Saturday, December 31, 2016

Presidential election dominated the news in 2016 - almost

 One look at national politics in the United States in 2016  and one is met with one word, amazement, at the election of Donald J. Trump at his victory over the hyper organized and well-oiled campaign of Hillary Clinton, a 30 year veteran of state and national politics as well as global in her role as secretary of state. While Trump, hardly holding a mandate with 56.9 percent of the electoral college vote, and with only slight changes the day they voted, the reality has brought disbelief, shock, anger, public demonstration. It also has brought a herd mentality for progressive and liberals, as well as politicians, as they struggle with the new president, and his proposed cabinet.

There is delight in some quarters amongst those Republicans, even those who disagreed with, nor wanted Trump as their candidate, much less president, such as Mitt Romney as well as Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, who are enjoying having one of their own in the White House, after eight years of a Democratic presidency; even as they were able to halt significant chunks of Obama’s legislative proposals.. Now, as they see it, is their chance to rid the country of their much hated “Obamacare,” even if it did help 20 million people obtain health care.

While much has been written about the presidential election of 2016, and will continue to be, let it be said, that not since the election of 1800 between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson has there been such anger, slander, accusations, in the race to the White House. The end result left the country and much of the world in shock, and the Clintons, and the Democrats, in disarray.

There were other major national stories as well, and here is a list of some that hold equal weight, and some that might have just gotten buried under the election news.

Number Two: Russian spies on the election, and in a new variation on Cold War espionage, President Obama threatens Russia with sanctions, in an already tense eight years between the two countries. But, this was also preceded when it was discovered that the United States also spied on the cell phones of world leaders, including allies such as Angela Merkel of Germany. This may be less of a beginning, and more of a continuation. Critics contend that the US has also intervened, perhaps not electronically, in other countries elections, making it less honorable than it might seem. In one sense, it’s all over but the fighting as the greatest technological goods become Machiavellian in their use. Or, as one wit has said, “the revolution is now televised, and we can hear it, miles away.”

Number Three: With much pressure and almost salivation, by some economists, the Feds increased the interest rate,  after near zero rate for a decade, with an economy that showed some improvement, even if wages are flat. The ever cautious Janet Yellen gave a soupcon of an increase with a schedule of anticipated smaller increments - at least two are expected. While there may be no immediate fallout for the average person, there is hope among many that this might help move the economy along to further gains. Yellen is also in the crosshairs of Trump who has criticized the roie of the Fed and also her.

Number Four:  The lowered unemployment figure of 4.6 -- decreased by 0.3 percent points and gave hope to many job seekers, although the figure, like all, must be understood in light of those who give up looking, or those stuck in part-time jobs but who really want full time. Yet, it was still good news especially for the outgoing Obama administration. The ghosts of Adam Smith may be alive but where can it take the US? More arm twisting by Trump? Thaty can only take the nation so far. Time will tell, say most economists and financial analysts as well as Wall Street financiers.

Number Five: With many U.S. companies moving headquarters overseas to take advantage of lowered corporate tax rates, the Obama administration, who had labelled those moves as unpatriotic, came down hard on those that did and the result was a move that squelched a big deal between pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and Allergan. The so-called inversions, were a necessary move by corporations, say defenders, in a U.S. tax code that has not seen revision since the Kennedy administration. Trump has said that he will lower the rate, and maybe toss out the revisions by U.S. Secretary Jacob Lew.

Number Six: In a welcomed move U.S. Housing Prices have increased, in no small measure in the belief that Trump’s talk about tax cuts, and an increase in infrastructure spending may increase economic growth and inflation; maybe even hitting the targets that the Federal Reserve Board looks at. Standard and Poor’s Corelogic Case-Shiller in their 20 city index shows a 5.1 percent increase from October, and after a 5 percent increase in September. Seattle rings in at the highest with 10.7 percent and Portland at 10.3, but Chicago lags at 3.9 percent, only New York and Washington D.C. were in that group.. But, with growth at the top end, where will that leave those in the middle, or even the lower middle for affordable housing?


Monday, December 19, 2016

Electoral votes are in, and so is Donald Trump

Continuing the drama of the 2016 presidential election campaign, the electoral college, a unique staple of the American democracy began on Monday, to meet in their respective state capitals, and cast their votes, for either the president elect, Donald Trump, or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Much like the campaign, which began, seemingly, years ago, this aspect is not without controversy, as it, at least in the last few decades has chosen candidates who have lost the popular vote, most Democrats, notably Al Gore in the 2000 election, and now Clinton.

While no one seriously believes that the vote will tilt away from Trump to Clinton, it has given the atmosphere a highly charged atmosphere, of both partisanship and party loyalty, in what was one of the most divisive elections since 1800, which galvanized our current two party dyad, of Republican and Democrat, and the demise of the Federalist party. It also ushered in the tradition of negativity in U.S. politics that is almost expected, and nearly welcomed by the electorate.

There are 538 electors who are generally, though not always, party stalwarts either holding elective office, or significant financial donors. They make a single vote, and that vote is certified (on Jan. 6th) with 6 documents, and can also be objected to by lawmakers, one for the House of Representatives and one from the U.S. Senate. With the exception of 29 states, plus the District of Columbia, where they are required to vote for the candidate that won the popular vote, the rest are free agents. Those who don’t comply, are called faithless electors.

Trump received 306 electoral votes in the election and Clinton got 232, numbers that are strong enough to help him win, and her lose. But, he won no mandate, with exactly 56.9 percent of the electoral votes received; the 44th largest popular loss in 54 presidential elections, since 1804.

This is not the slimmest margin of victory in the electoral college in the last few decades that belonged to George W Bush with 50.4 percent and then, closer to Trump, was John F. Kennedy with 56.4 percent of the vote over Richard Nixon, in the 1960 election, mostly based on negative reactions to his Roman Catholicism.

While many Clinton supporters, and/or Trump Haters, want the electors to vote for Clinton, the established process would require that the decision be made in the House, for President, and the Senate for the Vice-President.  And, with a Republican dominated Congress, it’s unlikely that they would vote for Clinton.  

As of mid afternoon on Monday, Trump was sweeping Georgia with the entire lot of 16 electoral votes. And in some areas, Georgia included there has been some deviation, notably Baoky Vu who departed from the GOP majority, and was forced to resign.

Grabbing social media has been liberal outrage, and even anger, at the continuing existence of the College, what President Obama ruefully described as a “vestige” at his last press conference. He also said, to the disappointment of some, that there could be an alignment that would work for Democratic candidates. Speaking from the White House, Obama said: “But the truth of the matter is that if we have a strong message if we’re speaking to what the American people care about, typically the popular vote and the Electoral College vote will align.”

Many Democrats and independent party leaders, and members are calling for the elimination of the college. The president's reply to these wishes was: “If we look for one explanation, or one silver bullet or one easy fix for our politics, then we’re probably going to be disappointed,” he said. “There’s just a lot of factors in what’s happened - not just over the last few months but over the last decade that’s made both politics and governance more challenging.”

Any change would require a constitutional convention of the states and a three quarter vote in approval by them, another unlikely event. What most have called for is a requirement that all electors be required to vote for the candidate that most won the popular vote, to sidestep the above scenario.

Some have also objected to an implicit racism inherent in the purpose of the college, and while there is some historicity to this -Alexander Hamilton, was no fan of a popular vote; the requirements of landhilding white men to vote was an issue, since black slaves were inherently denied the vote, as were women.

James Madison the creator of the famous Federalist papers admitted, in a 1787 speech, that Negroes created “difficulties of a serious nature.”

His solution was to created the model that we use today: “Each state has a number of electoral votes roughly proportioned to population and the candidate who wins the majority of votes wins the election.” And, in response, “Madison knew that the North would outnumber the South, despite there being more than half a million slaves in the South who were their economic vitality, but could not vote. His proposition for the Electoral College included the “three-fifths compromise,” where black people could be counted as three-fifths of a person, instead of a whole. This clause garnered the state [Virginia] 12 out of 91 electoral votes, more than a quarter of what a president needed to win, noted Paul Finkelman, visiting law professor at University of Saskatchewan in Canada.

The resulting inequality of votes continued, and in its shadows were states that were able to place their restrictions on the votes of blacks, despite continued amendments that freed slaves and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Now, all of the opposition, anger, and digging through the history books is moot, as at Monday’s end Donald J. Trump was declared the winner of the electoral votes, as he heads to the presidency, and his Jan. 20 swearing in as the 45th president of the United States.

Friday, December 2, 2016

U.S. November Jobs Report is still a mixed bag with unexpected wage decrease

Employment and Unemployment
The much anticipated November Jobs Report, was released on Friday, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the last before the Federal Reserve Open Market committee meets, in two weeks, gave a stronger showing in jobs gained, 178,000, slightly higher than predicted,  but labor force participation remained at a steadfast 62.7 percent ,little changed from prior months.. The decrease in wages, from an October high, weakened the overall report, and gave mixed results..

Wages decreased by 3 cents after the much needed bump to 11 cents in October, thus showing that employers, while increasing their hire rate, are reluctant to increase salaries, this contributing to an uneven growth of the economy. Still, some others say that this number, 2.5 percent higher than last year, gives solace.

The lowered labor force participation comes, in part from retiring baby boomers, but figures also show that there is significantly less participation from those in their prime earning years, from 25 to 45 years of age, with some economists seeing this as still a depressed economy.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC in Pittsburgh noted this is “a solid report but not quite as good as the headline numbers would indicate.” However, there was pleasure in many quarters for the 4.6 unemployment rate, the lowest since 2007, yet the story behind the numbers is not as rosy, because that number also does not reflect the number of people stuck in part-time jobs, who’d like to work full-time, nor does it reflect the decrease in the labor force participation rate.

More optimistic observers see that the average wage growth, even though inconsistent, at 2.5 percent, give rise to some joy, especially those in the outgoing Obama administration, who can feel confident, that after 81 consecutive month of private sector growth, they are handing a strong economy to President-elect Donald Trump.

Others less sanguine feel that the mixed results show that the economy to gain its pre recession levels has a long way to go. And, with the Fed's anticipated rate increase this makes many economy hawks cheerful. Add to that increasing house prices, and a growing consumer confidence, many see that the this 3rd quarter growth is a true sign that the economy is on its way to recovery, spurring the Fed to increase interest rates.

There are also others that don’t share this belief.  “There’s no reason to pre-emptively slow the economy down, given that we’re starting from less than full employment,” said Elise Gould, an economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute in Washington. “Right now, the priority should be keeping the economy on track and moving it forward,”  reported The New York Times.

Even more than interest rate increases, which are expected, most labor specialists are looking at the kinds of jobs that have shown the increase - mainly jobs for those that are highly educated and trained in a specific skill set.

For those without those desired skills, the outlook is bleak. Indeed, most employers say that finding the right workers is their number one problem to fill the 5.5 million job openings in the U.S..

Many displaced from high-paying manufacturing jobs in the past are unwilling to take jobs in minimum wage service jobs, yet paradoxically many do not see manufacturing at those previous levels and wages returning, any time soon.

Continuing from the Times, “Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan and a former economic adviser to Mr. Obama, said that manufacturing, while still a driving force in the economy, employed fewer and fewer people. More than 80 percent of jobs are now in the service industry, Ms. Stevenson said, and Mr. Trump should be thinking more about how to match workers with those jobs.”

This is not only a problem for the U.S., but is also a global problem say many

From the report, here are the leaders:

“Employment in professional and business services rose by 63,000 in November and has risen by 571,000 over the year. Over the month, accounting and bookkeeping services added 18,000 jobs”

“Employment [also] continued to trend up in administrative and support services (+36,000), computer systems design and related services (+5,000), and management and technical consulting services (+4,000)”

“Health care employment rose by 28,000 in November. Within the industry, employment growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+22,000). Over the past 12 months, health care has added 407,000 jobs”

“Employment in construction continued on its recent upward trend in November." (+19,000), with a gain in residential specialty trade contractors (+15,000). Over the past 3 months construction has added 59,000 jobs, largely in residential construction.






Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Trump's cabinet nominations reveal a swamp not drained

For many the old adage that “politics make strange bedfellows,” is an ongoing maxim, but if the selection of the Trump cabinet is any indication, then there are no strangers here, only those like minded men and women, designed to both keep and preserve the Republican playbook. In a seeming reversal of his campaign rhetoric that was soundly against Wall Street and its denizens, read Hillary Clinton, Trump has not drained the swamp, instead he has refilled it with those he once reviled -- career politicians and those seasoned veterans of official Washington.

Just as much of the country was reeling -- or applauding - Steve Bannon as White House counsel, and his association with white supremacists, and wanting women in their most traditional of roles, then came others: Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina as United Nations ambassador with near zero foreign policy experience, who during the campaign was Trump's most ardent critic. But, now she has said: "When the President believes you have a major contribution to make to the welfare of our nation, and to our nation's standing in the world, that is a calling that is important to heed," Haley said. "The second is a satisfaction with all that we have achieved in our state in the last six years and the knowledge that we are on a very strong footing."

If some were scratching their heads in confusion and saying, “What the heck,” then welcome to the wide, and wonderful, word of national politics where nearly anything goes. But, some are questing even that slice of conventional wisdom, and wonder if there is a method to his madness. Is Trump reigning in his critics to keep them away from damaging his nascent excursion into federal politics, now that he has captured reality television, or is he shooting fish in a barrell?

Those who believe that Vice-President elect Mike Pence is his Richelieu, might be startled that the neophyte politician, just might have a battle plan. Little is known of the inner recesses of Trump’s cerebral cortex, but conventional wisdom says that the Haley appointment and maybe even, in an even madder world, that Mitt Romney agrees to be secretary of state, might have something to do with keeping your enemies close.

In the not too distant past this was not unheard of --- recall Hillary Clinton safely out of the Senate (where she could have been an ardent critic) and as Barack Obama’s secretary of state, where she had to report into the Oval office. The youthful Haley, a possibility for an Elizabeth Dole style presidential candidate, in the future, might be better in the safety net of the U.N. ambassadorship, than a loose cannon, and critic from the South. This proves that Trump, unlike like Rhett Butler, might just give a damn.

What is certain are the targets in the shooting gallery of the Clinton-Obama legacy, are in the crosshairs, much like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan took apart, whenever they could, most of the Kennedy-Johnson legacy. First to go, of course is the Affordable Care Act, the so-called Obamacare, that has got more Republicans in a lather than the Burma man. Tuesday’s announcement that Rep.Tom Price of Georgia, also a physician, is Trump’s appointment for Health and Human Services secretary, puts the final nail in the ACA, as we know it. He is also feared to have a devastating effect on women’s health, should he be confirmed.

A bit of demagoguery doesn’t hurt, so says Price when he said: “There is a vile liberal agenda that is threatening everything that we hold dear as Americans.” Suddenly, it does not feel like Kansas anymore, nor does it feel like the days when Ted Kennedy and Bob Byrd sat down for a bourbon in the Senate cloakroom.

There may be a little “tit-for-tat” diplomacy here, since “many Republicans, including House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.), wavered in their attitudes toward Trump during his campaign, Price was a devoted foot soldier. In May, he organized a joint statement by nine GOP House committee chairs, pledging loyalty to Trump and calling on “all Americans to support him”, noted the Washington Post.

While Price is no lightweight, (and a longtime donor) ,despite his hidebound conservatism, Haley and Bannon seem to be there to counter any criticism of lacking gender diversity. Bringing up that flank is the ultimate Washington insider, so much so, that we hear a portion of the beltway might be named for her, is Elaine Chao, wife of the Republican majority leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and former labor secretary, under George Bush, who made her cabinet debut as an Asian American woman, netting Bush some diversity cred.

Her task, should she accept it, is to help rebuild the nation's infrastructure of bridges and roads, something that even Rome could not do in a day. But, many experts agree that there is work to be done, “The need for infrastructure investments is "undeniable," says Metropolitan Planning Council president MarySue Barrett. "The U.S. has underinvested in infrastructure for decades, and new sources of public funding need to be identified," reported the Chicago Reader

The problem occurs if a genuine bipartisan effort is taken with Trump, how much collusion will there be with the purported devil that wants to deport immigrants, (seemingly mostly Mexicans), and ban Muslim immigration, among other things..

With funding an issue for any president, some say that it might be easier for this one, but then the money needed,and at that level, may prove to be difficult Recently, “former Regional Transportation Authority chief Steve Schlickman notes that congressional deficit hawks are unlikely to approve a significant amount of new federal grant money for infrastructure.”

Not too many of us are unaware that education has become a political football,and perhaps no where has this been seen as with the Common Core, PARCC and No Child Left Behind, in reverse order. The move to school vouchers, and charter schools has been on the horizon for some time. But, they will take a permanent hit, with the expected confirmation of Elizabeth DeVos, who has been a long time advocate of school vouchers, a move widely criticized by educators as killing off the public school system.

A social conservative, the Michigan born DeVos is married to billionaire businessman  Dick DeVos, son of the founder of Amway, and as one wag put it “they have buckets of money,” and have used it support Republican causes, and their contributions rival that of the Koch brothers. They are also strongly anti-union. She learned her conservative nature, from family, DeVos is the daughter of Elaine Prince Broekhuizen, who gave $450,000 in 2001 to try and ban same sex marriage.

Wednesday’s news that former Goldman Sachs executive Steve Mnuchin is the choice for Treasury set tongues wagging more than ever, since this scion of the corporate world and Hollywood financier has promised to carry the economic water for Trump. The move is also widely seen as rewarding him for his loyalty to the president-elect.

Promising to dash trade pact agreements, in favor of bilateral agreements, Mnuchin has also promised that he will revise the corporate tax code and increase tariffs on Mexican and Chinese imports. So, goodbye to the TPP and hello to a muscular policy that has at its core an economic nativism.

His main plan, he states is a middle income tax deduction  within the first 90 days, yet the bipartisan Tax Foundation says while this can be done, Mnuchin and Trump’s other plans to slash the corporate rate to 15 percent, from the current 35 percent, plus reducing taxes for the country's wealthiest would result in a $2 trillion increase in the federal debt; and over a decade, and $3.9 billion after allowing the future incentive growth. The whole package of cuts would favor the top one percent, and corporations, not the middle and working class that Trump vowed to fight for on the trail.

If this all seems disingenuous, them welcome to Washington Mr. Smith.And, it looks like Mnuchin's Hollywood roots might be not far afield, as when he took over a failed bank in the Great Recession, and evicted families on the approaching Thanksgiving holiday, and locked one woman out of her home, by changing the locks during a blizzard.

Wednesday’s was also a joint announcement, with Wilbur Ross being introduced as Trump’s selection as Commerce Secretary, and as his deputy, Todd Ricketts co owner of the Chicago Cubs. Together their combined skills are to be used  keep the Trump campaign promise.

While, the 79 year old venture capitalist, defines the stereotype of the “old white guy” he was also a savior for Trump when he saved the eponymous Casinos from bankruptcy, making this selection a reward for saving his financial empire from ruin. Like the president-elect he is also thrice married, and has publicly declared that he wants a “radical, and new approach to government.”.

No stranger to controversy he refused to stop production at the Sago Mine, despite known structural problems, when it was under his jurisdiction. The neglect led to the death of 12 miners at the West Virginia site.


In the past, he has received mixed reviews on his success rate, but since this is largely a debt repaid, it’s hard to see what an alternate agenda may be, other than what he has stated. Yet his appointment rounds out Trump’s designs, with the pending marquee position of secretary of state, and says much about his much vaunted appeal to lower income, non-college educated people, who voted for a change in national leadership. Well, they won’t see it with this crew who are largely more of the same: political veterans, former Goldman Sachs employees, mostly male and richer than Midas.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Possible cabinet choices for Trump signal tone of administration

In what what has become a rite of passage for newly elected presidents, and a favorite guessing game across the drawing rooms of Georgetown and Capitol Hill, just exactly who will be in Donald Trump's’ cabinet has taken on a new urgency, with some forgetting, in their haste, to judge, to see that his timeline is just about par for the course, and that six weeks is actually normal for cabinet level positions to be announced, ever since the time oF Richard Nixon; who took the unprecedented step of announcing them all in those six weeks.

Controversy has dogged Trump along his professional career, and his step into the presidency is no exception.  Drawing the most attention, indeed the most criticism, by liberals, especially is the choice of Stephen Bannon as his senior counselor, has come under severe criticism for his white supremacist leanings, and his support of  the so-called “alt-right” media, his prior role as Breitbart News Network’s executive chairman.

Bannon has also questioned the right for foreign students studying in U.S. colleges their right to remain in the country, or to be sent back to their own. Trump voiced concern over these students attending Ivy League schools and then going home: “We have to be careful of that, Steve. You know, we have to keep our talented people in this country,” Trump said.

When asked if he agreed, Bannon responded: “When two-thirds or three-quarters of the CEOs in Silicon Valley are from South Asia or from Asia, I think . . . ” he didn’t finish his sentence. “A country is more than an economy. We’re a civic society.”

The term is suggestive of a white nationalist identity, and, now, his appointment seems fraught with challenges, criticisms, and a definite commitment to playing to Trump's base as he plans to deport illegal aliens, and in this light some sort of ethnic cleaning, say critics.

While most agree that Reince Priebus is a wise choice for chief of staff - especially for the near unbridled cowboy mentality of the president-elect, many in Washington are also noting that he might be able to reign in his more exuberant claims, and statements though no one knows if he will keep him away from Twitter, especially in the wee hours of the morning , where his trigger happy fingers might land the White House in whether an interaction scandal, or a domestic drama.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani slated for two possible positions, attorney general or secretary of state, might also be a way of stabilizing critics, yet he also gave several speeches that he was paid mightily for in middle eastern countries like Qatar, and where there is a potential conflict of interest.

His combat on crime in New York, during the 1980s would also come back to haunt him with his stop and frisk policies that tilted heavily in favor of men of color, often without charge; gave great concern to civil rights advocates, while his liberal critics were upset that he did not take the same ferocity and double down on repairing the city’s public school systems,which were in shambles.

But Giuliani's self redemption came when the city was attacked on 9/11,and his performance assuaged critics and earned him laurels for his job of both inspiration and leadership.

Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner, is begging for security clearance and a possible administration position, yet federal statutes forbid hiring close relatives. Kushner’s idea of not taking a paycheck,so that he can work, is also nixed by that same law.

This law was not on the books when JFK appointed his brother Robert Kennedy as attorney general, and met subsequent criticism by quipping: "I can't see that it's wrong to give him a little legal experience before he goes out to practice law.”

Jeff Sessions as Secretary of Defense or Attorney General would not be amiss, some say, and he has been a supporter  - and honest critic of Trump, on the campaign trail. And his long tenure as a state level AG would hold him in good stead.

For treasurer -- bound to be a top job - for the economically challenged Trump, Jeb Hensarling's name has been on the short list, but this is also the man who screamed at Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her recent testimony on Capitol Hill, before the House Financial Services Committee.

Women have also been on lists and one of them is Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, who, transition team members say, are enthused about, perhaps as a counterweight to the “locker room” tales that Candidate Trump crowed about on an OTR tape, that surfaced during the campaign..

Mike Huckabee could be be dusted off as a potential secretary of commerce, although this might face stiff competition from others, and former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is being considered for Health and Human Services, which might give him a bump later on in political runs. A former State level health and human service secretary, he is also an ardent foe of the Affordable Care Act, who made the state one of the most restrictive for abortions and where women desiring the procedure would have to undergo ultrasounds and listen to the fetal heartbeats, amongst other restrictions, before continuing with the procedure.

While there is ample time for the Trump cabinet to be formed, these early choices and signals convey what a Trump administration will be like, especially for foreign students, women, African Americans, and other more vulnerable populations. Only time will truly tell.







Thursday, November 10, 2016

Trump's election to U.S. presidency sends shockwaves of near disbelief, with Clinton's stunning defeat

In a sharp departure from what the pollsters predicted and what most, if not all, of the news media (myself included), predicted, Donald Trump is now America’s 45th president, to the shock of many in this hotly contested, and contentious, presidential election. Wednesday’s news that the former businessman, and reality TV star, is now the nation’s chief executive, seems as odd as chalk is to cheese.

His clarion call to a base of angry and older white men - who made up over 60% of his vote, gave credence to the cultural, racial and educational divide that has marked the United States for over two decades. As they watched the progressive and liberal legislators, and legislation, give power to women, blacks, and gays, to their consternation, they voted with near religious fervor on Tuesday. This was indeed, some felt, their last stand to stop the final anathema: a female president, especially, the spouse of the often despised Bill Clinton.

The election of Donald Trump was less a victory of party, than a statement of design, under the palimpsest of the banner “time for a change”; now the nation, our allies, and those that support an international, and progressive agenda, wonder aloud what the future will hold. Already, despite the polite congratulations of world leaders, like Angela Merkel of Germany, there is, we hear, fear, on what can, or cannot remain: International trade agreements, world economy, terrorism or tariff protection. Considering the mostly negative, even gratuitous verbal violence, that Trump gave to these areas, is causing concern from Berlin to London, and from there to Prague, and even Paris,

It seems that liquidity in politics is as prevalent as it is on the balance sheet, as it is on the stock exchange, and Trump’s electoral map bled red on Wednesday morning. Taking mostly the largest share of electoral rich states -- except California - and nearly all of the South and a chunk of the so called “rust belt” states. His final electoral votes tallied 279, versus Clinton’s 228, in what can easily be described as a juggernaut.

The black vote -- longtime Clinton supporters -- came in at 12% the same that it did in 2012, but needed to be much, much bigger to stop the assault; the Latino vote, while expected to be a firewall in most areas, especially Florida, proved to be inadequate to the white vote 59.5 million -  that mobilized a block to quell even the 65% wave Latinos produced for Clinton.

The rub was that when compared with the 71 percent Obama gained, the outcome was inadequate. The Latino gains came through demography and not galvanization, Nevada excepted with the election of Catherine Corte Masto to their Senate..

Wisely, Trump concentrated on the old industrial North as he he took Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - even with only single digit leads, a lead is a lead.

Clinton’s camp struggled with Michigan and Wisconsin and the results showed, where, for the latter, she got 46.9 percent, to Trump’s 47.9, a razor thin margin,but enough for him to win. And, for Michigan her 47.3 percent, versus his of 47.6 was yet another win for him, but must have sent tremors through the Clinton camp. Significant, say some, now, are those that voted for third party candidates,and if they were votes for Clinton just might have pushed her over the finishing line.

With 45 million people voting early, it was seen as a net gain for her and resulting, if not by a wide margin, at least a slim one (which I also felt) the air practically crackled, as the Chicago native seemed to hover, in the polls, beyond even what were modest expectations.

The release of yet another batch of suspect emails from Clinton’s privater server was as unwelcome as it was untimely, yet FBI Director Comey, in an advance copy of “playing by the rule of unintended consequences” forged ahead, only to retreat with some undoubted communication from both the White House and the Clinton camp. Some say that the die was cast, at that point, and the undecided, decided -- against her.

On Tuesday, just after dinner time, in Illinois, things looked good for Clinton, especially with returns from Texas and Florida, and then those leads began to crumble as the race became tighter and tighter, and as the blue nearly vanished from the electoral maps.

The final electoral count came at nearly 3:00 a.m on Wednesday morning forcing Clinton to concede the win to Trump with final totals of 279 for Trump and 228 for Clinton.

Hovering in the background was a deeply divided country that was holding the aforementioned issues in hand; some of which had erupted in violence, at rallies,as some had seen, even  as “old” ten year old election hardware crept hand-in-hand with software issues; that seemed to be a proxy for the events swirling around them.

There was also the angry chorus of Hillary haters, whose script was based on a decades long cottage industry against her, and built on lies, more lies and pure lies. Gender definitely played a role, but the litany had taken hold. In short, the narrative of "crooked Hillary" worked, especially those who felt this was the last hand they could play. Even, if, as the New York Times described him as an “improbable champion.”

Still others disagreed and one emailed statement from North Carolina said this: “I live in a swing state and I can tell you this was not about white male angst over trade agreements or economic displacement since so many of them are on Social Security Disability collecting money from Federal Government! The election was about change, racism, misogyny, white supremacy and antisemitism. Join reality.”

On the domestic side, the first item on the Trump chopping block will be the Affordable Care Act, known colloquially as Obamacare, not insurance coverage, as many mistakenly believe, but legislation that requires having health insurance and receiving tax subsidies, to pay for health care.

He can, as NPR notes, do it with, or without Congress, either by gutting it without redemption, or by altering its structure so much, that it dies a slow death. What happens to the over 25 million people that now have access to the most basic, and preventive care, is not fully known; although Trump suggested health care savings accounts and tax deductions, on the campaign trail.

Next up for a re-up, besides is the makeup of the Supreme Court, now that Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland’s name is one for the history books. With no moderate voice, and the list that we have seen of possible nominees, decisions that reach that august body will more and more lean to the right. Much now depends on Judges Ginsburg, Sotomayor, Breyer, et al.

With a Republican controlled Congress, it will be a point of conjecture, to see how Trump will work with Paul Ryan, as speaker of the house, since there is no love lost between he and Republican stalwarts, even such young turks such as Ryan, not to mention those who Trump has belittled and fought with. It’s a safe bet that he won’t get advice from George and Laura Bush, both of whom checked “none of the above” on their ballots, for their presidential selection.

In many quarters some of the more vulnerable people that the Trump administration has targeted: LGBT organization, Planned Parenthood, consumers are already girding up to preserve what has been a long slog to gain what they currently have.

Equality Illinois, a long established organization for LGBT Illinoisans has said, in a press release Wednesday: “What last night has confirmed for us is that the equality we have won to date is not guaranteed without our vigilance years,last night was so devastating because we have elected to the presidency a man who has publicly targeted immigrants, children and grandchildren of immigrants, Muslims, the disabled, women, and many others.  Last night was so devastating because we have elected to the vice presidency a man who served as a key architect in an attempt to legalize religious discrimination against the LGBTQ community in every facet of our public lives.”

Linda Diamond Shapiro, interim CEO, Planned Parenthood of Illinois, in an emailed statement said: "For 100 years, Planned Parenthood has faced challenges and attacks from people opposed to our mission to provide expert reproductive health care. Through every attack, we have come out stronger. We’re going to use that strength to lead in the coming days, months and years - for the patients who rely on us, and in collaboration with our allies across progressive movements."  

The incoming transition team has planned to remove the protections won by President Obama with the Dodd-Frank Act, and Crain's New York reported on Thursday that “Donald Trump's transition team vowed to dismantle the Dodd-Frank law, saying the 2010 financial reform statute "does not work for working people."”

In a statement on GreatAgain.gov, a site launched Thursday to articulate the incoming administration's plans, President-elect Trump's team said it "will be working to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Act and replace it with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation."
While Thursday’s meeting with Trump and President Obama was cordial enough aides made it clear that health care, immigration, and jobs “big league” jobs were on the president-elect’s hit list.
Among progressives, liberals, and centrists the election results bring a true sense of mourning not solely for the chance lost of the first female president, but the potential loss of programs, and legislation that has helped those most vulnerable in society. And, for many, that loss is great indeed.
On January 20th Donald Trump will be sworn in as the nation’s chief executive.