April Jobs Report: Resilient for now

In one of those economic surprises, or the ever circuitous path that the American economy has taken in recent years, on Friday the US Dept of Labor released its monthly job data for April revealing 115,000 non-farm jobs, much to the surprise of economists who expected at least half of that figure showing that the American jobs picture is still resilient. And, if that seems to be a hackneyed label, then so be it say a range of not only economists, but academics, market watchers, and others.

CNBC in its coverage said, “The report shows the labor market has been “pretty much stable for a year, year and a half,” Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve of Chicago, said in a CNBC interview. “I characterize that we’ve been stable without being good. ... The unemployment rate has been stable, the hiring rate’s been stable, the layoff rate’s been stable, the vacancy rate has been stable. So, I still think there’s not a lot of evidence that the job market is falling apart.”

While it cheered the White House and other administration officials, to others it still seemed to be a cautious praise at best, with higher than sough inflation, and the effects that the War on Iran, and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz which has hampered the delivery of 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas resulting in an average per gallon price of gasoline at $4.59 per gallon in the United States.

During his State of the Union address, President Trump declared that America under his leadership was “bigger, better, richer, and stronger” and created a “booming economy” now words that he may regret saying, especially with his polls tanking, those efforts will undoubtedly be on the way. 

The Associated Press-NORC-Center for Public Affairs recently reported that his support in the GOP fell from 74 percent to 62 percent in April, a stark figure among his base of support. Adding to that, 61 percent of Americans do not support the US in its war against Iran. A devolution in his handling of the economy is not far behind, especially with 80 percent of Americans feeling the price squeeze at the gas pump.

While wages increased to 3.6 percent, Americans are now forced to spend much of that increase on gasoline, especially those people who live in areas where public transportation is scarce; and, add to that the spectre of even higher food costs due to increased transportation costs, then the results for many Americans  may be burdensome, especially lower income individuals and families as they struggle to meet higher housing costs in a country that has not created enough of them.

Of equal concern is that job increases may not meet population growth as we reported in April, and where some demographers have said the nation has fallen behind, 

While the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent it could have been higher had not some people simply given up looking for work in a challenging environment, especially for those without college degrees.

A conundrum is that consumers are still spending, and while they are the economic drivers of the national economy the reasons for their continuance bear examining; or,one case, higher than average tax returns are one cause, interest rate cuts by the Fed last year are another, and, lastly, is that high income earners are still spending, it supports the often quoted K shaped economy. But economists say that might not last forever, and if consumers continue to cut back on spending to afford fuel, the consequences, according to Investopedia, would cause “a ripple effect  that hurts the job market. Some forecasters unemployment to rise as soon as this summer.”

Overall, this is an economy that has its visible markers, as well as its less visible ones, notably that job creation has consistently been higher in the small business community, commonly referred by some as the “Mom and Pop” market, where recent analysis has shown that  for companies with less than 20 employees they have created more than 525,000 jobs in 2025; and in January through March 169,000 jobs, a figure greater than by larger employers.

The recent back and forth on a resolution to end the conflict in Iran has caused the markets to go from high to low, often in less than 24 hours; a figure that some observers are attributing to President Trump’s vacillating remarks that the war is over, and there is another resolution pending, but then, also saying that there is no Iranian leadership to negotiate with; all of which has made the market indices seasick trying to keep up.

One prominent feature of the last several months of job reports is the dominance of health care related jobs, attributable to the aging of America, and the needs of the so called “baby boomers” whose longevity requires consistent care. As has been noted, economic observers are wondering of the precariousness of the jobs outlook where one industry dominates all the others. For April this dominance resulted in a gain of 37,000 jobs.

Likewise social assistance of 17,000 jobs gained and attendant home health care of 11,000. Common knowledge dictates this as a historical legacy but its dominance could cut into future gains, or losses for other industries.

On the down side is the continuing loss of federal workers, begun last year at the beginning of the second Trump administration, now with 9,000 additional jobs cut.

On the corporate side, cuts have been rampant lately with those at META, and now the bankrupt Spirit Airlines.

The news that Meta plans to cut approximately 10% of its workforce—roughly 8,000 employees—starting May 20, 2026, “alongside 6,000 open role closures to fund massive AI investments” according to the New York Times CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who deemed 2026 "the year that AI starts to dramatically change the way that we work," expects to offset high infrastructure investment costs while driving efficiencies.

“Mark Zuckerberg, Meta’s chief executive, has said he expects much of the work done in the technology industry to eventually be overtaken by A.I.-powered systems, including coding assistants that help engineers write software.”

“We’re doing this as part of our continued effort to run the company more efficiently and to allow us to offset the other investments we’re making,” Janelle Gale, Meta’s chief people officer, said in the memo to employees. “This is not an easy trade-off and it will mean letting go of people who have made meaningful contributions to Meta during their time here.”

Tech and other informational services have been on the downswing for some time and the April report shows this is a continuing trend with a loss of 13,000, and telecommunications another 3,000.

While the effects of the two months of war with Iran has only slightly affected the US, despite the higher gas prices, the resulting effect on the global economy has been harsh: “The fallout from two months of war in Iran is shuttering textile mills in India and Bangladesh, grounding airplanes in Ireland, Poland and Germany, and prompting energy rationing in Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand. The only country, it seems, that has been relatively spared from the economic chaos is the one that started the war: the United States,” also reported by The New York Times.

“While warning signs of a recession are flashing across countries in Asia and Europe, the United States is likely to outperform most of the world’s advanced economies. Growth is steady and unemployment low. “It’s still hard to bet against the U.S. economy,” the Royal Bank of Canada said last week.”

If the aggression lasts much longer then the effect on US jobs market will increase, despite the repeal of most of the Trump tariffs from the recent decision from the US Supreme Court; but, with recent threats on Spain for not supporting the administration's efforts to open the Strait, an area freight with danger, tariffs will once more be a factor facing American companies, and in turn consumers.

“Economists say it would take a much more significant spike in oil prices, perhaps as high as $150 a barrel, for them to begin worrying seriously about the possibility of a recession in the United States.

That is not the case elsewhere, where the dreaded combination of slower growth and higher inflation is already raising alarms about stagflation.”

Are we safe? Maybe, say some, again from the Times: “For the United States, the biggest advantage is that, unlike most of its global peers, it produces more oil and gas than it consumes. That doesn’t mean it is unaffected by what happens in global energy markets, but it helps dampen the impact.”

Most importantly, “The U.S. economy is also heavily based on services and depends relatively little on the energy-intensive manufacturing industries that have been hit hardest by the spike in oil prices. And it went into the war with a stronger economy than many other countries, giving it more of a buffer against a slowdown.

“We’re not feeling the same pain the rest of the world is,” said Jason Bordoff, the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

Others are not so sanguine citing the cost of diesel fuel which as the Times also noted, in late March, is less discernible to the average consumer but whose price has climbed faster than the price of gasoline which could lead “to inflation across a wide range of goods” affecting the price and shipping of those products that most Americans rely on.

“Diesel “powers a lot of basic industries,” said Vidya Mani, a visiting associate professor at Cornell University’s business school whose research focuses on supply chains. “Mining industries, chemical factories, clothing factories — a lot of those things come from diesel.”

“Because of its far-reaching consequences, it can stop a lot of industries,” she said, adding that if prices continue to rise, consumers will probably begin to see the effects on everyday items and necessities within the next several weeks.”

“Much of the diesel in the United States comes from domestic supplies. But oil companies can still price the commodity at global market rates. In January, a little more than 40 percent of the cost of diesel came from the price of crude oil, according to the Energy Information Administration” making things even murkier for consumers as time goes by without an end to the conflict.

Spirit Airlines shut down last  Saturday “after failing to strike a deal for a financial lifeline from the Trump administration, two people familiar with the matter said,” according to The New York Times.

For air travelers, looking for a no frills trip with low ticket costs, they had it but also faced charges for nearly everything to balance the fares, they succumbed to “high fuel prices, competition from larger airlines, the Covid-19 pandemic and an engine defect hobbled the company.

In recent weeks, “the airline had been negotiating a $500 million lifeline from the Trump administration. Some of the investors that Spirit owed money to oppose the terms of the bailout, under which the government could have ended up owning 90 percent of Spirit, because it would have left them in a worse financial position if the airline eventually failed.”

4,000 employees in Florida alone are now without jobs, with almost 1,000 employees laid off from Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston airports, plus more in Detroit, with rough estimates of a total of 17,000 ending an era, but also a model that was not working in post pandemic America. 

“Spirit has been widely credited with democratizing air travel in the United States by keeping costs and ticket prices very low. The approach served Spirit well for years, generating huge profits. But competition from larger airlines and rising costs, particularly for pilots and other professionals, hobbled the company after the pandemic. It also suffered disproportionately from industry wide engine problems,” noted the Times.

Meanwhile that old bugaboo, inflation - is still a large concern as has been widely noted, and the Federal Reserve Bank has kept interest rates the same in light of the 3.8 inflation rate, much higher than its 2 percent target, 

While Jerome Powell’s term as head, ends in a few days, the nominee by the president, Kevin Warsh is expected to have Senate approval, and is expected to cut interest rates, since while “the Fed cut rates last year, it did not deliver the kind of relief that Mr. Trump wanted. Since January, it has also turned cautious on subsequent reductions, a sentiment that has only grown amid the war in Iran, which has caused an acute energy shock,” said the Times.

It’s no secret that Trump wants stronger cuts and is determined to influence the Fed from the White House, threatening its traditional independence hinged by mandates on low inflation and job stability, which was threatened by the false charges of cost overruns attributed to Powell at the headquarters building.

Warsh has said if approved there is the chance that he would do so, besides his statement that he would not be the president’s “sock puppet”. Critics and Capitol Hill observers worry that should be stray from the president’s wishes this could be a repeat scenario “according to Peter Conti-Brown, an expert on Fed governance at the University of Pennsylvania, said Mr. Powell’s insistence on a clear, certain end to the investigation was about “not just about protecting himself but about protecting the Federal Reserve.”

“If this becomes a tried-and-true path to bully a central banker out of office, then we will see its invocation again,” said Mr. Conti-Brown, who added that the investigation had already proved damaging in other ways.”

March Jobs Report: Optimism or despair?

Now that the Passover and Easter holidays are over, it’s time to take a closer look at the March jobs report and its surprising report from the US Dept of labor that showed 178,000 non-farm jobs, a figure that far exceeded expectations, and predictions marry that to the previous month’s heavy hitters of health care, as well as a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent, it seems that there might have been a rebound from earlier worrisome reports, yet a closer look under the hood shows a different view.

One of the chief concerns is the lowered rate of job participation, and while the BLS deems it negligible,  - 61.9 % - but economists are watching the figure and see that the downward trend is concerning, the less people working, or giving up looking the less the match to population growth and the formula that economists examine to determine the health of the US economy.

“The unemployment rate dropped, but for the wrong reasons: a loss in labor force participation,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG told Fortune. The declines were concentrated among prime working-age men (twenties to thirties); young women between ages 20 and 24; and men over 55. In other words, the unemployment rate fell not because people found work, but because they became discouraged and stopped looking.”

Add to that the deportation of undocumented workers by the Trump administration and the uncertainty regarding judicial oversight, things don’t seem as rosy as they seem, But, a single report does not hold significance for macro economists, since there is the rule of three reports to accurately predict future concerns.

And, as is BLS custom, all reports are subject to revision as we saw with February that gave a few concerns with its decrease of 133,000, among economists, as well as lawmakers.

One surprise was that construction added 26,000 people to their payrolls and while much of this gain was due to project specific contracts, it is still far less than it has been in the past.

Much of this increase has been attributed to the policies of President Trump, and campaign promises, but this is unclear as of this date.

Federal employment has continued its downward spiral after the DOGE decimation of last year, now down to 355,000 or 11.8 percent, yet there are unverified reports that there are efforts to increase hiring.

Taken together with the threats of AI in the workforce, especially for some programmers, that is a matter of controversy with wildly fluctuating reports varying from total elimination of some jobs, entry-level and white-collar, to the retraining of others.

Forbes noted that, “The pressing question is, ‘You’re going to have a technological shock — how painful is it going to be?” Martha Gimbel, the executive director of the Budget Lab at Yale University, told the [New York] Times."

“At this point, no one knows. Maybe it will be far less than some of the high estimates thrown about. What investors, workers, and the country at large have to realize is there is a risk of unknown size that could further undermine the labor market, also known as the ability of people to make money and live.”

There are a few groups of workers that are vulnerable in today’s job climate: younger workers, those under 25 years of age, especially recent college graduates, and Black and Asian workers.

Taking a rear view look at the beginning of the year, “Through February, employers announced 156,742 job cuts, the lowest January-to-February total since 2022, when 34,309 cuts were recorded in the first two months of the year. It is the fifth-highest January-February total since 2009.”

“February’s dip is a nice reprieve from the elevated job cut plans to start the year. With U.S. involvement in a growing war in Iran, the end of Q1 may bring more layoff plans as companies tighten belts amid uncertainty and higher costs,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas,” in their statements posted on their website.

In a forecast for the future, based on their prior analysis, “Hiring plans rose 140% in February to 12,755 from 5,306 in January. They are down 63% from the 34,580 hiring plans in February 2025. So far this year, employers have announced plans to hire 18,061, down 56% from 40,669 new hires during the same period in 2025.”

Wages increased by 0.2 percent after reaching 0.4 percent in February, and further decreases with higher inflation dependending on the continuing war in the Middle East could cause American consumers to cut back on their spending and with further layoffs, earnings of Big Tech firms, reportedly 32 percent of the S&P 500’s value would sink pulling downwards at the top of the K, according to Dario Perkins, an economist a consultant at TS Lombard, reported This Week.

Taking an even broader look we are still seeing the K shaped economy that we noted last month, the “golden age” that Trump says Americans are living in, most industries are in a hiring freeze inflation is still at 2 percent, and with the richest 1 percent holding nearly 32 percent of the nation’s wealth as they also reported, the future for America’s working families remains uncertain.

With income equality still a present reality there is speculation as to whether it will last or not, but Mark Zandi chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said to them “This is not a cyclical or temporary phenomenon, he said, noting that it’s “structural.”

Of course, the Israeli-American war and the loss of access to the Strait of Hormuz has increased the cost of gasoline to over $4.00 a gallon and in some stations in Chicago we have seen prices of regular gasoline as high as $4.59 a gallon. Consumers, especially those with children will be hard pressed to balance the family budget with increasing rents, a shortage of affordable housing, and  the higher cost of food, already seen in some areas.

Of note, “This is not the kind of oil shock economists typically look through. Those tend to hit both sides of the equation at once, slowing growth while raising prices, and eventually wash out. This one “is more COVID-esque,” Swonk said, pointing to supply-chain disruptions that extend far beyond crude—from diesel and jet fuel to helium, a key input in semiconductor production. Swonk said CFOs she has spoken with are watching shipping costs soar after the transportation sector had just begun recovering from a recession.”

Recently released figures from the BLS on the Consumer Price Index show that "In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March (SA); up 2.6 percent over the year (NSA)."

Add that to the cost of producing crops and the increasingly high costs of fertilizer, {the  US is the world’s highest consumer},not to mention the cost of transporting food, the golden age looks deeply tarnished, and despite the repeal of some tariffs by the US Supreme Court, some farmers are still reeling from the president’s tariffs, specifically those that were not able to make purchases before the tariffs hit. To make matters worse, agricultural economists are predicting a 40 percent increase in the cost of fertilizer creating possible food shortages in American supermarkets.

Taking the long view of the March numbers is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who said, “You can have a series of these supply shocks and that can lead the public generally — businesses, price setters, households — to start expecting higher inflation over time. Why wouldn’t they?” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said at an event this week” reported The New York Times.

Despite this risk, Mr. Powell did not convey any immediate urgency to take action, saying instead that the Fed’s policy was “in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out.”

Updated April 12, 2026

September Jobs Report: Come and Gone

If you missed the September Jobs report released by the US Labor Dept last week you are not alone with the competing news of Ukraine Peace deals, the burgeoning case with the pressure to release the Epstein films and broadsides from President Trump, it was easy to miss; but, now, with the Thanksgiving holiday a day away it’s time to hit the refresh button on what the American economy looks like, now that the government is open and the tabulators had enough data, due to that impasse to gain a windfall as employers hit the submit button for increased data collection.

To be brief, it’s still resilient, as the good news was continued with 119,000 non farm jobs, much more than expected, and an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent, the marquee rate, as we prefer to call it, and even the household survey showed a steady pace with the big numbers for the health care industry, and the steady drain of manufacturing.

What beckons in mid December at the Federal Reserve Meeting, where economists are predicting that there will be no rate cut, because of this stable report and the market has been strong, so there seems to be no calls on Wall Street for a rate cut.

According to Reuters, “Some economists viewed the rise in the jobless rate as bolstering the argument for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, while others said the better-than-expected job growth suggested the U.S. central bank should stay pat, especially since policymakers would not get another employment report before the December 9-10 meeting.”

While the September report, released late November, because of the shutdown, and the less probable release of October’s report, the Fed is at a disadvantage without the usual complete data, and the chances that the president might, or might not make a move to install his own at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics after he fired to the former head; but, with foreign wars, and interventions beckoning from afar, and Trump might punt on this appointment.

The good news is that wages increased at the same rate of 0.2 percent and 3.8 over the years but some see murky waters ahead with not only the absence of October but the revisions of July and August of 33,000 but, it’s equally important to realize that revisions are standard for BLS.

Layoffs are not seeing an increase but then again a surge of new hires is not occurring, but as is common knowledge tariffs, and their on again, off again have taken a toll on the business community, especially small business with employees under 500 employees, with where most Americans are employed and who don’t have the heft that the big retailers, such as Walmart have in negotiating lower tarrifs, and there are some who are worried in that community. It’s a given that business markets don’t like uncertainty, and the end game from the White House has not been evident.

One area that is still showing growth and that is restaurants and bars hitting 37,000 new hires but as economists have pointed out this is mostly supported by high income earners, and as reported this is a K shaped economy with those at the top of the bar with high incomes and those at the bottom with lower wages leaving an empty middle. 

With grocery prices still high at major markets, American working families are struggling to stay afloat with rent, mortgage payments and child care and the theme of affordability, seen in the New York mayoral race won the day for Zohran Mandami and now that term has entered the economic as well as political realm.

A common theme is that to maintain economic parity 100,000 jobs need to be maintained each month, but with cautious employers citing tariff uncertainty as a factor it’s an open question if that can be maintained.

"These changes complicate traditional interpretations of job numbers, but also point toward a labor market undergoing gradual, not chaotic, transformation," said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University. "The key question for the year ahead is whether the economy can maintain this delicate equilibrium,” according to Reuters.

One category, professional services and temporary workers, once a boom in the 1980s, has taken a nose dive with September showing a decrease of 13,000. Of course in competition with health care, it looks puny, but some are hoping that post holiday numbers might increase but others noting that any hiring in the retail sector has already been done, and stress that historically those workers are laid off in January.

Full time workers may have gained a bump of 675,000 and part time with 575,000 and a slight reduction in those working part time, but preferring full time, give some hope to some economic observers, but notably there was an increase of those unemployed for 26 weeks, or more.

“September’s jobs report shows the labor market still had resilience before the shutdown, beating payroll expectations, but the picture remains muddy with August jobs revised to a job loss and the unemployment rate increasing,” said Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor. “These numbers are a snapshot from two months ago and they don’t reflect where we stand now in November.” told CNBC, thus complicating the work of the Fed in December.

May Jobs Report: Still solid for the US

The jobs outlook for May, according to the US Dept. of Labor is still strong despite the threats of the tariffs from the Trump administration, and despite a slight softening from the previous month, and what was expected 139,000 non farm jobs is still a solid report and one that has surprised many observers, and economists, and despite expectations did not show a downturn from these tariffs.

This good news shows that despite the politicization of the American economy, all is well, and gave rise to accolades from the Administration, and The Council of American Advisors Chair Steve Miran, noted, "The President is succeeding in creating hundreds of thousands of jobs since he came into office, more than half a million jobs since he came into office, and they’re all going to native born Americans.”

The unchanged rate of 4.2 unemployment was also satisfactory, although predicted, but what changed was a lessening of the labor force participation rate among prime aged workers, those aged 25 to 54, who were looking for work, which dropped to 83.4, betraying, perhaps, a lack of confidence from Americans.

That stands in contrast to the average wages, that exceed inflation, which rose 0.4 percent from April, now at $36.24 an hour; and, even further American consumers are still spending, perhaps in no small measure to the increased wages, but, as some observers have noted, that spending may be to save money on goods to avoid the “on again off again” tariffs from the president.

Consumer confidence has waxed and waned in the last 8 weeks, with concerns about tariffs, and layoffs, but The Conference Board reported for May, that consumers were feeling more upbeat than thought:

“Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows.”

They also emphasized this: “However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

If this seems like a conundrum, then it is, with indicators expressing some level of confidence, and some improved beliefs, but, perhaps cautiously optimistic might be the best estimation.

The New York Times opined that, “The steady hiring is an indication that businesses are still seeing enough demand for goods and services that they will fill open roles and add new ones, even if they're no longer expanding as quickly as they had over the past few years.”

To note, for May, as seen in preceding months, the heavy hitters are health care jobs, coming in at 78,000 and leisure and hospitality at 48,000; but while others fell flat, manufacturing took a nosedive to the tune of 8,000 jobs.

DOGE cuts to the federal work force disposed of 22, 000 federal jobs in May, and according to the Times report, "down 59,000 since January. That’s not counting those on administrative leave, or who were let go when federal contacts were cut.”

It should be mentioned that a significant reason that health care is booming is due to an aging population in the US, coupled with social assistance, a broad category that includes, social work, allied health and community based programs from local and state governments.

This has not quelled the worries of Main Street, as well as Wall Street, since uncertainty is the one thing that both do not like. How that bodes for the future is anyone’s guess since no one can determine with any certainty what the end game is for the Trump efforts, is it a negotiation tactic? If so, that does not seem evident, as we noted some months ago covering the “Liberation Day” announcement in the White House Rose Garden, and the placard showing tariff rates held aloft by the president, that most experts discounted as fanciful.

The intersection with the global community cannot be discounted as it affects not only consumer purchases, but in the larger scheme, foreign trade, underscoring the fact that no country can produce all goods,(and even services) domestically.

The fly on the wall, at least according to statements from Trump in his social media platform, “Truth Social” and statements from White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, is that he is upset with Chair Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve, and has labelled him as a “disaster” and nicknamed him “Too Late” in his refusal to drop interest rate, as the Chair has steadfastly tried to separate the bank’s behavior from politics.

Trump’s beliefs are also supported by Vice President JD Vance who seems not to understand the role that interest rates, and putting more money into the economy curtail, all tied to inflation; and, how when there is too much money in the economy, leading to inflation, higher rates cool the economy down, and when lowered are needed, to stimulate the economy.

The current rate of inflation, 2.3, does not indicate a need to lower interest rates.

In a note to clients, and reported by the Times, Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said this report was too strong to warrant the Feds to cut interest rates, and, “with the Feds laser focused on managing the risks to the inflation side of its mandate, today’s stronger than expected jobs report will do little to alter its patient approach.”

US Jobs hit a snag for October

In a surprise to most, Friday’s Jobs report released by the US Bureau of Labor gave a shockingly low figure of 12,000 non farm jobs created, but the caveat was that the low figure was faulted by hurricanes Milton and Helene and the Boeing strike. Despite that most economists and government officials state that the American economy is still solid. A truer picture will come in December with the release of the November report.

While there are still complains about high prices, especially at the grocery store, inflation has actually come down by 2,4 a steady decrease from 2.5 in September, but public sentiment is that it is still too high, perhaps forgetting that those pre pandemic prices are unlikely to come back; and, that once retailers and suppliers, confounded three years ago, by supply chain issues, and higher overhead saw consumers continue to shop, so they were unlikely to decrease their profit margins, even if they could do so.

The good news is that wages for October increased to 0.4 percent, making them higher than inflation, and correspondingly consumer spending remained high, the driver of the US economy.

NPR reported this: "You’re still seeing wages and salaries running ahead of inflation," says economist Sarah House at Wells Fargo. "So that’s still really beneficial for overall consumer spending growth and keeping it in the black.”

With the presidential election just around the corner and former president Donald Trump saying that he heard Americans and that the US single handedly bringing inflation down and restoring manufacturing jobs, while proposing a tariff that would increase consumer goods prices, a political conundrum exists.

VIce President Kamala Harris seems on surer ground with proposed efforts to prevent price gouging, but that might be a heavy lift without congressional support.

The Household Survey Data continue to show steady news: an unemployment rate little changed at 4.1 and the number of unemployed people at 7.0 million, great but perhaps not spectacular news for Harris, but neverthel;ess a solid number that the country can take pride in, Trump excepted.

Labor Force Participation those aged from 25 to 54 years old held a slight decrease from 83.8 percent to 83.5 percent,

Longterm unemployment remained at 1.6 million, little changed from the prior month. So, on an optimistic side, nothing lost, nothing gained, due to the storms and the Boeing layoff, but room for improvement, if not markedly so.

Temporary employment  took dramatic losses, since March of 2022, and steadily decreased for a few months, now reaching 49,000 for October.

Second to that significance was manufacturing which lost 46,000 jobs due to the decline of 44,000 in the manufacturing of transportation equipment from the machinist strike at Boeing.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve Bank at their meeting next week, and they are expecting, as planned, a quarter percentage point decrease in interest rates to keep the economy chugging.

April Jobs Report brings much needed cooling

High expectations met the reality of lowered numbers for the April Jobs report issued by the US Labor Dept. on Friday giving 175,000 non farm jobs versus the expected 240,000 that most economists and observers predicted, and while some may be disappointed at the news, it’s good news for the Federal Reserve Bank, especially after the end of their recent meeting, where the Federal Open Market Committee decided, in agreement with its chair Jerome Powell, as it gives them some optimism as they deal with higher inflation, from last month’s CPI report, and while it was not a significant climb, it was a claim nevertheless and creates a challenge for the central bank as they struggle to meet their twinned mandate of 2 % inflation, and full employment.

This cooling down might lead the Feds to cut rates, currently on hold for now at 5.3 %, but in what has been a seesaw of many reports, not to mention market reactions, in the not too distant past, many in government and the banking community predicted a recession, and pooh poohed even the very idea of a soft landing that both Powell and Secretary Treasurer Janet Yellen said was going to happen. The fact that there was no recession and that the soft landing in fact occurred shows the unpredictable, but steady, nature of the American economy, over the last 18 months.

“The slower jobs report will be welcome news to the Federal Reserve and signals that interest rate hikes are impacting a labor market that has been extremely resilient over the past few years,” said Joseph Gaffoglio, president of Mutual of America Capital Management to The Hill.

The good news is that despite all, the American economy being solid, the elephant in the room is, of, course, inflation, and after a severe 4th quarter reduction in 2023, and  some dwindling, it rose to 3.5% in March, from 3.2% In February..

“It’s not a bad economy; it’s still a healthy economy,” said Perc Pineda, chief economist at the Plastics Industry Association to The New York Times; “I think it’s part of the cycle. We cannot continue robust growth indefinitely considering the limits of our economy.”

Even with a moderation in wages, to 3/9 %,  they are still above inflationary prices creating a considerable drive in consumer spending, the driver of the US economy, but where does that money come from? As we have noted before, it's still the surplus of pandemic savings, but economists are concerned about what happens when that money runs out, and savings are depleted.

The devil is in the details as the old cliché states, and the heavy hitters, for April, are still showing remarkable strength, with an increase  in health care and education adding 95,000 new jobs, retail which had a shaky report in the 4th quarter of last year, now with a surfeit of 20,000 jobs; construction still resilient with 9,000 new jobs, which some are attributing to state and local building efforts, and manufacturing is holding steady by adding 8,000 jobs, and while leisure and hospitality are still gaining, but at a disappointing 5,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate inched up to 3.8% not a significant figure but, “Layoffs remained low and most job sectors appeared stable. Wage growth eased notably, though the unemployment rate remained under 4 percent for the 27th consecutive month — the longest stretch in more than 50 years. In fact, some economists said that the April data offered hopeful hints that the economy was headed toward a more stable footing, "reported the Times.

The GDP has increased, albeit slower than desired, at 1.6 annually, and has been attributed to regional challenges in finding a job, the durability of inflation, and those high interest rates that plague some consumers, but as noted, some are still spending freely.

The losers?  That catch all category of business services that showed a negative balance of 4,000, accompanied by a corresponding drop in temporary hires. And, this might be a cost factor since hiring costs have increased by 4.2 %, and were 2.9% in 2023.

One strong area of gains was for women, at prime working age, 25 to 54 years old, at 78 % or 307, 000 and while this is welcome news, there is still an income gap between those with men, and has deeply affected lower income women of color; and, child care, unsubsidized in the US, forces many women to work part time, leading to structural inequality.

Of course, the White House has looked at the report and is pleased, both with the cooling that could lead to future interest cuts, but that the slight uptick in unemployment is still showing a solid economy, and in fact the household telephone survey is nearly tied with this figure.

“Just 34 percent of voters approve of how President Biden has handled the economy, and 29 percent approve of his handling of inflation, according to a recent CNN poll, in their reporting, and “He’s also trailing former President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, who voters perceive would do a better job with the economy than Biden,” in their coverage for the April report. 

Meanwhile, as was noted, by the Times, “On Truth Social, Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, declared the report showed “HORRIBLE JOB NUMBERS.” Under Mr. Trump’s presidency, before the pandemic’s impact took hold in March 2020, monthly job gains averaged about 180,000 — just a tad higher than April’s gain.”

As the 2024 election season ramps up, so has scrutiny of the Fed and its interest rate policy, but the Federal Reserve maintains a traditional detachment from politics, and as Powell noted:

“If you go down that road, where do you stop? So, we’re not on that road. It just isn’t part of our thinking.”