Win, lose or draw: Trump versus Harris

After what has seemed an eternity, the 2024 presidential election is here. In the closely held contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, it’s game on, and the stakes are high for Trump is seeking not only to regain the Oval Office, but a return to the tenets of his previous term:  anti immigration, anti trans rights, anti civil rights for Black Americans and name calling plus shaming and profaning all who oppose him.

Harris is looking for a restoration, of sorts, of the ideals last espoused by former President Barack Obama, taking a humanist stance that serves the public with an enhancement of American values: equality for all, immigration reform, common sense gun reform laws, economic justice and reproductive rights to name but a few.

In the aftermath of the candidate’s televised debate, it would be hard to imagine that the American electorate is still undecided on who to vote for; yet, there are those independent voters estimated to be about 5 percent who are the target of Trump and Harris.

For the last week both candidates have been crisscrossing the battle states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, and Arizona, to name a few, to persuade  those that might give them the winning edge.

Any presidential election is ultimately a numbers game, with 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House, and these last few weeks polls have prompted intensive actions, but while polls have attempted to outdo each other with predictions on the winner, they are not, in fact, predictors.

A look back in history shows a poll that became the infamous headline of the Chicago Daily Tribune which blared, “Dewey defeats Truman” and the photo of a grinning Harry Truman after he won the presidency; all polls are, in and of themselves, a snapshot at a given time of what a slice of the electorate is thinking, not a predictor of outcomes. 

While a liberal, even progressive, ideology has held sway for the Harris camp, it’s the same old playbook for Trump as he brandishes his strongman authoritarian style blaming migrants for every social ill in the United States, accusing them of polluting the bloodlines of Americans, and in an egregious example is the case of Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, which he accuses of abducting and eating pet animals, and ducks, from local waters. 

This is an absolutely false assertion, but it lives large in the playbook, as Trump’s base eats it up; despite his running mate JD Vance admitting in a  CNN interview that it was false, but needed to alert the media of the crisis of illegal immigration, even though the Haitians are legal immigrants under the federal TPS program.

All of thich is a continuation of the politics of fear, as we noted in 2016 when Trump won the presidency:

“His clarion call to a base of angry and older white men - who made up over 60% of his vote, gave credence to the cultural, racial and educational divide that has marked the United States for over two decades. As they watched the progressive and liberal legislators, and legislation, give power to women, blacks, and gays, to their consternation, they voted with near religious fervor on Tuesday. This was indeed, some felt, their last stand to stop the final anathema: a female president, especially, the spouse of the often despised Bill Clinton.”

Harris and the Democrats have tried to counter these lies with factual refutations, yet oftentimes it seems that Trump supporters are willing to ignore the facts. Some wags have called Trump “Teflon Don” for the way these refutations and criticisms have rolled off his back.

The recent hurricanes in Florida and nearby southeastern states have even prompted the lie that the Democrats deliberately caused the hurricane through some type of scientific hocus pocus to prevent Trump supporters in those areas from voting for him, an idea propagated by Georgia lawmaker, Marjorie Taylor Greene,

Immigration Denigration

Trump recently held a rally In New York at Madison Square Garden where he garnered even more negative blowbacks, but this time in response to featured Texas based stand-up comedian Tony Hinchcliffe who made a series of racist statements about Harris, and referred to Puerto Rico, a US possession as a “a floating island of garbage,”and according to The Hill,  “prompting some members of the GOP, like Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who is Puerto Rican, to come out against the remarks.”

To add insult to injury, “the comedian also made a crude joke about Latinos in which he said “they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside. Just like they did to our country.”

It seems self defeating If Trump wants to capture the votes of 36 million Hispanci votes, and the Trump campaign might have just realized that since they have pushed back on Hinchcliffe remarks, and some GOP lawmakers have gone on record, as reported, in protest:

“I’m proud to be Puerto Rican. My mom was born and raised in Puerto Rico,” D’Esposito wrote on the social platform X. “It’s a beautiful island with a rich culture and an integral part of the USA. The only thing that’s ‘garbage’ was a bad comedy set. Stay on message.”

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), who was born in Cuba but raised in part in Puerto Rico, said on X that she was “disgusted” by Hinchcliffe’s remarks. “This rhetoric does not reflect GOP values,” she said to the media.

Also, reported by The Hill: “The Trump campaign, too, has distanced itself from the comedian’s rhetoric. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, said on “Fox & Friends” on Monday that “it was a comedian who made a joke in poor taste.”

“Obviously, that joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or our campaign, and I think it is sad that the media will pick up on one joke that was made by a comedian, rather than the truths that were shared by the phenomenal list of speakers that we had,” she said.

After publicly condemning the remarks, Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, Hinchcliffe replied to Walz with the following statement:

“These people have no sense of humor,” he wrote. “Wild that a vice presidential candidate would take time out of his ‘busy schedule’ to analyze a joke taken out of context to make it seem racist. I love Puerto Rico and vacation there. I made fun of everyone … watch the whole set. I’m a comedian Tim … might be time to change your tampon.”

That’s scant consolation for the voters that the campaign wants to court, and a deflection from insulting a major voting bloc, but one in keeping with how Trump’s people respond to negative press.

Reuters reported that, “Still, some Trump allies were less concerned. The former president and his allies have leaned into personal insults and racist rhetoric in the campaign's final months, but his standing in the polls has not deteriorated.”

Voter Disenfranchisement

Hovering in the background is the specter of voter disenfranchisement that has been a legacy of the pre civil rights area in America with echoes of voter registration drives, the death of three of the “Freedom Riders” and countless civil and federal lawsuits and legislation, that has unfortunately devolved into the US Supreme Court repeal of the preclearance act in 2013, in Shelby County v. Holder, which opened the doors to weakening the Voting rights act of 1965.

Ominously, there have been threats against poll workers, demands for ballot boxes to be broken open and hand counted to “prevent” errors,which would result in more errors, including worker fatigue after a long day.

In a previous post we quoted:  “Aided by technology, conservative groups are pumping out mass challenges to plant falsehoods, and in another battleground state, Michigan”, in random lawsuits.

David Becker, founder and executive director of the center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonpartisan organization that advises local election officials nationwide, told The Reflector, “When you see efforts to do mass challenges in the midst of the presidential primaries and months before a major election, i've got to wonder whether the intent is to create chaos and confusion amongst voters rather than legitimate list maintenance.”

Recent moves by the Georgia election Board to do hand counts, and other measures designed to slow the certification process, disenfranchise voters, and other last minute maneuvers have been blocked by Georgia judges.

With the close election Republicans are desperate to win and have said that foreign nationals will vote in the election with coordination by the Democratic party, and while such falsehoods are being spread, there is no evidence of that; and, the likelihood of a foreign national voting in any election and exposing themselves to fines, and arrest, is a definite barrier, especially to those that might be in the country illegally.

“After the 2016 election, the Brennan Center for Justice, which advocates for voting rights, surveyed local election officials in 42 jurisdictions with high immigrant populations and found just 30 cases of suspected noncitizens voting out of 23.5 million votes cast, or 0.0001%,” reported NPR in late October.

Topping the list of lies that the Trump campaign has promoted is the continuation of the BIG lie that the 2020 election was rigged to put Joe Biden in the White House. 

It’s so pervasive that millions of supporters believe it, and their numbers seem to increase exponentially each week; and  Vance has refused to, even when asked point blank, to tell the truth. In fact, it has become a politically useful falsehood.

Migrants as political tools

Immigration, both legal and illegal has become, over the years, a useful tactic used by the GOP to appeal to its base, and the fear stoked in Trump’s campaign in 2016 that Mexico was sending rapists to the United States has stuck, and has been extended to those seeking asylum from Honduras, El Saalvador and Venezuela has now become the top issue for Republicans.

Notably, it was Texas Gov. Gregg Abbot who sent 102,000 migrants to so-called “sanctuary cities” across the country, and spent $148 million to do so. Using people fleeing from poverty, violence and political instability as pawns increased his profile, but was condemned by many humanitarians, and the governments of those jurisdictions that received them, some of whom, like Chicago, spent $1.5 million each day for their care.

Race had a great deal to do with it, and as one person told us, “You wouldn’t see this as problematic if they had been Swedish,” and noted that Chicago, who struggled to find housing and food for thousands of Venezeuelans and their children, easily accommodated Ukranians, but then they were white not brown.

The consequences of these calculated actions have also resulted in Ohio Haitians facing fear, and in response some schools were closed and some business owners, who hired them, were threatened.

While no one can say that racial prejudice has not been a part of American history, that same history has shown what is known as nativism, seen most prominently in the 1860s during the Draft Riots in New York City in 1863 where Irish immigrants were drafted to fight in the Civil War, rather than the wealthy (who used proxies), and the subsequent mele involved violence and extended to the death of many African Americans as well, identified as the cause for the war draft.

This same level of nativism has continued, not just with Trump and his “America First” platform, but was preceded by the legendary aviator Charles Lindbergh, who along with author Kathleen Norris, and others, first created the term, and the movement.

The politics of fear was writ large with chants  of “Build the Wall” that still resonates with many of the MAGA crowd.

Trump has said that he will use mass deportation to remove migrants and immigrants from the southern border and The Independent has reported that “Donald Trump is considering withholding federal police grants to local agencies that refuse to carry out his mass deportation plan, a report claims,” to skirt possible lawsuits based on their conversations with NBC News.

The Biden-Harris administration has faced enormous challenges in dealing with an increase in migration to the southern border, with some feeling that the new administration would be more tolerant of immigration, and especially those in an urgent need to escape, even crossing the dangerous Darien Gap.

Immigration, which has been noted many times, across several media platforms has been long need of reform and faced its last legislative effort in 1986, and titled, “the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, made it illegal to hire or recruit illegal immigrants, while also legalizing some 2.7 million undocumented residents who entered the United States before 1982.”

A recent bipartisan bill that would have helped start a new path for immigration was defeated by Republicans under Trump’s direct order.

It would have provided, as the Harris campaign has noted, “the strongest reform in decades. The legislation would have deployed more detection technology to intercept fentanyl and other drugs and added 1,500 border security agents to protect our border.”

To be fair, most of the fentanyl that comes to the United States comes through legal points of entry. And, the southern border has also seen not just people from Mexico, Honduras, and El Salvador, but also Southeast Asians, and others.

One aspect of immigration, often neglected by Republicans, was that in 1986, “The law did not provide a legal way for the great number of low-skilled workers wishing to enter the United States. Following this 1986 law, almost 12 million undocumented workers came illegally across the U.S. border. It was estimated that this illegal workforce made up about five percent of the U.S. workforce. It was also estimated that about 70 percent of those illegal workers were from Mexico.”

On the domestic front, many wealthy white households employ a variety of housekeepers, nannies and gardeners, all flying under the radar of local and federal officials. And, critics note that the creation of this shadow employment has also created a permanent underclass.

The social media platform X has been awash in labeling Harris as the “Border Czar,” a title that she never had and was tasked only by Biden to examine the root causes of southern migration, and of which she was filmed telling prospective immigrants, ‘Do not come.”

The Biden administration wrestled with how to stem the flow, and balance legitimate asylum claims, and created a smartphone app for prospective immigrants to apply for admission and asylum, but the program was so “buggy” that it often failed those who needed it the most.

It is stated, through her campaign website, that “As President, she will bring back the bipartisan border security bill and sign it into law. At the same time, she knows that our immigration system is broken and needs comprehensive reform that includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship.”

Abortion

The next, and most salient, issue for the Democrats is abortion, or as properly labeled reproductive care, long an issue of division for the US, but also especially for women a tool of empowerment over their own bodies, especially for problem pregnancies, in which the life of the mother as well as her fetus are endangered.

Harris has been the White House’s public face for efforts to improve maternal health and ensure some abortion access, despite the Supreme Court ruling. Earlier this year, she became the highest-ranking U.S. official to make a public visit to an abortion clinic,” noted The Associated Press,

Trump placed three conservative judges on the Supreme Court, and of them, both very conservative, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh, both Catholic, faced intense scrutiny and in the case of Barrett, an irregular confirmation, shoehorned in by Trump, and the first issue they faced headlong was the repeal of Roe V. Wade in 2022; and, since then over a dozen states have restricted abortion, and while making cases for exceptions, the details can easily cause doctors performing abortions, even to save the life of the mother in legal jeopardy, say those who study abortion. And, those medical emergencies are so narrow in many cases, as we see below, that the Biden administration fought against their definitions.

Harris in her debate with Trump put it succinctly when she said, ““You want to talk about this is what people wanted? Pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term, suffering from a miscarriage, being denied care in an emergency room because health care providers are afraid they might go to jail and she’s bleeding out in a car in the parking lot?”

The reality she stated has been faced by countless women and two died in Georgia because of this very same dilemma, and perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the state of Idaho where the 6 week ban, (when many women don’t even know that they are pregnant) has played out with anguish.

Trump, and the GOP playbook, Project 2025, has at its nadir, the use of the Comstock Law, an 1873 anti vice law that, if used, would outlaw not only the medication used for over two thirds of abortions in the country, Mifepristone, but also threaten the equipment used by clinics “that need to do their jobs,” reported The Guardian.

As a consequence 13 percent of infants die in their first year of life across the US, note researchers.

Of note, Trump has flip flopped on the issue of abortion, and while he has not stated that he would favor a national ban, and said he would veto a national ban, the use of the Comstock Act, he would not not need Congress to enact a national ban.

Joined by lawsuits across the country could use that act to do just that, a ban; and Justice Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, “both brought up the 151 year old law in recent arguments,” The Guardian also reported. 

American voters face a challenge on these issues, and more, and the crowds on both sides of the candidates face a certain level of anxiety on the outcome; but there are predictions and warnings that Trump won’t admit defeat, and instead declare victory even before the votes are counted, a calculated move to help foment violence in a reset of the attacks on the Capitol on January 6th, the day that lives in infamy for many Americans.

On Wednesday November 6th, Donald Trump was declared winner with 270 electoral votes

Updated November 6, 2024

After first debate, concerns grow about Biden

The much anticipated rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the presumed Republican candidate for president in the November 2024 election, the day after their debate garnered headlines the following day when Biden suffering from an obvious head cold tripped over his words, and seemingly lost his train of thought, something that nearly anyone else would have been forgiven, but in less than 72 hours, the national press had a field day saying that his age was an obvious deterrent to continuing his candidacy as the Democratic candidate.

Trump, by contrast, only a few years Biden’s junior, was relatively calm, compared to previous debates in 2020, but was still rolling with lies about immigration, the Southern Border, abortion, inflation, and the economy, yet it was those few gaffes that not only led the media, but also the internet and the social media microblogging site X, formerly known as Twitter.

As we have previously noted, age, which has been carefully studied by psychologists can vary across the spectrum, and while undoubtedly the incumbent and his staff regret those lapses, it's debatable that Bidin is not fit for another term in the White House.

There are some polls that indicate a lack of confidence for some voters and Intelligencer reported on their website that, “According to the results of USA Today–Suffolk’s national poll of 1,000 registered voters (conducted over the weekend), 41 percent of Democrats said Biden should be replaced as the party’s nominee, as did 37 percent of Democrats who said they still planned to vote for him following the debate. Fifty percent of respondents said Trump won the debate, while only 11 percent said Biden won, and, per USA Today’s summary, “when asked an open-ended question about why they thought one candidate or the other had prevailed, most cited either the strength or the weakness of their mental acuity.”

Calls for him to dropout have helped print media, in its prized location, above the fold, and others in the media, smelling blood in the water have leapt to the forefront, but what is notable is that they have largely ignored the lies and falsifications that Trump, appealing to his base, said last Thursday evening.

While it’s unlikely that such a move by Biden will happen already there are names being floated as possible contenders, Gov. Gavin Newsom, of California, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Gov. JB Prtizker of Illinois, Josh Shaprio, former attorney general of Pennsylvania, and Vice President Kamala Harris, who despite low approval ratings, and some early mistakes from Biden, such as giving her a portfolio, similar to his under President Obama, of what The New York Times called “intractable” and “polarizing” issues of “illegal migration and voting rights”, as a seemingly coercive, yet despite those claims, the former prosecutor and senator from California has had a definite upwards shift, not only in stature, but staff to include experienced political operatives.

The traditional Sunday chat shows featured “Maryland Gov. Wes Moore [who] said Sunday that he will not seek the Democratic nomination this year and he does not foresee President Biden leaving the race, making clear that the president is staying the course despite the bruising debate performance that sparked concern among some members of the party last week. 

"Joe Biden is not going to take himself out of this race – nor should he," Moore said on "Face the Nation," making clear that he "will not" seek the nomination.   

The report also noted that, “Moore, a rising star within the party, has been among a group of names floated should Biden leave the race,” but stressed that, "Joe Biden is our nominee, Joe Biden is our leader, and Joe Biden has earned — and Joe Biden deserves — the confidence, the respect, and frankly the partnership that we now have to provide to him." 

There are issues with all of these candidates, the most important being as former Senator Barbara Boxer told the Times,” It’s not as easy as it sounds, being vetted for president is like no other vetting. We don’t know what these people would do.”

What might be the wiser course for the Democrats is to have, not only Harris but other key administration officials fan out across the country to counter the lies that Trump said in the debate. A short list, of which would be:

That he was “the one that got the insulin down for the seniors.”; that “everybody” including not one, but all legal scholars, wanted to end Roe V. Wade; that Biden is fully responsible for inflation; that some states allow for abortions after birth, run, of course, by Democrats; and, of course, his standard punch lines about immigration, that in New York, migrants are being sheltered in luxury hotels, are poisoning the blood of Americans, that Biden is putting all migrants on social security, and that they're being sent by their governments from their prisons, and that there have been nearly 18 million to 20 million sent to the US by the Biden administration, figure that most government officials and researchers put at about one third of that. 

The Associated Press reported that, “Biden appeared to acknowledge the criticism during a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, saying” I don’t debate as well as I used to.” But he added, “I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done.” Speaking for 18 minutes, Biden appeared far more animated than he had the night before as he excoriated Trump for his “lies” and for waging a campaign aimed at “revenge and retribution.”

Fundraising for Biden increased the day of the debate according to his campaign to the tune of $27 million, in an attempt to increase the coffers, and to meet, or outpace Trump whose war chest increased to $141 million on the day he was convicted in a New York courtroom on 34 felony counts, to influence the 2020 election.

Biden himself, speaking at a fundraiser at the home of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said, “I understand the concern after the debate. I get it” and, “I didn’t have a great night. But I’m going to be fighting harder and going to need you with me to get it done.”

Even more succinctly the president added, ““I know I’m not a young man,” Biden said to cheers. “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth!”

Abortion is the issue for GOP, or is it?

The recent court ruling against the medication abortion drug mifepristone has created a firestorm of protest among the drug’s manufacturer and women across the nation, as this unprecedented ruling from the judicial bench on a two-decade old approval from the US Federal Drug  Administration seems to be the latest attack after the Dobbs decision that vacated the right to abortion enshrined in the decades old decision of Roe v. Wade.

Moral implications aside, this latest move is still part and parcel of the burgeoning culture wars between the ultra conservative right and the liberal progressive wing in American political life, but supporting abortion in political life goes much deeper for the Republican party, as it attempts to woo and sustain votes, especially in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The widespread coverage in the media has sparked debates, and legal maneuvers, that give a sustained voice to the issue, yet the depth of concern, supported by supporters of former President Donald Trump, is not the lone voice, as April’s 6-week abortion ban supported by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis gives it a further push. 

Or, does it? 

Abortion rights has the support of both President Biden, and the Democratic Party, and they have campaigned on this issue as have other lawmakers across the country, and even some ardent supporters of Trump, having been defeated, want to back away from it, fearing that the GOP might lose another presidential race.

One issue that has the support of many, on both the extreme right and the middle right, are anti-trans bills, whether to ban gender affirming care, for those under 18, or banning transgender boys and girls from playing school athletics with the gender they identify and the issue is red hot and will only increase over time as a winnable issue for both the White House, and statehouse races.

Running almost parallel to the supposed teaching of Critical Race Theory in elementary and high schools, the two are hoped to secure a stronger base of support for the right, and also to try and regain the support of suburban women who left them over abortion access.

Reaching back into the past, especially the tumultuous 1960s, the area of gender rights and human sexuality has run the gamut from the advent of the Pill, and then Women's Lib and Gay Liberation, which seem like a quaint relic of the past, along with miniskirts and bell bottoms.

America’s near obsession with gender, and by extension sexuality, is an issue that can wax, and wane, and even withsame-sex marriage.  A 2022 poll by the Public Religion Research Institute, (non-partisan) showed that “68 percent of respondents favored allowing same-sex couples to marry, including 49 percent of Republicans,” according to The New York Times.

The Times also reported that the same-sex ruling by the Supreme Court was a low point for those social conservatives and mourned the loss of fundraising dollars, and they quoted Terry Schilling, the president of American Principles Project, who said, “we knew we needed to find an issue that the candidates were comfortable talking about,” and that issue is the burgeoning area of transgender rights , and the rise of young people identifying as trans.

There are now 20 Republican led states that have gone down the path of bathroom access, medically affirming treatments, and the aforementioned athletic participation.

The historic lead was the 2021 success of a veto override by the Republican led Arkansas legislature successfully banning “transition medication or surgery.”

Next up was DeSantis who signed a bill preventing transgender girls from playing K-12 sports,” but recognized a move to shore up his presidential aspirations.

Thursday the US House of Representatives passed a vote banning transgender girls from school sports. The vote passed strictly on partisan lines, and would change the definition of sex to be based “solely on a person’s genetics at birth,” reported The Washington Post, with its target on transgendered women and girls, and a recent poll conducted by the Post and The University of Maryland found a majority of Americans “opposed in high school, college, or professional women’s sports.”

All of this considered, and circling back to abortion, can anyone say that it’s a dead issue for the GOP? Not with uncertainty say most observers of Capitol Hill, and the Supreme Court, and certainly Judge Matthew J. Kacsmaryk, US District Attorney of North Texas, who brought the suit on behalf of the plaintiffs, that argues that there are dangerous side effects to the drug, is an ardent foe of abortion rights.

Also on the agenda is the ant-science stance that the judge’s injunction and statements that there are effects of the drug, despite rigorous study by the FDA, and it’s not hard to see that by extension this could further amplify the anti-vax community who now have a prominent advocate running for the presidency in the person of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and some are even suggesting that he might be a vice- presidential candidate for Trump in 2024.

Dr. Jeremy Levin, chief executive of Ovid Therapeutics told the Times that the Texas lawsuit could not only eat away at the authority of the FDA, it, “much more importantly, it opens it up to a political determination of what a medicine is or isn’t and that is deeply horrific for vaccines, Alzheimer drugs, all the others.”

If successful, what would this lawsuit, on its way to the US Supreme Court, with a stay ending on Friday at midnight, do for a vaccine for the next epidemic?

Post midterm: Can GOP reign without Trump

American voters woke on Tuesday to see which party would govern Congress, only to learn that the final results were unsettled, with vote counting to continue for days or weeks. One thing is uncertain: the much ballyhooed Red revival failed to materialize, and while the Democrats breathed a sigh of relief, for better returns than they thought, Republicans were furious as few of former President Trump’s favored candidates had significant gains.

While some wags have called this the thin pink line, others have noted that the country may have decided they wanted a balance of opinion for the ruling party, yet while we wait for the final tally, to see if the GOP can win the House, and/or the Senate, it’s also possible that the House could remain in the hands of the Democrats and retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.

One issue seems to have defined voters to give the Dems the home field advantage and that is abortion, and women’s reproductive rights, that a majority of Americans favor abortion with some restrictions, at 60 percent according to Pew Research. And, while there were some Democrats, Bernie Sanders included, who felt that it might have not been enough, in the end it did prove to be enough.

Voters in Republican leaning Kentucky overturned an anti abortion amendment, one of the most restrictive in the country; and in MIchigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, ruling over a now Democratic controlled state legislature, won, in part as a champion of abortion rights, noted The Washington Post, and lastly in North Carolina where restrictions are now banned, in what was thought to be a veto proof majority.

Another surprise is that the ferocity of the MAGA crowd, and its doom and gloom scenario of militant teachers, marching lockstep with transgender and LGBT people, coupled with soft on crime Democrats, did not produce the desired push for that alleged Red wave.

The best case scenario, for the GOP, if they win a narrow victory in the House, is that the Biden administration might be able to have more legislative wins, while the more radical GOP, especially people like Marjorie Taylor Green might bear down on their Speaker of the House who will bear the brunt of their anger and force, currently favored to be Kevin McCarthy, and while he has worked the phones, is not an automatic choice, needing 215 votes from House lawmaker votes.

Some are saying that the sharp elbowed Jim Jordan might be the better choice, but in a contest of wills, it's all over but the fighting.

While Trump has been seen by many supporters as the head of the Republican party with his outsized influence, some observers are beginning to wonder if he has lost the Midas touch as both his candidates and his lie about winning the 2020 election seem to be fading, at least for now, as the deciding factor, but as we see, that does not mean it isn’t winning, for some.

While Trump says that he might run again, Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist told The Hill on Wednesday, “How can you look at these results tonight and conclude Trump has any chance of winning a national election in 2024?”

Nipping at his heels as a 2024 candidate is the victorious Florida Gov. Ron De Santis whose sweep over contender Charlie Christ, is already legend, and while predicted, there are some GOP supporters who see him as a more viable presidential candidate for 2024, one that carries less baggage than Trump with his cringe inducing moments, grinning in concert with Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, his anti Asian labels of Covid as the Asian Flu, and his casting away of former supporters such as Jeff Sessions, or his litany of alleged violations of his financial empire, that seems to have been built on sand.

On the technical side it seems that mail in voting has reached a zenith and while extending the counts also seems to suggest that fraud is elusive, and with that, the absence of potential violence at the polls, gave a measure of safety to the electorate, and as President Biden noted, “without much interference at all. . .”

There were some election deniers who “tried to to undermine this election before polls even closes, seizing on problems with vote counting machines in Arizona and a likely delay in Pennsylvania to spin viral theories of vote manipulation” led by Trump who claimed that the election, was being stolen yet again from the Republicans, noted Rosalind S. Helderman of The New York Times.

While this was true, it has not been without support, as we heard over lunch, when two old duffers loudly proclaimed that the “Democrats stole the election from Trump,” before stomping out of the diner.

The durability of this lie has taken hold in the newly elected Congress, and among them are members of the House, Senate, governors, secretaries of state and attorney generals, nearly a thirds, so far, according to The New York Times analysis, but there has also been a significant number of election deniers that were not elected.

This seems to be a force majeure, in the GOP playbook, despite the fact that there has been no credible evidence that the 2020 election was fraudulent, but perhaps this statement of durability, says it all from Russell Fry, a Congressman from South Carolina, who said that it was “clear that it was rigged.”

One aspect of this election is that the absence of old fashioned retail politics with door to door visits seems in the abeyance and when it was done, it worked well, when it was not, candidates lost.

An emerging trend is ranked voting to support a closer support of a candidate and to avoid rancor on the part of some voters and while it was previously seen in the New York City mayoral race, it is now spreading to other state elections and Nevada is using it in the midterms

Simply put it asks voters to rank order their choice of candidates and avoids a run off, because it is an inherent part of the process, and allows for less rancor and as an advocate has said, it gives more room for voter principles.

With rancor being on the front line in this politically divided country, depending on Nevada, and in the past, Alaska, spreading further to midterms might be a positive direction.

This might have helped Tom Ryan advance over JD Vance in the ever so tight Ohio race, where Vance came in as a darkhorse and emerged a victor in a game changer from an Ivy League educated brahmin to a flannel clad good ole boy, writ large.

One gain for Democrats is the number of Black officials across the state and federal slate: Wes Moore as governor of Maryland, joined by the first Black attorney general, Anthony Brown, and Summer Lee as the first Black Congresswoman for Pennsylvania.

For the LGBT community wins are also historic wins for the Dems: Beca Blunt to Congress from Vermont, Erick Russell as treasurer for Connecticut, who is not only gay, but Black, a first in the United States.

Erick Russell

All of this, of course, is background to the larger story of who will control Congress, and as of this writing, with Georgia as a runoff, Arizona and Nevada remain as the races to watch for in the Senate, and for the House: New York, Maryland, California, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada,and Alaska. With leads on both sides of the aisle in some districts.

Let the nail biting continue.

Court decision on Roe might help Biden in midterms

 

Now that that the dust has somewhat settled after the leak of a draft by the US Supreme Court with its intention to rescind the 1973 ruling establishing precedent for abortions in the country, and the backlash from pro choice supporters, and praise from antiabortionists, the verified document will send abortion rights back to the states, and will undoubtedly create a patchwork of laws affecting over 60 million American women.

The 6 to 3 conservative majority has also become a political beast of its  own with the legacy of three Trump appointed justices, and a conservative chief justice, and along with their majority they are also Roman Catholic, whose church is famously opposed to abortion.

The country has been rolling over what a post-Roe America will look like, but it also provides a window of hope for the Biden administration in the upcoming midterms, as his unexpected presidential agenda, includes a land war in Ukraine, without boots on the ground, but with considerable US financial aid; and, a continuing pandemic, which despite appearances, is still present, and battered by foreign policy flubs such as the bypass with France, to favor a deal with Australia over submarine contracts, and now another racially motivated mass shooting, that has the president pockmarked with bad poll numbers: 54.5 disapproving and 41.0 according to fivethirtyeight.com.

While perhaps not a stage for a counter revolution, seeing the country’s women face down a barrage of statewide trigger laws outlawing abortion, that alone, might galvanize abortion rights supporters, including independents to the November polls, or at least enough voter escalation to sustain the current slim majority by the Democrats in the Senate.

For those of a certain generation, the appeal to states rights is a familiar refrain of “rights history'', and was infamously used, more than fifty years ago, to fight civil rights laws for Black Americans, against the stronger teeth of federal legislation.

Extended to its most grievous aspects, the fear, of such legislation, is that it will be used to prevent women from accessing birth control information on their personal electronic devices, such as personal computers, or smartphones, but, also to the imprisonment of doctors, and even family members, who might assist in any manner to aid a woman in obtaining an abortion, even, as we’ve recently learned, crossing state lines to obtain one.

This has its roots in the the Texas law that saw an abridgement of these  freedoms which prompted Vice President Kamala Harris to state:

“All Americans should realize that this is a direct assault on the freedom of women, and it is an attack that can affect all Americans.”

Those fears also face the possible roll back of same sex marriage, and other key social legislation that has been passed, and as Harris continued, “When you look at the privacy rights that are in jeopardy, it could very well include the right to marry someone of the same sex.”

These fears can be seen, say some pollsters and academics, as a path to harness the needed votes for the Democrats to hold onto not only current majorities, but also to redefine the Biden administration.

The president has also called out the radicalism of the MAGA crowd, and while not mentioning the name of former President Trump, whose support for primary candidates may have splintered in some areas, (but certainly not all), still resonates with a radicalized and conservative crowd, even in a reliably blue city like Chicago, there are many residents that revere his name, and want him back in the Oval Office.

“Let me tell you about this ultra MAGA agenda,” Biden said, using former president Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan — “Make America Great Again” — as a pejorative. “It’s extreme, as most MAGA things are.”

Then, in the subsequent days, Biden and his team continued to hammer Republicans in aggressive terms, attacking them as “MAGA” and “ultra MAGA.” Biden even dismissed his predecessor at one point as “the great MAGA king,” reported The Washington Post.

A rallying call of sorts, was a coda issued by the vice-president who added, “I also believe strongly there is another fundamental right that is at stake, the right that all should be entitled to self determination.”

The problem is that in midterms of the past the Dems have taken a shellacking, Clinton in 1994 with 54 seats lost in the House of Representatives and Obama in 2010 and 2014, of 77; with a regain of 12, and with stakes at their highest for a denouement with Biden. 

Presidential historians show that midterm losses, the report card if you will, by the electorate, is now considered a given, as well as a travesty, by the standards of 2010.

To try and change that pattern Harris has used the New Frontier rhetoric of the Kennedy administration, when she said, “There is, at this moment, a time for education, a time for communication, a time for mobilization.”

What will be necessary for this to come together is a calculated campaign with all hands on deck, to show that the calculated politicization of the court: the assault on women's rights is something that is of utmost importance.

Doug Sosnik, a senior political advisor to Bill Clinton, told the Los Angeles Times, earlier in May, that after the ruling, in June could show “the impacts of the court’s actions will affect the lives of more voters, providing Biden with a further opening to sharpen his political narrative.”

Also, from veteran pollster Celinda Lake in that same forum , “This could be game changing in the midterm elections, and changing what happens in the midterms could have a profound effect on how people view the Biden presidency.”