It's all in the mix for the May Jobs report

If all things were predictable there would be no need for last Friday’s Jobs Report from the US Department of Labor, but that clearly showed that despite expectations that there would be less jobs, in fact there were more, much more, 339,000 to be exact and that has given the White House joy, but more sleepless nights for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, as he wrestles with inflationary prices and employers that just keep on hiring.

Some salve to his battered nerves may be that unemployment has hit 3.7 percent the highest since October, showing that there is some slowdown in hiring, but is it enough? That might not be since adults at prime working age have barely changed over the last quarter.

Saying that the job market is tight is an understatement, saying that it is hot is closer to the truth, and employers are also being cautious, no major layoffs, and letting attrition reduce their workforce instead.

The Feds have raised interest rates for more than a year to cool the labor market and control prices, but we aren’t there yet; also, despite the Cassandras that have predicted an inevitable recession for the last several months, that seems to be in abeyance, though predictions of any accuracy are hard to state, at least with conviction.

The happy camper amidst all of the hand wringing is President Joe Biden, who in a statement issued from the White House, said: “Today is a good day for the America and American workers.”

It also serves to bolster his chances in the 2024 presidential election, as economic concerns are always at the core of many the average voter, despite a general misbelief that American presidents control the economy, and that the Federal Reserve Bank is a private bank.

There is sustained growth in education and health care, to the tune of 87,000 jobs; business services at 64,000 (though we find the term vague); government, including state and local at 56,000; and still growing is leisure and hospitality at 48,000, as Americans in the post Covid period have increased travel and dining out, leading us to wonder how many Covid era bread machines, pasta makers and espresso makers will gather dust in the nation’s cupboards.

For those that are the money folks, the good news is that accounting and bookkeeping have shot up to 64,000, and the outlier is construction at an increase of 25,000, somewhat of a surprise, because as The New York Times noted, “is sensitive to rising interest rates.”

They also reported that Tom Gimbel, founder and chief executive of LaSalle Network, a staffing and recruiting firm, saying, the “consensus seems to be . . . that the economy could continue to be strong for the next 24 to 30 months.”

That old bugaboo, labor force participation is little changed at 62.6 percent, and those prime earners don’t seem eager to look for work. Part of the reason, of course, is that as some edge closer to retirement age the pull for the daily grind is not as strong as it used to be,

It’s important to note that these reports are taken in the first two weeks of each month, and are subject to revision, and we have seen both March and April figures revised to 93,000.

Bad news for Black workers, still occupying most of the service jobs in the country, have an increased unemployment figure of 5.6 for May, countering the previous month’s decline, which we felt, in the final analysis, might be illusory.,

Overall, as in previous months  this report presents a mixed bag for even the most sanguine observer, and despite the weak points shows a sustained patterns, but to lowball it might be a mistake, and there are those low wage earners who see that  inflation can eat away at their wages, and some are predicting a decrease in wages that would cause some pain.

Wages were 0.3 percent last month, showing a slowdown from April, and this is an area that will be closely watched by Powell and the Federal Reserve.

DeSantis: The man, the myth, the candidate?

After much anticipation and credible hints, Gov. Ron De Santis of Florida announced his candidacy for the 2024 US presidential election last week, and despite some technical difficulties with the announcement on Twitter, hosted by supporter and ally owner Elon Musk, for some it seemed, but to his many supporters it was the herald of a new day,

To those who are opposed to him, often vehemently, it seemed akin to the devil appearing on social media. Somewhere between the unbridled praise and the hatred, there exists a middle ground, and to that there seems to be doubts if he would win the Republican nomination in a party that seems to be locked down by former President Donald Trump; and, who despite legal action for financial misdeeds, and a sexual assault conviction, he has legions of supporters.

This is the question that hangs in the balance: will the former president be able to maintain his lock on the party, or will it push him aside? In the absence of a crystal ball, we have the polls which show him with a resounding lead.

Then again, there are the “never Trumpers'' in a distant third, and unafraid to say they do not want him on the ticket, but as we all know as political pundits, this is a numbers game, and when the numbers are not there, the nomination is absent, or even once accepted, if so, on the ticket can voters keep a candidate there? We saw the fall with Hillary Clinton in 2016, on election night as the numbers fell, and fell downward.

We noted earlier that for many months DeSantis was at the top of the game of political expediency, taking every issue dear to his base to the 10th power. Anti Gay legislation, check; Anti Trans rights, check; anti drag shows, check; no library storytime at the public library gone; book banning, check, and the list grows on till the very public and nasty fight with Disney over its support of gay rights.

Then the standard issue rightist policy, guns allowed with no checks and regulation, and all seemed well, until his collaborating with Texas governor, Gregg Abbot, to ship migrants to the liberal stronghold and vacation of wealthy Democrats and liberals, Martha's Vineyard, but that barely seemed to make a dent, despite all of the moral censures and the dupe perpetuated by rogue agents to lure these vulnerable people to fate.

That seemed to have no effect.

The Hill reported last week of a recent poll from the University of California Berkeley's Institute of Government studies that said, “44 percent of the Golden States likely GOP primary voters said they supported Trump, while 26 percent said they supported De Santis, an 18 point lead for the former president.”

This was contrasted with three months prior when the former president “trailed De Santis by 8 points with 37 percent supporting De Santis.”

Of course, there are other GOP candidates, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who was also the UN Ambassador from the US, under Trump; former New Jersey governor, Chris Christie who seems untainted by Bridgegate; and Mike Pence, Trump’s vice president, expected to soon join the bandwagon this week, but with single digit polling, many are wondering what his chance of getting the nomination away from Trump, his former boss seem slim to none.

This may seem crowded to the uninitiated, but is actually quite normal in modern day presidential elections till they drop out, or get dropped, by events like the Iowa caucus, that defeated Clinton, and raised the profile of Barack Obama.

California, as The Hill noted, in recent reportage, has a plethora of “never Trumpers”, but noted that “his presence looks large with Republican voters feeling he is being treated unfairly in the courts and public opinion.”

Identifying who would support DeSantis was partly the task of the latest poll showing that they are largely men without college degrees, aged 50 to 64 years old, but there is some pushback by many who say that DeSantis is not charismatic, if that is a factor in the minds of voters.

Trump, on the other hands, whether admired or derided does have a strong charisma, or a brand, that is wholly his own as he gives a litany of those he ridicules, not just Democrats, not just liberals, but those he claims are not really Republican, ironic since he once was far more liberal on domestic issues, as he developed his real estate empire in New York City.

This has proved so strong that “66 percent discredited the results of the verdict,” in the trial of E. Jean Carroll in her sexuaL abuse case, and thought that it was motivated by political revenge.

Earlier polls even “showed that nearly half (45 percent) of GOP voters believed that Trump is ‘definitely’ the better Republican candidate to beat President Joe Biden next year.”

In an interview with Newsweek Patrick Murray, of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said, "DeSantis lost ground before he even got out of the starting gate.”