What Manchin doesn't want, Biden can't get

Sen. Joe Manchin’s behavior around the Build Back Better bill makes him seem like the boyfriend that you can’t live with, or without. Just a week before Christmas he played Scrooge and denied President Biden a vote on his signature piece of social legislation, many of which contain pieces that Democrats have wanted for decades, and all of it hinging on the budget reconciliation process, in other words consensus, that the Democrats were forced to adopt since no Republicans would join them on this historical reform bill.

Now in the face of the upcoming midterms and low poll ratings for the president, Biden is forced to find some type of working relationship to salvage his presidency and to avert a possible departure of Manchin to the Republican party, leaving the slim majority the Dems have in the Senate fractured.

Yet as the old saying goes, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.”

This is an unenviable position and after seeing companion pieces like the voting rights bill dormant, the president also faces losing a key constituency, Black voters, that helped propel him to office. 

For progressives, like Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) who have given up so much, asking for more cuts risks losing the progressive wing that Biden needs for further legislation.

Some accused them, and also White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, of saying too much when they collectively accused the West Virginia senator of negotiating in bad faith and betraying the president, but, yet this is exactly what he did, and there is no amount of sugar coating that will change it.

Putting it mildly, to say the least, and using an old southern (G rated) expression he “messed” with the president; and, seemingly to all ears, had no intention of signing the bill.

Whether it was child tax credit extension, preschool advancements, or paid family leave it was always “no”, say Capitol Hill observers.

Attempts at wooing Manchin with a watered down bill will produce just that, a watered down bill.  And his grandstanding. That can’t be taken to the polls.

With Congress as well as the president in their home states celebrating the holidays, the post holiday buzz is how to advance ahead, and that is a road ahead that no one wants to imagine, but must be done.

Glancing into the rear view mirror, the president and voters are remembering the withdrawal from Afghanistan where right wing voters, one in particular, told us that “Biden deserves a bullet in his head for leaving all that equipment behind.”

Moving behind that dangerous rhetoric, and Jan. 6th aside, there was also the optics of Border Patrol whipping Haitian immigrants in the Rio Grande, alienating Black congressional leadership; some in the Beltway see the president riding for a fall.

A recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last Monday said that 41 percent of Americans approve of his job, with 55 percent disapproving.

That old curmudgeon Sen. Lindsay Graham, said on FOX news,’I think Build Back Better is dead forever, and let me tell you why: because Joe Manchin has said he’s not going to vote for a bill  that will add to the deficit.”

Jayapal has noted that “I am sure that the conversation about legislation will continue, and we will continue to be involved in that. But, no one should think that we are going to be satisfied with an even smaller package that leaves people behind or refuses to tackle critical issues like climate change.”

And, as a final coda, The Hill reported that progressives “watched some of their biggest priorities stall out.”

Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, according to The Hill has proposed an idea that would cobble together a few key pieces such as prescription drugs, a ramped up Obamacare, clean energy and a “beefed up child tax credit”, and using the same revenue stream that his Senate Finance Committee, of which he is chair, from the same legislation earlier proposed.

Getting approval from Manchin might be like getting blood from a turnip, and after most of the year trying to woo him, it’s possible that the Democrats could push Manchin to the GOP where he seems most at home, and persuade a switch from the GOP to make this all come together.

He has also promoted overhauling the 2017 Tax Code, an effort that could simply mire the Dems in a long slog, that could reach nothing, but endless detail, and hot air; a clever and disingenuous move by Manchin.

Majority leader, Chuck Schumer has said that he wants to take a floor vote, that has surprised some observers, but would flush out Manchin’s true intent, on record, for as he has said, “I can't guarantee anything upfront, just vote, you’ll find out where I am.”