April Jobs Report: Resilient for now

In one of those economic surprises, or the ever circuitous path that the American economy has taken in recent years, on Friday the US Dept of Labor released its monthly job data for April revealing 115,000 non-farm jobs, much to the surprise of economists who expected at least half of that figure showing that the American jobs picture is still resilient. And, if that seems to be a hackneyed label, then so be it say a range of not only economists, but academics, market watchers, and others.

CNBC in its coverage said, “The report shows the labor market has been “pretty much stable for a year, year and a half,” Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve of Chicago, said in a CNBC interview. “I characterize that we’ve been stable without being good. ... The unemployment rate has been stable, the hiring rate’s been stable, the layoff rate’s been stable, the vacancy rate has been stable. So, I still think there’s not a lot of evidence that the job market is falling apart.”

While it cheered the White House and other administration officials, to others it still seemed to be a cautious praise at best, with higher than sough inflation, and the effects that the War on Iran, and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz which has hampered the delivery of 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas resulting in an average per gallon price of gasoline at $4.59 per gallon in the United States.

During his State of the Union address, President Trump declared that America under his leadership was “bigger, better, richer, and stronger” and created a “booming economy” now words that he may regret saying, especially with his polls tanking, those efforts will undoubtedly be on the way. 

The Associated Press-NORC-Center for Public Affairs recently reported that his support in the GOP fell from 74 percent to 62 percent in April, a stark figure among his base of support. Adding to that, 61 percent of Americans do not support the US in its war against Iran. A devolution in his handling of the economy is not far behind, especially with 80 percent of Americans feeling the price squeeze at the gas pump.

While wages increased to 3.6 percent, Americans are now forced to spend much of that increase on gasoline, especially those people who live in areas where public transportation is scarce; and, add to that the spectre of even higher food costs due to increased transportation costs, then the results for many Americans  may be burdensome, especially lower income individuals and families as they struggle to meet higher housing costs in a country that has not created enough of them.

Of equal concern is that job increases may not meet population growth as we reported in April, and where some demographers have said the nation has fallen behind, 

While the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent it could have been higher had not some people simply given up looking for work in a challenging environment, especially for those without college degrees.

A conundrum is that consumers are still spending, and while they are the economic drivers of the national economy the reasons for their continuance bear examining; or,one case, higher than average tax returns are one cause, interest rate cuts by the Fed last year are another, and, lastly, is that high income earners are still spending, it supports the often quoted K shaped economy. But economists say that might not last forever, and if consumers continue to cut back on spending to afford fuel, the consequences, according to Investopedia, would cause “a ripple effect  that hurts the job market. Some forecasters unemployment to rise as soon as this summer.”

Overall, this is an economy that has its visible markers, as well as its less visible ones, notably that job creation has consistently been higher in the small business community, commonly referred by some as the “Mom and Pop” market, where recent analysis has shown that  for companies with less than 20 employees they have created more than 525,000 jobs in 2025; and in January through March 169,000 jobs, a figure greater than by larger employers.

The recent back and forth on a resolution to end the conflict in Iran has caused the markets to go from high to low, often in less than 24 hours; a figure that some observers are attributing to President Trump’s vacillating remarks that the war is over, and there is another resolution pending, but then, also saying that there is no Iranian leadership to negotiate with; all of which has made the market indices seasick trying to keep up.

One prominent feature of the last several months of job reports is the dominance of health care related jobs, attributable to the aging of America, and the needs of the so called “baby boomers” whose longevity requires consistent care. As has been noted, economic observers are wondering of the precariousness of the jobs outlook where one industry dominates all the others. For April this dominance resulted in a gain of 37,000 jobs.

Likewise social assistance of 17,000 jobs gained and attendant home health care of 11,000. Common knowledge dictates this as a historical legacy but its dominance could cut into future gains, or losses for other industries.

On the down side is the continuing loss of federal workers, begun last year at the beginning of the second Trump administration, now with 9,000 additional jobs cut.

On the corporate side, cuts have been rampant lately with those at META, and now the bankrupt Spirit Airlines.

The news that Meta plans to cut approximately 10% of its workforce—roughly 8,000 employees—starting May 20, 2026, “alongside 6,000 open role closures to fund massive AI investments” according to the New York Times CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who deemed 2026 "the year that AI starts to dramatically change the way that we work," expects to offset high infrastructure investment costs while driving efficiencies.

“Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, has said he expects much of the work done in the technology industry to eventually be overtaken by A.I.-powered systems, including coding assistants that help engineers write software.”

“We’re doing this as part of our continued effort to run the company more efficiently and to allow us to offset the other investments we’re making,” Janelle Gale, Meta’s chief people officer, said in the memo to employees. “This is not an easy trade-off and it will mean letting go of people who have made meaningful contributions to Meta during their time here.”

Tech and other informational services have been on the downswing for some time and the April report shows this is a continuing trend with a loss of 13,000, and telecommunications another 3,000.

While the effects of the two months of war with Iran has only slightly affected the US, despite the higher gas prices, the resulting effect on the global economy has been harsh: “The fallout from two months of war in Iran is shuttering textile mills in India and Bangladesh, grounding airplanes in Ireland, Poland and Germany, and prompting energy rationing in Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand. The only country, it seems, that has been relatively spared from the economic chaos is the one that started the war: the United States,” also reported by The New York Times.

“While warning signs of a recession are flashing across countries in Asia and Europe, the United States is likely to outperform most of the world’s advanced economies. Growth is steady and unemployment low. “It’s still hard to bet against the U.S. economy,” the Royal Bank of Canada said last week.”

If the aggression lasts much longer then the effect on US jobs market will increase, despite the repeal of most of the Trump tariffs from the recent decision from the US Supreme Court; but, with recent threats on Spain for not supporting the administration's efforts to open the Strait, an area freight with danger, tariffs will once more be a factor facing American companies, and in turn consumers.

“Economists say it would take a much more significant spike in oil prices, perhaps as high as $150 a barrel, for them to begin worrying seriously about the possibility of a recession in the United States.

That is not the case elsewhere, where the dreaded combination of slower growth and higher inflation is already raising alarms about stagflation.”

Are we safe? Maybe, say some, again from the Times: “For the United States, the biggest advantage is that, unlike most of its global peers, it produces more oil and gas than it consumes. That doesn’t mean it is unaffected by what happens in global energy markets, but it helps dampen the impact.”

Most importantly, “The U.S. economy is also heavily based on services and depends relatively little on the energy-intensive manufacturing industries that have been hit hardest by the spike in oil prices. And it went into the war with a stronger economy than many other countries, giving it more of a buffer against a slowdown.

“We’re not feeling the same pain the rest of the world is,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Others are not so sanguine citing the cost of diesel fuel which as the Times also noted, in late March, is less discernible to the average consumer but whose price has climbed faster than the price of gasoline which could lead “to inflation across a wide range of goods” affecting the price and shipping of those products that most Americans rely on.

“Diesel “powers a lot of basic industries,” said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University’s business school whose research focuses on supply chains. “Mining industries, chemical factories, clothing factories — a lot of those things come from diesel.”

“Because of its far-reaching consequences, it can stop a lot of industries,” she said, adding that if prices continue to rise, consumers will probably begin to see the effects on everyday items and necessities within the next several weeks.”

“Much of the diesel in the United States comes from domestic supplies. But oil companies can still price the commodity at global market rates. In January, a little more than 40 percent of the cost of diesel came from the price of crude oil, according to the Energy Information Administration” making things even murkier for consumers as time goes by without an end to the conflict.

Spirit Airlines shut down last  Saturday “after failing to strike a deal for a financial lifeline from the Trump administration, two people familiar with the matter said,” according to The New York Times.

For air travelers, looking for a no frills trip with low ticket costs, they had it but also faced charges for nearly everything to balance the fares, they succumbed to “high fuel prices, competition from larger airlines, the Covid-19 pandemic and an engine defect hobbled the company.

In recent weeks, “the airline had been negotiating a $500 million lifeline from the Trump administration. Some of the investors that Spirit owed money to oppose the terms of the bailout, under which the government could have ended up owning 90 percent of Spirit, because it would have left them in a worse financial position if the airline eventually failed.”

4,000 employees in Florida alone are now without jobs, with almost 1,000 employees laid off from Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston airports, plus more in Detroit, with rough estimates of a total of 17,000 ending an era, but also a model that was not working in post pandemic America. 

“Spirit has been widely credited with democratizing air travel in the United States by keeping costs and ticket prices very low. The approach served Spirit well for years, generating huge profits. But competition from larger airlines and rising costs, particularly for pilots and other professionals, hobbled the company after the pandemic. It also suffered disproportionately from industry wide engine problems,” noted the Times.

Meanwhile that old bugaboo, inflation - is still a large concern as has been widely noted, and the Federal Reserve Bank has kept interest rates the same in light of the 3.8 inflation rate, much higher than its 2 percent target, 

While Jerome Powell’s term as head, ends in a few days, the nominee by the president, Kevin Warsh is expected to have Senate approval, and is expected to cut interest rates, since while “the Fed cut rates last year, it did not deliver the kind of relief that Mr. Trump wanted. Since January, it has also turned cautious on subsequent reductions, a sentiment that has only grown amid the war in Iran, which has caused an acute energy shock,” said the Times.

It’s no secret that Trump wants stronger cuts and is determined to influence the Fed from the White House, threatening its traditional independence hinged by mandates on low inflation and job stability, which was threatened by the false charges of cost overruns attributed to Powell at the headquarters building.

Warsh has said if approved there is the chance that he would do so, besides his statement that he would not be the president’s “sock puppet”. Critics and Capitol Hill observers worry that should be stray from the president’s wishes this could be a repeat scenario “according to Peter Conti-Brown, an expert on Fed governance at the University of Pennsylvania, said Mr. Powell’s insistence on a clear, certain end to the investigation was about “not just about protecting himself but about protecting the Federal Reserve.”

“If this becomes a tried-and-true path to bully a central banker out of office, then we will see its invocation again,” said Mr. Conti-Brown, who added that the investigation had already proved damaging in other ways.”

March Jobs Report: Optimism or despair?

Now that the Passover and Easter holidays are over, it’s time to take a closer look at the March jobs report and its surprising report from the US Dept of labor that showed 178,000 non-farm jobs, a figure that far exceeded expectations, and predictions marry that to the previous month’s heavy hitters of health care, as well as a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent, it seems that there might have been a rebound from earlier worrisome reports, yet a closer look under the hood shows a different view.

One of the chief concerns is the lowered rate of job participation, and while the BLS deems it negligible,  - 61.9 % - but economists are watching the figure and see that the downward trend is concerning, the less people working, or giving up looking the less the match to population growth and the formula that economists examine to determine the health of the US economy.

“The unemployment rate dropped, but for the wrong reasons: a loss in labor force participation,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG told Fortune. The declines were concentrated among prime working-age men (twenties to thirties); young women between ages 20 and 24; and men over 55. In other words, the unemployment rate fell not because people found work, but because they became discouraged and stopped looking.”

Add to that the deportation of undocumented workers by the Trump administration and the uncertainty regarding judicial oversight, things don’t seem as rosy as they seem, But, a single report does not hold significance for macro economists, since there is the rule of three reports to accurately predict future concerns.

And, as is BLS custom, all reports are subject to revision as we saw with February that gave a few concerns with its decrease of 133,000, among economists, as well as lawmakers.

One surprise was that construction added 26,000 people to their payrolls and while much of this gain was due to project specific contracts, it is still far less than it has been in the past.

Much of this increase has been attributed to the policies of President Trump, and campaign promises, but this is unclear as of this date.

Federal employment has continued its downward spiral after the DOGE decimation of last year, now down to 355,000 or 11.8 percent, yet there are unverified reports that there are efforts to increase hiring.

Taken together with the threats of AI in the workforce, especially for some programmers, that is a matter of controversy with wildly fluctuating reports varying from total elimination of some jobs, entry-level and white-collar, to the retraining of others.

Forbes noted that, “The pressing question is, ‘You’re going to have a technological shock — how painful is it going to be?” Martha Gimbel, the executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale University, told the [New York] Times."

“At this point, no one knows. Maybe it will be far less than some of the high estimates thrown about. What investors, workers, and the country at large have to realize is there is a risk of unknown size that could further undermine the labor market, also known as the ability of people to make money and live.”

There are a few groups of workers that are vulnerable in today’s job climate: younger workers, those under 25 years of age, especially recent college graduates, and Black and Asian workers.

Taking a rear view look at the beginning of the year, “Through February, employers announced 156,742 job cuts, the lowest January-to-February total since 2022, when 34,309 cuts were recorded in the first two months of the year. It is the fifth-highest January-February total since 2009.”

“February’s dip is a nice reprieve from the elevated job cut plans to start the year. With U.S. involvement in a growing war in Iran, the end of Q1 may bring more layoff plans as companies tighten belts amid uncertainty and higher costs,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas,” in their statements posted on their website.

In a forecast for the future, based on their prior analysis, “Hiring plans rose 140% in February to 12,755 from 5,306 in January. They are down 63% from the 34,580 hiring plans in February 2025. So far this year, employers have announced plans to hire 18,061, down 56% from 40,669 new hires during the same period in 2025.”

Wages increased by 0.2 percent after reaching 0.4 percent in February, and further decreases with higher inflation dependending on the continuing war in the Middle East could cause American consumers to cut back on their spending and with further layoffs, earnings of Big Tech firms, reportedly 32 percent of the S&P 500’s value would sink pulling downwards at the top of the K, according to Dario Perkins, an economist a consultant at TS Lombard, reported This Week.

Taking an even broader look we are still seeing the K shaped economy that we noted last month, the “golden age” that Trump says Americans are living in, most industries are in a hiring freeze inflation is still at 2 percent, and with the richest 1 percent holding nearly 32 percent of the nation’s wealth as they also reported, the future for America’s working families remains uncertain.

With income equality still a present reality there is speculation as to whether it will last or not, but Mark Zandi chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said to them “This is not a cyclical or temporary phenomenon, he said, noting that it’s “structural.”

Of course, the Israeli-American war and the loss of access to the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of gasoline to over $4.00 a gallon and in some stations in Chicago we have seen prices of regular gasoline as high as $4.59 a gallon. Consumers, especially those with children will be hard pressed to balance the family budget with increasing rents, a shortage of affordable housing, and  the higher cost of food, already seen in some areas.

Of note, “This is not the kind of oil shock economists typically look through. Those tend to hit both sides of the equation at once, slowing growth while raising prices, and eventually wash out. This one “is more COVID-esque,” Swonk said, pointing to supply-chain disruptions that extend far beyond crude—from diesel and jet fuel to helium, a key input in semiconductor production. Swonk said CFOs she has spoken with are watching shipping costs soar after the transportation sector had just begun recovering from a recession.”

Recently released figures from the BLS on the Consumer Price Index show that "In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March (SA); up 2.6 percent over the year (NSA)."

Add that to the cost of producing crops and the increasingly high costs of fertilizer, {the  US is the world’s highest consumer},not to mention the cost of transporting food, the golden age looks deeply tarnished, and despite the repeal of some tariffs by the US Supreme Court, some farmers are still reeling from the president’s tariffs, specifically those that were not able to make purchases before the tariffs hit. To make matters worse, agricultural economists are predicting a 40 percent increase in the cost of fertilizer creating possible food shortages in American supermarkets.

Taking the long view of the March numbers is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who said, “You can have a series of these supply shocks and that can lead the public generally — businesses, price setters, households — to start expecting higher inflation over time. Why wouldn’t they?” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event this week” reported The New York Times.

Despite this risk, Mr. Powell did not convey any immediate urgency to take action, saying instead that the Fed’s policy was “in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out.”

Updated April 12, 2026

Fed keeps interest rates the same frustrating Trump

Wednesday the Federal Open Markets Committee of the Federal Reserve Board, as expected, voted to keep interest rates the same from 3.5 percent to 3,75 percent citing the resilience of the United States job market among other key components, with Chair Jerome Powell saying, the economy “expanded at a solid pace last year and is coming into 2026 on a firm footing."

All of which follows a steady pattern,well established during his tenure, using established criteria of looking at the data on inflation and unemployment to meet the twinned mandate of the Federal Reserve, inflation at 2 percent, and full employment. But, despite  this traditional approach, President Trump has been not just unhappy with it, but has made disparaging remarks about Powell and his intelligence, and wants to see greater rate cuts; and, in the recent past has called for cuts as deep as 3 percent, a figure that many economists believe could lead to inflation, and possibly a recession.

The traditional independence of the Fed has been in the public eye especially since Trump’s second term, and in response to questions asked at the press conference, after the meeting, about the implications of politics in FOMC decisions, the Chair replied, “It’s just an institutional arrangement that has served the people well,” he said, “and If politics get in the way, it would create the perception that the bank would act in the interest of one group or another, rather than the broader public,” adding that, “If you lose that, first of all it would be hard to restore the credibility of the institution.”

There were two dissenters, supporting the president in wanting at least a quarter point cut, and they were Trump’s handpicked board members, Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller.

While inflation has cooled to 2.7 percent, it is still a matter of concern for the Fed but Powell said to the media, and reported by The New York Times,"We still have some tension between employment and inflation,” and noted, “but it has waned a bit. That means there’s less risk of an acceleration in inflation and also of a serious deterioration in the labor market.”

Core inflation as measured by the PCE, the Fed’s “preferred inflation measure — is just above 2 percent, stripping out tariff effects,” they added; but, “Powell said he takes a lot of solace from indications that consumers think inflation won’t be too hot either over the short or the longer term. “Expectations have been solid, and they reflect confidence in the return to 2 percent inflation,” and in an opined they reported, “If consumers start to think that prices will rise, it’s more likely they will, because workers will demand higher wage increases to compensate.”

The December 2025 Index increased on a seasonal basis to 0.3 percent, and over the last 12 months increased 2,78 percent, again seasonally adjusted, with the largest increase to 0.4 percent was for shelter and “was the largest factor in all the time's monthly increase,” in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released last month.

Taken together there is cause for vigilance by the Fed, and of course the White House.

With eyes set on future developments Powell said, “We don’t take things off the table but it isn’t anybody’s base case right now,” in response to questions of a rate hike.

It’s been widely reported that Trump is focused on Powell’s replacement after his term empires this May, and he said on Thursday at a Cabinet meeting, "Next week ... we're going to be announcing the head of the Fed, who that will be, and it'll be a person that will, I think, do a good job."

On Friday he did just that, selecting former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to be the next chair, and as reported by Investopedia, “Warsh, who served as a Fed governor between 2006 and 2011, beat out several finalists for the job, including Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Warsh will take over as Fed chair after Jerome Powell's term expires in May, assuming he is confirmed by the Senate.

"I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best," Trump wrote in a social media post Friday morning.”

Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker, “had long been considered one of the front-runners for the president’s nomination. And, during his tenure he became “the youngest governor in the bank’s history, and served as its liaison to Wall Street during the 2007-08 financial crisis,” according to The Hill.

Warsh needs Senate confirmation, and this is not a slam dunk, and “Republican Sens. Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) have vowed to oppose anyone the president nominates to the role while the Justice Department is conducting a criminal probe into the bank and Powell,

Tillis could also use his perch on the Senate Banking Committee to hinder Trump’s Fed nominees from being approved by the panel, which is a key procedural step on the way to a full Senate confirmation vote,” they added in their reportage.

In what is now apparently a full blown political tempest, “Tillis and Murkowski’s support could be critical for Warsh with Senate Democrats unlikely to give him much, if any, support. Democrats are also fuming over Trump’s attempt to fire Fed board member Lisa Cook, whose challenge to the president’s order was heard last week by the Supreme Court.”

He has “accused the Fed under Powell of using independence as a shield from accountability, and said members of the bank should “grow up” and “be tough” in the face of criticism.”

There is more than affinity for interest rate cuts and a record of critiquing the Fed under Powell, there is this: “The nominee also shares close political connections to Trump. His father-in-law, cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, has donated millions of dollars to Trump and Republican candidates, and was reportedly behind the president’s quest to purchase Greenland.”

Some economists according to  USA Today said that Warsh may not be as docile as expected, leading us to think that in the foreseeable future, could Warsh turn out to be like Powell?

December Jobs Report: mild with clouds ahead

The times they are a changing said an old song, but Friday's job report from the US Dept. of Labor said otherwise with a barely changed jobs outlook for the American economy from December with 50,000 non farm jobs created scarcely changed from the prior month; and, with a modest expectation of 53,000 jobs, stasis has set in, even though uncertainty still reigns, and with the accompanied 4,4 percent unemployment rate the US is showing resilience in the face of extreme cautiousness by employers making only the most modest and necessary hiring.

Continuing along this path are the heavy hitters of health care catering to the aging population of baby boomers joined by high income earners, as we saw last month, still bankrolling restaurants and bars, despite lower alcohol consumption. But, the good times are only a deception since there have been less than 50,000 jobs created since January 2025, and this alone has become a cause of concern for economists as they watch employment to population growth, and see a deficit.

“At this point, we have to be concerned about the strength of the labor market. Total job creation at less than 0.5% is extremely rare in recent history outside of recessions or the jobless recovery of the early 2000’s. This far into an economic expansion, it’s essentially unheard of,” wrote Michael Linden, senior policy fellow at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a left-leaning non-profit,” reported The Hill.

Perhaps ominously, he added, ““Combined with the persistent concerns over cost-of-living, a weak labor market could tip the economy into a contraction.”

That brings us to the entanglement of politics and the economy, and one which President Trump said he would fix on the campaign trail and that in the near year since he was sworn into office has not materialized with inflation still hovering at 2.6 percent and persistently high costs of housing and groceries.

Of course, no president controls the economy like the Wizard of Oz as we've stated before, but sitting in the Oval office they have to take it on the chin when costs are elevated, and the polls are showing that Trump is getting negatives in the 30s, while critics have pointed out that he seems more intent on foreign affairs, under the banner of economic gains, but how that will materialize on Main Street, as well as Wall Street is an open question,

There are hopes for lower and abundant gas to fuel America’s love affair with motor vehicles but investors and economists have said that sourcing Venezuelan oil with the removal of President Nicolas Maduro may be more hope than reality with a moribund infrastructure, safety concerns, among many others.

Affordability is the new buzzword when discussing the economy in the US and the high cost of housing, both rental and mortgages, has escalated fears in all but the most well heeled consumer; and, even administration officials are worried about the foreign focus especially with the departure of Trump stalwart Marjorie Taylor Green, and her dire warning of the prospect of the Republicans losing the Congressional dominance in the upcoming midterms over the high cost of living for American working families,

There are some who feel more positive and The New York Times wrote that “Most analysts expect that this momentum moderated in the last three months of 2025. But they still expect growth in the $30 trillion U.S. economy will register a respectable pace in 2026 — above 2 percent — even as serious concerns about housing affordability and the general cost of living persist.”

We are looking at “a series of barometers for Mr. Trump’s second term, during which the president has pursued an agenda of wide-scale deregulation, generous corporate tax cuts, punishing global tariffs, tougher border enforcement and a full-scale restructuring of the federal bureaucracy. That effort alone resulted in the loss of roughly 277,000 jobs from the ranks of government last year.”

Are all of these pieces, as the Times noted, able to cobble together the economy? The absence of an end game has caused worry and concentration in many corners,

Reflecting that worry makes for some searching looks and a less than optimistic, if not pessimistic outlook and “Those policy decisions — immigration, tariff, trade — are probably central to the slowdown that we’ve seen, particularly if you’re comparing it to the last two years or so,” said Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. economic research for Fitch Ratings,” he told the Times.

“It’s not going to be a boom by any means. It’s not going to be a bust by any means,” he said.

Contrast this with what, “In a series of posts on social media, the Council of Economic Advisers said that the jobs figures from December underscored a “a stable labor market where workers’ purchasing power has been improving due to pay increases outpacing inflation.”

“Kevin A. Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, later told CNBC that the hiring numbers “look a little bit different than every other indicator that we have.”

It’s our belief that the White House is looking nervously over their shoulders as they try to manage a full plate, and predictions from those previously cited are reflecting uncertainty wrapped in hope. And, adding to it, Hassett said there is "A heck of a lot of economic growth, and it doesn’t necessarily have to mean a whole huge amount of job creation.”

Of equal concern is “The unemployment rate for young people, between the ages of 16 and 24, appears to have mellowed out after steadily rising from a 2023 low. It’s now at 10.4 percent, down slightly from November. Economists have been particularly concerned about this group, entering the labor market at a time when hiring has been extremely sluggish even though few people are getting laid off.”

When colleges hand out diplomas in May and June, the time for graduates to gain full employment will be further watched closely; and, even last year’s graduates are pessimistic about getting full time employment, seeking marriage, starting a family and buying that first home, with many interviewed stating that home ownership may be merely a dream.

The unemployment rate for Black workers has dropped  by seven tenths of a point, to 7.5 percent, reversing November gains. Even with gains and losses that the data tracks, it’s clear that  the rate of unemployment at the end of 2024, was 6.1 percent at the end of 2024. And as reported by the Times “Black workers are still roughly twice as likely to be unemployed as white workers.”

Fortune Magazine had noted that “Official unemployment numbers also disguise the depth of the crisis. Black women’s unemployment rate rose from 5.4% in February to 7.5% in September—already more than two points above what the Federal Reserve considers “full employment.” But when accounting for the hundreds of thousands of women pushed out of the labor force entirely since 2020, the real unemployment rate for Black women is 10.23%.”

Concentrated in lower wage jobs such as food service health care, think nursing assistants in care facilities, and retail, Black women’s employment is gaining in these areas but with much lower wages than other roles, “Even within health care, Black women face some of the largest racial and gender pay gaps. Meanwhile, Black women lost 1,500 jobs in government, a more stable and higher-paying sector, and saw zero gains in finance, transportation, or professional services. In short, they are gaining jobs where wages are lowest and losing them where wages are better,” Fortune added.

“Overall, the details of this survey are very encouraging,” wrote Thomas Simons, an economist with Jefferies, in a note to clients. “The slack in the labor market that emerged during the spring and summer looks more and more like a temporary response to the tariff announcements than a fundamental shift in the labor market.:

The Federal Reserve Bank is again in a tight spot, with many saying a pause in future rate cuts,even as far out as April seem unlikely as the focus in reducing inflation will be their goal despite the tepid report from December, a move bound to anger the present who wants deep cuts to at least three percent, and while Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, has said he will stay; but, on Sunday it was also reported by the Times that, “The U.S. attorney’s office in the District of Columbia has opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters and whether Mr. Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project, according to officials briefed on the situation.

The inquiry, which includes an analysis of Mr. Powell’s public statements and an examination of spending records, was approved in November by Jeanine Pirro, a longtime ally of President Trump who was appointed to run the office last year, the officials said.”

In a video taped rebuttal Powell said. “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president,” and added “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

December rate cut: A holiday gift from the Federal Reserve

Wednesday's rate cut by the Federal Reserve had been anticipated by some in our earlier coverage, but seeing is believing, and that news came with no data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics due to the government shutdown, so the Federal Opens Market Committee made the decision with one armed tied behind their collective backs.

Consequently they also faced the dilemma of trying to meet its mandate of full employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent creating division among its members, with some saying hold back on a cut, and full steam ahead by others, creating a first for that body.

The drop in the rate went down to a range: 3.5 to 3.75, to 0.25 percentage points. And The Hill reported that, “The FOMC approved the rate cut by a vote of 9 to 3, a smaller margin than the typical Fed rate decision. Fed board member Stephen Miran preferred to cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, while Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid called for no cut at all.”

It should be no surprise that Miran, an ally of President Trump, wanted the larger cuts a bone of contention between the president and Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell.

Even allowing for a plurality of views, “The unusual number and nature of Wednesday’s dissents revealed how hard it could be for Fed Chair Jerome Powell — and his eventual successor — to keep the FOMC united with the economy at a foggy crossroads” reported The Hill and added,”The last time three FOMC members voted against a Fed move was in September 2019, when the Fed cut interest rates to unwind a series of previous increases meant to stave off inflation that never materialized."

At Wednesday’s press conference, Powell said,“Everyone agrees that inflation is too high, and we want it to come down, and agree that the labor market has softened and that there’s further risk. Everyone agrees on that.” 

Other reports from officials say that inflation might be acceptable at 3 percent as a new standard, yet that shift might be more philosophical than reflection of a true policy, beyond the traditional mandate of the Federal Reserve.

With perhaps the greatest understatement he added: “Where the difference is, is how do you weigh those risks? And what does your forecast look like?”

Powell’s term ends in May of 2026, and Trump is expected to name his successor in the near future; and, it’s no secret that the two have differed on the role and size of rate cuts, and the president did give some of his characteristic verbal bludgeoning to the Chair for the past several months.

The dilemma that Powell has faced, as we have noted many times before, is the balancing act between meeting the mandate and taking stock of inflation, plus the adjoining employment rate. While inflation has rebounded from earlier years when it was over 3 percent, especially in a post pandemic world, the current rate is still high, and is especially felt by low income Americans during their weekly grocery shopping; and, many are feeling that the president has not kept his campaign promise of lowering those prices, inasmuch as any president can.

Meanwhile employment has remained resilient, if shaky, in the face of economic uncertainty, mostly attributable to the billions of dollars in tariffs imposed by the president, what an earlier era called protectionism; and, the effect on hiring is significant as employers are trying to make do with what they have on payroll, and increasing hiring only when necessary, creating a slowdown in many areas, health care and hospitality excepted.

Consumer confidence has taken a hit, as are the poll ratings for the president now at 36 percent. And, while he has portrayed affordability as a Democratic hoax, the reality of higher prices and the ever increasing costs of housing have many American working families deeply worried about their economic future, not to mention meeting monthly bills, and feeding their children.

There is some optimism by some economists that consumer spending is steady but it;s important to note, as we did last month, that the increased spending is supported by high income earners, but lower income individuals and families face the above challenges, thus the infamous K shaped economy.

Currently it is estimated that there is $150 billion in tariff money sitting in reserve and the the president has said that some might be given to Americans in the form of a check, or to help pay for health care, but economists don’t see that as a viable option in either case, with the latter forcing people to confront, on their own, the behemoth of American health care giants.

The role of politics cannot be underestimated in examining the American economy but there are fears that many hardworking Americans may be caught in the middle.

On Thursday there were the initial jobless claims and while there was an increase to the tune of 236,000 and allowing for some holiday volatility, following previously lower numbers of 191,000, there are cautionary notes, according to Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, who told Fortune magazine that, “Initial claims don’t give you a sense of what’s coming,” she said. They’re what economists like to call a lagging indicator, meaning they tend to spike after a recession is underway, not before it. Recent weekly readings, distorted by holidays and special factors, are even less informative.”

Nevertheless, as Yahoo Finance reported, “Weekly initial claims tend to be choppy around the holidays and will likely continue to fluctuate through the end of the year, but Thursday’s figures are toward the higher end of readings seen in 2025. Companies like PepsiCo Inc. and HP Inc. have laid out plans to reduce headcount in recent weeks, and nationwide layoffs in October were the highest since early 2023.”

The future is on the minds of many and Powell, playing close to the vest, feels at best that shifting into neutral gear may be the best option but then again, as The New York Times opined, ”If there are signs that the unemployment rate might surge, that would probably prompt more officials to embrace the need to cut rates. So far, though, most policymakers do not appear worried, nor do they appear to be downbeat about growth. Projections released on Wednesday showed that most officials expected the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5 percent in 2025, before declining.”

Tariffs are still on the chart and it seems that Powell, and others, are waiting for the first quarter of 2026 to make an assessment, perhaps a code word for “wait and see.”

Updated on December 15, 2025

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