Impeachment divides Dems as Pelosi stands by standards

Mr. Mueller

It was supposed to be the smoking gun, the one that felled the bad guy, and in this case it was Donald Trump, whose American presidency had turned, say his critics, into a circus-like whirlwind of executive orders that stranded travelling immigrants abroad, and sent their visiting relatives back to their home countries, who separated children from their parents, as they sought political asylum, in wirebound cubicles, and whose refusal to criticize white supremacists over the removal of a Confederate era soldier branded him a racist.

The list is extensive, and most of the president’s opponents, and the targets of his late-night tweets, and ire, Democrats, thought the Mueller report was the key to his removal from office; yet the report, by its nature was intended to get the facts, just the facts, as the old 60’s era television detective intoned into mid-century living rooms.

When the report, or to be exact the summary prepared by Attorney General William Barr was tilted in the direction of protecting Trump, and not the American public. While the Democrats are justified, in their cries of nepotism, the drama that lies before them is a many headed hydra that is as complicated as the Gordian knot.

Partisanship aside, the US Constitution gives Congress and the House of Representatives legal oversight on suspicious behavior by Trump and, by turns, his family members in their quest for power, and dominance, as they reshape the government and foreign policy; examples of which are son-in-law Jared Kushner looking to establish a secret back channel with Russia, that even they thought was a trap.

The self exoneration that the president intoned and that was strutted about by White House spokesperson, Sarah Sanders, gave all of the appearances of a banana republic and not the lofty republic planned by John Adams, and Thomas Jefferson, and the prolific James Madison.

The drama will now continue, but as the storm clouds gather, it’s apparent, as we noted before, that the Barr summary and the president’s subsequent self-exoneration are designed for his reflection, and all subsequent behaviors and statement radiate from that, including wanting to include a citizenship question on the next census, as a nativist effort to flush out illegal immigrants, the cause celebre of his 2016 campaign effort.

To the frustration of many, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell seems pledged to do the same, come hell, or high water, whichever comes first. Joined with Barr, whos is just the type of “corporate” AG, he wanted, Trump is on a roll, even as he stumbles.

Circling back we need to take a look at the following words from the report: “If we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the President clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state. Based on the facts and the applicable legal standards, we are unable to reach that judgment.”

What we see is a frightened man, whose main goal with the 2016 campaign was less about winning, than enhancing his empire, supporting earlier reports from Steve Bannon, former advisor that he was stunned into uncharacteristic silence when he heard that he had won, as his wife Melania burst into tears.

Later, in what most people have chuckled over was this report from Time Magazine” “According to Mueller, the president was despondent when Attorney General Jeff Sessions informed him that the special counsel had been appointed in 2017.

“This is the end of my presidency. I’m fucked,” the President said to Sessions.

“Even in its incomplete form, the Mueller report outlines disturbing evidence that President Trump engaged in obstruction of justice and other misconduct,” House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler said in a statement Thursday. “The Special Counsel made clear that he did not exonerate the President,” he added. “The responsibility now falls to Congress to hold the President accountable for his actions.”

“On Friday morning, Nadler issued a subpoena for the entire report and the “underlying materials.” He wrote in a statement that it is now Congress’ responsibility to determine the extent of the president and his associates’ alleged misconduct, said Time.

The Dems are divided on the issue and there was a Monday conference call from the Speaker of the House, and that summarized, by Nancy Pelosi, who holds the office, that caution was needed to ensure that the facts were obtained and in a deliberate process.

Ms. Pelosi

She did not rule out impeachment, but carefully noted,  according to The New York Times, “We have to save our democracy. This isn’t about Democrats or Republicans. It’s about saving our democracy,” Ms. Pelosi told the 172 members who participated in the 87-minute conference call, keeping the possibility of impeachment alive. “If it is what we need to do to honor our responsibility to the Constitution — if that’s the place the facts take us, that’s the place we have to go.”

Perhaps the best summary, we’ve seen is again, from Time, whose editorial opinion noted:

“No one wants to see this sad episode in our country’s history drag on, but the question of whether Americans conspired with the Russian government to influence a presidential election is far too critical to remain unanswered because information was concealed, destroyed or unavailable. There has been much discussion of Mueller providing Congress with a road map for investigation of obstruction of justice. But when it comes to coordination between the campaign and Russia’s government, Mueller seems to be suggesting the same thing: there is further work to be done. The conclusions in his report are prosecutors’ decisions, grounded in the stern requirements of the criminal law and the available evidence. But as Mueller noted, further evidence, whether it comes from investigation on the Hill or in ongoing federal and state criminal cases, could shed new light on our understanding of what took place. Attorney General William Barr may have exonerated the President, but Mueller didn’t.”

The American public may learn more when Mueller appears before the House Intelligence Committee, and his reasoning, but despite the demand for impeachment from Senator, and Democratic candidate, Elizabeth Warren, there is the problem of focusing all legislative energies on Trump and none, on the issues, that the Democrats were elected on, in the mid-term elections: health care, affordable housing and an increase in the minimum wage to ensure the health and well-being of working American families and individuals -- to abandon that mandate would be disastrous.

Plus, as The Hill reported, last month, “Starting impeachment proceedings seems unlikely to end in a Senate conviction given the two-thirds majority needed in a body Republicans control with a 53-47 majority. That makes it a tricky political proposition, especially as Democrats eye a 2020 election they think could end the Trump era and leave Democrats in control of Congress and the White House. That scenario would leave Pelosi with the chance at scoring some sweeping policy achievements on health care and climate change in her last years in Washington.”

Some observers have been fool-hardy enough to state that they don’t care, in their rush to purify the Oval Office, and also neglect the fact that if VIce-President, Mike Pence, who one wag noted was a “real politician” succeeded the presidency things could go far worse, especially for the LGBT community whose day is not done, despite marriage equality.

“I think my community would like to make sure we are legislating on the agenda that brought many freshmen here, and also making sure we get to the bottom of the Mueller report’s findings,” said Representative Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania, a moderate freshman whose district had been Republican,” the Times added.

When added to the mix of the investigative efforts of Jerry Nadler and Elijah Cummings, Democratic House Oversight chair, we can add the Southern District New York, and that of the State of New York’s attorney general then there is enough, to be enough as they look at Trump Tower, Trump Trust, Trump Holdings, and the Trump Foundation.

Impeachment without the necessary work, and best practices, could also endanger the political lives of moderate Democrats, at a time, when they are most needed.

March Jobs Report continues to see-saw

Friday’s March Jobs Report from the Labor Department gave hope to the unbelievers of the US economy, and made others wary that while it was a strong outlook, there were storm clouds gathering for a pending recession, in the future. Others, as usual more sanguine, believed that the day of doom, predicted by some from the dismal February report, which gave pause to economists, and  lawmakers alike, was only a mirage.

The figure of 196,000 non-farm jobs gave true believers the conviction that it was all possible and that the future was strong, and with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.8 percent, all was well.

For those that are still worried about what the last several reports have shown about low wages, still holding at 3.2 observers have turned themselves inside out, to see the silver lining.

Many have strained to see light at the end of a cloudy tunnel, and among them we see this:  “It’s a volatile number; it tends to bounce up and down,” Martha Gimbel, research director at the job-search site Indeed said. “What’s more important is that we’ve had six straight months above 3 percent.”

In a different vein, some say that  “the decline appears to be due to shifting demographics rather than underlying weakness in the job market, according to Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at the career site Glassdoor” to Business Insider.

When ADP released its earlier report on private employment, of 129,000, some felt that the old trust in them as a bellwether of the Labor Department, might just prove to be true.

Joshua Wright, chief economist for iCIMS, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance that “One of the things that’s been most remarkable over the last 10 years has been just how steady the labor market expansion has been.” after  the addition of new jobs for the 101st consecutive month.

“Normally when you have an expansion go on this long, job growth dips into negative territory every now and then,” he said.

With revisions to both January and February, to 33,000 and January from 311, 000 to 312,000, the average gains are now at 180,000, nothing to sneeze at, but with no significant wage increase since the Great recession, there is now an average 4 cents increase resulting in an average hourly rate of $27,70.

Some have ventured various theories form the continued rise of the big box retailers, and the Hercules Amazon, to non-compete clauses, to those staying with the same employer not seeing any increase, and those changing jobs to get one.

None of these theories have been proven to be the central cause, and with the labor participation rate of just below 63 percent, the needle has barely moved, at a resulting 224,000.

Coupled with a much higher cost of living, and a lack of affordable housing, especially in urban areas, the income gap has proved to be a formidable challenge for working American families and individuals.

When adjusted for inflation, the Consumer Price Index is 2.4, lower than it needs to be and with consumer spending as the chief vehicle for economic growth, for the nation, there is still serious concern among economists.

There are some key growth areas, nursing has shown a continued growth, (seen as a service industry) and also a steady growth in software development, an area that has seen rapid growth with the increase in handheld devices and mobile technology, and not seen as one that will abate.

Health care has seen an increase of 49,000, and that old catch-all category “professional and business services” has increased to 34,000, but that also captures temporary agency workers, as well as those loosely assigned to the perimeters of the business community; so caution is urged.

Food and beverage, after the holiday splurge has taken on 27,000 new hires, and may see more in April after early income tax checks have been cashed.

From the ranks of the cheerleaders we have  this: “We think the labor market is the strongest thing in the U.S. economy right now,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, in a comment to  The New York Times.

Being all things equal, the economic news has been politicized, and while President Trump has tried to blame Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, for any slowdown, as many are predicting, the Times added, “But in recent months, economists have seen reasons to doubt the strength of the economy. The invigorating effects of the tax cuts enacted at the end of 2017 are expected to fade. Large overseas economies have slowed, in part a reaction to continuing trade tensions. And while the stock market has rallied since a rout at the end of last year, other important financial indicators — such as government bond yields — suggest that investors expect growth to moderate.”

There are also concerns about the GDP, with some forecasting that it will rise to 2.1 percent, with the Federal Reserve, saying it can come from 0.2, but to be noted it was over 2.9 in 2018.

Of equal concern is the current increase in layoffs that might temper and test even the best indicators and future predictions, as CNBC reported that “Layoffs hit their highest level for a first quarter in 10 years as 2019′s job market got off to a shaky start, according to a report Thursday from outplacement firm Challenger, Gary & Christmas.

“Total announced cuts hit 190,410, a 10.3 percent increase from the fourth quarter and 35.6 percent jump from the same period a year ago. The level was worst period overall since the third quarter of 2015 and the highest level for a first quarter since 2009 as the economy was still mired in the financial crisis.”

“Companies appear to be streamlining and updating their processes, and workforce reductions are increasingly becoming a part of these decisions, ” Andrew Challenger, vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement. “Consumer behavior and advances in technology are driving many of these cuts.”

Continuing, the report said that “The auto industry led by sector in March with 8,838 layoffs, followed by energy with 8,149 cuts. Financial firms were next with 4,884, while retail followed with 4,860. Retail has announced 46,061 cuts this year, an 18.5 percent decrease from the first quarter of 2018.

“Several indications, such as the number of companies filing for bankruptcy or closing operations, suggest we’re heading for a downturn. The recent proposal to close the southern border adds to the uncertainty and may contribute to more cuts as companies try to adapt,” Challenger said.”

As previously noted, there is the banner headline of jobs gained and also the more accurate household survey, but  “A more encompassing unemployment rate that counts discouraged workers as well as those holding jobs part time for economic reasons, often called the “real” unemployment rate, plunged to 7.3 percent in February from 8.1 percent in January. Those employed part time for economic reasons tumbled by 837,000 to 4.3 million while those completing temporary jobs fell by 225,000, which a Labor Department official said was a consequence of the government shutdown that ended in late January.”

This might seem as complicating the picture, but the behind-the-scenes look continues to show a mixed bag of highs and lows, especially in the area of low wages that make it hard, coupled with the layoffs to see March as a stellar rebound, giving us a good, but not great report, and a slow down can lead to a recession.

Add the specter of more layoffs, and the best that can be given is cautious optimism that leans toward the good, but not the spectacular; and the relentless partisanship coming from the White House, gives us pause - but Powell's’ pause in interest rate hikes gives the president what he wants, and if there is a nosedive, then he is blameless.

Trump's efforts to lead off on 2020 hit road blocks

Fresh from his self-declared exoneration and extrapolation from the Mueller Report, President Donald Trump jump started his 2020 reelection campaign, last week, using  his favored medium - a large scale political rally - complete with cheering crowds and MAGA hats, in the American state of Michigan; notable for contributing to the 2016 election loss by Hillary Clinton, a fact not overlooked by the Republican National Committee. 

Grand Rapids is a conservative town of mainly Dutch Reformed Protestants, (and home of Education Secretary, Betsy DeVos), and in contrast to religious conservatism ,or perhaps because of it, the rally held a carnival air, replete with an opening act: Trumps son, Donald, Jr, taking trash talking to a new low, as he pilloried freshman congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the crowd roared back “AOC sucks!”

When the president came to the stage, beaming under the blinding lights, like a rock star, the deafening applause rolled over him, giving him a beatific air.

Seizing upon either Ocasio-Cortez’s nervousness, or a mental blank,she fumbled some basic civics, in an interview very much like his father, Trump, Jr. had this to say: "Think about the fact that every mainstream, leading Democratic contender is taking the advice of a freshman congresswoman who three weeks ago didn’t know the three branches of government. I don’t know about you guys, but that’s pretty scary.”

"You guys, you’re not very nice," Trump Jr. said in response to the chant. "And neither is what that policy would do to this country."

Ocasio-Cortez is the new punching bag for the extreme right, almost outpacing Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and the fact that she is not the Richelieu to elder lawmakers that Junior claimed, is beside the point since the intent is to win his father the White House for a second term.

The coda to the Michigan rally was the president's threat to close the Southern Border because Trump believes that Mexico is not doing enough to prevent the mass of political asylum seekers from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, and and that closing the border is the only solution to what he characterizes as an intolerable situation.

What would be intolerable is the jeopardization of over $1.7 billion in trade between the two countries, and the flow of Americans commuting to and from from the two countries for legitimate business purposes.

While Trump falsely touted the return of auto plants to Michigan at the rally, an event that was  already in the works, CNN reported on Tuesday that “The entire US auto industry would shut down within a week if President Donald Trump goes through with his pledge to close the US-Mexican border, according to a leading expert on the industry.

That's because every automaker operating an auto plant in the United States depends on parts imported from Mexico, said Kristin Dziczek, the vice president of industry, labor and economics at the Center for Automotive Research.

About 16% of all auto parts used in the United States, both at assembly plants and sold at auto parts stores, originate in Mexico. Virtually all car models in America have Mexican parts, she said. Because of that reliance, she said the auto industry would stop producing vehicles relatively.”

"You can't sell cars with missing pieces," she said. "You've got to have them all. I see the whole industry shutdown within a week of a border closing."

Then again there seems to be little thought of that from Trump, or his supporters, but the proposal shows that there he has little regard for the millions of working American families depending on an automotive paycheck.

In full campaign mode, Trump noted: ‘‘If they don’t stop them, we’re closing the border,’’ Trump said at an event in Florida. ‘‘We’ll close it. And we’ll keep it closed for a long time. I’m not playing games. Mexico has to stop it.’’

This, of course, builds on the backs of his anti-Mexican remarks during the campaign -- but now, extended to those from the three countries, the so-called Northern Triangle, and belies Mexican efforts to hold the asylum seekers, at bay, in Mexico, actions that have earned them the enmity of humanitarian organizations..

“Kevin McAleenan, the commissioner of US Customs and Border Protection, said that for the first time in more than a decade, his agency is ‘‘reluctantly’’ performing direct releases of migrants, meaning they are not turned over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, they are not detained, they are not given ankle bracelets to track their movements, and they are allowed to leave with just a notice to appear in court at a later date,” said the Boston Globe.

Following the dots of campaign promises it’s easy to see the path the president is leading his base, and here is a sample of a reader’s comment from their coverage: “Our country is being invaded and the democrats are ignoring this crisis for the sole purpose of getting more people to vote for them. Tell me why its a good thing to have hundreds of thousands of unvetted people coming across our borders annually. Beside the huge cost the security risks are huge with the gang members, drug trafficers, (sic) human trafficers (sic) and even many from high risk mid eastern countries. Thank President Trump for looking out for Americans.”

And another: “It's a massive invasion on a sovereign country! Thank God you don't run the country!! no other country in the world would put up with assault on their border!! We owe the illegals nothing!! but we owe our hard working Taxpaying LEGAL citizens everything!! Its (sic) not our Responsibility to care of these unfortunate people! Its (sic) the responsibility of their government to offer basic needs and opportunity , to their own people!!! Hold them to it!! Shut the entire border down now!!! and maybe their corrupt and incompetent politicians will get the hint, or pay the consequences of their deliberate actions!!!!!!!!!!!”

What is not mentioned is that these asylum seekers are escaping gang violence, graft corruption, rape and other atrocities -- and that the American system of asylum is in need of desperate reform, and that closing the border would only increase the flow of illegal immigration, in the absence of the system, weakened or not..

In the space of a few days, the tone has changed, and “White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the Trump administration sees Mexico “stepping up and taking a greater sense of responsibility” for dealing with the immigration flows that U.S. officials say are overwhelming ports of entry along the border.

“They have started to do a significant amount more. We’ve seen them take a larger number of individuals” and hold those who have asylum claims in Mexico while they are being processed in the United States, Sanders told reporters at the White House.

“We’ve also seen them stop more people from coming across the border so that they aren’t even entering into the United States. So those two things are certainly helpful and we’d like to see them continue,” Sanders said according to Reuters.

The softening of the more bellicose rhetoric that was heard last Friday included this tweet, from the president, ““After many years (decades), Mexico is apprehending large numbers of people at their Southern Border, mostly from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.”

Sanders, as usual, has blamed the Democrats on Tuesday, in this clip from White House reporter April Ryan from American Urban Radio Networks.

In response, Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has cited the need for “prudence” and said he wasn’t going to get involved in what he characterized as U.S. “electoral” polemics.

“We are helping” to regulate the flow of U.S.-bound migrants, Lopez Obrador said on Monday, adding that he sought “a policy of friendship with the government of the United States.”

In a tweet his foreign minister said, “"Mexico does not act on the basis of threats," unquote. And there's also a pretty real chance that this kind of move could backfire because it would have dire economic consequences not only for Mexico, but on the U.S. side of the border as well.

After warnings about the damage to trade between the two countries - Mexico is the third largest trading partner with the U.S., including this from Mitch McConnell, Senate majority leader: “Closing down the border would have potentially catastrophic economic impact on our country, and I would hope we would not be doing that.”

Trump’s waffling has now evolved to this: he will give Mexico one year, before he uses drastic measures, meaning, shutting down the Southern border.

As most have acknowledged, immigration is a key issue with his base, and as we have seen earlier, the battle to retain the White House is of primary importance both for the president and GOP leaders, after spending eight years outside the gates.

Looking for a triple Trifecta to grip the base was the recent promise to destroy Obamacare, that has helped millions of American families and individuals gain much needed medical care, and in some cases, life saving surgery. And, while the record shows that the legislation needed adjustments, in key areas, such as widely varying premiums, it also shows that Republicans were unwilling to work with the Democrats to do so.

The Senate was aghast when the president announced that healthcare was on the table again, and Democrats were gleeful that they would have an opportunity to shame the White House, on an issue that brought them to victory in the midterms.

The GOP efforts in the past have proved unsuccessful for more than six years, with the effort between Sens. Cassidy and Graham, being the leading bomb in 2017, despite Republicans gleefully  chanting as they gutted the individual mandate.

Trump has based this on December’s ruling by Judge Reed O’Connor that if the individual mandate was removed then the whole act was unconstitutional, yet NBC news opined: “If you think that this [ruling] doesn’t make any sense, you’re right. First of all, as amended by Congress, there is no longer any “mandate” to purchase health insurance — consumers have the choice to carry insurance or pay... nothing. And the argument that, if the non-actually-existent “mandate” is unconstitutional, the entire bill must fall is even worse. According to O’Connor, Congress “intended” to preserve the original mandate because “knew that provision is essential to the ACA.”

While public opinion is split on the merits of the ACA, most of the provisions of the law are very popular, even among Republican voters, and repealing without replacing as Susan Collins, senator from Maine has said, is unacceptable, as is poulagating the se of high deductible plans, joined to tax-free health savings accounts, as set aside money for medical expenses.

Seeing the writing on the wall was McConnell who told Trump that the Senate would not attempt another repeal of the legislation until after the 2020 elections.