November Jobs Report Rebounds

Within a month, the US economy has turned the corner after the weakened jobs report for October that contained not one, but two hurricanes and a major strike that laid off 33,000 workers from Boeing, and while economists felt that was an aberration, Fridays report from the US Labor Dept. showed a healthy rebound to 227,000 non farm jobs, exceeding what most predicted to be at best, 200,000; but, the great news was that wages increased to 4 percent, and again exceeded inflation at 2.8 percent.

For those that have been watching the dial on the Federal Reserve, two things are apparent: one, that another interest rate cut is on the horizon, and two, the soft landing for the economy that critics derided, has seemingly  come to fruition.

Leading the job gains are health care and education at 79,000, 33,000 for government and 26,000 in the catch all of business services that have given a push to those related services.

Labor Force Participation remained the same at 83.5 percent, with a slight drop from two months ago when it was 85 percent,  

Unemployment showed an acceptable 4.2 percent, slightly higher than what was thought to be 4.1 percent, but does fit well with expectations of a slow down hiring, and some observers seeing this as somewhat inevitable.

“RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance that Friday's report reflects a "remarkably calm labor market" that is at full employment after accounting for October's distortions.”

That presages what most are seeing as positive gains after the October aberration.

One cloud over a calm sea was that retail hiring slipped to 28,000, that some are credited to online sales which have remained strong, even after the pandemic, but others note Marketplace are attributing this to the rise in automation, which on one hand has made life easier, and more productive for workers, but on the other, decreased the need for more workers, both behind and in front of the curtain, as anyone who shops the big box stores know, where there is one central checkout for several departments, and in one in which human is present there are the self checkout lanes, and even though derided by some Wal Mart shoppers does get you in and out of the store on a busy Saturday.

Returning to the Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance also reported that,“Entering the print, markets were widely expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December. As of Friday morning, markets are pricing in a nearly 87% chance the Fed cuts rates in December, up from a 66% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.”

"For the Fed, these numbers are going to be right in the spot of what they were looking for and they're comfortable with continuing easing policy at least at the December meeting," Citi senior global economist Robert Sockin told them. "This doesn't change the narrative that likely rates are restrictive and they have to at least come down a bit more at a gradual pace."

This may be good news for home buyers who have faced lowered mortgage interest rates. Zillow has noted that the 30 year fixed rate has ratcheted down by five basis points to 6.24; and, if the December 18 meeting of the Fed shows another interest rate decrease, things can look up for homeowners.

An oft quoted rule is that mortgage rates decrease with a strong economy and decrease with a weekend one, and they are already showing signs of trending downward.

While the overall report has been greeted warmly, there are some that are sending a cautionary note, especially regarding unemployment and the November unemployment figure of 4.2 percent, and CNN reported: “However, the unemployment rate ticked up last month to 4.2% from 4.1%, and a growing number of jobless Americans are taking longer to find a job — a reflection of a pullback in hiring. People are staying unemployed, on average, for 23.7 weeks (more than five months), the highest duration since April 2022, according to data released Friday.”

“The labor market is healthy even though it is, in the long term, trending in an unhealthy direction,” Noah Yosif, chief economist for the American Staffing Association, told CNN in an interview Friday. “What we’re seeing is really a K-shaped duality of outcomes for the labor market: It’s good if you have a job, but it’s very, very difficult if you don’t have a job.”

Layoffs have been mild in comparison and taking a wide range look, we can see that,  “With November’s gains, the US has added jobs for 47 consecutive months, making it the third-longest period of employment expansion on record.”

There is conconcer that if the declines increase a snowball effect could take hold. But, of course, much depends on the incoming Trump administration and what changes the president could implement, especially with control of the White House and both the Senate and the House.

The pending deportations of illegal immigrants, in whatever shape, or form could greatly affect the economy, especially in construction, where nearly one thirds of laborers are possible illegal immigrants, not to mention farm workers, long a haven for undocumented workers.

The elephant in the room are the proposed tariffs of 25 percent, on Canada, Mexico, and even higher for China, and has been widely reported have a detrimental effect on the US economy, and consumer buying which is the bedrock of the American economy. 

Suggestions that these are negotiating tools for Trump are, at this point speculation, but definitely a cause for concern.  If the so-called DOGE efforts at reducing government waste, a laudable goal, but if it includes layoffs, those could have a detrimental effect on national employment.

Aftermath: The Defeat of Kamala Harris

Just before last Tuesday’s election, things looked great for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee to succeed President Joe Biden after his decision in July not to run for reelection. After that announcement, and her entry into the race she managed to energize the base, and her infectious smile and masterful detail was definitely a threat to her rival former President Donald Trump, and her rallies attracted huge crowds, waving, clapping with visible energy.

Harris had outspent Trump to the tune of $1.4 billion, but widely identified herself as the underdog, and with the increasing attention given to him, this was smart politicking, especially as well as realism since many polls identified the two as neck and neck, in some instances 50/50 and in others, a notch, or two, above each other.

She definitely ran a better, stronger, and faster campaign than her first run for the presidency in 2020, where management lacked strength and the capacity to prepare her for facts and figures. But, this time, her efforts were not merely photogenic, but substantial as she managed the landscape of interviews and statements, with a staff that was sharper in their handling, than many other modern presidential campaigns.

In this sense, Harris definitely picked up the torch from Biden who suffering from the flu, stumbled badly in his debate with Trump, and her background as attorney general of California, and her legal training, prepared her for her debate with Trump, who seemed old, enfeebled and unprepared as she steam rolled over him with both polity and grace.

It was always a closely contested race, and many had predicted a razor thin win for Harris, who had to contend with both her gender, as well as her Indian and Jamaican ethnicity’, which she wisely did not capitalize on, having learned the lessons of the defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Election night brought more than a case of anxiety for her supporters, but championed a victory, no matter how thin, as she was lampooned, cursed, and ridiculed by Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, as they blamed her for every ill, both real and imagined, for the last four years, with the exception of the common cold.

As the returns came in all were watching the seven critical swing states that could deliver her the needed 270 electoral votes, and as North Carolina, there was still optimism as Harris had not expected to lead in the Tar Heel state; but, as the evening wore on, and tired fans went to bed, they woke to the news that Trump had won three key battleground states, Wisconsin, Michigan and the highly coveted Pennsylvania.

Harris supporters holding vigil at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington, DC, were deflated in their misery. And, while the book is yet to be written on why, opinions have rolled in from every corner: some blaming Biden for not dropping out of the race earlier, with the Democrats then holding a primary, to sexism and misogyny, to Trump being the devil known.

There has been some speculation that many said they would vote for her, but then stayed at home, either undecided, or worried about being denied the right to vote by a well-financed GOP juggernaut; and, as we saw in Georgia there was an attempt to demand hand counts, plus the electric ballot boxes, and also to other states where election officials were sued in specious claims of voter fraud.

Now that the dust has somewhat settled, we are seeing that there was an edge, not momentous, not enough for Trump to claim a mandate, but an increase in votes from the burgeoning Latino populations whose working-class roots, in many cases, focused them on kitchen table issues that dominated their budgets, such as high grocery prices, and rent, despite the fact that US presidents do not control them.

There was also a younger male Black population that felt the Trump years were kinder to their wallets, based more on perception than fact. Black voters overall voted 8 out of 10 for Harris, but this was down from 9 out of 10 in 2020 for Biden.

Significantly, it was younger Black males, 19 to 45 years old that gave Trump the edge, double the amount that he got in 2020, and roughly double the amount that he got in 2020.

Harris got a lead from Latino voters, but down from the 6 out of 10 that Biden received in 2020.

Race, always an issue in American life, and especially in politics, showed that White voters, always the majority of American voters, voted in higher numbers in those three swing states, and it was especially notable with older White voters, particularly those in rural areas, a fact which had been determined by many pollsters.

As the Associated Press reported, “white voters make up a bulk of the voting electorate in the United States, and they did not shift their support significantly at the national level compared to 2000.”

Interestingly enough they noted that White support for Harris was about the same for Biden, four out of ten voted for Harris.

Much has been made of the increased Latino vote, but it may not quite be the juggernaut that it seems

In the past, social class and race were clarion calls for the Democrats had definitely relied on working class voters decades ago, and Blacks had been a mainstay since Civil Rights struggles and victories in the 1960s.

Taking into consideration what was then and what now, an important factor was the education of the electorate, both for Trump, as well as Harris. The base for the former had always capitalized on those Whites, especially rural people without college degrees, and an early CNN poll showed that those that had college degrees, or some college, tended to vote for Harris and less for Trump, far less.

Not to be overlooked  in this equation is the low level of information that fueled much of those voters, that led them to embrace the accusations by Trump, and Vance, that legal Haitian immigrants, in Ohio were abducting and eating pet dogs and cats; a claim that Vance later admitted to CNN anchor Dana Bash was false, but he deemed necessary to get media attention to the plight of American workers.

A durable myth for younger Blacks, and even some of their elders, was that Biden, and all presidents, set the prices of groceries and other durable goods; but also not knowing that Trump had given a brief and temporary tax cut for the average income Americans, but a near permanent, and much deeper cut for corporations.

As a letter writer to the New York Times noted somewhat  ruefully, had they been better educated critical thinking skills would have been utilized to analyze these falsehoods, or at the very least, read the more reliable media reports that showed them to be untruthful.

Added to this was the deep well of lies, of which the pet eating was just one example from Trump, and his MAGA followers, joined by the earlier claim by QANON that John Kennedy, Jr, was still alive and would be Trump’s running mate, while some even gathered in Dealey Plaza, the sight of his father’s assassination in Dallas,waiting for him to reappear.

Even further afield was a claim that Democrats were responsible for hurricane Milton, by “seeding” the clouds to produce the devastating event, for the sole intention of preventing southerners, White Southerners, from voting for Trump.

Cultural myths accompanied these outlandish claims, and one of the most salient was that Harris was going to allow federal inmates to receive gender change surgeries at taxpayer expense; a position that she did not run on, but based on statements, she made in 2019, for legalized treatments for gender dysphoria, and that one surgery was performed after a lawsuit on behalf of the prisoner.

Redolent of the earlier bathroom wars, the issue of transgender people became fodder for ridicule and stereotyping Democrats as being out of touch with “real” Americans.

Added to this, by Trump supporters, were profane and misogynist statements leveled at Harris, including racial stereotypes, as “stupid” and “lazy” and even calling her the ‘C” word.

Much of his base laughed and applauded at these remarks, but as we noted in 2016, this was promulgated by  fear-based politics, from the playbook that he used then, and with this recent campaign.

These statements often fell on the ears of some Black men, especially those with conservative and biblically held gender beliefs, coupled with sexism, and the disbelief that a woman could be president, ironic thst those beliefs translated to votes for Trump, and with the matriarchy of many Black communities, irony ruled; despite the appeals of former President Barack Obama.

There was also voter apathy, and even abandonment, from part of this group as we heard a conversation on the bus from one Black man who said, “I have never voted, and never will.”

Hearing this we thought of those violent and bloody battles that American Blacks faced for the right to vote in the 1960s, a fact that was broadcast on the BBC when its program host said just before last Tuesday, “universal suffrage did not come to America until 1965, and yes, you heard that right.”  

Moving to the disinformation, a casual glance at the social media platform X gives Trump supporters plenty of ammunition to thwart Harris from vile and demeaning comments about supposed sexual behavior with Willie Brown to lewd dancing, and even a hilarious clip of Vance blaming her for the price of eggs at $4.00 per dozen while he held a two dozen carton, but a sign in the background showed  a price of $2.99 a dozen, as his young son, who accompanied him, tried frantically, to point out his error.

It was a bit rich to try and portray Harris as a sexual renegade with Trump’s multiple marriages, where he was unfaithful, and frequently entered the dressing rooms of his pageant beauty queens when he thought they would be undressed; and notably his sexual encounter with porn star Stormy Daniels while his wife was pregnant with their son Baron.

Of course no one can forget his claim of grabbing women by the genitals on Access Hollywood, and that they let him because he was a celebrity. But, his supporters seem to forget all of this as they see him as a political savior to return the United States to its glory days, much as Russian President Vladimir Putin claims to restore his country to its Imperial past; and, a man he sincerely admirers along with anther authoritarian leader Viktor Orban, prime minister of Hungary.

His admiration for authoritarian leaders across the world, including Hitler, according to John Kelly, his former chief of staff, and a point of criticism by Vance before he aligned himself with Trump.

A brief look back at Trump’s earlier claims during his first run for office as he untruthfully categorized Mexican immigrants as rapists and murderers, it’s clear to see that the playbook of that time was still in evidence, with Vance much like comedian Johnny Carson’s sidekick Ed McMahon, on the old Tonight show, providing backup, often comedic as we’ve seen.

Lies as we have seen have been part and parcel of Trump’s candidacies and as historian Ruth Ben Ghiat has noted, “The number of documented falsehoods he uttered as president increased from 5.9 a day in 2017 to an average of 22 a day in 2019, for a total of 16,241 in his first three years in office.”

We can expect more in his second non consecutive term, and If we take all of the false claims, the misbeliefs of those who voted for Trump, and his past administration together, it says less about Harris, than it does how American voters both receive and process information, no matter how truthful. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Win, lose or draw: Trump versus Harris

After what has seemed an eternity, the 2024 presidential election is here. In the closely held contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, it’s game on, and the stakes are high for Trump is seeking not only to regain the Oval Office, but a return to the tenets of his previous term:  anti immigration, anti trans rights, anti civil rights for Black Americans and name calling plus shaming and profaning all who oppose him.

Harris is looking for a restoration, of sorts, of the ideals last espoused by former President Barack Obama, taking a humanist stance that serves the public with an enhancement of American values: equality for all, immigration reform, common sense gun reform laws, economic justice and reproductive rights to name but a few.

In the aftermath of the candidate’s televised debate, it would be hard to imagine that the American electorate is still undecided on who to vote for; yet, there are those independent voters estimated to be about 5 percent who are the target of Trump and Harris.

For the last week both candidates have been crisscrossing the battle states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada, and Arizona, to name a few, to persuade  those that might give them the winning edge.

Any presidential election is ultimately a numbers game, with 270 electoral votes needed to secure the White House, and these last few weeks polls have prompted intensive actions, but while polls have attempted to outdo each other with predictions on the winner, they are not, in fact, predictors.

A look back in history shows a poll that became the infamous headline of the Chicago Daily Tribune which blared, “Dewey defeats Truman” and the photo of a grinning Harry Truman after he won the presidency; all polls are, in and of themselves, a snapshot at a given time of what a slice of the electorate is thinking, not a predictor of outcomes. 

While a liberal, even progressive, ideology has held sway for the Harris camp, it’s the same old playbook for Trump as he brandishes his strongman authoritarian style blaming migrants for every social ill in the United States, accusing them of polluting the bloodlines of Americans, and in an egregious example is the case of Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, which he accuses of abducting and eating pet animals, and ducks, from local waters. 

This is an absolutely false assertion, but it lives large in the playbook, as Trump’s base eats it up; despite his running mate JD Vance admitting in a  CNN interview that it was false, but needed to alert the media of the crisis of illegal immigration, even though the Haitians are legal immigrants under the federal TPS program.

All of thich is a continuation of the politics of fear, as we noted in 2016 when Trump won the presidency:

“His clarion call to a base of angry and older white men - who made up over 60% of his vote, gave credence to the cultural, racial and educational divide that has marked the United States for over two decades. As they watched the progressive and liberal legislators, and legislation, give power to women, blacks, and gays, to their consternation, they voted with near religious fervor on Tuesday. This was indeed, some felt, their last stand to stop the final anathema: a female president, especially, the spouse of the often despised Bill Clinton.”

Harris and the Democrats have tried to counter these lies with factual refutations, yet oftentimes it seems that Trump supporters are willing to ignore the facts. Some wags have called Trump “Teflon Don” for the way these refutations and criticisms have rolled off his back.

The recent hurricanes in Florida and nearby southeastern states have even prompted the lie that the Democrats deliberately caused the hurricane through some type of scientific hocus pocus to prevent Trump supporters in those areas from voting for him, an idea propagated by Georgia lawmaker, Marjorie Taylor Greene,

Immigration Denigration

Trump recently held a rally In New York at Madison Square Garden where he garnered even more negative blowbacks, but this time in response to featured Texas based stand-up comedian Tony Hinchcliffe who made a series of racist statements about Harris, and referred to Puerto Rico, a US possession as a “a floating island of garbage,”and according to The Hill,  “prompting some members of the GOP, like Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who is Puerto Rican, to come out against the remarks.”

To add insult to injury, “the comedian also made a crude joke about Latinos in which he said “they love making babies too. Just know that. They do. They do. There’s no pulling out. They don’t do that. They come inside. Just like they did to our country.”

It seems self defeating If Trump wants to capture the votes of 36 million Hispanci votes, and the Trump campaign might have just realized that since they have pushed back on Hinchcliffe remarks, and some GOP lawmakers have gone on record, as reported, in protest:

“I’m proud to be Puerto Rican. My mom was born and raised in Puerto Rico,” D’Esposito wrote on the social platform X. “It’s a beautiful island with a rich culture and an integral part of the USA. The only thing that’s ‘garbage’ was a bad comedy set. Stay on message.”

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.), who was born in Cuba but raised in part in Puerto Rico, said on X that she was “disgusted” by Hinchcliffe’s remarks. “This rhetoric does not reflect GOP values,” she said to the media.

Also, reported by The Hill: “The Trump campaign, too, has distanced itself from the comedian’s rhetoric. Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, said on “Fox & Friends” on Monday that “it was a comedian who made a joke in poor taste.”

“Obviously, that joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or our campaign, and I think it is sad that the media will pick up on one joke that was made by a comedian, rather than the truths that were shared by the phenomenal list of speakers that we had,” she said.

After publicly condemning the remarks, Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, Hinchcliffe replied to Walz with the following statement:

“These people have no sense of humor,” he wrote. “Wild that a vice presidential candidate would take time out of his ‘busy schedule’ to analyze a joke taken out of context to make it seem racist. I love Puerto Rico and vacation there. I made fun of everyone … watch the whole set. I’m a comedian Tim … might be time to change your tampon.”

That’s scant consolation for the voters that the campaign wants to court, and a deflection from insulting a major voting bloc, but one in keeping with how Trump’s people respond to negative press.

Reuters reported that, “Still, some Trump allies were less concerned. The former president and his allies have leaned into personal insults and racist rhetoric in the campaign's final months, but his standing in the polls has not deteriorated.”

Voter Disenfranchisement

Hovering in the background is the specter of voter disenfranchisement that has been a legacy of the pre civil rights area in America with echoes of voter registration drives, the death of three of the “Freedom Riders” and countless civil and federal lawsuits and legislation, that has unfortunately devolved into the US Supreme Court repeal of the preclearance act in 2013, in Shelby County v. Holder, which opened the doors to weakening the Voting rights act of 1965.

Ominously, there have been threats against poll workers, demands for ballot boxes to be broken open and hand counted to “prevent” errors,which would result in more errors, including worker fatigue after a long day.

In a previous post we quoted:  “Aided by technology, conservative groups are pumping out mass challenges to plant falsehoods, and in another battleground state, Michigan”, in random lawsuits.

David Becker, founder and executive director of the center for Election Innovation & Research, a nonpartisan organization that advises local election officials nationwide, told The Reflector, “When you see efforts to do mass challenges in the midst of the presidential primaries and months before a major election, i've got to wonder whether the intent is to create chaos and confusion amongst voters rather than legitimate list maintenance.”

Recent moves by the Georgia election Board to do hand counts, and other measures designed to slow the certification process, disenfranchise voters, and other last minute maneuvers have been blocked by Georgia judges.

With the close election Republicans are desperate to win and have said that foreign nationals will vote in the election with coordination by the Democratic party, and while such falsehoods are being spread, there is no evidence of that; and, the likelihood of a foreign national voting in any election and exposing themselves to fines, and arrest, is a definite barrier, especially to those that might be in the country illegally.

“After the 2016 election, the Brennan Center for Justice, which advocates for voting rights, surveyed local election officials in 42 jurisdictions with high immigrant populations and found just 30 cases of suspected noncitizens voting out of 23.5 million votes cast, or 0.0001%,” reported NPR in late October.

Topping the list of lies that the Trump campaign has promoted is the continuation of the BIG lie that the 2020 election was rigged to put Joe Biden in the White House. 

It’s so pervasive that millions of supporters believe it, and their numbers seem to increase exponentially each week; and  Vance has refused to, even when asked point blank, to tell the truth. In fact, it has become a politically useful falsehood.

Migrants as political tools

Immigration, both legal and illegal has become, over the years, a useful tactic used by the GOP to appeal to its base, and the fear stoked in Trump’s campaign in 2016 that Mexico was sending rapists to the United States has stuck, and has been extended to those seeking asylum from Honduras, El Saalvador and Venezuela has now become the top issue for Republicans.

Notably, it was Texas Gov. Gregg Abbot who sent 102,000 migrants to so-called “sanctuary cities” across the country, and spent $148 million to do so. Using people fleeing from poverty, violence and political instability as pawns increased his profile, but was condemned by many humanitarians, and the governments of those jurisdictions that received them, some of whom, like Chicago, spent $1.5 million each day for their care.

Race had a great deal to do with it, and as one person told us, “You wouldn’t see this as problematic if they had been Swedish,” and noted that Chicago, who struggled to find housing and food for thousands of Venezeuelans and their children, easily accommodated Ukranians, but then they were white not brown.

The consequences of these calculated actions have also resulted in Ohio Haitians facing fear, and in response some schools were closed and some business owners, who hired them, were threatened.

While no one can say that racial prejudice has not been a part of American history, that same history has shown what is known as nativism, seen most prominently in the 1860s during the Draft Riots in New York City in 1863 where Irish immigrants were drafted to fight in the Civil War, rather than the wealthy (who used proxies), and the subsequent mele involved violence and extended to the death of many African Americans as well, identified as the cause for the war draft.

This same level of nativism has continued, not just with Trump and his “America First” platform, but was preceded by the legendary aviator Charles Lindbergh, who along with author Kathleen Norris, and others, first created the term, and the movement.

The politics of fear was writ large with chants  of “Build the Wall” that still resonates with many of the MAGA crowd.

Trump has said that he will use mass deportation to remove migrants and immigrants from the southern border and The Independent has reported that “Donald Trump is considering withholding federal police grants to local agencies that refuse to carry out his mass deportation plan, a report claims,” to skirt possible lawsuits based on their conversations with NBC News.

The Biden-Harris administration has faced enormous challenges in dealing with an increase in migration to the southern border, with some feeling that the new administration would be more tolerant of immigration, and especially those in an urgent need to escape, even crossing the dangerous Darien Gap.

Immigration, which has been noted many times, across several media platforms has been long need of reform and faced its last legislative effort in 1986, and titled, “the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986, made it illegal to hire or recruit illegal immigrants, while also legalizing some 2.7 million undocumented residents who entered the United States before 1982.”

A recent bipartisan bill that would have helped start a new path for immigration was defeated by Republicans under Trump’s direct order.

It would have provided, as the Harris campaign has noted, “the strongest reform in decades. The legislation would have deployed more detection technology to intercept fentanyl and other drugs and added 1,500 border security agents to protect our border.”

To be fair, most of the fentanyl that comes to the United States comes through legal points of entry. And, the southern border has also seen not just people from Mexico, Honduras, and El Salvador, but also Southeast Asians, and others.

One aspect of immigration, often neglected by Republicans, was that in 1986, “The law did not provide a legal way for the great number of low-skilled workers wishing to enter the United States. Following this 1986 law, almost 12 million undocumented workers came illegally across the U.S. border. It was estimated that this illegal workforce made up about five percent of the U.S. workforce. It was also estimated that about 70 percent of those illegal workers were from Mexico.”

On the domestic front, many wealthy white households employ a variety of housekeepers, nannies and gardeners, all flying under the radar of local and federal officials. And, critics note that the creation of this shadow employment has also created a permanent underclass.

The social media platform X has been awash in labeling Harris as the “Border Czar,” a title that she never had and was tasked only by Biden to examine the root causes of southern migration, and of which she was filmed telling prospective immigrants, ‘Do not come.”

The Biden administration wrestled with how to stem the flow, and balance legitimate asylum claims, and created a smartphone app for prospective immigrants to apply for admission and asylum, but the program was so “buggy” that it often failed those who needed it the most.

It is stated, through her campaign website, that “As President, she will bring back the bipartisan border security bill and sign it into law. At the same time, she knows that our immigration system is broken and needs comprehensive reform that includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship.”

Abortion

The next, and most salient, issue for the Democrats is abortion, or as properly labeled reproductive care, long an issue of division for the US, but also especially for women a tool of empowerment over their own bodies, especially for problem pregnancies, in which the life of the mother as well as her fetus are endangered.

Harris has been the White House’s public face for efforts to improve maternal health and ensure some abortion access, despite the Supreme Court ruling. Earlier this year, she became the highest-ranking U.S. official to make a public visit to an abortion clinic,” noted The Associated Press,

Trump placed three conservative judges on the Supreme Court, and of them, both very conservative, Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh, both Catholic, faced intense scrutiny and in the case of Barrett, an irregular confirmation, shoehorned in by Trump, and the first issue they faced headlong was the repeal of Roe V. Wade in 2022; and, since then over a dozen states have restricted abortion, and while making cases for exceptions, the details can easily cause doctors performing abortions, even to save the life of the mother in legal jeopardy, say those who study abortion. And, those medical emergencies are so narrow in many cases, as we see below, that the Biden administration fought against their definitions.

Harris in her debate with Trump put it succinctly when she said, ““You want to talk about this is what people wanted? Pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term, suffering from a miscarriage, being denied care in an emergency room because health care providers are afraid they might go to jail and she’s bleeding out in a car in the parking lot?”

The reality she stated has been faced by countless women and two died in Georgia because of this very same dilemma, and perhaps nowhere is this more evident than in the state of Idaho where the 6 week ban, (when many women don’t even know that they are pregnant) has played out with anguish.

Trump, and the GOP playbook, Project 2025, has at its nadir, the use of the Comstock Law, an 1873 anti vice law that, if used, would outlaw not only the medication used for over two thirds of abortions in the country, Mifepristone, but also threaten the equipment used by clinics “that need to do their jobs,” reported The Guardian.

As a consequence 13 percent of infants die in their first year of life across the US, note researchers.

Of note, Trump has flip flopped on the issue of abortion, and while he has not stated that he would favor a national ban, and said he would veto a national ban, the use of the Comstock Act, he would not not need Congress to enact a national ban.

Joined by lawsuits across the country could use that act to do just that, a ban; and Justice Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, “both brought up the 151 year old law in recent arguments,” The Guardian also reported. 

American voters face a challenge on these issues, and more, and the crowds on both sides of the candidates face a certain level of anxiety on the outcome; but there are predictions and warnings that Trump won’t admit defeat, and instead declare victory even before the votes are counted, a calculated move to help foment violence in a reset of the attacks on the Capitol on January 6th, the day that lives in infamy for many Americans.

On Wednesday November 6th, Donald Trump was declared winner with 270 electoral votes

Updated November 6, 2024

US Jobs hit a snag for October

In a surprise to most, Friday’s Jobs report released by the US Bureau of Labor gave a shockingly low figure of 12,000 non farm jobs created, but the caveat was that the low figure was faulted by hurricanes Milton and Helene and the Boeing strike. Despite that most economists and government officials state that the American economy is still solid. A truer picture will come in December with the release of the November report.

While there are still complains about high prices, especially at the grocery store, inflation has actually come down by 2,4 a steady decrease from 2.5 in September, but public sentiment is that it is still too high, perhaps forgetting that those pre pandemic prices are unlikely to come back; and, that once retailers and suppliers, confounded three years ago, by supply chain issues, and higher overhead saw consumers continue to shop, so they were unlikely to decrease their profit margins, even if they could do so.

The good news is that wages for October increased to 0.4 percent, making them higher than inflation, and correspondingly consumer spending remained high, the driver of the US economy.

NPR reported this: "You’re still seeing wages and salaries running ahead of inflation," says economist Sarah House at Wells Fargo. "So that’s still really beneficial for overall consumer spending growth and keeping it in the black.”

With the presidential election just around the corner and former president Donald Trump saying that he heard Americans and that the US single handedly bringing inflation down and restoring manufacturing jobs, while proposing a tariff that would increase consumer goods prices, a political conundrum exists.

VIce President Kamala Harris seems on surer ground with proposed efforts to prevent price gouging, but that might be a heavy lift without congressional support.

The Household Survey Data continue to show steady news: an unemployment rate little changed at 4.1 and the number of unemployed people at 7.0 million, great but perhaps not spectacular news for Harris, but neverthel;ess a solid number that the country can take pride in, Trump excepted.

Labor Force Participation those aged from 25 to 54 years old held a slight decrease from 83.8 percent to 83.5 percent,

Longterm unemployment remained at 1.6 million, little changed from the prior month. So, on an optimistic side, nothing lost, nothing gained, due to the storms and the Boeing layoff, but room for improvement, if not markedly so.

Temporary employment  took dramatic losses, since March of 2022, and steadily decreased for a few months, now reaching 49,000 for October.

Second to that significance was manufacturing which lost 46,000 jobs due to the decline of 44,000 in the manufacturing of transportation equipment from the machinist strike at Boeing.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Bank at their meeting next week, and they are expecting, as planned, a quarter percentage point decrease in interest rates to keep the economy chugging.