Trump leads New Hampshire as Haley tries hard

Fresh from the Iowa Caucus the three Republican presidential candidates vying for the presidential nomination lined up in order, Donald Trump Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis all ready to face the voters and brave more frigid temperature to wind the hearts and minds, but most importantly the votes needed to secure the top spot.

Trump is basking in the glow of his expected victory in Iowa, as the declared front runner and his supporters have done their utmost best to say, game over and that all the contenders need to do is pack up and go home. But, Haley who scored the second sport in Iowa, has not given up the fight, despite trailing DeSantis by 2 points in Iowa. In her determined and often ladylike way she has seemingly mastered the art of retail politics: an eternal smile, a sincere handshake and a mastery of quick witted repartee, whose one liners could put her as the lead in a local comedy café.

A memorable line when asked about Henry McMaster’s support and appearance with Trump, Haley quipped: “I’m sorry, is that the person I ran against for governor and beat? Just check it.”

DeSantis, has faced an uphill battle against the juggernaut of Trump supporters , all sporting their red MAGA baseball caps, and proclaiming victory.  In what some have deemed an inconsistent campaign where his often wooden like demeanor has held him aloof form voters, despite earning some bona fide cultural credentials as governor of Florida: the Parental Rights Act dubbed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill, creating havoc at the liberal New College of Florida, railing against Critical Race Theory (erroneously believed to be taught in grammar and high schools) and waving the rhetorical banner that Florida “is the place where woke goes to die,” was having a connection problem with GOP voters, and this despite having his wife Casey, an attractive and articulate former TV news anchor, humanizing him in appearances; but, all to no avail, so much so that on Sunday dropped out of the race, and has pledged to vote for Trump.

Earlier, he had said that he was in the race to stay and swatted questions about his sagging polls, and low votes. But, now game over, and the ground has been conceded to Haley and Trump.

With the field narrowing to a two person race, many are now saying that Haley does not have a chance, that she has not connected with voters, and that her dependence on undeclared voters in New Hampshire, and the educated class might give her a boost. There is a roughly 50/50 split between registered Republicans and undeclared (independent) voters.

The slugfest is now present with Trump mocking, mispronouncing and misspelling her given name, Nimarata, as “Nimbra”, getting a responsive guffaw from his base, but also showing the same racial dog whistles, this time for her Southeast Asian heritage, that he has always done, since 2016.

Haley on the other hand, after he said that she was responsible for security on Jan. 6th and thus allowing the violent insurrection that overtook the Capitol, in 2021 had to eat some shoe leather, since she was not in office and not in Washington, D.C. The confusion, as the media has pointed out, is that Trump confused Haley with Nancy Pelosi, the former Democratic Speaker of the House.

She pounced on that, not name calling, but questioning his mental fitness for office, a point well taken, and she cited her aging parents, saying “that I love dearly” but that mental decline is inevitable for older people. Trump is 77  years old.

Rising in defense of the former president, GOP officials said that the two names began with the letter “N”, a weak and implausible explanation, but Haley poking at the soft underbelly of Trump placed a doubt in voters minds about the wisdom of electing a senior citizen an appeal to younger voters such as herself, at the much younger age of 52.

Continuing the theme of age, she also took a bipartisan swipe when she told those gathered at an appearance, “The reality is that he was confused. He was confused the same way that Joe Biden was going to start World War II. He was confused the same way that he said he ran against President Obama.”

She then topped off her remarks by telling those assembled, “Do we really want to have two presidential candidates in their 80’s?”

Senior moments aside, the latest polls show her between 34 and 36 percentage points, with Trump holding a commanding lead in the 50’s.

The Washington Post/Monmouth University poll has Trump, as of Monday, at 52 percent and Haley at 34 percent.

Her hope, and it is just a hope, is that she could win enough undeclared voters to boost her numbers, but that might be a Hail Mary pass on this political field. Some have also noted that she might try to hang in and win enough votes in her home state of South  Carolina, but FiveThirtyEight.com has her polling there at 25 percent to Trump at 61 percent.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, told CNN: “if [Haley] loses on Tuesday, it almost certainly marks the end of her run.”

Iowa Primary: By the numbers for the GOP candidates

The late Tim Russert, host of NBC’s Meet the Press, was famous for his small whiteboard detailing the numbers needed to win the presidential primaries and elections; and, as the country heads into Monday’s Iowa Caucus, as their “first in the nation status”, the Republican Party begins the process of choosing its presidential nominee, we fondly remember that white board. And, while former President Donald Trump is the foregone winner, in the mind of most of his supporters, nipping at his heels,say some, is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Florida Governor Ron De Santis in a bid for that nomination.

In an election that seemingly began in earnest, almost two years ago, the stakes are high for many Americans, those wanting Trump to regain the Oval Office, and those that want Joe Biden to remain. Battle lines have been drawn, and the stalwarts are not shy about which of the two they want to see as president.

Lest those supporters get ahead of themselves, the American democracy has a process, primaries and caucus dominate, after the decades old conventions that used to be the stuff of mid century televised conventions, but which the GOP still uses.

It really is now a numbers game and the various polls require an examination of the numbers, and as many a political wag has noted, issues don’t matter, numbers do, so let’s take a closer look.

In an ABC average Trump “leads national primary polls with 60 percent of the vote . . . His closest rivals are 50 percentage points behind,with DeSantis polling “in a distant second place with 12 percent of the vote,  roughly tied with former Ambassador Nikki Haley.”

Trump then gains a 9 in 10 chance of winning the nomination they noted, with official selection being held at the Republican convention in July, where the delegates elected by contest across the country, and US territories will cast nominee ballots.

The electorate for the GOP has a cross section of populations, moderates, evangelical voters aside, and this is where some issues are significant to gain the needed delegates, as ABC noted 1,215 out of 2,429.

Issues that dominate are immigration, for asylum seekers, cultural issues such as transgender rights, hormone replacement for minor children, LGBT rights, and Critical Race Theory, all of which face mountains of disinformation.

Wedged into the battle for votes are abortion, and the anti woke ideologies that have been called out in Florida by DeSantis, who at one point was seen by some voters as a kinder and gentler version of Trump, but now Haley seems to be making that claim.

For Iowa there are 40 delegates at stake and both she and DeSantis need 22, and 26 to gain delegate majorities. One factor facing both of them is the severe winter weather that has brutalized much of the Midwest and which may keep voters away from the voting booths to avoid exposure to sub zero temps. Yet, Iowans are known to be hearty souls, but with single digit temperatures and sub zero wind chills, how much will that hold?

Using proportionality both the former ambassador and the governor need to get 55 and 65 percent of the vote, say pollsters, admitting that these are high numbers to reach.

In a recent examination by The Hill and citing an interview with DeSantis by CNN by Jake Tapper, he asked in lieu of sagging poll numbers whether his 3rd place standing might force him to drop out.

“CNN’s Jake Tapper asked DeSantis whether he would drop out of the race if he came in third place in Iowa, pointing to a recent NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom that shows the Florida governor trailing former President Trump and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley with 16 percent of support in the state. DeSantis said on “State of the Union” that he predicted he would “do well” in the race in Iowa.”

“And so these are folks who are very motivated. Our voters are very motivated. We have spent a lot of time in Iowa because we’ve gone door to door getting people to commit to caucus to us,” DeSantis said.”

Trump, ignoring the debates in favor of his preferred town halls, ABC pollsters said he needed 53 of the 197 Super Tuesday delegates, needing 27 percent.

Taking the math further, with his commanding lead, in an all state vote, the former president would score 2,120 delegates of a possible 2,287, nearly 97 percent they noted.

It’s no secret that Trump is knee deep in legal battles, taking official documents after he left the White House, paying of porn star Stormy Daniels to keep her silent about their encounter, inflating the values of his properties to score bigger and better loans,  etc.,all of which in another era might be held against him, but now only serve two things: to give him the profile of a martyr, to his many supporters, and free publicity to enhance just that.

With his larger than life personality,  and love of publicity, we get it, but what worries his competitors is will they get it, those numbers needed to remove him from front runner status?

Aided by Fox news, Trump seems unbeatable in another round of debates with President Biden, so some poll watchers and handlers are thinking of a mano mano battle in November.

What startled many political watchers was former New Jersey  Gov. Chris Christie dropping out of the race on Wednesday, making some wonder if Haley can capture those votes for him. 

A closer look: Christie had about 11.5 percent of poll numbers in New Hampshire according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ polling index and Haley “is polling 11 percentage points behind” Trump, so her team is probably chomping at the bit to get those votes.

She seems to have put her blunder about the causes of the Civil War behind her, though Christie had some ribald Jersey humor in his criticism of her ignorance, which she later tried to backtrack, and that seems to have worked. But the folks at the Hill have deemed this a fight between two moderates, now minus one. DeSantis seems to hang in there, but having lost the support of Trump, a long time ago, and with his aggressive stance, will siphon off delegate votes from the MAGA crowds is a central question.

The New York TImes columnist Nate Cohn says not, but notes thee is precedence for potential winds citing, “there's a lot of precedence for surging candidates to keep gaining, especially over a contest’s final days. With Mr. Trump at just 42 percent of the vote, there’s no reason to think her path is closed off.”

What remains at stake are not only Christie’s supporters, but the “never Trump” crowd, the moderates, the independents, suburban Republican college educated mothers, and those that might take a back seat in Iowa, even though Trump does hold substantial leads.

As expected Trump did win the Iowa Caucus with the support of rural, white, non college educated people, many of whom identified as Evangelicals, with 51 percent of the vote, along with 21 percent for De Santis, and 19 for Haley.

Voter turnout out was lighter than for previous caucuses, with 110,000 voters, of the nearly 752,000 registered Republicans, which many are attributing to the severe winter weather and deep snowfalls, as well as some voter apathy, but in the end Trump won 20 delegates, 8 for De Santis, and 7 for Haley.

Updated Jan. 19, 2024 at 9:40 a.m. CST

December 2023 Jobs Explosion

Strong, steady, and resilient are some of the adjectives used to describe the U.S. economy in the recent December Jobs Report from the U.S. Dept. of Labor on Friday. It exceeded expectations with 216,000 non farm jobs, when 170,000 were expected, and whatever adjective those reading the report used, weak was not one of them.

Added to that figure was the unemployment rate of 3.7 and wages that showed an average hourly increase of 0.4 percent bringing a total of 4.1 percent  and fueling the goods news was that despite inflation, these high wages allowed many people to say ahead of inflation, which reached 3.1 percent; and, consumer spending, the traditional driver of the American economy became the bellwether for December.

A grace note: those wages totaled 4.3 percent for 2023, “the third highest level since 2008,” said The Washington Post.

This report also put to rest those Cassandra-like predictions of recession that populated the national media, only to be slayed.

Reaching historic standards, the unemployment figure is the largest stretch that we have seen since the mid 1960s, noted The Hill in its coverage.

Notable, and not surprising, was the rejoicing from the Biden administration, as he ramps up his reelection bid for a second term in the White House, and to note 14 million jobs have been created on his watch.

While the term Bidenomics might not mean much to Joe, or Jane Average, higher wages to meet, and exceed inflationary prices do.

“Wages and consumer confidence are up, the economy is growing, and in 2024 President Biden and Democrats will keep working to lower costs and get working families more breathing room,” said House Budget Committee member Brendan Boyle (D.Pa) in a call to reporters.

Even as far back as October Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, told usbank.com that the increases he saw then was because “consumer spending remains strong, which is driving the surprising level of growth we’ve seen.”

Taking a closer look at the numbers we do see that labor force participation edged slightly downwards to 62.5 percent, from 62.8, with a total figure of 700.000, one that the Federal Reserve Board will be closely watching.

The winners were health care climbing to 38,000, government to 52,000, and retail to 17,000 giving a solid showing to the holiday season.

On the losing side was transportation and housing down to 23,000, attributable, in part to higher interest rates, and  perhaps a pattern of vehicular sales tilted to SUVs rather than sedans.

Despite the good news, some economists noted that the total number of jobs for 2023 was 2.7 million, contrasted to the two prior years that surged after the pandemic, with gains in rehiring, but the records show that, 2015 excepting, these are still very strong numbers.

 

For Jerome Powell and the members of the Federal Reserve Board, the slowing of wages,coming down from those hot years, is welcome news. And, this concern is warranted since wages this healthy could lead to a broader spectrum pushing prices upward  that might lead to another round of inflation

It is important to note, as is the custom, December's numbers will be revised, probably downward, and reflected in the January report.

Finally, the cut for interest rates, anticipated for March, will probably not be seen until May in a survey of many economists, given that Powell is known to be data driven.