Biden White House faces midtern worries

 

It’s less than a year away, but the midterm elections in November of 2022 are looming large for the Biden Administration, and there are dire predictions that he will have to take a substantial hit on his handling of the economy with the burgeoning levels of inflation, the lingering criticism of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the handling of Haitian immigrants, and that he won’t have Nancy Pelosi to have his back as Speaker of the House if the Dems are defeated.

Adding to the mix are concerns that he won’t run again, due to his age; despite a clean bill of health, as the oldest US first term president. If he decided against a second term, some are speculating that Vice President Harris has not been adequately prepared as a successor, and some, less than fans, are putting Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, as the candidate in 2024.

We’ll take a look at some of the more pressing concerns topping the list of concerns is gerrymandering by the Republican party to affect gains, even in areas where they are in the minority. And, while the act of congressional district restructuring has been favored by both parties, what is at stake is the slim Democratic majority in the House, foremost, as well as the Senate, where Harris is the tiebreaker.

Gerrymandering taking center stage

Restructuring voter behavior has taken center stage in the GOP and Texas Gov. Greg Abbot at the end of October seemed to lead the charge, shadowing the move to practically outlaw abortions in Texas, despite the fact that many voters do not want an outright ban.

Bret Jaspers of KERA in a spot on NPR’s Morning Edition, interviewed Bob Stein a professor at Rice University, who noted, among others present, that without competitive district races, the die is cast against an effort by opposing parties.

He said that, “A February poll from UT Austin and the Texas Tribune showed only 13% of Texans think abortions should never be permitted.” as an example of Republican control that affects legislation.

Economy matters

Moving to the economy, the Biden White House has struggled to stay on message, even after inheriting a mess from the Trump administration, and has fumbled with vaccination deadlines that were not met, and only lately reached their 70 percent mark where most Americans had  at least one vaccine jab.

With an economy that sputtered and started with fits and frustration, after the lockdown, the US has received the fastest recovery in ages, but second to China, not first, as the president recently noted.

There are still 4 million jobs less than when the Covid pandemic began, and many women, in the absence of child care have left the workforce to care for children, and, or aging parents, creating a yawning gap in the workforce that has lowered the rate of workforce participation, as shown in the October Jobs Report, from the Labor Department.

Reconciling to the public that those 10 million jobs for four consecutive months, contrasted with 7.5 million before the pandemic makes for hard sledding for the White House.

Record numbers of Americans are quitting jobs have added to the vacuum, where many have begun to reevaluate jobs that were physically demanding and required long hours, many of whom also were working shoulder to shoulder and feared catching the virus.

Bottlenecks, Build Backs and Inflation

Going from bad to worse is the bottleneck of supply shortages due to shuttered factories abroad (from fear of Covid) further hampered by lack of warehouses, staff, drivers and ports that have had long waits for ships to dock. And, while Biden has done all that he can do to keep ports open, and Transportation secretary Buttigieg has said that wants to make trucking more attractive, the long hours that they pull away from their families can only go so far.

Some recent news indicates that port delays are lessening and that the dearth of semiconductors has also increased, noted General Motors, “to keep all of its North American production plants running;” welcome news in early November.

As economists have pointed out, there is little the White House can do to make dramatic changes.

Next up is inflation that Biden’s critics are having a field day with, and blaming the near $2 trillion proposed social spending bill as contributing to it and while any government expenditures threaten inflation, the figures from the Congressional Budget Office and the White House differ.

The Congressional Budget Office has said that the plan, better known as the Build Back Better plan will increase the deficit by $367 billion over 10 years, but the White House says that it will pay for itself, and helped by greater IRS reinforcement of tax evaders, to the tune of $400 billion, but the CBO replied by saying that effort would only yield a net $127 billion benefit.

Janet Yellen, Treasury secretary states the opposite and that the bill will pay for itself.

According to The Hill, “The consumer price index, which tracks inflation for a range of staple goods and services, rose 0.9 percent last month and 6.2 percent in the 12 months leading into October, the highest annual inflation rate since October 1990.”

The fear is that the Republicans can drive this issue, and they quote a Democratic donor that said, “the White House needs to continue to get in front of the issue.”

For consumers there is anger and that any gains they receive in wages and sign on bonuses are eaten up by higher costs, topped by higher housing costs. 

This is especially true for low income families, and as Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said, “.. . to cover their commuting costs, grocery bills and rents are eating into the jump they have seen in wages.”

Recent polls have dipped to 42 percent for Biden and many observers are attributing this to anger about inflation.

Swonk added that “Inflation is sizzling and will likely get hotter before it cools.”

Feuding Democrats

Perhaps providing no greater measure of waning voter confidence was the family fight among Democrats ,with progressives decrying cuts to “cherished objectives,” according to the Hill’s coverage, with the social spending plan, but also airing the family dirty linen for all to see seemed more like a House divided, than party unity, and the grandstanding by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin gave truth to the sight that the fight was still there.

Now with House passage, the role of the Senate makes all wonder, but voter disenfranchisement is still present, and Democrats need to show “that voters can feel the benefits, or at least know  those benefits are coming,” before the midterm elections.

Virginia gubernatorial defeat and loss of morale

Equally ominous was the defeat of Terry McAuliffe for governorship of Virginia, and polls that had him leading, and GOP contender Glenn Youngkin trailing, badly. Of course polls can be wrong, dead wrong, (“Dewey defeats Truman” as a historical example) and even though the latter’s win was razor thin, a win is still a win.

The win was heartbreaking and soul shattering for Democrats, a party that had led in statewide races since 2009, and that Biden won in double digits, but it also holds a distinct irony since “history is on the side of the party not in power, because the Virginia election is one of the first chances for opponents of the sitting president to register their frustration.”.

Youngkin held Trump at arm's length distance and the Dems wanted to make the election about Trump, and the former’s strategy paid off, along with a handy wedge issue of the falsehood that Critical Race Theory is taught in elementary and high school’s, and an offhand remark by McAuliffe that the teachers should not be told what to teach was the final shaft.

The subject of suburban voters, especially women, as independent voters is now going to be a new epistle, and taking them as a monolithic block did not shatter the CRT myths, but did enough to scare voters, almost as much as the bathroom wars of a few years back, did the trick.

What didn't was the lack of focus by the Dems, not only in Virginia, but elsewhere, on state level elections and voter turnout, while many voters, including people of color, dismiss midterm elections as less valuable. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Vice-President Harris? A lost opportunity?

Adding to voter concern is the historic selection of a woman of color as his running mate and vice president, but whom many see, herself included, as often out of focus and his assignments, redolent of Biden’s own vice presidency to Barack Obama, but in a different time and a different place, they don’t work. 

An example is having Harris be a point person on immigration, an area ripe for failure and as the US has stumbled since the late 19th century, and beyond, trying to write policy amidst the vagaries of world wars, nativism and downright prejudice. In short, a great stumbling block for her to be attacked in a possible 2024 presidential race, especially for a prospective GOP challenger, such as former Vice President Mike Pence.

In the hothouse atmosphere of the White House where everyone is racing to singularize themselves, their boss and the press, Harris and her staff are at odds in an era far removed from California politics, and even from the more august senate, where those odds are now grist for 21st century social media.

As CNN pointed out in a lengthy piece, she often appears bland, and over-scripted; but under her own devices, such as the 30th anniversary of Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network at Carnegie Hall, she displayed verve, and some targeted shots at Trump, his Big Lie and at Ron De Santis and his gubernatorial counterpart, Abbot, on their new state voting laws, as an extension of the Lie; in short she was, even by the standards of jaded New York politicos, a star..

Please Mr. President, sir, can we have some more?

Up, up and away with US Jobs Report for October

 Friday’s report form the US Dept. of Labor gave an unexpected rise of 531,000 nonfarm jobs to the country, in October, exceeding expectations of 431,000 and with an upward revision of the August and September reports sending a balloon into the sky after last month’s dismal report; and, joined by a decrease in the general unemployment rate to 4.6 percent, there was joy on Main Street as well as Wall Street.

While there's still a loss of 3.8 million jobs lost since the Covid pandemic hit America, nearly all economists were unanimous in not simply their joy, but also the feeling that the nation was well on the way to recovery.

There was a lot of good news, and according to The New York Times, was that “especially vulnerable sections like hospitality and retail, where workers are dealing face to face with customers,” made gains, even while fears of getting sick are still prevalent.

“This was a strong employment report that shows the resilience of the labor market recovery from the pandemic,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco, to the Times

In fact, amidst the joy, the reality is that this concentration causes many to worry, not just employers, but economists and academics alike who fear that this is an area that does not allow for sustaining not just a national economy, but a strong middle class.

Most employers, nevertheless, are still grappling with finding enough qualified workers, and many of those employed in the gain area of restaurants and hospitality are reevaluating, (as noted last month), their net worth, and are discerning if it is worth it to work long hours on their feet, rushing about, with little chance of advancement, and facing the rising costs of housing and food costs (which have shot up by 3%), and most importantly child care.

One group, in particular, that has faced this challenge are Black and Brown women, who make up a large share of the jobs in leisure and hospitality, and the current increase of 164,000 would have been even higher, had there been higher wages, and affordable child, or even elder care.

For women, the results for October showed only a modest gain of 180,000, as this group on the whole, women of color exempted, also faces the challenge of child care, something that was supposed to have been solved in September, with the expected increase to classroom learning, versus the pandemic driven remote. Yet, the patchwork of school openings and mask mandate protests, dimmed expectations.

Overall the October labor force participation rate was relatively flat at 61.6 percent with only a slight increase for those aged 25 to 54, peak working years for many. A fact that has heads shaking, but many feel is directly attributable to the virus, and a reluctance, if able to work, fear based decisions, for some, as they work shoulder to shoulder.

Some employers are giving enhanced benefits, transportation allowances, and varied schedules and that has worked well for one hotel in St. Louis, Mo. cited the Times.

This mix and match approach is valued by economists, especially Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who told the Times, “I, as an economist, predict that will be better for job matches and a better economy in the long run.”

Largely, the problem is still increasing vaccinations among Americans,especially in Republican dominated areas of the South, where vaccination efforts have been politicized, and angry mobs have fought against mask mandates, and vaccination for school personnel, and first responders, and has now spread to Northern cities, such as New York, and Chicago.

Somewhat heartening is the greater rate of vaccination, where approximately 70 percent of the US has received at least one shot, and the subsequent weakening of the virulent Delta Virus strain has given some the impetus to travel and, return in greater numbers to restaurant dining, a fact reflected is the notable increase in food and drinking establishments to 119,000.

Equally concerning is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis  said that the US economy saw growth of only 2.0 percent in the 3rd quarter, noted The Washington Post, in late October: “The coronavirus tore through unvaccinated communities during much of the July-through-September period measured in Thursday’s gross domestic product report, eviscerating economists’ expectations from earlier in the year of continued rapid growth near the 6.3 and 6.7 percent seen in the first two quarters of 2021.”

Recently the Commerce Dept. reported that the economy grew by 0.5 percent, in the same quarter, with both attributing the slowdown to the virus.

What is now abundantly clear, to many, is that resolving the US economy will take time, and patience with increased efforts to gain greater vaccination, above all, but, also further legislative solutions to the country's most pressing problems that have been further delineated, and exposed, as a direct result of the pandemic.

All of this is set against a backdrop of supply chain problems: backorders of parts, whole merchandise, a shortage of workers, and ships sitting at ports, waiting to dock. 

The conundrum is that for many Americans the enforced lockdowns swelled bank accounts, not only with cash unspent, but a round of stimulus checks that many families, facing uncertainty, salted away, and are now spending it. And, they are joined by those at home still clicking away at the goodies on their computer screens. 

Optimism stil reigns and the decrease in the variant is one reason, and also that there was some forethought, with the coming holiday season as some “Businesses were able to build up their inventories — or at least slow the supply-chain bleeding — ahead of the holiday season, despite continued logistical snarls. People may have to be flexible on the exact gifts they pick out for friends and family. But they’ll probably have options.”