What Manchin doesn't want, Biden can't get

Sen. Joe Manchin’s behavior around the Build Back Better bill makes him seem like the boyfriend that you can’t live with, or without. Just a week before Christmas he played Scrooge and denied President Biden a vote on his signature piece of social legislation, many of which contain pieces that Democrats have wanted for decades, and all of it hinging on the budget reconciliation process, in other words consensus, that the Democrats were forced to adopt since no Republicans would join them on this historical reform bill.

Now in the face of the upcoming midterms and low poll ratings for the president, Biden is forced to find some type of working relationship to salvage his presidency and to avert a possible departure of Manchin to the Republican party, leaving the slim majority the Dems have in the Senate fractured.

Yet as the old saying goes, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.”

This is an unenviable position and after seeing companion pieces like the voting rights bill dormant, the president also faces losing a key constituency, Black voters, that helped propel him to office. 

For progressives, like Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) who have given up so much, asking for more cuts risks losing the progressive wing that Biden needs for further legislation.

Some accused them, and also White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, of saying too much when they collectively accused the West Virginia senator of negotiating in bad faith and betraying the president, but, yet this is exactly what he did, and there is no amount of sugar coating that will change it.

Putting it mildly, to say the least, and using an old southern (G rated) expression he “messed” with the president; and, seemingly to all ears, had no intention of signing the bill.

Whether it was child tax credit extension, preschool advancements, or paid family leave it was always “no”, say Capitol Hill observers.

Attempts at wooing Manchin with a watered down bill will produce just that, a watered down bill.  And his grandstanding. That can’t be taken to the polls.

With Congress as well as the president in their home states celebrating the holidays, the post holiday buzz is how to advance ahead, and that is a road ahead that no one wants to imagine, but must be done.

Glancing into the rear view mirror, the president and voters are remembering the withdrawal from Afghanistan where right wing voters, one in particular, told us that “Biden deserves a bullet in his head for leaving all that equipment behind.”

Moving behind that dangerous rhetoric, and Jan. 6th aside, there was also the optics of Border Patrol whipping Haitian immigrants in the Rio Grande, alienating Black congressional leadership; some in the Beltway see the president riding for a fall.

A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last Monday said that 41 percent of Americans approve of his job, with 55 percent disapproving.

That old curmudgeon Sen. Lindsay Graham, said on FOX news,’I think Build Back Better is dead forever, and let me tell you why: because Joe Manchin has said he’s not going to vote for a bill  that will add to the deficit.”

Jayapal has noted that “I am sure that the conversation about legislation will continue, and we will continue to be involved in that. But, no one should think that we are going to be satisfied with an even smaller package that leaves people behind or refuses to tackle critical issues like climate change.”

And, as a final coda, The Hill reported that progressives “watched some of their biggest priorities stall out.”

Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, according to The Hill has proposed an idea that would cobble together a few key pieces such as prescription drugs, a ramped up Obamacare, clean energy and a “beefed up child tax credit”, and using the same revenue stream that his Senate Finance Committee, of which he is chair, from the same legislation earlier proposed.

Getting approval from Manchin might be like getting blood from a turnip, and after most of the year trying to woo him, it’s possible that the Democrats could push Manchin to the GOP where he seems most at home, and persuade a switch from the GOP to make this all come together.

He has also promoted overhauling the 2017 Tax Code, an effort that could simply mire the Dems in a long slog, that could reach nothing, but endless detail, and hot air; a clever and disingenuous move by Manchin.

Majority leader, Chuck Schumer has said that he wants to take a floor vote, that has surprised some observers, but would flush out Manchin’s true intent, on record, for as he has said, “I can't guarantee anything upfront, just vote, you’ll find out where I am.”

November Jobs Report: on a see saw

 

For all of those who are still scratching their heads over last Friday’s Jobs Report, from the Labor Dept. the news of only 210,000 jobs, when 500,000 were expected, might see a revision next month to temper their spirits.

It’s still a market for job seekers as they continue to reevaluate their future roles, and especially for low income workers who have spent countless hours on their feet for low wages, which is probably why retail jobs sunk to 28,000, and in an especially dangerous era for Covid concerns, working with the uncertainty of vaccine status among coworkers and customers makes for a worrisome time.

Add the danger of being shot, or conked over the head, by marauding gangs stealing luxury goods to be sold on the internet’s  black market, and the die is cast.

The good news is that the labor force participation has risen to 61.8 percent, a reflection perhaps of those who have managed to gain, thanks in part to the extended unemployment benefits to find better jobs at better job conditions, and at a better rate that helped to push up hourly wages by 0.3 percent; seen especially for lower income workers.

“To me, the most important question in the economy going forward is: Will companies improve jobs enough to entice people back into employment, and to face those higher risks?” said Aaron Sojourner, a professor at the University of Minnesota and a former economist at the Council of Economic Advisers for the previous two administrations, reported The New York Times.

While no one wanted to dance in the streets at the dismal report, President Biden tried to put a better spin on it and attributing the higher wage participation and wage increase to his Build Back Better plan, and at the White House he said, “he hailed the drop in the unemployment rate as a vindication of his administration’s policies — while acknowledging the mixed signals in the jobs report, according to the TImes, but added “Our economy is markedly stronger,” . . .  and went on to say: “It’s not enough to know that we’re making progress. You need to see it and feel it in your own lives — around the kitchen table, in your checkbooks.”

“This is a miserable jobs report, there’s no spinning it any other way,” said Rep. Kevin Brady to The Hill.

Some saw light at the end of the tunnel:a  slight uptick in women’s employment, overall, and that of Hispanics, have given some rise to optimism, but it’s still too early to see this as a true indicator of note.

Fears of the new variant Omicron are also not present in the report taken ahead of the detection by South African virologists, so the December report will be able to add to concerns.

Meanwhile pressure is up on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to  intervene on inflation, but he, along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, feel that these figures will eventually dissipate; but others disagree, but as we’ve noted there is little that the federal government can do, except wait and see, say most economists.

The Times noted the discrepancy between the two reporting methods and that the household with its smaller sample might be the culprit: Part of the puzzle in the data released on Friday arose because the Labor Department report is based on two surveys, one polling households and the other recording hiring among employers.

“For about the past half-year, the survey of households had been showing significantly weaker job growth than its sister survey — until last month, when it was much stronger. It showed overall employment, for example, growing by 1.1 million, seasonally adjusted.”

They added, “Economists generally put more trust in the employer survey, which has a much larger sample size. So the recent pattern suggests that the household survey had been undercounting employment and, in effect, caught up in November.”

This is not always the case, and some economists feel that the household survey is more accurate, despite its size because of the direct nature of the methodology, but then failure is an orphan, while success has many fathers. 

“Average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory workers were up 8 cents in November, to $31.03, and are 4.8 percent higher than a year ago, according to the report on Friday.”

Wages, while up, are only part of the challenge in hiring, say many employers and it seems to be a steady progress to other areas: increasing paid time off (PTO), increasing employer contribution to health care, among others.

Wage growth, however, has not kept up with high cost of living, especially in urban areas, such as Chicago, Los Angeles and New York where housing costs are high, and going higher, and some sources have reported that even cities outside of those areas are seeing a struggle to stay afloat, especially for families; middle class as well as working class.

In consideration, the Times acknowledged that, “The latest University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment pointed to “the growing belief among consumers that no effective policies have yet been developed to reduce the damage from surging inflation.”

Biden White House faces midtern worries

 

It’s less than a year away, but the midterm elections in November of 2022 are looming large for the Biden Administration, and there are dire predictions that he will have to take a substantial hit on his handling of the economy with the burgeoning levels of inflation, the lingering criticism of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the handling of Haitian immigrants, and that he won’t have Nancy Pelosi to have his back as Speaker of the House if the Dems are defeated.

Adding to the mix are concerns that he won’t run again, due to his age; despite a clean bill of health, as the oldest US first term president. If he decided against a second term, some are speculating that Vice President Harris has not been adequately prepared as a successor, and some, less than fans, are putting Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, as the candidate in 2024.

We’ll take a look at some of the more pressing concerns topping the list of concerns is gerrymandering by the Republican party to affect gains, even in areas where they are in the minority. And, while the act of congressional district restructuring has been favored by both parties, what is at stake is the slim Democratic majority in the House, foremost, as well as the Senate, where Harris is the tiebreaker.

Gerrymandering taking center stage

Restructuring voter behavior has taken center stage in the GOP and Texas Gov. Greg Abbot at the end of October seemed to lead the charge, shadowing the move to practically outlaw abortions in Texas, despite the fact that many voters do not want an outright ban.

Bret Jaspers of KERA in a spot on NPR’s Morning Edition, interviewed Bob Stein a professor at Rice University, who noted, among others present, that without competitive district races, the die is cast against an effort by opposing parties.

He said that, “A February poll from UT Austin and the Texas Tribune showed only 13% of Texans think abortions should never be permitted.” as an example of Republican control that affects legislation.

Economy matters

Moving to the economy, the Biden White House has struggled to stay on message, even after inheriting a mess from the Trump administration, and has fumbled with vaccination deadlines that were not met, and only lately reached their 70 percent mark where most Americans had  at least one vaccine jab.

With an economy that sputtered and started with fits and frustration, after the lockdown, the US has received the fastest recovery in ages, but second to China, not first, as the president recently noted.

There are still 4 million jobs less than when the Covid pandemic began, and many women, in the absence of child care have left the workforce to care for children, and, or aging parents, creating a yawning gap in the workforce that has lowered the rate of workforce participation, as shown in the October Jobs Report, from the Labor Department.

Reconciling to the public that those 10 million jobs for four consecutive months, contrasted with 7.5 million before the pandemic makes for hard sledding for the White House.

Record numbers of Americans are quitting jobs have added to the vacuum, where many have begun to reevaluate jobs that were physically demanding and required long hours, many of whom also were working shoulder to shoulder and feared catching the virus.

Bottlenecks, Build Backs and Inflation

Going from bad to worse is the bottleneck of supply shortages due to shuttered factories abroad (from fear of Covid) further hampered by lack of warehouses, staff, drivers and ports that have had long waits for ships to dock. And, while Biden has done all that he can do to keep ports open, and Transportation secretary Buttigieg has said that wants to make trucking more attractive, the long hours that they pull away from their families can only go so far.

Some recent news indicates that port delays are lessening and that the dearth of semiconductors has also increased, noted General Motors, “to keep all of its North American production plants running;” welcome news in early November.

As economists have pointed out, there is little the White House can do to make dramatic changes.

Next up is inflation that Biden’s critics are having a field day with, and blaming the near $2 trillion proposed social spending bill as contributing to it and while any government expenditures threaten inflation, the figures from the Congressional Budget Office and the White House differ.

The Congressional Budget Office has said that the plan, better known as the Build Back Better plan will increase the deficit by $367 billion over 10 years, but the White House says that it will pay for itself, and helped by greater IRS reinforcement of tax evaders, to the tune of $400 billion, but the CBO replied by saying that effort would only yield a net $127 billion benefit.

Janet Yellen, Treasury secretary states the opposite and that the bill will pay for itself.

According to The Hill, “The consumer price index, which tracks inflation for a range of staple goods and services, rose 0.9 percent last month and 6.2 percent in the 12 months leading into October, the highest annual inflation rate since October 1990.”

The fear is that the Republicans can drive this issue, and they quote a Democratic donor that said, “the White House needs to continue to get in front of the issue.”

For consumers there is anger and that any gains they receive in wages and sign on bonuses are eaten up by higher costs, topped by higher housing costs. 

This is especially true for low income families, and as Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said, “.. . to cover their commuting costs, grocery bills and rents are eating into the jump they have seen in wages.”

Recent polls have dipped to 42 percent for Biden and many observers are attributing this to anger about inflation.

Swonk added that “Inflation is sizzling and will likely get hotter before it cools.”

Feuding Democrats

Perhaps providing no greater measure of waning voter confidence was the family fight among Democrats ,with progressives decrying cuts to “cherished objectives,” according to the Hill’s coverage, with the social spending plan, but also airing the family dirty linen for all to see seemed more like a House divided, than party unity, and the grandstanding by West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin gave truth to the sight that the fight was still there.

Now with House passage, the role of the Senate makes all wonder, but voter disenfranchisement is still present, and Democrats need to show “that voters can feel the benefits, or at least know  those benefits are coming,” before the midterm elections.

Virginia gubernatorial defeat and loss of morale

Equally ominous was the defeat of Terry McAuliffe for governorship of Virginia, and polls that had him leading, and GOP contender Glenn Youngkin trailing, badly. Of course polls can be wrong, dead wrong, (“Dewey defeats Truman” as a historical example) and even though the latter’s win was razor thin, a win is still a win.

The win was heartbreaking and soul shattering for Democrats, a party that had led in statewide races since 2009, and that Biden won in double digits, but it also holds a distinct irony since “history is on the side of the party not in power, because the Virginia election is one of the first chances for opponents of the sitting president to register their frustration.”.

Youngkin held Trump at arm's length distance and the Dems wanted to make the election about Trump, and the former’s strategy paid off, along with a handy wedge issue of the falsehood that Critical Race Theory is taught in elementary and high school’s, and an offhand remark by McAuliffe that the teachers should not be told what to teach was the final shaft.

The subject of suburban voters, especially women, as independent voters is now going to be a new epistle, and taking them as a monolithic block did not shatter the CRT myths, but did enough to scare voters, almost as much as the bathroom wars of a few years back, did the trick.

What didn't was the lack of focus by the Dems, not only in Virginia, but elsewhere, on state level elections and voter turnout, while many voters, including people of color, dismiss midterm elections as less valuable. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Vice-President Harris? A lost opportunity?

Adding to voter concern is the historic selection of a woman of color as his running mate and vice president, but whom many see, herself included, as often out of focus and his assignments, redolent of Biden’s own vice presidency to Barack Obama, but in a different time and a different place, they don’t work. 

An example is having Harris be a point person on immigration, an area ripe for failure and as the US has stumbled since the late 19th century, and beyond, trying to write policy amidst the vagaries of world wars, nativism and downright prejudice. In short, a great stumbling block for her to be attacked in a possible 2024 presidential race, especially for a prospective GOP challenger, such as former Vice President Mike Pence.

In the hothouse atmosphere of the White House where everyone is racing to singularize themselves, their boss and the press, Harris and her staff are at odds in an era far removed from California politics, and even from the more august senate, where those odds are now grist for 21st century social media.

As CNN pointed out in a lengthy piece, she often appears bland, and over-scripted; but under her own devices, such as the 30th anniversary of Rev. Al Sharpton’s National Action Network at Carnegie Hall, she displayed verve, and some targeted shots at Trump, his Big Lie and at Ron De Santis and his gubernatorial counterpart, Abbot, on their new state voting laws, as an extension of the Lie; in short she was, even by the standards of jaded New York politicos, a star..

Please Mr. President, sir, can we have some more?

Up, up and away with US Jobs Report for October

 Friday’s report form the US Dept. of Labor gave an unexpected rise of 531,000 nonfarm jobs to the country, in October, exceeding expectations of 431,000 and with an upward revision of the August and September reports sending a balloon into the sky after last month’s dismal report; and, joined by a decrease in the general unemployment rate to 4.6 percent, there was joy on Main Street as well as Wall Street.

While there's still a loss of 3.8 million jobs lost since the Covid pandemic hit America, nearly all economists were unanimous in not simply their joy, but also the feeling that the nation was well on the way to recovery.

There was a lot of good news, and according to The New York Times, was that “especially vulnerable sections like hospitality and retail, where workers are dealing face to face with customers,” made gains, even while fears of getting sick are still prevalent.

“This was a strong employment report that shows the resilience of the labor market recovery from the pandemic,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco, to the Times

In fact, amidst the joy, the reality is that this concentration causes many to worry, not just employers, but economists and academics alike who fear that this is an area that does not allow for sustaining not just a national economy, but a strong middle class.

Most employers, nevertheless, are still grappling with finding enough qualified workers, and many of those employed in the gain area of restaurants and hospitality are reevaluating, (as noted last month), their net worth, and are discerning if it is worth it to work long hours on their feet, rushing about, with little chance of advancement, and facing the rising costs of housing and food costs (which have shot up by 3%), and most importantly child care.

One group, in particular, that has faced this challenge are Black and Brown women, who make up a large share of the jobs in leisure and hospitality, and the current increase of 164,000 would have been even higher, had there been higher wages, and affordable child, or even elder care.

For women, the results for October showed only a modest gain of 180,000, as this group on the whole, women of color exempted, also faces the challenge of child care, something that was supposed to have been solved in September, with the expected increase to classroom learning, versus the pandemic driven remote. Yet, the patchwork of school openings and mask mandate protests, dimmed expectations.

Overall the October labor force participation rate was relatively flat at 61.6 percent with only a slight increase for those aged 25 to 54, peak working years for many. A fact that has heads shaking, but many feel is directly attributable to the virus, and a reluctance, if able to work, fear based decisions, for some, as they work shoulder to shoulder.

Some employers are giving enhanced benefits, transportation allowances, and varied schedules and that has worked well for one hotel in St. Louis, Mo. cited the Times.

This mix and match approach is valued by economists, especially Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who told the Times, “I, as an economist, predict that will be better for job matches and a better economy in the long run.”

Largely, the problem is still increasing vaccinations among Americans,especially in Republican dominated areas of the South, where vaccination efforts have been politicized, and angry mobs have fought against mask mandates, and vaccination for school personnel, and first responders, and has now spread to Northern cities, such as New York, and Chicago.

Somewhat heartening is the greater rate of vaccination, where approximately 70 percent of the US has received at least one shot, and the subsequent weakening of the virulent Delta Virus strain has given some the impetus to travel and, return in greater numbers to restaurant dining, a fact reflected is the notable increase in food and drinking establishments to 119,000.

Equally concerning is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis  said that the US economy saw growth of only 2.0 percent in the 3rd quarter, noted The Washington Post, in late October: “The coronavirus tore through unvaccinated communities during much of the July-through-September period measured in Thursday’s gross domestic product report, eviscerating economists’ expectations from earlier in the year of continued rapid growth near the 6.3 and 6.7 percent seen in the first two quarters of 2021.”

Recently the Commerce Dept. reported that the economy grew by 0.5 percent, in the same quarter, with both attributing the slowdown to the virus.

What is now abundantly clear, to many, is that resolving the US economy will take time, and patience with increased efforts to gain greater vaccination, above all, but, also further legislative solutions to the country's most pressing problems that have been further delineated, and exposed, as a direct result of the pandemic.

All of this is set against a backdrop of supply chain problems: backorders of parts, whole merchandise, a shortage of workers, and ships sitting at ports, waiting to dock. 

The conundrum is that for many Americans the enforced lockdowns swelled bank accounts, not only with cash unspent, but a round of stimulus checks that many families, facing uncertainty, salted away, and are now spending it. And, they are joined by those at home still clicking away at the goodies on their computer screens. 

Optimism stil reigns and the decrease in the variant is one reason, and also that there was some forethought, with the coming holiday season as some “Businesses were able to build up their inventories — or at least slow the supply-chain bleeding — ahead of the holiday season, despite continued logistical snarls. People may have to be flexible on the exact gifts they pick out for friends and family. But they’ll probably have options.”

Supply Chain bottleneck threaten US consumers

 

If you are just now hearing of supply chain bottlenecks then perhaps you were on a longer flight to outer space than the one that Jeff Bezos provided to Star Trek actor William Shatner.

With the upcoming winter holidays, gift givers are being advised to order, and shop, early so as not to disappoint their recipients; but, while Christmas and Hanukkah are fast approaching, the culprit is not Scrooge, but the closures of factories abroad, especially those in Asia, and Europe, all due to the Covid pandemic that forced them.

While John and Jane Q. Public often identifies Chinese imports with the local dollar store, the reality is far more complex with everything from computer chips to sneakers being imported from destinations as far flung as Bombay to Hong Kong.

Another unknown is that many well known products are either partially or completely made of foreign parts, or designed here, and made in those distant locales.

Adding to the mix is that during the mandated lockdowns, and store closures, many Americans turned on their laptops, smartphones, and desktops to order a myriad of things from breadmakers to home improvement items, and all manner of gizmos and gadgets, with the firm expectation that they would be delivered within two days.

What that increased demand did was to create pressure to deliver, and the resulting bottleneck has created a myriad or problems, many that seem insurmountable, and have created shortages key areas, new cars especially, since they contain those microchips that tell us not only how to get to our destinations, but also to avoid hitting our children’s tricycles inconveniently parked behind our minivans.

Getting goods from point to point has been complicated by the lack of truckers, especially long haulers to get the goods from the port, or warehouse, to our homes. This dearth of truckers has been keenly felt by our British cousins whose trucks have almost ground to a halt.

Labor, therefore, is vital to push ahead, but many experienced workers have retired, or feel the desire to do less punishing hours, and workloads; now almost doubled in some key areas.

There are now 4.3 million less workers than there were in February of 2020; and, the workforce shrank in September from 63.3 to 61.6. Luring them back is part and parcel of any increase in working hours, say many economists.

Transportation problems here have grown so bad that according to The New York TImes, “Home Depot, Costco, and Walmart have taken to chartering their own ships to move products across the Pacific Ocean.”

While that might seem to be good enough, waiting times at ports can exceed 10 days,, in some cases, to have enough workers to move the goods. And, this has extended to the same patterns of delays and closures, across the US, in warehouses, and railroad yards.

The twinned problems for consumers are not merely shortages of goods, but higher prices threatening to drain those Covid inspired cash reserves, and last week, “Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in September and 5.4 percent in the 12 months leading into it,” reported The Hill, citing figures from the Labor Department.

Riding on the heels of the increase was the effect on tightly budgeted household incomes in key areas, such as food, energy and housing costs. That lump of coal for naughty children’s Christmas stockings, might be needed to heat the humble hearth.

While President Biden “met with leaders from corporations, labor unions and trade associations,” on Wednesday, according to The Hill, and announced 24 hour operations for FedEx, UPS and Walmart, seven days a week, including the Port of Los Angeles, the factor of time will be the primary factor of change.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the audit and tax firm, RSM, said in his interview, “At this point there’s not much that the federal government can do to what can accurately be described as a behavioral shock.”

September Jobs report numbers sink and stink

September was supposed to be the month that the US economy would see buoyant numbers that would propel it, ballon like, above the landscape of the Covid pandemic, with its doom and gloom, buoyed aloft by August numbers that said to many, that the nation was well on its way to recovery. Instead Friday’s report from the Labor Dept, showed a miserable 194,000 jobs.

This was in direct contradiction of predictors that said there would be 500,000 expected, and as the old song said, “What a Difference a Day Makes”, played out amongst the desks and offices of the nation’s lawmakers, and of course, the White House where President Biden attempted to minimize the loss and press the need for his Build Back Better program, now stick in the chutes of Congress.

There were strong winds which pulled that balloon down, and chiefly of them was the dwindling presence of women in the workforce, who with the push towards in person learning for their children, were expected to return to work in droves. 

That did not happen, and furthermore there was a significant decline in local and state school employment.

Another factor was child care itself, an expensive cost for many families, and especially low income families, saw a  trend across the country where there are “child  care deserts,” noted Julia Coronado, president and founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, in Friday’s interview with NPR: leaving many to rely on relatives and parents, a chain that can be weakened with a last minute phone call.

The crushing need for child care so that mothers can return to work is now hamstrung by a decrease in staff.

WAMU’s program 1A, broadcast by National Public Radio, reported that, “According to the Department of Labor, daycare and other childcare jobs are down 10 percent – that’s a decline of nearly 127,000 since the pandemic started..And in a nation where childcare and paid family leave aren’t guaranteed, it’s having devastating effects.”

For those that remain, its parent clients can expect to pay between $20,000 and $30,000 per year for one to two children, depending on geographic area.

Centers also have higher costs in having trained and educated staff, plus facility design and supplemental equipment.

Some census reports indicate that there was a change in women workers from a midsummer rate of 8 million to a drop to 5 million, once schools reopened for in person learning; but, the state and local depression of bus drivers, workers and even teachers, (dissatisfied with the job and, on average, a 5 year drop out rate) might cast doubt on those numbers.

Furthermore, employees who are leaving service jobs in droves, in search of less demanding work, an effort that was helped in some geographic areas, where the extra financial cushion of extended benefits gave them time to consider how they earned their daily bread; and, for many it was not in the kitchen, baking it.

While there was an increase in leisure and hospitality jobs, for September, to the tune of 74,000, and a slight increase in wages to attract seasoned and entry level workers, it was not as wide as in August, when increased vaccinations gave consumer confidence a boost, but a decrease in food and beverage hires made a dent in this month’s numbers.

Perhaps some workers returning to the office needed new clothes, and retail did show a 56,000 increase with a corresponding increase in accessories with a surge of 27,000. With neckties now in abeyance for most male workers, some have suggested that, for women, scarves and jewelry may be making headwinds, as they save for child care, instead of new outfits.

Then again employers are having a hard time luring office workers back to the expansive, and expensive office spaces, especially in Chicago, New York and Los Angeles, with many having become satisfied (especially those without child care) with remote work; and, even the lure of an office cocktail party is not making them bum rush to downtown.

The residual effects on all of those sandwich shops, sushi bars, and burrito stores, offer less and have less employees to serve what once was a scene out of Ben Hur, with legions running in and out at noon. And, as we have seen above they have faced employee exits; and, this has been clearly established in the fast food industry, as many fear a higher chance of Covid infection, working shoulder to shoulder.

As Bloomberg News reported a year ago, teenagers and the elderly, once part of the “key demographics . . . are staying away for health and safety reasons.”

“This is the most dramatic shift that’s happened in the modern history of food service,” said Aaron Allen, chief strategist at restaurant consultancy Aaron Allen & Associates,” last year; a trend that  has continued into 2021.

For traditional office spaces, some employers are redesigning the space in the hope that they can be made safer with wider, and more, open spaces; and, those seeking to climb the corporate ladder want face time, not screen time. But, that may have changed with many workers, especially women, wanting a hybrid that gives them some of both, and less child care costs.

The Labor Dept.noted that its household survey showed that “In September, 13.2 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, little changed from the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home  for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic.”

Of course, the hard reality is that there are still 5 million people out of work since the pandemic began almost two years ago and "It's just a bumpy recovery," says Nela Richardson, chief economist at the payroll processing firm ADP. 

"And it's a recovery that's still linked to the pandemic and the delta variant,” she recently told NPR.

Some good news, at least on the surface, was that the unemployment number dipped to 3.8% from 5.2% in August, but as we have pointed out the banner number, or the marquee number, does not say it all.

Labor Force Participation, or LFP, is still a cause for concern and NPR noted, that "that it does seem that a lot of people who are retirement age are opting out rather than staying in the workforce, which is a big, big change from pre-pandemic, when people worked well into their 60s and well after 65," said Tim Fiore, who conducts a monthly survey of factory managers for the Institute for Supply Management,” but, there are just as many that stay, says Fed Chair Jerome Powell, a spry 68.

"The lore is that people don't come out of retirement," Powell said last week during a congressional hearing. "Except I would say, all during the last few years of the very long expansion that ended with the pandemic, we were constantly surprised to the upside on participation, including older people staying in the workforce longer."

How much was the biggest question, and the report says, “The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.6 percent in September and has remained within a narrow range of 61.4 percent to 61.7 percent since June 2020.”

Biden touted the substantial decrease of Black unemployment for September, 7.9%, but on closer inspection it was due to Blacks leaving the workforce rather than gaining employment opportunities, and especially in areas dominated by Black service workers, including fast food, domestic work and healthcare workers, and notably those in long term care and nursing homes.

“The improvement in this month’s unemployment rate is misleading given the decline in the participation rate, in particular when you look at Black men and women,” said economist Valerie Wilson, a director at the Economic Policy Institute to CNBC.com.

“I don’t think that is signaling any acceleration or improvement in the pace of recovery at this point,” Wilson added, noting the difficulty of drawing conclusions about labor market trends from month-to-month changes.”.

Some analysts, especially at the TImes, have tried to spin September as not being so bad and citing that the unemployment rate has decreased faster than it did after the Great Recession of the late 2000’s.

“This represents a remarkably speedy recovery in the labor market — attaining sub-5 percent unemployment a mere 17 months after the end of the deepest recession in modern times. By contrast, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the jobless rate did not reach 4.8 percent until January 2016, six and a half years after the technical end of that recession”, they said.

One important distinction is the absence of a worldwide pandemic, in 2008, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people across the globe and reduced the American economy to near ashes. 

That is the key difference between the two poles.

Credence must be given to the Labor Dept, when they, without a figurative shrug, said, “Recent employment changes are challenging to interpret, as pandemic-related staffing fluctuations in public and private education have distorted the normal seasonal hiring and layoff patterns.”

 

Abuse of Haitian asylum seekers shocks world

 In a dramatic reversal of campaign promises towards asylum seekers, the Biden administration has faced another political bungle, just after alienating France, with harrowing images of Haitian immigrants being beaten back by members of the Border Patrol at the Texas and Mexican international bridge.

These events stand in stark contrast to the president’s stated objectives when it came to asylum seekers and immigrants on the campaign trail, and now in office, the tactics and rulings toward expulsions to Haiti seem more draconian than his predecessor, Donald Trump.

Comparisons to American slavery abound as members of the patrol on horseback used their reigns to ensnare the Haitians, and often using foul curses while doing so.

The consequences of sending  plane loads of them back to Haiti, a country that many had not known, or escaped from, after the 2010 hurricane, seeking employment in South America, (some working at the Summer Olympics in Rio De Janeiro) only to have Covid destroy their livelihoods is even more baffling, since Haiti lost its president in a recent assassination, the economy is in shambles, and many with nothing but the clothes on their backs, are now living on the streets of Port Au Prince.

Further damming the country, Haiti has suffered the aftermath of a recent 7.2 magnitude earthquake, leaving desperation and financial ruin all around.

For Black Americans the images are especially disturbing, and the outrage towards Biden has been relentless, with the NAACP issuing a statement to the White House saying, in part, “White (and white-presenting) men on horseback with lariats are seen chasing, yelling and cursing at vulnerable Black asylum seekers who have for weeks and months been fleeing toward what they thought was safety,”

Adding to the events was Chief Raul Ortiz of the Border Patrol claiming that “the mounted unit was deployed to assist with security and see if any migrants were in distress . . .” reported The New York Times.

Disingenuous to the side, others claimed that the use of horses in an open are not the best choice, “especially with a lot of people, is probably not the best place to be,” said Gil Kerlikowske, a former commissioner with Customs and Border Protection.

As he told the Times, “I think they’re really trying to send a strong deterrence message.”

That open area was also filled with women and children, some who were crossing back and forth, between the two countries, for food, and supplies; knee deep in murky water.

Skirting the issue was Alejandro Mayorkas, secretary for the Homeland Security Department, who defended deterrence matters, while saying on Wednesday that he would look into the matter.

While there is some sympathy for a vexing problem that has plagued many an American presidents these optics, say some, point to a crisis in the West Wing, on how to tackle the issue, with one side saying, accurately, that they were left a mess by the previous administration, and were not prepared to allow any asylum seekers in, and while others, Susan Rice, chiefly, saying deter.

Whoever is responsible for the directions, the subsequent humanitarian crisis is one that has many people recoiling, while the Republicans gleefully point fingers, and decry a “policy” that has caused the events, such as Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri.

In a continuance of Trump’s policy Biden has continued the use of Title 42 to stem the tide of immigration, but now it seeks to staunch the blood from a political fight that can loom large in the upcoming midterm elections.

Reaction from key lawmakers has been swift, with Vice President Kamala Harris calling the treatment “horrible” and that “human beings should never be treated that way.”

On the Hill, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi called the scenes “heartbreaking,” and that she was following the events with a close eye.

On Thursday, the senior American envoy for Haiti policy, Daniel Foote quit in disgust, and in a sharp letter to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said, “"not be associated with the United States inhumane, counterproductive decision to deport thousands of Haitian refugees".

CNN reported that, “State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday that Foote "has both resigned and mischaracterized the circumstances of his resignation."

"He failed to take advantage of ample opportunity to raise concerns about migration during his tenure and chose to resign instead," Price said in a statement. He also said he was "not going to parse the contents of his resignation letter," but disputed a number of the points in that letter.”

White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said that Foote never raised any objections and that all opinions were valued, and "I would note that Special Envoy Foote had ample opportunity to raise concerns about migration during his tenure. He never once did so. Now, that wasn't his purview," Psaki said during a White House briefing. "His purview was, of course, being the special envoy on the ground. His positions were and his views were put forward. They were valued. They were heard. Different policy decisions were made in some circumstances."

It’s easy to see that Foote has been left twisting in the wind, but his resignation added fuel to a fire that does not seem to be easily extinguished.

To stem the tide of the double debacle, the United States has allowed some of the asylum seekers to remain in the country, mostly women, and men, with children, and families. Processing has been done in Houston by a faith based group, with many joining family members already there.

Locations include New York, Boston and Miami; meanwhile the horse patrol has been suspended, but 4,000 asylum seekers still remain in Texas, with rough estimates that 2,000 were repatriated to Haiti and another 2,000 to stay in the US to await adjudication with the immigration courts, which could take years.

Mayorkas has now said that the area in Del Rio has been cleared by “heroic” efforts, and promised an investigation that will not be predetermined. He also gave some numbers that were at variance with earlier media reports.

According to The Washington Post, “Mayorkas said about 2,000 migrants have been expelled to Haiti on a total of 17 flights organized by DHS. Six more flights were scheduled Friday. About 8,000 migrants “decided to return to Mexico voluntarily,” he said.

The Post also gave some statements, on deep background, and that person said “Most of the 8,000 were part of those who arrived to the Del Rio camp, indicating more than half of the migrants who arrived there have returned to Mexico, according to a DHS official who was not authorized to speak to reporters.”

Meanwhile Biden said, “It was horrible,” and, “To see people treated like they did? Horses running them over and people being strapped? It's outrageous and I promise you, those people will pay.”

“There will be consequences,” he said. “It’s simply not who we are.”

This  incident has revealed some deep fissures in a White House that most felt was diligent and competent, veterans of previous administrations, who were compelled by nature to refute much of what the last four years had borne.

To many the thought process of some in the Biden White House is confusing, and, as an example, there is this: “Mayorkas said the administration had determined Haiti to be capable of taking back the returnees, just weeks after finding the country too unsafe as DHS extended protected status to eligible Haitians present in the United States before July 29, shielding them from deportation.”

This is a developing story with updates to be provided.