For President Biden: How old is too old?

In the first 6 weeks of the new year, and with the ever increasing presidential election of 2024, one of the most overheated of political rhetoric has been the age of President Biden, and despite assurances from Democratic stalwarts who have dismissed this as unwarranted  political warfare, it has garnered headlines; and, then Republican presidential hopeful former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley, taking potshots at rival Donald Trump for confusing her with Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of the House of Representatives, stating that if you asked any doctor they will tell you of the mental decline of those in their late 70s and 80s, a de facto acknowledgment of the ages of Trump and Biden, the former 77 years and the latter 81.

The clincher came last week when Special Counsel Robert Hur charged with investigating whether Biden would face criminal malfeasance for holding confidential papers from his days as vice president labeled him, our words, as a nice old man whole memory was so faulty he could not remember when his son Beau died.

It can be easily stated that this was not Biden’s week, and the claim that he could not remember his son’s death from brain cancer in 2015 seemed a low blow and caused a great deal of personal grief as he stated in the aftermath when according to the Associated Press, “And in response to Hur’s portrayal of him, Biden insisted to reporters that “My memory is fine,” and said he believes he remains the most qualified person to serve as president.

“How in the hell dare he raise that?” Biden asked about Hur’s comments regarding his son’s death, saying he didn’t believe it was any of Hur’s business.”

While Haley’s remarks, Hur’s opinion, and a slew of media coverage including the ribald, and often off color jokes that we have heard at bus stops, and in shops, gave us pause to examine outside of the rhetoric, the name calling, and the GOP baits: how old is too old, not only for the nation’s chief executive, but also in society in general, and in a society where men and women in their 70s and 80s are leading productive lives, and often working full time.

We also have often seen 90 year old's  described as the “new 40”. It was at this point we decided that there needed to be a closer examination of  age as a factor across the lifespan, especially in memory and intelligence; so this dictated a look towards the academy for a closer, more nuanced review, and away from political partisanship.

The basic questions remain: How controversial is age in the lives of 21st century people? How old is too old? Is cognitive decline inevitable?

A review of the psychological literature is revealing, and also moves beyond popular beliefs and even that of personal experience.

Let’s tackle some of the widely held beliefs, and yes, in early adulthood there is a peak,”for some types of learning and remembering” noted one psychology text, and research does show that as adults, younger people do have better recall said psychologists Donald Schonfeild and Bettty Anne Richards in a 1966 experiment.

Drilling down even further, within and without are not merely words, and psychological research has shown that there are minimal declines and greater decline, but it’s also important to realize that while recall can suffer, it’s not always age related, or even an interference in daily life, and with later experimental replications in 1990, it also seems that there are important distinctions in such variables as age, rural or urban home life; but, one conclusion stands out: older adults often have a rich storehouse of experiences to draw upon to examine, and weigh information, giving them a higher level of information processing that a comparatively younger person might not. 

Taking a brief detour from academic studies, and returning to the political arena, an older age political leader may have a distinct advantage over a younger one, temperament aside; so, if voters are taking an age stance in favor of someone say, two decades younger, then they may have to rethink that widely held belief.

Research has also shown that in some experiments 70 year old's can outdo 20 year old's, and perhaps lying outside that range, it might include people in their 50s.

It’s also been established in lab experiments that when attempting to recall faces while simultaneously performing another task, younger people can exhibit the same limitations in the standard identification of the prefrontal cortex (the area responsible for executive function and memory) of the brain as older adults noted Thomas H. Hess in a journal article, “Memory and Aging in  Contest,” in 2005.

Goal setting has also been established as a notable factor in retention, and “individuals are more likely to expend effort in expanding tasks that are persistent with personal goals.” 

The larger view is that while we “cannot generalize that older adults are more or less intellectually competent, we can’t say that they are more of less productive at work,” noted one psychology textbook, in a conclusion by Gibbon McEvoy and Wayne Casico in 1980, using a study of 40,000 subjects (workers) in 96 studies, with the text noting, “Apart from the inexperience of very young employees, age does not predict job performance.”

January Jobs Report hits a milestone

Another blockbuster report from the US Dept of Labor was released on Friday with the monthly Jobs Report, this time with an eye popping 350,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the expectations of most economists who were predicting 185,000 and an unemployment rate of 3.8, instead of 3.7 percent.

The fact the high numbers were spread across the board, in nearly all job categories made for another banner report and showed, as previously reported, that the US economy has regained nearly all the jobs lost with the pandemic, after a nearly 14 percent loss in employment since in those early days.

The news was not so good that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, as Chair Jerome Powell has indicated after the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but his caution is legendary as a data driven leader; but, some, including him, are hoping that will change in May, while others are not so sure.

He has said, “I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting.”

Standouts for January were professional and business services, a rather catch all term, say some, for a clutch of businesses, tech excepted, leading at 74,000, followed by health care at 70,000, which as we’ve seen has rapidly caught up with the pandemic losses.

The figure that was most watched, especially by Powell, was the wage increase of 0.6 percent, reaching a figure of 4.6 percent, that The New York TImes in their report, attributed to the plethora of white collar jobs, and their higher salaries.

Retail after some conservative holiday hiring was flat at 45,200.

“I think everyone is surprised at the strength,” said Sara Rutledge, an independent economics consultant. “It’s almost like a ‘pinch me’ scenario,” to the Times.

For President Biden who has faced criticism on inflation figures, despite a sizeable decrease, down to 3.1 percent in November, but now faces an increase in 3.4 percent, mostly attributable to increasing housing costs, this is not welcome news; but, the huge increase in employment is bound to be a boon to his reelection effort.

The low unemployment rate of 3.7 is notable, and “The fact that that’s been below 4 percent for two years running now is just a very clear and reliable signal that this is not just a tight labor market, but a reliably and persistently tight labor market,” said Jared Bernstein, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

“America’s economy is the strongest in the world. Today, we saw more proof,” said Biden in a statement.

Perhaps too strong? 

“There is simply no way that 350,000 job gains in a month is consistent with a further cooling of the labor market. This elevates the risk that nominal wage growth will not fall back to levels consistent with reaching the inflation target on a sustained basis, particularly as the labor force participation rate refuses to rise any further,” Brian Coulton, Fitch Ratings economist, wrote in a Friday commentary, as reported by The Hill.

Wages increased by 0.8 percent to $34.55, :doubling the monthly pace of headline inflation in December.” But, that does exceed the  stated goals of 3.5 percent growth to hit the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target.

In the area of consumer confidence, whose dollars drive the US economy, perception, as the old adage states, is one tenth of the law, and that confidence has grown according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index,as high and this softening is real, according to Consumers Director, Joanne Hsu who wrote, “Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, surging 13% to reach its highest level since July 2021, reflecting improvements in the outlook for both inflation and personal incomes.”

Still some Americans are complaining about high costs, much of which may be attributed to the lingering effects of supply shortages, but as stated before, most of the pinch is felt in housing, especially in urban coastal areas. And, in contrast, polls show that, “Just 28 percent of Americans rated the economy as excellent or good, according to a Pew Research consumer survey of 5,140 adults from January 16th to the 21st, released Sunday,” according to The Hill.

Tacking high employment with increasing wages may be a delight to politicians, consumers, and some economists, but the delicate balancing act for the Federal Reserve is not over yet.