It was over when it was over: Afghanistan and the U.S.

There was a time in the not too distant past when two United States presidents faced the threat of communism from Southeast Asia: one young, and charismatic, had initially heeded the advice of his elder predecessor, who warned him not to get involved in Vietnam. He was followed by a veteran senator, who transitioned to the presidency upon the death of the younger, and eager to be seen as brave.

The two presidents, of course, are John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson; the former reluctant to get involved, on the advice of his predecessor, Dwight Eisenhower, but later prodded by military chieftains to at least provide advisors, until he was forced to answer later, by an anxious media, as to why a US military helicopter was shot down.

What type of “advising” was that, they asked.

Later, in November of 1963, when more “advisors” were sent to Vietnam, Kennedy asked his top aide, on the way to that fateful trip to Dallas, “find a way to get us out of Vietnam.”

Johnson conscious of his legacy, as well as history, was reluctant to pull troops out, inc case he was second guessed by that same history, and communism roiled across the ocean, but agonized, all the while, kept them in; and, ultimately in the face of demonstrations and chants of “Hey, hey LBJ, how many boys did you kill today?” outside the White House gates, influenced his decision not to run for a second term, ending what historians would have recognized as a brilliant presidency.

The recent exodus from Afghanistan by President Biden came to mind, as we surveyed the damage from the planned pullout, and as America and its leader, has been jeered at and poked, what also comes to mind is the age old discussion of what role the US should play on the world's stage; an idea shaped by its dominance in two World Wars.

When President George Bush brought US  troops to Afghanistan it was in response to Al Qaeda’s direct attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, that unforgettable day as dust and debris covered people and streets became Ground Zero, an attack that brought global sympathy. 

It also brought a 20 year old commitment to a land and culture that few understood, and most countries had abandoned, at any level of partnership, or colonialism, Russia as one example, and took the world’s superpower to a place far beyond its initial goals to one of nation building.

With billions of dollars, and thousands of troops, and tragic deaths on both sides the US soldiered on enduring some victories, and many losses, that gave more hope than actions, and the military reports often hid the central question of what was happening and for how long would we be there.

Biden, taking following the exit plan of former President Trump, became enveloped amidst a plethora of advice, some pessimistic, some optimistic, about the Afghan’s ability to defend itself.

It also became curiously aligned with the timeline of Vietnam, and reluctant to admit a sad reality of inability, the military, according to The New York Times, “believed they would continue to fight for a time after the Americans left.”

Based on that assumption, it “took two years for a collapse after the withdrawal of troops and financial support. Optimists believed the Afghan military, with American funding, could last nearly as long. Pessimists thought it would be shorter,” they added.

The former view became the dominant one, and the resulting chaos to try and get allies and embassy personnel out of the country was the end result, while the scene echoed those from Saigon where people held dangling leads to helicopters.

Optics in this case ruled the day, with images of hundreds of Afghans fleeing, on foot and by auto, hand luggage dangling from their arms, fearful that their lives would change for the worse under the Taliban, based on its previous record of intolerance, abuse, and violence, especially towards women and girls. 

Adding to the desperate images of Afghans clinging to the fuselage, and even on the wings,and in the wheels of American cargo transporters, the images are heartbreaking, but don’t tell the whole story.

Fear and fact are often opposite ends, and as many have noted the Taliban waged a well calculated takeover learning both from the lessons of the West and their own knowledge of the country and its culture, steadily taking small provincial capitals, “they simply melted into the population to begin planning what would be a 20 year insurgency,” in an earlier report from The New York Times.”

They also gave money to the underpaid, or not paid Afghans, “secured border crossings, and assuaged with cultural knowledge a “population that is so tired, and weary of conflict they agreed to flip and support the winning side so they could survive.”

While these optics have been devastating to America’s image and Biden, the fallout from American allies, including our oldest, and who claim a special relationship with us, was exemplified by former British Prime Minister Theresa May who labelled the actions of the United States, as “incomprehensible,” while also railing about her successor, Boris Johnson, at the absence of the British as a backup, but the latter seemed dubious at best, especially with the absence of NATO.

Michael McCaul, Republican congressman from Texas has said that Biden has “blood on his hands.” And, both the House and Senate have called for congressional investigations.

While the ratings for Biden who had hovered near 50 percent, will slip, and whose criticism will be relentless, especially from hardcore militarists from the GOP, is a given, no one who occupies the Oval Office runs for the presidency, for their health, but the 78 year old chief executive seems prepared to take it on the chin, and said on Friday according to The New York Times that he “promised to bring home any American still trapped in Afghanistan, calling the evacuation effort for Americans and vulnerable Afghans “one of the largest, most difficult airlifts in history.”

But he acknowledged that he did not know how many Americans were still in the country, or if they could ultimately be brought out safely.

“Let me be clear: Any American who wants to come home, we will get you home,” Mr. Biden said, before adding, “I cannot promise what the final outcome will be, or that it will be without the risk of loss.”

He also added, said the Times, and sought “to give a sense of how many people had been flown out of the country in the days since Afghanistan’s collapse, Mr. Biden said that some 18,000 people had been airlifted from the country since July. This week, he said, Afghans — including women leaders — and American journalists — including staff members of The Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal — had been safely removed from the country.

Mr. Biden said that he would commit to airlifting Afghans who had been helpful to the 20-year war effort, but said Americans were his first priority.”

July Jobs report is a blockbuster for US economy

 

In what has been termed a blockbuster, the US Department of Labor released its monthly jobs report for July and revealed that American employers had added 943,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, far exceeding the earlier ADP report of 330,00 from private employers, and while Labor and ADP use a different methodology, most observers, economists, and, of course, the White House, were ecstatic.

Many are saying that this is the post pandemic swing that they were waiting for,and it also serves to silence, in part, Biden Administration critics who have openly carped that the rising inflation was attributable to increased spending, and of course, those stimulus checks. 

Conversely while the report shows that the Biden policies are working, a little GOP carping goes a long way, for its base.

It also takes the heat off Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, to diminish stockpiling bonds and securities in its reserves, as the increased job activity creates less of a vacuum.

It should be noted that while the goods news was welcome, it was gathered as is standard, from data collected in the first two weeks of June, and does not show the effects of the Delta Variant, that has coursed through some parts of the country, creating havoc on local economies, as they grapple with prevention strategies.

Acknowledging this, President Biden said, “we will doubtless have ups and downs along the way as we continue to battle the Delta surge of Covid,”but added,  “What is indisputable now is the Biden plan is working, the Biden plan produces and results ,and the Biden plan is moving the country forward.”

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh, told The New York Times, “This is a great report, very solid in terms of job growth and the decline in the unemployment rate.”

Showing the way forward was the continued growth in leisure and hospitality, where one third of the gains were, (due to  increased vaccinations), as public consumption transferred from goods to be enjoyed at home, to services and activities outside the home; and, to prove the point restaurants and bars last month added 253,000 jobs, and as airline travel increased, hotels and resorts added 74,000, while entertainment and recreation added 53,000 jobs.

Coming as a surprise to some was the increase of 221,000 public school jobs that some see as a harbinger of the much hoped for September increase of office workers returning from remote work, at home, to school children doing the same.

The figures, “could be inflated by seasonal adjustments and the way COVID 19 upends hiring cycles,” reported The Hill, and school openings in the Fall could be affected by a number of issues, such as the presence, or absence, of mask mandates, as local leaders grapple whether to have staff and faculty fully vaccinated.

Heralding the good news also included the increase of employment of racial minorities, with Blacks seeing an increase to 9.2 percent from 8.2 in June.

Black workers, reported CNBC, “represent about 13% of the US labor force, but 21% of all workers in transportation and warehousing,[while] Hispanic workers are 17% of the labor force, but comprise 24% in the leisure and hospitality industry.”

It’s not hard to see how this translates to wages, and they increased “with average hourly earnings increased by 11 cents in July and 4 percent year over year,” added The Hill.

A closer look at wages shows a gross disparity,”when comparing the wages of white men to women across demographic categories. White women make 19% less, Black women nearly 40% less, Hispanic women 43% less, and Asian women make 7% less,” CNBC concluded from their research.

Economists have stressed that since people of color were overly affected by the economic disaster, brought by the pandmeic, any subsequent gains are proportional

Overall, the labor force participation rate was nearly the same at 0.8%, but there were some surprises, with manufacturing and construction showing modest increases, and still bearing the brunt of,”hidden goods process and a shortage of components like semiconductors,” surmised the Times.

In contrast the Institute for Supply Management showed accelerated growth both for June and July, 60.1 in June and 64.1 in July; and, which had shown some alleviation in earlier months and the growth supports Powell’s assertion that the bottlenecks in supply and demand would ease.

Just before Labor released its report, “Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM's manufacturing business survey committee, noted that "supply and demand dynamics appear to be moving closer to equilibrium for the first time in many months." Part of that could be because spending is rotating back to services from goods, added Reuters.

Manufacturing accounts for 11.9% of the US economy.

Overall the US has 9.2 new job openings with 9.5 million people still unemployed. And, in that vein there are still many employers desperate for employees, and even professional slots are still open, baffling the former.

Some, mainly GOP leaders, have stated that extended unemployment benefits are the fault, yet, as we have seen, in many areas, while not all service people are looking for a change; for some, those benefits provided  a  cushion for those looking for better wages, working conditions, or location.

Statistics are near nil for benefits as the culprit, for as Barrons recently noted, “70% of  people with benefits live in states that haven’t yet cut the additional payments.”

While July provided blockbuster numbers, all eyes seem to be on September for a real change in jobs and consumer behavior, but that remains an open question.