Political and financial costs of migrants in the US

The ongoing migrant crisis in the United States has become a definitive issue for the country and its elected officials as they attempt to grapple with the influx of over 100, 000 people mostly from Central and South America, after being sent to Northern states by Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott in August of 2023 and has also become a central issue in the November presidential elections, especially by the presumed Republican nominee, Donald Trump, as he attempts to regain the White House after losing to Joe Biden, indeed, immigration has become a central plank in his undeclared campaign platform.

Reprising his previous statements in the 2016 campaign, he has also told his base that the migrants are poisoning the bloodlines of Americans, and blaming the increase to President Biden, who has struggled with the burgeoning crisis, and has given piecemeal contributions to the welfare and housing of their families, as well as to individuals, while there is a deliberate pushback in receiving cities such as Denver, Los Anglees and Chicago where residents have fought against housing them in their communities; but, for some observers,this is ironic,since many are descended from immigrant ancestors.

Despite, or perhaps because of American nativism, seen in the New York Draft Riots of , 1863 and the resulting backlash against Irish arrivals (who were frequently lampooned in cartoons of the era), shows the receptivity of Trump’s message on ready ears. And, he has said, if re-elected, he would round up migrants and deport them to their home countries.

For many Americans there is no distinguishing between asylum seekers, protected by international law, and illegal immigration, and, as some in the national media have noted, for many, the facts don’t matter.

Recently overheard on a bus in Chicago, was an elderly white man yelling about polluted bloodlines by the immigrants, mostly who are Venezuelan, and blaming Biden for “allowing them in,” while some heads nodded in agreement.

Chicago has approximately 12,000 migrants residing in shelters across the city, of the more than 36,300, reported by The Chicago Tribune. 

Taking a wider look, and turning back to Abbott, he has sent, according to the Texas Tribune,102,000 migrants to Northern cities including New York, to the tune of $148 million from his state coffers.

For the receiving cities, the subsequent financial cost has been a burden and the new mayoral administration of Brandon Johnson, has struggled to keep up,bleeding cash, to the tune of $1.5 million each day. A trip last November to meet with White House officials for $5 billion in help did not materialize.

Federal help to migrants is currently limited to three methods: the Temporary Protective Status, governed by The US Secretary of the Dept. of Homeland Security for those people unable to return to their homes, and offers temporary work permits for Venezuelans, and others in the country arriving before July 31, 2023. Asylum seekers can seek work permits after 150 days of residence

Then there is Asylum, for those fleeing their home countries to evade persecution due to “race, religion, political opinion or other factors,” reported Crain’s Chicago Business.. 

The third is Parole, (separate from the criminal system) which the government grants to those people to determine admittance for humanitarian benefits, making them eligible for work permits. But, all three of these three routes are overburdened by administrative and technical challenges with the software used to access the program.

What remains is inadequate and the Republican dominated U.S. House of Representatives is reluctant to take a much needed legislative effort for fear of giving support to the Biden reelection campaign, but as we have noted before in 1965 the Immigration and Nationality Act favored skilled immigrants and family reunification rather than a country quota, and in 1986, the Immigration Reform and Control Act legalized “millions of unauthorized immigrants, mainly from Latin America, who met certain conditions.”

Since that time Congress has failed to pass comprehensive immigration law and new rules for asylum seekers, bringing us to this current juncture.

Chicago news stories of immigrant mothers reusing diapers, being served bad food, and suffering abusive staff has not helped Johnson’s efforts, especially since many from the city's traditional white ethnic communities did not want another Black mayor after the defeated, and much maligned, Lori Lightfoot.

Backlash from advocates for the homeless community has also been strident as have those from some members of the local Latino leadership, and individuals who protest that some of the recent arrivals are getting work permits, while undocumented residents have labored in the shadows, being taxed without representation, for years. A protest held on Saturday in the Pilsen neighborhood did just that.

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Adding further fuel to the fire are longtime Chicago Black residents, who have faced decades of racial discrimination, and feel that they are being discriminated against, and are being passed over, and many have expressed their frustration with Johnson for his help to the migrants.

As we were told some months back, falsely, by an older Black woman, “the migrants are getting $7,000 a month.” These sentiments echo much of the tensions in Chicago,and reverberating in other urban areas receiving large influxes of immigrants.

Money to help them settle in the States is a central issue, and at the end of February, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker rolled out a proposed $52.7 billion budget, of which he has included $182 million for the new arrivals.

WTTW, Chicago’s PBS affiliate reported that, "Leaders say that amount, combined with funding from Cook County and potentially the city of Chicago, is enough to cover the crisis through the end of the calendar year”.

They also noted that “Pritzker used amplified rhetoric to make his case for the funding, chastising Illinois’ three Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives for recently voting down a federal immigration overhaul “because Donald Trump told them to, and they’re afraid of him.” Pritzker also reprimanded Texas Gov. Greg Abbot for transporting nearly 36,000 asylum seekers to Chicago.

“Children, pregnant women and the elderly have been sent here in the dead of night, left far from our designated welcome centers, in freezing temperatures, wearing flip flops and T-shirts. Think about that the next time a politician from Texas wants to lecture you about being a good Christian,” Pritzker said to loud applause from Democratic lawmakers. “Listen, maybe some of you think we should just say, ‘This is not our problem,’ and that we should let the migrant families starve or freeze to death. But that’s not what decent Midwesterners do. That’s not what leaders do. We didn’t ask for this manufactured crisis. But we must deal with it all the same.”

“However, Democratic reluctance has so far kept the General Assembly from approving the $160 million Pritzker diverted from this year’s budget in November to spend on the migrant response. It’s expected he’ll have to negotiate to get members of his party on board with the additional $182 million, given that members of the minority party are openly hostile to the idea.”

Meanwhile in Denver local and state budgets are being stretched to the limits to provide basic humanitarian need after spending $60 million, and Mayor Mike Johnston has said while the early morning arrivals of people dressed in shorts and sandals left homeless on the streets is not a sight he wants to see, told USA TODAY, “we don’t want that to happen but we also know that we can’t provide an infinite amount of services. We’re having to pull back the amount of services we can provide, the number of people we can serve, and figure out how to balance the budget to get there.”

Strong gains continue with February Jobs Report

Once again the February Jobs Report released on Friday by the US Labor Dept. showed a strong, and dare we say it once more, resilient job market for the world’s largest economy, at 275,000 jobs created, close to the 200,000 number for private employers released on Thursday.

It’s no one’s guess when interest rates will decrease and Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, as we have noted previously, is data driven and will not recommend that the Bank cut interest rates based on a few months of strong numbers. At the next meeting on March 19 to 20, most investors expect rates to remain the same, but some are hoping in June for a decrease.

“We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably to 2 percent,” Mr. Powell told Congressional lawmakers on Thursday. “When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to dial back the level of restriction.”

The Chair also said,”The economy is growing at a healthy, sustainable, solid, strong pace,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during a Thursday hearing of the Senate Banking Committee.

“We’re doing the best of anybody. We’ve got the strongest growth and the lowest inflation of the advanced economies,” he added..

That of course, is praise, but it also sends a note that cutting rates at this juncture could prove disastrous in overheating an already hot economy, currently the rate is 5.50 percent, and even a cut to 5.25 percent would prove unwise.

This is also the third straight month of job gains above 200,000, and Americans can look in the rear view mirror and see those depressing figures of the Covid pandemic that resulted in so many layoffs.

There was a slight uptick in the unemployment rate from 3.7 to 3.9 percent, but with monthly fluctuations being normal, the overall picture is still rosy, made even rosier that unemployment is under 4 percent for the 25th consecutive month.

Average hourly earnings increased to 4.3 percent, “We’ve recently seen gains in real wages, and that’s encouraged people to re-enter the labor market, and that’s a good development for workers,” said Kory Kantenga, a senior economist at the job search website LinkedIn, to The New York Times, and “As wage growth slows, he said, the likelihood that more people will start looking for work falls.”

Significantly, the labor force participation rate, or LFP, for those of prime working age, 25 to 54 has increased to 83.5 showing that many workers who were on the sidelines, have returned, and some, with continuing inflation returned to work, even part time; but, this could be higher if the United States offered subsidized child care. That being said, more flexible work schedules, increased wages and benefits are retaining a core of employees.

The pool of workers also increased with the immigrants that have been allowed to work, and those preceding them, from countries other than Venezuela, peaking between 120,000 and 200,000. Should Congress pass a comprehensive immigration bill reforming what was passed in the middle 1980s, that number could increase, especially for the unskilled labor force.

Taking a more comprehensive look at the household survey, or known in economic jargon as the U6, those not working, compared to those who are, is at 7.3 percent, a closely watched figure by some, but is often overshadowed by the banner, or marquee employment rate, is frequently cited, by the media, as well as by government officials.

Who were the stars in this report? Education and Health at 85,000 followed by Leisure and Hospitality at 58,000, and then Government employment at 52,000, with the continued growth of Construction, that had decreased hiring in the past, but now reflects the11th straight month, coming in at a strong 23,000.

Anirban Basu, the chief economist for the Association of Builders and Contractors told Engineering News Record that this was despite the “high project financing costs” and “elevated construction service delivery costs and lingering recessionary fears.”

Despite some concerns among economists, most agree that this is a strong report, and bodes well for the economy despite public concerns that the economy is in trouble, but this is based, as we noted last month, on the high cost of housing, and food prices, but nevertheless it will be an issue in the November presidential election.