One day at a time with June Jobs Report

Thursday’s release of the Jobs Report for June by the US Labor Dept, provided a surprise showing of only 57,000 non-farm jobs giving some observers, including economists, as well as lawmakers, concerns, since 110,000 were predicted; and, with the revisions to April and May, there was increased concern about the overall economy.

While one report is not a predictor, the added complexity has created equal concern for the markets and later actions of the Federal Reserve Bank at its meeting later this month.

Reactions have been mixed: “Overall, this report shows a job market that is a bit shakier than the May data had indicated, but inflation still remains too high,” said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, reported The Hill.

Inflation is the boogeyman and at 4.2 percent, it has become a significant factor in how middle and lower income American families feel about the economy, and as we’ve reported the last few months, it is still a K shaped economy, with those at the lowest bar struggling to afford rent and groceries although there is slightly less concern with the lowered gas prices - about 50 cents less - than before the Israeli-American led war against Iran, but with the fragile understanding, and disagreement about progress by Iran, that outlook could change.

Supporting the more positive view of the economy, “The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of 48.9, although it remained slightly below forecasts of 50,” but Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu reported that, “. . .  sentiment remains in unfavorable territory at 13% below the February 2026 reading prior to the start of the Iran conflict, and nearly 20% less than a year ago. The cost of living remains at the forefront of consumers’ minds; for the third straight month, over half of consumers spontaneously mentioned that high prices are weighing down their personal finances.”

Wages are now at a 0.3 percent increase of 13 cents totaling $37.64 but it’s not enough to keep up with the rate of inflation, “Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5 percent. In June,average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $32.38,” BLS noted.

Of equal concern is the labor participation rate that sank to 0.3 percent, 61.5 percent, a figure closely watched by the Feds, and of concern for economists as it takes course among the financial markets as a bellwether of its confidence.

"June job gains slowed but did not collapse and unemployment edged lower for the wrong reason. That doesn’t do much to reassure new grads but job gains are still well above last year -- the threshold is low and wages have gotten sticky. Those gains are reinforcing the floor under service inflation, which will further agitate hawks at the Fed. Financial market hopes that the Fed will not hike in response to the report are misplaced -- we still expect two hikes by year end. July was not an active meeting for a rate hike in our forecast,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG U.S to Investing.com.

Adding to the plurality of opinions is Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO who added that,"Combining (the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) with other data in the report -- including a dip in labor force participation to 61.5% and 3.5% earnings growth -- suggests that the supply-side of the labor force was the primary driver for the miss in job creation. As to implications for Fed policy, this should dampen market expectations for a rate hike this year -- a scenario I have argued was a misreading of the Fed’s likely stance."

“It can be simultaneously true that employers are adding jobs amid a fairly stable labor market and you are having trouble finding work,” explained Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet.

“Paired with the very real affordability constraints brought on by inflation and right now could be a painful time for the 7 million people who are out of work.”

While statistics might be seen as less of a concern outside the statistical stratosphere of the BLS, the 4.2 unemployment rate belies many other worries, but there is hope among others, and “Gregory Daco, the chief economist at EY, a consulting firm, said he anticipates job growth will stabilize at approximately 70,000 per month for the rest of the year, and the unemployment rate may edge up, but only slightly,” according to The New York Times.

Add to the picture, one of caution, with most people staying in their jobs, rather than seeking out a new one for fear of failing to find another.

The White House must be watching all of this with cautious optimism considering the low polls of President Trump’s handling of the economy, a June 2026 NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll, said only 33% of Americans approved of how Trump is handling the economy, his lowest-ever economic approval rating on the issue since Marist began asking the question in 2019; yet ,“Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said the jobs report “reinforces that the American labor market remains solid thanks to President Trump’s economic agenda. In his post on social media, he called particular attention to the slight uptick in manufacturing jobs last month.”

A look at the prime age employment (ages 25 to 54) ratio of 80.2 for June is especially troublesome, and along with their LFP loss of 83.3 that falling rate combined with the overall rate of 0.6 percentage points, seems as if might be an outlier, “the biggest one-month drop since 2009, outside the pandemic plunge. The number comes from the survey of households, which is more volatile than the business survey, and it’s possible (even likely) that the figure was a fluke and will reverse next month. But it’s a very odd reading, especially after a period of remarkable stability in the measure,” opined The Times.

“The leading reasons why prime-age adults (ages 25–54) are not in the labor force are care-giving responsibilities and personal health issues or disabilities. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS) and independent polling, these two factors account for nearly 72% of the reasons why prime-age adults opt out of looking for work,”

Child care, especially compared with other countries, where subsidies are often the norm, combined with the high cost of American healthcare are credible reasons and with recent changes to coverage for many people, a choice between trying to work but finding less opportunities and with most employed people staying put, it’s easy to see, that for some, especially with a wage earning spouse, or partner, might result in this change of 720,000 people leaving the workforce.

While leisure and hospitality took a hit, not getting the expected World Cup bump, professional and business services gained, and in areas where AI was expected to decimate, it did not occur. That increase of 36,000 might not be a predictor, but it shows that the AI degeneration that many have feared is not here yet.

Health care increased at 22,000, although at a slower pace than seen before the previous 12 months at 38,000.

Again, one report is not a predictor, but the analysis of the June report along with the revision of March to 129,000 from 172,000 and April from 176,000 to 143,000, even accepting revisions as standard procedure is giving some economists pause, but especially with that drop in labor participation, from the household survey which gives a more accurate portrayal of American jobs than the business survey, the next quarter will bear watching.

Fed keeps rates the same because of rising inflation

On Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve released an unexpected announcement that US interest rates would remain in the same target range, between 3.50 and 3.75 percent, a move that reflects the high rate of inflation, 4.2 percent -  the highest rate since April of 2023. Add to that the recent May jobs report of 172,000 jobs, the die was cast for stasis.

"Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy," the FOMC said.

Significantly, this was also the first report under the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, who was nominated by President Trump as a direct move to cut interest rates, (which the former chair Jerome Powell refused to do using standard macroeconomic metrics), so Wednesday also brought a closer look at Warsh, who has changed both the tone of his post meeting remarks; and, has diluted the predictive “dot plot” which previously has shown possible future Fed actions: but that’s not all, Warsh also has created several task force committees that seem a generation away from his baby boomer predecessor.

Another significant change was that there was almost near unanimous support for the stasis, and even with some members diverging in how much of an increase, it reflects a recognition of the economic reality of the world’s largest economy, and its reaction to what, and how the Fed manages their dual mandate of full employment and inflation at 2 percent, a standard that Warsh seems to have drifted away from in his later remarks.

Of course, the elephant in the room is the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran to end the war that has affected, or sustained the costs of energy prices. With that in mind, Monday’s news that Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz has eased the price of regular gasoline prices down by 50 cents per gallon, but still a dollar higher than it was before the war began in February. 

Trump was under a great deal of pressure to get the Strait open before energy prices rose even further, and to calm the stock markets, at least for the time being; with critics noting that Iran has a powerful tool in the future, should there be greater pressure from the US or Israel. But, for the time being it seems to be smooth sailing.

Setting sail in a new direction is Warsh, and CBS News reported that, “The so-called easing bias — a sentence in recent FOMC policy statements signaling the central bank was leaning toward cutting interest rates — was removed from the June guidance, which was significantly slimmer than the typical statement.” 

"You might have already noticed something, a difference in today's policy statement," Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said in a press conference to discuss the Fed's latest interest rate decision. "It's a bit shorter, a bit simpler and it dispenses with some older language. That statement just gives you the facts as best we can judge it."

This will be a closely watched feature at future meetings and also under examination are “what economists expect to be a major shift in the Fed's communication practices, including the aforementioned circumspect policy statements and lesser forward guidance. 

That said, the new task forces are causing scrutiny to review how it handles or assesses “issues ranging from communications to inflation data,” but some analysts and economists are wondering what exactly those words will mean in the future and if there is a political message emanating from the White House.

It may be too early to tell, but with as with all current political events, and remarks, hinging on the November midterms for Republicans to keep their majority, we have this from Warsh: "If I saw somebody in the grocery store, what I would say to them is that we cannot have a very significant effect on particular prices, the price of oil in the markets today, or even the price of a dozen eggs," and Warsh continued."But it's to make sure that those changes in oil or beef or eggs or milk don't broaden in the economy, don't have second and third effects,” adding that, "We're going to deliver on it."

If Warsh is going to work with the White House, as expected, then that will be a tough slog with nearly 80 percent of Americans disapproving of Trump’s handling of the economy.

Returning to that statement, without uncertainty, or even affordability, the stated goals for these task forces are “addressing the Fed’s communications, its balance sheet, its reliance on data sources, productivity and jobs, and the central bank’s inflation “frameworks.” 

As anyone who follows Washington knows, the creation of white papers, task forces, and committees can be a place where legislation goes to die, so observers are wondering what will be the result of these goals.

Speculation is often the bulwark of Washington, and with the possibility of the evaporating “dot plots”, it runs rampant, so we have this from The New York Times:

“The dot plot had fewer entries than usual. Mr. Warsh confirmed he was the only official who did not submit any projections, while another policymaker opted against submitting projections just for 2028. Mr. Warsh has argued that Fed officials should speak less frequently and forgo providing specific guidance about where rates may be headed in the near term to avoid limiting their ability to pivot if the economic backdrop changes.”

An analysis of the possible meanings of this are wondering if this is a case of being quiet and carrying a big stick? Is the stick coming from the White House?

 

In one of his atypical comments the president did say, in contrast to an earlier Oval Office statement when the new inflation report was released, "I love it. The numbers were great. You know what I really love? I love the inflation," but when asked about the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates, President Trump told reporters, “It’s alright, whatever.”

“Trump later expounded a bit more, when queried about the prospect of a rate hike soon. “It could happen. It’s hard to believe. It just keeps our country down. It’s so unusual.”

“But in a sign of a changed tone on the part of the president, he then said this of Warsh: “We have a very good guy over there now, so I’m guided by what he wants to do.”

The Times did expand on what an interpretation might be noting, “Rising inflation and a steady policy rate translate to a lower inflation-adjusted or “real” interest rate, meaning the Fed is not restraining the economy as much as it once was. That risks making the Fed’s inflation problem even worse, especially at a time when the labor market has strengthened and the economy more broadly is holding up well.”

With several factors looming on the horizon, ending a war, rising inflation, a resilient American jobs market and political maelstroms, plus a central bank possibly beholden to the executive, it’s a very long road ahead for price control, and even harder for working American families.

Boom or bust for May Jobs report?

There was an old chewing gum commercial in the 1960s with the jingle of “double your pleasure double your fun.” and that seems to apply to the May jobs report released on Friday by the US Labor Department showing a gain of 172,000 non-farm jobs, a figure that was nearly double what economists had predicted, and giving once more, the label of resilience of American labor.

One aspect that gave a welcome tweak to the good news was that there was a broad inroad to jobs beyond health care that extended to both manufacturing and local government employment. But, while this was welcome news, another aspect was that people were staying on the unemployment line longer, and while new jobless claims had not statistically increased, those sitting on the bench have been a cause of concern for the future.

“The share of unemployed workers who have been out of work for 27 weeks or more rose to 27.5% in May, up from 20.4% a year ago and well-above pre-pandemic norms. The situation for many unemployed job seekers is grim, even in the midst of impressive monthly job gains,” said the Hiring Lab in its assessment of the May report.

It’s still a low fire, low hire environment, but with one fell swoop of the cards from further inflation, now at 3.8 percent, the scales could easily tip into recession; and, coupled with the uncertain outcome of the US-Israel war against Iran the effects on the national economy, and jobs could prove precarious.

Turning again to the Hiring Lab they offered this cautionary note:

“This kind of equilibrium can’t hold indefinitely. A market frozen between low hiring and low firing is only stable as long as nothing pushes on it. Should demand soften, the lack of hiring leaves no cushion to reabsorb workers who lose their jobs, and what now reads as a quiet labor market could tip into a rising unemployment rate quickly. The low-hire, low-fire dynamic has been remarkably durable, but durability isn’t permanence. The longer it persists, the more it’s worth watching for the first sign of which direction it finally breaks.”

When the Federal Open Markets Committee meets later this month it will be the first test of the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh to see if he bends to the will of President Trump who wants rate cuts, or will he according to the standards of macro economics increase rates in light of these job numbers, especially considering the revisions to the April report. 

“If Chair Warsh pushes for cuts at his first meeting, he will be pushing against the evidence,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

We still are seeing a mixed bag in the report not only with these concerns but also with wages that have seen a rise but much of that increase will be spent by working families on the increasing higher costs of housing, groceries, and of course, gasoline which has, on the average, since the beginning of the war in February increased to $1.25 per gallon.

Economists are worried about “the 55% rise in the price of diesel fuel, which is used in shipping, farming, transportation and construction. It can quickly raise costs for consumers as the higher price is passed down across a number of industries.”

The cost of diesel fuel which as the New York Times reported in late March, is less discernible to the average consumer but whose price has climbed faster than the price of gasoline with the war, which could lead “to inflation across a wide range of goods” affecting the price and shipping of those products that most Americans rely on.

“Diesel powers a lot of basic industries,” said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University’s business school whose research focuses on supply chains. “Mining industries, chemical factories, clothing factories — a lot of those things come from diesel.”

“Because of its far-reaching consequences, it can stop a lot of industries,” she said, adding that if prices continue to rise, consumers will probably begin to see the effects on everyday items and necessities within the next several weeks.”

“Much of the diesel in the United States comes from domestic supplies. But oil companies can still price the commodity at global market rates. In January, a little more than 40 percent of the cost of diesel came from the price of crude oil, according to the Energy Information Administration” making things even murkier for consumers as time goes by without an end to the conflict.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remains at 4,3 percent, but, as we've stated before, this is only a snapshot in time, and other factors must be taken into consideration: as NBC News reported, “Average hourly earnings rose 3.4% from a year ago. According to Jennifer Timmerman, an analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, that’s the lowest since 2021. In April, inflation sharply jumped to a 3.8%, its highest level in three years, due to the surging price of gasoline and the resulting economic ripple effect.”

Another worrisome statistic is that “Wholesale inflation — what businesses pay other businesses for goods and services — surged to 6% in April, according to BLS data released May 13. That was sharply higher than the 4.3% in March,” they added.

In a later report, at the middle of June, BLS reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 in May, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2 percent over the last twelve months with energy prices over 7 percent  with the jump in  gasoline paces. The Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices rose to  0,2 percent, and on an annual basis to 2.9 percent, creating further economic dilemma to American working families.

Wage growth slowed to 3.5 percent in May compared to April which showed 3.6 percent and that is a figure worth watching. And it’s common knowledge that a dollar doesn't buy what it used to factor in the Trump tariffs and the price of beef, especially ground beef, a staple of the American diet, shows increased prices, just in time for backyard barbecues, a warm weather staple for entertaining. Add to that the morning dose of java, those coffee tariffs are not helping with the daily grind.

For those that follow the market, “After the report, U.S. government bond yields surged and stocks sold off. Fed rate futures also quickly indicated that traders are now projecting a more than 60% chance of a rate hike in October and a more than 98% chance by December’s Fed meeting.”

Waiting may not be an option, said Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said on Tuesday, preceding Friday’s report,”“If we wait for definitive evidence that high inflation has become embedded in the economy, it may require larger policy adjustments, at greater cost."

The White House was overjoyed with the report, especially considering the sinking polls for Trump and his handling of the economy, and “I think that basically what we’re seeing is an enormous amount of positive momentum in hiring,” Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, said on CNBC Friday morning.

Asked about wage growth tracking below inflation, Hassett deflected concerns on Bloomberg Television, saying that “real wages are going up on average about $3,000 since President Trump took office.”

Once again, driving labor gains over the last year was education and healthcare some of the largest contributors to job growth in May but there were surprises as well, with an unexpected gain of 70,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality, “well above the average monthly gain of 14,000 over the prior 12 months,” BLS said.

NBC reported that PNC Bank chief economist Gus Faucher noted that “the breadth of job growth has picked up in 2026.” He added that “in 2025 there were net job losses in all industries outside of healthcare, but in 2026 those industries are seeing net job growth.”

Local governments also saw job gains but in the last several months there has been a total loss of 350,000 federal jobs and many former workers are gravitating to take their experience to local governments.

One possible theory, and it’s purely speculative, is from The New York Times noted is that “construction, which has been trending up since last fall amid a massive buildup in data centers to serve the A.I. boom. Adam Schickling, an economist with Vanguard, thinks the unseasonably warm spring may have also played a role jump-starting hiring in fields dependent on weather changes.” and he added, “That is essentially something you ultimately pay back in one form or another. You’re hiring people earlier, so then you’re not hiring that person later,” he said. “I think it’s still really early to suggest that there’s a reacceleration in the labor market.”

Slowing to a crawl are financial services, including information technology to 22,000 jobs, “and the transportation/warehousing industry. That sector is “down by 92,000 [jobs] since reaching a peak in February 2025,” the agency said.”

One particular aspect that represents another cautionary note is that, as Axios reported,  “The economy has averaged gains of 114,000 jobs per month so far this year, a far cry from the 10,000 monthly average added in 2025.”

May did give some blockbusting numbers, but it’s a party that might have an end in a few months. With inflation, both consumer and wholesale, against a background of uncertainty with the US and Israel war, and as a result, with climbing fuel costs, and a host of other related factors, plus  lowered wages, the American economy gets, in our estimate, a B minus.

On Monday June 15 the Trump administration announced a memorandum of understanding with Iran towards a cease fire of 60 days and an end of week opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but international observers and economists are leery of the announcement, noting that Israel has not agreed to the deal, and that even if the Strait does reopen it will take months for price regulation to presume pre war price controls due to severe disruption of the international supply chain.

Updated 16 June 2026

December Jobs Report: mild with clouds ahead

The times they are a changing said an old song, but Friday's job report from the US Dept. of Labor said otherwise with a barely changed jobs outlook for the American economy from December with 50,000 non farm jobs created scarcely changed from the prior month; and, with a modest expectation of 53,000 jobs, stasis has set in, even though uncertainty still reigns, and with the accompanied 4,4 percent unemployment rate the US is showing resilience in the face of extreme cautiousness by employers making only the most modest and necessary hiring.

Continuing along this path are the heavy hitters of health care catering to the aging population of baby boomers joined by high income earners, as we saw last month, still bankrolling restaurants and bars, despite lower alcohol consumption. But, the good times are only a deception since there have been less than 50,000 jobs created since January 2025, and this alone has become a cause of concern for economists as they watch employment to population growth, and see a deficit.

“At this point, we have to be concerned about the strength of the labor market. Total job creation at less than 0.5% is extremely rare in recent history outside of recessions or the jobless recovery of the early 2000’s. This far into an economic expansion, it’s essentially unheard of,” wrote Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a left-leaning non-profit,” reported The Hill.

Perhaps ominously, he added, ““Combined with the persistent concerns over cost-of-living, a weak labor market could tip the economy into a contraction.”

That brings us to the entanglement of politics and the economy, and one which President Trump said he would fix on the campaign trail and that in the near year since he was sworn into office has not materialized with inflation still hovering at 2.6 percent and persistently high costs of housing and groceries.

Of course, no president controls the economy like the Wizard of Oz as we've stated before, but sitting in the Oval office they have to take it on the chin when costs are elevated, and the polls are showing that Trump is getting negatives in the 30s, while critics have pointed out that he seems more intent on foreign affairs, under the banner of economic gains, but how that will materialize on Main Street, as well as Wall Street is an open question,

There are hopes for lower and abundant gas to fuel America’s love affair with motor vehicles but investors and economists have said that sourcing Venezuelan oil with the removal of President Nicolas Maduro may be more hope than reality with a moribund infrastructure, safety concerns, among many others.

Affordability is the new buzzword when discussing the economy in the US and the high cost of housing, both rental and mortgages, has escalated fears in all but the most well heeled consumer; and, even administration officials are worried about the foreign focus especially with the departure of Trump stalwart Marjorie Taylor Green, and her dire warning of the prospect of the Republicans losing the Congressional dominance in the upcoming midterms over the high cost of living for American working families,

There are some who feel more positive and The New York Times wrote that “Most analysts expect that this momentum moderated in the last three months of 2025. But they still expect growth in the $30 trillion U.S. economy will register a respectable pace in 2026 — above 2 percent — even as serious concerns about housing affordability and the general cost of living persist.”

We are looking at “a series of barometers for Mr. Trump’s second term, during which the president has pursued an agenda of wide-scale deregulation, generous corporate tax cuts, punishing global tariffs, tougher border enforcement and a full-scale restructuring of the federal bureaucracy. That effort alone resulted in the loss of roughly 277,000 jobs from the ranks of government last year.”

Are all of these pieces, as the Times noted, able to cobble together the economy? The absence of an end game has caused worry and concentration in many corners,

Reflecting that worry makes for some searching looks and a less than optimistic, if not pessimistic outlook and “Those policy decisions — immigration, tariff, trade — are probably central to the slowdown that we’ve seen, particularly if you’re comparing it to the last two years or so,” said Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. economic research for Fitch Ratings,” he told the Times.

“It’s not going to be a boom by any means. It’s not going to be a bust by any means,” he said.

Contrast this with what, “In a series of posts on social media, the Council of Economic Advisers said that the jobs figures from December underscored a “a stable labor market where workers’ purchasing power has been improving due to pay increases outpacing inflation.”

“Kevin A. Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, later told CNBC that the hiring numbers “look a little bit different than every other indicator that we have.”

It’s our belief that the White House is looking nervously over their shoulders as they try to manage a full plate, and predictions from those previously cited are reflecting uncertainty wrapped in hope. And, adding to it, Hassett said there is "A heck of a lot of economic growth, and it doesn’t necessarily have to mean a whole huge amount of job creation.”

Of equal concern is “The unemployment rate for young people, between the ages of 16 and 24, appears to have mellowed out after steadily rising from a 2023 low. It’s now at 10.4 percent, down slightly from November. Economists have been particularly concerned about this group, entering the labor market at a time when hiring has been extremely sluggish even though few people are getting laid off.”

When colleges hand out diplomas in May and June, the time for graduates to gain full employment will be further watched closely; and, even last year’s graduates are pessimistic about getting full time employment, seeking marriage, starting a family and buying that first home, with many interviewed stating that home ownership may be merely a dream.

The unemployment rate for Black workers has dropped  by seven tenths of a point, to 7.5 percent, reversing November gains. Even with gains and losses that the data tracks, it’s clear that  the rate of unemployment at the end of 2024, was 6.1 percent at the end of 2024. And as reported by the Times “Black workers are still roughly twice as likely to be unemployed as white workers.”

Fortune Magazine had noted that “Official unemployment numbers also disguise the depth of the crisis. Black women’s unemployment rate rose from 5.4% in February to 7.5% in September—already more than two points above what the Federal Reserve considers “full employment.” But when accounting for the hundreds of thousands of women pushed out of the labor force entirely since 2020, the real unemployment rate for Black women is 10.23%.”

Concentrated in lower wage jobs such as food service health care, think nursing assistants in care facilities, and retail, Black women’s employment is gaining in these areas but with much lower wages than other roles, “Even within health care, Black women face some of the largest racial and gender pay gaps. Meanwhile, Black women lost 1,500 jobs in government, a more stable and higher-paying sector, and saw zero gains in finance, transportation, or professional services. In short, they are gaining jobs where wages are lowest and losing them where wages are better,” Fortune added.

“Overall, the details of this survey are very encouraging,” wrote Thomas Simons, an economist with Jefferies, in a note to clients. “The slack in the labor market that emerged during the spring and summer looks more and more like a temporary response to the tariff announcements than a fundamental shift in the labor market.:

The Federal Reserve Bank is again in a tight spot, with many saying a pause in future rate cuts,even as far out as April seem unlikely as the focus in reducing inflation will be their goal despite the tepid report from December, a move bound to anger the present who wants deep cuts to at least three percent, and while Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, has said he will stay; but, on Sunday it was also reported by the Times that, “The U.S. attorney’s office in the District of Columbia has opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Mr. Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project, according to officials briefed on the situation.

The inquiry, which includes an analysis of Mr. Powell’s public statements and an examination of spending records, was approved in November by Jeanine Pirro, a longtime ally of President Trump who was appointed to run the office last year, the officials said.”

In a video taped rebuttal Powell said. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” and added “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

November Jobs Report is shaken, but not stirred

Continuing the slowdown for the American job market the Labor Department released November employment figures on Tuesday consistent with what we have seen for the last several months: the US took a loss of 106,000 jobs, and a gain of only 64,000 jobs with an unemployment figure of 4.6 percent the largest seen in four years; but, due to the government shutdown it does not contain the usual snapshot, and some economists see the figures as shaky with the lack of not only the snapshot, but also the data collection from the household survey, methods lacking the necessary detail due to shutdown delays.

Methodology is at the forefront of blow-back from the White House touting the success of the American economy and the increased proliferation of native born workers, an assertion consistent with the Trump administration's goals of immigrant removal both legal, and illegal.

CNN reported that “The White House on Tuesday touted the latest employment figures as a sign of a “strong, American First economy,” highlighting gains in the private sector:

“Since President (Donald) Trump took office, 100% of the job growth has come in the private sector and among native-born Americans — exactly where it should be,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote Tuesday.” 

“Private-sector businesses have indeed driven job growth this year while public sector employment has declined – entirely because of steep federal workforce cuts by the Trump administration. From January through November, the US economy added 499,000 jobs: The private sector added 687,000 jobs and the government (federal, state and local) shed 188,000 jobs.”

With the midterm elections upcoming in a matter of months the administration is determined to show that there are job gains for the US, but as CNN added, “However, the pace of job growth has fallen off: The year-to-date employment gains – overall and private-sector – are the weakest since 2020 and, before that, the Great Recession.

Additionally, it’s impossible to attribute the monthly employment gains reported widely from the jobs report to any particular nativity or documentation status – labor force and demographic statistics are drawn from an entirely different survey than the monthly payroll numbers."

While some economists and observers see this as a shell game by the White House, it’s a sure bet with high stakes at maintaining a lead in the US House of Representatives they will want to put a best foot forward on what is a slowly leaking jobs market.

While the DOGE decimation of federal payrolls gave a strong hit to the report, combined with more workers holding part-time jobs because they could not find full-time work increased to 8.7%, its highest since August 2021, a concerning fact.

According to CNBC, “The October slump came from a steep fall in government employment as deferred layoffs instituted earlier this year took effect. Government payrolls were off 162,000 for the month, and fell an additional 6,000 in November."

Once again, the heavy hitters were health care, adding 46,000 jobs, with more than 70% of the total net increase, and construction added 28,000, while the umbrella label of social assistance showed 18,000.

It was also reported, “On the down side, transportation and warehousing was off 18,000, part of a continuing trend in job losses for the sector. Leisure and hospitality also posted a loss of 12,000.”

A significant reason for the steady and reliable hiring increases in health care are America’s aging population, and their reliable needs.

While hiring has slowed and in some cases been eliminated, the Trump White House paints a glowing picture: “The strong jobs report shows how President Trump is fixing the damage caused by Joe Biden and creating a strong, America First economy in record time,” Leavitt said in a statement adding that “Workers’ wages are rising, prices are falling, trillions of dollars in investments are pouring into our country, and the American economy is primed to boom in 2026.”

The Federal Reserve in creating a rate cut had a difficult path to follow and

the dilemma that Powell has faced, as we have noted many times before, is the balancing act between meeting the mandate of full employment with 2 percent inflation.

Inflation has rebounded from earlier years when it was over 3 percent, especially in the post pandemic world, the current rate is still high; and, is especially felt by low income Americans during their weekly grocery shopping;with many feeling that the president has not kept his campaign promise of lowering those prices, inasmuch as any president can.

“The Fed is unlikely to put much weight on today’s report given data disruptions,” said Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. To CNBC, noting that,“The report on December’s employment data, released in early January ahead of the next meeting, will likely be a much more meaningful indicator for the Fed when it comes to deciding the near-term policy trajectory.”

Thursday offered a glimmer of hope with the CPI report that strips out volatile food and energy costs, and according to Yahoo Finance,“Inflation pressures eased more than expected in November, according to the latest data on consumer prices published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% over the prior year in November, less than the 3.1% increase that had been expected by economists, according to Bloomberg estimates.”

However, there is a cautionary note, “This looks like positive news overall, but the lack of detail and the absence of data collection during the shutdown introduce a degree of skepticism that’s hard to ignore," wrote Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch Ratings, in an email after the report,” but added that “Tariff pass through remains muted, even as companies stocked up on holiday imports facing higher duties. The Fed will welcome that trend, given its recent focus on cutting rates to support a softer labor market."

In his Wednesday night address to the nation, the president said, “Very importantly, there are more people working today than at any time in American history. And 100 percent of all jobs created since I took office have been in the private sector. Think of that, 100 percent of all jobs have been in the private sector rather than government, which is the only way to make a country powerful and great."

As was expected he trashed former President Biden and his handling of the economy, immigration and that the rest of the world laughed at us, and while we will leave the majority of fact checking to others, to say that Trump was on a stretch would not be an exaggeration.

“Already, I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States, which means jobs, wage increases, growth, factory openings and far greater national security. Much of this success has been accomplished by tariffs, my favorite word, tariffs, which for many decades have been used successfully by other countries against us, but not anymore.”

Tariffs have been the core of uncertainty by the nation’s employers and while the full effect may not be seen until January, this current fear can be seen in the November jobs report.

Taking a closer look,”Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% for the month, below the estimate for 0.3%, and were up 3.5% from a year ago, the smallest annual gain since May 2021,” and "The 0.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate was largely a function of labor force growth.”

“The strong jobs report shows how President Trump is fixing the damage caused by Joe Biden and creating a strong, America First economy in record time,” Leavitt said in a statement, stating that, “Workers’ wages are rising, prices are falling, trillions of dollars in investments are pouring into our country, and the American economy is primed to boom in 2026.”

Steady consumer spending has been seen by high income earners, and while inflation has rebounded from earlier years when it was over 3 percent, especially in a post pandemic world, the current rate is still high, and is especially felt by low income Americans during their weekly grocery shopping; and, many are feeling that the president has not kept his campaign promise of lowering those prices, inasmuch as any president can.

A recent PBS/NPR/Marist poll showed Trump taking a direct hit by Americans who feel that he has failed them, with 55 percent of those polled disapproving of the way he is handling the economy.