Foreign policy the Biden way

Of all of the hard work facing the Biden Admiistation, none is as formidable as, the pandemic aside, as the arena of foreign relations whose path was wrecked by President Trump’s anti globalist and scattershot approach that hampered the work of career diplomats and their staffs, and the notable exit from the Paris Climate Accord, and the fragmentation of the Iran Nuclear Disarmament agreement that, while imperfect, held that country to a standard of near compliance; an achievement in and of itself.

Relations between old allies such as England and Germany, and even older with France, has been riddled with misunderstanding and rife with damaging rhetoric that has caused their leaders to question the reliability of the United States, still the wer, just short of China.

The near euphoria that was felt across the ocean was summed up neatly in a tweet to Biden on his election victory, by President Macron of France, “Welcome back!” 

Without being stated this feeling was the same for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, of the United Kingdom, and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, despite the fact that Johnson had expressed admiration for Trump; and with a well established penchant for hyperbolic praise, and estimation, this may prove just as true with his evaluation of the newly elected American president.

To establish what is even normal, tensions aside, with the rest of the world, will require the talents of an experienced mind, as well as a detailed resume, and someone with the skill of a rear admiral, and energy galore, as Biden’s secretary of state; and, the name of Susan Rice as the presumptive nominee would be an apt choice, but in the end Biden chose a former staffer and close associate, Antony Blinken, who began his tenure in higher office in the Clinton administration, and who later from 2009 to 2013 became Deputy Assistant to the President, and also his National Security Adviser when Biden was vice-president.

Antony Blinken

Putting that aside, for a moment, and taking a wider look at the last four years of withdrawal, and even name calling, the debacle, and this is not too strong of a word of American foreign policy is important to neglect, and especially as joint cooperation is needed to fight the pandemic.

Decades of experience

As president, Joe Biden brings not only nearly 50 years of experience as a lawmaker, but also two terms on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and as vice president under Barack Obama, represented him  in a number of key areas, one with the admittance of China to the World Trade Organization, and also dealing with the Balkan conflicts.

As France 24 noted, “Biden has said his foreign agenda would "place the United States back at the head of the table, in a position to work with its allies and partners to mobilise collective action on global threats". The operative word there may be "table"—Biden recognises there should be one. After four years of "America First", with the erratic Trump toppling proverbial roundtables with an iconoclastic flourish, Biden will be conspicuous about putting the pieces back together.”

While  a iot has been debated, over the past few decades, about the role of America in foreign relations, either as policeman, or partner, the path of history has shown the military might and the intervention, whether it was as the new colossus, as Winston Churchill put it, entering the Great War, or later in World War II, the hand of the president backed by creativity, with the Lend Lease of fighter airplanes to England, his power has solved, and in less than glorious ways, created clamor, as what was done with Vietnam.

Over the past decades, we have also seen that the increased partisanship has not only intensified, but also has diverged in how Americans view foreign relations, and policy, itself, with allegiances, and while not paramount to a presidential election it has shown, in this year’s election some startling differences.

Partisanship divide affects how Americans view foreign policy

Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, noted in a recent op ed piece, for the Chicago Tribune, that Democrats favor international approaches that include the US participating in international organizations (63%) the provision of humanitarian aid (59%) and favor the increased use of the United Nations (68%) and the World Trade Organization (53%).

By contrast, Republicans, nearly half, believed that the United states is “rich and powerful enough to go it alone, (48%), the imposition of sanctions on other countries (43%) and that the UN, World Health Organization, and WTO should be “less involved” 34%, 39% and 30%, respectively.

Bridging this divide will require some high wire maneuvers for the new administration and especially for Rice should she be confirmed as secretary of state.

Also taking prime place will be the  Biden team’s definitive focus: should it, or will it be part of the centrist approach taken by the prior Obama administration? If so, one thing remains the same: an ongoing globalist focus that capitalizes on the relationships that Biden has built over the past decades.

There is also what Matthew Vallieres, of the University of Toronto, sees as necessary, emotions, or rather the inclusion, rather than the exclusion of them, and he says, “No foreign policy maker should dismiss emotions, and no policy maker is ever above emotion.”

Despite a past reputation of being pragmatic, Biden has, has become less hawkish, over the years, and as “Brett McGurk, a former senior State Department official for the campaign against the Islamic State, said Mr. Biden had been an effective diplomat by practicing “strategic empathy,” to The New York TImes.

A different approach?

“It is an approach grounded in a belief that understanding another leader — “what they want and what they need,” in the words of James Rubin, a former Biden aide who later served as the State Department spokesman — is as important as understanding his or her nation,” they added.

He is not without his critics, and Sen. Bernie Sanders has previously criticized him for not being progressive enough, and some have insisted that, “his emphasis on the personal is not effective at all, that it covers for flawed judgment and a lack of principle. “It’s little wonder that he claims world leaders have told him they support his election — they want to get back to eating America’s lunch again,” said Tim Murtaugh, a Trump campaign spokesman. He pointed out that Mr. Biden had voted to authorize the Iraq war and said he favored “appeasing” Cuba.”

Some have also said that he carried the water for Obama and company, and we have this, also from the Times: “As a senator, he produced no landmark foreign-policy legislation or defining doctrines. As vice president, he was largely a facilitator and adviser to Mr. Obama, often overshadowed by the secretaries of state, Hillary Clinton and then John Kerry.”

This of course belies the fact that in his role as vice president, he was not to create policy, but to carry it out; and, it seems that this in no sense will change with Kamala Harris, but should be amplified by future collaboration with Blinken.

China, China, China

The greatest challenge, among many will be dealing with China, not only for its attempts to become a dominant economic power, but also a militant one, in the example of the independence of Hong Kong, and dealing with the slow erosion of its post colonial autonomy, but also with its “legalization” of taking American intellectual property, as a condition of doing business with them.

While State Department officials are not predicting a future without illusion, the intensity of future relations are certainly to be felt, with a redevelopment not only of policy, but approach and seeking cooperation and not confrontation.

That arena also contains mutually conflicting areas such as economic security, human rights, tariffs on Chinese imports along with the other elements of the Belt and Road Initiative, (connecting and expanding an infrastructure with aspirations to recreate, and connect a new Silk Road)t will require skill and also cooperation with Western Europe whose countries have also been picked off by China, in attempts to do business.

President Xi

Biden has said that “the most effective way to meet that challenge is to build a united front of friends . . to confront China’s abusive behavior,” and ““even as we seek to cooperate with Beijing on issues where our interests converge, such as climate change, nonproliferation, and global health security.”

“Such a “united front” is what Beijing fears most, said Willy Lam, professor of history and China studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, according to the Los Angeles TImes.

“America’s return to multilateralism is welcome as a stabilizing force and important player in global issues such as climate change, said Wang Yong, professor of international studies at Peking University.”

“But if some people in the U.S. use ideological standards to politicize these supposedly international organizations and make alliances against China because China’s ideology is different, then this is a big mistake,” he said. “This is what some people are worried about, “they added.

Getting things done

On the other hand, as The Nation wrote last April, “In what is perhaps the best-case scenario, two increasingly nationalistic superpowers with immense militaries and overextended economies might be content to maintain their own spheres of influence. But China wants to expand its sphere, and the United States is reluctant to give up either its Pacific presence or its global ambitions.”

The changes, or rather the Trumpian aggression has melted away, yet what remains is a playbook, or what some are calling a reset, for China, that might involve a smaller case scenario that involves cooperation.

Looking at this level of engagement and what lies ahead, might be one of 2019, where cooperation was not off the table, but had its adherents.

“Our policy should be cooperative partnership that engages China on every level as we seek to work with China to solve problems,” argues the US Naval War College’s Goldstein. “They are a status-quo power that we can work with on various fronts: North Korea, Myanmar, pandemics, Belt and Road, climate change.”

Updated Nov. 24, 2020

Biden faces an uphill mountain of work ahead

President Elect Joe Biden, despite the baseless accusations that his electoral victory was caused by a deep state collusion of the media, liberals and Antifa, has nevertheless won the election “fair and square”, in the words of Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, but also has seen the myriad of lawsuits brought by President Trump meltaway, or dismissed without merit, but, most importantly he has begun to attack an unenviable “todo” list of formidable nature, by harnessing 47 years of governmental experience, together with some of the best and the brightest of talent chosen across a broad spectrum.

 

First and foremost, of course, is the development of a task force to combat the pandemic of COVID 19, that has debilitated the US economy and devastated the financial lives of millions  of Americans across the nation, with many facing both starvation, and home loss.

Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, last month noted in the face of loss, "Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses," Powell said in a speech delivered to an economic conference. A too-slow recovery would also exacerbate existing inequalities, Powell said, which would be "tragic."

He also added that "The recovery will be stronger and move faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy continue to work side by side to provide support to the economy until it is clearly out of the woods."

Diane Swonk, chief economist at the Chicago office of Grant Thornton, noted in a recent tweet that “Bet is we get more fiscal stimulus AFTER election than pre-election, despite changes w[ith] infections in elected officials, their staffs, and beyond.”

Earlier she had also said that the “Fed is running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat” to save the economy from the ravages of the pandemic.

Bden’s plan is a full court press to confront the pandemic head on with an approach that will not minimize, or downplay it, and in coverage by The Los Angeles Times, they noted that, “Come Jan. 20, Biden is planning to take a starkly different approach backed by scientists and economists . . . by urging and sometimes even requiring mask wearing, testing and social distancing — backed by strong federal guidelines and policy — Biden expects that fewer people will get sick and U.S. growth will more quickly recover.”

“Increasing use of masks by as little as 15% could prevent the need for lockdowns and reduce associated losses by up to $1 trillion, or about 5% of the American economy, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said, citing research from Goldman Sachs.”

As is well known, Biden has been refused access to the presidential daily briefing and other information since President's Trump’s refusal to concede means that the General Service’s head Emily Murphy has refused to “ascertain” the election results and robbing him, and his transition team of much needed information.

On Sunday the president acknowledged that Biden has won, but fraudulently, thereby giving an extension to the refusals, in what is sure to be further justification for the transition denials.

The LA Times also noted that “One administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump is so focused on his future that “he could care less, or even less than before,” about the COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed more than 242,000 Americans.”

CNN has also reported that the Biden people are using backchannels to get information that they would normally receive through a peaceful and logical transfer of power.

“Faced with a lag in the transition process, Biden's team is working around the hurdles Trump has created to be prepared on day one, the sources say. The transition, which has already named a Covid-19 task force, has been making calls to governors and their staff, as well as the health community, to discuss both the response to the pandemic as well as plans to distribute a Covid-19 vaccine.”

“That includes meeting with officials in the Department of Health and Human Services about the pandemic response, or with the Trump administration's vaccine task force, Operation Warp Speed, as the government is preparing to distribute the first Covid-19 vaccine within weeks. Biden's team will take over the vaccine distribution when he takes office, and health experts say the two administrations must be on the same page for a seamless transition, that, if flawed, could impact hundreds of millions of people.”

Also on track is the ongoing controversy of closing schools, keeping them open, or a hybrid of in person and virtual learning; one that continues unabated and also suffers from unequal facilities and political affiliation, and economic status, an unhealthy brew that is designed to cause more than a little concern.

Biden’s five point plan released earlier this year, “stresses the former vice president’s message to safely reopen the economy, pointing out that the first step to give Americans confidence to sending their kids back to school is getting the virus under control by ramping up testing and protective protection equipment,” reported NBC News.

The plan gives equal weight to a partnership between local and federal officials, something that has not been seen, “and Biden also says that as president, he would empower local decision-making while still setting clear national safety guidelines for them to follow given that the “Trump administration’s chaotic and politicized response has left school districts to improvise a thousand hard decisions on their own.”

“Everyone wants our schools to reopen. The question is how to make it safe, how to make it stick. Forcing education students back into a classroom and areas where the infection  rate is going up or remaining very high is just plain dangerous,” Biden said.

He also proposes $58 billion from the HEROES act for general support in this key area, but also $30 billion to go directly to public schools to support intensive cleaning and PPE, among other forms of help.

Rounding out this selective list of hot button items, is another education related change, and that is the end of the Betsy DeVos efforts to reduce, or as some have said, to end public education, as it has existed in America; and a legacy of free education that carried many immigrant dreams as they sailed into Ellis Island.

First and foremost the yet unnamed education secretary will be one that has had actual teaching and administrative experience in the classroom, unlike DeVos who had none.

The Washington Post reported that He has promised hundreds of billions of dollars in new education spending, for preschool through college. He has proposed college debt forgiveness. And he wants to overturn a controversial regulation on sexual harassment and assault that universities and others strongly opposed.”

There is some cross sectionality in that Biden has closely aligned himself with teachers unions, and less so with those who favor a more centrist position, and with a wife who is an educator, some of the discussion of who, maybe met with a “why not” said an official on deep background.

Continuing with a woman of colour, should they be the best choice, Dr,. Janice Jackson of Chicago is on a list of recommendations from Democrats for Education Reform.

Of course, money is a priority and as the Post reported, “Biden has promised to triple spending for the $15 billion Title I program, which targets high-poverty schools. He has said he would double the number of psychologists, counselors, nurses and social workers in schools. He has promised new money for school infrastructure. And he has said he would dramatically increase federal spending for special education."

“He also wants to fund universal prekindergarten for all 3- and 4-year-old children; make community college debt-free; and double Pell grants to help low-income students pay for college, “ they added.

Biden has a ton of support from educators, including Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, and “Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, an influential conservative in education policy and a one-time presidential hopeful, congratulated Biden. Arne Duncan, President Barack Obama's first education secretary and a vocal critic of Trump and DeVos, said, "American just won,” said Education Week, on their blog.

Some changes can be made by executive order, about others like the controversial reversal of Obama era protections for victims of sexual assault on college campuses, entwined in stautes may take longer.

DeVos whose wealth, some educators note, have shielded her from the realities of public education has also made some public gaffes, one glairlgly, when she said that HBCUs, historically black colleges and universities, were created to give American Blacks a choice in higher education, when the exact opposite was the truth.

She was also denied access to the front door of a Washington, DC school, and has supported gun use by teachers, and in one humorous exchange during her confirmation hearings suggested they could be used to shoot bears from attacking children.

A new administration brings new priorities and new ways of handling issues, but perhaps at no time, such as this, will an incoming president face a mountain of problems, and passions, and all set against a backdrop of a mounting, and persistent, pandemic.

October Jobs Report shows gains offset by COVID-19

October may be the one bright light in what has been an intense political season,and one in which the economy has been the main plank in the reelection campaign of President Donald Trump, yet Friday’s report issued by the U.S. Labor Department shows some improvement, to the tune of 638,000 jobs, a slight increase from an expected 6000,000 predicted by economists, and a drop in the unemployment rate from 7.9 percent to 6.9 percent added to a level of optimism for some.

The good news is that more than half of the 22 million jobs lost since February, before the COVID pandemic hit, but that still leaves 11 million jobs unfilled, and a large increase of those that suffer long term unemployment, defined as 27 weeks, or longer, and that number hit at 3.6 million making the plea for Congressional help, a much needed action to keep the American economy on a forward trajectory.

“Millions of unemployed workers have had a harder time paying bills since an emergency federal program paying $600 a week in additional benefits expired at the end of July. Another set of federal jobless benefits will last only through the end of the year,” reported The New York Times.

While some will say the good news is proof of the attributes and work of Trump, the reality is that, “It’s better than expected, but we’re starting to see headwinds,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton in Chicago, said of the October report. “The drop in the unemployment rate is welcome news, but there are still over 11 million unemployed workers.”

The good news is that the private sector added 906,000 jobs, but the real star of the show is food and beverage where there was a gain of 192,000 jobs, but since the pandemic, the loss is at 3.5 million, from the 4.8 total employment in April.

That gain is mitigated by the oncoming cold weather and the loss of outside dining, but still hampered by the pandemic that has continued to eat away at gains, making the need for federal help all the more needed, and now that Joe Biden has defeated Trump, the gainsay of help will be seen, despite the effort of the GOP Senate majority.

Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, in a Friday analysis for The Hill said that, "In the absence of another comprehensive stimulus bill before 2021, many companies may find it increasingly hard to survive. We do not expect to see significant job gains in the coming months, as a result.”

With an increase in COVID cases in the South and the Midwest part of the nation,and “two straight days of more than 100,000 new cases and epidemiologists warning about the worst yet to come,”  challenges are now reappearing for what, for some, was a drift forward some level of activity, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called "particularly concerning" in a Thursday press conference, according to The Hill.

“It does seem likely that people who have maybe begun to engage in activities that they hadn't—flying, staying in a hotel, going to restaurants, going to bars and things like that — that they may pull back in a situation where suddenly cases are everywhere in your city, your state, your community,” Powell said.

“That could weigh on economic activity,”

Taken as a whole October seems to show improvement for some, say economists and academics, yet while “The unemployment rate dropped more than expected, and on the back of an increase in the labor force and no increase in permanent layoffs,” said Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at Glassdoor who said the report was a positive one. Still, he said, the pandemic remained a major concern as the virus continues largely uncontrolled.

Caution therefore seems to be the watchword, and that is seen, despite gains, and “Leisure and hospitality is still short 3.5 million jobs; retail is down by about 500,000 jobs. Health care and social assistance, which added 79,000 jobs, is down 950,000 from February. Manufacturing gained 38,000 jobs but remains 621,000 lower than February,” reported The Washington Post.

Of concern, noted “Kate Bahn, an economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, said she was concerned that the gains were modest in industries that could be vulnerable as the pandemic results in more layoffs and restrictions.

“These gains are really limited as the pandemic is surging and we’re heading into winter,” she said. “It’s better than expected, but there’s a lot of evidence that it’s still a limited recovery that is really uneven and has exacerbated a lot of inequality that existed before the crisis.”

The labor-force participation rate held a slight increase  to 61.7 percent, up by 0.3 percentage points — but well below pre-pandemic levels from February and  those stuck in part-time work ,while wanting full-time work, rose by 383,000, to 6.7 million.

Yahoo Finance, perhaps hit the nail on the head when they noted: “The October jobs report also continued to reflect a worrying trend seen in the past several months’ worth of data: Many individuals’ temporary furloughs or layoffs have become permanent. The number of so-called permanent job losers stayed about steady at 3.7 million in October, for a sum of 2.4 million above the level from February.”

“We’ve now seen tens of thousands of cuts in industries outside Entertainment and Retail, indicating the impact is spreading,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., who also added, “However, as case counts rise and more jurisdictions impose stricter enforcement, and stimulus money dries up with no coming legislation, uncertainty is likely guiding many company decisions on retaining workers.”

Biden turns the tide towards victory as Trump fades

 In the end it's a number game and despite the rallies, the debates and the speeches, winning the United States presidency is dependent on gaining 270 electoral college votes that translates into victory; and the contest between former Vice President Joe Biden and incumbent president, Donald Trump has boiled down to just that. And, it is Biden that is within striking distance of winning the top job. With 253 electoral votes and needing just six more,he is sure to win the presidency, but also without a victory in Florida or Ohio, and will make the controversial incumbent a one term president, whose unbridled tongue, as well as tweets, have changed the American presidency to suit his own irascible style, giving little and taking much from traditional relations.

Exuding presidential demeanor, Biden has urged caution in the count of the necessary voters to giver him that edge into the White House, and wins from Pennsylvania or Nevada are the predictors to do just that.

Politico reported that “Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon told reporters that the campaign felt good about its position in Nevada and was “looking for that moment in Pennsylvania and Georgia today where we see that ticker overtake Donald Trump. We think it's going to happen ... We're very optimistic and we don't we don't really care which state takes us over the top.”

Many American are looking forward to the day of departure, as some wags have politely labelled the end of the Administration, and to one that has faced, despite myriads of supporters, to one of havoc, where there was an endless exodus of staff, both high and low, including chiefs of staff, press secretaries and headline burning of children of illegal immigrants placed in detention, often in cages, and where hundreds of well intentioned, and innocent, visitors from certain middle eastern countries were detained and sent back to their home countries without fail.

What a Biden administration will look like depends largely on balancing the ideas of progressives, idealists and party loyalists as they charge headlong into the abyss, or morass of the Trump years, but first facing a burst of outrage from the president's family who, like son Eric “this is absolute fraud” have called the steady actions of counting the ballots for a final count an outrage and a travesty of justice, but the inexorable beat of loss is tainting what will inevitably be a victory of party.

It ain't all over for the shouting, as threatened lawsuits against the process that only awards the winners, and not the losers. Winning is all that counts in the end and the Biden campaign has won Michigan and Wisconsin, that were lost by Hillary Clinton in 2016, and by some small miracle of demographic change has turned Arizona from red to blue, in no small part to Trump's trashing of hero John McCain, but also a sense of decency towards the military, and an ethos that old school conservatives have long eschewed with financial conservatism and strong foreign policy. And, while many have said that their defeat was inevitable, it may mean a resurgence in a Biden administration, unless hamstrung by the young Turks of the GOP, who might want a resurgent tea party. 

That of course is the future.

Meanwhile the Democrats are smarting from a loss of seats they had hoped to flip in several key area, while the GOP faces a changed, and shamed, party that strategists say should claim its losses and reach out to racial minorities, and college educated suburbanites who, while not surging towards Biden, lost some key constituents that were turned off by Trumpian excess. 

Yet they kept some in office, namely Lindsay Graham, and others such as in Georgia, and Florida, which while a narrow victory was still a victory, where scare tactics of the spectre of socialism were used towards Cuban Americans, facing the memory of Castro. 

Others say that the message from Trump was directed towards their mostly youthful electorate, who were gullible to disinformation; but, still, turning Florida was never a strong hope by the Biden campaign.

While many people cannot define socialism or identify it, perhaps it's like Chief Justice Potter's earnest claim, decades ago, that while he could not define pornograpy, he knew it when he saw it.

Thee sights of looters following the George Floyd murderers, gave proof to the night that law and order were not there; and with the rocket's red glare came visions of Americans facing anarchy, despite that the looters were a noisy minority amidst mostly peaceful protestors. But, the damage was done, and Florida stayed red, and true to Trump.

Remarkable for the election, one of historic perspectives, was that over 92 million votes were cast by mail, due to the the fears of Covid as well as fear of violence at the polls, presaged by the kidnapping plot of the governors of Michigan and Virginia by armed militia centered in the former, which caused many states to have the national guard at the ready, for threats of observers, maybe armed, with the tacit approval of the president.

Significantly, a Biden Harris tour bus was nearly toppled io a Texas freeway by Trump supporters, and who he later called "patriots"

As stated, more than a week ago, Trump has threatened legal action, in addition to his son's pleas to stop counting, and this seems to many, an act of desperation.

"I want to emphasize that for their purposes, these lawsuits don't have to have merit," he added. "The purpose is not to bring bona fide claims before the court. It is to create an opportunity for them to message falsely about what's taking place in the electoral process,” said Bob Bauer, a Biden legal advisor, and former White House counsel.

Waiting in the wings is new Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, the president's human firewall to keep him in office. But, she may not be needed as Biden may have a solid gain of 270 electoral votes.