Biden White House faces midtern worries

 

It’s less than a year away, but the midterm elections in November of 2022 are looming large for the Biden Administration, and there are dire predictions that he will have to take a substantial hit on his handling of the economy with the burgeoning levels of inflation, the lingering criticism of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the handling of Haitian immigrants, and that he won’t have Nancy Pelosi to have his back as Speaker of the House if the Dems are defeated.

Adding to the mix are concerns that he won’t run again, due to his age; despite a clean bill of health, as the oldest US first term president. If he decided against a second term, some are speculating that Vice President Harris has not been adequately prepared as a successor, and some, less than fans, are putting Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, as the candidate in 2024.

We’ll take a look at some of the more pressing concerns topping the list of concerns is gerrymandering by the Republican party to affect gains, even in areas where they are in the minority. And, while the act of congressional district restructuring has been favored by both parties, what is at stake is the slim Democratic majority in the House, foremost, as well as the Senate, where Harris is the tiebreaker.

Gerrymandering taking center stage

Restructuring voter behavior has taken center stage in the GOP and Texas Gov. Greg Abbot at the end of October seemed to lead the charge, shadowing the move to practically outlaw abortions in Texas, despite the fact that many voters do not want an outright ban.

Bret Jaspers of KERA in a spot on NPR’s Morning Edition, interviewed Bob Stein a professor at Rice University, who noted, among others present, that without competitive district races, the die is cast against an effort by opposing parties.

He said that, “A February poll from UT Austin and the Texas Tribune showed only 13% of Texans think abortions should never be permitted.” as an example of Republican control that affects legislation.

Economy matters

Moving to the economy, the Biden White House has struggled to stay on message, even after inheriting a mess from the Trump administration, and has fumbled with vaccination deadlines that were not met, and only lately reached their 70 percent mark where most Americans had  at least one vaccine jab.

With an economy that sputtered and started with fits and frustration, after the lockdown, the US has received the fastest recovery in ages, but second to China, not first, as the president recently noted.

There are still 4 million jobs less than when the Covid pandemic began, and many women, in the absence of child care have left the workforce to care for children, and, or aging parents, creating a yawning gap in the workforce that has lowered the rate of workforce participation, as shown in the October Jobs Report, from the Labor Department.

Reconciling to the public that those 10 million jobs for four consecutive months, contrasted with 7.5 million before the pandemic makes for hard sledding for the White House.

Record numbers of Americans are quitting jobs have added to the vacuum, where many have begun to reevaluate jobs that were physically demanding and required long hours, many of whom also were working shoulder to shoulder and feared catching the virus.

Bottlenecks, Build Backs and Inflation

Going from bad to worse is the bottleneck of supply shortages due to shuttered factories abroad (from fear of Covid) further hampered by lack of warehouses, staff, drivers and ports that have had long waits for ships to dock. And, while Biden has done all that he can do to keep ports open, and Transportation secretary Buttigieg has said that wants to make trucking more attractive, the long hours that they pull away from their families can only go so far.

Some recent news indicates that port delays are lessening and that the dearth of semiconductors has also increased, noted General Motors, “to keep all of its North American production plants running;” welcome news in early November.

As economists have pointed out, there is little the White House can do to make dramatic changes.

Next up is inflation that Biden’s critics are having a field day with, and blaming the near $2 trillion proposed social spending bill as contributing to it and while any government expenditures threaten inflation, the figures from the Congressional Budget Office and the White House differ.

The Congressional Budget Office has said that the plan, better known as the Build Back Better plan will increase the deficit by $367 billion over 10 years, but the White House says that it will pay for itself, and helped by greater IRS reinforcement of tax evaders, to the tune of $400 billion, but the CBO replied by saying that effort would only yield a net $127 billion benefit.

Janet Yellen, Treasury secretary states the opposite and that the bill will pay for itself.

According to The Hill, “The consumer price index, which tracks inflation for a range of staple goods and services, rose 0.9 percent last month and 6.2 percent in the 12 months leading into October, the highest annual inflation rate since October 1990.”

The fear is that the Republicans can drive this issue, and they quote a Democratic donor that said, “the White House needs to continue to get in front of the issue.”

For consumers there is anger and that any gains they receive in wages and sign on bonuses are eaten up by higher costs, topped by higher housing costs. 

This is especially true for low income families, and as Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said, “.. . to cover their commuting costs, grocery bills and rents are eating into the jump they have seen in wages.”

Recent polls have dipped to 42 percent for Biden and many observers are attributing this to anger about inflation.

Swonk added that “Inflation is sizzling and will likely get hotter before it cools.”

Feuding Democrats

Perhaps providing no greater measure of waning voter confidence was the family fight among Democrats ,with progressives decrying cuts to “cherished objectives,” according to the Hill’s coverage, with the social spending plan, but also airing the family dirty linen for all to see seemed more like a House divided, than party unity, and the grandstanding by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin gave truth to the sight that the fight was still there.

Now with House passage, the role of the Senate makes all wonder, but voter disenfranchisement is still present, and Democrats need to show “that voters can feel the benefits, or at least know  those benefits are coming,” before the midterm elections.

Virginia gubernatorial defeat and loss of morale

Equally ominous was the defeat of Terry McAuliffe for governorship of Virginia, and polls that had him leading, and GOP contender Glenn Youngkin trailing, badly. Of course polls can be wrong, dead wrong, (“Dewey defeats Truman” as a historical example) and even though the latter’s win was razor thin, a win is still a win.

The win was heartbreaking and soul shattering for Democrats, a party that had led in statewide races since 2009, and that Biden won in double digits, but it also holds a distinct irony since “history is on the side of the party not in power, because the Virginia election is one of the first chances for opponents of the sitting president to register their frustration.”.

Youngkin held Trump at arm's length distance and the Dems wanted to make the election about Trump, and the former’s strategy paid off, along with a handy wedge issue of the falsehood that Critical Race Theory is taught in elementary and high school’s, and an offhand remark by McAuliffe that the teachers should not be told what to teach was the final shaft.

The subject of suburban voters, especially women, as independent voters is now going to be a new epistle, and taking them as a monolithic block did not shatter the CRT myths, but did enough to scare voters, almost as much as the bathroom wars of a few years back, did the trick.

What didn't was the lack of focus by the Dems, not only in Virginia, but elsewhere, on state level elections and voter turnout, while many voters, including people of color, dismiss midterm elections as less valuable. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Vice-President Harris? A lost opportunity?

Adding to voter concern is the historic selection of a woman of color as his running mate and vice president, but whom many see, herself included, as often out of focus and his assignments, redolent of Biden’s own vice presidency to Barack Obama, but in a different time and a different place, they don’t work. 

An example is having Harris be a point person on immigration, an area ripe for failure and as the US has stumbled since the late 19th century, and beyond, trying to write policy amidst the vagaries of world wars, nativism and downright prejudice. In short, a great stumbling block for her to be attacked in a possible 2024 presidential race, especially for a prospective GOP challenger, such as former Vice President Mike Pence.

In the hothouse atmosphere of the White House where everyone is racing to singularize themselves, their boss and the press, Harris and her staff are at odds in an era far removed from California politics, and even from the more august senate, where those odds are now grist for 21st century social media.

As CNN pointed out in a lengthy piece, she often appears bland, and over-scripted; but under her own devices, such as the 30th anniversary of Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network at Carnegie Hall, she displayed verve, and some targeted shots at Trump, his Big Lie and at Ron De Santis and his gubernatorial counterpart, Abbot, on their new state voting laws, as an extension of the Lie; in short she was, even by the standards of jaded New York politicos, a star..

Please Mr. President, sir, can we have some more?

Up, up and away with US Jobs Report for October

 Friday’s report form the US Dept. of Labor gave an unexpected rise of 531,000 nonfarm jobs to the country, in October, exceeding expectations of 431,000 and with an upward revision of the August and September reports sending a balloon into the sky after last month’s dismal report; and, joined by a decrease in the general unemployment rate to 4.6 percent, there was joy on Main Street as well as Wall Street.

While there's still a loss of 3.8 million jobs lost since the Covid pandemic hit America, nearly all economists were unanimous in not simply their joy, but also the feeling that the nation was well on the way to recovery.

There was a lot of good news, and according to The New York Times, was that “especially vulnerable sections like hospitality and retail, where workers are dealing face to face with customers,” made gains, even while fears of getting sick are still prevalent.

“This was a strong employment report that shows the resilience of the labor market recovery from the pandemic,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco, to the Times

In fact, amidst the joy, the reality is that this concentration causes many to worry, not just employers, but economists and academics alike who fear that this is an area that does not allow for sustaining not just a national economy, but a strong middle class.

Most employers, nevertheless, are still grappling with finding enough qualified workers, and many of those employed in the gain area of restaurants and hospitality are reevaluating, (as noted last month), their net worth, and are discerning if it is worth it to work long hours on their feet, rushing about, with little chance of advancement, and facing the rising costs of housing and food costs (which have shot up by 3%), and most importantly child care.

One group, in particular, that has faced this challenge are Black and Brown women, who make up a large share of the jobs in leisure and hospitality, and the current increase of 164,000 would have been even higher, had there been higher wages, and affordable child, or even elder care.

For women, the results for October showed only a modest gain of 180,000, as this group on the whole, women of color exempted, also faces the challenge of child care, something that was supposed to have been solved in September, with the expected increase to classroom learning, versus the pandemic driven remote. Yet, the patchwork of school openings and mask mandate protests, dimmed expectations.

Overall the October labor force participation rate was relatively flat at 61.6 percent with only a slight increase for those aged 25 to 54, peak working years for many. A fact that has heads shaking, but many feel is directly attributable to the virus, and a reluctance, if able to work, fear based decisions, for some, as they work shoulder to shoulder.

Some employers are giving enhanced benefits, transportation allowances, and varied schedules and that has worked well for one hotel in St. Louis, Mo. cited the Times.

This mix and match approach is valued by economists, especially Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who told the Times, “I, as an economist, predict that will be better for job matches and a better economy in the long run.”

Largely, the problem is still increasing vaccinations among Americans,especially in Republican dominated areas of the South, where vaccination efforts have been politicized, and angry mobs have fought against mask mandates, and vaccination for school personnel, and first responders, and has now spread to Northern cities, such as New York, and Chicago.

Somewhat heartening is the greater rate of vaccination, where approximately 70 percent of the US has received at least one shot, and the subsequent weakening of the virulent Delta Virus strain has given some the impetus to travel and, return in greater numbers to restaurant dining, a fact reflected is the notable increase in food and drinking establishments to 119,000.

Equally concerning is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis  said that the US economy saw growth of only 2.0 percent in the 3rd quarter, noted The Washington Post, in late October: “The coronavirus tore through unvaccinated communities during much of the July-through-September period measured in Thursday’s gross domestic product report, eviscerating economists’ expectations from earlier in the year of continued rapid growth near the 6.3 and 6.7 percent seen in the first two quarters of 2021.”

Recently the Commerce Dept. reported that the economy grew by 0.5 percent, in the same quarter, with both attributing the slowdown to the virus.

What is now abundantly clear, to many, is that resolving the US economy will take time, and patience with increased efforts to gain greater vaccination, above all, but, also further legislative solutions to the country's most pressing problems that have been further delineated, and exposed, as a direct result of the pandemic.

All of this is set against a backdrop of supply chain problems: backorders of parts, whole merchandise, a shortage of workers, and ships sitting at ports, waiting to dock. 

The conundrum is that for many Americans the enforced lockdowns swelled bank accounts, not only with cash unspent, but a round of stimulus checks that many families, facing uncertainty, salted away, and are now spending it. And, they are joined by those at home still clicking away at the goodies on their computer screens. 

Optimism stil reigns and the decrease in the variant is one reason, and also that there was some forethought, with the coming holiday season as some “Businesses were able to build up their inventories — or at least slow the supply-chain bleeding — ahead of the holiday season, despite continued logistical snarls. People may have to be flexible on the exact gifts they pick out for friends and family. But they’ll probably have options.”

Supply Chain bottleneck threaten US consumers

 

If you are just now hearing of supply chain bottlenecks then perhaps you were on a longer flight to outer space than the one that Jeff Bezos provided to Star Trek actor William Shatner.

With the upcoming winter holidays, gift givers are being advised to order, and shop, early so as not to disappoint their recipients; but, while Christmas and Hanukkah are fast approaching, the culprit is not Scrooge, but the closures of factories abroad, especially those in Asia, and Europe, all due to the Covid pandemic that forced them.

While John and Jane Q. Public often identifies Chinese imports with the local dollar store, the reality is far more complex with everything from computer chips to sneakers being imported from destinations as far flung as Bombay to Hong Kong.

Another unknown is that many well known products are either partially or completely made of foreign parts, or designed here, and made in those distant locales.

Adding to the mix is that during the mandated lockdowns, and store closures, many Americans turned on their laptops, smartphones, and desktops to order a myriad of things from breadmakers to home improvement items, and all manner of gizmos and gadgets, with the firm expectation that they would be delivered within two days.

What that increased demand did was to create pressure to deliver, and the resulting bottleneck has created a myriad or problems, many that seem insurmountable, and have created shortages key areas, new cars especially, since they contain those microchips that tell us not only how to get to our destinations, but also to avoid hitting our children’s tricycles inconveniently parked behind our minivans.

Getting goods from point to point has been complicated by the lack of truckers, especially long haulers to get the goods from the port, or warehouse, to our homes. This dearth of truckers has been keenly felt by our British cousins whose trucks have almost ground to a halt.

Labor, therefore, is vital to push ahead, but many experienced workers have retired, or feel the desire to do less punishing hours, and workloads; now almost doubled in some key areas.

There are now 4.3 million less workers than there were in February of 2020; and, the workforce shrank in September from 63.3 to 61.6. Luring them back is part and parcel of any increase in working hours, say many economists.

Transportation problems here have grown so bad that according to The New York TImes, “Home Depot, Costco, and Walmart have taken to chartering their own ships to move products across the Pacific Ocean.”

While that might seem to be good enough, waiting times at ports can exceed 10 days,, in some cases, to have enough workers to move the goods. And, this has extended to the same patterns of delays and closures, across the US, in warehouses, and railroad yards.

The twinned problems for consumers are not merely shortages of goods, but higher prices threatening to drain those Covid inspired cash reserves, and last week, “Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in September and 5.4 percent in the 12 months leading into it,” reported The Hill, citing figures from the Labor Department.

Riding on the heels of the increase was the effect on tightly budgeted household incomes in key areas, such as food, energy and housing costs. That lump of coal for naughty children’s Christmas stockings, might be needed to heat the humble hearth.

While President Biden “met with leaders from corporations, labor unions and trade associations,” on Wednesday, according to The Hill, and announced 24 hour operations for FedEx, UPS and Walmart, seven days a week, including the Port of Los Angeles, the factor of time will be the primary factor of change.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the audit and tax firm, RSM, said in his interview, “At this point there’s not much that the federal government can do to what can accurately be described as a behavioral shock.”

September Jobs report numbers sink and stink

September was supposed to be the month that the US economy would see buoyant numbers that would propel it, ballon like, above the landscape of the Covid pandemic, with its doom and gloom, buoyed aloft by August numbers that said to many, that the nation was well on its way to recovery. Instead Friday’s report from the Labor Dept, showed a miserable 194,000 jobs.

This was in direct contradiction of predictors that said there would be 500,000 expected, and as the old song said, “What a Difference a Day Makes”, played out amongst the desks and offices of the nation’s lawmakers, and of course, the White House where President Biden attempted to minimize the loss and press the need for his Build Back Better program, now stick in the chutes of Congress.

There were strong winds which pulled that balloon down, and chiefly of them was the dwindling presence of women in the workforce, who with the push towards in person learning for their children, were expected to return to work in droves. 

That did not happen, and furthermore there was a significant decline in local and state school employment.

Another factor was child care itself, an expensive cost for many families, and especially low income families, saw a  trend across the country where there are “child  care deserts,” noted Julia Coronado, president and founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, in Friday’s interview with NPR: leaving many to rely on relatives and parents, a chain that can be weakened with a last minute phone call.

The crushing need for child care so that mothers can return to work is now hamstrung by a decrease in staff.

WAMU’s program 1A, broadcast by National Public Radio, reported that, “According to the Department of Labor, daycare and other childcare jobs are down 10 percent – that’s a decline of nearly 127,000 since the pandemic started..And in a nation where childcare and paid family leave aren’t guaranteed, it’s having devastating effects.”

For those that remain, its parent clients can expect to pay between $20,000 and $30,000 per year for one to two children, depending on geographic area.

Centers also have higher costs in having trained and educated staff, plus facility design and supplemental equipment.

Some census reports indicate that there was a change in women workers from a midsummer rate of 8 million to a drop to 5 million, once schools reopened for in person learning; but, the state and local depression of bus drivers, workers and even teachers, (dissatisfied with the job and, on average, a 5 year drop out rate) might cast doubt on those numbers.

Furthermore, employees who are leaving service jobs in droves, in search of less demanding work, an effort that was helped in some geographic areas, where the extra financial cushion of extended benefits gave them time to consider how they earned their daily bread; and, for many it was not in the kitchen, baking it.

While there was an increase in leisure and hospitality jobs, for September, to the tune of 74,000, and a slight increase in wages to attract seasoned and entry level workers, it was not as wide as in August, when increased vaccinations gave consumer confidence a boost, but a decrease in food and beverage hires made a dent in this month’s numbers.

Perhaps some workers returning to the office needed new clothes, and retail did show a 56,000 increase with a corresponding increase in accessories with a surge of 27,000. With neckties now in abeyance for most male workers, some have suggested that, for women, scarves and jewelry may be making headwinds, as they save for child care, instead of new outfits.

Then again employers are having a hard time luring office workers back to the expansive, and expensive office spaces, especially in Chicago, New York and Los Angeles, with many having become satisfied (especially those without child care) with remote work; and, even the lure of an office cocktail party is not making them bum rush to downtown.

The residual effects on all of those sandwich shops, sushi bars, and burrito stores, offer less and have less employees to serve what once was a scene out of Ben Hur, with legions running in and out at noon. And, as we have seen above they have faced employee exits; and, this has been clearly established in the fast food industry, as many fear a higher chance of Covid infection, working shoulder to shoulder.

As Bloomberg News reported a year ago, teenagers and the elderly, once part of the “key demographics . . . are staying away for health and safety reasons.”

“This is the most dramatic shift that’s happened in the modern history of food service,” said Aaron Allen, chief strategist at restaurant consultancy Aaron Allen & Associates,” last year; a trend that  has continued into 2021.

For traditional office spaces, some employers are redesigning the space in the hope that they can be made safer with wider, and more, open spaces; and, those seeking to climb the corporate ladder want face time, not screen time. But, that may have changed with many workers, especially women, wanting a hybrid that gives them some of both, and less child care costs.

The Labor Dept.noted that its household survey showed that “In September, 13.2 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, little changed from the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home  for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic.”

Of course, the hard reality is that there are still 5 million people out of work since the pandemic began almost two years ago and "It's just a bumpy recovery," says Nela Richardson, chief economist at the payroll processing firm ADP. 

"And it's a recovery that's still linked to the pandemic and the delta variant,” she recently told NPR.

Some good news, at least on the surface, was that the unemployment number dipped to 3.8% from 5.2% in August, but as we have pointed out the banner number, or the marquee number, does not say it all.

Labor Force Participation, or LFP, is still a cause for concern and NPR noted, that "that it does seem that a lot of people who are retirement age are opting out rather than staying in the workforce, which is a big, big change from pre-pandemic, when people worked well into their 60s and well after 65," said Tim Fiore, who conducts a monthly survey of factory managers for the Institute for Supply Management,” but, there are just as many that stay, says Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a spry 68.

"The lore is that people don't come out of retirement," Powell said last week during a congressional hearing. "Except I would say, all during the last few years of the very long expansion that ended with the pandemic, we were constantly surprised to the upside on participation, including older people staying in the workforce longer."

How much was the biggest question, and the report says, “The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.6 percent in September and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4 percent to 61.7 percent since June 2020.”

Biden touted the substantial decrease of Black unemployment for September, 7.9%, but on closer inspection it was due to Blacks leaving the workforce rather than gaining employment opportunities, and especially in areas dominated by Black service workers, including fast food, domestic work and healthcare workers, and notably those in long term care and nursing homes.

“The improvement in this month’s unemployment rate is misleading given the decline in the participation rate, in particular when you look at Black men and women,” said economist Valerie Wilson, a director at the Economic Policy Institute to CNBC.com.

“I don’t think that is signaling any acceleration or improvement in the pace of recovery at this point,” Wilson added, noting the difficulty of drawing conclusions about labor market trends from month-to-month changes.”.

Some analysts, especially at the TImes, have tried to spin September as not being so bad and citing that the unemployment rate has decreased faster than it did after the Great Recession of the late 2000’s.

“This represents a remarkably speedy recovery in the labor market — attaining sub-5 percent unemployment a mere 17 months after the end of the deepest recession in modern times. By contrast, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the jobless rate did not reach 4.8 percent until January 2016, six and a half years after the technical end of that recession”, they said.

One important distinction is the absence of a worldwide pandemic, in 2008, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people across the globe and reduced the American economy to near ashes. 

That is the key difference between the two poles.

Credence must be given to the Labor Dept, when they, without a figurative shrug, said, “Recent employment changes are challenging to interpret, as pandemic-related staffing fluctuations in public and private education have distorted the normal seasonal hiring and layoff patterns.”

 

Abuse of Haitian asylum seekers shocks world

 In a dramatic reversal of campaign promises towards asylum seekers, the Biden administration has faced another political bungle, just after alienating France, with harrowing images of Haitian immigrants being beaten back by members of the Border Patrol at the Texas and Mexican international bridge.

These events stand in stark contrast to the president’s stated objectives when it came to asylum seekers and immigrants on the campaign trail, and now in office, the tactics and rulings toward expulsions to Haiti seem more draconian than his predecessor, Donald Trump.

Comparisons to American slavery abound as members of the patrol on horseback used their reigns to ensnare the Haitians, and often using foul curses while doing so.

The consequences of sending  plane loads of them back to Haiti, a country that many had not known, or escaped from, after the 2010 hurricane, seeking employment in South America, (some working at the Summer Olympics in Rio De Janeiro) only to have Covid destroy their livelihoods is even more baffling, since Haiti lost its president in a recent assassination, the economy is in shambles, and many with nothing but the clothes on their backs, are now living on the streets of Port Au Prince.

Further damming the country, Haiti has suffered the aftermath of a recent 7.2 magnitude earthquake, leaving desperation and financial ruin all around.

For Black Americans the images are especially disturbing, and the outrage towards Biden has been relentless, with the NAACP issuing a statement to the White House saying, in part, “White (and white-presenting) men on horseback with lariats are seen chasing, yelling and cursing at vulnerable Black asylum seekers who have for weeks and months been fleeing toward what they thought was safety,”

Adding to the events was Chief Raul Ortiz of the Border Patrol claiming that “the mounted unit was deployed to assist with security and see if any migrants were in distress . . .” reported The New York Times.

Disingenuous to the side, others claimed that the use of horses in an open are not the best choice, “especially with a lot of people, is probably not the best place to be,” said Gil Kerlikowske, a former commissioner with Customs and Border Protection.

As he told the Times, “I think they’re really trying to send a strong deterrence message.”

That open area was also filled with women and children, some who were crossing back and forth, between the two countries, for food, and supplies; knee deep in murky water.

Skirting the issue was Alejandro Mayorkas, secretary for the Homeland Security Department, who defended deterrence matters, while saying on Wednesday that he would look into the matter.

While there is some sympathy for a vexing problem that has plagued many an American presidents these optics, say some, point to a crisis in the West Wing, on how to tackle the issue, with one side saying, accurately, that they were left a mess by the previous administration, and were not prepared to allow any asylum seekers in, and while others, Susan Rice, chiefly, saying deter.

Whoever is responsible for the directions, the subsequent humanitarian crisis is one that has many people recoiling, while the Republicans gleefully point fingers, and decry a “policy” that has caused the events, such as Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri.

In a continuance of Trump’s policy Biden has continued the use of Title 42 to stem the tide of immigration, but now it seeks to staunch the blood from a political fight that can loom large in the upcoming midterm elections.

Reaction from key lawmakers has been swift, with Vice President Kamala Harris calling the treatment “horrible” and that “human beings should never be treated that way.”

On the Hill, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called the scenes “heartbreaking,” and that she was following the events with a close eye.

On Thursday, the senior American envoy for Haiti policy, Daniel Foote quit in disgust, and in a sharp letter to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said, “"not be associated with the United States inhumane, counterproductive decision to deport thousands of Haitian refugees".

CNN reported that, “State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday that Foote "has both resigned and mischaracterized the circumstances of his resignation."

"He failed to take advantage of ample opportunity to raise concerns about migration during his tenure and chose to resign instead," Price said in a statement. He also said he was "not going to parse the contents of his resignation letter," but disputed a number of the points in that letter.”

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said that Foote never raised any objections and that all opinions were valued, and "I would note that Special Envoy Foote had ample opportunity to raise concerns about migration during his tenure. He never once did so. Now, that wasn't his purview," Psaki said during a White House briefing. "His purview was, of course, being the special envoy on the ground. His positions were and his views were put forward. They were valued. They were heard. Different policy decisions were made in some circumstances."

It’s easy to see that Foote has been left twisting in the wind, but his resignation added fuel to a fire that does not seem to be easily extinguished.

To stem the tide of the double debacle, the United States has allowed some of the asylum seekers to remain in the country, mostly women, and men, with children, and families. Processing has been done in Houston by a faith based group, with many joining family members already there.

Locations include New York, Boston and Miami; meanwhile the horse patrol has been suspended, but 4,000 asylum seekers still remain in Texas, with rough estimates that 2,000 were repatriated to Haiti and another 2,000 to stay in the US to await adjudication with the immigration courts, which could take years.

Mayorkas has now said that the area in Del Rio has been cleared by “heroic” efforts, and promised an investigation that will not be predetermined. He also gave some numbers that were at variance with earlier media reports.

According to The Washington Post, “Mayorkas said about 2,000 migrants have been expelled to Haiti on a total of 17 flights organized by DHS. Six more flights were scheduled Friday. About 8,000 migrants “decided to return to Mexico voluntarily,” he said.

The Post also gave some statements, on deep background, and that person said “Most of the 8,000 were part of those who arrived to the Del Rio camp, indicating more than half of the migrants who arrived there have returned to Mexico, according to a DHS official who was not authorized to speak to reporters.”

Meanwhile Biden said, “It was horrible,” and, “To see people treated like they did? Horses running them over and people being strapped? It's outrageous and I promise you, those people will pay.”

“There will be consequences,” he said. “It’s simply not who we are.”

This  incident has revealed some deep fissures in a White House that most felt was diligent and competent, veterans of previous administrations, who were compelled by nature to refute much of what the last four years had borne.

To many the thought process of some in the Biden White House is confusing, and, as an example, there is this: “Mayorkas said the administration had determined Haiti to be capable of taking back the returnees, just weeks after finding the country too unsafe as DHS extended protected status to eligible Haitians present in the United States before July 29, shielding them from deportation.”

This is a developing story with updates to be provided.

Angering France threatens to upend Biden foreign policy

 

One of the United States oldest allies, and an early supporter of independence from England was France, who feted Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson alike, and whose military alignment with the war was the Marquis De Lafayette, who as a military strategist was instrumental to the American colonies becoming the United States of America.

Adding to the help that the US has given them in two World Wars and supporting the French Resistance movement, to the fall of the Vichy government, to the victory of Charles De Gaulle, and there is the perfect mix for a strong alliance.

In a move that has baffled internationalists, and France itself, the Biden administration began a series of long range talks with both Britain and Australia to sideline an agreement of $70  billion dollars for the latter to buy French submarines, in the ongoing desire to protect sovereignty in the Indo China seas. Was agreed upon in 2016.

The timing could not have been more precipitous as President Emmanuel Macron had just “announced that French special forces had killed a leading ISIS figure who was behind the 2017 killing of four Americans in West Africa,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

France is angry, rightfully so, and has recalled its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra\, an unusual move and one that has sent President Biden a strong and clear message that the agreement, named AUKUS, was a done deal.

They say that it was not told, or even consulted, suggesting a unilateral move that Biden not only campaigned against, in his run for the presidency, but also has some sources, stating, in effect,  “we knew they would be angry if we told them.”

National Security Council spokesperson, Emily Horne, in a statement said, “We understand their position and will continue to be engaged in the coming days to resolve our differences, as we have done at other points over the course of our long alliance. France is our oldest ally and one of our strongest partners, and we share a long history of shared democratic values and a commitment to working together to address global challenges.”

In an earlier report, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said that “senior administration officials had been in touch with their French counterparts,” reported The Hill, but the term, in and of itself, is open to interpretation.

Also of note was the general absence in the plans was Secretary of State, Tony Blinken who lived in France as a student and who subsequently became a notable Francophone.

Coming on the heel of the “messy” Afghanistan withdrawal, and the lack of consultation to Europe, many in the European Union are seeing them dismissed from yet another American administration, still cringing after Donald Rumsfeld's dismissal of them: “Oh, that’s old Europe,” during the Iraq War.

For France, and many European leaders, the change represents betrayal at the highest levels and is indeed a “stab in the back” says French Foreign Minister Jean Yves Le Drian, and others to say that Biden’s move was redolent of the Trump era; and, while that may be unfair, or even hyperbolic, the move is a strategically wrong.

The reason given for the change was the better American nuclear powered submarines that could stay in the water longer, and without detection, amid other technical concerns; yet, many have wondered why these were not addressed with the French rather than this secretive change.

Some have said, such as former Australian ambassador, Kevin Rudd, in an interview with National Public Radio, this was calculated to boost the current Prime Minister in the polls, in an upcoming election; a move, perhaps unwise, as it is top heavy for Scott Morrison, if true.

For Britain, who has always prided itself on having “a special relationship” with America, (but one that is almost never spoken of in Washington, according to political author Anne Applebaum) the stakes are raised even higher, as they seek a much higher profile than they were given by Trump.

That further infuriates France who think of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as a clown, much in the mold of Trump, making some wonder if this is a position being used by them.

Certainly it’s a recognition that China does represent a threat to America and Europe, but France has 2 million citizens in the area, and 70,000 troops, a not insignificant presence that warrants consultation.

President Obama has noted previously, and accurately, that the US has to pivot towards China, but does that exclude old allies, like France, say many diplomats.

In August Rudd commented, and almost presaged the Biden foreign policy moves, when he noted in an interview for an Australian publication, that “The Australian public and body politic needs to understand we are in the midst of a profound paradigm shift in global and regional geopolitics. It’s about the rise and rise of China and an America that continues to question itself about its future strategic role in the region and the world.”

Biden addressed the United Nations General assembly on Tuesday, and the speech according to White House officials, said, “The speech will center on the proposition that we are closing the chapter on 20 years of war and opening a chapter of intensive diplomacy by rallying allies and partners and institutions to deal with the major challenges of our time,” the official told reporters Monday on a call previewing the speech, The Hill also noted.

While supporters and critics alike have commended him on the call for coming together on climate change, others are questioning the French incident as belying the statements on maintaining  and harnessing relationships with allies.

The incident has also challenged the generally unflappable Jen Psaki, White House press secretary to finesse the situation, and on Monday, she remarked, “You always have to work on your relationships and that includes with global leaders, but [Biden] believes that our relationships are sustaining over the course of many decades, that every step he’s taken from the moment he took office was with intention of rebuilding alliances and rebuilding those partnerships that were frayed over the last four years,” 

US Jobs in August take a nosedive

 

After a huge surge in nonfarm jobs for July economists, lawmakers and government officials were looking forward to even higher numbers for August, yet on Friday the US Labor Dept. released news that dashed all hopes with the dismal figure of 235,000 jobs, that most have attributed to the Delta Variant and its huge push into the economic behavior of Americans, just as they were going back to a relative version of normal, and especially going to restaurants, bars and other entertainment venues.

Leading the pack was Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton who told The New York Times, “Delta is a game changer, '' and “it’s not that people are laying off workers in reaction to Delta but people are pulling back on travel and tourism and going out to eat and that has consequences.”

While there is still some activity in these areas, many people are reconsidering plans, and especially those that have children under 12 in their homes, for fear of exposure; and, with the last blush of summer fading, and a return to in person learning, pulling back, as Swonk says, is a sea change in consumer behavior, the driver of the US economy.

While most acknowledge that there is still some resilience in the American economy, no one is taking the future for granted, especially with large parts of the country unvaccinated.

“Still, this marked an eighth consecutive month of net job growth, and brought total employment closer to pre-pandemic levels,” reported Yahoo Finance, and as President Biden later noted.

Reflected in the numbers are high contact employees, especially in low wage industries that require face to face interactions, such as restaurants and bars. This creates a chilling effect on these businesses, as many have attempted to climb from the hole that the Alpha variant created. And, the Times reported that the reservation system Open Table, after a resurgence in the summer, “are now 10 percent below where they were before the pandemic.”

Shopping, a sport for many, took a decline with retail by 29,000, and the number of people working at home also took an increase, but with the report being created in mid month, online shopping figures are not available.

Hits taken by Hurricanes Henri and Ida, are also not reflected.

The good news is that most economists believe that despite all, “in the current quarter from the annualized rate of 6.5 percent in the spring, the economy is expected to remain in expansion mode for the rest of the year.”

The Delta variant is the sword of Damocles hovering over US economics and with the dearth of vaccinations, especially in the South, fragility is the watchword as Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, said in his interview, “We get another reminder of how significant the pandemic is in determining progress in our economy.”

Predictably, the Biden administration already burdened by the pullout from Afghanistan and the hurricanes, also took a punch in the gut over the news, as they try to pass legislation to increase jobs and expand infrastructure to include social capital, both in abeyance with this report.

The White House released a transcript of the president’s reaction to the news and it was clear that he was trying to put the best face on it, when he noted, “But despite the impact of the Delta variant — and I’ll talk a little more about that in a minute — what we’re seeing is an economic recovery that is durable and strong.”

 

Taking a long view, he noted, “The Biden plan is working.  We’re getting results.  America is on the move again.  And today’s revision of previous month job gains, with the revision of the July numbers — this report means that we have been adding an average of 750,000 jobs per month, on average, during the past three months.

  

While I know some wanted to see a larger number today, and so did I, what we’ve seen this year is a continued growth, month after month, in job creation.  It’s not just that I’ve added more jobs than any first-year President — in the first year of any President — it’s that we’ve added jobs in every single one of my first seven job reports.  And wages are going up.”

In a year over year analysis, wages did increase to 4.3 percent. 

Labor also gives a dual note when they say:

 “Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 17 cents to $30.73 in August, . . . and “average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 14 cents to $25.99.”

Taking wages on the whole proves problematic, since ”The data for recent months suggest that the rising demand for labor associated with the recovery from the pandemic may have put upward pressure on wages. However, because average hourly earnings vary widely across industries, the large employment fluctuations since February 2020 complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings.”

One significance of the report is that Labor Force Participation stayed the same at 61.7 percent in August, a bellwether, say some of next month when schools across the country will be in person, and parents and caregivers are expected to return to offices, if not the service industry.

Another boon is that the long term unemployment population, those that have been jobless for 27 weeks or longer dropped from 3.4 million to about 3.2 million, noted The Hill.

While unemployment for whites fell from 4.8 percent to 4.5 percent, even while LFP stayed the same, Black workers faced an increase in unemployment from 8.2 percent to 8.8, with 0.8 in their participation, which some attribute to an earlier bump in service jobs, but might drop in the September report.

Hispanics faced a drop from 6.6 to 6.4, but Asians dropped from 5.3 percent to 4.6 percent, which reports say might be attributable to a decline in LFP, by 0.4 points.

Gains were seen in professional and business services at 74,000, but this is a catchall category that can mean anything from office temps to copier services, and everything in between.

Transportation and warehousing also made gains, thanks to all of that online ordering at 53,000, manufacturing, despite supply chain bottlenecks, came in at 73,000, and those attendant couriers, messengers and warehouse personnel came in at a strong 20,000.

Finally,  it should be noted that while 5.3 million jobs were recovered since the onset of the pandemic, and using February 2020, as a baseline; but, in contrast there were 5.3 million fewer jobs in August, than in February of 2020.