Ohio too close to call, Dems celebrate as GOP cringes

Scarcely three months ago, were most pundits, including our friends across the pond, writing off the Democrats after the crash and burn of the 2016 loss to Hillary Clinton, for president, by Donald Trump. Some called her incoherent, others, a liar, and some of those were Democrats.

Adding to the morass, and the stench of failure, was the charge that the Dems had no core, no soul, and that far too much of their time was spent on the same-old menu of gender-neutral bathrooms and LGBTQ ascendants, and not enough on why many Americans were dissatisfied with the government they had, and not the one they wanted.

All of that now is beginning to sound harsh, as well as untrue, since the Dems have begun to gain in the ballot box, especially in special elections, to fill vacant seats, even though the real test comes in the November. Midterm elections

In late May, Democrats held a 6-point advantage, but that was down from a 10-point lead in February, and some pollsters predicted that they would need at least the 7.5 percent advantage that they had in the 2006 election, to make any gains in November.

Wedded to those numbers is a strong need for a large voter turnout for success of any kind; and, while polls have shown that there is far more enthusiasm among Democratic voters, than Republicans, and as Domenico Montanaro, noted on NPR.org, if that was true in primaries and special elections, it would be “the surest real-time sign that of high water coming in.”

Looking from the shoreline we can now see the truth in his statement; there was Stacey Abrams, routing out an old-school Southern male rival, who allegedly, and inappropriately, engaged with an underage girl, sending revulsion down the line, and Abrams to the cover of Time Magazine.

Now the Republicans are planning triage on which districts they could lose, and which they could win, while the Democrats are poking at the low hanging fruit in what were once reliably GOP districts like Ohio suburbs, such as Westerville, where residents proudly admit to voting Republican, but now are auguring for better discipline, and against the person of President Trump.

Some crossed over to vote for the boyish looking Danny O’Connor, for a House seat that Republicans have held for 30 years.

His opponent, Troy Balderson, is backed by President Donald Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich but some rebuked him as a bland lawmaker without true appeal, yet others noted “The race was surprisingly close for a district that Trump won by 11 percentage points in 2016 and Republicans have held for decades.”

While Balderson, got 1,754 and O’Connor got 101,500 Ohio voting laws mandates that an automatic recount be done “if the two candidates are ultimately separated by less than half a percentage point,” reported The New York Times.

Upping the ante, Ohio media reported on Thursday, that “The tight race between Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson just got tighter. Election officials in Franklin County found 588 previously uncounted votes in a Columbus suburb. The result: O'Connor had a net gain of 190 votes, bringing the race's margin down to 1,564.

"The votes from a portion of one voting location had not been processed into the tabulation system," according to a Franklin County Board of Elections news release.

Balderson declared victory Tuesday night in the closely watched central Ohio race. But O'Connor says he's waiting for all votes to be counted.

That includes 3,435 provisional ballots and 5,048 absentee ballots, which will be tabulated by Aug. 24.”

This too-close-to-call narrative has everyone on the edge of their seats, since this seems to be a harbinger of times to come, and “O’Connor, has not conceded the race — he called it “a tied ball game” on Tuesday night — and is set to face Mr. Balderson again in the November general election.”

The showing that O’Connor gave was not only fueled by more than $2 million of advertising cash, but he did what we have suggested before, he talked about issues that Ohioans, and many others, care about: health care, (especially the demise of protection for those with pre-existing conditions), but also a top-heavy Trumpian tax plan that rewards mostly the wealthy, and threatens Medicare and Social Security, for everyone else.

Balderson, on the other hand, gave the usual mantra against the Dems, described then as “tax and spend” and now the troika of raising taxes, and abolishing ICE, and the poster child for their hate, Nancy Pelosi.

That old tune, even with new lyrics, is not working as Democrats are now enjoying a huge rush of popularity, along with success, in these elections.

“There’s a real likelihood that they not only win the House, but they win it by 10 or 12 more seats than they need,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, voicing publicly what many Republican officials have begun to acknowledge privately this summer.”

Humorously, but honestly, Graham, also noticed a shift, if not, a cleave, in GOP backyards, such as those in Ohio: “We’re bleeding among women and the enthusiasm factor for Democrats is worth 7 or 8 points, and sometimes more,” he said

Quipping that “If I was a House guy in an R+10 or less seat I’d be getting on the phone and raising money and putting a sign on my dog.”

We were once advised two things in our youth: first get the money, and second, get the money, and more GOP money is urgently needed, as the Dems are forcing them to fight on multiple fronts.

“Republicans are expected to hold a financial advantage in the fall campaign over all, the party is unlikely to be able to fund similarly expensive rescue missions in dozens of vulnerable districts — many of which have more forbidding demographics than the Ohio seat.”

This was just the tip of the iceberg, since “The Ohio results were not the only ominous signal for Republicans on Tuesday night. The party’s suburban slump showed up in districts far beyond Ohio.

In Washington State, where candidates from all parties compete in nonpartisan open-primary elections, Republican candidates posted limp results in three congressional districts, including an open seat in the Seattle suburbs and the seat in Eastern Washington held by Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a member of the Republicans’ leadership team in the House.

Among the seats that Republicans see slipping out of reach are those held by Representatives Rod Blum of Iowa and Jason Lewis of Minnesota, along with more than half a dozen open seats currently held by Republicans in New Jersey, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona.”

The skies seem cloudy, since “Every white, suburban district in the country will be a swing district in November, that’s the takeaway” from the Ohio election, said Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican who is being targeted by Democrats.

Taking it even further and moving Trump from the educated and affluent suburbs that are rock-ribbed Republicans can only go far.

The New Yorker recently noted that “Evidently, the thinking is to use Trump to boost turnout in areas where he is popular, but to keep him away from latte-sipping Republicans in the ’burbs. This may sound like a reasonable idea, but it’s impractical. There’s no keeping him away from anywhere. Whenever he says or does anything, he dominates the media agenda nationwide. . .  It’s fanciful to imagine that he could spend September and October whipping up his diehard supporters at rallies in places such as Charleston, West Virginia, and Bismarck, North Dakota, without entering the consciousness of Republican voters in the areas surrounding Chicago, Columbus, and Philadelphia.”

In another closely watched contest CBS News on the gubernatorial race in Kansas, said, “Kansas Secretary of State and Trump ally Kris Kobach is hoping to defeat incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

But with 87 percent reporting at 1 a.m. Wednesday, the race was too close to call. The two remained deadlocked with Kobach leading Colyer by under two hundred votes. That race may not be called for days.

If there is a recount, Kobach, as secretary of state, would oversee it unless he recused himself. He has not offered to do so, and in Topeka Wednesday, he suggested that he does not plan to step away from overseeing any recount. "The recount thing is done on a county level, so the secretary of state does not actually participate directly in the recount," he said, according to the Kansas City Star.

That has changed, and on Thursday night he said that he would recuse himself from the vote-counting process. Kobach told CNN Thursday night that he would be "happy to recuse" himself and would make a formal announcement Friday according to NPR.org.

“As of Thursday night Kobach leads Colyer by 121 votes, out of about 311,000 ballots cast in Tuesday's Republican gubernatorial primary, according to an Associated Press count.

“Colyer sent a letter earlier Thursday accusing Kobach's office of "giving advice to county election officials" and "making public statements" that are "inconsistent with Kansas law and may serve to suppress the vote in the ongoing Kansas primary election process.

Colyer requested Kobach recuse himself and appoint Kansas' attorney general Derek Schmidt to take his place in the process. As secretary of state, Kobach is the head elections official in Kansas.”

Less than 90 days to go, and this midterm election may prove if not to be a photo finish, one for the record books. Stay tuned.