January Jobs are a mixed bag while CPI brightens

The January Jobs report released by the US Labor Department on Wednesday showed 130,000 non farm jobs that surprised many economists expecting a much lower rate, and while some saw it as an affirmation of the resilience of the American economy, others looking at the annual revisions found it as a mere blip in a troubling pattern for the world’s largest economy; and, central to that concern was the high rate of inflation, 2.7 percent, above the desired rate of 2 percent mandated by the Federal Reserve,

“U.S. jobs data released this morning showed signs of a rebounding labor market in January, with unemployment ticking down and a total 130,000 jobs added in January, driven mostly by hiring in the service sector,” wrote Chris Bangert-Drowns, researcher at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a left-leaning research nonprofit,” according to The Hill.

Taking an opposite track is Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets who said, "I am skeptical that the degree of vigor seen in these data will be consistently repeated going forward, but this release should slam the door shut on the narrative that the labor market is on the cusp of falling apart.”

Investopedia quoted Dante DeAntonio, Senior Director at Moody’s Analytics, who reiterated prior evaluations saying, "The January employment report was a mixed bag. It doubled down on the fact that the economy struggled to add jobs in 2025, while also offering a slightly more optimistic view of job growth to start 2026. ...The stronger-than-expected job growth in January does little to change our view of the labor market moving forward.

As in previous months, in 2025, health care was strong at 82,000 and social services also led at 42,000, the latter an umbrella label for social support from local and state governments as well as social workers. As has been widely reported, and as we have also noted, the aging of America’s baby boomers has increased the need for these services.

One consideration is that the lack of growth in other industries can easily keep the economy in stasis, and the weakness in other jobs is a cause for worry by some economists; and, bankers, even from the White House, who in advance of the release of the report seemed anxious; especially since President Trump has only a 40 percent approval rate with most of the negatives centering on his handling of the economy.

An important note: “The revisions also underscore how dependent the job market has become on hiring in the health care sector. Before the revisions, health care accounted for about 405,000 of the 584,000 jobs added in 2025, or nearly 70 percent of the gains. According to the latest data, health care companies added 391,000 jobs, while employment in other sectors fell by a combined 210,000 jobs.”

The New York Times reported that previous revisions were, “small and attracted relatively little attention, But the 2024 adjustment was the biggest in years, reducing estimated job growth by nearly 600,000. This year’s revisions was even bigger, the largest since 2008 in percentage terms.”

There is another cautionary note: “But the largest increase in payrolls in 13 months . . . likely exaggerates the labor market's health, as revisions showed the economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025 instead of the previously estimated 584,000. That is a fraction of the 1.459 million jobs added in 2024, the final full year of former President Joe Biden's term,“ said Reuters.

Even more importantly we can also see that with those revisions the US is not keeping up with expected growth, and population size for the last two years and causing future uncertainty.

Trying to make sense of this mixed bag of reports and opinions is not creating easy predictions for the future, but when the Federal Reserve meets in March it is widely expected that interests will remain unchanged, and if true will not please the president.

On Friday the Labor Department released the Consumer Price Index, giving a  mild boost to the economy showing a slow down in inflation to 2,4 percent and, “The slowdown in overall inflation was cheered by the White House, with a spokesperson posting on social media that "America's economy is set to turbocharge even further through long-overdue interest rate cuts from the Fed." Americans anxious about the labor market and affordability have soured on President Donald Trump's handling of the economy,” reported Reuters.

“But just because the job market is strong doesn’t mean that there isn’t more room to cut interest rates," Fed Governor Stephen Miran told Fox Business after Wednesday's jobs numbers were released.

Bets are on that the Federal Reserve are unlikely to cut interest rates with this stranger than expected job report, and the markets did rise with the better than expected news, making Miran a possible outlier, again, when the Federal Opens Market Committee meets in March, as inflation  inches closer to the 2 percent target.

"Overall, the data suggest that price pressures remain a little too hot for comfort for the time being, but the direction of travel for inflation continues to look to be lower, even if this has proved a bumpy and slow process," said James McCann, senior economist, investment strategy at Edward Jones. "For the Fed, this probably doesn't change much in the near term."

“Miran has pushed for larger interest rate cuts since President Donald Trump appointed him to fill a vacancy at the Fed last year. He said on Wednesday before the CPI report that fewer regulatory burdens on the U.S. economy would help it produce more, which would lower prices and give the Fed the opportunity to further cut rates,” according to Investopdia.

Which brings us to prices, a constant worry for all but the wealthiest consumers who as we saw last month are largely supporting the US economy, while middle and lower consumers are feeling the pinch and holding back.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly in a blog post wrote “highlighted that working households don't feel optimistic these days, cautiously or otherwise, [R]ecent surveys of consumer sentiment show that people expect unemployment to rise and jobs to become more scarce over the next six months. And open positions are already pretty hard to come by, having fallen to their lowest since the pandemic in December.

Further expanding, she added, "We’ve been in a relatively low-hiring, low-firing environment for some time," Daly wrote. "That may persist, but workers are aware that things could change quickly, leaving them in a no-hiring, more-firing labor market. With inflation printing above the FOMC’s 2% goal, this rightly feels precarious."

The CPI did give some good news according to Reuters: “Eggs and coffee were also relatively cheaper last month as were fresh fruits and vegetables. The Trump administration has rolled back and cut tariffs on some imported foods. Still, food prices increased 2.9% from a year ago.

Consumers also got more relief at the pump, with gasoline prices dropping 3.2% in January from December. Though electricity prices dipped 0.1%, they surged 6.3% year-on-year, reflecting demand from data centers to power artificial intelligence.”

Affordability. The buzz word of the momentum shows more clouds, “The cost of shelter, which includes rents as well as motel and hotel rooms, increased 0.2% after surging 0.4% in December. Food prices rose 0.2% after accelerating 0.7% in the prior month. Grocery store prices climbed 0.2% as more expensive cereal and baked goods were partially offset by a 0.4% easing in the cost of beef and veal.”

Hovering in the background before the March FOMC meeting is the Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Indexes (CPE) which track consumer behavior, for example seeking cheaper alternatives be they generics, in the case of groceries, or more meals prepared at home versus dining out; and, is a key indicator for any moves from the Federal Reserve.

Of note: Wholesale inflation climbed to 0.5 percent in January, reported in late February by the US Labor Dept., and according to the Associated Press: "prices came in hotter than expected," and on a year over year basis, were led by an "increase in the wholesale prices of services, led by higher profit margins for retailers and wholesalers" with the suggestion that the Trump tariffs are being passed onto consumers.

While energy prices were down with gasoline dropping 5.5 percent from December; now, with the Israeli and American war on Iran, the price of gasoline has increased by 20 percent in the first 5 days of the aggression.

Updated March 5th 2026

Fed keeps interest rates the same frustrating Trump

Wednesday the Federal Open Markets Committee of the Federal Reserve Board, as expected, voted to keep interest rates the same from 3.5 percent to 3,75 percent citing the resilience of the United States job market among other key components, with Chair Jerome Powell saying, the economy “expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing."

All of which follows a steady pattern,well established during his tenure, using established criteria of looking at the data on inflation and unemployment to meet the twinned mandate of the Federal Reserve, inflation at 2 percent, and full employment. But, despite  this traditional approach, President Trump has been not just unhappy with it, but has made disparaging remarks about Powell and his intelligence, and wants to see greater rate cuts; and, in the recent past has called for cuts as deep as 3 percent, a figure that many economists believe could lead to inflation, and possibly a recession.

The traditional independence of the Fed has been in the public eye especially since Trump’s second term, and in response to questions asked at the press conference, after the meeting, about the implications of politics in FOMC decisions, the Chair replied, “It’s just an institutional arrangement that has served the people well,” he said, “and If politics get in the way, it would create the perception that the bank would act in the interest of one group or another, rather than the broader public,” adding that, “If you lose that, first of all it would be hard to restore the credibility of the institution.”

There were two dissenters, supporting the president in wanting at least a quarter point cut, and they were Trump’s handpicked board members, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller.

While inflation has cooled to 2.7 percent, it is still a matter of concern for the Fed but Powell said to the media, and reported by The New York Times,"We still have some tension between employment and inflation,” and noted, “but it has waned a bit. That means there’s less risk of an acceleration in inflation and also of a serious deterioration in the labor market.”

Core inflation as measured by the PCE, the Fed’s “preferred inflation measure — is just above 2 percent, stripping out tariff effects,” they added; but, “Powell said he takes a lot of solace from indications that consumers think inflation won’t be too hot either over the short or the longer term. “Expectations have been solid, and they reflect confidence in the return to 2 percent inflation,” and in an opined they reported, “If consumers start to think that prices will rise, it’s more likely they will, because workers will demand higher wage increases to compensate.”

The December 2025 Index increased on a seasonal basis to 0.3 percent, and over the last 12 months increased 2,78 percent, again seasonally adjusted, with the largest increase to 0.4 percent was for shelter and “was the largest factor in all the time's monthly increase,” in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released last month.

Taken together there is cause for vigilance by the Fed, and of course the White House.

With eyes set on future developments Powell said, “We don’t take things off the table but it isn’t anybody’s base case right now,” in response to questions of a rate hike.

It’s been widely reported that Trump is focused on Powell’s replacement after his term empires this May, and he said on Thursday at a Cabinet meeting, "Next week ... we're going to be announcing the head of the Fed, who that will be, and it'll be a person that will, I think, do a good job."

On Friday he did just that, selecting former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to be the next chair, and as reported by Investopedia, “Warsh, who served as a Fed governor between 2006 and 2011, beat out several finalists for the job, including Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Warsh will take over as Fed chair after Jerome Powell's term expires in May, assuming he is confirmed by the Senate.

"I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best," Trump wrote in a social media post Friday morning.”

Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker, “had long been considered one of the front-runners for the president’s nomination. And, during his tenure he became “the youngest governor in the bank’s history, and served as its liaison to Wall Street during the 2007-08 financial crisis,” according to The Hill.

Warsh needs Senate confirmation, and this is not a slam dunk, and “Republican Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) have vowed to oppose anyone the president nominates to the role while the Justice Department is conducting a criminal probe into the bank and Powell,

Tillis could also use his perch on the Senate Banking Committee to hinder Trump’s Fed nominees from being approved by the panel, which is a key procedural step on the way to a full Senate confirmation vote,” they added in their reportage.

In what is now apparently a full blown political tempest, “Tillis and Murkowski’s support could be critical for Warsh with Senate Democrats unlikely to give him much, if any, support. Democrats are also fuming over Trump’s attempt to fire Fed board member Lisa Cook, whose challenge to the president’s order was heard last week by the Supreme Court.”

He has “accused the Fed under Powell of using independence as a shield from accountability, and said members of the bank should “grow up” and “be tough” in the face of criticism.”

There is more than affinity for interest rate cuts and a record of critiquing the Fed under Powell, there is this: “The nominee also shares close political connections to Trump. His father-in-law, cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, has donated millions of dollars to Trump and Republican candidates, and was reportedly behind the president’s quest to purchase Greenland.”

Some economists according to  USA Today said that Warsh may not be as docile as expected, leading us to think that in the foreseeable future, could Warsh turn out to be like Powell?

December rate cut: A holiday gift from the Federal Reserve

Wednesday's rate cut by the Federal Reserve had been anticipated by some in our earlier coverage, but seeing is believing, and that news came with no data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics due to the government shutdown, so the Federal Opens Market Committee made the decision with one armed tied behind their collective backs.

Consequently they also faced the dilemma of trying to meet its mandate of full employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent creating division among its members, with some saying hold back on a cut, and full steam ahead by others, creating a first for that body.

The drop in the rate went down to a range: 3.5 to 3.75, to 0.25 percentage points. And The Hill reported that, “The FOMC approved the rate cut by a vote of 9 to 3, a smaller margin than the typical Fed rate decision. Fed board member Stephen Miran preferred to cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, while Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid called for no cut at all.”

It should be no surprise that Miran, an ally of President Trump, wanted the larger cuts a bone of contention between the president and Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell.

Even allowing for a plurality of views, “The unusual number and nature of Wednesday’s dissents revealed how hard it could be for Fed Chair Jerome Powell — and his eventual successor — to keep the FOMC united with the economy at a foggy crossroads” reported The Hill and added,”The last time three FOMC members voted against a Fed move was in September 2019, when the Fed cut interest rates to unwind a series of previous increases meant to stave off inflation that never materialized."

At Wednesday’s press conference, Powell said,“Everyone agrees that inflation is too high, and we want it to come down, and agree that the labor market has softened and that there’s further risk. Everyone agrees on that.” 

Other reports from officials say that inflation might be acceptable at 3 percent as a new standard, yet that shift might be more philosophical than reflection of a true policy, beyond the traditional mandate of the Federal Reserve.

With perhaps the greatest understatement he added: “Where the difference is, is how do you weigh those risks? And what does your forecast look like?”

Powell’s term ends in May of 2026, and Trump is expected to name his successor in the near future; and, it’s no secret that the two have differed on the role and size of rate cuts, and the president did give some of his characteristic verbal bludgeoning to the Chair for the past several months.

The dilemma that Powell has faced, as we have noted many times before, is the balancing act between meeting the mandate and taking stock of inflation, plus the adjoining employment rate. While inflation has rebounded from earlier years when it was over 3 percent, especially in a post pandemic world, the current rate is still high, and is especially felt by low income Americans during their weekly grocery shopping; and, many are feeling that the president has not kept his campaign promise of lowering those prices, inasmuch as any president can.

Meanwhile employment has remained resilient, if shaky, in the face of economic uncertainty, mostly attributable to the billions of dollars in tariffs imposed by the president, what an earlier era called protectionism; and, the effect on hiring is significant as employers are trying to make do with what they have on payroll, and increasing hiring only when necessary, creating a slowdown in many areas, health care and hospitality excepted.

Consumer confidence has taken a hit, as are the poll ratings for the president now at 36 percent. And, while he has portrayed affordability as a Democratic hoax, the reality of higher prices and the ever increasing costs of housing have many American working families deeply worried about their economic future, not to mention meeting monthly bills, and feeding their children.

There is some optimism by some economists that consumer spending is steady but it;s important to note, as we did last month, that the increased spending is supported by high income earners, but lower income individuals and families face the above challenges, thus the infamous K shaped economy.

Currently it is estimated that there is $150 billion in tariff money sitting in reserve and the the president has said that some might be given to Americans in the form of a check, or to help pay for health care, but economists don’t see that as a viable option in either case, with the latter forcing people to confront, on their own, the behemoth of American health care giants.

The role of politics cannot be underestimated in examining the American economy but there are fears that many hardworking Americans may be caught in the middle.

On Thursday there were the initial jobless claims and while there was an increase to the tune of 236,000 and allowing for some holiday volatility, following previously lower numbers of 191,000, there are cautionary notes, according to Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, who told Fortune magazine that, “Initial claims don’t give you a sense of what’s coming,” she said. They’re what economists like to call a lagging indicator, meaning they tend to spike after a recession is underway, not before it. Recent weekly readings, distorted by holidays and special factors, are even less informative.”

Nevertheless, as Yahoo Finance reported, “Weekly initial claims tend to be choppy around the holidays and will likely continue to fluctuate through the end of the year, but Thursday’s figures are toward the higher end of readings seen in 2025. Companies like PepsiCo Inc. and HP Inc. have laid out plans to reduce headcount in recent weeks, and nationwide layoffs in October were the highest since early 2023.”

The future is on the minds of many and Powell, playing close to the vest, feels at best that shifting into neutral gear may be the best option but then again, as The New York Times opined, ”If there are signs that the unemployment rate might surge, that would probably prompt more officials to embrace the need to cut rates. So far, though, most policymakers do not appear worried, nor do they appear to be downbeat about growth. Projections released on Wednesday showed that most officials expected the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5 percent in 2025, before declining.”

Tariffs are still on the chart and it seems that Powell, and others, are waiting for the first quarter of 2026 to make an assessment, perhaps a code word for “wait and see.”

Updated on December 15, 2025

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November Jobs Report Rebounds

Within a month, the US economy has turned the corner after the weakened jobs report for October that contained not one, but two hurricanes and a major strike that laid off 33,000 workers from Boeing, and while economists felt that was an aberration, Fridays report from the US Labor Dept. showed a healthy rebound to 227,000 non farm jobs, exceeding what most predicted to be at best, 200,000; but, the great news was that wages increased to 4 percent, and again exceeded inflation at 2.8 percent.

For those that have been watching the dial on the Federal Reserve, two things are apparent: one, that another interest rate cut is on the horizon, and two, the soft landing for the economy that critics derided, has seemingly  come to fruition.

Leading the job gains are health care and education at 79,000, 33,000 for government and 26,000 in the catch all of business services that have given a push to those related services.

Labor Force Participation remained the same at 83.5 percent, with a slight drop from two months ago when it was 85 percent,  

Unemployment showed an acceptable 4.2 percent, slightly higher than what was thought to be 4.1 percent, but does fit well with expectations of a slow down hiring, and some observers seeing this as somewhat inevitable.

“RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance that Friday's report reflects a "remarkably calm labor market" that is at full employment after accounting for October's distortions.”

That presages what most are seeing as positive gains after the October aberration.

One cloud over a calm sea was that retail hiring slipped to 28,000, that some are credited to online sales which have remained strong, even after the pandemic, but others note Marketplace are attributing this to the rise in automation, which on one hand has made life easier, and more productive for workers, but on the other, decreased the need for more workers, both behind and in front of the curtain, as anyone who shops the big box stores know, where there is one central checkout for several departments, and in one in which human is present there are the self checkout lanes, and even though derided by some Wal Mart shoppers does get you in and out of the store on a busy Saturday.

Returning to the Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance also reported that,“Entering the print, markets were widely expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December. As of Friday morning, markets are pricing in a nearly 87% chance the Fed cuts rates in December, up from a 66% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.”

"For the Fed, these numbers are going to be right in the spot of what they were looking for and they're comfortable with continuing easing policy at least at the December meeting," Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin told them. "This doesn't change the narrative that likely rates are restrictive and they have to at least come down a bit more at a gradual pace."

This may be good news for home buyers who have faced lowered mortgage interest rates. Zillow has noted that the 30 year fixed rate has ratcheted down by five basis points to 6.24; and, if the December 18 meeting of the Fed shows another interest rate decrease, things can look up for homeowners.

An oft quoted rule is that mortgage rates decrease with a strong economy and decrease with a weekend one, and they are already showing signs of trending downward.

While the overall report has been greeted warmly, there are some that are sending a cautionary note, especially regarding unemployment and the November unemployment figure of 4.2 percent, and CNN reported: “However, the unemployment rate ticked up last month to 4.2% from 4.1%, and a growing number of jobless Americans are taking longer to find a job — a reflection of a pullback in hiring. People are staying unemployed, on average, for 23.7 weeks (more than five months), the highest duration since April 2022, according to data released Friday.”

“The labor market is healthy even though it is, in the long term, trending in an unhealthy direction,” Noah Yosif, chief economist for the American Staffing Association, told CNN in an interview Friday. “What we’re seeing is really a K-shaped duality of outcomes for the labor market: It’s good if you have a job, but it’s very, very difficult if you don’t have a job.”

Layoffs have been mild in comparison and taking a wide range look, we can see that,  “With November’s gains, the US has added jobs for 47 consecutive months, making it the third-longest period of employment expansion on record.”

There is conconcer that if the declines increase a snowball effect could take hold. But, of course, much depends on the incoming Trump administration and what changes the president could implement, especially with control of the White House and both the Senate and the House.

The pending deportations of illegal immigrants, in whatever shape, or form could greatly affect the economy, especially in construction, where nearly one thirds of laborers are possible illegal immigrants, not to mention farm workers, long a haven for undocumented workers.

The elephant in the room are the proposed tariffs of 25 percent, on Canada, Mexico, and even higher for China, and has been widely reported have a detrimental effect on the US economy, and consumer buying which is the bedrock of the American economy. 

Suggestions that these are negotiating tools for Trump are, at this point speculation, but definitely a cause for concern.  If the so-called DOGE efforts at reducing government waste, a laudable goal, but if it includes layoffs, those could have a detrimental effect on national employment.

July Jobs Report dip raises concerns of US economy

The slowdown in the US economy, specifically the labor market, from the Labor Dept.'s July Jobs Report, released on Friday, has taken some by surprise, others by concern, and most seeing it as reasonable after several months of a hot, even overheated job market; and, is not entirely unwelcome for those that want to see the Federal Reserve Bank lower interest rates, and while some are urging caution, others like Sen. Elizabeth Warren are urging Chair Jerome Powell to come racing back to Washington, speeding forth in a fire engine red Corvette, to immediately lower interest rates to avoid massive job losses.

Lost in the excitement, or perhaps concern, is that interest rate cuts are done to shore up a sagging economy, not a gift to prospective homeowners, or those interested in opening a business, despite those worthy goals; but, it often seems as if many people have lost sight of that basic move from undergraduate economic studies.

Pushing that aside, for the moment, it’s still clear that July’s numbers are to say the least reasonable, and the worst, concerning; with an unemployment rate of 4.3 a slight downturn from the previous month, and the marquee unemployment rate of 114,000 non farm jobs is still nothing to sneeze at; albeit, a noticeable slowdown, especially with many economists predicting 175,000 would be the number, but, putting emotions aside, those high numbers that we have seen for the last 6 months were simply unsustainable, and while this is a note for the Fed to see what the data continues to show, before Powell, and the Federal Open Markets Committee, makes any moves to cut interest rates.

Let’s look at the heavy hitters from July: Healthcare still leading at 55,000 jobs, Construction at 25,000, Government (both state and local) at 17,000 and Transportation and warehousing at 14,000, the latter is a sure sign that the American consumer are still  wielding their smartphones and ordering online, and this despite inflationary prices, or so it seems.

That brings us to wages, which did increase 0.2 percent for the month, and 3.6 percent from a year ago, and while below forecasts from 0.3 percent and 3.7 percent, they may be shoring up consumer buying habits, on line and in stores.

Leisure and hospitality is still coming in healthy at 23,000, possibly attributable to the previous months higher wages, and more than anticipated.

Wages have so far kept pace with inflation, allowing those consumer purchases, the largest driver of the American economy, but July did show a decrease to 0.2, from what was seen as 0.3 percent, and 3.7 percent.

The main concern is that this tumble form last month was, as CNBC reported, “well below the average of 215,000 over the past 12 months.”

“You have to be careful in interpreting this data; it seems clear to me that there is noise in this report,” Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights, tells me. He thinks that the Fed is going to wait and watch the August jobs report, which comes out before its mid-September meeting, before reaching any big conclusions,” reported The New York Times.

Back to the 64,000 question, when will the Feds cut rates? After a Wall Street selling frenzy on Friday, and fears from many quarters that maybe the Fed has waited too long, most of the markets are now safely betting that September is the best bet for an increase and some are saying, it might be more than the traditional quarter point, while others speculate there might be the quarter point, and then others, opting for a second cut in October of another half pont; still others for a quarter point for the remaining three Fed meetings this year.

Warren said in a post on X that “Fed Chair Powell made a serious mistake not cutting interest rates, and “he’s been warned over and over and over again that waiting too long risks driving the economy in a ditch,” sounding more like the law school professor she once was warning an errant pupil, further chastising him “to cancel his summer vacation and cut rates now.”

As we have noted in previous posts, the balancing act that he faces is monumental, cut too much, and inflation rises, not enough, and stasis is eminent. 

Inflation has dramatically dropped to 3 percent, but those read hot reports earlier of this year made the Feds wary, and as always Powell is a data driven chief, no more, no less.

“Greater confidence” is what the FOMC needs and right now they don’t have it that the US economy can sustain its traditional target to to hit the standard 2 percent inflation. But the chair has noted, “we’re getting close to the point at when it will be appropriate.” And, that point is widely understood to be at the September meeting.