the booths, and the all-important South Carolina primary.

While ahead in the polls with white college educated voters, Pete’s standing among black voters has remained bleak, with most reacting negatively to him as an openly gay man, (married to another openly gay man), with many black heterosexual men reacting negatively to even mention that fact.

He also faced a nasty patch in his native state, where he was confronted by a local black voter, who asked him if he expected black voters to rally for him, and said that it wasn’t going to happen based on his firing of a popular black police chief who was wearing a wire to record white officers making racist remarks, and the shooting of a black teenager, who was transported to the local ER in a police car, by an officer with a fierce reputation of being a racist.

Buttigieg replied that he didn’t want her vote, and she retorted that he wasn’t going to get it.

While it has seemed to be common knowledge that blacks turn out en masse for Democratic presidential candidates, this has only been recent history and as our friends at factcheck.org summarized, “But then President Lyndon B. Johnson pushed through the landmark Civil Rights Act of 1964 (outlawing segregation in public places) and his eventual Republican opponent, Sen. Barry Goldwater, opposed it. Johnson got 94 percent of the black vote that year, still a record for any presidential election.

The following year Johnson signed the 1965 Voting Rights Act. No Republican presidential candidate has gotten more than 15 percent of the black vote since. This means that any Democratic candidate needs the black vote, and the young man from Indiana, has done some somersaults to reverse the echo from the above encounter. 

In an attempt to win, and woo, black voters in South Carolina, Pete’s staff supplied them with copies of his Douglass plan (to remedy the racial disadvantages of American blacks), only to later have those messages of support, and the names of local black lawmakers, identified as supporting him as a presidential candidate, when in fact they were responding only to the plan itself.

Ryan Grim of The Intercept reported recently, that “To build support for the plan, Buttigieg and his staff lobbied prominent black South Carolinians to endorse it in order to strengthen the cause of racial justice. The Washington Post reported on Monday that “Buttigieg persuaded hundreds of prominent black South Carolinians to sign onto the plan even if they are not supporting Buttigieg himself.”

Taking a closer look at the stratagem, he also reported that, “The supporters were rolled out in a press release and open letter published in the HBCU Times — which focuses on “positive news related to Historically Black Colleges and Universities.” Listed at the top of the press release were three prominent supporters, Columbia City Councilwoman Tameika Devine; Rehoboth Baptist pastor and state Rep. Ivory Thigpen; and Johnnie Cordero, chair of the state party’s Black Caucus.

“There is one presidential candidate who has proven to have intentional policies designed to make a difference in the Black experience, and that’s Pete Buttigieg,” read the open letter released along with the plan. “We are over 400 South Carolinians, including business owners, pastors, community leaders, and students. Together, we endorse his Douglass Plan for Black America, the most comprehensive roadmap for tackling systemic racism offered by a 2020 presidential candidate.”

“The blowback came immediately. Devine, who has not endorsed a candidate yet in the presidential election, told The Intercept that she did not intend her support for the plan to be read as an endorsement for Buttigieg’s candidacy, and believes the campaign was “intentionally vague” about the way it was presented.”

As if that was bad enough, we have this from their report, “Thigpen, meanwhile, has endorsed Sen. Bernie Sanders for president, and was startled when he learned the campaign had not only attached his name to the plan, but also listed him as one of three prominent supporters atop the letter.”

Even that was not enough, as the Intercept continued, ““I never endorsed that plan. I don’t know how my name got on there. No, that’s not true: I know how my name got on there,” Cordero began, before explaining that Buttigieg had emailed him the plan and asked for feedback, which began a conversation with Buttigieg’s staff.”

This is a level of subterfuge that we’ve seen before but not by someone claiming Midwestern values of honesty.

As we previously noted Mayor Pete is running mostly on a personal narrative of being just another “regular” guy who just happens to be gay, and as the old saying goes, “it played well in Peoria,” but now decades after that humorous cliché was begun, it seems to play well in Iowa.

While whiteness alone is not a deal breaker for black voters, abusing the trust of elected lawmakers and leadership is.

Gayness is always a hotly debated topic in the black community, and is still not seen favorably, despite some younger member’s statements; and, there are still homophobic jokes, snickering and elbowing, with violence perpetuated against gay people in larger urban core cities, such as Chicago, Los Angeles and New York.

The AME church - a black denomination - does not support gay marriage, and there are still many religious people that use the old line of “Adam and Eve, not Adam and Steve.”

Many local observers, we have recently spoken to have said, “Imagine if Mayor Pete was Tyrone Anderson, of Englewood (a predominantly black neighborhood in Chicago), then you really would see the homophobia in the black community.”

While the primaries are important for the black vote, the general election results are the proof of the pudding and Buttigieg is not trending high with black voters, of age, and in February with the South Carolina primary and a ton of black voters, the majority of whom are over 45, his chances weaken, and his contortions, and false claims of support are not going to help him.

Biden has also faced criticism on his previous comments about working with white segregationists, and his stance on school busing by fellow candidate Kamala Harris, who, when they later debated, he said to her, “Take it easy on me kid.”

That type of remark, warm, cushy, and touching is very Biden, but it also seems to have raised some doubts in Iowa, and elsewhere about his toughness, or is it softness, and his previous label of being “electable”?

The prolific fact finders at Vox.com have also shown that he is at mission critical with some of the black electorate, “And while October polling shows that roughly 40 percent of African American respondents support Biden right now, his numbers with black voters under 45 are lower than that. The aforementioned Morning Consult poll, for example, finds that just 32 percent of black voters ages 35-44 support Biden. For the youngest bloc of voters, aged 18-29, this number falls to 29 percent.”

His campaign is also low on cash, with the last report of having less than $9 billion in the bank, and some concern about overspending on air travel, that has some donors up in arms.

While a fourth place showing is clearly not what his campaign wants, he was on a high in May, with some averaging 33 percent, then down to 20 percent in June, than cascading downwards to 11.

Last month he surged downward to 0.2 in one poll, while some staffers so inherently believe in him as Obama’s Veep, that he can bounce back, but speaking of the former president, he has not given the one endorsement that matters, noted New York Magazine in a recent focus article, also commenting that the campaign staff is looking for “old school endorsements.”

In particular, they also noted the inexperience of his staff, many of whom have not worked on a major campaign.

Of all of the myriad of comments and observations, from the piece, this one stood out the most about Biden, and his crew: “He freaks out over minor stuff on the trail that staffers don’t believe he should be concerning himself with and yet is unable to make strategic adjustments. But the staff concern themselves with unimportant matters, too, running what they think is a general-election campaign when they need to be running a primary. Inside the campaign, the Biden brain trust seems to exist more to comfort the candidate than to compel him, and strategy meetings inevitably devolve into meandering, ruminative roundtables that feel purposeless except to fill time in the day. Nobody will tell the candidate in plain terms what they think he needs to change. Not that Biden really listens anyway.”

If that continues, then the surge downward may continue.

Warren meanwhile has been spiked by Pete, and others, on the cost of the Medicare for All bill that she now, supports, although research has shown that she has bought into this latently, with some saying that this surge of support might be needed when the numbers are coming in, and she needs to get some from the Sanders camp.

Indeed, these assertions might be correct, considering that defanging Big Tech was more her forte, but as Clinton learned in 2016, the numbers are all that matters.

Nowhere do these numbers matter more than the specter of a 20.5 trillion tax package and draining the billionaire well, once again, for the end of private insurance; and, as we noted in the past, 60 percent of those American with private health plans like what they have.

Warren herself, before her campaign took a stronger look at the polls, supported the ACA and building support with needed changes, much as Nancy Pelosi and others have done.

Expect another lunge towards Warren on Wednesday, and maybe even a surprise to her challengers, especially Pete, as he closes in on her.

What remains to be seen is if Sanders will come to her rescue, or let her drown.

Presidential Elections can always have surprises, and one, now, is the entry of former Massachusetts governor, Deval Patrick, rumored to have the support of Barack Obama, but also a target for those who feel that his “corporatese” as the so-called Bernie Bros, have coined, carries the baggage to the establishment.

This is especially seen with his employment at Bain Capital, which did former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, as the “scourge” of capitalism.

The big bet is that he can do very well in the New Hampshire primary, and as The Hill reported, ““Is he a top-tier competitor in New Hampshire instantly? Absolutely,” longtime Massachusetts political operative Scott Ferson said.

“If there’s somebody from Massachusetts, going back to Paul Tsongas and Mike Dukakis, they usually win the New Hampshire primary,” he continued.

With no single candidate taking the lead, the field is open and Patrick might make the grade, even as Michael Bloomberg has coyly suggested he might enter. But, with all things being equal Sanders supporters and staff have their say.

“Sanders’s senior adviser and speechwriter, David Sirota, jabbed at both Patrick and Bloomberg in his “Bern Notice” newsletter this week, writing, “The potential last-minute candidacies of corporate titans are a direct response to the Bernie Surge,’ according to The Hill.

Sanders critics, and they are there, feel that he, along with Warren, may take the Democrats too far to the left, and there are still lingering echoes form 2016 that his timetable, those ‘Day One” scenarios are overly ambitious, (e.g. free public college education) not to mention costly, but that being said, he might be able, after Wednesday night, to reaffirm, himself, and voters.

“But Patrick also brings strengths after accumulating a moderate record during his time at the helm of Massachusetts, and he appears to see an opening in the fluid Democratic field, with a number of polls showing no clear front-runner has emerged,” the report added.

 Finally, we have Clinton again, making rumblings with her new book, coauthored with her daughter Chelsea, and taking a more outspoken lead, on issues, and while its widely acknowledged that she was “robbed” of the presidency by the machinations of Russian President Putin and his virtual henchmen, and the James Comey, “one more time on the emails”, is it, some wonder, time for her to serve as a mentor for female candidates, and not try one more time?

Interviewed for The Guardian was “Bob Shrum, a Democratic strategist who was an adviser to the Al Gore and John Kerry campaigns, was equally skeptical.”

“I don’t think she would do it and I don’t think she should,” he said. “It would be late and very divisive. I am dubious that she would win the nomination, so why would she do that to herself?”

October Jobs Report better, but with reservations

The U.S. economy got a surprise bump of 120,000 jobs which outpaced expectations of 90,000 reported the Labor Department, a figure that also came close to the monthly ADP report of private employers that showed 125,000, a none too frequent occurrence, but also one that got the usual kudos from the White House and some economists, who favor a more positive outlook, than others.

What did happen was a hit from the GM strike that dealt a body blow to a higher figure, but that most economists, and market observers, say will come back in November. And, while the year over year review may look spotty - there was a revised gain of 95,000 for August and September of 2019, giving cause for a solid, if not spectacular report for many.

There were some economists polled by Reuters, that predicted an even rosier report from the private market: “Economists. . .  had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 120,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 40,000 to 190,000.”

Also encouraging was the fall out from GM, that some thought would be 50,000 but came in at 42,000, giving some credence to the resilience of the American economy.

“August’s initial 168,000 estimate came all the way up to 219,000 while September’s jumped from 136,000 to 180,000,” giving that total revision of 95,000.

The banner unemployment rate was 3.6 percent, a 50 year low, and another report that shows discouraged job seekers, and those that are stuck in part-time jobs, came close to 7 percent.

“The U6 jobless rate stood at 7.5% in September, the lowest rate since 2001. Except for a brief stretch from 1998 to 2001, the broader unemployment rate seldom drops below 8%.,” said Market Watch.

Wages, which have been a moot point for several months rose to “0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain, also in line with estimates. The average work week was unchanged at 34.4 hours,” acknowledged CNBC.

“This report is yet another sign that the economy is still strong right now and adds to a list of indicators that are looking optimistic of late,” said Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group. “The vigor of this labor market, along with a more positive housing market and solid Q3 GDP, should offer some welcome reassurance.”

Federal Reserve Cut and weak wage growth

This seems to be supported by the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the third time this year, with a cumulative range of 0.75 percent, and that some economists are saying is insurance for a good economy, but also serves as a “just in case” tool to address decreased business inventory, trade tensions with China, job weakness, and continued nervousness over the Brexit deal being orchestrated by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Also from CNBC, Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst, who said, “The October jobs report is unambiguously positive for the US economic outlook,” and “Above-consensus hiring in October, together with upward revisions to prior months, is consistent with our view that job growth, while clearly slower in 2019 than in 2018, will maintain a pace of 130-150K per month. Wage growth remaining at 3.0% should further support incomes and consumption-led growth.”

“Hourly wage growth has been anemic for much of the recovery, and has stalled again recently. Average earnings growth picked up slightly in October, and was also revised upward for September, but growth has slowed over the past year,” noted The New York Times.

“Weak wage growth is a challenge not just for workers but also for the broader economy. The length of the average workweek has also fallen slightly, particularly in manufacturing. Without more pay and more hours, it will be hard for consumers to keep spending more money.”

As noted, in this space many times, wages at 3.0 percent may seem better than worse, but the figure is baffling for a tight labor market, and some are pushing this aside, since consumer demand is strong, and some see that relatively low wages may be besides the point.

One of them is Ben Herzon, an economist for Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit, a forecasting firm, who stated, to the Times, “As long as confidence remains pretty elevated, as long as job gains continue albeit at a slower pace, and as long as those job gains continue to deliver wage growth, consumption should continue to drive the economy.”

  

Getting ahead to go along

CNN Business reported that “Powell, and others, have argued central banks should get ahead of a downturn after seeing any signs of weakness to get more bang for their buck in such a low-interest rate environment.”

The chatter of a pending recession, may have been premature, and economists are seeing this consistent with October, which may in, and of itself, be premature.

“It helps reduce the concern that the slowdown was becoming more broad-based and recession risks were right around the corner,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist for Barclays, “I think most people have a slightly more positive view of the U.S. economy now than even two or three weeks ago.”

If this is Tuesday, it must be a good omen, say others, without reservation, and rounding up the group of cautious optimists is Julia Pollak, a labor economist for ZipRecruiter, an online job marketplace, who said, “It’s still respectable;. Slow and steady is not necessarily bad.”

“The question is always, ‘compared to what?’” said Oren Cass, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a right-leaning think tank. “We should certainly celebrate that the unemployment rate is low and that the expansion has gone on as long as it has.” At the same time, he said, “if you ask how does this look relative to 2006-2007 or 1999-2000, it just doesn’t look as good on almost any metric.”

The fight for workers continues unabated since the end of 2018, and companies are vying for workers and dismissing college degrees and certification in the hopes of finding, and retaining a solid workforce, yet this is also part of the wage conundrum.

Even as far back as a year ago, there was some optimism about increased wages: “How hot is the labor market? Hot enough for employers to pony up some more cash to get workers to come work for them,” wrote Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, in a note to clients,” last October.

“Hiring last year got a push from the 2017 tax cuts, so some slowdown was to be expected as the effects of the cuts wore off. The question is whether hiring stabilizes at a somewhat lower level or continues to fall. Friday’s report, though only a single data point, suggests stabilization is more likely.”

The devil is in the details, but layoff outlook improves

Manufacturing has weakened by 36,000 jobs, and the Institute for Supply Management, said, in part, “October was the third consecutive month of PMI® contraction, at a slower rate compared to September. Demand contracted, with the New Orders Index contracting marginally, the Customers’ Inventories Index moving into ‘about right’ territory and the Backlog of Orders Index contracting for the sixth straight month (and at a faster rate).”

As noted, consumer confidence is very strong yet it’s easy to see a scenario where employers begin to layoff, since even 3.0 wage growth can’t lead to runaway spending.

Supporting that view, is the ever pragmatic Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton, in Chicago, who said, “At some point in time, either the business sector has to come back or the consumer will falter.”

“We could accept data that shows weakness in manufacturing,” said Michelle Meyer, head of United States economics for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Where it becomes a lot more problematic is if that weakness is spreading. We were starting to see indications of that the last few months, but they’ve now been revised away. It’s painting a brighter picture of the service sector of the economy.”

“But the service sector has remained strong. Hotels and restaurants added more than 50,000 jobs in October, and even the struggling retail sector posted a second straight month of gains after months of steady losses. And revisions to earlier data erased hints that the slowdown was spreading.”

Layoffs have been a concern and leading the pack of optimists was Jeffrey Bartash of Market Watch who wrote, “Don’t read much into any increase in the unemployment rate. The pace of layoffs have clung near a 50-year low since the start of the year and have shown no sign of rising. Businesses aren’t hiring as many workers, but they’re not firing many, either.”

“Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers jumped to 50,275 in October, 20.97% higher than the 41,557 announced in September, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.” in their press statement.

“Last month’s total is 33.5% lower than the 75,644 cuts announced in the same month last year. October was the second consecutive month during which cuts were lower in 2019 than in the corresponding month one year earlier,” they added.

“For the most part, job cut announcements are holding steady as we enter the final quarter of the year. We’ve seen increases in certain industries, particularly those experiencing disruptions from new technologies, uncertainty from government regulation or issues with trade, or slumping from demand shifts,” said Andrew Challenger, Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Getting into the nitty gritty, “At the industry level, the biggest job creation came in food services and drinking establishments, which added 48,000. While those positions are generally associated with lower wages, they also can reflect consumer demand and the willingness to spend discretionary money. The industry has seen a surge in job creation as of late, with the past three months averaging 38,000 compared with 16,000 in the first seven months of this year.”

Many Americans, however, are wondering where is the party. Earlier this year Heather Long in The Washington Post posed a question that still resonates, stressing that this is “a two-tier recovery” with 60 percent of Americans benefiting and 40 percent with “paltry or volatile wage growth, rising expenses for housing, health care and education and increased levels of personal debt.”

For a worrisome President Trump, facing impeachment, and a bitter 2020 reelection, it bears noting that he inherited an economic recovery from President Obama, said Rick Newman in Yahoo.com, and there is still a slowdown, “In 2014, when employment growth peaked, the economy created 251,000 jobs per month, this year the average has been 172,000.”