President Trump and the National Guard

When President Trump ordered the National Guard to safeguard American’s capital, Washington DC, in mid August from “violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals” there was a huge outcry of disbelief, and even horror, from residents and political commentators alike, at what seemed to be an unnecessary action, in a city that has seen a 33 percent drop in homicides, and seemed to be another example of presidential overreach, and while many did Google searches on crime statistics and protested the guard being used this way, and while vast legions of talking heads appeared on national television and social media decrying the president's actions, much seemed, especially, in hindsight to have missed the point of Trump’s actions.

This seems not to be about crime, at all, but reflects long held statements by the president on Democratic cities, and the general belief that their leadership, in fact, all Democrats were soft on crime; a belief that has roots from Richard Nixon who ran on a law and order platform and reached the heights of the George Floyd protests, that were tagged by violent hooligans who seized the opportunity for theft and mayhem; and, all of which played into the hands of Republicans who funneled the perception of Democratic leadership ignoring violent crime while they upheld trans rights and affirmative action for Blacks in employment and university admissions.

This is not to say that crime does not exist in many large American cities, it does, and tackling a complicated issue requires more than political posturing, and as The New York Times noted in a report, locking up criminals, addressing the root causes of crime has experts they consulted pointing “to an unclaimed middle ground for savvy politicians who want to acknowledge the problem, put aside the clash between facts and feelings and focus on what works.”

While Washington, DC has had a severe crime reduction for the most violent of crimes, an incident with a former DOGE staffer who was violently assaulted in an attempted car jacking, the time for the administration to act was now, and this they did, and in well publicized statements,Trump set up a test pilot to continue the actions of the guards to Democratically led cities especially, the bluest of the blues, Chicago, and set up a perfect storm to create the chaos that he began in his first term of office.

Crime and crime stats are not the point, but the intentions to harness the base of his support to see him as a strongman against lefty liberals who can’t control their cities is sure to shore up support in the upcoming midterms, where despite overall strength, the president is seeing his support dwindle; especially, among worried seniors and low income people, who for the most part wholeheartedly voted to put him back in office, and who might defect over potential losses for health coverage from The Big Beautiful Bill, and who in ruby red town halls saw Republican lawmakers booed, hissed, and shouted down by constituents, now discouraged by national leadership.

 

Whether this will bring them back from the brink of possible defection  is in question, but Trump who wants to keep the Dems from taking back the House  in the upcoming mid term elections needs these potential defectors whose lives for the most part, lie outside of large urban areas; and, if you add the brouhaha over the Epstein files, with subsequent protests from his base who feel deserted by his seeming abandonment of the Deep State, and the disastrous press meeting by Attorney General Pam Bondi, that she had not cleared with the White House, and her backtracking on the existence of a client list kept By Epstein that she previously said was on her desk later changing her statement to say she had lots of files on her desk, it’s obvious that Trump is worried about taking a drumming in the midterms.

It may be that some plans were being made for the National Guard to be called in to safeguard the public in Washington, the earlier play in June in Los Angeles was a starting point for a boost to the base, and to serve as a distraction from the Epstein furor, has made that effort a template for future actions.

Taking things further, on Monday, Secretary of Defense Pete Hesgeth ordered the use of side weapons for the guard in Washington, DC, but while this is a significant development, some residents, and media, have reported that they are also picking up trash, and painting over graffiti in the capital city, and earlier reports did say they the guard would be used as part of a beautification effort which has raised suspicion among cynics in Washington, of which are not in short supply in the city.

Some crime statisticians have attributed beautification efforts as a crime deterrent in cities like Baltimore, according to The New York Times.

As CNN reported, “President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday tasking his secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, with establishing “specialized units” in the National Guard that will be “specifically trained and equipped to deal with public order issues” — the clearest sign yet he intends to expand the US military’s role in domestic law enforcement activities across the country.”

Interestingly enough, guard units have been pulled from red states to patrol DC who voted overwhelmingly for Trump, but ironically have much higher crime rates in their respective states of West Virginia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Ohio, Louisiana and Tennessee.

“A US official told CNN on Monday that some troops will carry M4 rifles, as that is their primary weapon, whereas military police, for example, primarily use a M17 handgun. A Joint Task Force spokesperson said the troops are authorized to use their firearms for “personal protection” only, meaning self defense— and “not for policing.”

While this bolsters the president’s efforts, it also creates some confusion, of what they can do or not to do. It’s important to know that since the District of Columbia is not a state with only semi autonomous rule, Congress, and the president, can control much of the governance of the capital city.

“The DC National Guard is unique in that the president has the authority to activate them under Title 32, though that authority is typically delegated to the secretary of the Army. Otherwise, National Guard troops elsewhere in the country are under the control of their governors while on Title 32,” of the Posse Comitatus Act. 

Notably, Trump however did go over the head of California governor, Gavin Newsom to Los Angeles to protect federal buildings amidst protests against ICE deportations of undocumented persons, something that may happen in Chicago, as early as next week says Tom Homan, the designated Border Czar, to round up undocumented immigrants, creating a perfect storm for residents.

In a Monday press conference, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, along with Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, said that the threat was a publicity stunt to distract Americans from Trump’s failed policies.

Ahead of the governor’s statements was this: “DC sets a bad example,” said “Rachel Van Landingham, a former Air Force judge advocate and current law professor at Southwestern Law School, told CNN on Monday,” adding, “It sets an example of normalizing this when nothing is normal about it, and DC is not representative of other states. … It would just be a whole new world for them to try a Washington, DC-type maneuver in Chicago or anywhere else that’s not Washington, DC, because Washington, DC, is so legally different than any other area.”

A question of stagecraft versus statecraft is on the minds of some observers, but a distinction may be hard to discern, say others. But, Pritzker did note in his opening remarks, “What President Trump is doing is unprecedented and unwarranted. It is illegal. It is unconstitutional. It is un-American.”

“No one from the White House or the executive branch has reached out to me or to the mayor. No one has reached out to our staffs. No effort has been made to coordinate or to ask for our assistance in identifying any actions that might be helpful to us. Local law enforcement has not been contacted. We have made no requests for federal intervention. None.”

Warming to the occasion, Pritzker added, “If this was really about fighting crime and making the streets safe, what possible justification could the White House have for planning such an exceptional action without any conversations or consultations with the governor, the mayor, or the police?

Let me answer that question: This is not about fighting crime. This is about Donald Trump searching for any justification to deploy the military in a blue city, in a blue state, to try and intimidate his political rivals.”

"This is about the president of the United States and his complicit lackey, Stephen Miller, searching for ways to lay the groundwork to circumvent our democracy, militarize our cities and end elections.”

July Jobs Report: A downward slide

With the release of the July Jobs Report from the US Labor Dept. on Friday there was an unexpected dip in the number of non-farm jobs for the country, a departure from what economists expected, and one that some have said was bound to happen with the economic uncertainty brought by the on again, off again tariffs from President Trump. In response, employers have been reluctant to hire new workers, but Trump has said, "The good news is that tariffs are bringing billions of dollars into the USA.”

In total, there were 73,000 jobs created, but one of the more revealing, and controversial, aspects of the report was the downward revisions for May, and June, a natural occurrence due to the collection period by Labor, specifically the Bureau of Labor and Statistics; but, these revisions were more severe than prior reports have shown: for June, 14,000, and for May 19,000, giving an overall picture of a declining, but not dismal, picture of the American jobs market.

“It’s hard to pull the trigger on hiring when you’re uncertain about where tariffs are going to land,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, to The New York Times.

Trump, who pegged much of his election campaign on increasing jobs for the US, was furious, and fired the BLS commissioner, saying without evidence that Dr. Erika McEntarfar, a Biden appointee, had rigged the numbers to make him look bad, and that she would be replaced for someone that would provide more accurate numbers.

Moving away from that controversial firing, this report was not entirely unexpected, some say, considering the uncertainty that has roiled both the domestic and the global financial communities, and the effect of tariffs on the American consumer, the main drivers of the economy. And, if there is a pull back on spending, then the consequences will be significant, but currently, with the average wage increasing by 0.3 percent, and reaching a total for the year of 3.9 percent, and $36.44 for July, it exceeds the rate of inflation of 2.8 percent, so consumer spending has not taken a nosedive.

The banner rate of unemployment was 4.2, a tad above the previous rate of 4.1, and the labor force participation rate was little changed from June, at 62.2 percent; and, while this is a closely watched figure by economists and legislators, future monitoring will be increased to make sure that there is no need of a fix, by either the Federal Reserve, or market enhancement tools.

What has become problematic is that the Trump administration has not made clear what the end goals are for tariffs, and for global markets, using his April calculations (which many economists question) could interrupt trade relations with some of America's closest allies, such as Canada, Mexico; not to mention the European Union, whose recent acquiescence has increased their tariffs from a previous low of 2.5 to 15 percent, but leaving a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum, components that are featured in many consumer goods for the US, not only cars, but appliances such as washing machines and refrigerators, to name but a few.

For those countries that have not negotiated with Trump they face even higher tariffs, up to 35 percent on August 7.

Switzerland, whose exports reach the US in luxury watches, chocolates, and components, such as the above, and who claimed a close trading relationship with them, was hit with a baffling 39 percent, slowing trade, and creating a probable black hole for later trade agreements; but, hitting the market for luxury goods among wealthy Americans.

Consistent with earlier reports the heavy hitters are: health care at 55,400 jobs, retail at 15,700, and leisure and hospitality at 5,000; but the demise of manufacturing and construction have continued, as both industries struggle with tariffs and supply chain issues, coupled with the high cost of building housing, in an underperforming area, 11,000 and 12,000 respectively.

Well known, but now firmly established is the loss of 12,000 federal jobs resulting from the earlier firings, orchestrated by presidential advisor Elon Musk, and the Department of Government Efficiency, which had been previously thought to have swelled the ranks of local and state governments, but with the revision are far less.

Reaction from economists has been swift, and Olivia Allen, senior economist at Parthenon, said, “After this report, it doesn’t look like a particularly healthy job market,”

Overall, job growth has not kept up with population growth in the US, and 80,000 to 100,000 are needed, noted Laura Williams, director of economic research for North America, at the jobs site Indeed.com, reported CNBC.  In fact, the country has only created 106,000 jobs since May, “a three month total barely enough to sustain the labor market.”

Cost of goods,specially groceries, were a deep concern for consumers when inflation was near 9 percent, and while it has come significantly down, there are still concerns, especially when Trump was running for his second term, and said, in effect, everything was going to be cheaper, a promise that he found difficult to keep, and admitted after 30 days in office, that it was harder than he thought.

Egg prices, that bugaboo in the run up to election day, have come down by 23.8 percent because of successful attempts to tame bird flu, and separate healthy chickens from sick ones; gasoline is up partially due to summer demand, but also varies according to the price of crude oil, and formularies used both in production and distribution, with an average per gallon price of $3.49, relatively tame by those standards.

Grocery prices do vary, by region, and retailer, but core inflation which strips out volatile gas and energy products is up from January to June by 0.8 percent; and, while some areas might not be affected, depending upon income, lower income families may be the most challenged, especially with the shortage of affordable housing, and congressional cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and taking into account that grocery prices are up 0.6 percent, according to the CPI report from BLS.

The Budget Lab at Yale University has predicted that with the Trump tariffs groceries will increase by 3.7 percent in a year, or two; and, 3.2 percent over the next 5 to 10 years.

The moves of the Federal Reserve in their recent meeting, has kept the interest rate of 5.33 percent, citing, once again, economic uncertainty of the Trump tariffs, much to the ire of the president as he has continued to excoriate Chair Jerome Powell, calling him on Truth Social, “Too Little, Too Late Jerome” and has wavered between name calling, or threatening to fire him; and, recently, attacking him for cost overruns on the Reserve building, conflating a five year old project with a current renovation; all designed in an effort to discredit him, since the Supreme Court has said that he cannot be fired.

Powell stated last Wednesday, “If you move too soon, you wind up maybe not getting inflation all the way fixed and you have to come back. That’s inefficient. If you move too late, you might do unnecessary damage to the labor market.”

There seems to be no predictable end in sight for the American economy, and employment stability; and, together with tight global markets makes for a very worrisome economic future, plus with politicization on the forefront, the risks for consumers are enormous.

Mamdani surge might energize Democrats

When Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker announced that he was going to run for a third term as Illinois governor, local tongues began to wag, and ponder, was he giving up presidential ambitions, or was he using this as a time to solidify his national reputation, after a series of appearances, and blunt criticism of Donald Trump, who in turn, has openly criticized him, and calling him names.

Pulling back from the optics, and the rhetoric, with the Democrats sidelined by the juggernaut of the second Trump administration, it’s going to be tough sledding for them as they attempt to make a comeback, and while it’s been done before after being in the weeds, notably with the election of Bill Clinton; but, they have faced an onslaught of bad publicity, which was ratcheted up when Joe Biden stepped aside, and Vice President Kamala Harris stepped up from the bench, to keep the presidency in Democratic hands.

As we once noted about the failed campaign of Hillary Clinton, the book has not been written on that loss, but we did offer a post mortem, of sorts, shortly after her defeat, it’s now safe to say that Trump won in no small measure by appealing to many of the fears and cultural concerns about Brown and Black people, immigrants, and especially trans people.

In short, the Democrats have a bad reputation, with the reality of Trump’s command of the culture wars in America; and, while some conservative positions  had gone underground after the Reagan years, only to reemerge decades later, Trump brought them forward in a defense of traditional values, and pilloried attempts, starting with the bathroom wars, by others to support these populations.

The great American culture figure, Will Rogers, once famously said: “I belong to no organized party; I am a Democrat.” Aphorisms aside, that may be the central question. What do they stand for? Who can they appeal to?

Framing those questions has become the $64,000 question, and Pritzker raising his national profile, stating pride in defending diversity, affording equality in education, and gender diversity might not win him points with the right, or even the extreme left, but, entering the fray in the city that defines much of urban America, comes Zohran Mamdani who beat out disgraced former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, in the recent city primary, And, in a city like New York, the shock was akin to the election of  American Bishop Robert Prevost to the papacy of the Roman Catholic Church. 

All roads might have once led to Rome but can the tables be turned to allow a 33 year old Ugandan born Indian with an unwieldy name to take on the most embattled and diverse of American cities, Chicago excepting? And, also one that has previously eaten and spit out lesser mortals as they attempt governance. 

Two parts of his plank that have warmed the hearts of New Yorkers are the “bread and butter” issues of historically high rents, groceries, and fears of subway crimes, to mention just a few. The response has been overwhelming, and it’s also notable for the absence of hot button cultural issues, perhaps echoing Abraham Lincoln’s famous words of a house divided cannot stand.

One significant factor is Mamdani’s attraction for younger voters, and as NY Mag reported a Marist poll gave Mamdani a 34 point lead, “among voters under 45”. Coupled with a younger turnout, “voters 25 to 34 have been the largest share of early voters among any age cohort, making up one quarter of the early vote with voters under 45 comprising almost half the early vote.”

If retail politics rule the day, then Mamdani walking from one end of Manhattan to the other, video crew in hand, before the Friday primary election, while his much older opponent, Cuomo, was reticent to reveal his schedule, speaks volumes to a new day dawning for a younger, physically abled candidate which has not been seen in the last three presidential elections cycles; and, while this is not a presidential election, it does give a sharper edge to how a Democratic candidate might perform on the national stage.

What might be held against him is the label of Democratic Socialist which might need clarification for some voters, especially if elected and a crop of similarly identified voters are also running for office; but, then again, we've seen this before nationally, with the run of Bernie Sanders, and his socialist tag that joined a debate about who was more progressive, a battle never won.

Then in 2019, there was a presage of sorts with mayoral elections in Chicago, that prompted The Economist to note the upswing in aldermanic races with a surge of Socialist Democrats to state, “Looking past the label, however American socialists are more progressive Democrats rather than Castros in waiting, and their rise poses more of a challenge to the Democratic Party than to capitalism.”

We may see that again, and already with the anti immigration efforts from Trump, he has already, along with others, been talking about Mamdani’s status as a naturalized citizen, and either deporting him, or denaturalizing him, a lengthy process that could rattle his primacy.

Up for grabs, in any local, or national election is the Black vote, something that has factored into the success of any Democratic president since the 1960s, and in the last presidential election played a role in Trump’s victory where more Black men, younger, voted for him giving him a decisive edge.

If we take a look at Mamdani and his voters we see that, early as it is, “young Black voters appear to have gone decisively for him in the NYC primary. According to one primary exit poll (with a small sample size), about 70 percent of Black voters under 50 voted for Mamdani citywide,” according to The Intercept.

For a national candidate, the focus on bread and butter issues can take a sharp turn towards success. but despite accusations of taking the Black vote for granted, the future for Democrats may have to take a turn from traditional transactional strategies to recognizing that Black communities are not monolithic.

It’s apparent that for voters youth matters, and while younger Black voters are turning out for Mamdani, there is also a surge within Democratic circles for Patrick Roath, a young 38 year old candidate vying to win a House seat from incumbent Stephen Lynch, 70, who some voters feel is not only youthful enough, but not as progressive as they need, or desire, as a force against Trump.

Roath, much like Mamdani, is pushing hard for those same “bread and butter” issues that he feels are most important for voters in Massachusetts, such as affordable housing access to jobs. but also to return and redefine the issues for Democrats, admittedly no small feat, in and of itself. 

While some may see this as a way to regain the ground lost in 2024, a return to party roots, Rogers infamous quote aside, may have some traction, especially in the midterms next year, and especially as the president is coming under close scrutiny for his alleged involvement with pedophile Jeffrey Epstein, a story that seems to have legs, to use the old newspaperman jargon.

That  aside, considering Roath as an example, there may be some good old fashioned youthful New Frontier “vigah” for his campaign, than establishment stalwarts such as Pritzker.

Part and parcel of Roath’s energy comes also from his moral outrage of the Trump detentions, and deportations, of undocumented immigrants, as the administration attempts to meet a goal of 3,000 deportations each day.

When we take a look at the high cost of housing, especially on the  East Coast as well as across the nation, voters may wonder why this is not a priority of the president. Then add healthcare, or more specifically, the potential loss of 11 million Medicaid recipients from “The Big Beautiful Bill” passed by Congress, then the die may be cast for a path forward.

Still there is some pushback against youth as a factor, and in an interview with WBUR, Bill Curry, a former member of the Clinton administration and Democratic veteran, seemed wary of a “bright and shiny” new candidate, and wants to stress past Democratic legislation, and achievements.

He said that there needs to be more than youth, but instead a return “specific asks” citing past successes such as Civil Rights, for Black Americans, backlash to the Watergate scandal, to jump start the push back against Trump.

June Jobs Reprt: Solid as a rock say some, others?

Holding strong the US Jobs report, released on Thursday, just before Independence Day by the Labor Dept. once again showed strength and resilience despite the “on again, off again” threat of tariffs, and, indeed, exceeded the expectations of most economists, with 147,000 non farm jobs when only 117,00 were expected.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, but  labor force participation was little changed at 62.3.

“You’re not just seeing any feed through for the tariffs as trade related stress,” said Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist to Yahoo Finance, and added, “We’ve got an absolutely solid payroll number,” but also gave this cautionary note, “This feeds right into the forecast of a slowing but solid economy.”

There is still economic uncertainty promulgated by President Donald Trump with his tariffs, first announced in the White House Rose Garden, on the so-called Liberation Day, albeit with the fuzzy math that international economists have criticized; and, all of which has not only caused consternation abroad, but for American consumers, the main drivers of the US economy, as they navigate prices from wedding gowns, (most of which are made in China), as well as steel, (ironically used to build Trump properties) and tariffs on aluminum that threaten a supermarket staple: canned goods.

All things considered equal, US employers have held back on hiring, but not enough for a deleterious effect, and with a steady hand on the tiller, the captains of industry are navigating threatening waters.

That aside, wages were up for June by 0.2%, an increase of 37 percent, which, for middle to high income earners allows them to deal with inflation, currently at 2.7 percent.

Overall what we are seeing is a smaller, but still robust, labor market that, much to the disappointment of Trump, will not allow for a rate cut, but as Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JP Morgan Chase Asset Management told The New York Times, “There is no urgency, they can keep pushing it into the future.”

Stephen Miran, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, was ecstatic in the news as well as damning administration critics, when he stated, “Once again proving that the haters and doom sayers don’t know what they’re talking about.”

As reported in the past few months, the heavy hitters are local and state governments with 75,000 jobs, whose numbers may be possibly swollen from those approximate 69,000 federal workers sacked by Elon Musk and his DOGE team; leisure and hospitality at 20,000, education and health at 51,000 and construction increasing to 154,000.

Feeding the national trend with online shopping, transportation and warehouse jobs are holdings steady at 75,000,

The losers? Manufacturing which lost 7,000 workers, and who in April lost 1,000 jobs, and whose losses are caused by a myriad of factors: disturbances in the global supply chains, trade disputes, and tariffs, but also by American manufacturers who invest far less in process innovation, as do other countries, for example, Japan, who has invested, on the main, 55 percent more than Americans have, at last count 23 percent.

Taking a look at overall economic growth there are estimations of only 0.1 percent and 13 percent growth on a year to year basis, while other corporate think tanks, accounting firms, and private investment firms predict slower growth over the next two years, beginning this year between 1.5 percent and 2 percent; with much of that attributable to lowered consumer spending, business investment, and government policy, up to and including tariff policies.

The hits to the GDP (gross domestic product) are predicted to drift downwards by the fourth quarter of this year, with some predicting a recession, and by 2026 a fall to 1.7 percent.

Latest news on tariffs from the Trump administration is that ahead of the July 9 deadline letters will be sent to at least 100 countries that if they do not meet that deadline for trade negotiations, tariffs will revert back to the April 2 rates, between 10 and 50 percent, according to Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, in an appearance Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

While it’s been long known that Trump is not a globalist, the results would further sever not only relations with foreign markets, and increase prices for their goods in the US.

Of course, the biggest news from the administration is that Congress approved is “Big Beautiful Bill,” his term, a signature piece of legislation that encompasses gnarly everything the president wants to achieve as part of his economic and cultural legacy, including making permanent the 2017 tax cuts, that mostly favor the very rich, with only modest income increases for the lower and middle classes.

The greatest concern among administration critics, including Democrats, is that to cement the expiring his 2017 tax cuts, the revenue needed to create them will be taken from a reduction in Medicaid to approximately 11 million people, and whose work requirements for certain recipients, seniors excepted, or volunteer work, and whose monthly reporting may prove onerous, especially to those tech challenged, or without access to the internet to file those reports may find themselves dropped and, the result will see a greater reduction in program coverage.

This coupled with cuts from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) increases revenue enhancement, but will affect individuals, and families, especially those living in states with Medicaid expansion and in combination with the Affordable Care Act, has supported the health care needs of adults, and children, especially those with special needs, both developmental and genetic.

The result is that for those in these groups, their monthly budgets, already stretched thin, will be so even further as they attempt to fill the holes, and pay rent, or mortgages; despite the president stating that a family of four will gain at least $13,000 per year from the passage of this bill.

While economists disagree with him, and point to an assumption of an increase in the GDP, this bill can also affect employment in rural hospitals, since many may close, creating job loss; plus a crisis of care additional costs of care that might not be met by Medicaid, even if some remain open. Joining that concern is that one out of every four people in rural America are on Medicaid.

The biggest result of the bill, originally HR 1 from the US House of Representatives, adds a huge deficit to the US economy, as Factcheck.org noted in early May:

“The bill is certainly not the largest deficit reduction in nearly 30 years – it’s not deficit reduction at all,” Marc Goldwein, senior vice president of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told us in response to Leavitt’s claim. The increase to the deficit over 10 years will be $3.1 trillion with interest, according to CRFB’s breakdown.”

In response to the stated benefits from The White House, from Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, they added, “The Tax Foundation, for instance, concluded, based on the version of the bill passed by the Senate Finance Committee, and accounting for the economic growth expected to be spurred by the bill, that the percentage change in after-tax income increases — on average – as income rises. For example, in 2034, those in the bottom 20% of earners are expected to see a 0.5% increase in after-tax income. That percentage increases to 2.6% for the next 20% of earners. Those with incomes in the middle 20% — who earn between $38,572 and $73,905 — would see a 3.5% increase in after-tax income in 2034. The largest increase — 3.7% — would accrue to those in the top 20%, the Tax Foundation said.”

In a further analysis of the aforementioned lower income population, “The Penn Wharton Budget Model looked at the effect of the Senate version of the bill on lifetime income, and factored in the effect of cuts to Medicaid and food assistance. Using a model that takes into account the expected economic growth from the plan, the PWBM found, “that households most affected by the cuts to Medicaid and SNAP — those in the bottom income quintile — experience the largest losses under this bill, averaging $27,500 in lifetime value for the working-age population.”

If the “Big Beautiful Bill”, or B3 as some has dubbed it, was the biggest news over the holiday weekend, then it bears looking at the role of the Federal Reserve, principally its chair, Jerome Powell who Trump has attacked over not lowering interest rates, and sending him damning handwritten notes and also with floating the idea of a shadow chair, possibly Bessent.

We have noted, over several reports over many months, that Powell is data driven and the data and the role of interest rates is dependent on macro economic basics, not political desires. And, one of Powell’s concerns, and data points, are tariffs, especially in their uncertainty; and, especially now with Bessent’s announcements, and effects on consumer prices, which history has shown, will see an increase.

May Jobs Report: Still solid for the US

The jobs outlook for May, according to the US Dept. of Labor is still strong despite the threats of the tariffs from the Trump administration, and despite a slight softening from the previous month, and what was expected 139,000 non farm jobs is still a solid report and one that has surprised many observers, and economists, and despite expectations did not show a downturn from these tariffs.

This good news shows that despite the politicization of the American economy, all is well, and gave rise to accolades from the Administration, and The Council of American Advisors Chair Steve Miran, noted, "The President is succeeding in creating hundreds of thousands of jobs since he came into office, more than half a million jobs since he came into office, and they’re all going to native born Americans.”

The unchanged rate of 4.2 unemployment was also satisfactory, although predicted, but what changed was a lessening of the labor force participation rate among prime aged workers, those aged 25 to 54, who were looking for work, which dropped to 83.4, betraying, perhaps, a lack of confidence from Americans.

That stands in contrast to the average wages, that exceed inflation, which rose 0.4 percent from April, now at $36.24 an hour; and, even further American consumers are still spending, perhaps in no small measure to the increased wages, but, as some observers have noted, that spending may be to save money on goods to avoid the “on again off again” tariffs from the president.

Consumer confidence has waxed and waned in the last 8 weeks, with concerns about tariffs, and layoffs, but The Conference Board reported for May, that consumers were feeling more upbeat than thought:

“Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows.”

They also emphasized this: “However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

If this seems like a conundrum, then it is, with indicators expressing some level of confidence, and some improved beliefs, but, perhaps cautiously optimistic might be the best estimation.

The New York Times opined that, “The steady hiring is an indication that businesses are still seeing enough demand for goods and services that they will fill open roles and add new ones, even if they're no longer expanding as quickly as they had over the past few years.”

To note, for May, as seen in preceding months, the heavy hitters are health care jobs, coming in at 78,000 and leisure and hospitality at 48,000; but while others fell flat, manufacturing took a nosedive to the tune of 8,000 jobs.

DOGE cuts to the federal work force disposed of 22, 000 federal jobs in May, and according to the Times report, "down 59,000 since January. That’s not counting those on administrative leave, or who were let go when federal contacts were cut.”

It should be mentioned that a significant reason that health care is booming is due to an aging population in the US, coupled with social assistance, a broad category that includes, social work, allied health and community based programs from local and state governments.

This has not quelled the worries of Main Street, as well as Wall Street, since uncertainty is the one thing that both do not like. How that bodes for the future is anyone’s guess since no one can determine with any certainty what the end game is for the Trump efforts, is it a negotiation tactic? If so, that does not seem evident, as we noted some months ago covering the “Liberation Day” announcement in the White House Rose Garden, and the placard showing tariff rates held aloft by the president, that most experts discounted as fanciful.

The intersection with the global community cannot be discounted as it affects not only consumer purchases, but in the larger scheme, foreign trade, underscoring the fact that no country can produce all goods,(and even services) domestically.

The fly on the wall, at least according to statements from Trump in his social media platform, “Truth Social” and statements from White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, is that he is upset with Chair Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve, and has labelled him as a “disaster” and nicknamed him “Too Late” in his refusal to drop interest rate, as the Chair has steadfastly tried to separate the bank’s behavior from politics.

Trump’s beliefs are also supported by Vice President JD Vance who seems not to understand the role that interest rates, and putting more money into the economy curtail, all tied to inflation; and, how when there is too much money in the economy, leading to inflation, higher rates cool the economy down, and when lowered are needed, to stimulate the economy.

The current rate of inflation, 2.3, does not indicate a need to lower interest rates.

In a note to clients, and reported by the Times, Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said this report was too strong to warrant the Feds to cut interest rates, and, “with the Feds laser focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach.”