April Jobs Report: Rinse and repeat

The April Jobs Report issued on Friday from the US Dept. of Labor was a solid report that gave 177,000 non farm jobs, an unexpected jump from the 130,000 predicted, and with an unemployment rate of 4.2 holding steady it seemed to be a surprise to many observers, especially economists, and many US residents, most of whom were expecting a steep decrease with the news, for months, of federal job cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk; but, those numbers are not reflected in this report, since those cuts predated the April data collection.

If March’s report was the calm before the storm, then this is a continuation of the same, and most importantly with the “on again, off again” tariffs promulgated by President Trump in his series of economic injunctions by executive order, as his tool, and not through Congress, the future of the US economy remains uncertain. 

Indeed economic uncertainty has dominated the country for the last 100 days, and there have been steady predictions of financial doom, and fears of a recession; and, taking them in their entirety, there is just cause to worry, as the effects would be born by American consumers, especially lower income families who, as we noted last month, face increased expenditures of at least $1,200 each month.

Trump, however on Friday, reacting to the report, characteristically, remarked, “Just like I said, and we’re only in a TRANSITION STAGE, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down,” 

The Hill reported an anomaly cited by Trump when he added that “prices for gasoline and groceries were already far lower than federal and private-sector data shows.”

That aside, April showed consistency across key factors, such as labor force participation, racial and gender employment.

Areas that held strong were health care with an increase of 51,000; transportation and warehousing at 29,000; and, financial activities (a loosely defined category) with an increase of 14,000 job gains.

Especially notable was that there was no significant change in construction and manufacturing, coupled with LFP at 62.6 percent.

“Another stronger than expected jobs report is encouraging, although definitely not top of mind considering the ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and global trade,” Joe Gaffoglio, CEO and President at Mutual Of America Capital Management, wrote in a commentary, and reported by The Hill.

“While the labor market continues to be a bright spot, that could change quickly if the imposition of tariffs leads to disruptions in supply chains and global trade.”

Future tariffs, now, on Monday focusing on “foreign” made films, looming chaos for the American economy continues, but will also roil European markets, as well; and, with holiday retail buyers looking to fill the stores for the Christmas holiday, it is unlikely to be good news, especially since 80 percent of toys sold in America are made in China.

Trump has stated that girls may get two dolls instead of 30, this Christmas, and that they might cost more, scant consolation for parents, who are also facing higher housing costs, despite average wages for April coming in at $36.06, representing a 0.2 wage increase, and for the past year is up 3.8 percent, but, while that has kept up a solid pace overtaking inflation since mid 2023,” most working people do not feel positive about their future.

If perception is three tenths of the law, that wage increase may not mean much, and with many people believing that the American president controls and sets prices on groceries, and gasoline, the president may be in a crunch, and while his base has remained loyal, for the most part, recent polls show that between 52 and 53 percent of Americans believe that his handling of the economy is weakening their support.

Food prices are rising and a trip to even discount grocers show price increases, and the Dept. of Agriculture predicts that “food costs will rise faster than the historical average this year.” 

With many food imports coming from Mexico and other foreign markets, tariffs will increase those costs, especially for discount super markets such as Aldi, who rely on foreign imports.

As The New York Times stated, “The vast majority of data analysts say the eventual effect of President Trump's high tarriffs on the labor market will be fully appreciated in the weeks and months to come, Still, the early impact is reverberating through financial markets, global freight patterns and corporate business plans.”

Currently, and this is a qualifier, as Trump has shown in his previous administration, a propensity to change course, they include 145 percent tariffs on China and 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products not covered under the North American trade agreement.

There is a conundrum with the emphasis being on goods, yet the US economy is increasingly oriented “around services, which constitute about 70 percent of U.S. commercial activity,” said the Times, while noting that “good purchases still make up a major chunk if household spending, and more than 40 percent of U.S. manufacturers rely on imported parts or finished goods,” and we see this especially in the auto industry that has serious fears that their profits would be greatly diminished by the Trump tariffs.

The Times reported on Monday that, “The Trump administration has levied 25 percent tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts. It has raised tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which are used extensively in cars and trucks.”

Retaliatory tariffs are likely, and Ameicans can expect to pay more for a new car, and already there were long lines to buy new cars before the tariffs took effect, especially for foreign made vehicles which are 50 percent of those sold in the country.

The iconic American car maker Ford announced a profit loss, as reported by the Times, when they said, “Ford Motor said on Monday that the Trump administration’s tariff policies were likely to lower its 2025 profit, before interest and taxes, by about $1.5 billion. The company also dropped its forecast for the year, saying that predicting the future had become too hard.

Ford is less affected by President Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on vehicles than other automakers because most of the vehicles it sells in the United States are made in the country. General Motors said last week that the tariffs would increase its costs $4 billion to $5 billion this year.”

“This is a major shift in U.S. trade policy, especially as it affects trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico. For decades, cars and auto parts have been shipped across North America with little or no tariffs”, added the Times.

There is great fear “that consumers will cut back so aggressively that business will be forced to lay off workers, worsening the economic slowdown,” and with the triple digit tariffs on goods coming from China, a boon for lower income individuals and families, those bargain clothes, coming from Chinese companies such as Temu, Shein and AliExpress, increases affordability, as we noted in our March analysis, quoting an earlier news report, from the Times, acknowledging that while cheap Chinese goods do hurt American manufacturers, these lower priced goods, “are in effect a pay increase, leaving consumers with more money to spend on goods and services.”

The American consumer, the established driver of the economy, is already adjusting their buying habits, and a recent poll cited that 49 percent, nearly half of all Americans have “delayed or sped up purchases as a result. Those figures are far higher for Black (70 percent) and Latinor (71 percent) adults.”

While inflation has significantly lowered than in the past, it is slightly above what the Federal Reserve would like to see, at 2 percent, and core inflation for April was the lowest increase in nearly four years; and, as a reminder it strips out the most volatile components like gas, and energy, and is a key predictor for economists to track where inflation is headed.

Of equal concern is the contraction of the GDP last week to an annualized rate of -0.3 percent in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Dept. last Wednesday, the nation’s worst quarter since 2022, after Trump took office.

Trump blamed former President Joe Biden, saying that the US would have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang”, and that the decrease had nothing to do with the threat of tariffs, “only that he left us with bad numbers,” and urging Americans to be patient.

The Fed meets this week on May 7, and is unlikely to lower interest rates in lieu of this solid report, and will hold off any rate changes until there is less economic uncertainty; noting that current rates are holding steady at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent.

Again, the worst fear is that consumers will cut back “so aggressively that businesses will be forced to lay off workers, worsening the economic slowdown.”

Heads up for a boost in the December 2024 Jobs Report

The news is in, as of Friday, 256,000 non farm jobs were created for the month of December, an unexpected surprise for the United States economy, and a boon to to those in government, and for job seekers, Accompanying the good news is the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, giving solace to many, and support towards the soft landing that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell so long predicted, and hoped for.

Consistent with that news is the unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, and accompanied by the usual heavy hitters: leisure and hospitality, government, education, and construction giving weight to that old canard, a resilient American economy, which while overworked, seems to be the label that can best be applied to the current state of the world’s largest economy.

Factoring in the good news is that it is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve Bank will cut interest rates further than it already has, and as the Fed noted in mid December, “recent indications suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace,” and most importantly, ”The Committee seeks to achieve maxim employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.”

At that time they “decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by ⅓ percentage point to 4 to 1/4 point to 4 to ½ percent.”

Giving an overall look most economists feel that there is nothing wrong with this report, and President Joe Biden, in a statement from the White House, said, “Although I inherited the worst economic conditions in decades with unemployment over 6 percent when I took office we’ve had the lowest average unemployment rate of any administration in 50 years with unemployment at 4.1 percent as I have.”

As The New York Times notes, this report shows, “renewed vigor after months of caution among both workers and businesses.” 

Perhaps most significantly, and probably speaking for many economists, and observers, was Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at the banking firm Jefferies, who added to the Times report, "It is hard to say anything negative about the details of this report.”

Amidst the robust report there is the slight but statistically significant lower rate for women in the workforce to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 %, and in general for women’s employment increased to 57.4 %, and for Black women there was a decrease of unemployment to 5.4 %.

Consistent with that, the closely watched household survey was very strong and grew to nearly a quarter of a million people, with fewer people out of work over the last six months.

Close on the heels of that is the lowered jobless claims reported on Thursday, but there was both acknowledgement and a cautionary note reported by Yahoo Finance: [while] “ Simons said that ”there's a disconnect between labor demand and weekly jobless claims, plus, "A mentor of mine in the past always cautioned me, 'Don't try to predict employment with an unemployment statistic.'”

"Additionally, he points out that the figures don't fully capture businesses' reluctance to lay off workers due to concerns about future talent acquisition. However, he suggests this dynamic may shift and recommends monitoring the labor metrics of small businesses and startups,” for that fuller picture.

Encouraging was the Labor Force Participation Rate which for those aged 25 to 54 years old decreased to 83.4, capturing data for those working part time, and seeking full time work, or those not working, a half point lower than the 83.9 % than last year. These figures are the lowest since March, and looking at a four week average, and with data capturing points both high and low, their descent was by 3,500 to 232,250.

The heavy hitters ar as we have seen in previous months: Education and health care at 80,000; retail (may be a positive blip due to seasonal hiring) of 43,4000; leisure and hospitality at 43,000; government at 38,000, and business services, that catch all at 28,000; with weak link being manufacturing which showed a loss of 13,000, but may be attributed to weather conditions, as a few reports back there was an increase.

For Black women there was a significant decrease in unemployment and nbc4washington.com reported that, “For Black women, the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% in December. That is down from 5.9% in November, when the jobless rate rose nearly a percentage point for the cohort. The labor force participation rate, which tracks the population employed or seeking work, inched up to 62.4%..”

“Among Black workers overall, the unemployment rate also declined in December, slipping to 6.1%. That compares to a rate of 6.4% in November and 5.7% in October.”

"There were some concerns about the Black unemployment rate going up," said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, referring to November's uptick. "It's still significantly higher than for other groups — and that's still a concern — but nothing in this report jumps out as particularly problematic."

Associated Press reported that those receiving unemployment benefits “fell to their lowest level in nearly a year last week, pointing to a still healthy labor market with historically low layoffs.”

And, for that week, despite the cautionary notes, there was a “four week average of claims, which evens out the week to week ups and downs, fell by 10,250 to 213,000.”

Pulling the camera back a bit, we can see that through November U.S. employers added 180,000 jobs a month for 2024, but down from the “go go” year of 2023 when there were 231,000, but no one can say that this past year was bad by any means.

While a proxy for layoffs, the joblessness claims, AP noted, but also significantly reported, “those have remained below pre pandemic levels.”

The Labor Department report also showed that wages increased by 0.3 % over the month, giving a leg up on inflation, still not at the desired 2% mandate for the Federal Reserve.

Despite that mandate, and according to Bloomberg News, “Americans expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years, up from the 3% expected last month, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary January survey released Friday. They also see costs rising 3.3% over the next year, up 0.5 percentage point from December.”

“Nearly one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 24% in December and less than 2% prior to the election,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “These consumers generally report that tariff hikes will pass through to consumers in the form of higher prices.”

“Inflation expectations climbed across many demographic groups, particularly lower-income Americans. More concerning, 22% of respondents reported that buying big-ticket goods now would enable them to avoid future price hikes. That matches the prior month as the highest since 1990, the report showed.”

Before we dive into the political angles and there are many, a quick note about retail figures, they are showing also as a predictor of permanent employment, since they often are the pathway for permanent employment; but, this might be conjecture on some observers who state that women with less than 2 years of post secondary education may be headed for a loss, while that may be getting ahead of ourselves since we have seen an increase in employment for women, and the question may hinge on future efforts by the incoming administration of Donald Trump.

As we wrote last month, “The elephant in the room are the proposed tariffs of 25 percent, on Canada, Mexico, and even higher for China, and has been widely reported to have a detrimental effect on the US economy, and consumer buying which is the bedrock of the American economy. 

Suggestions that these are negotiating tools for Trump are, at this point speculation, but definitely a cause for concern.  If the so-called DOGE efforts at reducing government waste, a laudable goal, but if it includes layoffs, those could have a detrimental effect on national employment.”

Another facet is that Trump, no fan of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will try to fire him, not technically possible as the Fed operates independently of the presidency, but the recent resignation of Vice President of Supervision Michael Barr to prevent what he felt would be the new administration to keep the Fed from being politicized, or to use the vernacular, he saw a target on his back.

“I strongly value the independence of the Fed,” Barr told POLITICO on Monday shortly after he announced his plans to resign as vice chair of supervision. He said he chose to quit as vice chair — while maintaining his seat as a Fed governor — because he “was worried that the risk of a dispute over the position would end up being a political distraction for the Federal Reserve and for me, and that that would end up detracting from our ability to serve our mission.”

While Trump has never publicly commented on the Barr resignation, or any intentions at weakening the independence of the Fed, there were discussions during the campaign, and as Politico noted:

“Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump advisers and allies floated several ideas as to how he might blunt the Fed’s independence in his second term. Stephen Miran, Trump’s pick to lead the Council of Economic Advisers, and Dan Katz, who’s slated to be chief of staff at Treasury, published a paper calling for changes that would allow the president to dismiss Fed governors at will. Trump’s Treasury nominee Scott Bessent proposed appointing a “shadow Fed chair” to provide forward guidance on rates while Powell serves out his term as chair. (That idea has already been abandoned.).”

While there is some disagreement among academics on how weakening the independence of the Fed could work, it's clear, that for some, it’s all over but for the fighting, according to an old expression from the American South.

USA Strong as September Jobs show strength

It’s been a gamut of reactions on the American economy over the last few years as the country faced down the realities of the COVID pandemic, and the September Jobs Report from the United States Labor Department has given a longer more nuanced look at the world’s first economy, and has shown what can only be seen as, dare we say it, resilient; but, perhaps the best evaluation is strong, as the US economy added 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the 150,000 expected, and it has also proved to be a pivotal move for future movements from the Federal Reserve Bank as it further calibrates interest rates.

The report also moves the idea of a recession further away from the naysayers who much like Cassandra of mythology, have erroneously predicted a pending recession, often told to us, as we have reported before, in hushed tones, often over fresh produce in the supermarket, or on the crosstown bus.

Those fears allayed, and hopefully put to rest, but this strength has given a push to the waning days of the Biden administration, and also a major push towards the candidacy of Kamala Harris, the Democratic contender for the presidency, and against her rival former President Donald Trump, who in a number of polls has held an edge in how potential voters feel about who has the economic strength in handling an economy once burdened by the pandemic and the subsequent supply chain bottleneck that kept supplies from everything from diapers to blenders on backorder. 

Nevermind the fact that presidents have little control over the economy as a free market economy like the US tends to self regulate, or as early undergraduates may remember: the legendary “unseen hand”; Adam Smith anyone?

President Biden in a statement from the White House said that, “with today’s report, we’ve created 16 million jobs, unemployment remains low, and wages are growing faster than prices,” but most importantly, “Under my Administration, unemployment has been the lowest in 50 years, a record 19 million new business have been created, and inflation and interest rates are falling.”.

An unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, underscores the historic record quoted by Biden, and with 7,000 jobs in September, but up from 137,000 since the pandemic.

“It’s an incredible number,” said Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG humorously reported, and added, “The labor market is apparently not cooling as rapidly as we thought. It’s either the most magnificent soft landing we have ever achieved or there is going to be some further consternation about how sustained this can be.”

Another keypoint is that Black unemployment has decreased to 5.7 percent, considered as The New York Times reported, a bellwether for employment, since they are the last to be hired, and the first to be fired.

According to The New York Times, “By several measures, the job market is historically strong. People in their prime working years of 25 to 54 are employed at a rate previously seen only in the early 2000s. Average hourly earnings are strong — and climbing — even when adjusted for inflation. Women in their peak working ages are participating in the labor market at the highest levels on record.”

Wages are now up 4 percent from a year ago, now outpacing the rising prices, but as has been reported inflation has gone down, but there is some suspicion that larger grocers, in particular, have depended on consumers used to paying higher prices to continue to do so, now that the die has been cast.

Nevertheless, “That means buying power is slowly being restored,” said Mark Hanrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst. But, as the old adage states, perception is one tenth of the law, and , saying that 40% of Americans are dissatisfied with the economy.

Taking a stronger stance was Heather Boushey with the Council of Economic Advisers, who said, “This is the kind of strong, steady pace that is delivering for people all across the country., and added, “You continue to see evidence that this remains a strong and healthy but not too fast, not too hot economy.”

As seen in prior reports the heavy hitters are still restaurants and bars, as well as construction that has continued its upward climb, a move that Boushey attributes to the Biden administration's prioritization of infrastructure semi conductors and clean energy that has resulted in 25,000 new construction jobs.

Labor force participation has hit 62.7 percent for peak aged workers those aged 25 to 54 years old.

The numbers reflect this reality: Healthcare along with education at 81,000; Leisure and Hospitality at 78,000; at 31,000; and Construction at 25,000.

For the Federal Reserve, it's’ unlikely at its next meeting, in November, that we are going to see significant cuts as it has calibrated these in a series of long running data point decisions; and,earlier with former Chair Janet Yellen who told the Wall Street Journal in 2015, “My own preference would be able to proceed and tighten in a prudent and gradual manner,” and with the current Chair Jerome Powell, who told reporters last week, “Our design overall is to achieve disinflation down to 2 percent without other kinds of painful increase in unemployment that has often come with disinflation processes”, and emphasized, “We haven’t completed that task.”

DNC in Chicago: Introducing Kamala Harris

On Monday the Democratic National Convention is coming to town, and that town is Chicago, with its beautiful lakefront, architecturally significant buildings and a myriad of entertainment venues for almost every taste, and interest. It is also, of course, the moment of recognition of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrats introduce her to the nation as the successor to President Joe Biden who stood down in his own candidacy at the end of July.

Her campaign has energized the Democrats changing the tenor of the November presidential campaign from one of anxiety to one of dynamic energy, and in the near 30 days with her transition and nomination as candidate there have been untold dollars pouring into her campaign, and has also brought not only renewal to the party, but also for the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, a real game change that has thrown him off guard, forcing him to take the lead, since it was built in an elaborate scheme to denigrate Biden; and, decry not only his policies, but also to cast him as old, and out of touch, not to mention corrupt, along with his son Hunter, and other family members.

Now that plan is in shambles.

Trump, now, is the one that looks old, and corrupt, with his 34 felony counts, his numerous schemes of tax evasion, his sexual impropriety, and of course, the thousands of lies that he has shared in social media, in his infamous debate with Biden, and incoherent press conferences, not to mention the false remarks he made about Harris’ racial identity at the recent Chicago meeting of the National Association of Black Journalists.

The once popular media slogan, “his to lose” has lost its luster as Harris steps up to the plate armed with a reformed agenda, built from the Biden administration, but adapted to her own, and her party’s re-identification, is not one not so easily dismissed by the GOP, and its companion megaphone at Fox news have tried to do.

The meteoric rise of Harris, in such a short space, has not allowed her to spell out specific policies, or a broad platform, as her predecessors have done, with the exception of economics, but both the short timeline as well as the momentous energy that she has harnessed has also worked in her favor, avoiding the pitfalls of revealing too much, and allowing the energy and extent to build her up, is both deliberate and well calculated.

One major issue that she will face, along with increased demonstrations, expected to be large, perhaps spilling outside of the physical confines that Chicago city attorneys have carved out, is the war in Gaza, and the increased anger generated from the long standing alliance between the United States and its chief ally, Israel.

It will be a hard direction to shift with the death of nearly 40,000 Palestinians, the bombings by Israeli warplanes and the thousands of people, especially women and children whose suffering is seen nearly daily on network television stations, as well as news websites. And, the recent bombing of a school by Israel has generated outrage from many in the US, from Palestinian Americans, fellow Muslims, and their allies, as the death toll mounts.

“Just hours after the Biden administration Friday announced approval of $3.5 billion in military funds for Israel and shipments for new weaponry, an Israeli bombing of a school-turned-shelter in Gaza has killed 100 people or more, including scores of civilian men, women, and children in what was described as a "bloody massacre" that struck during morning prayers, leaving body parts scattered "in pieces" and healthcare workers overwhelmed with the dead and wounded,” reported commondreams.org

Our email inbox has been flooded with press releases showing their contempt for Biden, as well as Harris, and perhaps no other issue can define what needs to be a turning point in her favor.

One press statement from Revcom Corps Chicago accompanying its calendar of protests and demonstrations said: “As Bob Avakian has pointed out This is not a time to be siding with one group of oppressors or another. This is a rare time—a very rare opening—a chance that may come only once in a lifetime—a chance to take advantage of the deep divisions among the ruling oppressors and go after their whole system, with the aim of bringing the whole thing down, and putting something much better in its place.”

Harris also has to face economic proposals to what, even if she wins, could face opposition in an unchanged House and a very slim majority in the Senate, unless those races, mostly in swing states, are successful to give her an edge in Congress, because a president may propose, but Congress disposes.

One plan released in North Carolina on Friday during a campaign stop outlined a major effort to help the middle class but received some criticism from The Washington Post, but was defended by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.

The Hill reported that, “Harris outlined a series of economic policy proposals and “she called for a federal ban on corporate price-gouging. CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Jeffries on “State of the Union” whether he backed her plan to ban price-gouging.”

“Kamala Harris has articulated a very important plan to make sure that we are lowering costs for everyday Americans, that we are ending price gouging throughout the country, and that, of course, we are growing the middle class and making sure that everyday Americans can get ahead. So, we, as House Democrats, look forward to working with Kamala Harris to drive costs down,” Jeffries said on CNN

“The Washington Post editorial board hit Harris over her newly announced economic agenda on Friday, characterizing the plan as “populist gimmicks.”

“Vice President Kamala Harris’s speech Friday was an opportunity to get specific with voters about how a Harris presidency would manage an economy that many feel is not working well for them,” the board wrote in an editorial Friday. “Unfortunately, instead of delivering a substantial plan, she squandered the moment on populist gimmicks.”

Jeffries’ careful response centered on the pandemic, the Jan 6 riots as inherited by the Biden administration, and defended the vice president on what was a clear indication of work to do.

It’s also quite clear that not releasing a comprehensive platform was wise by the Harris campaign. But, this partial glimpse does give a sense of her priorities, and centering them on the middle class is a wise move considering the struggle that many have, even with wages that have exceeded inflation; and, in particular “proposing $25,000 in down payment help for certain first time homeowners and tax incentives for builders iof starter homes, as the Associated Press reported on Friday will garner more attention.

Not surprising is the reaction from the Trumpers, who were rife with criticism, and “Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes calling her plan representative of “the most socialist and authoritarian model,” added  the AP.

Rounding out the list of major issues is immigration, and migration, especially for those asylum seekers, the majority form Venezuela, who have been abused since 2021 by Southern governors, notably Greg Abbott of Texas.

With no legislative action by Congress since the 1980s and Trump ordering Republican lawmakers not to work on a recent bipartisan immigration deal, the fate of many has hung in the balance, and the border crisis, albeit with slower border crossings, has become a cause celebre for the GOP and Harris has received condemnation for being the “Border Czar” even though she never held that title and was tasked only by Biden with identifying root causes.

Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, previously considered as her running mate, told  CBS “Face the Nation” that he has every confidence in a Harris presidency to reform the system.

A recent proposal by the Biden administration titled “Parole In Place” has launched through the Department of Homeland Security, offers legal status to undocumented people married to Americans without the necessity of returning to their home countries, and possibly, under older terms, denied re entry.

It eventually can lead to citizenship if all conditions are met, but a Harris win can only use this as part of a multi pronged attempt to give balance to hundreds of thousands of those seeking asylum from violence plagued, and corrupt countries, and seeking refuge in the United States.

This, and other proposals, legislation and executive action will be some heavy lifting for Harris, if she wins, but also along with economics, could prove, if successful, to be a major legislative win for her administration.

Harris’ appearance will be bolstered by some heavy hitters this week, among them Biden on opening night in a farewell tribute to his long legislative leadership, as well as former President Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton; and security is tight with more than 500 police from various neighboring states as well as the Illinois National Guard.

Memories have bypassed the successful and peaceful 1996 Chicago DNC that nominated Bill Clinton, and most residents, and media, have focused on the infamous events of the 1968 convention, but as Chicago Police Chief Larry Snelling has said, “The Chicago Police Department does a great job of working through events like this will be no different.”

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Biden out, Kamala Harris in

Sunday’s announcement from the White House in a letter from the White House, posted on the social media platform X from President Joe Biden that he was going to stand down from being a candidate for the presidency in the 2024 election left most people in the United States thunderstruck, especially after saying for weeks that he was going to stay, and notably at a recent rally in Detroit where there was a roaring approval from the crowd.

For many, especially his supporters in Chicago, there was a sense of disbelief and sadness, and a distinct feeling that Biden was being pushed out, especially from the donor class, led by actor George Clooney, who had been a prominent fundraiser, but also from Democratic leadership, such as former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, coupled with a raft of major newspapers, most notably The New York Times, who in an editorial, said that he needed to step down, due to his age, and surprisingly also a reliable supporter, The Washington Post. 

Whether it was this growing chorus, or that coffers were being closed, and depriving him of the needed money for his campaign, or advice from his family, the latter which is unknown, the decision was made after months of criticism and wariness of his age, 81, and especially of his mental acuity, after a dismal debate performance with former President Donald Trump, where suffering from a bad cold and two overseas trips, he seemingly lost his train of thought, and did not give the succinct answers his supporters expected.

It’s not necessarily a surprise to see this concern, because many people had told us of it, and added unfounded claims of senility, or Alzheimer's, the die was cast, and the pressures, in combination with the above, led to his withdrawal.

What he did next, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate was not only expected but hoped for, and the reaction among many of their leadership was a wholesale endorsement, with the notable exception of former President Barack Obama, has energized Democrats and the money has poured in, to the tune of $231 million dollars in less than a day.

Harris herself, while the obvious choice for a replacement does face considerable obstacles, number one being a woman, in a country, rare in the Western World, that has not had a female head of state, but also being a racial minority, with an Indian born mother and a Jamaican father, and who identifies as a Black American, and one who brings considerable background as an attorney general for California and also as a District Attorney, plus three and a half years as vice president.

For political baggage she has the role as intercessor for the crisis at the Southern Border, and is already being beaten about the head by Republicans, as the “Border Czar,” a false title, but nevertheless a convenient smear, since immigration is the leading issue for the GOP, and a signature part of any Trump speech, and he has been widely reported saying that immigrants are “poisoning the blood”of Americans, violent crime, false claims of illegal voting, and a host of unwarranted social ills.

In August the Democrats will hold their convention in Chicago, and at stake is an open, if not brokered convention, the former which last happened in the same city in 1968. But, as of Monday it was reported that Harris had a clear majority of delegates to clinch the nomination, and she needs 1,976 pledged delegates and she has far exceeded that number.

In a statement released from her campaign late on Monday, she said, “Tonight, I am proud to have secured broad support needed to become our party’s nominee, and as a daughter of California, I am proud that my home state’s delegation helped put our campaign over the top. I look forward to formally accepting the nomination soon.”

Obama has indicated that he wants an open primary versus a political anointing, and with the money and the endorsements pouring in might be tempting; but, since the primary votes to Biden are not automatically granted to Harris, there may be some type of political horse trading to be done.

Harris has also received a vast array of endorsements from lawmakers across the country, and all of the Democratic governors have given their support, among them, Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, Wes Moore, Roy Cooper, Gretchen Whitmer, and Mark Warner.

Meanwhile the Trump campaign is in seeming tatters as they based their entire campaign on fighting Biden and now have become increasingly concerned about Harris, and her roles in public service, in two prominent roles, and the vice presidency and her reputation as a prosecutor, and with sharp elbows has caused Trump to say he will not debate her in September, in what many of her supporters have told us, “would make mincemeat out of him.”

There are questions that the Republicans might mount a legal challenge to the Harris candidacy, but some legal and government voices have said that won't happen.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, in particular has expressed his doubts about the legality of Harris appearing on the ballot, citing state rules, and along with other GOP officials has threatened to take Democrats to court, but legal opinion says that there's no standing for that effort, and Axios quoted Ben Ginsberg, “an attorney who has long represented Republicans,” who said," There's nothing to the these threats, a convention naming a candidate who then gets ballot placement in every state is the normal course of business.”

No one candidate is the official nominee, until there is a vote, wrote legal scholar Rick Hansen in his op-ed piece for slate.com on Monday.

The most emphatic “no” was from Democratic attorney, Marc Elias who told MSNBC, “There is a zero, point, zero, zero, zero percent that Mike Johnson and his fever dream, of somehow there being legal action to prevent Kamala Harris . . . to keep [her] off the ballot, there is no chance that will happen.”

This is a developing story

Trump shooting is rooted in a violent America

 

In the aftermath of Saturday’s attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the wide ranging and sincere comments from lawmaker and pundits was that political violence had no place in American life, and while that may be true, to at least the acceptance of that specific event, American history is replete with political violence stretching back to the killing of Alexander Hamilton by Aaron Burr, in 1804, the caning of abolitionist Senator Charles Sumner in 1856, the shooting that felled President Garfield in 1881, Abraham Lincoln in 1865,the shooting of Theodore Roosevelt in 1912,  the assassination of of John F. Kennedy in 1963, Bobby Kennedy in 1968, the shooting of Ronald Reagan in 1981, and of Congresswoman Gabby Gifford in 2011,Congressman Steve Scalise in 2017, and the physical assault in 2022 on Paul Pelosi the husband of the then Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, but intended for her.

As a nation, America is awash in blood, but not only for politicians but also for hundreds of everyday citizens victims of domestic violence, street gangs, urban warfare, not to mention the killings at Columbine, Marjory Stoneman Doulgas High School, and Sandy Hook, and Las Vegas, and Highland Park Illinois, to name but a few of mass killings.

The image of a bloodied Trump, after a bullet pierced his ear, has now become an iconic image and cements his stature as a martyr, and one that he has always portrayed himself as, if not a victim.

Taking a step back we have to remember that he has told so many lies about the mundane, for example how many people showed up at his inauguration, claiming more than that of Barack Obama, to embracing the deep state conspiracy, aided by such figures as Marjorie Taylor Greene, and that Mexico was sending rapists to American shores, ostensibly as immigrants; migrants being put up in luxury hotels by New York city administration officials, to the dangerous, that ingesting bleach could “cure” the Covid virus.

The fact that so many people have embraced these lies, and the very danger that has incited people to the attack on the US Capitol on January 6th speaks volumes of what has become the Big Lie, that Joe Biden was not the lawfully elected president of the United States.

The rhetoric, along with the lies that has been so incendiary it’s frightening to hear people say that the off the cuff remark by Biden that he had Trump in his target like a bullseye, and that helped fuel the gunman that fired off rounds in rural Western Pennsylvania is incalculably false.

Facing the inherent danger of falsehoods now gives rise to sympathy for the shooting, but it will soon be back to the accusations, and the grandstanding that has become part of not simply American politicking, but the 21st century tenor of life in America.

The incendiary comments of Trump, now aided by his vice presidential candidate JD Vance, a junior senator from Ohio, whose earlier remarks blaming Democrats for the shooting (along with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson) has fueled the falsehoods Trump, and who are now making statements to turn down the political rhetoric seems ironic.

Vance said on social media, “The central promise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” and “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Against this background was, and which may possibly resurface, the media driven attempt to get Biden to stand down as a candidate for the November election, and to find someone younger, and possibly dynamic, from the ranks of younger lawmakers, and while we’ve noted the difficult of vetting presidential candidates, most of whom have never faced such close scrutiny, and among them is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer herself the target of a far right wing group planning to kidnap her, and who held Trump as a hero.

The threat of a brokered convention in Chicago, is about as concerning as it is for a repeat of the violent suppression of demonstrators at the 1968 Democratic Convention, in an already overheated atmosphere that again could possibly be violent. 

What is now seen are two elders battling it out for a change, or a sustained democracy, and one not only of the values espoused or the future of the nation, but its soul.