Trump's efforts to lead off on 2020 hit road blocks

Fresh from his self-declared exoneration and extrapolation from the Mueller Report, President Donald Trump jump started his 2020 reelection campaign, last week, using  his favored medium - a large scale political rally - complete with cheering crowds and MAGA hats, in the American state of Michigan; notable for contributing to the 2016 election loss by Hillary Clinton, a fact not overlooked by the Republican National Committee. 

Grand Rapids is a conservative town of mainly Dutch Reformed Protestants, (and home of Education Secretary, Betsy DeVos), and in contrast to religious conservatism ,or perhaps because of it, the rally held a carnival air, replete with an opening act: Trumps son, Donald, Jr, taking trash talking to a new low, as he pilloried freshman congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the crowd roared back “AOC sucks!”

When the president came to the stage, beaming under the blinding lights, like a rock star, the deafening applause rolled over him, giving him a beatific air.

Seizing upon either Ocasio-Cortez’s nervousness, or a mental blank,she fumbled some basic civics, in an interview very much like his father, Trump, Jr. had this to say: "Think about the fact that every mainstream, leading Democratic contender is taking the advice of a freshman congresswoman who three weeks ago didn’t know the three branches of government. I don’t know about you guys, but that’s pretty scary.”

"You guys, you’re not very nice," Trump Jr. said in response to the chant. "And neither is what that policy would do to this country."

Ocasio-Cortez is the new punching bag for the extreme right, almost outpacing Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and the fact that she is not the Richelieu to elder lawmakers that Junior claimed, is beside the point since the intent is to win his father the White House for a second term.

The coda to the Michigan rally was the president's threat to close the Southern Border because Trump believes that Mexico is not doing enough to prevent the mass of political asylum seekers from Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, and and that closing the border is the only solution to what he characterizes as an intolerable situation.

What would be intolerable is the jeopardization of over $1.7 billion in trade between the two countries, and the flow of Americans commuting to and from from the two countries for legitimate business purposes.

While Trump falsely touted the return of auto plants to Michigan at the rally, an event that was  already in the works, CNN reported on Tuesday that “The entire US auto industry would shut down within a week if President Donald Trump goes through with his pledge to close the US-Mexican border, according to a leading expert on the industry.

That's because every automaker operating an auto plant in the United States depends on parts imported from Mexico, said Kristin Dziczek, the vice president of industry, labor and economics at the Center for Automotive Research.

About 16% of all auto parts used in the United States, both at assembly plants and sold at auto parts stores, originate in Mexico. Virtually all car models in America have Mexican parts, she said. Because of that reliance, she said the auto industry would stop producing vehicles relatively.”

"You can't sell cars with missing pieces," she said. "You've got to have them all. I see the whole industry shutdown within a week of a border closing."

Then again there seems to be little thought of that from Trump, or his supporters, but the proposal shows that there he has little regard for the millions of working American families depending on an automotive paycheck.

In full campaign mode, Trump noted: ‘‘If they don’t stop them, we’re closing the border,’’ Trump said at an event in Florida. ‘‘We’ll close it. And we’ll keep it closed for a long time. I’m not playing games. Mexico has to stop it.’’

This, of course, builds on the backs of his anti-Mexican remarks during the campaign -- but now, extended to those from the three countries, the so-called Northern Triangle, and belies Mexican efforts to hold the asylum seekers, at bay, in Mexico, actions that have earned them the enmity of humanitarian organizations..

“Kevin McAleenan, the commissioner of US Customs and Border Protection, said that for the first time in more than a decade, his agency is ‘‘reluctantly’’ performing direct releases of migrants, meaning they are not turned over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, they are not detained, they are not given ankle bracelets to track their movements, and they are allowed to leave with just a notice to appear in court at a later date,” said the Boston Globe.

Following the dots of campaign promises it’s easy to see the path the president is leading his base, and here is a sample of a reader’s comment from their coverage: “Our country is being invaded and the democrats are ignoring this crisis for the sole purpose of getting more people to vote for them. Tell me why its a good thing to have hundreds of thousands of unvetted people coming across our borders annually. Beside the huge cost the security risks are huge with the gang members, drug trafficers, (sic) human trafficers (sic) and even many from high risk mid eastern countries. Thank President Trump for looking out for Americans.”

And another: “It's a massive invasion on a sovereign country! Thank God you don't run the country!! no other country in the world would put up with assault on their border!! We owe the illegals nothing!! but we owe our hard working Taxpaying LEGAL citizens everything!! Its (sic) not our Responsibility to care of these unfortunate people! Its (sic) the responsibility of their government to offer basic needs and opportunity , to their own people!!! Hold them to it!! Shut the entire border down now!!! and maybe their corrupt and incompetent politicians will get the hint, or pay the consequences of their deliberate actions!!!!!!!!!!!”

What is not mentioned is that these asylum seekers are escaping gang violence, graft corruption, rape and other atrocities -- and that the American system of asylum is in need of desperate reform, and that closing the border would only increase the flow of illegal immigration, in the absence of the system, weakened or not..

In the space of a few days, the tone has changed, and “White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said the Trump administration sees Mexico “stepping up and taking a greater sense of responsibility” for dealing with the immigration flows that U.S. officials say are overwhelming ports of entry along the border.

“They have started to do a significant amount more. We’ve seen them take a larger number of individuals” and hold those who have asylum claims in Mexico while they are being processed in the United States, Sanders told reporters at the White House.

“We’ve also seen them stop more people from coming across the border so that they aren’t even entering into the United States. So those two things are certainly helpful and we’d like to see them continue,” Sanders said according to Reuters.

The softening of the more bellicose rhetoric that was heard last Friday included this tweet, from the president, ““After many years (decades), Mexico is apprehending large numbers of people at their Southern Border, mostly from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador.”

Sanders, as usual, has blamed the Democrats on Tuesday, in this clip from White House reporter April Ryan from American Urban Radio Networks.

In response, Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has cited the need for “prudence” and said he wasn’t going to get involved in what he characterized as U.S. “electoral” polemics.

“We are helping” to regulate the flow of U.S.-bound migrants, Lopez Obrador said on Monday, adding that he sought “a policy of friendship with the government of the United States.”

In a tweet his foreign minister said, “"Mexico does not act on the basis of threats," unquote. And there's also a pretty real chance that this kind of move could backfire because it would have dire economic consequences not only for Mexico, but on the U.S. side of the border as well.

After warnings about the damage to trade between the two countries - Mexico is the third largest trading partner with the U.S., including this from Mitch McConnell, Senate majority leader: “Closing down the border would have potentially catastrophic economic impact on our country, and I would hope we would not be doing that.”

Trump’s waffling has now evolved to this: he will give Mexico one year, before he uses drastic measures, meaning, shutting down the Southern border.

As most have acknowledged, immigration is a key issue with his base, and as we have seen earlier, the battle to retain the White House is of primary importance both for the president and GOP leaders, after spending eight years outside the gates.

Looking for a triple Trifecta to grip the base was the recent promise to destroy Obamacare, that has helped millions of American families and individuals gain much needed medical care, and in some cases, life saving surgery. And, while the record shows that the legislation needed adjustments, in key areas, such as widely varying premiums, it also shows that Republicans were unwilling to work with the Democrats to do so.

The Senate was aghast when the president announced that healthcare was on the table again, and Democrats were gleeful that they would have an opportunity to shame the White House, on an issue that brought them to victory in the midterms.

The GOP efforts in the past have proved unsuccessful for more than six years, with the effort between Sens. Cassidy and Graham, being the leading bomb in 2017, despite Republicans gleefully  chanting as they gutted the individual mandate.

Trump has based this on December’s ruling by Judge Reed O’Connor that if the individual mandate was removed then the whole act was unconstitutional, yet NBC news opined: “If you think that this [ruling] doesn’t make any sense, you’re right. First of all, as amended by Congress, there is no longer any “mandate” to purchase health insurance — consumers have the choice to carry insurance or pay... nothing. And the argument that, if the non-actually-existent “mandate” is unconstitutional, the entire bill must fall is even worse. According to O’Connor, Congress “intended” to preserve the original mandate because “knew that provision is essential to the ACA.”

While public opinion is split on the merits of the ACA, most of the provisions of the law are very popular, even among Republican voters, and repealing without replacing as Susan Collins, senator from Maine has said, is unacceptable, as is poulagating the se of high deductible plans, joined to tax-free health savings accounts, as set aside money for medical expenses.

Seeing the writing on the wall was McConnell who told Trump that the Senate would not attempt another repeal of the legislation until after the 2020 elections.