Court decision on Roe might help Biden in midterms

 

Now that that the dust has somewhat settled after the leak of a draft by the US Supreme Court with its intention to rescind the 1973 ruling establishing precedent for abortions in the country, and the backlash from pro choice supporters, and praise from antiabortionists, the verified document will send abortion rights back to the states, and will undoubtedly create a patchwork of laws affecting over 60 million American women.

The 6 to 3 conservative majority has also become a political beast of its  own with the legacy of three Trump appointed justices, and a conservative chief justice, and along with their majority they are also Roman Catholic, whose church is famously opposed to abortion.

The country has been rolling over what a post-Roe America will look like, but it also provides a window of hope for the Biden administration in the upcoming midterms, as his unexpected presidential agenda, includes a land war in Ukraine, without boots on the ground, but with considerable US financial aid; and, a continuing pandemic, which despite appearances, is still present, and battered by foreign policy flubs such as the bypass with France, to favor a deal with Australia over submarine contracts, and now another racially motivated mass shooting, that has the president pockmarked with bad poll numbers: 54.5 disapproving and 41.0 according to fivethirtyeight.com.

While perhaps not a stage for a counter revolution, seeing the country’s women face down a barrage of statewide trigger laws outlawing abortion, that alone, might galvanize abortion rights supporters, including independents to the November polls, or at least enough voter escalation to sustain the current slim majority by the Democrats in the Senate.

For those of a certain generation, the appeal to states rights is a familiar refrain of “rights history'', and was infamously used, more than fifty years ago, to fight civil rights laws for Black Americans, against the stronger teeth of federal legislation.

Extended to its most grievous aspects, the fear, of such legislation, is that it will be used to prevent women from accessing birth control information on their personal electronic devices, such as personal computers, or smartphones, but, also to the imprisonment of doctors, and even family members, who might assist in any manner to aid a woman in obtaining an abortion, even, as we’ve recently learned, crossing state lines to obtain one.

This has its roots in the the Texas law that saw an abridgement of these  freedoms which prompted Vice President Kamala Harris to state:

“All Americans should realize that this is a direct assault on the freedom of women, and it is an attack that can affect all Americans.”

Those fears also face the possible roll back of same sex marriage, and other key social legislation that has been passed, and as Harris continued, “When you look at the privacy rights that are in jeopardy, it could very well include the right to marry someone of the same sex.”

These fears can be seen, say some pollsters and academics, as a path to harness the needed votes for the Democrats to hold onto not only current majorities, but also to redefine the Biden administration.

The president has also called out the radicalism of the MAGA crowd, and while not mentioning the name of former President Trump, whose support for primary candidates may have splintered in some areas, (but certainly not all), still resonates with a radicalized and conservative crowd, even in a reliably blue city like Chicago, there are many residents that revere his name, and want him back in the Oval Office.

“Let me tell you about this ultra MAGA agenda,” Biden said, using former president Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign slogan — “Make America Great Again” — as a pejorative. “It’s extreme, as most MAGA things are.”

Then, in the subsequent days, Biden and his team continued to hammer Republicans in aggressive terms, attacking them as “MAGA” and “ultra MAGA.” Biden even dismissed his predecessor at one point as “the great MAGA king,” reported The Washington Post.

A rallying call of sorts, was a coda issued by the vice-president who added, “I also believe strongly there is another fundamental right that is at stake, the right that all should be entitled to self determination.”

The problem is that in midterms of the past the Dems have taken a shellacking, Clinton in 1994 with 54 seats lost in the House of Representatives and Obama in 2010 and 2014, of 77; with a regain of 12, and with stakes at their highest for a denouement with Biden. 

Presidential historians show that midterm losses, the report card if you will, by the electorate, is now considered a given, as well as a travesty, by the standards of 2010.

To try and change that pattern Harris has used the New Frontier rhetoric of the Kennedy administration, when she said, “There is, at this moment, a time for education, a time for communication, a time for mobilization.”

What will be necessary for this to come together is a calculated campaign with all hands on deck, to show that the calculated politicization of the court: the assault on women's rights is something that is of utmost importance.

Doug Sosnik, a senior political advisor to Bill Clinton, told the Los Angeles Times, earlier in May, that after the ruling, in June could show “the impacts of the court’s actions will affect the lives of more voters, providing Biden with a further opening to sharpen his political narrative.”

Also, from veteran pollster Celinda Lake in that same forum , “This could be game changing in the midterm elections, and changing what happens in the midterms could have a profound effect on how people view the Biden presidency.”

April US Jobs report brought showers of joy

 In one of the more dramatic moments in US job history, the Labor Dept. on Friday announced in the April Jobs Report, that there was a gain of non farm jobs to 428,000, helping to narrow the total jobs lost to the pandemic to a near return of 95 percent, and giving solace to not only the White House, but also to the sagging polls of President Joe Biden as he struggles to gain momentum, after being battered, albeit unfairly, for high inflation, crime, and other social and economic problems.

Unemployment, the marquee number, as we prefer to call it, held steady at 3.6 percent, but the fly in the ointment was the low, nearly unchanged labor force participation, that hung in at  62.2  percent, with a loss of participation of 363,000.

That aside, the report was solid, providing solace to many, ,and an assurance that the US economy, at least for replacing jobs lost to the Covid pandemic, was faster than expected.

Wages were up by 5.5 percent, but those rising wages, while needed to cover inflated costs for the consumer, might also threaten the already fragile inflationary surge that is felt from Main Street, to Wall Street.

President Biden, has noted that “Fighting inflation is a top priority,” for his administration and bolstered by the rate increase by the Federal Reserve Board, might make a difference, as it attempts to cool down the economy, and avoid further inflation, and the recent increase by half a percentage point, is only a path toward more.

The New York Times reported that, “President Biden pointed to the latest data as evidence of “the strongest job creation economy in modern times,” a message the White House is increasingly amplifying ahead of the congressional elections.”

All things being political and with the looming November midterms, the Times also said that, “After the Labor Department report on Friday, Ronna McDaniel, the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, put the spotlight on inflation rather than jobs. “Families can’t afford food and groceries, wages can’t keep up with inflation, and Biden’s agenda is only going to make it worse,” she said in a statement.`

Going even further the Times noted that, “Job creation will eventually settle into a slower pace as businesses feel the pinch of soaring inflation and tighter financial conditions, but gains will stay healthy,” said Oren Klachkin, a lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. He forecast that the economy, which has added two million jobs in 2022, would add another two million by year’s end.”

Taking this as good news, at least on the periphery, it’s easy to see that the delicate balance between the Feds, on one hand, trying to pry loose the levers of inflation, is like a house of cards, with only a good gust of wind from an open window, or door, to send it all sailing downward.

Fed Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, said on Wednesday at a press conference,:"So we think through our policies, through further healing in the labor market, higher rates, for example of vacancy filling and things like that, and more people coming back in we'd like to think that supply and demand will come back into balance,". 

Wages were very much on his mind and the 0.3% increase, can be problematic as we said in March,with fears of further fueling inflation, and he added, "And that, therefore, wage inflation will moderate to still high levels of wage increases, but ones that are more consistent with 2% inflation. That's our expectation."

Meanwhile the American consumer, the driver of the US economy is in a party mode, and is spending and traveling, (at least those that can),and the increase in spending on  goods, versus services from the lockdown, can be felt, and major US air carriers are saying “get your tickets now folks, before the prices go up,and up.”

Then there is that pesky crowd of 23 million workers who don’t seem to want to fill employers needs for trained workers, some of who are maybe afraid of covid, or remain unvaccinated, or even those that are still looking for a better opportunity, that they pondered during the lockdown,and business closures. But, whatever the reason, they are not there and don’t seem to want to be there.

Yahoo Finance noted that, “Almost 500,000 workers decided to leave the workforce in April. The large decline is a concerning prospect for businesses that are facing one of the tightest labor markets in decades," Peter Essele, Head of Portfolio Management for Commonwealth Financial Network, said in an email Friday morning.” 

For the record there are 1.9 vacancies for every unemployed worker, but in a report where economists predicted a 300,000 increase the dilemma remains.

Among the higher numbers was that the job gains were led by leisure and hospitality at 78,000, and employment in restaurants and bars rocketed up to 44,000.

Transportation and warehousing shot up to 52,000 to keep up with demand, in an area that was worrisome to many, a few months ago.

The old adage of time healing all wounds may be true, but for the American economy, it’s good news, for now.