Thursday, August 27, 2015

Hillary Clinton: Beyond the emails

Hillary Clinton has a resume that is impressive by any standard: first lady of Arkansas, where she developed her emphasis on education and families; first lady of the United States where she took those skills and enlarged them onto a world stage, developing a reputation as hard-working, capable and even tough, but where she also came into her own; weathered the political storms of her zeal to reform health care, and handle with grace the Lewinsky scandal that threatened not only her marriage, and image, but also the presidency.  


Next came her run as a candidate for the presidency, and where many assumed that she would win - we even heard comments, such as “Well, she was really the president anyway,” or “She knows how to get things done, because she already did them.” The unexpected upset  came from a junior senator from Illinois, Barack Obama. The defeat was notable, where she commanded the podium, when accepting defeat, and  the reality that the numbers were just not there to make her the nominee.


Then the glorious coda as Secretary of State, in the Obama administration, where she re-defined shuttle diplomacy and was warmly greeted, and seen as an international celebrity,one that had “Made in America,” stamped all over her, but who also was able to transcend geographic boundaries. And, now she runs again, rebranded as the defender of the middle class, (she tends to love crusades) and a populist hero with images almost re-cast from “Our Town,” and with entourage in tow, she traverses Middle America, as easily as she did the borders of Western Europe.


And, then, the recent poll drop after it was revealed that she had a private email server, installed in her New York state home. from 2009 to 2013, that she used, not only for private matters, such as the planning of her daughter’s wedding, but where she also, on occasion, used it for communication as US Secretary of State. When this was revealed, her critics, not all of them Republicans, had a field day, questioning her judgement. This has continued unabated.


Clinton at first denied that there was anything untoward and even said, “I did not send classified material,” but later she would be forced to release copies of emails, under a federal court order, that State, then later her staff, agreed to turn over the server itself for examination, totalling 60,000; of which some 305 might be considered to contain classified information. The results have been mixed, with some saying that there were confidential exchanges that should have been on the government account that she was given, and not her own. And, recent reports indicate that the server was maintained by a relative startup, in a laidback office in Denver, Colorado.


For many the question of judgment crops up again, and while no one wants to recall the lengthy and expensive Whitewater investigation, of yesteryear, there seems to be no evidence of malfeasance, just bad judgement, pure and simple. But,  considering that unrehearsed move, maybe unresearched, might well damage her standings in the polls, and her path to the Oval Office, that many have seen as inevitable.


Some have wondered whether this was a case of overkill, from a woman that has been battered and bruised by the media, who were relentless in the pursuit and attack of a vulnerable woman, but fortunately did not end tragically like that of her friend, the late Princess Diana. It also speaks reams to the way the world reacts to powerful and symbolic women, like she and Diana. But, that is another discussion.


For Clinton, the dichotomy is that of a whip smart woman, educated at our best schools, and universities, nourished in the Christian tradition, whose heart seems to be built on that resulting faith, but whose Achilles heel seems to be that she doesn’t always think things through, or at the least, seek the advice of others, with the result that she has to later waste precious time on damage control, and detract from her message. Much like her Whitewater investments - which in hindsight can be blamed on a simple desire to make some money and help out old friends, all quite innocent. But, without stepping back to assess the consequences before that decision was made.


Can this be blamed on a baby boomer’s undernourished understanding of technology, or is it the developed paranoia of a woman who had been, too long, on the receiving end of attack journalism. Whatever the case, questions remain, even this early out, if this lack of forethought could have an adverse effect on the newly minted President Clinton, in her own administration.


Lately her staff has stepped up the control efforts to contain the damage, but as one of them was observed as saying, in brief, at least, this is better handled in August of 2015, than in August 2016.

The message for Hillary is to stand back and see what might be the laws of unintended consequences, for her actions, now and later, so that when “Hail to the Chief” is played in January 2017, it ain’t Donald Trump wearing the pantsuit.

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Chicago schools budget might force another teachers strike while Emanuel worries



Monday’s announcement of the Chicago Public Schools 2015-16 budget brought more than just the requisite accounting; it also brought an avalanche of criticism of teachers, their union, and their supposed overweening power by Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner, plus the reality of increased taxes, and lay offs, both in the classroom and the executive suite.

The $5.7 billion operating budget, relies heavily on $480 million dollars of state funds, not guaranteed, and which Rauner says he will only give if there are changes in collective bargaining - in fact in a recent press conference he said, “The power of the teachers union has been overwhelming. Chicago has given and given and given. It’s created a financial crisis that the Chicago schools face now,” and that the budget showed the need for change, especially the “union-weakening provisions” as they were termed by the Chicago Tribune.

Adding fuel to the fire is a $676 million payment for teacher pensions due at the end of the school year. Branded as unsustainable by school leaders, also in the budget “are also numerous fiscal wild cards in the mix, including budget adjustments,” that might be used if there is agreement with the Chicago Teachers Union on a new contract noted the Chicago Sun-Times in their budget analysis.

If the $480 million does not materialize then there would be deeper classroom cuts, thousands of teacher layoffs, and resulting in increased class sizes, although historically laid off teachers would find employment at other schools. At present there will be 479 scheduled teacher layoffs due to enrollment and budget cuts, and taxpayers will pay more property taxes to help fill the gap; for example the Sun-Times suggested that for a home worth $250,000, the owner would have to pony up an additional $19 more to the tax payment.

$137 million is to come from tax increment funding, a budgetary maneuver, where taxes are frozen for a designated neighborhood, and the proceeds designed to help low income areas; but it has faced controversy for years, because the monies, in many instances have been used to finance such upscale enterprises as the posh French Market, several years ago.

Local Chicago Reader columnist Ben Joravsky has been deriding the misdirection of the program for years and said in a recent column, after Barbara Flynn Currie, a close ally of Democratic Speaker of the House Michael Madigan, was dispatched to the Chicago City Council after Mayor Rahm Emanuel wanted a status report on his plea for more state aid, reported that she said, “Many wonder whether Chicago is in fact over-TIFed, with negative consequences for school budgets.”

Emanuel’s response was to extend the TIF districts, until 2034, for more money, “none of it guaranteed to help the schools,” Joravsky said, but with no public intention of how much he expects, or how he intended to spend it. But, if Monday’s announcement is accurate, then the amount is a drop in the bucket to what has been collected.

The new budget also includes a cut of $200 million in spending cuts, and $1 million in the office of the CEO for CPS, Forrest Claypool, who is hoping that the state government - ergo Rauner - agrees to a bail-out. But, the latter was adamant when he said: “We believe the right answer is to empower: The people of Chicago, the voters of Chicago, the mayor of Chicago, the school board of the Chicago Public Schools should be enabled to decide what gets collectively bargained and what doesn’t so they don’t end up with the teachers union having dictatorial powers, in effect and causing the financial duress that Chicago public schools are facing right now.”

CTU president Karen Lewis has made a number of statements, including an appearance on local CBS radio affiliate WBBM, Sunday, where she noted that no one had taken a look at alternative funding, and that the proposal to make teachers pay more for their pensions is a refutation of an earlier negotiated agreement, in lieu of a pay cut and now, should be phased in as a compromise, if at all.. She also suggested, in later remarks, that another strike was not welcome, but would be considered if necessary, deeming the proposed change “srikeworthy.”

In a news conference, Lewis was asked if there might be another strike, based on the new request for greater teacher pension contribution, in reality a pay cut, she responded, “If they persist on a 7 percent, all at once like a pay cut - a 7 percent pay cut - I don’t have to call for a strike. I think that our members will do that themselves “

Many observers have noted that this is exactly what is intended by Rauner’s remarks and Emanuel’s frustration - an effort to force the issue with the teachers, and as part of the national Republican gubernatorial efforts, to bust a teachers union, especially in the country’s third largest school system, this would be a pyrrhic victory for Emanuel and a total one for Rauner.

Chicago Sun-Times columnist Mark Brown also noted on Monday, that “What really seems to have Rauner excited, though, is the possibility that Chicago Democrats, led by Mayor Rahm Emanuel, may be ready and willing to force this change on the teachers by law if they won’t go along willingly.” As Brown says Emanuel, needing the money from Rauner, is in no position to push back, and also helps the governor do the same to all Illinois school unions; but he also said that the current pension pay arrangement is more typical, in the state, than Claypool would lead us to believe.

In all of these budgetary conversations one thread is certain: Emanuel and CPS need the money, Lewis and the CTU stand in the way of negotiations with Rauner, and Emanuel will do whatever he can to get the funds, and Lewis’s only tool is another strike.

In a late development Wednesday Claypool announced that CPS will no longer pick up the pension of central office staff, regional and non-union employees, for a savings of $11.1 million. The reduction is to be phased in over a three year period, with 2 percent this year, then another 2 percent the next, and finally 3 percent the year after that.

Lewis who made an appearance on the local PBS affiliate, WTTW, on ‘Chicago Tonight” said that she was supportive, if her members were, but, in the absence of hard numbers, it was “nebulous right now, it’s out there somewhere.”