Trump conviction and future predictions

Thursday's conviction of former president Donald Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up an extramarital sexual encounter with adult film star Stormy Daniels has set off a firestorm of criticism, commentaries and predictions, nearly all predictive, but not especially reliable of future events.

Conjecture, in some minds, might be one tenth of the law but time will only tell what lies in store for Trump the presumed nominee for the Republican presidential contest is certainly now for the history books: the first time a former president has been criminally convicted of a crime, this one to pay hush money of $130,000 to the actress through his fixit man, Micahel Cohen, and disguised as attorney fees, but both the falsification of the records coupled with the attempt to influence the 2016 presidential election, illegal under New York State law, brought the 34 count indictment and conviction.

Faith in the often fraught American judicial system has won, say many observers, while those in the Trump camp cry foul politics instead of justice and some are calling it a witch hunt brought to bear on an innocent man. Politics may provide the backdrop, but it does not provide the fullest picture.

Trump himself said, “It’s a rigged trial, it was a rigged trial,” stating another falsehood of the many that has been captured by the national media. He added that Judge Juan Merchan was conflicted, “we had a conflicted judge, highly conflicted. There's never been a more conflicted judge.” 

In a further hyperbole he added that whole the judge, “looks like an angel, but he’s really the devil.”

No matter whose side one is on, the verdict does signal that many of the suspicions that many people had about Trump, his business dealings and his extramarital affairs have now been brought to light.

In the scheme of his other suits, both state and federal, this is merely an opening salvo, as Trump faces federal charges for the illegal confiscation of government papers when he left office, which prompted an FBI raid on his home in Florida, and attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, plus state charges in Georgia of election interference.

What may also follow are charges against underpaying employees, and contractors and also overinflating the value of individual properties to take a tax deduction. In short this is only the beginning.

The question of many minds is how will this conviction, since he is now a felon, affect his standing for the presidency; and, perhaps a surprise, there is nothing to suggest that he cannot, and furthermore he can vote for himself, since under New York State law felons can vote after filling the terms of his conviction, be they probation, prison term, highly unlikely in a white collar crime for a first time offender, but it should be noted that Trump like Eugene Debs in the 1920s could run for office from prison.

For voters, both Democratic and Republican many have already made up their minds, but the one area to be determined is how swing or independent voters will be affected, but before we get there, let’s look at what an NPR/PBSNewsHour/Marist poll that said:

“Overall, two-thirds (67%) said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote; three-quarters (76%) said the same of a not guilty verdict.

Roughly 1 in 6 voters (17%) said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to vote for Trump. That was true of a quarter of nonwhites and 1 in 5 voters who make less than $50,000 a year and those under 45.”

Then there is the money, following the money might lead to some surfeit of predictions and in the hours following the conviction, the Trump campaign said that they had raised $52.8 million in the 24 hours after the conviction, reported CBS News.

Next up besides the independent and swing voters are the Nikki Haley supporters, who have voted for her by 20 percent in the primaries of Indiana, Maryland and Nebraska, as a protest vote.

There have been attempts by some in the Biden campaign to lure them to their side and there may be an inroad since many of her supporters are college educated, suburban professionals, many of whom are women, who might be turned off by the unsavory details of the Daniels encounter.

An Economist/YouGov poll found that some voters felt that the trial and the conviction were unfair, with 10 percent fair, and 16 percent neutral, but have also noted that the distance between Trump and Biden is close, and averaging the data they find that the median result is 45 percent for Trump and 44 percent for Biden but they do give the cautionary note “that pre election polls have limited predictive power for the final result until the end of the summer in an election year.”

Court decision on Roe might help Biden in midterms

 

Now that that the dust has somewhat settled after the leak of a draft by the US Supreme Court with its intention to rescind the 1973 ruling establishing precedent for abortions in the country, and the backlash from pro choice supporters, and praise from antiabortionists, the verified document will send abortion rights back to the states, and will undoubtedly create a patchwork of laws affecting over 60 million American women.

The 6 to 3 conservative majority has also become a political beast of its  own with the legacy of three Trump appointed justices, and a conservative chief justice, and along with their majority they are also Roman Catholic, whose church is famously opposed to abortion.

The country has been rolling over what a post-Roe America will look like, but it also provides a window of hope for the Biden administration in the upcoming midterms, as his unexpected presidential agenda, includes a land war in Ukraine, without boots on the ground, but with considerable US financial aid; and, a continuing pandemic, which despite appearances, is still present, and battered by foreign policy flubs such as the bypass with France, to favor a deal with Australia over submarine contracts, and now another racially motivated mass shooting, that has the president pockmarked with bad poll numbers: 54.5 disapproving and 41.0 according to fivethirtyeight.com.

While perhaps not a stage for a counter revolution, seeing the country’s women face down a barrage of statewide trigger laws outlawing abortion, that alone, might galvanize abortion rights supporters, including independents to the November polls, or at least enough voter escalation to sustain the current slim majority by the Democrats in the Senate.

For those of a certain generation, the appeal to states rights is a familiar refrain of “rights history'', and was infamously used, more than fifty years ago, to fight civil rights laws for Black Americans, against the stronger teeth of federal legislation.

Extended to its most grievous aspects, the fear, of such legislation, is that it will be used to prevent women from accessing birth control information on their personal electronic devices, such as personal computers, or smartphones, but, also to the imprisonment of doctors, and even family members, who might assist in any manner to aid a woman in obtaining an abortion, even, as we’ve recently learned, crossing state lines to obtain one.

This has its roots in the the Texas law that saw an abridgement of these  freedoms which prompted Vice President Kamala Harris to state:

“All Americans should realize that this is a direct assault on the freedom of women, and it is an attack that can affect all Americans.”

Those fears also face the possible roll back of same sex marriage, and other key social legislation that has been passed, and as Harris continued, “When you look at the privacy rights that are in jeopardy, it could very well include the right to marry someone of the same sex.”

These fears can be seen, say some pollsters and academics, as a path to harness the needed votes for the Democrats to hold onto not only current majorities, but also to redefine the Biden administration.

The president has also called out the radicalism of the MAGA crowd, and while not mentioning the name of former President Trump, whose support for primary candidates may have splintered in some areas, (but certainly not all), still resonates with a radicalized and conservative crowd, even in a reliably blue city like Chicago, there are many residents that revere his name, and want him back in the Oval Office.

“Let me tell you about this ultra MAGA agenda,” Biden said, using former president Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan — “Make America Great Again” — as a pejorative. “It’s extreme, as most MAGA things are.”

Then, in the subsequent days, Biden and his team continued to hammer Republicans in aggressive terms, attacking them as “MAGA” and “ultra MAGA.” Biden even dismissed his predecessor at one point as “the great MAGA king,” reported The Washington Post.

A rallying call of sorts, was a coda issued by the vice-president who added, “I also believe strongly there is another fundamental right that is at stake, the right that all should be entitled to self determination.”

The problem is that in midterms of the past the Dems have taken a shellacking, Clinton in 1994 with 54 seats lost in the House of Representatives and Obama in 2010 and 2014, of 77; with a regain of 12, and with stakes at their highest for a denouement with Biden. 

Presidential historians show that midterm losses, the report card if you will, by the electorate, is now considered a given, as well as a travesty, by the standards of 2010.

To try and change that pattern Harris has used the New Frontier rhetoric of the Kennedy administration, when she said, “There is, at this moment, a time for education, a time for communication, a time for mobilization.”

What will be necessary for this to come together is a calculated campaign with all hands on deck, to show that the calculated politicization of the court: the assault on women's rights is something that is of utmost importance.

Doug Sosnik, a senior political advisor to Bill Clinton, told the Los Angeles Times, earlier in May, that after the ruling, in June could show “the impacts of the court’s actions will affect the lives of more voters, providing Biden with a further opening to sharpen his political narrative.”

Also, from veteran pollster Celinda Lake in that same forum , “This could be game changing in the midterm elections, and changing what happens in the midterms could have a profound effect on how people view the Biden presidency.”

For US economy February Jobs Report roars in like a lion

It might not yet be March Madness, but the February Jobs report issued this first Friday in March has given wholly, and not unexpected, news to economists and the White House as they have grappled with a menu of worries, the war In Ukraine, as the top international issue; but the recovering jobs market, got a shot in the arm, a second one, if you count January’s, that gave a whopper, minus the fries to that select group.

Now with 678,000 non farm jobs the US economy can see a stronger path forward from the pre pandemic, with its loss of 10 million plus jobs that hit the nation with what has now resulted in, as The Hill noted, “Unprecedented demand for workers and resilient consumer spending helped power another strong month of job growth.”

While nothing is guaranteed, and with the war in Ukraine’s potential to drain oil reserves and affect the world economy, the bump in service hiring alone might be the banner, which has led those lagging industries.

Specifically, that gain of 179,000 in leisure and hospitality, and a corresponding gain in 124,000 jobs in bars and restaurants, a significant employer across the US, but especially in urban areas such as New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami can give some solace to their workers.

Couple that with the less deleterious effect of the Omicron variant and decreasing case and hospitalizations of all Covid cases, and where in many large cities, the dropping of mask mandates, and vaccine requirements, the die seems to be cast for a robust jobs outlook.

While manufacturing is slack, construction increased by 60,000 after flat numbers in January.

One important data point, to use the colloquialism of the day, is that labor force participation was dormant, and while there was some movement of other workers returning to the workforce this is a key area that economists look to measure the temperature of the market.

There is some conjecture that many of the people who have stayed on the bench are older retirees, some who have not seen the benefits of masking mandates lifted, or those too unsure of a healthy and well ventilated environment conducive for working shoulder to shoulder, or those that have simply gotten too comfy in retirement.

For many Americans the higher wages received by desperate employers has increased worries for the inflationary prices, most notably at the gas pump where we have seen signs that seem like slot machine windows, where an average gallon of gas in Chicagoland has hit over $4.00, and in some cases, $ 4.65, an increase of a dollar, from last week.

A quick trip to the supermarket has seen increases in almost every category, and even the venerable Dollar Tree, justifiably proud of their one dollar price points are now $1.25, and yet some people, according to The New York Times: “despite strong job numbers, polls show the public thinks the U.S. economy is headed in the wrong direction.”

They also reported that some famous economists, namely the Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz, said “we are not facing an inflation crisis.” 

Or, at least not like we had in the 1970s. But, that might not allay fears of the public, especially for an older public that remembers those days, and with the increasing aggression in the Ukraine, fuel might become an issue for the economy and also President Biden, who after his bump in the polls after the State of the Union address could face closer scrutiny, and criticism, much like Chicago mayors do after snow storms.

Despite all efforts “People are unhappy about inflation,” said former top adviser and economist Jason Furman, who also advised President Obama, added that rising wages are now being eaten up by higher prices.

Joined by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is going to raise interest rates for the first time in years, later in March, as a bulwark against the rising tide of inflation.

With a hot economy some are saying like Chris Waller, a Fed governor, that he is willing to “support more aggressive rate increases .  . “.

As a refresh, high inflation begins with high prices and rising wages. And, some economists are predicting that wages may stagnate, thus creating the perfect storm, last seen in the 1970s.

Average hourly wages rose nearly 5.1 percent over the last year, down from January’s 5.7 percent, as employers tried hard to lure employees to handle increased demand for goods and services.

For women, Blacks, and Latinx people the needle has hardly moved since January, and for the former, the lack of affordable child care, still carries weight. Until Congress can agree on  a plan forward without the politicization of policy, women will not be returning to work in great numbers.

Labor Force Participation has stayed flat at 62.3 and that worries some who would like to see a higher number, but as we have seen there are the happily retired, and those who, especially in service jobs, might not want to return to what they see as a still dangerous workplace, working shoulder to shoulder.

Another monetary concern is affordable housing and has resulted in many people leaving large urban areas in search of affordable housing as well as a slower pace of life. But, with housing especially in the American south, being cheaper, that leaves a void for a basic urban necessity.

The Brookings Institution has noted in a recent report the lack of housing being built in these areas affects even those with higher wages and professional degrees, with minimal housing built in affluent areas despite the desire from this group, but resisted by current residents.

They cited San Francisco as an example of adding “only one home for every seven new jobs created between 2010 and 2015, while rents increased more than 40% during the same period.”

The power of existing residents make their preferences known as better heeled and affluent, people call the shots, limiting housing for low and even moderate income families.

While these issues, especially inflation, play a role in how much to celebrate, as Daniel Zhao told The Hill, "Ultimately, however, today’s jobs report helps build confidence in the resilience of the recovery and its ability to continue driving jobs growth despite unanticipated headwinds.”

What Manchin doesn't want, Biden can't get

Sen. Joe Manchin’s behavior around the Build Back Better bill makes him seem like the boyfriend that you can’t live with, or without. Just a week before Christmas he played Scrooge and denied President Biden a vote on his signature piece of social legislation, many of which contain pieces that Democrats have wanted for decades, and all of it hinging on the budget reconciliation process, in other words consensus, that the Democrats were forced to adopt since no Republicans would join them on this historical reform bill.

Now in the face of the upcoming midterms and low poll ratings for the president, Biden is forced to find some type of working relationship to salvage his presidency and to avert a possible departure of Manchin to the Republican party, leaving the slim majority the Dems have in the Senate fractured.

Yet as the old saying goes, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.”

This is an unenviable position and after seeing companion pieces like the voting rights bill dormant, the president also faces losing a key constituency, Black voters, that helped propel him to office. 

For progressives, like Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) who have given up so much, asking for more cuts risks losing the progressive wing that Biden needs for further legislation.

Some accused them, and also White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, of saying too much when they collectively accused the West Virginia senator of negotiating in bad faith and betraying the president, but, yet this is exactly what he did, and there is no amount of sugar coating that will change it.

Putting it mildly, to say the least, and using an old southern (G rated) expression he “messed” with the president; and, seemingly to all ears, had no intention of signing the bill.

Whether it was child tax credit extension, preschool advancements, or paid family leave it was always “no”, say Capitol Hill observers.

Attempts at wooing Manchin with a watered down bill will produce just that, a watered down bill.  And his grandstanding. That can’t be taken to the polls.

With Congress as well as the president in their home states celebrating the holidays, the post holiday buzz is how to advance ahead, and that is a road ahead that no one wants to imagine, but must be done.

Glancing into the rear view mirror, the president and voters are remembering the withdrawal from Afghanistan where right wing voters, one in particular, told us that “Biden deserves a bullet in his head for leaving all that equipment behind.”

Moving behind that dangerous rhetoric, and Jan. 6th aside, there was also the optics of Border Patrol whipping Haitian immigrants in the Rio Grande, alienating Black congressional leadership; some in the Beltway see the president riding for a fall.

A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last Monday said that 41 percent of Americans approve of his job, with 55 percent disapproving.

That old curmudgeon Sen. Lindsay Graham, said on FOX news,’I think Build Back Better is dead forever, and let me tell you why: because Joe Manchin has said he’s not going to vote for a bill  that will add to the deficit.”

Jayapal has noted that “I am sure that the conversation about legislation will continue, and we will continue to be involved in that. But, no one should think that we are going to be satisfied with an even smaller package that leaves people behind or refuses to tackle critical issues like climate change.”

And, as a final coda, The Hill reported that progressives “watched some of their biggest priorities stall out.”

Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, according to The Hill has proposed an idea that would cobble together a few key pieces such as prescription drugs, a ramped up Obamacare, clean energy and a “beefed up child tax credit”, and using the same revenue stream that his Senate Finance Committee, of which he is chair, from the same legislation earlier proposed.

Getting approval from Manchin might be like getting blood from a turnip, and after most of the year trying to woo him, it’s possible that the Democrats could push Manchin to the GOP where he seems most at home, and persuade a switch from the GOP to make this all come together.

He has also promoted overhauling the 2017 Tax Code, an effort that could simply mire the Dems in a long slog, that could reach nothing, but endless detail, and hot air; a clever and disingenuous move by Manchin.

Majority leader, Chuck Schumer has said that he wants to take a floor vote, that has surprised some observers, but would flush out Manchin’s true intent, on record, for as he has said, “I can't guarantee anything upfront, just vote, you’ll find out where I am.”

Biden White House faces midtern worries

 

It’s less than a year away, but the midterm elections in November of 2022 are looming large for the Biden Administration, and there are dire predictions that he will have to take a substantial hit on his handling of the economy with the burgeoning levels of inflation, the lingering criticism of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the handling of Haitian immigrants, and that he won’t have Nancy Pelosi to have his back as Speaker of the House if the Dems are defeated.

Adding to the mix are concerns that he won’t run again, due to his age; despite a clean bill of health, as the oldest US first term president. If he decided against a second term, some are speculating that Vice President Harris has not been adequately prepared as a successor, and some, less than fans, are putting Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, as the candidate in 2024.

We’ll take a look at some of the more pressing concerns topping the list of concerns is gerrymandering by the Republican party to affect gains, even in areas where they are in the minority. And, while the act of congressional district restructuring has been favored by both parties, what is at stake is the slim Democratic majority in the House, foremost, as well as the Senate, where Harris is the tiebreaker.

Gerrymandering taking center stage

Restructuring voter behavior has taken center stage in the GOP and Texas Gov. Greg Abbot at the end of October seemed to lead the charge, shadowing the move to practically outlaw abortions in Texas, despite the fact that many voters do not want an outright ban.

Bret Jaspers of KERA in a spot on NPR’s Morning Edition, interviewed Bob Stein a professor at Rice University, who noted, among others present, that without competitive district races, the die is cast against an effort by opposing parties.

He said that, “A February poll from UT Austin and the Texas Tribune showed only 13% of Texans think abortions should never be permitted.” as an example of Republican control that affects legislation.

Economy matters

Moving to the economy, the Biden White House has struggled to stay on message, even after inheriting a mess from the Trump administration, and has fumbled with vaccination deadlines that were not met, and only lately reached their 70 percent mark where most Americans had  at least one vaccine jab.

With an economy that sputtered and started with fits and frustration, after the lockdown, the US has received the fastest recovery in ages, but second to China, not first, as the president recently noted.

There are still 4 million jobs less than when the Covid pandemic began, and many women, in the absence of child care have left the workforce to care for children, and, or aging parents, creating a yawning gap in the workforce that has lowered the rate of workforce participation, as shown in the October Jobs Report, from the Labor Department.

Reconciling to the public that those 10 million jobs for four consecutive months, contrasted with 7.5 million before the pandemic makes for hard sledding for the White House.

Record numbers of Americans are quitting jobs have added to the vacuum, where many have begun to reevaluate jobs that were physically demanding and required long hours, many of whom also were working shoulder to shoulder and feared catching the virus.

Bottlenecks, Build Backs and Inflation

Going from bad to worse is the bottleneck of supply shortages due to shuttered factories abroad (from fear of Covid) further hampered by lack of warehouses, staff, drivers and ports that have had long waits for ships to dock. And, while Biden has done all that he can do to keep ports open, and Transportation secretary Buttigieg has said that wants to make trucking more attractive, the long hours that they pull away from their families can only go so far.

Some recent news indicates that port delays are lessening and that the dearth of semiconductors has also increased, noted General Motors, “to keep all of its North American production plants running;” welcome news in early November.

As economists have pointed out, there is little the White House can do to make dramatic changes.

Next up is inflation that Biden’s critics are having a field day with, and blaming the near $2 trillion proposed social spending bill as contributing to it and while any government expenditures threaten inflation, the figures from the Congressional Budget Office and the White House differ.

The Congressional Budget Office has said that the plan, better known as the Build Back Better plan will increase the deficit by $367 billion over 10 years, but the White House says that it will pay for itself, and helped by greater IRS reinforcement of tax evaders, to the tune of $400 billion, but the CBO replied by saying that effort would only yield a net $127 billion benefit.

Janet Yellen, Treasury secretary states the opposite and that the bill will pay for itself.

According to The Hill, “The consumer price index, which tracks inflation for a range of staple goods and services, rose 0.9 percent last month and 6.2 percent in the 12 months leading into October, the highest annual inflation rate since October 1990.”

The fear is that the Republicans can drive this issue, and they quote a Democratic donor that said, “the White House needs to continue to get in front of the issue.”

For consumers there is anger and that any gains they receive in wages and sign on bonuses are eaten up by higher costs, topped by higher housing costs. 

This is especially true for low income families, and as Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said, “.. . to cover their commuting costs, grocery bills and rents are eating into the jump they have seen in wages.”

Recent polls have dipped to 42 percent for Biden and many observers are attributing this to anger about inflation.

Swonk added that “Inflation is sizzling and will likely get hotter before it cools.”

Feuding Democrats

Perhaps providing no greater measure of waning voter confidence was the family fight among Democrats ,with progressives decrying cuts to “cherished objectives,” according to the Hill’s coverage, with the social spending plan, but also airing the family dirty linen for all to see seemed more like a House divided, than party unity, and the grandstanding by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin gave truth to the sight that the fight was still there.

Now with House passage, the role of the Senate makes all wonder, but voter disenfranchisement is still present, and Democrats need to show “that voters can feel the benefits, or at least know  those benefits are coming,” before the midterm elections.

Virginia gubernatorial defeat and loss of morale

Equally ominous was the defeat of Terry McAuliffe for governorship of Virginia, and polls that had him leading, and GOP contender Glenn Youngkin trailing, badly. Of course polls can be wrong, dead wrong, (“Dewey defeats Truman” as a historical example) and even though the latter’s win was razor thin, a win is still a win.

The win was heartbreaking and soul shattering for Democrats, a party that had led in statewide races since 2009, and that Biden won in double digits, but it also holds a distinct irony since “history is on the side of the party not in power, because the Virginia election is one of the first chances for opponents of the sitting president to register their frustration.”.

Youngkin held Trump at arm's length distance and the Dems wanted to make the election about Trump, and the former’s strategy paid off, along with a handy wedge issue of the falsehood that Critical Race Theory is taught in elementary and high school’s, and an offhand remark by McAuliffe that the teachers should not be told what to teach was the final shaft.

The subject of suburban voters, especially women, as independent voters is now going to be a new epistle, and taking them as a monolithic block did not shatter the CRT myths, but did enough to scare voters, almost as much as the bathroom wars of a few years back, did the trick.

What didn't was the lack of focus by the Dems, not only in Virginia, but elsewhere, on state level elections and voter turnout, while many voters, including people of color, dismiss midterm elections as less valuable. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Vice-President Harris? A lost opportunity?

Adding to voter concern is the historic selection of a woman of color as his running mate and vice president, but whom many see, herself included, as often out of focus and his assignments, redolent of Biden’s own vice presidency to Barack Obama, but in a different time and a different place, they don’t work. 

An example is having Harris be a point person on immigration, an area ripe for failure and as the US has stumbled since the late 19th century, and beyond, trying to write policy amidst the vagaries of world wars, nativism and downright prejudice. In short, a great stumbling block for her to be attacked in a possible 2024 presidential race, especially for a prospective GOP challenger, such as former Vice President Mike Pence.

In the hothouse atmosphere of the White House where everyone is racing to singularize themselves, their boss and the press, Harris and her staff are at odds in an era far removed from California politics, and even from the more august senate, where those odds are now grist for 21st century social media.

As CNN pointed out in a lengthy piece, she often appears bland, and over-scripted; but under her own devices, such as the 30th anniversary of Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network at Carnegie Hall, she displayed verve, and some targeted shots at Trump, his Big Lie and at Ron De Santis and his gubernatorial counterpart, Abbot, on their new state voting laws, as an extension of the Lie; in short she was, even by the standards of jaded New York politicos, a star..

Please Mr. President, sir, can we have some more?

It was over when it was over: Afghanistan and the U.S.

There was a time in the not too distant past when two United States presidents faced the threat of communism from Southeast Asia: one young, and charismatic, had initially heeded the advice of his elder predecessor, who warned him not to get involved in Vietnam. He was followed by a veteran senator, who transitioned to the presidency upon the death of the younger, and eager to be seen as brave.

The two presidents, of course, are John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson; the former reluctant to get involved, on the advice of his predecessor, Dwight Eisenhower, but later prodded by military chieftains to at least provide advisors, until he was forced to answer later, by an anxious media, as to why a US military helicopter was shot down.

What type of “advising” was that, they asked.

Later, in November of 1963, when more “advisors” were sent to Vietnam, Kennedy asked his top aide, on the way to that fateful trip to Dallas, “find a way to get us out of Vietnam.”

Johnson conscious of his legacy, as well as history, was reluctant to pull troops out, inc case he was second guessed by that same history, and communism roiled across the ocean, but agonized, all the while, kept them in; and, ultimately in the face of demonstrations and chants of “Hey, hey LBJ, how many boys did you kill today?” outside the White House gates, influenced his decision not to run for a second term, ending what historians would have recognized as a brilliant presidency.

The recent exodus from Afghanistan by President Biden came to mind, as we surveyed the damage from the planned pullout, and as America and its leader, has been jeered at and poked, what also comes to mind is the age old discussion of what role the US should play on the world's stage; an idea shaped by its dominance in two World Wars.

When President George Bush brought US  troops to Afghanistan it was in response to Al Qaeda’s direct attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, that unforgettable day as dust and debris covered people and streets became Ground Zero, an attack that brought global sympathy. 

It also brought a 20 year old commitment to a land and culture that few understood, and most countries had abandoned, at any level of partnership, or colonialism, Russia as one example, and took the world’s superpower to a place far beyond its initial goals to one of nation building.

With billions of dollars, and thousands of troops, and tragic deaths on both sides the US soldiered on enduring some victories, and many losses, that gave more hope than actions, and the military reports often hid the central question of what was happening and for how long would we be there.

Biden, taking following the exit plan of former President Trump, became enveloped amidst a plethora of advice, some pessimistic, some optimistic, about the Afghan’s ability to defend itself.

It also became curiously aligned with the timeline of Vietnam, and reluctant to admit a sad reality of inability, the military, according to The New York Times, “believed they would continue to fight for a time after the Americans left.”

Based on that assumption, it “took two years for a collapse after the withdrawal of troops and financial support. Optimists believed the Afghan military, with American funding, could last nearly as long. Pessimists thought it would be shorter,” they added.

The former view became the dominant one, and the resulting chaos to try and get allies and embassy personnel out of the country was the end result, while the scene echoed those from Saigon where people held dangling leads to helicopters.

Optics in this case ruled the day, with images of hundreds of Afghans fleeing, on foot and by auto, hand luggage dangling from their arms, fearful that their lives would change for the worse under the Taliban, based on its previous record of intolerance, abuse, and violence, especially towards women and girls. 

Adding to the desperate images of Afghans clinging to the fuselage, and even on the wings,and in the wheels of American cargo transporters, the images are heartbreaking, but don’t tell the whole story.

Fear and fact are often opposite ends, and as many have noted the Taliban waged a well calculated takeover learning both from the lessons of the West and their own knowledge of the country and its culture, steadily taking small provincial capitals, “they simply melted into the population to begin planning what would be a 20 year insurgency,” in an earlier report from The New York Times.”

They also gave money to the underpaid, or not paid Afghans, “secured border crossings, and assuaged with cultural knowledge a “population that is so tired, and weary of conflict they agreed to flip and support the winning side so they could survive.”

While these optics have been devastating to America’s image and Biden, the fallout from American allies, including our oldest, and who claim a special relationship with us, was exemplified by former British Prime Minister Theresa May who labelled the actions of the United States, as “incomprehensible,” while also railing about her successor, Boris Johnson, at the absence of the British as a backup, but the latter seemed dubious at best, especially with the absence of NATO.

Michael McCaul, Republican congressman from Texas has said that Biden has “blood on his hands.” And, both the House and Senate have called for congressional investigations.

While the ratings for Biden who had hovered near 50 percent, will slip, and whose criticism will be relentless, especially from hardcore militarists from the GOP, is a given, no one who occupies the Oval Office runs for the presidency, for their health, but the 78 year old chief executive seems prepared to take it on the chin, and said on Friday according to The New York Times that he “promised to bring home any American still trapped in Afghanistan, calling the evacuation effort for Americans and vulnerable Afghans “one of the largest, most difficult airlifts in history.”

But he acknowledged that he did not know how many Americans were still in the country, or if they could ultimately be brought out safely.

“Let me be clear: Any American who wants to come home, we will get you home,” Mr. Biden said, before adding, “I cannot promise what the final outcome will be, or that it will be without the risk of loss.”

He also added, said the Times, and sought “to give a sense of how many people had been flown out of the country in the days since Afghanistan’s collapse, Mr. Biden said that some 18,000 people had been airlifted from the country since July. This week, he said, Afghans — including women leaders — and American journalists — including staff members of The Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal — had been safely removed from the country.

Mr. Biden said that he would commit to airlifting Afghans who had been helpful to the 20-year war effort, but said Americans were his first priority.”