Thursday, October 19, 2023

At the intersection of war: A child's death

The war that began when the Palestinian group Hamas sent rockets to Israel in an early morning attack on Oct. 7 has opened a declaration of war by Israel, and a surge of military aggression and violence not seen in recent years, plus death and destruction unparalleled in both Israel and the Gaza strip. What is to be expected are demonstrations on both sides, those supporting both Israel and Hamas.

Lives lost and shattered in both Israel and in the Gaza strip have created a deep sense of horror, and people worldwide are in deep shock and anger as pictures of grieving women, bloodied bodies being carried by stern-faced men make many people recoil in grief.


The repercussions have reverberated on both sides of the Atlantic, and the heated rhetoric has unleashed forces of prejudice, ignorance, and hate. THe first casualty has occurred in the stabbing death of a 6- year old boy in a quiet suburb of Chicago on Saturday, when he and his mother were confronted by their landlord whose anger was fueled, said his wife, by listening to conservative right wing media.


The tragic death of Wadea Al-Fayoume and the knifing of his mother Hanaan Shahin gave a face to the darker forces of war, long simmering resentment, a breakdown in central government of a sovereign nation creating an opportunity for an attack that led to shootings, hostage takings, and other assaults too numerous, and horrendous to name.


American liberal clergyman Harry Emerson Fosdick, once said, “The tragedy of war is that it uses man’s best to do man’s worst,” and the events that have unfolded in nearly three weeks have caused great anguish, pain, and prayers for peace in what seems to be an unsolvable dilemma that will have repercussions on an unknown horizon, as the “best” is the willful creation and use of weapons of mass destructions.


The irony of the tragedy In Plainfield, Il, was that the boy’s mother when confronted by her hate fueled landlord, screaming about the attacks, and verbally assaulting her, because she was Muslim, simply responded, “Let’s pray for peace,” whereupon she was knifed.


Peace seems a long range hope, and the intersection of the twinned evils of hatred and ignorance, amply fueled by a distorted right wing media, has now taken the life of a little boy by a man who previously bought him toys and built him a treehouse culminated in a deep wail of horror.


Set against the background of violence, both in Illinois and in the Middle East is the political alliance between Israel and the United States, as well as Iran supporting Hamas, and in Lebanon, Hezbollah. These alliances with each taking sides will need much more than the proverbial cooler heads to prevail.


Fears of repercussions in the region are justified, and taking sides, for either side of the conflict,has created a firestorm in social media, and unfortunately misinformation and pictures of long ago conflicts, some as far back as 2013, have added to regional tensions.


Facing an uncertain future US President Joe Biden has assured Israel of its longtime commitment to an alliance, but as Air Force Once approached Jordan for a meeting with King Abdullah II, and President Mohammed Abbas, a terrible attack took place Tuesday on a hospital sponsored by the Anglican (Episcopal) Church of Jerusalem. Hundreds were injured, and those being treated for inflicted wounds were accompanied by those seeking shelter creating a perfect storm of misery, and the meeting was canceled.


In an address on Wednesday, the president said that the hospital explosion was from a radicalized group within the Palestine region, but there are doubts as to the veracity of that assertion, since the analysis was done by Israel.


Biden has come into his fair share of criticism for standing by Israel, and perhaps that is why he emphasized in his speech that Hamas did not represent all Palestinians. Taking a careful path, he has to face a reelection and also those who simply do not like him, despite his record of achievement, and will look for any excuse to damage his presidency. 


Straddling that divide has also created tension in the White House among the executive staff, as Huffington Post Politics recently pointed out:


“Several staffers across multiple agencies, most of whom work on national security issues, told HuffPost they and their colleagues worry about retaliation at work for questioning Israel’s conduct amid the U.S.-backed Israeli campaign to avenge an Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, that killed more than 1,400 Israelis.


The fear is especially intense among staffers with Muslim backgrounds. On Sunday, presidential personnel office chief Gautam Raghavan organized a call with close to a dozen current and former high-level Muslim appointees to discuss their concerns. Some staffers said they felt unsafe voicing their opinions around colleagues, according to a person on the call, which has not been previously reported.”


In the local Palestinian community the anger is palpable, and in a statement released by the U.S. Palestinian Community  Network (USPCN they said:


“We also want to make it clear - this attack on Hanaan and Wadea, leading to Wadea’s murder, was caused by anti-Palestinian sentiment in the U.S. and all over the media this past week. Politicians, both Republicans and Democrats, have helped to embolden racist beliefs against Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims by passing anti-Palestinian resolutions, including our own city council members in Chicago, and uplifting law enforcement’s calls for “heightened awareness” of Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims in U.S. neighborhoods.”


Singling out major US media, in both print and online, it has become apparent to them that the air is burdened with the aforementioned hate and rhetoric, and the misinformation since the attacks on Israel have led to the death of an innocent little boy.




Tuesday, October 10, 2023

September Jobs Report was a Marathon

Chicago erupted in cheers on Sunday when newcomer Kelvin Kiptum won the Chicago Marathon, and as outsized as this achievement was, setting a new record, the U.S. economy in the labor report from Friday’s Labor Department, hit 336,000 non-farm jobs for the month of September sent shockwaves through the country’s financial markets with employers, and employees, seeing an unanticipated  surge


We’ve almost worn out the adjective “resilient”, and even “durable” is beginning to sound hackneyed, but  one thing is certain, the U.S. has turned the corner for a recession, and it's also apparent that more furrowed brows, and sleepless nights  are a certainty for members of the Federal Reserve Bank, and, especially its chair, Jerome Powell.


While opinions vary as to whether or not an interest rate increase is coming soon, many are saying that one is sure to come before the end of the year, and others less sanguine, say that market forces may be the water bearer for the Fed.


Wages, that figure most watched by many, had an increase of 0.2 percent, or 7 cents, and showed a slowdown from a year ago, of 3 and 4 percent; and, while this alone might not be the entire picture, the country has nearly returned to pre-pandemic employment levels, an achievement in, and of itself. 


The New York Times noted that this is the “33rd consecutive month of job growth, and the increase was the biggest since January.”


Once again leisure and hospitality led the rise, at 96,000 jobs, followed by government with 73,000 gains, with an increase in hiring, followed by education and health at 70,000, the latter attributable in some quarters to public education hiring. 


The soft wages do reflect, in part, that, (as we saw last month) employers are no longer feeling the need to offer financial and other incentives to attract qualified workers, and this maybe, just maybe, softened Powell’s attitude at the next FOMC meeting when discussing rate hikes are on the table.


Odds in some quarters are betting that the next rate hike will be increased, and a poll of some economists is holding at a 43 percent chance.


Again, the position of the Fed is precarious in its calculation, and Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab’s chief fixed investment strategist, noted to Bloomberg “It certainly shows a  strong labor market, but the pace of wage gains has been slowing, and this leaves the door open to another rate hike by the Fed. It’s a tough balancing act between subdued inflation pressures and strong growth.”


“This is a blowout report, and it’ll have people thinking that the Fed may pull the trigger on another hike before year-end, the selloff in rates be damned,” Omair Sharif, president and founder of Inflation Insights LLC, said in a note to clients, according to Bloomberg. 


Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP in Chicago sees the bond market as doing much of the heavy lifting  for the Fed, but, “that said, the acceleration in growth justified higher rates and hawks will remain concerned about backsliding on progress made on inflation, as they meet in November.”


"The knee-jerk reaction to September’s surprisingly hot nonfarm payroll is that the Fed may have to hike more — but the details favor another interpretation. Household employment is weak, and the soft increase in wages and flat hours worked suggest labor-market conditions are not quite so rosy,” said economist Anna Wong, another Bloomberg sourced economist.


In yet another survey the odds have risen from 56 percent v. 46 percent for a November or December rate hike from the FOMC.


What may help, or not, in the calculations is the revision of  the two previous months' job figures: up 40,000 for August, and July increased to 236,000, giving rise to even more speculation. 


Whichever way we look, this is certainly a more optimistic view than a year ago, when the national economy could sway either way.