Can De Santis recover from the migrant transport?

 For many months Florida Gov. Ron De Santis has been seen as a viable candidate for the 2024 presidential race against incumbent Joe Biden, and for the Republican party this meant that they could capitalize on the issues that former President Donald Trump championed: anti masks, the Covid pandemic, that he called, “the Chinese Flu,” but most of all his anti immigrant stance that he kept front and center of his initial campaign statements.

Those that supported those positions, but recoiled at the ill will towards his personality, found a new hero in De Santis, the “un Trump”, as he played the GOP playbook better than Trump, with statements and actions geared towards his base: the masking debate in public schools, the suspicions that Covid was not real, and his anti LGBTQ stance, especially when it came to public school textbooks and the push against Critical Race Theory, even though it is only taught in law and other graduate schools; but, the truth didn’t matter, because these,and other controversial positions are the bread and butter of the GOP.

He seemed like a sure winner ready to battle Trump for the nomination, until his recent transports of mostly Venezuelan asylum seekers, who had been granted permission to stay in the US, pending  legal processing, to Martha's Vineyard the elite Democratic vacation spot home to the late Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis, Valerie Jarrett, and former President Barack Obama and his family, plus many others.

The pie in the face event pushed the issue of legal, and illegal migration, front and center to the Biden administration, and then Texas Governor Greg Abbott went even further by sending buses full of migrants to the home of Vice President Kamala Harris, which was duly covered by FOX TV even thought there was no notice to Washington D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser.

A sticking point in the story is that the migrants were in Texas, not Florida, and took a circuitous route to South Carolina, and then to the Vineyard.

In both instances, local governments and authorities, especially those on the vacation island scrambled to feed, clothe, and house these refugees and migrants, many of who came with nothing more than the clothes on their backs, as they escaped from the economic, and political perils of living in Venezuela, many earning less than the US equivalent of $20.00, per month, plus gang violence fueling fears, and the willingness to undertake a tortuous journey, much of it on foot to reach the American border.

Clearly branded as a political stunt, these actions are beginning to hurt the perfect pitch of De Santis, and his efforts to be a presidential candidate. And, while the moral outrage from many liberal circles has been countered by the applause of his supporters, his image is being tattered by those who think that he has gone too far..

There is life outside of talking points, and a pending lawsuit by some of the migrants that they were duped with false information, by a shadowy women named “Perla” who lured the migrants with the promise of jobs, and housing and a mostly false brochure outlining benefits in Massachusetts (written in Florida) is angering many, especially independent voters who might be the linchpin in De SaIntis efforts, even as he tag teams with Abbott, in an enterprise that shows hubris to some, and cockiness to others.

Ready technology, much of it pocket sized, has sent the images of the displaced far beyond the intentions of Abbott and De Santis.

A bit of bragging never hurt: “All the people in D.C. and New York were beating their chest when Trump was president, saying they were so proud to be sanctuary jurisdictions, De Santis told a group in the Florida Panhandle, and “The minute even a small fraction of what those border towns day with every day are brought to their front door, they all go berserk.”

There is a grain of truth in his statement, but using part of a $12 million war chest of taxpayer money might not go down as well as he expects, despite questions about what exactly a sitting governor might be charged with, the lawsuit notwithstanding.

What remains unclear is that only $615,000 was used, but this was a claim by his Democratic rival Charlie Crist, and yet from others that the amount may be interest of the $5.8 billion dollars given to Florida as part of the American Rescue Plan.

Recent reports have said that $1.6 million dollars was given to a contractor, possibly the private air carrier, or others, but some reports have indicated that the $615.00 was given to the carrier, as partial payment, and there is the amount of $950.00, which came from a public records, with some speculation that this was another payment to the same carrier, but questions remain if these are shell companies, to hide the true identities of the recipients.

It is known that Vetrol was a political donor to the Republican Party.

The New York Times reported that some in Latin America “have accused Mr. De Santis and Mr. Abbott of being largely out of touch with the crisis on the ground in Venezuela,” and even hypocrisy toward their criticisms of the Maduro government.

The Biden administration has struggled, internally, as we have learned, with how to handle the increase in immigration at the border and the mess that was inherited from Trump whose detention of migrant children, and whose videotaped tears, filled nightly news segments; with some saying that internal dissension has contributed to a fractured response to the burgeniung numbers at the Southern border.

When arriving Haitians, escaping violent gangs, were seen being whipped by Texas border guards, all viewers were appalled. Coupled with the welcome of the  Afghanistan refugees, and its comparatively smooth entry, after the US withdrawal, accusations of racism abounded, making many observers question what would be a consistent, even moral response from the Administration.

Chiming in was President Andreas Manuel Lopez Labrador of Mexico who criticized Abbott's authorization of the Texas National Guard to detain migrants, and he noted, “Since there are elections in November, then they’re looking for sensationalism, for scandal,” and that such actions were “immoral.”

For Venezuela the “shattering of the economic, social and democratic crisis” has been branded the worst by economists, resulting in 6.8 million Venezuelans, “more than a fifth of the population have left the country . . .” noted the Times.⁹

Equally troubling is that the United States has struggled with immigration for decades, especially a large influx of Eastern and Southern Europeans after World War I, and after World War II it created an asylum process for those fearing prosecution of race, religion and nationality; and, problematic are those that have filed false claims, knowing that the process can take years.

Title 8 from the Biden administration has drilled down on those that are filing false statements and can deport them, is not as well known as the fears of job loss by Americans, and the racial bias that underlies many of these self same fears.

Legality, including actions by the San Antonio Sheriff Javier Salazar bring moral outrage, but even then we have to return to actionable offenses.

There are also appeals to the US Department of Justice, as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, has “encouraged Garland to investigate where the false hopes, and inducements “would support charges of kidnapping under relevant state laws,” and could lead also to charges of racketeering, reported The Hill, and, he has been joined in this by Massachusetts Attorney General Rachel Rollins.

This will be an ongoing struggle and one that might garner headlines, while even more migrants arrive in even more Democratic strongholds.

Updated Sept. 25th at 1:48 CDT

Why are American colleges so expensive?

When President Biden made his historic and unprecedented student debt loan relief for tens of millions of Americans, last month, encircling $10,000 in debt for those earning less than $125,000, and $20,000 for those low income students who received Pell grants, the reactions were mixed: some praised him and others panned him; and, those critics included some that said, it was not enough, or it was a handout to deadbeat debtors.

The program championed by Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Schumer, came after a long slog, but  there were plenty of lawmakers on both sides of the aisle that disagreed, including, some Democrats worried about their chances in the November midterms, as well as Republicans who didn’t want the president to gain points with young voters.

This is all set against the backdrop that “45 million people owe $1.6 trillion for federal loans taken out for college - more than they owe on car loans, credit cards or any consumer debt other than mortgages,”  reported The New York Times.

What wasn’t asked, and is the $64,000 question: why are American colleges so expensive?

To help answer that question we did a meta analysis on some of the more salient research on the topic: journal articles, and private research organizations. What follows is not comprehensive and we’ve spared the reader charts, graphs and data that would obfuscate, rather than enlighten.

A core problem

While many parents and students get sticker shock when they see the price tags at some of the best private, as well as public schools; take for example Columbia College in New York City which even two years ago, came in at a whopping $61,000 per year, exclusive of fees and other costs, such as books and housing, aid becomes paramount for all but the wealthiest students.

Scholarships, grants and other forms of aid lessen the overall price tag, but what remains are key problems, and as Forbes noted in their analysis, “colleges are not transparent about their true prices.” 

Parents, therefore, are starting the process with one hand tied behind their back, since true costs, and aid packages, are not known until the student is accepted, making it akin to buying a pig in a polke, and “knowing that students will have few alternatives by the time they actually see what they see what they will pay, [and] colleges have every incentive to be stingy with financial aid.”

Problematic for many low income students, and especially students of color, is that the help of the Pell Grant, “hasn’t kept pace with inflation or the cost of college, a fact given by Mamie Voight, in policy research at the Institute for Higher Education Policy, in Washington, D.C."

That makes it easy to see that there are systemic problems with both the admission process, as well as the administration of aid, need based, or merit.

It is especially notable that in some states there has been a rise in American students going to college, for example, in 1980 one half of high school graduates enrolled in college, and that number is 70 percent today, noted Business Insider, recently.in a cover story.

For others that picture is changing with many areas across the nation wondering if both the cost, and the time are worth it,noted in another coverage, by nbcnews.com.

An unfair marketplace

That debate aside, for the moment, at least, accessing aid makes it clear that there are limited options for an atypical student, which might be why many choose the local public college, and live at home, to save on expenses; but, by staying “in state” leaves competitive providers no incentive to offer discounts, “or improve the quality of education,” Forbes surmised.

The reliable US News and World Report, whose guide to colleges and graduate schools has gained near biblical status, noted the tuition hike of 36 percent from 2008 to 2018 compared to “real median income in the U.S. grew just over 2.1 percent in the same period, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.”

At issue is also the debt that is taken on,and that can result in defaults with “one million people defaulting on their student loans.”

For Black students, in particular, this becomes of prime importance since they “hold the most debt  of any other racial group” according to The Hill, citing the PBS NewsHour that showed, “among 2016 graduates, nearly 40 percent of Black students graduate college with $30,000 or more in debt compared to only 29 percent of white students, 23 percent of Hispanic students and 18 percent of Asian students.”

This is underpinned not only by historical racism in the U.S. but the lack of ability to acquire wealth through homeownership by their grandfathers, who returning from World War II were denied access (many of them middle class) to better housing, most often in white neighborhoods, by restrictive covenants, or if that did not work by violence, to drive them away if they had succeeded.

Fast forward to the present day, and the lack of “integrated wealth” has caused “Black families to seek more and more student loans.”

Of equal consequence for all borrowers, but especially for Black graduates, who after graduation, (who often have to face racism in applying for professional jobs) is the issue of repayment.

“Because of the way that the repayment system is set up, people are only making payments on the interest, and not principal, so their balances balloon over time,” said Kat Welbeck, director of advocacy and civil rights at the Student Borrower Protection Center.

Increased costs keep rising

The bad news for high school applicants is that costs are getting higher said Zane Heflin, policy analyst at The New Center, who has said, “These colleges are trying to raise tuition to appeal to a broader group of students by allowing that to take the place of actual quality,” and furthermore, “there are a lot of perverse initiatives on the part of the colleges to raise their sticker price.”

A large part of that price surge are the ever increasing menu of amenities, part of what some have called, “our collective desire for the all frills college experience” that so many value in American universities, but that they charge for, “climbing walls, state of the arts mega student centers,seriously pimped out dormitories,” noted Thebestschools.org, in August.

This is far removed from returning vets from World War II on GI Bill who faced large state universities with cinder block walled dorm rooms, with toilets and showers down the hall, and at most, a weight room, a track team, and some basketball and tennis courts at the athletic center.

Consequently, It needs no saying that the schools are marketing themselves to wealthier students, and this specific market wants those frills, and is willing to pay the cost.

Adding it all up for a final tally was CNBC who stated that there is an average debt, per student of $37,172 totalling $1.5 trillion of “total debt spread among 44 million Americans.”

Rounding up total costs, in federal lending and grants, according to The Atlantic, “are more than $3,000 per year per student for the ancillary services alone."

Add that to higher and higher salaries of not only teachers, but administrative staff, that require college degrees plus advanced degrees,and often wrap around services, like counseling, and the perfect storm has been created.

Also significant is that many state legislatures cut their education budgets, especially during the Covid lockdown, forcing budget cuts that increased tuition by public colleges to cover the missing dollars.

Market Conditions

There is a much larger picture than parents and prospective students might not imagine, and Beth Akers, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where she focuses on the economics of higher education,and author of “Make College Pay”, looked deeper in her research, and especially how the “market” itself is a character in a never ending drama; and, noting that “the decision to go to college is finally a cost benefit calculation, on rising to the middle class.”

Taking a look at this long term analysis, there is a market ready to exploit the value that is seen as a “golden ticket”, which in turn inflates college tuition. And, this is a market that is competitive, with few alternatives.

Accreditation is another factor that prevents a competitive market that would reward students and parents alike, and it is “difficult for a school to access federal financial aid, which means that the playing field is not level between traditional schools and new ones.”

Akers does note that the problems “are deeply ingrained in America’s higher education system and reversing them will take work: and her proposals are two fold: first off, increase transparency, and quality data “should be made more available and accessible, along with data on typical earnings after graduation. This will help inform students whether a particular college degree is worth the cost.”

A move that when suggested has had colleges and universities roaring in protest.

The result would be an increase in competition that would allow healthy competition, and secondly “removing accreditors from their role based on student outcomes,” and force current players to make their product more competitive with lower prices.

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August US Jobs Report shows resiliency, despite inflation

The United States economy has, once again, proved its resiliency with the August Jobs Report that showed continued strength in the monthly report issued by the Labor Department that showed  a healthy 315,000 non-farm jobs exceeding predictions of 300,000, and while not the show stopping number from July, employment is on the rise and also with wages, and there was a slight uptick in the employment rate to 3.7 percent, but that is less worrisome than the still red-hot job market.

The good news is that the slowdown is what the Federal Reserve wants to cool down inflation, and those still high job numbers also come with higher wages, and those higher wages, even while nibbled from higher prices are causing the central bank worries on how to bring it all down, in a calibrated way, and not by the earlier miscalculations from the 1970s where two decades of robust inflation ruled, or rather ruined the day.

While some economists are concerned that this slowdown is what is needed, there are others that feel that last year’s predictions of a soft landing  for the nation’s economy are long gone.

The New York Times reported that, “The central bank is still all but certain to raise interest rates at its meeting this month, probably by at least half a percentage point and perhaps by three-quarters of a point. That decision may rest on what happened to consumer prices in August; that data is scheduled to be released on Sept. 13, a week before the Fed’s meeting.

Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, whos has been on the hot seat for some months is someone who is data driven, and it will take some more data for he, and the regional governors to make a final consensus, and vote, on the size of the increase; but, there are many who are predicting another huge increase, perhaps as much as 0.75 percent, but all bets are on the table.

Politically, the news couldn't have come at a better time for President Joe Biden whose ratings are still tanked, and with the midterms around the corner, and he had this to say:

“Jobs are up, wages are up, people are back to work. And we’re seeing some signs that inflation may be — may be, I’m not over promising — may be beginning to ease,” Mr. Biden said at the White House. Coupled with falling gas prices, he said, “America has some really good news going into Labor Day weekend.”

While American employers, for some time, have complained about not finding the right type of worker with the right qualifications, and many are still saying it, others have noticed an increase in more qualified people returning to work, and that very well maybe as the TImes noted, a reflection of inflationary process as many people try to walk the financial tightrope, especially with high rents, and especially in large urban areas as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.

“And headlines about layoffs and a possible recession may be spurring some people to return to work while they can. A recent survey conducted by the career site ZipRecruiter found that job seekers were feeling less confident about their searches, and were putting more importance on job security than on flexibility.

In fact, labor force participation (LFP) did show an increase of 0.3 percentage point, at an overall 62.4 overall percentage.

“People are spending down that pandemic nest egg a little more quickly than they expected because of rising prices, and now feel a bit more nervous and a bit more desperate to find a job,” said Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter.

Desperation may be facing American Blacks as they face dim prospects for greater employment, and this report gives them a 6.9 unemployment rate, nearly double that of whites, (but steady across the board over several months) making cuts into wealth building, not only to just meet basic needs.

Often times flourishing in the service sector, these are some of the jobs that drew them into great demand, and with some employers waving aside less previously held requirements such as a high school diploma, or misdemeanors, or even weak performance and job histories, these are the same areas that could be cut as the Fed works to calibrate ways to cool down, what is still a red hot jobs market.

That, as former Treasury secretary Larry Summers noted last year in an analysis, could result in double digit unemployment for Blacks, historically seen unemployment seen across the decades and eroding the wage increases they gained over the last few months.

Rising wages have become, despite inflation’s deleterious effect on them, a concern for Powell and this slowdown in employment which may increase by year’s end also has can help, but is a double edged sword for many, especially in the service sector, and with two  jobs available for every job seeker, the elevation in wages to 5.2 percent is being watched as a barometer for anti-inflation measures.

Coupled with supply chain issues and commodity pressures has increased the pressure for Powell to determine how to juggle all of the balls to fight inflation in the coming months.

That aside, many are quitting jobs to attain those higher wages, for those that need qualified employees, especially in the private sector, and as The Hill reported, “Job seekers on Indeed.com are looking for ever-higher wages, Ann Elizabeth Konkel, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, explained. The number of Indeed users seeking jobs with a $20 per hour wage rose above those seeking $15 per hour in June 2022, and the number of jobseekers looking for $25 per hour is up 122 percent over the past 12 months.”

Coming out on top for August were retail, 44,000, manufacturing, 22,000, and business services, 68,000, and healthcare with 48,000 - although still reduced from burn out by staff caring for COVID-19 patients. And, while these areas are expected to grow, they are also vulnerable to downturns, as predicted, by later Fed actions..

For now, just now, this is the time for those looking to gain, or change employment to do so now, to lock in either a better wage, or better working conditions. As the old adage says: “Strike while the iron is hot.”