Trump is back!

It’s official, Donald J. Trump, as of 12:01 p.m. this past Monday, is now the 47th president of the United States, in a country that is still divided, but with his key goal of migrant removal seemingly approved. And, Washington was replete with American flags flapping in the frigid weather, and Republicans lost no time in cris crossing the capital in a show of solidarity, culminating in celebratory parties from Georgetown to Kalorama, two of Washington’s toniest neighborhoods.

His comeback is considered remarkable, but it is no surprise to his base who championed him far and wide. What can be questioned is if he has a mandate, and while true enough that he won the popular vote this time, the win was by approximately 1,000 votes; the electoral college notwithstanding 51.2 percent versus Harris at 47.8.

What is now apparent is that Trump will do his utmost to promote his agenda, and the highlights are: immigration first, and foremost, closing the border, deporting illegal immigrants, and especially those who have committed crimes; dismantling DEI requirements in the federal government and the military; and, putting 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada. 

In a demonstration of his will, Trump immediately signed a slew of executive orders, and one stating that there are only two genders, male and female, an opening salvo in the battle for transgendered rights. 

Perhaps to no one’s surprise he also pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Accord, and the World Health Organization, whom he and other Republicans have criticized for their efforts in public health facing the COVID pandemic.

Next up is the slimming down of the federal bureaucracy, one that he called bloated, and who critics fear he will fill with loyalists. And, while that has not been seen yet, a look at the fact that Trump has remodeled the Republican Party in own image, it's not an empty promise, and on Tuesday, the day after he was inaugurated, he had all Diversity Equity and Inclusion employees in the federal government place on paid leave effective Wednesday,

Perhaps, the most pressing changes are not the promised deportation, as controversial as they are, but the pardon or commutations of the 1500 Jan 6 protestors who stormed the US Capitol building, breaking windows and threatening to hang his vice president, Mike Pence, and to drag Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi from her office

Capitol Hill officers who were guarding both the building, and them, were bombarded with batons, bats, and pepper spray, resulting in the death of Officer Brian Misnick, whose heart could not withstand the sheer physical and mental effort he put forth to defend the building, and its occupants.

It is notable that Trump’s  then running mate, and now Vice President, JD Vance said he would not do so, have now created a dilemma  for the new administration, albeit an unintended consequence of a campaign promise, if not now, then later.

While some Republicans have said that eventually these pardons will fade into the background, it is at odds with the wholesale support of police officers across the nation, by the party, and their supporters.

The promise of mass deportations, roughly estimated to be 12 million undocumented people, has created fear in many of America’s largest, and Democratic cities; but, especially in Chicago, where the designated Border Czar, Tom Homan said will begin in Chicago, has raised the threat level among many undocumented people, despite their age, and socio economic status.

While the popular conception is that undocumented workers are all from Mexico, that is not true, and there are many Indians from South East Asia, China and Vietnam, working across a variety of places in the city.

While below zero temperatures in many parts of the country may have hampered Homan’s efforts, the fear factor remains, especially when the Department of Homeland Security’s Acting Secretary Benjamine Huffman recently changed the rule that schools and churches, once off limits for Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests, can now be made.

Those efforts culminated in a perceived threat by ICE officials in an elementary school on Chicago’s South Side, Hamline, that later proved to be the Secret Service searching for a public official that they were to guard, but who had disappeared, only to be told later that he was at the school. While that initial report proved to be false, it has put the city on cautious alert, and both Mayor Brandon Johnson, and Governor JB Pritzker have vowed to not support ICE efforts at deportations, with Johnson saying, “We’re going to fight and stand up for working people. That’s what Chicago is known for.”

“Both Chicago and Illinois laws prevent local law enforcement from asking about a person’s immigration status, detaining them because they lack statute and notably, largely bar officers from cooperating with federal agents. There is an exception if ICE agents are looking for individuals with federal criminal lawsuits,” reported local PBS affiliate WBEZ.

Several alder people have sponsored “Know Your Rights” seminars, and some local churches have also done the same, perhaps in response to the plea for mercy from the Episcopal bishop of Washington, the Rev. Mariann Budde in a National Prayer Service, where she told the president, in her sermon, that many people were scared of his policies, and noting that many undocumented people were not criminals, but hard working people.

There are reports of a flight to Guatemala deporting immigrants from the US, approximately 265, on three flights, and one charter, that country said.

Reports of planes to Mexico carrying deportations have not been verified, as of this date; but, Mexico has established tent cities along the border to welcome any Meixans that are deported, and give them health care, and take care of other needs.

Trump’s agenda has been well established along the campaign trail 

All of these moves has angered Democrats, left leaning politicians and their supporters; but, in reality this should also not come as a surprise to them, but as the famous entomologist William Safirre once wrote in his New York Times Magazine column, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating.”

One of the most controversial of Trump’s executive orders is the repeal of the 14th Amendment of the right, not a banishment, of the Constitution, which states that anyone born in the United States is a citizen. Trump says that this can no longer be unless one parent is a citizen. 

Supporters have said on social media that this is a redefinition, not a banishment, but wordsmithing may not hold much weight with constitutional law.

This denial would affect hundreds of millions of people, and has already frightened many families; but, one that might prove to go to the Supreme Court, and we have been told, on background, is the very intention of the new president.

However, reaching back to the civics classes of yore: to change the Constitution of the United States, Congress must call a convention for the proposal of an amendment, after an application of the state legislatures, by two thirds, 34 of the current 50 states, and become valid “only when ratified by the legislatures of, or conventions in, three fourths of the states, (i.e. 38 of 50 states), according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

On Thursday US District Judge John C. Coughenour,according to the Associated Press, “temporarily blocked” the order, “in the case brought by the states of Washington, Arizona, Illinois and Oregon, which argue the 14th Amendment and Supreme Court Case law have cemented birthright citizenship.”

It’s important to note that executive actions are not legislation, and can be undone by succeeding presidents, but despite either the intent, or the results, this is Trump’s moment.

One cause of concern: Trump is 78, not too much younger than his predecessor, Joe Biden, and with a 40 year old vice president to succeed him, the agenda that is Trump’s could be with the country for a long time.

 

Then again, it might take years to have the Trump agenda codified, for example the dismantling of the DEI office and employees; and, as Noreen Farrell the executive director of Equal Rights, a gender rights group, told the AP, “the reality of implementing such massive structural changes is far more complex.”

The DEI programs had a far ranging effort to help Black majority neighborhoods, “credits for minority farmers,” as well as increasing hiring opportunities for racial minorities, and women.

To note, the initial 2022 rapport released by the federal DEI for the federal workforce, said that it was, “about 60 percent white and 55 percent male overall, and more than 75 percent white and more than 60 percent male at the senior executive level.”

These executive orders are just the tip of the iceberg, administration officials state, and as the nation responds with cheers, and jeers, it’s apparent that Trump is back, and the nation, and the world, is on edge in anticipation of the future.

Heads up for a boost in the December 2024 Jobs Report

The news is in, as of Friday, 256,000 non farm jobs were created for the month of December, an unexpected surprise for the United States economy, and a boon to to those in government, and for job seekers, Accompanying the good news is the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, giving solace to many, and support towards the soft landing that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell so long predicted, and hoped for.

Consistent with that news is the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, and accompanied by the usual heavy hitters: leisure and hospitality, government, education, and construction giving weight to that old canard, a resilient American economy, which while overworked, seems to be the label that can best be applied to the current state of the world’s largest economy.

Factoring in the good news is that it is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve Bank will cut interest rates further than it already has, and as the Fed noted in mid December, “recent indications suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” and most importantly, ”The Committee seeks to achieve maxim employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.”

At that time they “decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by ⅓ percentage point to 4 to 1/4 point to 4 to ½ percent.”

Giving an overall look most economists feel that there is nothing wrong with this report, and President Joe Biden, in a statement from the White House, said, “Although I inherited the worst economic conditions in decades with unemployment over 6 percent when I took office we’ve had the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in 50 years with unemployment at 4.1 percent as I have.”

As The New York Times notes, this report shows, “renewed vigor after months of caution among both workers and businesses.” 

Perhaps most significantly, and probably speaking for many economists, and observers, was Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at the banking firm Jefferies, who added to the Times report, "It is hard to say anything negative about the details of this report.”

Amidst the robust report there is the slight but statistically significant lower rate for women in the workforce to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 %, and in general for women’s employment increased to 57.4 %, and for Black women there was a decrease of unemployment to 5.4 %.

Consistent with that, the closely watched household survey was very strong and grew to nearly a quarter of a million people, with fewer people out of work over the last six months.

Close on the heels of that is the lowered jobless claims reported on Thursday, but there was both acknowledgement and a cautionary note reported by Yahoo Finance: [while] “ Simons said that ”there's a disconnect between labor demand and weekly jobless claims, plus, "A mentor of mine in the past always cautioned me, 'Don't try to predict employment with an unemployment statistic.'”

"Additionally, he points out that the figures don't fully capture businesses' reluctance to lay off workers due to concerns about future talent acquisition. However, he suggests this dynamic may shift and recommends monitoring the labor metrics of small businesses and startups,” for that fuller picture.

Encouraging was the Labor Force Participation Rate which for those aged 25 to 54 years old decreased to 83.4, capturing data for those working part time, and seeking full time work, or those not working, a half point lower than the 83.9 % than last year. These figures are the lowest since March, and looking at a four week average, and with data capturing points both high and low, their descent was by 3,500 to 232,250.

The heavy hitters ar as we have seen in previous months: Education and health care at 80,000; retail (may be a positive blip due to seasonal hiring) of 43,4000; leisure and hospitality at 43,000; government at 38,000, and business services, that catch all at 28,000; with weak link being manufacturing which showed a loss of 13,000, but may be attributed to weather conditions, as a few reports back there was an increase.

For Black women there was a significant decrease in unemployment and nbc4washington.com reported that, “For Black women, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% in December. That is down from 5.9% in November, when the jobless rate rose nearly a percentage point for the cohort. The labor force participation rate, which tracks the population employed or seeking work, inched up to 62.4%..”

“Among Black workers overall, the unemployment rate also declined in December, slipping to 6.1%. That compares to a rate of 6.4% in November and 5.7% in October.”

"There were some concerns about the Black unemployment rate going up," said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, referring to November's uptick. "It's still significantly higher than for other groups — and that's still a concern — but nothing in this report jumps out as particularly problematic."

Associated Press reported that those receiving unemployment benefits “fell to their lowest level in nearly a year last week, pointing to a still healthy labor market with historically low layoffs.”

And, for that week, despite the cautionary notes, there was a “four week average of claims, which evens out the week to week ups and downs, fell by 10,250 to 213,000.”

Pulling the camera back a bit, we can see that through November U.S. employers added 180,000 jobs a month for 2024, but down from the “go go” year of 2023 when there were 231,000, but no one can say that this past year was bad by any means.

While a proxy for layoffs, the joblessness claims, AP noted, but also significantly reported, “those have remained below pre pandemic levels.”

The Labor Department report also showed that wages increased by 0.3 % over the month, giving a leg up on inflation, still not at the desired 2% mandate for the Federal Reserve.

Despite that mandate, and according to Bloomberg News, “Americans expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years, up from the 3% expected last month, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary January survey released Friday. They also see costs rising 3.3% over the next year, up 0.5 percentage point from December.”

“Nearly one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 24% in December and less than 2% prior to the election,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “These consumers generally report that tariff hikes will pass through to consumers in the form of higher prices.”

“Inflation expectations climbed across many demographic groups, particularly lower-income Americans. More concerning, 22% of respondents reported that buying big-ticket goods now would enable them to avoid future price hikes. That matches the prior month as the highest since 1990, the report showed.”

Before we dive into the political angles and there are many, a quick note about retail figures, they are showing also as a predictor of permanent employment, since they often are the pathway for permanent employment; but, this might be conjecture on some observers who state that women with less than 2 years of post secondary education may be headed for a loss, while that may be getting ahead of ourselves since we have seen an increase in employment for women, and the question may hinge on future efforts by the incoming administration of Donald Trump.

As we wrote last month, “The elephant in the room are the proposed tariffs of 25 percent, on Canada, Mexico, and even higher for China, and has been widely reported to have a detrimental effect on the US economy, and consumer buying which is the bedrock of the American economy. 

Suggestions that these are negotiating tools for Trump are, at this point speculation, but definitely a cause for concern.  If the so-called DOGE efforts at reducing government waste, a laudable goal, but if it includes layoffs, those could have a detrimental effect on national employment.”

Another facet is that Trump, no fan of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will try to fire him, not technically possible as the Fed operates independently of the presidency, but the recent resignation of Vice President of Supervision Michael Barr to prevent what he felt would be the new administration to keep the Fed from being politicized, or to use the vernacular, he saw a target on his back.

“I strongly value the independence of the Fed,” Barr told POLITICO on Monday shortly after he announced his plans to resign as vice chair of supervision. He said he chose to quit as vice chair — while maintaining his seat as a Fed governor — because he “was worried that the risk of a dispute over the position would end up being a political distraction for the Federal Reserve and for me, and that that would end up detracting from our ability to serve our mission.”

While Trump has never publicly commented on the Barr resignation, or any intentions at weakening the independence of the Fed, there were discussions during the campaign, and as Politico noted:

“Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump advisers and allies floated several ideas as to how he might blunt the Fed’s independence in his second term. Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick to lead the Council of Economic Advisers, and Dan Katz, who’s slated to be chief of staff at Treasury, published a paper calling for changes that would allow the president to dismiss Fed governors at will. Trump’s Treasury nominee Scott Bessent proposed appointing a “shadow Fed chair” to provide forward guidance on rates while Powell serves out his term as chair. (That idea has already been abandoned.).”

While there is some disagreement among academics on how weakening the independence of the Fed could work, it's clear, that for some, it’s all over but for the fighting, according to an old expression from the American South.

Aftermath: The Defeat of Kamala Harris

Just before last Tuesday’s election, things looked great for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee to succeed President Joe Biden after his decision in July not to run for reelection. After that announcement, and her entry into the race she managed to energize the base, and her infectious smile and masterful detail was definitely a threat to her rival former President Donald Trump, and her rallies attracted huge crowds, waving, clapping with visible energy.

Harris had outspent Trump to the tune of $1.4 billion, but widely identified herself as the underdog, and with the increasing attention given to him, this was smart politicking, especially as well as realism since many polls identified the two as neck and neck, in some instances 50/50 and in others, a notch, or two, above each other.

She definitely ran a better, stronger, and faster campaign than her first run for the presidency in 2020, where management lacked strength and the capacity to prepare her for facts and figures. But, this time, her efforts were not merely photogenic, but substantial as she managed the landscape of interviews and statements, with a staff that was sharper in their handling, than many other modern presidential campaigns.

In this sense, Harris definitely picked up the torch from Biden who suffering from the flu, stumbled badly in his debate with Trump, and her background as attorney general of California, and her legal training, prepared her for her debate with Trump, who seemed old, enfeebled and unprepared as she steam rolled over him with both polity and grace.

It was always a closely contested race, and many had predicted a razor thin win for Harris, who had to contend with both her gender, as well as her Indian and Jamaican ethnicity’, which she wisely did not capitalize on, having learned the lessons of the defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Election night brought more than a case of anxiety for her supporters, but championed a victory, no matter how thin, as she was lampooned, cursed, and ridiculed by Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, as they blamed her for every ill, both real and imagined, for the last four years, with the exception of the common cold.

As the returns came in all were watching the seven critical swing states that could deliver her the needed 270 electoral votes, and as North Carolina, there was still optimism as Harris had not expected to lead in the Tar Heel state; but, as the evening wore on, and tired fans went to bed, they woke to the news that Trump had won three key battleground states, Wisconsin, Michigan and the highly coveted Pennsylvania.

Harris supporters holding vigil at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington, DC, were deflated in their misery. And, while the book is yet to be written on why, opinions have rolled in from every corner: some blaming Biden for not dropping out of the race earlier, with the Democrats then holding a primary, to sexism and misogyny, to Trump being the devil known.

There has been some speculation that many said they would vote for her, but then stayed at home, either undecided, or worried about being denied the right to vote by a well-financed GOP juggernaut; and, as we saw in Georgia there was an attempt to demand hand counts, plus the electric ballot boxes, and also to other states where election officials were sued in specious claims of voter fraud.

Now that the dust has somewhat settled, we are seeing that there was an edge, not momentous, not enough for Trump to claim a mandate, but an increase in votes from the burgeoning Latino populations whose working-class roots, in many cases, focused them on kitchen table issues that dominated their budgets, such as high grocery prices, and rent, despite the fact that US presidents do not control them.

There was also a younger male Black population that felt the Trump years were kinder to their wallets, based more on perception than fact. Black voters overall voted 8 out of 10 for Harris, but this was down from 9 out of 10 in 2020 for Biden.

Significantly, it was younger Black males, 19 to 45 years old that gave Trump the edge, double the amount that he got in 2020, and roughly double the amount that he got in 2020.

Harris got a lead from Latino voters, but down from the 6 out of 10 that Biden received in 2020.

Race, always an issue in American life, and especially in politics, showed that White voters, always the majority of American voters, voted in higher numbers in those three swing states, and it was especially notable with older White voters, particularly those in rural areas, a fact which had been determined by many pollsters.

As the Associated Press reported, “white voters make up a bulk of the voting electorate in the United States, and they did not shift their support significantly at the national level compared to 2000.”

Interestingly enough they noted that White support for Harris was about the same for Biden, four out of ten voted for Harris.

Much has been made of the increased Latino vote, but it may not quite be the juggernaut that it seems

In the past, social class and race were clarion calls for the Democrats had definitely relied on working class voters decades ago, and Blacks had been a mainstay since Civil Rights struggles and victories in the 1960s.

Taking into consideration what was then and what now, an important factor was the education of the electorate, both for Trump, as well as Harris. The base for the former had always capitalized on those Whites, especially rural people without college degrees, and an early CNN poll showed that those that had college degrees, or some college, tended to vote for Harris and less for Trump, far less.

Not to be overlooked  in this equation is the low level of information that fueled much of those voters, that led them to embrace the accusations by Trump, and Vance, that legal Haitian immigrants, in Ohio were abducting and eating pet dogs and cats; a claim that Vance later admitted to CNN anchor Dana Bash was false, but he deemed necessary to get media attention to the plight of American workers.

A durable myth for younger Blacks, and even some of their elders, was that Biden, and all presidents, set the prices of groceries and other durable goods; but also not knowing that Trump had given a brief and temporary tax cut for the average income Americans, but a near permanent, and much deeper cut for corporations.

As a letter writer to the New York Times noted somewhat  ruefully, had they been better educated critical thinking skills would have been utilized to analyze these falsehoods, or at the very least, read the more reliable media reports that showed them to be untruthful.

Added to this was the deep well of lies, of which the pet eating was just one example from Trump, and his MAGA followers, joined by the earlier claim by QANON that John Kennedy, Jr, was still alive and would be Trump’s running mate, while some even gathered in Dealey Plaza, the sight of his father’s assassination in Dallas,waiting for him to reappear.

Even further afield was a claim that Democrats were responsible for hurricane Milton, by “seeding” the clouds to produce the devastating event, for the sole intention of preventing southerners, White Southerners, from voting for Trump.

Cultural myths accompanied these outlandish claims, and one of the most salient was that Harris was going to allow federal inmates to receive gender change surgeries at taxpayer expense; a position that she did not run on, but based on statements, she made in 2019, for legalized treatments for gender dysphoria, and that one surgery was performed after a lawsuit on behalf of the prisoner.

Redolent of the earlier bathroom wars, the issue of transgender people became fodder for ridicule and stereotyping Democrats as being out of touch with “real” Americans.

Added to this, by Trump supporters, were profane and misogynist statements leveled at Harris, including racial stereotypes, as “stupid” and “lazy” and even calling her the ‘C” word.

Much of his base laughed and applauded at these remarks, but as we noted in 2016, this was promulgated by  fear-based politics, from the playbook that he used then, and with this recent campaign.

These statements often fell on the ears of some Black men, especially those with conservative and biblically held gender beliefs, coupled with sexism, and the disbelief that a woman could be president, ironic thst those beliefs translated to votes for Trump, and with the matriarchy of many Black communities, irony ruled; despite the appeals of former President Barack Obama.

There was also voter apathy, and even abandonment, from part of this group as we heard a conversation on the bus from one Black man who said, “I have never voted, and never will.”

Hearing this we thought of those violent and bloody battles that American Blacks faced for the right to vote in the 1960s, a fact that was broadcast on the BBC when its program host said just before last Tuesday, “universal suffrage did not come to America until 1965, and yes, you heard that right.”  

Moving to the disinformation, a casual glance at the social media platform X gives Trump supporters plenty of ammunition to thwart Harris from vile and demeaning comments about supposed sexual behavior with Willie Brown to lewd dancing, and even a hilarious clip of Vance blaming her for the price of eggs at $4.00 per dozen while he held a two dozen carton, but a sign in the background showed  a price of $2.99 a dozen, as his young son, who accompanied him, tried frantically, to point out his error.

It was a bit rich to try and portray Harris as a sexual renegade with Trump’s multiple marriages, where he was unfaithful, and frequently entered the dressing rooms of his pageant beauty queens when he thought they would be undressed; and notably his sexual encounter with porn star Stormy Daniels while his wife was pregnant with their son Baron.

Of course no one can forget his claim of grabbing women by the genitals on Access Hollywood, and that they let him because he was a celebrity. But, his supporters seem to forget all of this as they see him as a political savior to return the United States to its glory days, much as Russian President Vladimir Putin claims to restore his country to its Imperial past; and, a man he sincerely admirers along with anther authoritarian leader Viktor Orban, prime minister of Hungary.

His admiration for authoritarian leaders across the world, including Hitler, according to John Kelly, his former chief of staff, and a point of criticism by Vance before he aligned himself with Trump.

A brief look back at Trump’s earlier claims during his first run for office as he untruthfully categorized Mexican immigrants as rapists and murderers, it’s clear to see that the playbook of that time was still in evidence, with Vance much like comedian Johnny Carson’s sidekick Ed McMahon, on the old Tonight show, providing backup, often comedic as we’ve seen.

Lies as we have seen have been part and parcel of Trump’s candidacies and as historian Ruth Ben Ghiat has noted, “The number of documented falsehoods he uttered as president increased from 5.9 a day in 2017 to an average of 22 a day in 2019, for a total of 16,241 in his first three years in office.”

We can expect more in his second non consecutive term, and If we take all of the false claims, the misbeliefs of those who voted for Trump, and his past administration together, it says less about Harris, than it does how American voters both receive and process information, no matter how truthful. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US Jobs hit a snag for October

In a surprise to most, Friday’s Jobs report released by the US Bureau of Labor gave a shockingly low figure of 12,000 non farm jobs created, but the caveat was that the low figure was faulted by hurricanes Milton and Helene and the Boeing strike. Despite that most economists and government officials state that the American economy is still solid. A truer picture will come in December with the release of the November report.

While there are still complains about high prices, especially at the grocery store, inflation has actually come down by 2,4 a steady decrease from 2.5 in September, but public sentiment is that it is still too high, perhaps forgetting that those pre pandemic prices are unlikely to come back; and, that once retailers and suppliers, confounded three years ago, by supply chain issues, and higher overhead saw consumers continue to shop, so they were unlikely to decrease their profit margins, even if they could do so.

The good news is that wages for October increased to 0.4 percent, making them higher than inflation, and correspondingly consumer spending remained high, the driver of the US economy.

NPR reported this: "You’re still seeing wages and salaries running ahead of inflation," says economist Sarah House at Wells Fargo. "So that’s still really beneficial for overall consumer spending growth and keeping it in the black.”

With the presidential election just around the corner and former president Donald Trump saying that he heard Americans and that the US single handedly bringing inflation down and restoring manufacturing jobs, while proposing a tariff that would increase consumer goods prices, a political conundrum exists.

VIce President Kamala Harris seems on surer ground with proposed efforts to prevent price gouging, but that might be a heavy lift without congressional support.

The Household Survey Data continue to show steady news: an unemployment rate little changed at 4.1 and the number of unemployed people at 7.0 million, great but perhaps not spectacular news for Harris, but neverthel;ess a solid number that the country can take pride in, Trump excepted.

Labor Force Participation those aged from 25 to 54 years old held a slight decrease from 83.8 percent to 83.5 percent,

Longterm unemployment remained at 1.6 million, little changed from the prior month. So, on an optimistic side, nothing lost, nothing gained, due to the storms and the Boeing layoff, but room for improvement, if not markedly so.

Temporary employment  took dramatic losses, since March of 2022, and steadily decreased for a few months, now reaching 49,000 for October.

Second to that significance was manufacturing which lost 46,000 jobs due to the decline of 44,000 in the manufacturing of transportation equipment from the machinist strike at Boeing.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Bank at their meeting next week, and they are expecting, as planned, a quarter percentage point decrease in interest rates to keep the economy chugging.

Examining and fact checking the Vice Presidential debate

In the wake of Tuesday’s presidential debate between Sen. JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota all who viewed it agreed it was more civil than was expected, as many felt that it was going to be a "throw down” between the two very different candidates, especially since the many volatile, and even vile attacks by the former, and would probably include attacks on the military records of the latter in the National Guard, while some expected Walz to attack the more egregious attacks by Vance on Haitian immigrants living in Springfield Ohio that he accused of kidnapping and eating pets and ducks in local waters.

Walz was also expected to contest Vance’s statements of women without children as “childless cat ladies” who, bereft of being a mother, lacked the necessary intelligence to function in American life.

That would be a lot to unpack what has been expected to be a very close election between their bosses, former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Walz came out of the gate visibly nervous but soon relaxed and was able to gain hold on the debate stage, despite his earlier warnings to Harris that he was no debater. Vance, who has scored the lowest favorability of any vice presidential candidate,(a negative 11 according to a CNN poll) in recent history must have been keenly aware of the fact and decided to rival the fabled “Minnesota Nice” aspect of his Democratic rival.

Vance as is well known has given scores of interviews and comments on a variety of media platforms extolling the virtues of Trump and his record, albeit weak, and demonizing Harris as a “Flip Flopper” despite his own record of likening Trump to Hitler and some embarrassing gaffs, most recently, in a store, in front of a display of eggs with a sign stating $2.99 a dozen, while blaming Harris for increasing them to $4.00 a dozen while holding a carton of 24 eggs, while his 7 year old son tried to point out his mistake by pointing at the sign.

Walz, on the other hand has gained a plus four net favorability, due in no small measure to his “everyman” image, and what has seemed apparent, a genuinely nice guy persona, evident on the campaign trail.

The expectation that Vance would outshine Walz, and attack him. on his misstating his title and record in the Guard, and his recollection of when he was in China and if so, was it during the uprising in Tiananmen Square, was low hanging fruit that the senator did not pounce on.

Vance to his credit, often referring to the governor as Tim and expressed empathy when he learned that Walz’s son had witnessed a shooting and said, “Christ have mercy.” A penitential response from the liturgy of the Roman Catholic Mass, or a heartfelt response from the senator, We like to think of the latter.

He is also a chameleon to some, an opportunist to others, a scion of Silicon Valley under the tutelage and mentorship of billionaire Peter Thiel, and who when pressed upon learning of Walz as Harris’ running mate was asked if they had anything in common by reporters, stated, “Well, look, I mean, yeah, we’re white guys from the Midwest.” and “I guess there are similarities there.”

That aside what Vance excelled at on Tuesday, and was often overlooked by some observers was that he lied continuously for nearly 90 minutes on almost every topic, even with a glaring falsehood that Trump did all he could to save the Affordable Care Act, that he and other Republicans have given the derisive label of “Obamacare,” when in fact Trump did everything he could to weaken and destroy President Obama’s signature piece of legislation, and key to his legacy, and even filed a lawsuit, that was later thrown out.

Blaming the nation’s lack of affordable housing on immigration, all illegal, and overlooking the fact that Haitian immigrants, especially in Ohio, a state he represents, are legally in this country under the Temporary Protected Status program..

Migrants were in fact, in Vance’s opinion, responsible for all of the ills of American society, and Walz’s truth telling did no good, as Vance was playing to his base, or to use a church held term, “preaching to the choir.”

In the scheme of things, vice presidential debates don’t count for much, save some memorable lines between Dan Quayle and Lloyd Bentsen, when the former claimed that he had a much experience as Jack Kennedy, and Bentsen famously quipped that he knew “Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine and senator you're no Jack Kennedy.”

Walz, for the most part, was error free with the glaring exception of misrepresenting Trump’s stance on contraception, and one that he has changed his position over the decades, along with abortion and seeing that it is a winning issue for Democrats is now embracing contraception and IVF 

Of all the moments in the debate this showed Walz as his strongest and he categorically denied that doctors in Minnesota could end the life of a 9 month old baby after an abortion.

Before we cite the record from our friends at factcheck.org, let’s shake our collective heads in disbelief as Vance continuously pounded on Harris as if she was president, and ignoring the fact that vice presidents are not policy makers, don’t create executive actions, don’t create policy ,and don’t rule in a country where there is the rule of law, but that did not stop him from uttering such nonsensical lines as, “why didn’t Kamala Harris do. . . “ and :”Why not do them now?”

Of note, Harris never held the title of “Border Czar” and was only tasked by Biden to examine the root causes of immigration from the Southern Border; and, neither she, nor any president or vice president set grocery prices.

Was this another cudgel to beat the vice president, or was it a tactical admission that she might just win the presidency, and that he is rehearsing his stump speech in the future?

As promised, some fact checking of the debate from Factcheck.org:

“Vance claimed that housing “is totally unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans for scarce homes.” But economists and housing experts say that the primary reason for the tight housing market is the decline in new residential construction that followed the Great Recession.

Walz misleadingly linked former President Donald Trump’s tax cuts to “an $8 trillion increase in the national debt, the largest ever.” But trillions of that debt were due to bipartisan COVID-19 relief packages. And the debt increase so far under the Biden administration is nearly as high.

In describing an abortion law Walz signed in Minnesota, Vance said physicians were no longer required to provide life-saving care to infants “born alive.” But he neglected to say that the law still requires such infants to be given proper medical care and be “accorded immediate protection under the law.” Such cases pertain to situations involving induced labor for medical reasons such as fetal abnormalities.

Vance claimed that “we have 320,000 children that the Department of Homeland Security has effectively lost.” An August inspector general report said about that many unaccompanied minors who illegally entered the U.S. had not shown up for immigration court between fiscal years 2019 and 2023, or had not received a summons to appear in court. The report did not say they were “lost.”

Walz falsely claimed that “their” Project 2025 will establish a registry of pregnancies, referring to what might happen under a Trump-Vance administration. However, the Trump campaign has disavowed Project 2025. The conservative document advocates mandatory state reporting of abortions and miscarriages, but not the tracking of pregnancy in general.

Walz said that Project 2025 “is going to make it more difficult, if not impossible, to get contraception and limit access, if not eliminate access, to infertility treatments.” Some policies in the document could in effect limit contraception and infertility treatments, but Trump has said he does not want to restrict access to contraception and that he would expand access to in vitro fertilization.

Vance incorrectly claimed the U.S. has the “cleanest economy,” while falsely hinting that carbon emissions might not be driving climate change. 

Vance claimed that because of Vice President “Kamala Harris’ open border, we’ve seen a massive influx in the number of illegal guns run by the Mexican drug cartels.” But the concern of the U.S. and Mexican governments has been American-made guns trafficked from the U.S. to Mexico.

Walz said “less than 2%” of the border wall that Trump promised “got built.” That undersells the amount of wall built during the Trump administration relative to what was promised.

Vance blamed Harris for “letting in … 25 million illegal aliens.” That’s a grossly exaggerated figure.

Walz countered that illegal border “crossings are down compared to when Donald Trump left office,” which is true when comparing the last two months to the last two months under Trump. But looking at Harris’ entire time as vice president, illegal border crossings are up substantially.

Vance claimed that Harris “let fentanyl into our communities at record levels.” That’s not clear. The amount of fentanyl seized by border officials has increased during the Biden administration, which may indicate that more fentanyl is crossing the border undetected.

Walz said that the “last 12 months saw the largest decrease in opioid deaths in our nation’s history.” Provisional data show that reported opioid deaths have declined significantly in the 12 months ending in April. But the figure is still higher than it was at the start of the Biden-Harris administration.

Vance claimed that Trump “could have destroyed” the Affordable Care Act, but instead “worked in a bipartisan way to ensure that Americans had access to affordable care.” Trump did try to destroy the ACA, including by backing a lawsuit that would have nullified it.

Walz said that if Trump had repealed the ACA “you lose your preexisting conditions,” adding that if you’ve “got asthma, too bad.” Ending the law would significantly reduce protections for those with preexisting conditions, but before the ACA, employer-based plans couldn’t deny issuing a policy.

Vance slightly overstated the inflation rate for groceries under Biden and ignored macroeconomic causes for rising prices when blaming Biden and Harris for food inflation.

Walz claimed that “Donald Trump hasn’t paid any federal tax in the last 15 years,” but that’s not quite right. The former president didn’t pay federal income taxes in 2020, but he did pay various amounts between 2015 and 2018. Trump also did not pay taxes in 10 of the 15 years before he became president.”

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