Omarosa and Trump's racially coded language

For those that have been following the escapades from the Trump White House, perhaps none was more intriguing than the revelations, last week, from the president’s supreme cheerleader Omarosa Manigault Newman, who had been the primary voice for his black supporters; in fact, some wags suggested that she might be his only one.

So it was shocking that Manigault Newman kept tapes of the president using disparaging racial terminology,  and also the book that she recently authored, where she describes him as a racist and a misogynist -- and even more startling was the response from White House spokesperson, Sarah Huckabee Sanders who said that “she could not guarantee that Mr. Trump had never used the N-word” as reported in The New York Times.

What the president said, in his tweets, spoke volumes about coded language that white Americans use for black Americans -- the use of the term “that dog” both disparaged both Manigault Newman’s race and gender in a way that was “deeply racial” said Eddie S. Glaude, Jr, the chairman of the African-American studies department at Princeton University, noted the Times.

Extending the insult to a “low life” is suggestive of blacks more than whites, even though it is more than evident that whites can both be and act like low lifes. But as Glaude noted, by extension the tweet also questions her intelligence and that “it’s important to understand the legacy, the history of the attack on black intelligence as a way of justifying our dehumanization.”

In fact, the president said, Manigault Newman, was “vicious, but not smart,” to underscore his point.

For many black professional women, they are called “bossy” and “sassy” when they are only being assertive in their roles -- yet when a white woman, has done this in the past, such as Leona Helmsley, they were honored, and not vilified.

“One person who's faced these words is Michelle Obama, who has been described as uppity and sassy even as she was simply fulfilling her role as first lady.”

Trump took that even further with Manigault Newman, by calling her “deranged.”.

Coded language in American political and social life has been part of the contemporary landscape for several decades, and as an example, appeals to “law and order” were code words for keeping blacks in a subjugated state, or in their place, to use the parlance from another generation.

“Central to the discussion of racial politics is how coded language is used to talk about race, particularly by conservatives. Nonetheless, coded language has not always been the norm. Starting with the civil rights movement of the 1960s most race baiting rhetoric has moved into the realm of implicit coded language. Much of this changed in 2015 when businessman Donald Trump made the announcement that he was running for President. Suddenly it was as if the code meant less, it did not go away, but Trump and his supporters found it less necessary to use it,” noted Adam Bruno in a paper he presented at Valparaiso University in 2017.

Commenting on the race baiting of Richard Nixon and Alabama Governor George Wallace,  and its catapult into American politics, he said that  in 1968, when “Republican Richard Nixon defeated Democrat Hubert Humphrey and Independent George Wallace. This election featured the beginning of “law and order” rhetoric and the birth of the “southern strategy”; two major aspects of coded language that became a central part of American politics.”

Stepping ahead to “2015, a CNN segment over a word turned into an awkward, dramatic confrontation. When host Erin Burnett asked why the word "thug" isn't an acceptable way to describe predominantly black protesters and rioters in Baltimore, City Councilman Carl Stokes responded, "Come on. So calling them thugs? Just call them ni**ers."

Burnett, who is white, didn't seem to understand the history that made the word offensive to black Americans. Stokes, who is black, reacted to Burnett's comments with a blunt description of how many black people interpret "thug" when it's lodged against them,” said Vox in 2016.

In its starkest terms, "Current racial code operates by appealing to deep-seated stereotypes of groups that are perceived as threatening. But they differ from naked racial terms in that they don't emphasize biology — so it's not references to brown skin or black skin, says “Ian Haney-López, a professor at the University of California Berkeley, author of “Dog Whistle Politics: How Coded Racial Appeals Have Reinvented Racism and Wrecked the Middle Class.”

With Manigault Newman, it’s clear that Trump knows the difference, for as Haney-López said: "It allows people to say, 'Hey, I'm just criticizing the behavior, not criticizing a racially defined group.”

Looking back to the 2016 presidential campaign, we have Trump In his campaign announcement speech, where he infamously said, "When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. ... They're sending people that have lots of problems. And they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people."

Haney-López explained, "He's saying, 'Focus on the behavior. Focus on the fact that I'm willing to concede that some might be good people. And let me off the hook for trading in racist stereotypes, because I'm not talking in biological terms about monolithic groups. I'm not saying every Mexican is a rapist. I'm just saying a lot of them are.' That's the move."

In large cities, such as Chicago, where we reside, and in nearby cities like Detroit, we have another example: “After white flight out of cities and into suburbs in the 1950s and '60s, the American public and politicians began to associate inner-city life with race. As a result, terms like "inner city" and "urban" have been widely adopted to refer to black people — but they have also been used by prominent figures to refer to high crime and poor work ethic in a way that effectively connects crime, violence, and laziness with black Americans.”

The economic and social disinvestment in Chicago’s South and West sides, crime withstanding have contributed to an overall loss of opportunity for many long term black residents, who first moved there as part of The Great Migration, in search of freedom from the segregated Jim Crow South.

Fast forward to Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, in 2014, who said the following: “"We have got this tailspin of culture, in our inner cities in particular, of men not working and just generations of men not even thinking about working or learning the value and the culture of work, and so there is a real culture problem here that has to be dealt with."

Who can forget Ronald Reagan invoking the “welfare queen”  in a speech, as his wife Nancy, laughed, and applauded, as he described the former, driving in her Cadillac to collect a welfare check, in a no-holds taken attack on all poor black Americans, but especially those who purportedly misused the system.

Even the fact of crime in America’s large cities takes a turn, where “The single most common response to concerns about racial disparities in police use of force and the criminal justice system is, "But what about black-on-black crime?"

The question raises the disproportionate levels of crime in black communities — particularly the thousands of homicides each year in which the offender and victim are black — to, on its face, argue that people should worry about black-on-black crime before they worry about police brutality.

But it's also playing on a racist idea: that black people are all criminals, so they deserve to be treated differently. The idea is that since crime is higher in black communities, police are justified in going into these places and essentially doing as they wish.”

Trump’s exploitation of the societal divisions that some Americans have retained, even after the social revolution of the 1960s, is more than a diversionary tactic, that some have called it. Trump has rallied a base of discontent, which has now come to the surface in an ugly and confrontational manner.

With the demonstration of white supremacists in Charlottesville, Va, last year, that resulted in the death of a counter demonstrator,  the president was reluctant to assign blame to the former, and would only say that both sides were to blame; and, this year, on the anniversary of the event, he said that he condemned all forms of racism, in a nod, perhaps, to the dubious term, “reverse racism” showing how he is appealing not only to his critics, but using racial code to address his overwhelmingly white base of support.

Matters also came to a last year, when Trump fumbled to remember the name of Sgt. La David Johnson, who was killed in a mission in Niger, in a condolence call with his widow, Myeshia Johnson, where he amazingly said, “he knew what he was getting into,” and to make it worse, referred to Johnson, not as her husband, but “your guy,” implying that black couples don’t marry, but simply cohabitate.

Congresswoman, Frederica Wilson, called him out, on these remarks, and he sent retired Marine General, and now Chief of Staff, John Kelly, out to shield him from the subsequent media attacks. Then he uttered the, by now, infamous “empty barrel” remark about the congresswoman, that demeaned her as a black woman, in power, not talking about her racial characteristics, but her intelligence.

There seems to be a long list of strong and intelligent black women that the president seems to have a problem with, such as journalist April Ryan, Rep. Maxine Waters, former Ambassador Susan Rice, and television anchor Jemele Hill; so adding Manigault Newman to the mix is just another part of being Donald Trump.

Ohio too close to call, Dems celebrate as GOP cringes

Scarcely three months ago, were most pundits, including our friends across the pond, writing off the Democrats after the crash and burn of the 2016 loss to Hillary Clinton, for president, by Donald Trump. Some called her incoherent, others, a liar, and some of those were Democrats.

Adding to the morass, and the stench of failure, was the charge that the Dems had no core, no soul, and that far too much of their time was spent on the same-old menu of gender-neutral bathrooms and LGBTQ ascendants, and not enough on why many Americans were dissatisfied with the government they had, and not the one they wanted.

All of that now is beginning to sound harsh, as well as untrue, since the Dems have begun to gain in the ballot box, especially in special elections, to fill vacant seats, even though the real test comes in the November. Midterm elections

In late May, Democrats held a 6-point advantage, but that was down from a 10-point lead in February, and some pollsters predicted that they would need at least the 7.5 percent advantage that they had in the 2006 election, to make any gains in November.

Wedded to those numbers is a strong need for a large voter turnout for success of any kind; and, while polls have shown that there is far more enthusiasm among Democratic voters, than Republicans, and as Domenico Montanaro, noted on NPR.org, if that was true in primaries and special elections, it would be “the surest real-time sign that of high water coming in.”

Looking from the shoreline we can now see the truth in his statement; there was Stacey Abrams, routing out an old-school Southern male rival, who allegedly, and inappropriately, engaged with an underage girl, sending revulsion down the line, and Abrams to the cover of Time Magazine.

Now the Republicans are planning triage on which districts they could lose, and which they could win, while the Democrats are poking at the low hanging fruit in what were once reliably GOP districts like Ohio suburbs, such as Westerville, where residents proudly admit to voting Republican, but now are auguring for better discipline, and against the person of President Trump.

Some crossed over to vote for the boyish looking Danny O’Connor, for a House seat that Republicans have held for 30 years.

His opponent, Troy Balderson, is backed by President Donald Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich but some rebuked him as a bland lawmaker without true appeal, yet others noted “The race was surprisingly close for a district that Trump won by 11 percentage points in 2016 and Republicans have held for decades.”

While Balderson, got 1,754 and O’Connor got 101,500 Ohio voting laws mandates that an automatic recount be done “if the two candidates are ultimately separated by less than half a percentage point,” reported The New York Times.

Upping the ante, Ohio media reported on Thursday, that “The tight race between Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson just got tighter. Election officials in Franklin County found 588 previously uncounted votes in a Columbus suburb. The result: O'Connor had a net gain of 190 votes, bringing the race's margin down to 1,564.

"The votes from a portion of one voting location had not been processed into the tabulation system," according to a Franklin County Board of Elections news release.

Balderson declared victory Tuesday night in the closely watched central Ohio race. But O'Connor says he's waiting for all votes to be counted.

That includes 3,435 provisional ballots and 5,048 absentee ballots, which will be tabulated by Aug. 24.”

This too-close-to-call narrative has everyone on the edge of their seats, since this seems to be a harbinger of times to come, and “O’Connor, has not conceded the race — he called it “a tied ball game” on Tuesday night — and is set to face Mr. Balderson again in the November general election.”

The showing that O’Connor gave was not only fueled by more than $2 million of advertising cash, but he did what we have suggested before, he talked about issues that Ohioans, and many others, care about: health care, (especially the demise of protection for those with pre-existing conditions), but also a top-heavy Trumpian tax plan that rewards mostly the wealthy, and threatens Medicare and Social Security, for everyone else.

Balderson, on the other hand, gave the usual mantra against the Dems, described then as “tax and spend” and now the troika of raising taxes, and abolishing ICE, and the poster child for their hate, Nancy Pelosi.

That old tune, even with new lyrics, is not working as Democrats are now enjoying a huge rush of popularity, along with success, in these elections.

“There’s a real likelihood that they not only win the House, but they win it by 10 or 12 more seats than they need,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, voicing publicly what many Republican officials have begun to acknowledge privately this summer.”

Humorously, but honestly, Graham, also noticed a shift, if not, a cleave, in GOP backyards, such as those in Ohio: “We’re bleeding among women and the enthusiasm factor for Democrats is worth 7 or 8 points, and sometimes more,” he said

Quipping that “If I was a House guy in an R+10 or less seat I’d be getting on the phone and raising money and putting a sign on my dog.”

We were once advised two things in our youth: first get the money, and second, get the money, and more GOP money is urgently needed, as the Dems are forcing them to fight on multiple fronts.

“Republicans are expected to hold a financial advantage in the fall campaign over all, the party is unlikely to be able to fund similarly expensive rescue missions in dozens of vulnerable districts — many of which have more forbidding demographics than the Ohio seat.”

This was just the tip of the iceberg, since “The Ohio results were not the only ominous signal for Republicans on Tuesday night. The party’s suburban slump showed up in districts far beyond Ohio.

In Washington State, where candidates from all parties compete in nonpartisan open-primary elections, Republican candidates posted limp results in three congressional districts, including an open seat in the Seattle suburbs and the seat in Eastern Washington held by Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a member of the Republicans’ leadership team in the House.

Among the seats that Republicans see slipping out of reach are those held by Representatives Rod Blum of Iowa and Jason Lewis of Minnesota, along with more than half a dozen open seats currently held by Republicans in New Jersey, Florida, Pennsylvania and Arizona.”

The skies seem cloudy, since “Every white, suburban district in the country will be a swing district in November, that’s the takeaway” from the Ohio election, said Representative Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican who is being targeted by Democrats.

Taking it even further and moving Trump from the educated and affluent suburbs that are rock-ribbed Republicans can only go far.

The New Yorker recently noted that “Evidently, the thinking is to use Trump to boost turnout in areas where he is popular, but to keep him away from latte-sipping Republicans in the ’burbs. This may sound like a reasonable idea, but it’s impractical. There’s no keeping him away from anywhere. Whenever he says or does anything, he dominates the media agenda nationwide. . .  It’s fanciful to imagine that he could spend September and October whipping up his diehard supporters at rallies in places such as Charleston, West Virginia, and Bismarck, North Dakota, without entering the consciousness of Republican voters in the areas surrounding Chicago, Columbus, and Philadelphia.”

In another closely watched contest CBS News on the gubernatorial race in Kansas, said, “Kansas Secretary of State and Trump ally Kris Kobach is hoping to defeat incumbent Gov. Jeff Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

But with 87 percent reporting at 1 a.m. Wednesday, the race was too close to call. The two remained deadlocked with Kobach leading Colyer by under two hundred votes. That race may not be called for days.

If there is a recount, Kobach, as secretary of state, would oversee it unless he recused himself. He has not offered to do so, and in Topeka Wednesday, he suggested that he does not plan to step away from overseeing any recount. "The recount thing is done on a county level, so the secretary of state does not actually participate directly in the recount," he said, according to the Kansas City Star.

That has changed, and on Thursday night he said that he would recuse himself from the vote-counting process. Kobach told CNN Thursday night that he would be "happy to recuse" himself and would make a formal announcement Friday according to NPR.org.

“As of Thursday night Kobach leads Colyer by 121 votes, out of about 311,000 ballots cast in Tuesday's Republican gubernatorial primary, according to an Associated Press count.

“Colyer sent a letter earlier Thursday accusing Kobach's office of "giving advice to county election officials" and "making public statements" that are "inconsistent with Kansas law and may serve to suppress the vote in the ongoing Kansas primary election process.

Colyer requested Kobach recuse himself and appoint Kansas' attorney general Derek Schmidt to take his place in the process. As secretary of state, Kobach is the head elections official in Kansas.”

Less than 90 days to go, and this midterm election may prove if not to be a photo finish, one for the record books. Stay tuned.
 

July Jobs report takes a dip with a strong forecast

Those looking for a dramatic change in the July Jobs Report were in for a surprise, not only was the figure of 157,000 jobs, less than the 190,000 predicted, but the banner, or what we prefer to label it, the marquee rate, dimmed slightly to 3.9 percent, something that perhaps, was another surprise.

Most observers, economists and analysts were still happy with it, since it showed a strong recovery from the Great Recession, and a remarkable resilience to continue that upward pattern.

Reassuringly, it was reported  that “Despite the lower-than-expected jobs gains, the labor market produced 59,000 more jobs than previously reported in May and June. Employers added 268,000 jobs in May and 248,000 in June, said The Hill.

"Job growth slowed a bit in July to 157,000, but that followed two straight months of very strong gains, and the job market is in great shape in the middle of 2018," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC.”

With the customary revisions, “job gains have averaged 224,000 a month over the past three months, a sign of continued strength,” they noted.

Despite steady growth expected to last through 2019, there are still concerns about employers being able to hire qualified workers, which we highlighted last month, and that some observers have called to lower some standards, up to an including those that might have previous marijuana related offenses.

Opinions vary as to why, but, for some, there is  the lack of technical degrees, or those with S.T.E.M. basics could be holding back the rate of hire, coupled with flat wages, which showed no growth in July, averaging, still, at 2.7 percent.

The Hill also said, that “some economists are forecasting that the jobless rate could eventually hit a historic low in the mid-3 percent range.

"The unemployment rate will fall to about 3.5 percent by the beginning of next year, although job growth will slow somewhat as businesses find it more and more difficult to hire," Faucher said. 

The Federal Reserve is predicted to raise interest rates “at its next meeting in September to 2.25 percent from 2 percent, in an effort to keep the labor market from reaching a boiling point.”

One bright spot is those least educated workers are seeing a much higher rate of success in the employment lines.

“The unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma fell to 5.1 percent in July, the Labor Department reported Friday, the lowest since the government began collecting data on such workers in 1992. At the economy’s nadir in the summer of 2009, the unemployment rate for high school dropouts hit 15.6 percent, more than three times the peak unemployment rate for college graduates,” reported The New York Times.

There was cause for concern from the academies. For example, “High school dropouts make up 7.2 percent of the labor force, and some experts doubted they and other low-skilled workers would ever fully recover from the effects of the recession, said Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan.

“As economists, we worried these workers would be shut out forever,” she said. “But the long duration of the recovery has pulled them back in. As the economy adds more jobs, employers have had to dig a little deeper.”

Another possibility is that non-compete clauses keep wages down, and in some instances hourly wages are 4 percent lower "in states that enforce non-compete than those that do not," noted The Economist, in mid-May.

By definition they ware used to keep departing employees "walking out of the door with valuable know-how, or poaching supplies and customers when they move jobs."

Surprisingly, one in five Americans "are subject to them and nearly two-fifths have had to sign one at some point, as have about 15% of low wage workers and a similar share of employees without university degrees," they continued.

Less than half of them, however, have any "access to trade secrets." And, most importantly, they are often used in low-wage jobs; Jimmy John's sandwich shops used to use them for their restaurant workers and delivery drivers but were forced to stop in 2016 "at the behest of the New York attorney general's office, which said that these agreements "limit mobility and opportunity for vulnerable workers and bully them into staying with the threat of being sued."

What's more is that, according to a University of Maryland study, those "presented with non-competes after they have accepted new job earn on average 10% less than those who know it will be part of the deal in advance, when they are still in a position to negotiate."

In other measurements the Labor Department’s “broadest measure of unemployment, which includes workers forced to take part-time jobs because full-time positions are unavailable, fell to 7.5 percent in July, the lowest since 2001.”

As the Times noted, “All this has translated into better economic opportunities for workers without a college degree, who account for a majority of the workforce. It is a contingent that was championed by Mr. Trump during his presidential campaign, and one that both parties want to appeal to in the midterm elections in November.”

The Times, in their cheerful assessment, said, “The headlines about President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and a widening trade war with China seem to have done little to put a damper on hiring. The manufacturing sector, which is particularly sensitive to exports, was robust, adding 37,000 jobs.”

At the White House, President Trump “took a victory lap after the new growth figure was released, saying in a speech at the White House that the country is growing "at the amazing rate" and that "we're on track to hit the highest annual average growth rate in over 13 years." 

It’s not a secret that “Republicans are banking on a streak of good economic news to carry them in to the November midterm elections. The booming economy is the base of the GOP's message to hold their congressional majority,” against a predicted blue wave that might have the Democrats win a majority in the House.

“But some GOP lawmakers and business groups are worried that Trump's decision to levy hefty tariffs on close U.S. allies and China will erase any gains from the tax and regulatory cuts,” a serious concern that will refute any plank that will stay the course for the GOP, and their hold as the majority party.

The president is considering raising the tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent from an initial proposal of 10 percent, “a plan quickly rebuked by a wide range of business groups from retailers to technology firms.”

In what to all appearances seems an escalating trade war, “The Chinese government said on Friday that Beijing will move forward with tariffs of 5 percent to 25 percent on $60 billion of U.S. imports "to guard its interests" if the U.S. follows through with its threats of more duties on its imports here.”

A case in point is that “Canada, Mexico and the 28-nation European Union have all imposed billions in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods over Trump's tariffs on steel, aluminum and other goods,” giving credence to the belief to his critics, that the his administration, has the unique ability to overcompensate in one area, while doing damage in another.

In response the president says this is because the U.S. has been treated so badly as a trading partner.

“A separate report on Friday showed that the nation's trade deficit rose to $46.3 billion in June, up $3.2 billion from $43.2 billion in May,” said the Commerce department.

Despite that, manufacturers added 37,000 jobs in July, with construction adding 19,000, bringing the industry total to 308,000 jobs over the year, a figure that many are lauding.

Health care employment rose 34,000 and professional and business services hired 51,000 in July, for a total of 518,000 new jobs created in the past year.

Updated 12 August 2018 at 4:50 p.m. (CSDT)

Dems odds in midterm elections seems strong

U.S. Capitol

In less than 100 days, the U.S. Congressional midterm elections will be held - Nov. 6, to be exact - and the that date is one that both the White House, and the Republicans, and especially the Democrats, are counting on to either stay the course, or change the leadership, and by default Congressional partisan behavior. While those who identify as being anti-Trump have grown by leaps and bounds, President Trump has also taken to increasing his political rallies, and tweets, to his gain, or has he?

In a time honored tradition in American politics, this event has shown to be one that takes the temperature of the party, and person, in power; and, the results can be startling, often to the extreme, as was seen with the 63 percent change in the House of Representatives in the Obama administration, with voters alternatively confused, or angered by the Affordable Care Act, known colloquially as Obama Care.

Paling, but no less significant was the 31 percent and historic change under George W. Bush; but November’s outcome also will be revelatory, as the country has seen the reshaping of the Republican party, by Trump, as he has radicalized the once mainstream conservative party; and while it was won him praise by that steadfast 36 percent of supporters, it also shows a dip in his overall approval ratings of 40 percent, a not insignificant number, as a fulcrum for some anxious forecasting.

Debate has centered in one area: the infamous and dangerous comments Trump made, next to a smiling Russian President Vladimir Putin, as he heard the U.S. leader trample the American intelligence community which identified Russia as electronically penetrating private computer systems, and social media sites, in supporting Trump against Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

For the president to counter a blue wave, he has to demonstrate to the American electorate, that under his watch, the country has improved. While, some observers and politicos say he can do that, and on many fronts, he can, but to others his often frequent rampages against members of Congress, and not to mention foreign leaders he has undermined the effort, say many of his most ardent supporters.

The stock market has picked up significantly since his election, he has legions of supporters championing his tax plan, as fractured as the individual gains may be, and seeing the near full employment figure of 4 percent, the joy emanating from the White House, has been undermined by an increase in tariffs which has alienated a strong part of his base, farmers, who overwhelmingly say that the imported steel has hurt their profits through greater cost of vital equipment, made of steel; and foremost significant chunks of a profitable export business to China, to whet their appetite for parts of the pig that are not popular in the U.S. market.

Hillary Clinton 

 For the Democrats with a huge base of Trump haters, the temptation is to take that ball and run with it, but this was the same play that Hillary Clinton used in the 2016 election, which led to one, if not the most humiliating defeats in American politics, by someone who was expected to win hands down.

In response, some strategists are saying that it is vital that the Dems stake out issues, as opposed to “hate Trump rhetoric.”  And, there is significant support for this view: “Our candidates are not going to lead with talking about Trump,” said Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D). “They’re going to lead by talking about economic growth and improving education. You don’t have to mention Trump very much,” reported The Hill.

Still, other critics say, that the change will take some coaxing -- yet others insist that there is not. On the table for swinging the conversation to issues are: the potential loss of insurance coverage for those with pre-existing conditions (after the draconian changes to the ACA, by the GOP) and public schools whose per pupil funding in inequitable areas, as in Chicago, before recent legislation; not to mention school safety after the Parkland massacres and a general tilt towards undermining public education by Betsy DeVos.

Handling Trump seems to be an impossible task, and while many have tried, such as Chief of Staff, Gen. John Kelly, Trump continues on a mad Twitter rage against respected world leaders, and allies, such as German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and British Prime Minister Theresa May; undermining his position, if not his base.

“The economy and tax reform isn’t an abstract issue like Russia,” said Ryan Williams, a New Hampshire Republican operative who advised Mitt Romney. “I wish the president would talk every day about the economy and tax reform instead of other things he talks about. It distracts from the success story.”

Cries of “fake news” and describing the special investigation of Bob Mueller as a “witch hunt” that adds only further to the burden of some Republicans facing a tough battle to retain their seats. And, some don’t want to be associated with talks of disbanding Immigrations and Customs Enforcement, presidential impeachment, fearing political fallout.

What remains is a numbers game, and “Democrats have a clear edge over Republicans in voter enthusiasm. A June survey from the Pew Research Center showed Democratic voters were five points more likely than Republicans to say they were more excited to vote this year than in previous midterms, mirroring other surveys that show Democratic enthusiasm at higher levels than the GOP.”

“But their edge is not as significant as the winning party’s advantage in the last two major wave elections, in 2010 and 2006. Eight years ago, Republicans held a 15-point enthusiasm edge, and they picked up 63 Democratic-held seats in former President Obama’s first midterm election.
 
Four years before that, Democrats had a 32-point enthusiasm gap, and the party picked up 30 seats.
 
“Democrats are angry, and that’s not changing in the next 100 days,” said Ron Klain, a Democratic strategist and former chief of staff to Vice Presidents Joe Biden and Al Gore. “The unknown is whether that anger turns into a huge turnout.”

Go deep, is an age-old football plea, and again, The Hill, is saying: “In 2014, when Democrats led the generic ballot in both CNN and NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys by only slim margins, Republicans ended up winning 13 Democratic-held seats. The last time Democrats gained significantly, in 2006, the party held a 15-point advantage in both surveys.
 
By contrast, Republicans enjoyed a generic ballot advantage of between two and six points in late October 2010, according to CNN and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls, but that narrow edge still resulted in the 63-seat gain.”

On the forefront, is the growing corps of female candidates, that as we have seen, has give significant victories in a Georgia primary,  and a special election in Alabama, and the latter supported by a legion of tightly organized black female voters.

Vox.com recently reported that “A prominent elections forecaster just tilted predictions in eight key House races away from male Republican candidates toward female Democratic contenders, seven of whom are challenging incumbent men. It’s another sign that 2018 could be a big year for women in politics, particularly Democratic women.”

“Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved 17 races that he tracks from strongly favoring Republicans closer toward Democrats.

Only one of the 17 seats is currently held by a woman. Two more Republican women, facing male Democratic challengers, are running for seats left open by congressmen who retired. In all, 12 races include a female candidate. Eight of the 17 races moved away from a likely Republican male winner toward a Democratic woman.”

Stacey Abrams

Running is not winning, “But in the 2018 primaries, female candidates have been outperforming their male counterparts, multiple analyses have found. More than 40 percent of Democratic nominees for the US House of Representatives so far are women, according to an NBC News analysis. Meanwhile, fewer than 10 percent of Republican nominees are women, NBC found.”

“Put another way, Democratic female candidates are over performing by about 15 percent in primaries, the Cook Political Report found. In other words, female candidates in 2018 are more likely to defeat male candidates than the other way around, they summarized.

“For all the ups and downs of polling, the reality is Democrats around the country continue to over-perform, often significantly, in special elections. Moreover, we’ve seen stronger than average turnout in primaries,” said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic consultant.

Less sanguine are those that are not quite ready to concede to the Democrats, at least as this point.

“Democrats may not be ahead right now in enough races to win” the House, said Tom Davis, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “The Democrats aren’t winning, but they’ve moved these things to single-digit races.”

One thing that the Dems will have to do to score those 25 seats in the House is to get out the vote, to at least hit 32 points.

The next few weeks will be critical for both sides, but especially the Democrats, as they face many of their voters who see a midterm elections as “off year” and unimportant, preferring to only vote in presidential elections.