September Jobs Report: Come and Gone

If you missed the September Jobs report released by the US Labor Dept last week you are not alone with the competing news of Ukraine Peace deals, the burgeoning case with the pressure to release the Epstein films and broadsides from President Trump, it was easy to miss; but, now, with the Thanksgiving holiday a day away it’s time to hit the refresh button on what the American economy looks like, now that the government is open and the tabulators had enough data, due to that impasse to gain a windfall as employers hit the submit button for increased data collection.

To be brief, it’s still resilient, as the good news was continued with 119,000 non farm jobs, much more than expected, and an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent, the marquee rate, as we prefer to call it, and even the household survey showed a steady pace with the big numbers for the health care industry, and the steady drain of manufacturing.

What beckons in mid December at the Federal Reserve Meeting, where economists are predicting that there will be no rate cut, because of this stable report and the market has been strong, so there seems to be no calls on Wall Street for a rate cut.

According to Reuters, “Some economists viewed the rise in the jobless rate as bolstering the argument for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, while others said the better-than-expected job growth suggested the U.S. central bank should stay pat, especially since policymakers would not get another employment report before the December 9-10 meeting.”

While the September report, released late November, because of the shutdown, and the less probable release of October’s report, the Fed is at a disadvantage without the usual complete data, and the chances that the president might, or might not make a move to install his own at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics after he fired to the former head; but, with foreign wars, and interventions beckoning from afar, and Trump might punt on this appointment.

The good news is that wages increased at the same rate of 0.2 percent and 3.8 over the years but some see murky waters ahead with not only the absence of October but the revisions of July and August of 33,000 but, it’s equally important to realize that revisions are standard for BLS.

Layoffs are not seeing an increase but then again a surge of new hires is not occurring, but as is common knowledge tariffs, and their on again, off again have taken a toll on the business community, especially small business with employees under 500 employees, with where most Americans are employed and who don’t have the heft that the big retailers, such as Walmart have in negotiating lower tarrifs, and there are some who are worried in that community. It’s a given that business markets don’t like uncertainty, and the end game from the White House has not been evident.

One area that is still showing growth and that is restaurants and bars hitting 37,000 new hires but as economists have pointed out this is mostly supported by high income earners, and as reported this is a K shaped economy with those at the top of the bar with high incomes and those at the bottom with lower wages leaving an empty middle. 

With grocery prices still high at major markets, American working families are struggling to stay afloat with rent, mortgage payments and child care and the theme of affordability, seen in the New York mayoral race won the day for Zohran Mandami and now that term has entered the economic as well as political realm.

A common theme is that to maintain economic parity 100,000 jobs need to be maintained each month, but with cautious employers citing tariff uncertainty as a factor it’s an open question if that can be maintained.

"These changes complicate traditional interpretations of job numbers, but also point toward a labor market undergoing gradual, not chaotic, transformation," said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. "The key question for the year ahead is whether the economy can maintain this delicate equilibrium,” according to Reuters.

One category, professional services and temporary workers, once a boom in the 1980s, has taken a nose dive with September showing a decrease of 13,000. Of course in competition with health care, it looks puny, but some are hoping that post holiday numbers might increase but others noting that any hiring in the retail sector has already been done, and stress that historically those workers are laid off in January.

Full time workers may have gained a bump of 675,000 and part time with 575,000 and a slight reduction in those working part time, but preferring full time, give some hope to some economic observers, but notably there was an increase of those unemployed for 26 weeks, or more.

“September’s jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don’t reflect where we stand now in November.” told CNBC, thus complicating the work of the Fed in December.

Mamdani surge might energize Democrats

When Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker announced that he was going to run for a third term as Illinois governor, local tongues began to wag, and ponder, was he giving up presidential ambitions, or was he using this as a time to solidify his national reputation, after a series of appearances, and blunt criticism of Donald Trump, who in turn, has openly criticized him, and calling him names.

Pulling back from the optics, and the rhetoric, with the Democrats sidelined by the juggernaut of the second Trump administration, it’s going to be tough sledding for them as they attempt to make a comeback, and while it’s been done before after being in the weeds, notably with the election of Bill Clinton; but, they have faced an onslaught of bad publicity, which was ratcheted up when Joe Biden stepped aside, and Vice President Kamala Harris stepped up from the bench, to keep the presidency in Democratic hands.

As we once noted about the failed campaign of Hillary Clinton, the book has not been written on that loss, but we did offer a post mortem, of sorts, shortly after her defeat, it’s now safe to say that Trump won in no small measure by appealing to many of the fears and cultural concerns about Brown and Black people, immigrants, and especially trans people.

In short, the Democrats have a bad reputation, with the reality of Trump’s command of the culture wars in America; and, while some conservative positions  had gone underground after the Reagan years, only to reemerge decades later, Trump brought them forward in a defense of traditional values, and pilloried attempts, starting with the bathroom wars, by others to support these populations.

The great American culture figure, Will Rogers, once famously said: “I belong to no organized party; I am a Democrat.” Aphorisms aside, that may be the central question. What do they stand for? Who can they appeal to?

Framing those questions has become the $64,000 question, and Pritzker raising his national profile, stating pride in defending diversity, affording equality in education, and gender diversity might not win him points with the right, or even the extreme left, but, entering the fray in the city that defines much of urban America, comes Zohran Mamdani who beat out disgraced former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, in the recent city primary, And, in a city like New York, the shock was akin to the election of  American Bishop Robert Prevost to the papacy of the Roman Catholic Church. 

All roads might have once led to Rome but can the tables be turned to allow a 33 year old Ugandan born Indian with an unwieldy name to take on the most embattled and diverse of American cities, Chicago excepting? And, also one that has previously eaten and spit out lesser mortals as they attempt governance. 

Two parts of his plank that have warmed the hearts of New Yorkers are the “bread and butter” issues of historically high rents, groceries, and fears of subway crimes, to mention just a few. The response has been overwhelming, and it’s also notable for the absence of hot button cultural issues, perhaps echoing Abraham Lincoln’s famous words of a house divided cannot stand.

One significant factor is Mamdani’s attraction for younger voters, and as NY Mag reported a Marist poll gave Mamdani a 34 point lead, “among voters under 45”. Coupled with a younger turnout, “voters 25 to 34 have been the largest share of early voters among any age cohort, making up one quarter of the early vote with voters under 45 comprising almost half the early vote.”

If retail politics rule the day, then Mamdani walking from one end of Manhattan to the other, video crew in hand, before the Friday primary election, while his much older opponent, Cuomo, was reticent to reveal his schedule, speaks volumes to a new day dawning for a younger, physically abled candidate which has not been seen in the last three presidential elections cycles; and, while this is not a presidential election, it does give a sharper edge to how a Democratic candidate might perform on the national stage.

What might be held against him is the label of Democratic Socialist which might need clarification for some voters, especially if elected and a crop of similarly identified voters are also running for office; but, then again, we've seen this before nationally, with the run of Bernie Sanders, and his socialist tag that joined a debate about who was more progressive, a battle never won.

Then in 2019, there was a presage of sorts with mayoral elections in Chicago, that prompted The Economist to note the upswing in aldermanic races with a surge of Socialist Democrats to state, “Looking past the label, however American socialists are more progressive Democrats rather than Castros in waiting, and their rise poses more of a challenge to the Democratic Party than to capitalism.”

We may see that again, and already with the anti immigration efforts from Trump, he has already, along with others, been talking about Mamdani’s status as a naturalized citizen, and either deporting him, or denaturalizing him, a lengthy process that could rattle his primacy.

Up for grabs, in any local, or national election is the Black vote, something that has factored into the success of any Democratic president since the 1960s, and in the last presidential election played a role in Trump’s victory where more Black men, younger, voted for him giving him a decisive edge.

If we take a look at Mamdani and his voters we see that, early as it is, “young Black voters appear to have gone decisively for him in the NYC primary. According to one primary exit poll (with a small sample size), about 70 percent of Black voters under 50 voted for Mamdani citywide,” according to The Intercept.

For a national candidate, the focus on bread and butter issues can take a sharp turn towards success. but despite accusations of taking the Black vote for granted, the future for Democrats may have to take a turn from traditional transactional strategies to recognizing that Black communities are not monolithic.

It’s apparent that for voters youth matters, and while younger Black voters are turning out for Mamdani, there is also a surge within Democratic circles for Patrick Roath, a young 38 year old candidate vying to win a House seat from incumbent Stephen Lynch, 70, who some voters feel is not only youthful enough, but not as progressive as they need, or desire, as a force against Trump.

Roath, much like Mamdani, is pushing hard for those same “bread and butter” issues that he feels are most important for voters in Massachusetts, such as affordable housing access to jobs. but also to return and redefine the issues for Democrats, admittedly no small feat, in and of itself. 

While some may see this as a way to regain the ground lost in 2024, a return to party roots, Rogers infamous quote aside, may have some traction, especially in the midterms next year, and especially as the president is coming under close scrutiny for his alleged involvement with pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, a story that seems to have legs, to use the old newspaperman jargon.

That  aside, considering Roath as an example, there may be some good old fashioned youthful New Frontier “vigah” for his campaign, than establishment stalwarts such as Pritzker.

Part and parcel of Roath’s energy comes also from his moral outrage of the Trump detentions, and deportations, of undocumented immigrants, as the administration attempts to meet a goal of 3,000 deportations each day.

When we take a look at the high cost of housing, especially on the  East Coast as well as across the nation, voters may wonder why this is not a priority of the president. Then add healthcare, or more specifically, the potential loss of 11 million Medicaid recipients from “The Big Beautiful Bill” passed by Congress, then the die may be cast for a path forward.

Still there is some pushback against youth as a factor, and in an interview with WBUR, Bill Curry, a former member of the Clinton administration and Democratic veteran, seemed wary of a “bright and shiny” new candidate, and wants to stress past Democratic legislation, and achievements.

He said that there needs to be more than youth, but instead a return “specific asks” citing past successes such as Civil Rights, for Black Americans, backlash to the Watergate scandal, to jump start the push back against Trump.