Israel Hamas War Generates Worldwide Protests

As the Israel Hamas war continues, well past the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas initial public sympathy  has turned away from Israel and toward Palestine as their casualties have mounted in excess of 20,000, far beyond the collateral definitions common to wars. While those boundaries have expanded so have the protests, and in America’s largest cities, Chicago to name one, have had sit-ins, demonstrations, and speeches condeming the killings nearly every week, some even on the same day.

While to a large extent these protests have been by Palestinian Americans, and their supporters, there have been many by Jews, as well, giving a multi shaded dimension to what could easily be seen as one dimensional, pointing to a complexity that might have become lost in the shuffle of social media, and press coverage.

On a recent weekend on Chicago’s posh Michigan Avenue, we noticed a truck emblazoned with multi-colored letters detailing the deaths of children in Gaza, with the tagline of “enjoy your weekend.”

In a curious manner the passengers on our bus studiously avoided looking at it, or each other; but., it’s no secret that the war has galvanized opinions on both sides, and people are becoming circumspect in both their speech, and manner.

That protests have notably taken a hold on college campuses, while not surprising, has taken hold in student populations that have heretofore tolerated uneasy, but tolerant alliances, such as the one at George Washington University with its large Jewish and Arab population, which earlier took the form of a projection on one of the walls of the Gelman Library.

As The Washington Post reported: “Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) at GWU projected multiple images on the Estelle and Melvin Gelman Library on Oct. 24, the GWU statement on Tuesday said. Jewish student groups among others have objected to the images, which were in the form of slogans, and described them as potentially antisemitic. One of the projections, according to photographs, was the phrase “Divestment from Zionist genocide now.” Others included “Glory to our martyrs” and the slogan “Free Palestine from the river to the sea.”

The group faces a 90 day suspension.

The most salient, and recent, media explosion occurred when three of the nation’s most prestigious universities had their presidents appear before the U.S. Senate, angrily grilled by New York Republican Elise Stefanik, and fellow Republican Kevin Kieley, who asked a hypothetical question principally of Claudine Gay of Harvard,

Jonathan Chait, writing for New York Magazine said in a recent piece:

“The question posed was whether anti Semitiic demonstrations would be allowed within university policies. All three answered well within the parameters of the question, but were berated, when they did.”

 

Most importantly, he noted that, “The job of a college president involves constantly apologizing and promising to do better. This week, several elite college presidents’ object of their groveling was Congress, which subjected them to a series of largely impossible queries about antisemitism on campus at a hearing everybody agrees went quite poorly for them.”

The question to Gay was,  “If you were talking to a prospective student’s family, a Jewish student’s family right now,” asked Kiley, “could you look them in the eye and tell them that their son or daughter would be safe and feel safe and welcome on your campus?”

She replied, “We are absolutely committed to student safety.” Kiley noted acidly that Gay had dodged the question, that he repeated it but received the same answer.”

“And it is true that she failed to answer the question — because there’s no good answer. If Gay says Jewish students would feel absolutely safe on campus, she is denying the problem. If she says they wouldn’t, she is telling Jewish students they shouldn’t come to Harvard.”

Segueing to one significant note Chait added, “So what does it mean to make Jewish students feel safe on campus? One way would be to crack down on anti-Israel rhetoric that might make many Jews feel threatened. That would be consistent with the methods universities have sometimes employed to protect other minority groups. But it would also be deeply illiberal.”

“A more limited and defensible response would be to police conduct. When mobs of students disrupt classes and make it hard for students to walk around campus without being screamed at (or shoved), that creates an intimidating atmosphere.”

While it is not our intention to go into the details of university policies, it is easy enough for the careful reader, or listener, to discern that politics have co opted the protests on college campuses, and Stefanik and others have gone beyond the parameters of student safety and rights to attack elite liberal colleges.

An acolyte of former president Donald Trump, Stefanik seemed to take a wicked delight as the chief questioner, even at the expense of attacking her own alumnus, Harvard.

Let’s end this discussion to quote Chait who said that “The presidents’ efforts to deflect every question about genocide of the Jews into a legalistic distinction between speech and conduct may have sounded grating, and Stefanik’s indignant replies may have sounded like moral clarity. But on the whole, they were right to focus on the distinction between speech and conduct, and Stefanik was wrong to sneer at it. A better criticism would be that colleges are failing to protect Jewish students by refusing to enforce rules of conduct. But that is different from, and in some ways the opposite of, the point Stefanik chose to stand on.”

Lost in these political theatrics are some of the facts, notably the death toll of fleeing Gazans with no safe place to hide (85% of whom have been displaced), and, many of whom are children, sick with typhus and dysentery, forced to drink contaminated water, in the absence of fresh, to merely survive; 360,000 is the latest figure to date. And Israeli captives are still being held by Hamas.

Add to the charges of rape and sexual mutilation by Hamas against Israeli hotages are the equally disturbing images of captured Palestenian men, in hiding, and forced to strip to their underwear, often blindfolded, and forced to kneel in the streets, or herded into the back of military convoy trucks, the rage, on both sides increases exponentially.

While few would support the horrors of war, with its wide ranging repercussions, it’s also apparent to many observers, us included, that this is a wide ranging, and multifaceted response that is generating more and more anger, giving less and less support to Israel.

If disingenuous responses, like that of Stefanik, loom large in the public consciousness then the background of calls for a cease fire are becoming engendered, even as the United Nations tries to negotiate a resolution to do just that.

As the New York Times reported:

“United Nations and other aid workers warned on Saturday that a new U.N. Security Council resolution calling for stepped-up aid for Gaza’s embattled civilians would fail to stop the spiraling humanitarian crisis because it did not demand a full halt to the fighting.

“The resolution called on the U.N. Secretary General to appoint a special coordinator for aid to Gaza and establish a mechanism to speed up aid delivery in consultation with all relevant parties.”

“But without a cease-fire to accompany the stepped-up assistance, aid officials said they cannot address the insufficient food and fuel entering the territory, the collapse of Gaza’s commercial sector, frequent communications disruptions, or the inability of relief workers to reach many areas because of intensive Israeli airstrikes and ground operations.”

“Right now, we cannot deploy humanitarian aid. It’s impossible,” said Guillemette Thomas, the medical coordinator for Doctors Without Borders in Jerusalem. “People need to be able to get food and water without the fear of being bombed or killed or shot at any moment. We need to be able to move within the strip to access people,” she added.

“The only thing that would be helpful is a cease-fire.”

The questions, and these assertions, fueling the frustration of those advocating for a cease fire are based on what they see as intransigence by Israel against any, and all, attempts at lessening the constraints that have led to the starvation and suffering of millions of Gazans.

Again from the Times: “Nor did the resolution immediately undo any of the snarls that have limited aid entering Gaza, including a stringent inspection system by the Israeli authorities, who say they want to prevent the entry of weapons or other goods that could benefit Hamas’s military operations.”

“Human Rights Watch this week accused the Israeli government of “using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare,” which it called “a war crime.”

“Israeli officials said after the vote that they would still screen all goods entering Gaza, a process that U.N. officials and aid agencies have criticized as cumbersome and slow.”

“The resolution maintains Israel’s security authority to monitor and inspect aid entering Gaza,” Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, said after the vote.

“Last week, after significant international pressure, Israel opened its main cargo crossing into Gaza and began letting aid in. That crossing, Kerem Shalom, was open for the first time since the war began for major aid shipments.”

Facing criticism by Israeli citizens, some of whom blame Benjamin Netyanhu for the Oct. 7 attack, there are also those who feel that he is not doing enough to free the hostages, a political maelstrom that might engulf future efforts by the Israeli government to end the fighting. And, added to the shooting of three Israeli hostages who escaped and walking shirtless down the road and waving white flags, the prime minister faces multiple accusations that he is doing more harm, than good, and not freeing current hostages.

For the United States, a long time, and staunch, ally of Israel, the country, as well as President Biden who is up for reelection and facing low polls, is becoming ensnared in a near cataclysm of criticism, and is being urged to force Israel for a permanent cease fire.

Illinois Congresswoman and Senator Dick Durbin recently faced off screaming mobs outside their homes, as demands for a cease fire, and the pain of area residents, who have relatives in Gaza became too close to ignore.

All of these protest seem to no avail despite pleas from the Biden administration to stop the seemingly indiscriminate attacks on civilians, and as of Christmas Day, an offer by the Egyptian government for a temporary cease fire, and future governance of the Gaza Strip, as reported by ABC News:

“Israel and Hamas on Monday gave cool public receptions to an Egyptian proposal to end their bitter war. But the longstanding enemies stopped short of rejecting the plan altogether, raising the possibility of a new round of diplomacy to halt a devastating Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.”

“The Egyptian plan calls for a phased hostage release and the formation of a Palestinian government of experts to administer the Gaza Strip and occupied West Bank, according to a senior Egyptian official and a European diplomat familiar with the proposal.”

Perhaps the most poignant note of all comes in an OpEd piece for The Washington Post by Queen Rania of Jordan, who wrote, in part: “Since Oct.7, the vast majority of casualties in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have been civilians. Whether killed, kidnapped or unjustly detained, each person leaves an unfillable void. There is no difference between the pain Palestinian and Israeli mothers feel over the loss of a child.”

November Jobs stable in U.S. with lowered inflation

Friday’s Jobs Report for November released the magic number of 199,000 new non farm jobs and a declining unemployment of 3.7, signals that the United States economy might just be getting to that long desired, and much anticipated, ‘soft landing,” that so many had hoped for, due in no small part to the efforts of the Federal Reserve Board, and its data driven chair, Jerome Powell; and the good news is a solid employment outlook with declining rates of inflation maybe no future increase in interest rates.

The job gains are due in no small part to the end of the striking auto workers and Hollywood writers, giving a bump that will no doubt be revised, as is standard, for these reports, in the December release, scheduled for January 2024.

Reading the economic news is a bit like reading tea leaves, and the convulsions that most economists have experienced is not due to a misread, but to an often unpredictable, and frequently stubborn numbers that frequently defied standard economic forecast tools that preceded these recent gains.

The Fed, as we have noted before, had a real balancing act: too much action would result in great job losses, often affecting low income workers, and incurring the wrath of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who had warned Powell months ago that she was watching him.  And, too little would create an overheated economy.

Now all that is left to create peace in the valley are lowered prices, still elusive, but President Biden, who is using these numbers as a plank in his reelection platform, to try and persuade the captains of industry towards that goal. But with high costs of materials and labor costs, plus a recalcitrant House of Representatives and an embattled Senate hamstrung by those pesky Republicans who are holding military aide towards Ukraine hostage for immigration reform over his head, only time will tell, and maybe yet another sacking of the speaker, can this be achieved.

A closer look at the numbers reveal that for November there were 77,000 health care jobs, and 49,000 government jobs both unmoored from the economy, and leisure and hospitality added 40,000 jobs, particularly notable as that industry had struggled and gasped over several months prior to get to this point.

Retail took a nosedive to 38,000 jobs, due in part, some say, to self checkout lanes, but that picture is murky, considering that Americans are spending money on goods, and some are stating that this is due to an abundance of savings, but there is no bright line around that assertion.

Overall retailers had announced 6,548 cuts for November, topping all industries for the month. But, the technology sector is the one that led all sectors in 2023 with 163,562, with 5.049 for that month.

Of interest is that the health care products industry announced 57,758 cuts in November, giving a twist to the growth in health care jobs cited earlier, mostly in ambulatory care services.

“The job market is loosening, and employers are not as quick to hire. The labor market appears to be stabilizing with a more normal churn, though we expect to continue to see layoffs going into the New Year,” said Andrew Challenger, labor expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger,Gray and Christmas, Inc.

Labor force participation has reached 62.8 percent, an increase in a number that economists watch closely, and that  previously hovered at 62 percent, nearly as strong as pre pandemic levels.

“This is encouraging for central bankers and the people getting real wage gains,” Nick Bunker, economic research director at the jobs site Indeed, to The Washington , and “It’s helping people spend more which is good for GDP growth and for everyone. It’s a win-win for a variety of audiences.”

In addition to the music in Powell’s ears of decreased hiring, wages have moderated, and in November that growth was 4.0 percent, reaching $34.10 an hour. 

And more good news: those people working part time, but hoping for full time employment, have decreased to 295,000.

Can there be a Thanksgiving in the Middle East?

It’s Thanksgiving in America, and as many families are gathered around the dinner table exchanging news amidst forkfuls of turkey and green beans, and other side dishes, and anticipating a slice, or even two, of pie, but tensions, as well as apprehensions are high in the Middle East as a pause in the Israel and Hamas war, where after the carnage of the Hamas attack on Oct. 7th in Israel, and the subsequent shootings of Palestinians in the Gaza strip, families are anxiously awaiting new of hostage releases, and prisoner exchanges, hoping to share a meal, of sorts, but most importantly the sight of a loved one.

This war has brought horrors on both sides of the divide and in America the war of words for and against Israel, amidst the death tolls of Palestinians living in the Gaza strip have created a series of horrors, both of mind and body, where the unimaginable has taken hold of hearts and minds, forcing many people to exclaim, to shout, to cry, to weep, and to to social media to explain their sheer frustration and anger, from rich to poor, from celebrities to the average citizen, we are all awash in dimensions of misery.

As sides are taken the images, and the news, has forced Israel, to a have a 4 day pause in the fire, brokered by Qatar, and pushed by the United States government, in the face of growing disillusionment, by some, for their support of Israel, as well as the last reported figure of 11,708 Palestiansn killed, but the figure may be far higher, since communication disruptions have hampered data collection. 1,200 Isrealis have died and that gulf between the numbers has created a grieving space that can never be filled.

The images of Egyptian doctors waiting to receive premature infants from Al Shifa hospital, and the pictures of keening women weeping into their hijabs has taken, and torn, much of the world, as are the worried and care worn faces of Israeli’s waiting for news of their family and friends taken hostages.

With a ratio of 3 to 10 hostages, released in the prisoner exchange, can this establish any sense of trust, or even an end solution for the end of hostilities, or lead to a future between the warring parties? These are some of the questions that are being asked, as the world holds its breath.

Women and children are being given priority for the hostages, and teenagered boys, mostly, for the Palestenians, imprisoned for a variety of aggressions, minor, some say, for throwing rocks.

Against this background the Israel Defense has taken the Al Shifa hospital to search for what they believe are the remains of the Hamas headquarters that they have said was why the hospital was attacked, as doctors tried to deliver babies and perform surgeries by the light of their smartphones, since Israel had cut off power, and generators were low, and what little power remained, had to be rationed.

For many, after the fighting has resumed, the question remains, unanswered for the moment, is what will happen next?. Can a two state solution be brokered, or when the fighting continues, is there a void never to be filled?

Can there be a space where politics can create a solution, many are wondering, and the UN HIgh Commissioner for Human RIghts Volker Turk has said, “There has been a breakdown of the most basic requirements for human values,”’ and “the killing of  so many civilians cannot be dismissed as collateral damage,” and that the result, unchecked, “is likely to be extremes and further extremes.”

October Jobs slow, with no interest rate increase

The US Dept of Labor reported, on Friday, that there were 150,000 jobs created in the month of September, a decrease of an expected 190,000 showing that the efforts of the Federal Reserve in increasing interest rates has contributed to less employment by the nation’s employers and also the decrease in inflation from a June 2022 high of 9.1 percent to 3.7 in September is undoubtedly good news for Chair Jerome Powell, as the country regains from the Covid pandemic.

The result was that he and the members of the Federal Open Markets Committee agreed to hold off on another rate increase for fear of harming business and consumers. And, the FOMC can pat themselves on the back for their careful calibration, as we noted before.

3.7 percent is still higher than the preferred rate of 2 percent, but with only a soupcon of new jobs in the coming months, full employment may be reached. But that’s the future, as working families still face higher prices, and a conundrum to that is that American shoppers are still spending, and spending. While no one person, or entity, can find the exact reason, what is given is that shoppers are dipping into their savings to buy, yet even more, and while consumerism is the driving force of the United States economy, can it be done at the expense of savings?

That  question might remain unanswered, at the moment.

The Hill reported that Joseph Brusuelas, chief U.S. economist at audit and tax firm RSM, wrote in a Friday analysis, “The economy needs to add only 75,000 jobs a month, compared with 200,000 a decade ago, to stabilize employment given demographic changes.”

This report and earlier examples show that recession fears are vanishing, despite some chatter about a “soft landing” recession on Wall Street, as well as Main Street.

A note of caution is warranted, as the lowered numbers also reflect those UAW workers that were on strike, totalling 96,000 in combination with other striking workers, but it also shows the strength of the American worker, in what will become a major force in hiring, as well as protections against inflation.

There are also those who were laid off at the time of the report which increased the unemployment rate of 3.8 percent, to 3.9 percent, but can have a deleterious effect on working families, and single parent households; and, as Nick Bunker, economic research chief at Indeed, told Hill reporters, “The rise in unemployment is concentrated among workers who recently lost their jobs and the job finding rate of unemployed workers ticked down.”

Overall, despite these concerns, American workers are better off than they were in 2019, and the median figure for being unemployed is 8.9 weeks, Brusuelas noted in another interview.

Backtracking to wages we see, as he noted, that while there was an easing of 0.2 percent, it is still, at 4.3 percent, it is staying ahead of inflation, making the upcoming holiday season a little rosier for retailers.

Notwithstanding the Biden administration was pleased with the report and attributed the success to Bidenomics, its campaign styled label, and in a statement the White House said, “Today’s report shows that Bidenomics is growing the economy from the middle out and bottom up, not the top down.”

With more than 13 million jobs added since President Biden took office, he is justified in claiming that he has added more than his predecessors. Economists have also noted that this is the 34th straight month of employment gains.

At the intersection of war: A child's death

The war that began when the Palestinian group Hamas sent rockets to Israel in an early morning attack on Oct. 7 has opened a declaration of war by Israel, and a surge of military aggression and violence not seen in recent years, plus death and destruction unparalleled in both Israel and the Gaza strip. What is to be expected are demonstrations on both sides, those supporting both Israel and Hamas.

Lives lost and shattered in both Israel and in the Gaza strip have created a deep sense of horror, and people worldwide are in deep shock and anger as pictures of grieving women, bloodied bodies being carried by stern-faced men make many people recoil in grief.

The repercussions have reverberated on both sides of the Atlantic, and the heated rhetoric has unleashed forces of prejudice, ignorance, and hate. THe first casualty has occurred in the stabbing death of a 6- year old boy in a quiet suburb of Chicago on Saturday, when he and his mother were confronted by their landlord whose anger was fueled, said his wife, by listening to conservative right wing media.

The tragic death of Wadea Al-Fayoume and the knifing of his mother Hanaan Shahin gave a face to the darker forces of war, long simmering resentment, a breakdown in central government of a sovereign nation creating an opportunity for an attack that led to shootings, hostage takings, and other assaults too numerous, and horrendous to name.

American liberal clergyman Harry Emerson Fosdick, once said, “The tragedy of war is that it uses man’s best to do man’s worst,” and the events that have unfolded in nearly three weeks have caused great anguish, pain, and prayers for peace in what seems to be an unsolvable dilemma that will have repercussions on an unknown horizon, as the “best” is the willful creation and use of weapons of mass destructions.

The irony of the tragedy In Plainfield, Il, was that the boy’s mother when confronted by her hate fueled landlord, screaming about the attacks, and verbally assaulting her, because she was Muslim, simply responded, “Let’s pray for peace,” whereupon she was knifed.

Peace seems a long range hope, and the intersection of the twinned evils of hatred and ignorance, amply fueled by a distorted right wing media, has now taken the life of a little boy by a man who previously bought him toys and built him a treehouse culminated in a deep wail of horror.

Set against the background of violence, both in Illinois and in the Middle East is the political alliance between Israel and the United States, as well as Iran supporting Hamas, and in Lebanon, Hezbollah. These alliances with each taking sides will need much more than the proverbial cooler heads to prevail.

Fears of repercussions in the region are justified, and taking sides, for either side of the conflict,has created a firestorm in social media, and unfortunately misinformation and pictures of long ago conflicts, some as far back as 2013, have added to regional tensions.

Facing an uncertain future US President Joe Biden has assured Israel of its longtime commitment to an alliance, but as Air Force Once approached Jordan for a meeting with King Abdullah II, and President Mohammed Abbas, a terrible attack took place Tuesday on a hospital sponsored by the Anglican (Episcopal) Church of Jerusalem. Hundreds were injured, and those being treated for inflicted wounds were accompanied by those seeking shelter creating a perfect storm of misery, and the meeting was canceled.

In an address on Wednesday, the president said that the hospital explosion was from a radicalized group within the Palestine region, but there are doubts as to the veracity of that assertion, since the analysis was done by Israel.

Biden has come into his fair share of criticism for standing by Israel, and perhaps that is why he emphasized in his speech that Hamas did not represent all Palestinians. Taking a careful path, he has to face a reelection and also those who simply do not like him, despite his record of achievement, and will look for any excuse to damage his presidency. 

Straddling that divide has also created tension in the White House among the executive staff, as Huffington Post Politics recently pointed out:

“Several staffers across multiple agencies, most of whom work on national security issues, told HuffPost they and their colleagues worry about retaliation at work for questioning Israel’s conduct amid the U.S.-backed Israeli campaign to avenge an Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, that killed more than 1,400 Israelis.

The fear is especially intense among staffers with Muslim backgrounds. On Sunday, presidential personnel office chief Gautam Raghavan organized a call with close to a dozen current and former high-level Muslim appointees to discuss their concerns. Some staffers said they felt unsafe voicing their opinions around colleagues, according to a person on the call, which has not been previously reported.”

In the local Palestinian community the anger is palpable, and in a statement released by the U.S. Palestinian Community  Network (USPCN they said:

“We also want to make it clear - this attack on Hanaan and Wadea, leading to Wadea’s murder, was caused by anti-Palestinian sentiment in the U.S. and all over the media this past week. Politicians, both Republicans and Democrats, have helped to embolden racist beliefs against Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims by passing anti-Palestinian resolutions, including our own city council members in Chicago, and uplifting law enforcement’s calls for “heightened awareness” of Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims in U.S. neighborhoods.”

Singling out major US media, in both print and online, it has become apparent to them that the air is burdened with the aforementioned hate and rhetoric, and the misinformation since the attacks on Israel have led to the death of an innocent little boy.

September Jobs Report was a Marathon

Chicago erupted in cheers on Sunday when newcomer Kelvin Kiptum won the Chicago Marathon, and as outsized as this achievement was, setting a new record, the U.S. economy in the labor report from Friday’s Labor Department, hit 336,000 non-farm jobs for the month of September sent shockwaves through the country’s financial markets with employers, and employees, seeing an unanticipated  surge

We’ve almost worn out the adjective “resilient”, and even “durable” is beginning to sound hackneyed, but  one thing is certain, the U.S. has turned the corner for a recession, and it's also apparent that more furrowed brows, and sleepless nights  are a certainty for members of the Federal Reserve Bank, and, especially its chair, Jerome Powell.

While opinions vary as to whether or not an interest rate increase is coming soon, many are saying that one is sure to come before the end of the year, and others less sanguine, say that market forces may be the water bearer for the Fed.

Wages, that figure most watched by many, had an increase of 0.2 percent, or 7 cents, and showed a slowdown from a year ago, of 3 and 4 percent; and, while this alone might not be the entire picture, the country has nearly returned to pre-pandemic employment levels, an achievement in, and of itself. 

The New York Times noted that this is the “33rd consecutive month of job growth, and the increase was the biggest since January.”

Once again leisure and hospitality led the rise, at 96,000 jobs, followed by government with 73,000 gains, with an increase in hiring, followed by education and health at 70,000, the latter attributable in some quarters to public education hiring. 

The soft wages do reflect, in part, that, (as we saw last month) employers are no longer feeling the need to offer financial and other incentives to attract qualified workers, and this maybe, just maybe, softened Powell’s attitude at the next FOMC meeting when discussing rate hikes are on the table.

Odds in some quarters are betting that the next rate hike will be increased, and a poll of some economists is holding at a 43 percent chance.

Again, the position of the Fed is precarious in its calculation, and Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab’s chief fixed investment strategist, noted to Bloomberg “It certainly shows a  strong labor market, but the pace of wage gains has been slowing, and this leaves the door open to another rate hike by the Fed. It’s a tough balancing act between subdued inflation pressures and strong growth.”

“This is a blowout report, and it’ll have people thinking that the Fed may pull the trigger on another hike before year-end, the selloff in rates be damned,” Omair Sharif, president and founder of Inflation Insights LLC, said in a note to clients, according to Bloomberg. 

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP in Chicago sees the bond market as doing much of the heavy lifting  for the Fed, but, “that said, the acceleration in growth justified higher rates and hawks will remain concerned about backsliding on progress made on inflation, as they meet in November.”

"The knee-jerk reaction to September’s surprisingly hot nonfarm payroll is that the Fed may have to hike more — but the details favor another interpretation. Household employment is weak, and the soft increase in wages and flat hours worked suggest labor-market conditions are not quite so rosy,” said economist Anna Wong, another Bloomberg sourced economist.

In yet another survey the odds have risen from 56 percent v. 46 percent for a November or December rate hike from the FOMC.

What may help, or not, in the calculations is the revision of  the two previous months' job figures: up 40,000 for August, and July increased to 236,000, giving rise to even more speculation. 

Whichever way we look, this is certainly a more optimistic view than a year ago, when the national economy could sway either way.

Housing Challenges Abound in U.S.

Housing that is affordable remains a continual challenge in the United States, and faces renters at almost every income level, with the exception of the ultra wealthy; and while it can be had, most people face higher prices, but both the rental market as well as home ownership is becoming a deep concern, especially for those living in higher priced locations on the East and West coasts.

The major obstacle for home ownership are high interest rates, established by the Federal Reserve Board to fight inflation, but it has also affected the rental market by increasing rents for new renters, while offering them incentives but preserving rents for them and those existing renters.

Additionally, economic uncertainty, basic affordability, and a tight inventory are also factors, and with the resumption of federal student loan payments in October are creating a perfect storm in the quest for affordable housing.

Demand has exceeded inventory in most areas, and while there has been an increase in new construction, often these are targeted to upper income renters, or owners, leaving many in the middle class struggling.

As a result of the rise in interest rates the traditional 30 year fixed mortgage has ballooned from a previous low of 5 percent to now just hovering at 7.3 percent, from late August, the most recent figures available. 

At the mid September meeting by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, it was decided to not raise interest rates, but an increase at the end of the year is a strong possibility, say many economists, and Fed watchers.

Forbes Magazine, on their website, reported, “Year over year existing home sales sagged in July for the second consecutive month, slipping by 22 % to a six month low, with all four major U.S. regions posting year over year steep declines, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).”

As is well known, the target goal, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, is two percent inflation, making potential buyers wary of what’s coming, as he continues the bank’s efforts to bring inflation down.

There is caution, said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at mortgage website HSH.com, who told Forbes, “right now, it’s more about what the Fed intends to do rather than what it does,” and “[W]hile not meaningless, another quarter point hike at this point won’t change the big picture much, as a lot of the 'damage’ from higher interest rates is either done or is already in process.”

Some markets have seen a decrease in rents, compared to a year ago in an analysis by CNBC.com, these areas “have not shown negative annual growth in well over a decade. When they did, it was due to a recession hitting demand.”

Now, impacted by those high interest rates for home ownership, there is a 94 percent occupancy rate in the rental market, and the deleterious effect on older residents, and millennials who are priced out of home ownership; and, while there is an increase in construction for rental properties, there is not enough of it to make a dent, and what has been created is mainly for high income earners.

Other sources, mainly CoStar Analytics, show that there is some negativity in the rental market, but it is limited, and has mostly been seen in parts of the Southwest, and in some Southeastern parts of the US, such as Austin, Texas, Phoenix, plus Jacksonville and Miami, Florida.

Other areas, such as the Midwest are showing increases, and this is especially seen in Chicago, which is showing high increases, where rents are now 3.6 percent over the market average of 1.2 percent, according to local real estate columnist Don DeBat.

New rental construction is, according to current figures, at 13,000, reaching an expansion of only 2.3 percent; and, again on the higher end, resulting in a substantial rent increase  for existing tenants.

It should be noted that the average rent in the US is $2,052, and the vacancy rate is 6.3 percent, as tracked by the St. Louis Federal Reserve using Census Bureau data.

For those people living at the poverty level, or those who have to spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing, their situation is severely strained. The cost burden as given by the Institute of Housing Studies at DePaul University in Chicago gives a bleak picture where both renters and homeowners are often forced to compromise on health care, and healthy food.

They also face a diminishing housing supply, especially in two and four unit buildings owned by private landlords who while offering below market rates, also own older properties where maintenance costs can be expensive; and, this is especially true in Black and brown communities.

The National Low Income Housing Coalition has stated that, “no state has an adequate supply of affordable rental housing for the low income renters,” and now with the increasing numbers of migrants, that creates further strain, especially in large metropolitan areas.

They also cite the figure of 293,354 renters that fall short of affordable and available for existing low income renters, and for those renters that are severely cost burdened, the current percentage is 73 percent.

In brief, the U.S. is short 7.3 million of affordable and available rental units. And, on the ownership side many of them are over 65 years of age, are of color, and struggle with many of the same issues that renters do.

It’s impossible to predict how these numbers will play out for the future, and as lawakers, and other officials struggle to meet the challenge, the interplay between local and federal government will be crucial.