What Manchin doesn't want, Biden can't get

Sen. Joe Manchin’s behavior around the Build Back Better bill makes him seem like the boyfriend that you can’t live with, or without. Just a week before Christmas he played Scrooge and denied President Biden a vote on his signature piece of social legislation, many of which contain pieces that Democrats have wanted for decades, and all of it hinging on the budget reconciliation process, in other words consensus, that the Democrats were forced to adopt since no Republicans would join them on this historical reform bill.

Now in the face of the upcoming midterms and low poll ratings for the president, Biden is forced to find some type of working relationship to salvage his presidency and to avert a possible departure of Manchin to the Republican party, leaving the slim majority the Dems have in the Senate fractured.

Yet as the old saying goes, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.”

This is an unenviable position and after seeing companion pieces like the voting rights bill dormant, the president also faces losing a key constituency, Black voters, that helped propel him to office. 

For progressives, like Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) who have given up so much, asking for more cuts risks losing the progressive wing that Biden needs for further legislation.

Some accused them, and also White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, of saying too much when they collectively accused the West Virginia senator of negotiating in bad faith and betraying the president, but, yet this is exactly what he did, and there is no amount of sugar coating that will change it.

Putting it mildly, to say the least, and using an old southern (G rated) expression he “messed” with the president; and, seemingly to all ears, had no intention of signing the bill.

Whether it was child tax credit extension, preschool advancements, or paid family leave it was always “no”, say Capitol Hill observers.

Attempts at wooing Manchin with a watered down bill will produce just that, a watered down bill.  And his grandstanding. That can’t be taken to the polls.

With Congress as well as the president in their home states celebrating the holidays, the post holiday buzz is how to advance ahead, and that is a road ahead that no one wants to imagine, but must be done.

Glancing into the rear view mirror, the president and voters are remembering the withdrawal from Afghanistan where right wing voters, one in particular, told us that “Biden deserves a bullet in his head for leaving all that equipment behind.”

Moving behind that dangerous rhetoric, and Jan. 6th aside, there was also the optics of Border Patrol whipping Haitian immigrants in the Rio Grande, alienating Black congressional leadership; some in the Beltway see the president riding for a fall.

A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last Monday said that 41 percent of Americans approve of his job, with 55 percent disapproving.

That old curmudgeon Sen. Lindsay Graham, said on FOX news,’I think Build Back Better is dead forever, and let me tell you why: because Joe Manchin has said he’s not going to vote for a bill  that will add to the deficit.”

Jayapal has noted that “I am sure that the conversation about legislation will continue, and we will continue to be involved in that. But, no one should think that we are going to be satisfied with an even smaller package that leaves people behind or refuses to tackle critical issues like climate change.”

And, as a final coda, The Hill reported that progressives “watched some of their biggest priorities stall out.”

Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, according to The Hill has proposed an idea that would cobble together a few key pieces such as prescription drugs, a ramped up Obamacare, clean energy and a “beefed up child tax credit”, and using the same revenue stream that his Senate Finance Committee, of which he is chair, from the same legislation earlier proposed.

Getting approval from Manchin might be like getting blood from a turnip, and after most of the year trying to woo him, it’s possible that the Democrats could push Manchin to the GOP where he seems most at home, and persuade a switch from the GOP to make this all come together.

He has also promoted overhauling the 2017 Tax Code, an effort that could simply mire the Dems in a long slog, that could reach nothing, but endless detail, and hot air; a clever and disingenuous move by Manchin.

Majority leader, Chuck Schumer has said that he wants to take a floor vote, that has surprised some observers, but would flush out Manchin’s true intent, on record, for as he has said, “I can't guarantee anything upfront, just vote, you’ll find out where I am.”

November Jobs Report: on a see saw

 

For all of those who are still scratching their heads over last Friday’s Jobs Report, from the Labor Dept. the news of only 210,000 jobs, when 500,000 were expected, might see a revision next month to temper their spirits.

It’s still a market for job seekers as they continue to reevaluate their future roles, and especially for low income workers who have spent countless hours on their feet for low wages, which is probably why retail jobs sunk to 28,000, and in an especially dangerous era for Covid concerns, working with the uncertainty of vaccine status among coworkers and customers makes for a worrisome time.

Add the danger of being shot, or conked over the head, by marauding gangs stealing luxury goods to be sold on the internet’s  black market, and the die is cast.

The good news is that the labor force participation has risen to 61.8 percent, a reflection perhaps of those who have managed to gain, thanks in part to the extended unemployment benefits to find better jobs at better job conditions, and at a better rate that helped to push up hourly wages by 0.3 percent; seen especially for lower income workers.

“To me, the most important question in the economy going forward is: Will companies improve jobs enough to entice people back into employment, and to face those higher risks?” said Aaron Sojourner, a professor at the University of Minnesota and a former economist at the Council of Economic Advisers for the previous two administrations, reported The New York Times.

While no one wanted to dance in the streets at the dismal report, President Biden tried to put a better spin on it and attributing the higher wage participation and wage increase to his Build Back Better plan, and at the White House he said, “he hailed the drop in the unemployment rate as a vindication of his administration’s policies — while acknowledging the mixed signals in the jobs report, according to the TImes, but added “Our economy is markedly stronger,” . . .  and went on to say: “It’s not enough to know that we’re making progress. You need to see it and feel it in your own lives — around the kitchen table, in your checkbooks.”

“This is a miserable jobs report, there’s no spinning it any other way,” said Rep. Kevin Brady to The Hill.

Some saw light at the end of the tunnel:a  slight uptick in women’s employment, overall, and that of Hispanics, have given some rise to optimism, but it’s still too early to see this as a true indicator of note.

Fears of the new variant Omicron are also not present in the report taken ahead of the detection by South African virologists, so the December report will be able to add to concerns.

Meanwhile pressure is up on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to  intervene on inflation, but he, along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, feel that these figures will eventually dissipate; but others disagree, but as we’ve noted there is little that the federal government can do, except wait and see, say most economists.

The Times noted the discrepancy between the two reporting methods and that the household with its smaller sample might be the culprit: Part of the puzzle in the data released on Friday arose because the Labor Department report is based on two surveys, one polling households and the other recording hiring among employers.

“For about the past half-year, the survey of households had been showing significantly weaker job growth than its sister survey — until last month, when it was much stronger. It showed overall employment, for example, growing by 1.1 million, seasonally adjusted.”

They added, “Economists generally put more trust in the employer survey, which has a much larger sample size. So the recent pattern suggests that the household survey had been undercounting employment and, in effect, caught up in November.”

This is not always the case, and some economists feel that the household survey is more accurate, despite its size because of the direct nature of the methodology, but then failure is an orphan, while success has many fathers. 

“Average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory workers were up 8 cents in November, to $31.03, and are 4.8 percent higher than a year ago, according to the report on Friday.”

Wages, while up, are only part of the challenge in hiring, say many employers and it seems to be a steady progress to other areas: increasing paid time off (PTO), increasing employer contribution to health care, among others.

Wage growth, however, has not kept up with high cost of living, especially in urban areas, such as Chicago, Los Angeles and New York where housing costs are high, and going higher, and some sources have reported that even cities outside of those areas are seeing a struggle to stay afloat, especially for families; middle class as well as working class.

In consideration, the Times acknowledged that, “The latest University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment pointed to “the growing belief among consumers that no effective policies have yet been developed to reduce the damage from surging inflation.”